Search results for: PREDICT score
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4233

Search results for: PREDICT score

3543 A New Developed Formula to Determine the Shear Buckling Stress in Welded Aluminum Plate Girders

Authors: Badr Alsulami, Ahmed S. Elamary

Abstract:

This paper summarizes and presents main results of an in-depth numerical analysis dealing with the shear buckling resistance of aluminum plate girders. The studies conducted have permitted the development of a simple design expression to determine the critical shear buckling stress in aluminum web panels. This expression takes into account the effects of reduction of strength in aluminum alloys due to the welding process. Ultimate shear resistance (USR) of plate girders can be obtained theoretically using Cardiff theory or Hӧglund’s theory. USR of aluminum alloy plate girders predicted theoretically using BS8118 appear inconsistent when compared with test data. Theoretical predictions based on Hӧglund’s theory, are more realistic. Cardiff theory proposed to predict the USR of steel plate girders only. Welded aluminum alloy plate girders studied experimentally by others; the USR resulted from tests are reviewed. Comparison between the test results with the values obtained from Hӧglund’s theory, BS8118 design method, and Cardiff theory performed theoretically. Finally, a new equation based on Cardiff tension-field theory proposed to predict theoretically the USR of aluminum plate girders.

Keywords: shear resistance, aluminum, Cardiff theory, Hӧglund's theory, plate girder

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3542 Internet of Things Edge Device Power Modelling and Optimization Simulator

Authors: Cian O'Shea, Ross O'Halloran, Peter Haigh

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are Internet of Things (IoT) edge devices. They are becoming widely adopted in many industries, including health care, building energy management, and conditional monitoring. As the scale of WSN deployments increases, the cost and complexity of battery replacement and disposal become more significant and in time may become a barrier to adoption. Harvesting ambient energies provide a pathway to reducing dependence on batteries and in the future may lead to autonomously powered sensors. This work describes a simulation tool that enables the user to predict the battery life of a wireless sensor that utilizes energy harvesting to supplement the battery power. To create this simulator, all aspects of a typical WSN edge device were modelled including, sensors, transceiver, and microcontroller as well as the energy source components (batteries, solar cells, thermoelectric generators (TEG), supercapacitors and DC/DC converters). The tool allows the user to plug and play different pre characterized devices as well as add user-defined devices. The goal of this simulation tool is to predict the lifetime of a device and scope for extension using ambient energy sources.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Network, IoT, edge device, simulation, solar cells, TEG, supercapacitor, energy harvesting

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3541 Comparison of Nutritional Status and Tendency of Depression and Orthorexia Nervosa in Vegan Vegetarian and Omnivorous

Authors: E. Yeşil, M. Özgök, M. Özdemir, B. Köse

Abstract:

The aim of the present study was to compare nutritional status, tendency of depression and orthorexia nervosa in vegan, vegetarian and omnivorous. The sample consisted of 150 individuals (126 women, 24 men) who agreed to participate in the study between February and May of the year 2018. Fifty vegan, fifty vegetarian and fifty omnivore diet pattern were compared. In the first part, each participant was interviewed using a structured questionnaire to obtain demographic information about education, occupation and health conditions. In the second part Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) was used. In the third part ORTO-11 was used. In the fourth part, 24 Hours Dietary Record was used in order to determine the nutritional status of individuals. The vegans and vegetarians were interviewed about their diets. The mean body mass index of the vegan, vegetarian and omnivore were, 21,24 ± 3,25; 22,2 ± 4,1 and 22,8 ± 4,3 respectively (p > 0,05). The daily energy intakes of the vegan, vegetarian and omnivore diet were 1792,57 ± 784,8 kcal; 1691,9 ± 742,2 kcal and 1697,9 ± 695,6 kcal (p > 0.05). The mean BDI of the vegan, vegetarian and omnivore diet were 6,2 ± 6,2, 9,8 ± 10,1 and 8,8 ± 8,1, respectively (p > 0,05). The mean ORTO-11 of the vegan, vegetarian and omnivore diet were 25,9 ± 4,2, 27,2 ± 5,9 and 26,4 ± 5,3 (p > 0,05). There was a statistically significant correlation between BDI and ORTO-11 in vegan diet group (p: 0,01 r: 0,333). There was a positive correlation between BMI and BDI in the vegetarian group (p: 0,01 r: 0,363). Also in the vegetarian group; there was a negative correlation between age and ORTO-11 (p: 0,01 r: -0,316). A statistically significant negative correlation was found between waist circumference and ORTO-11 (p: 0,05 r: -0,316) in the omnivore diet group. Also there was a negative correlation between age and BDI (p: 0,05 r: -0,338) in this group. As a conclusion, positive correlation was found between BDI and ORTO-11 score of vegan participants. There were no differences between three groups in BDI or ORTO-11 score.

Keywords: depression, orthorexia nervosa, vegan, vegetarian

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3540 Survey of Methods for Solutions of Spatial Covariance Structures and Their Limitations

Authors: Joseph Thomas Eghwerido, Julian I. Mbegbu

Abstract:

In modelling environment processes, we apply multidisciplinary knowledge to explain, explore and predict the Earth's response to natural human-induced environmental changes. Thus, the analysis of spatial-time ecological and environmental studies, the spatial parameters of interest are always heterogeneous. This often negates the assumption of stationarity. Hence, the dispersion of the transportation of atmospheric pollutants, landscape or topographic effect, weather patterns depends on a good estimate of spatial covariance. The generalized linear mixed model, although linear in the expected value parameters, its likelihood varies nonlinearly as a function of the covariance parameters. As a consequence, computing estimates for a linear mixed model requires the iterative solution of a system of simultaneous nonlinear equations. In other to predict the variables at unsampled locations, we need to know the estimate of the present sampled variables. The geostatistical methods for solving this spatial problem assume covariance stationarity (locally defined covariance) and uniform in space; which is not apparently valid because spatial processes often exhibit nonstationary covariance. Hence, they have globally defined covariance. We shall consider different existing methods of solutions of spatial covariance of a space-time processes at unsampled locations. This stationary covariance changes with locations for multiple time set with some asymptotic properties.

Keywords: parametric, nonstationary, Kernel, Kriging

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3539 Next Generation Radiation Risk Assessment and Prediction Tools Generation Applying AI-Machine (Deep) Learning Algorithms

Authors: Selim M. Khan

Abstract:

Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

Procedia PDF Downloads 87
3538 High Pressure Multiphase Flow Experiments: The Impact of Pressure on Flow Patterns Using an X-Ray Tomography Visualisation System

Authors: Sandy Black, Calum McLaughlin, Alessandro Pranzitelli, Marc Laing

Abstract:

Multiphase flow structures of two-phase multicomponent fluids were experimentally investigated in a large diameter high-pressure pipeline up to 130 bar at TÜV SÜD’s National Engineering Laboratory Advanced Multiphase Facility. One of the main objectives of the experimental test campaign was to evaluate the impact of pressure on multiphase flow patterns as much of the existing information is based on low-pressure measurements. The experiments were performed in a horizontal and vertical orientation in both 4-inch and 6-inch pipework using nitrogen, ExxsolTM D140 oil, and a 6% aqueous solution of NaCl at incremental pressures from 10 bar to 130 bar. To visualise the detailed structure of the flow of the entire cross-section of the pipe, a fast response X-ray tomography system was used. A wide range of superficial velocities from 0.6 m/s to 24.0 m/s for gas and 0.04 m/s and 6.48 m/s for liquid was examined to evaluate different flow regimes. The results illustrated the suppression of instabilities between the gas and the liquid at the measurement location and that intermittent or slug flow was observed less frequently as the pressure was increased. CFD modellings of low and high-pressure simulations were able to successfully predict the likelihood of intermittent flow; however, further tuning is necessary to predict the slugging frequency. The dataset generated is unique as limited datasets exist above 100 bar and is of considerable value to multiphase flow specialists and numerical modellers.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, high pressure, multiphase, X-ray tomography

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
3537 Comparing Student Performance on Paper-Based versus Computer-Based Formats of Standardized Tests

Authors: Jin Koo

Abstract:

During the coronavirus pandemic, there has been a further increasing demand for computer-based tests (CBT), and now it has become an important test mode. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the comparability of student scores obtained from computerized-based formats of a standardized test in the two subject areas of reading and mathematics. Also, this study investigates whether there is an interaction effect between test modes of CBT and paper-based tests (PBT) and gender/ability level in each subject area. The test used in this study is a multiple-choice standardized test for students in grades 8-11. For this study, data were collected during four test administrations: 2015-16, 2017-18, and 2020-21. This research used a one-factor between-subjects ANOVA to compute the PBT and CBT groups’ test means for each subject area (reading and mathematics). Also, 2-factor between-subjects ANOVAs were conducted to investigate examinee characteristics: gender (male and female), ethnicity (African-American, Asian, Hispanic, multi-racial, and White), and ability level (low, average, and high-ability groups). The author found that students’ test scores in the two subject areas varied across CBT and PBT by gender and ability level, meaning that gender, ethnicity, and ability level were related to the score difference. These results will be discussed according to the current testing systems. In addition, this study’s results will open up to school teachers and test developers the possible influence that gender, ethnicity, and ability level have on a student’s score based on whether they take the CBT or PBT.

Keywords: ability level, computer-based, gender, paper-based, test

Procedia PDF Downloads 93
3536 A Medical Vulnerability Scoring System Incorporating Health and Data Sensitivity Metrics

Authors: Nadir A. Carreon, Christa Sonderer, Aakarsh Rao, Roman Lysecky

Abstract:

With the advent of complex software and increased connectivity, the security of life-critical medical devices is becoming an increasing concern, particularly with their direct impact on human safety. Security is essential, but it is impossible to develop completely secure and impenetrable systems at design time. Therefore, it is important to assess the potential impact on the security and safety of exploiting a vulnerability in such critical medical systems. The common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) calculates the severity of exploitable vulnerabilities. However, for medical devices it does not consider the unique challenges of impacts to human health and privacy. Thus, the scoring of a medical device on which human life depends (e.g., pacemakers, insulin pumps) can score very low, while a system on which human life does not depend (e.g., hospital archiving systems) might score very high. In this paper, we propose a medical vulnerability scoring system (MVSS) that extends CVSS to address the health and privacy concerns of medical devices. We propose incorporating two new parameters, namely health impact, and sensitivity impact. Sensitivity refers to the type of information that can be stolen from the device, and health represents the impact on the safety of the patient if the vulnerability is exploited (e.g., potential harm, life-threatening). We evaluate fifteen different known vulnerabilities in medical devices and compare MVSS against two state-of-the-art medical device-oriented vulnerability scoring systems and the foundational CVSS.

Keywords: common vulnerability system, medical devices, medical device security, vulnerabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
3535 Smartphone Addiction and Reaction Time in Geriatric Population

Authors: Anjali N. Shete, G. D. Mahajan, Nanda Somwanshi

Abstract:

Context: Smartphones are the new generation of mobile phones; they have emerged over the last few years. Technology has developed so much that it has become part of our life and mobile phones are one of them. These smartphones are equipped with the capabilities to display photos, play games, watch videos and navigation, etc. The advances have a huge impact on many walks of life. The adoption of new technology has been challenging for the elderly. But, the elder population is also moving towards digitally connected lives. As age advances, there is a decline in the motor and cognitive functions of the brain, and hence the reaction time is affected. The study was undertaken to assess the usefulness of smartphones in improving cognitive functions. Aims and Objectives: The aim of the study was to observe the effects of smartphone addiction on reaction time in elderly population Material and Methods: This is an experimental study. 100 elderly subjects were enrolled in this study randomly from urban areas. They all were using smartphones for several hours a day. They were divided into two groups according to the scores of the mobile phone addiction scale (MPAS). Simple reaction time was estimated by the Ruler drop method. The reaction time was then calculated for each subject in both groups. The data were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, and Pearson correlation test. Results: The mean reaction time in Group A is 0.27+ 0.040 and in Group B is 0.20 + 0.032. The values show a statistically significant change in reaction time. Conclusion: Group A with a high MPAS score has a low reaction time compared to Group B with a low MPAS score. Hence, it can be concluded that the use of smartphones in the elderly is useful, delaying the neurological decline, and smarten the brain.

Keywords: smartphones, MPAS, reaction time, elderly population

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3534 Impacts of Nomophobia on Daily Performance: Validity, Reliability and Prevalence Estimates among Undergraduate Dental Students in Bhubaneswar, India

Authors: Ramesh Nagarajappa, Upasana Mohapatra

Abstract:

Considered a modern phobia, Nomophobia (NO MObile PHOne PhoBIA) is a term that describes the irrational fear or anxiety of being unable to access one’s own mobile phone. Objectives: To develop and validate the nomophobia questionnaire, administering it to a sample of adolescents representing undergraduate dental students. To assess the prevalence of Nomophobia, determine the usage pattern of mobile phones, and evaluate the impact due to lack of access to mobile phones among undergraduate dental students. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 302 undergraduate students at Bhubaneswar through a self-administered questionnaire via Google Forms consisting of 19 items evaluating the pattern and anxiety related to usage of mobile phones. Responses were recorded on a 5-point Likert scale. Kruskal Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, and Chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis. Results: Test-Retest reliability showed kappa of k=0.86 and Internal consistency Chronbach’s-Alpha to be α=0.82. Prevalence of nomophobia (score ≥ 58) was 32.1%, and students at risk of being nomophobic (score 39-57) was 61.9%. It was highest in males (32.6%) and amongst the interns (41.9%) and lowest (25.5%) amongst the second-year students. Participants felt nervous/insecure if their phones were away from them because of the fear that somebody might have accessed their data (3.07±1.93) and or tried to contact them (3.09±1.13), which were not statistically significant (p>0.05). Conclusions: Effect of mobile phone on dental students and the fear of not having their phones with them is increasing elaborately, that needs to be controlled, which if not achieved, would negatively hamper their academic performance and their being in the society.

Keywords: addiction, dental students, mobile phone, nomophobia

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
3533 Development of Fuzzy Logic and Neuro-Fuzzy Surface Roughness Prediction Systems Coupled with Cutting Current in Milling Operation

Authors: Joseph C. Chen, Venkata Mohan Kudapa

Abstract:

Development of two real-time surface roughness (Ra) prediction systems for milling operations was attempted. The systems used not only cutting parameters, such as feed rate and spindle speed, but also the cutting current generated and corrected by a clamp type energy sensor. Two different approaches were developed. First, a fuzzy inference system (FIS), in which the fuzzy logic rules are generated by experts in the milling processes, was used to conduct prediction modeling using current cutting data. Second, a neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) was explored. Neuro-fuzzy systems are adaptive techniques in which data are collected on the network, processed, and rules are generated by the system. The inference system then uses these rules to predict Ra as the output. Experimental results showed that the parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, and input current variation could predict Ra. These two systems enable the prediction of Ra during the milling operation with an average of 91.83% and 94.48% accuracy by FIS and ANFIS systems, respectively. Statistically, the ANFIS system provided better prediction accuracy than that of the FIS system.

Keywords: surface roughness, input current, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy, milling operations

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3532 Mini-Open Repair Using Ring Forceps Show Similar Results to Repair Using Achillon Device in Acute Achilles Tendon Rupture

Authors: Chul Hyun Park

Abstract:

Background:Repair using the Achillon deviceis a representative mini-open repair technique;however, the limitations of this technique includethe need for special instruments and decreasedrepair strength.A modifiedmini-open repair using ring forcepsmight overcome these limitations. Purpose:This study was performed to compare the Achillon device with ring forceps in mini-open repairsof acute Achilles tendon rupture. Study Design:This was a retrospective cohort study, and the level of evidence was3. Methods:Fifty patients (41 men and 9 women), withacute Achilles tendon rupture on one foot, were consecutively treated using mini-open repair techniques. The first 20 patients were treated using the Achillon device (Achillon group) and the subsequent 30 patients were treated using a ring forceps (Forcep group). Clinical, functional, and isokinetic results,and postoperative complications were compared between the two groups at the last follow-up. Clinical evaluations wereperformed using the American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) score, Achilles tendon Total Rupture Score (ATRS), length of incision, and operation time. Functional evaluationsincludedactive range of motion (ROM) of the ankle joint, maximum calf circumference (MCC), hopping test, and single limb heel-rise (SLHR) test. Isokinetic evaluations were performed using the isokinetic test for ankle plantar flexion. Results:The AOFAS score (p=0.669), ATRS (p=0.753), and length of incision (p=0.305) were not significantly different between the groups. Operative times in the Achillon group were significantly shorter than that in the Forcep group (p<0.001).The maximum height of SLHR (p=0.023) and number of SLHRs (p=0.045) in the Forcep group were significantly greater than that in the Achillon group. No significant differences in the mean peak torques for plantar flexion at angular speeds of 30°/s (p=0.219) and 120°/s (p=0.656) were detected between the groups. There was no significant difference in the occurrence of postoperative complications between the groups (p=0.093). Conclusion:The ring forceps technique is comparable with the Achillon technique with respect to clinical, functional, and isokinetic results and the postoperative complications. Given that no special instrument is required, the ring forceps technique could be a better option for acute Achilles tendon rupture repair.

Keywords: achilles tendon, acute rupture, repair, mini-open

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3531 Change of Bone Density with Treatments of Intravenous Zoledronic Acid in Patients with Osteoporotic Distal Radial Fractures

Authors: Hong Je Kang, Young Chae Choi, Jin Sung Park, Isac Kim

Abstract:

Purpose: Osteoporotic fractures are an important among postmenopausal women. When osteoporotic distal radial fractures occur, osteoporosis must be treated to prevent the hip and spine fractures. Intravenous injection of Zoledronic acid is expected to improve preventing osteoporotic fractures. Many articles reported the effect of intravenous Zoledronic acid to BMD of the hip and spine fracture or non-fracture patients with low BMD. However, that with distal radial fractures has rarely been reported. Therefore, the authors decided to study the effect of Zoledronic acid in BMD score, bone union, and bone turnover markers in the patients who underwent volar plating due to osteoporotic distal radial fractures. Materials: From April 2018 to May 2022, postmenopausal women aged 55 years or older who had osteoporotic distal radial fractures and who underwent surgical treatment using volar plate fixation were included. Zoledronic acid (5mg) was injected intravenously between 3 and 5 days after surgery. BMD scores after 1 year of operation were compared with the initial scores. Bone turnover markers were measured before surgery, after 3 months, and after 1 year. Radiological follow-up was performed every 2 weeks until the bone union and at 1 year postoperatively. Clinical outcome indicators were measured one year after surgery, and the occurrence of side effects was observed. Result: Total of 23 patients were included, with a lumbar BMD T score of -2.89±0.2 before surgery to -2.27±0.3 one year after surgery (p=0.012) and a femoral neck BMD T score of -2.45±0.3 before surgery to -2.36±0.3 (p=0.041) after one year, and all were statistically significant. Measured as bone resorption markers, serum CTX-1 was 337.43±10.4 pg/mL before surgery, 160.86±8.7 pg/mL (p=0.022) after three months, and 250.12±12.7 pg/mL (p=0.031) after one year. Urinary NTX-1 was 39.24±2.2 ng/mL before surgery, 24.46±1.2 ng/mL (p=0.014) after three months and 30.35±1.6 ng/mL (p=0.042) after one year. Measured as bone formation markers, serum osteocalcin was 13.04±1.1 ng/mL before surgery, 8.84±0.7 ng/mL (p=0.037) after 3 months and 11.1±0.4 ng/mL (p=0.026) after one year. Serum bone-specific ALP was 11.24±0.9 IU/L before surgery, 8.25±0.9 IU/L (p=0.036) after three months, and 10.2±0.9 IU/L (p=0.027) after one year. All were statistically significant. All cases showed bone union within an average of 6.91±0.3 weeks without any signs of failure. Complications were found in 5 out of 23 cases (21.7%), such as headache, nausea, muscle pain, and fever. Conclusion: When Zoledronic acid was used, BMD was improved in both the spine and femoral neck. This may reduce the likelihood and subsequent morbidity of additional osteoporotic fractures. This study is meaningful in that there was no difference in the duration of bone union and radiological characteristics in patients with distal radial fractures administrated with intravenous BP early after the fractures, and improvement in BMD and bone turnover indicators was measured.

Keywords: zeoldreonic acid, BMD, osteoporosis, distal radius

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3530 Assessment of Hamstring, Lower Back and Upper Body Flexibility in War Disabled Individuals in Sri Lanka North and East Region

Authors: Esther Liyanage, Indrajith Liyanage, A. A. J. Rajaratne

Abstract:

During the 30 year civil war in Sri Lanka, a large number of individuals were injured and disabled. These disabilities have reduced their daily physical activities which may cause reduction in flexibility of upper limb, shoulder girdle, lower back and lower limb. Muscle flexibility is important for a healthy lifestyle. The main objective of the study was to assess the upper limb, shoulder girdle and lower back, hamstring flexibility of the intact lower limb in disabled individuals in the North and Eastern parts of Sri Lanka. Back saver sits and reach test and shoulder scratch test described in FITNESS GRAM was used in the study. A total of 125 disabled soldiers with lower limb disabilities were recruited for the study. Flexibility of the lower back and hamstring muscles of uninjured lower limb was measured using back saver sit and reach test described by Wells and Dillon (1952). Upper limb and shoulder girdle flexibility was assessed using shoulder stretch test. Score 0-3 was given according to the ability to reach Superior medial angle of the opposite scapula, top of the head or the mouth. The results indicate that 31 (24.8%) disabled soldiers have lower limb flexibility less than 8, 2 (1.6 % ) have flexibility of 8, 2 (1.6 %) have flexibility of 8.5, 11 ( 8.8% ) have flexibility of 9, 14 (11.2 %) have flexibility of 9.5, 23 (18.4 %) have flexibility of 10, 17 (13.6 %) have 10.5 flexibility, 13 (10.4%) have 11 flexibility, 2 (1.6%) have 11.5 flexibility, 10 (8 %) have flexibility of 12 and 3 (2.34 %) have flexibility of 12.5. Six disabled soldiers (4.8%) have upper limb flexibility of 2 and remaining 95.2% have normal upper limb flexibility (score 3). A reduction in the flexibility of muscles in lower body and lower limbs was seen in 25% disabled soldiers which could be due to reduction in their daily physical activities.

Keywords: disability, flexibility, rehabilitation, quality of life

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3529 Development of Creatively Integrated Teaching Skills Using Information and Communication Technology for Professional Teacher

Authors: Siwanit Autthawuttikul, Prakob Koraneekid, Sayamon Insa-ard

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The purposes of this research were to development creatively integrated teaching skills using Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for professional teacher in schools under the education area of the basic education commission, ministry of education both schools under the office of primary education and those under The office of secondary education in eight western region provinces of Thailand. This is useful in defining a vision for the school strategy and restructuring schools in addition, teachers will have developed skills in teaching creative integrated ICT. The research methodology comprises quantitative and qualitative data collection. The Baseline Survey, focus group for discussions and then the model was developed creatively integrated teaching skills using ICT. The findings showed that 7 elements were important: (1) Academy Transformation (2) Information Technology Infrastructure (3) Personal Development (4) Supervision, Monitoring and Evaluation (5) Motivating and Rewarding (6) Important factor affecting the success of teaching integrated with ICT were knowledge, skills, attitudes and (7) The role of the individual concerned. The comparison creatively integrated teaching skills before and after participating in the overall shows that the average creatively integrated teaching skills using ICT after attending the event is 3.27, and standard deviation was 0.56, higher than before which is 2.60 and the standard deviation was 0.56. There are significant differences significant statistically level of .05. The final average score of the evaluation plan design creatively integrated teaching skills using ICT teachers' average score was 26.94 at the high levels.

Keywords: integrated curriculum, information and communications technology, teachers in the western region, schools

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3528 Health Behaviors Related to Preventing Disease of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease of Child Caregivers in Child Development Center Ubon Ratchathani Province, Thailand

Authors: Comsun Thongchai, Vorapoj Promasatayaprot

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Background: Child development center is a day care center that gathers large numbers of children in the same areas. As a result, it provides high opportunity for infection, especially gastrointestinal and respiratory infections. Ubon Ratchathani has been a province with an increasing number of cases of Hand foot and mouth disease each year reported between 2014 and 2016. Accorded to a recent investigation reported, HFMD occurred in the Child Development Center and kindergartens, this was a place where HFMD spreads. This research was aimed to investigate the knowledge, attitude and behavior about hand foot and mouth disease preventing of child caregivers in child development centers, Ubon Ratchathani Province. Method: Descriptive study was conducted between April and July, 2017. The study instruments used questionnaires and in-depth interviews on their practices of prevention and environment management of HFMD. The samples of survey questionnaires were caregivers who are working in 160 child development centers of the 160 parishes in Ubon Ratchathani province. The data was analyzed by percentages, means and standard deviations and Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient. Result: The results showed that the majority were female (96.3%), average age 41 years (68.3%), marital status were couples (85.7%) and studied in undergraduate (75.2%). with a period of performance as teachers in child development centers range from 10 to 14 years were percentage 58.7 and 71.8 percent of them had been trained by health worker about the control HFMD. The knowledge for preventive in hand foot mouth disease on child caregivers was at high level. The mean score was 2.76 (S.D. = 0.114). The attitude of child caregivers was at a moderate level. Its mean score was 2.28 (S.D. = 0.247). On the other hand, the level of environmental management to prevent HFMD was low. The mean score was 1.34 (S.D. = 0.215). The factor of personal characteristics as gender, age, educational level, duration at work, knowledge and attitude of preventive HFMD was associated with Preventive of Behaviors to a statistically significant level (p<0.05 respectively). Conclusion: These results should be concerned to develop knowledge and improving practice for preventive hand foot mouth disease of child caregivers in child development centers by training. Preparation of media education, Surveillance of hand foot mouth disease and health behaviors promotion with community participation need to be supported continuously.

Keywords: preventive behavior, child development center, hand foot mouth disease, Thailand

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3527 Remote Sensing Approach to Predict the Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Urban Thermal Comfort Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Ahmad E. Aldousaria, Abdulla Al Kafy

Abstract:

Urbanization is an incessant process that involves the transformation of land use/land cover (LULC), resulting in a reduction of cool land covers and thermal comfort zones (TCZs). This study explores the directional shrinkage of TCZs in Kuwait using Landsat satellite data from 1991 – 2021 to predict the future LULC and TCZ distribution for 2026 and 2031 using cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. Analysis revealed a rapid urban expansion (40 %) in SE, NE, and NW directions and TCZ shrinkage in N – NW and SW directions with 25 % of the very uncomfortable area. The predicted result showed an urban area increase from 44 % in 2021 to 47 % and 52 % in 2026 and 2031, respectively, where uncomfortable zones were found to be concentrated around urban areas and bare lands in N – NE and N – NW directions. This study proposes an effective and sustainable framework to control TCZ shrinkage, including zero soil policies, planned landscape design, manmade water bodies, and rooftop gardens. This study will help urban planners and policymakers to make Kuwait an eco–friendly, functional, and sustainable country.

Keywords: land cover change, thermal environment, green cover loss, machine learning, remote sensing

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3526 Effect of Bariatric Surgery on Metabolic Syndrome, Framingham Risk Score and Thyroid Function

Authors: Nuha Alamro

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Besides achieving of weight loss, Bariatric surgery (BS) shown metabolic improvement including reduction of cardiovascular disease, insulin resistance and diabetes. This study aimed to measure BS effects on Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) among patients who underwent BS. Additionally, to determine the effect of BS on TSH among euthyroid obese patients. A Retrospective follow-up study was conducted in King Abdullah Medical City. A total of 160 participants who underwent BS and completed one year of follow ups. Medical history, biochemical, anthropometric, and hormonal parameters were evaluated at baseline and 3-12 months after BS. International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria were used to diagnose MetS pre and postoperative. The mean age of participants was 41.9 ± 10.6 with Body Mass Index (BMI) of 48.8 ± 7.3. After 3 months, Systolic, Diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), glycated haemoglobin (HBA1C), Low-density lipoprotein (LDL), cholesterol, triglycerides and Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) were significantly decrease (P < 0.001). Significant decrease was seen in Mets, BMI, FRS, SBP, DBP, HBA1C, LDL, triglycerides, cholesterol, liver enzyme, with significant increase in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) level 12 months post-op (P < 0.001). After 1 year, the prevalence of MetS, DM, HTN, FRS were significantly decrease from 72.5%, 43.1%, 78.1%, 11.4 to 16.3%, 9.4%, 22.5% and 5.4, respectively. Besides achieving substantial weight loss, MetS resolution was linked to improvement in cardiovascular risk profile.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome, thyroid stimulating hormone

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3525 Traffic Analysis and Prediction Using Closed-Circuit Television Systems

Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

Abstract:

Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 95
3524 The Relationship between Job Stress and Handover Effectiveness of Nurses

Authors: Rujnan Tuna, Ayse Cil Akinci

Abstract:

Work life takes up an important place in human life, and an employed person faces many stimuli from internal and external environments and is affected by them in a positive or negative way. Also, the handover process, which is the process of sharing information about the patient with other health professionals, is an important criterion to maintain patient care and enhance the quality of care provided. Handover is a key component for sustaining daily basic clinical practices and is also essential to maintain the safe patient care. This investigation followed a descriptive and correlation design in order to establish job stress and the handover efficiency of nurses and the relationship in between. The study was conducted with 192 nurses working in a public hospital in Istanbul between January and March 2017. Descriptive information form, Job Stressors Scale, and Handover Evaluation Scale were used to collect the data of the study. The data were analyzed by using IBM SPSS Statistics 22.0 statistical software. Approvals from participants, managers of institution, and ethics committee were taken for the study. As a result of the research, it was found that job stress was above the median value, and the highest score in the ‘work role conflict’ subdimension. Also, it was found that the effectiveness of the nurses' handover effectiviness was above the median value and the highest score in the ‘quality of information’ subdimension. In the study, there was a negatively weak correlation between ‘work role overload’ subdimension of Job Stressors Scale and ‘interaction and support’ subdimension of Handover Evaluation Scale. There is a need for further study in order to maintain patient safety.

Keywords: handover, job stress, nurse, patient

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
3523 Effect of Ausubel's Advance Organizer Model to Enhancing Meta-Cognition of Students at Secondary Level

Authors: Qaisara Parveen, M. Imran Yousuf

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to find the effectiveness of the use of advance organizer model for enhancing meta-cognition of students in the subject of science. It was hypothesized that the students of experimental group taught through advance organizer model would show the better cognition than the students of control group taught through traditional teaching. The population of the study consisted of all secondary school students studying in government high school located in Rawalpindi. The sample of the study consisted of 50 students of 9th class of humanities group. The sample was selected on the basis of their pretest scores through matching, and the groups were randomly assigned for the treatment. The experimental group was taught through advance organizer model while the control group was taught through traditional teaching. The self-developed achievement test was used for the purpose of pretest and posttest. After collecting the pre-test score and post-test score, the data was analyzed and interpreted by use of descriptive statistics as mean and standard deviation and inferential statistics t-test. The findings indicate that students taught using advance organizers had a higher level of meta-cognition as compared to control group. Further, meta cognition level of boys was found higher than that of girls students. This study also revealed the fact that though the students at different meta-cognition level approached learning situations in a different manner, Advance organizer model is far superior to Traditional method of teaching.

Keywords: descriptive, experimental, humanities, meta-cognition, statistics, science

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3522 Association between Organophosphate Pesticides Exposure and Cognitive Behavior in Taipei Children

Authors: Meng-Ying Chiu, Yu-Fang Huang, Pei-Wei Wang, Yi-Ru Wang, Yi-Shuan Shao, Mei-Lien Chen

Abstract:

Background: Organophosphate pesticides (OPs) are the most heavily used pesticides in agriculture in Taiwan. Therefore, they are commonly detected in general public including pregnant women and children. These compounds are proven endocrine disrupters that may affect the neural development in humans. The aim of this study is to assess the OPs exposure of children in 2 years of age and to examine the association between the exposure concentrations and neurodevelopmental effects in children. Methods: In a prospective cohort of 280 mother-child pairs, urine samples of prenatal and postnatal were collected from each participant and analyzed for metabolites of OPs by using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Six analytes were measured including dimethylphosphate (DMP), dimethylthiophosphate (DMTP), dimethyldithiophosphate (DMDTP), diethylphosphate (DEP), diethylthiophosphate (DETP), and diethyldithiophosphate (DEDTP). This study created a combined concentration measure for dimethyl compounds (DMs) consisting of the three dimethyl metabolites (DMP, DMTP, and DMDTP), for diethyl compounds (DEs) consisting of the three diethyl metabolites (DEP, DETP, and DEDTP) and six dialkyl phosphate (DAPs). The Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (Bayley-III) was used to assess children's cognitive behavior at 2 years old. The association between OPs exposure and Bayley-III scale score was determined by using the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: The measurements of urine samples are still on-going. This preliminary data are the report of 56 children aged 2 from the cohort. The detection rates for DMP, DMTP, DMDTP, DEP, DETP, and DEDTP are 80.4%, 69.6%, 64.3%, 64.3%, 62.5%, and 75%, respectively. After adjusting the creatinine concentrations of urine, the median (nmol/g creatinine) of urinary DMP, DMTP, DMDTP, DEP, DETP, DEDTP, DMs, DEs, and DAPs are 153.14, 53.32, 52.13, 19.24, 141.65, 192.17, 308.8, 311.6, and 702.11, respectively. The concentrations of urine are considerably higher than that in other countries. Children’s cognitive behavior was used three scales for Bayley-III, including cognitive, language and motor. In Mann-Whitney U test, the higher levels of DEs had significantly lower motor score (p=0.037), but no significant association was found between the OPs exposure levels and the score of either cognitive or language. Conclusion: The limited sample size suggests that Taipei children are commonly exposed to OPs and OPs exposure might affect the cognitive behavior of young children. This report will present more data to verify the results. The predictors of OPs concentrations, such as dietary pattern will also be included.

Keywords: biomonitoring, children, neurodevelopment, organophosphate pesticides exposure

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3521 Surveying the Effects of Online Learning On High School Student’s Motivation: A Case Study of Pinewood School

Authors: Robert Cui

Abstract:

COVID-19 has drastically changed the way students interact and engage with their environments. Students, in particular, have been forced to change from in-person to online learning. How can we ensure that students continue to remain motivated even as their mode of education transitions to online learning? In this study conducted on high school students from a small private school (n = 50), we investigate the factors that predict student motivation during online learning. Using the framework of self-determination theory, we examine the three facets of student motivation during online learning: engagement, autonomy, and competence. We find that students' perception of their peers' engagement with the curriculum, feelings of parental academic expectations, perceptions of favoritism by the teacher, and perceived clarity of instruction given by the teacher all predict student engagement in online learning. Student autonomy is predicted by the amount of parental control a student feels, the clarity of instruction given by the teacher, and also the amount to which a student is perceiving their peers to be paying attention. Finally, competence is predicted by favoritism a student perceives from a teacher and also the amount of which a student is perceiving their peers to be paying attention. Based on these findings, we provide insights on how three important stakeholders –parents, teachers, and peers can enhance students' motivation during online learning.

Keywords: academic performance, motivation, online learning, parental influence, teacher, peers

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
3520 In-silico Antimicrobial Activity of Bioactive Compounds of Ricinus communis against DNA Gyrase of Staphylococcus aureus as Molecular Target

Authors: S. Rajeswari

Abstract:

Medicinal Plant extracts and their bioactive compounds have been used for antimicrobial activities and have significant remedial properties. In the recent years, a wide range of investigations have been carried out throughout the world to confirm antimicrobial properties of different medicinally important plants. A number of plants showed efficient antimicrobial activities, which were comparable to that of synthetic standard drugs or antimicrobial agents. The large family Euphorbiaceae contains nearly about 300 genera and 7,500 speciesand one among is Ricinus communis or castor plant which has high traditional and medicinal value for disease free healthy life. Traditionally the plant is used as laxative, purgative, fertilizer and fungicide etc. whereas the plant possess beneficial effects such as anti-oxidant, antihistamine, antinociceptive, antiasthmatic, antiulcer, immunomodulatory anti diabetic, hepatoprotective, anti inflammatory, antimicrobial, and many other medicinal properties. This activity of the plant possess due to the important phytochemical constituents like flavonoids, saponins, glycosides, alkaloids and steroids. The presents study includes the phytochemical properties of Ricinus communis and to prediction of the anti-microbial activity of Ricinus communis using DNA gyrase of Staphylococcus aureus as molecular target. Docking results of varies chemicals compounds of Ricinus communis against DNA gyrase of Staphylococcus aureus by maestro 9.8 of Schrodinger show that the phytochemicals are effective against the target protein DNA gyrase. our studies suggest that the phytochemical from Ricinus communis such has INDICAN (G.Score 4.98) and SUPLOPIN-2(G.Score 5.74) can be used as lead molecule against Staphylococcus infections.

Keywords: euphorbiaceae, antimicrobial activity, Ricinus communis, Staphylococcus aureus

Procedia PDF Downloads 474
3519 Knowledge and Preventive Practice of Occupational Health Hazards among Nurses Working in Various Hospitals in Kathmandu

Authors: Sabita Karki

Abstract:

Occupational health hazards are recognized as global problems for health care workers, it is quiet high in developing countries. It is increasing day by day due to change in science and technology. This study aimed to assess the knowledge and practice of occupational health hazards among the nurses. A descriptive, cross sectional study was carried out among 339 nurses working in three different teaching hospitals of the Kathmandu from February 28, 2016 to March 28, 2016. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data. The study findings revealed that out of 339 samples of all 80.5% were below 30 years; 51.6% were married; 57.5% were graduates and above; 91.4% respondents were working as staff nurse; 56.9% were working in general ward; 56.9% have work experience of 1 to 5 years; 79.1% respondents were immunized against HBV; only 8.6% have received training/ in-service education related to OHH and 35.4% respondents have experienced health hazards. The mean knowledge score was 26.7 (SD=7.3). The level of knowledge of occupational health hazards among the nurses was 68.1% (adequate knowledge). The knowledge was statistically significant with education OR = 0.288, CI: 0.17-0.46 and p value 0.00 and immunization against HBV OR= 1.762, CI: 0.97-0.17 and p value 0.05. The mean practice score was 7.6 (SD= 3.1). The level of practice on prevention of OHH was 74.6% (poor practice). The practice was statistically significant with age having OR=0.47, CI: 0.26-0.83 and p value 0.01; designation OR= 0.32, CI: 0.14-0.70 and p value 0.004; working department OR=0.61, CI: 0.36-1.02 and p value 0.05; work experience OR=0.562, CI: 0.33-0.94 and p value 0.02; previous in-service education/ training OR=2.25; CI: 1.02-4.92 and p value 0.04. There was no association between knowledge and practice on prevention of occupational health hazards which is not statistically significant. Overall, nurses working in various teaching hospitals of Kathmandu had adequate knowledge and poor practice of occupational health hazards. Training and in-service education and availability of adequate personal protective equipments for nurses are needed to encourage them adhere to practice.

Keywords: occupational health hazard, nurses, knowledge, preventive practice

Procedia PDF Downloads 340
3518 The Quality of Multi-Ethnic Preschool Environment and Human Resources: Teachers' Satisfaction on Their Career Development

Authors: Nordin Mamat, Abdul Rahim Razalli, Loy Chee Luen, Abdul Talib Hashim

Abstract:

This study was designed to investigate preschool environment in multi-ethnic preschool in Malaysia. The objectives are to identify the quality of work environment in multi-ethnic preschools; to investigate the practices of teachers’ role and responsibility; and to identify the quality of human resources. The study involved 2004 respondents who are the staff of multi-ethnic preschool from the government agency who provide preschool service. This study was conducted using a mixed method in which questionnaires and interviews were used to obtain data from respondents. The findings were analysed using mean and used Likert scale to determine the three-stage level such as the high, moderate and low. Findings indicated that the work environment at a moderate level, but the facilities provided insufficient to carry out educational activities with children. The result based on ranking of duties and responsibilities of teachers in multi-ethnic preschool shows the teachers practice daily record of children's development is very little, that only 65 persons are recording the child's development. The poor ratio of teachers and child in multi-ethnic preschool is between 25 to 35 children per class which means the children need a lot of attention. Meanwhile, the work environment is moderate with a mean score of 3.65 and overall mean score for level of staff career development 3.66 also moderate. The findings indicate the facilities provided in their workplace and staff career development requires improvements. Overall, the level of work environment is moderate, and it needs an improvement in term of facilities.

Keywords: environment, human resources, multi-ethnic preschool, quality teacher

Procedia PDF Downloads 314
3517 Predictors of Clinical Failure After Endoscopic Lumbar Spine Surgery During the Initial Learning Curve

Authors: Daniel Scherman, Daniel Madani, Shanu Gambhir, Marcus Ling Zhixing, Yingda Li

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to identify clinical factors that may predict failed endoscopic lumbar spine surgery to guide surgeons with patient selection during the initial learning curve. Methods: This is an Australasian prospective analysis of the first 105 patients to undergo lumbar endoscopic spine decompression by 3 surgeons. Modified MacNab outcomes, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and Visual Analogue Score (VAS) scores were utilized to evaluate clinical outcomes at 6 months postoperatively. Descriptive statistics and Anova t-tests were performed to measure statistically significant (p<0.05) associations between variables using GraphPad Prism v10. Results: Patients undergoing endoscopic lumbar surgery via an interlaminar or transforaminal approach have overall good/excellent modified MacNab outcomes and a significant reduction in post-operative VAS and ODI scores. Regardless of the anatomical location of disc herniations, good/excellent modified MacNab outcomes and significant reductions in VAS and ODI were reported post-operatively; however, not in patients with calcified disc herniations. Patients with central and foraminal stenosis overall reported poor/fair modified MacNab outcomes. However, there were significant reductions in VAS and ODI scores post-operatively. Patients with subarticular stenosis or an associated spondylolisthesis reported good/excellent modified MacNab outcomes and significant reductions in VAS and ODI scores post-operatively. Patients with disc herniation and concurrent degenerative stenosis had generally poor/fair modified MacNab outcomes. Conclusion: The outcomes of endoscopic spine surgery are encouraging, with a low complication and reoperation rate. However, patients with calcified disc herniations, central canal stenosis or a disc herniation with concurrent degenerative stenosis present challenges during the initial learning curve and may benefit from traditional open or other minimally invasive techniques.

Keywords: complications, lumbar disc herniation, lumbar endoscopic spine surgery, predictors of failed endoscopic spine surgery

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
3516 The Factors That Influence the Self-Sufficiency and the Self-Efficacy Levels among Oncology Patients

Authors: Esra Danaci, Tugba Kavalali Erdogan, Sevil Masat, Selin Keskin Kiziltepe, Tugba Cinarli, Zeliha Koc

Abstract:

This study was conducted in a descriptive and cross-sectional manner to determine that factors that influence the self-efficacy and self-sufficiency levels among oncology patients. The research was conducted between January 24, 2017 and September 24, 2017 in the oncology and hematology departments of a university hospital in Turkey with 179 voluntary inpatients. The data were collected through the Self-Sufficiency/Self-Efficacy Scale and a 29-question survey, which was prepared in order to determine the sociodemographic and clinical properties of the patients. The Self-Sufficiency/Self-Efficacy Scale is a Likert-type scale with 23 articles. The scale scores range between 23 and 115. A high final score indicates a good self-sufficiency/self-efficacy perception for the individual. The data were analyzed using percentage analysis, one-way ANOVA, Mann Whitney U-test, Kruskal Wallis test and Tukey test. The demographic data of the subjects were as follows: 57.5% were male and 42.5% were female, 82.7% were married, 46.4% were primary school graduate, 36.3% were housewives, 19% were employed, 93.3% had social security, 52.5% had matching expenses and incomes, 49.2% lived in the center of the city. The mean age was 57.1±14.6. It was determined that 22.3% of the patients had lung cancer, 19.6% had leukemia, and 43.6% had a good overall condition. The mean self-sufficiency/self-efficacy score was 83,00 (41-115). It was determined that the patients' self-sufficiency/self-efficacy scores were influenced by some of their socio-demographic and clinical properties. This study has found that the patients had high self-sufficiency/self-efficacy scores. It is recommended that the nursing care plans should be developed to improve their self-sufficiency/self-efficacy levels in the light of the patients' sociodemographic and clinical properties.

Keywords: oncology, patient, self-efficacy, self-sufficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 160
3515 Detection of Important Biological Elements in Drug-Drug Interaction Occurrence

Authors: Reza Ferdousi, Reza Safdari, Yadollah Omidi

Abstract:

Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are main cause of the adverse drug reactions and nature of the functional and molecular complexity of drugs behavior in human body make them hard to prevent and treat. With the aid of new technologies derived from mathematical and computational science the DDIs problems can be addressed with minimum cost and efforts. Market basket analysis is known as powerful method to identify co-occurrence of thing to discover patterns and frequency of the elements. In this research, we used market basket analysis to identify important bio-elements in DDIs occurrence. For this, we collected all known DDIs from DrugBank. The obtained data were analyzed by market basket analysis method. We investigated all drug-enzyme, drug-carrier, drug-transporter and drug-target associations. To determine the importance of the extracted bio-elements, extracted rules were evaluated in terms of confidence and support. Market basket analysis of the over 45,000 known DDIs reveals more than 300 important rules that can be used to identify DDIs, CYP 450 family were the most frequent shared bio-elements. We applied extracted rules over 2,000,000 unknown drug pairs that lead to discovery of more than 200,000 potential DDIs. Analysis of the underlying reason behind the DDI phenomena can help to predict and prevent DDI occurrence. Ranking of the extracted rules based on strangeness of them can be a supportive tool to predict the outcome of an unknown DDI.

Keywords: drug-drug interaction, market basket analysis, rule discovery, important bio-elements

Procedia PDF Downloads 302
3514 Loan Supply and Asset Price Volatility: An Experimental Study

Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

Abstract:

This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

Procedia PDF Downloads 118