Search results for: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Authors: Amanda Silva Parra, Dayra Yisel García Ramirez

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In developing countries, agricultural "modernization" has led to a loss of biodiversity and inefficiency of agricultural systems, manifested in increases in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) and the C footprint, generating the susceptibility of systems agriculture to environmental problems, loss of biodiversity, depletion of natural resources, soil degradation and loss of nutrients, and a decrease in the supply of products that affect food security for peoples and nations. Each year agriculture emits 10 to 12% (5.1 to 6.1 Gt CO2eq per year) of the total estimated GHG emissions (51 Gt CO2 eq per year). The FAO recommends that countries that have not yet done so consider declaring sustainable agriculture as an essential or strategic activity of public interest within the framework of green economies to better face global climate change. The objective of this research was to estimate the balance of GHG in agricultural systems of Cumaral, Meta (Colombia), to contribute to the recovery and sustainable operation of agricultural systems that guarantee food security and face changes generated by the climate in a more intelligent way. To determine the GHG balances, the IPCC methodologies were applied with a Tier 1 and 2 level of use. It was estimated that all the silvopastoral systems evaluated play an important role in this reconversion compared to conventional systems such as improved pastures. and degraded pastures due to their ability to capture C both in soil and in biomass, generating positive GHG balances, guaranteeing greater sustainability of soil and air resources.

Keywords: climate change, carbon capture, environmental sustainability, GHG mitigation, silvopastoral systems

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Authors: Zerihun Yohannes Amare Id, Bernhard Freyer, Ky Serge Stephane, Ouéda Adama, Blessing Mudombi, Jean Nzuma, Mekonen Getachew Abebe, Adane Tesfaye, Birtukan Atinkut Asmare, Tesfahun Asmamaw Kassie

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The study was conducted in Ethiopia (Zege Catchment) (ZC), Zimbabwe (Upper Save Catchment) (USC), and Burkina Faso (Nakambe Catchment) (NC). The study utilized a quantitative approach with 180 participants and complemented it with qualitative methods, including 33 key informant interviews and 6 focus group discussions. Households in ZC (58%), NC (55%), and US (40%) do not cover their household food consumption from crop production. The households rely heavily on perennial cash crops rather than annual crop production. Exposure indicators in ZC (0.758), USC (0.774), and NC (0.944), and sensitivity indicators in ZC (0.849) and NC (0.937) show statistically significant and high correlation with vulnerability. In the USC, adaptive capacity (0.746) and exposure (0.774) are also statistically significant and highly correlated with vulnerability. Vulnerability levels of the NC are very high (0.75) (0.85 female and 0.65 male participants) compared to the USC (0.66) (0.69 female and 0.61 male participants) and ZC (0.47) (0.34 female and 0.58 male participants). Female-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to males in ZC, while male-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to females in USC and NC. The reason is land certification in ZC (80%) is higher than in the US (10%) and NC (8%). Agroforestry practices variables across the study catchments had statistically significant contributions to households' adaptive capacity. We conclude that agroforestry practices do have substantial benefits in increasing women's adaptive capacity and reducing their vulnerability to climate change and food insecurity.

Keywords: climate change vulnerability, agroforestry, gender, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Jonardan Koner, Basabi Bhattacharya, Avinash Purandare

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The study is focused to find out the impact of infrastructural investment on economic development in Indian states. The study uses panel data analysis to measure the impact of infrastructural investment on Real Gross Domestic Product in Indian States. Panel data analysis incorporates Unit Root Test, Cointegration Teat, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effect Approach, Random Effect Approach, Hausman Test. The study analyzes panel data (annual in frequency) ranging from 1991 to 2012 and concludes that infrastructural investment has a desirable impact on economic development in Indian. Finally, the study reveals that the infrastructural investment significantly explains the variation of economic indicator.

Keywords: infrastructural investment, real GDP, unit root test, cointegration teat, pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effect approach, random effect approach, Hausman test

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Ahmet Diken, Erkan Kara

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This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance rating and stock prices of 26 Turkish firms listed in Turkish stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) by using panel data analysis over five-year period. The paper also investigates the stock performance of firms with governance rating with regards to the market portfolio (i.e. BIST 100 Index) both prior and after governance scoring began. The empirical results show that there is no relation between corporate governance rating and stock prices when using panel data for annual variation in both rating score and stock prices. Further analysis indicates surprising results that while the selected firms outperform the market significantly prior to rating, the same performance does not continue afterwards.

Keywords: corporate governance, stock price, performance, panel data analysis

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Authors: Saman Javadi, Mohammad Hassan Mahmoudi, Fatemeh Jafari, Aminreza Neshat

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Urmia Lake’s water level has been dropped during the past decade. Although the most common reason in studies was declared climate change, but observation of adjacent lake (like Van in Turkey) is not the same as the common reason. Most of studies were focused on climate and land use change, but groundwater resource as one of the most important element is negligible. Due to population and agriculture activities growth, exploration of groundwater resource has been increased. In as much as continued decline of water levels can lead to saltwater intrusion, reduce stream discharge near outcrop regions and threaten groundwater quality, aquifers of this region were affected by saltwater intrusion of Urmia Lake. In this research comparison of saltwater intrusion into eastern and western coastal aquifer was studied. In conclusion eastern aquifers are in a critical situation; vice versa the western ones are in a better situation. Thus applying management of groundwater operation would be necessary for eastern aquifers.

Keywords: coastal aquifer, groundwater over-exploration, saltwater intrusion, Urmia Lake

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Authors: Bongsu Choi, Tae-Ho Song

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Vacuum insulation panel (VIP) is a promising thermal insulator for buildings, refrigerator, LNG carrier and so on. In general, it has the thermal conductivity of 2~4 mW/m•K. However, this thermal conductivity is that measured at the center of VIP. The total effective thermal conductivity of VIP is larger than this value due to the edge conduction through the envelope. In this paper, the edge conduction of VIP is examined theoretically, numerically and experimentally. To confirm the existence of the edge conduction, numerical analysis is performed for simple two-dimensional VIP model and a theoretical model is proposed to calculate the edge conductivity. Also, the edge conductivity is measured using the vacuum guarded hot plate and the experiment is validated against numerical analysis. The results show that the edge conductivity is dependent on the width of panel and thickness of Al-foil. To reduce the edge conduction, it is recommended that the VIP should be made as big as possible or made of thin Al film envelope.

Keywords: envelope, edge conduction, thermal conductivity, vacuum insulation panel

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Authors: Burcu Guvenek, Duygu Baysal Kurt

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The impact of foreign trade on economic growth has been discussed since the Classical Economists. Today, foreign trade has become more important for the country's economy with the increasing globalization. When it comes to foreign trade, policies which may vary from country to country and from time to time as protectionism or free trade are implemented. In general, the positive effect of foreign trade on economic growth is alleged. However, as studies supporting this general acceptance take place in the economics literature, there are also studies in the opposite direction. In this paper, the impact of foreign trade on economic growth will be investigated with the help of panel data analysis. For this research, 24 OECD countries’ GDP and foreign trade data, including the period of 1990 and 2010, will be used.

Keywords: foreign trade, economic growth, OECD countries, panel data analysis

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Authors: T. Davitashvili

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In this paper, some results of numerical simulation of the air flow dynamics in the troposphere over the Caucasus Mountains taking place in conditions of nonstationarity of large-scale undisturbed background flow are presented. Main features of the atmospheric currents changeability while air masses are transferred from the Black Sea to the land’s surface had been investigated. In addition, the effects of thermal and advective-dynamic factors of atmosphere on the changes of the West Georgian climate have been studied. It was shown that non-proportional warming of the Black Sea and Colkhi lowland provokes the intensive strengthening of circulation and effect of climate cooling in the western Georgia.

Keywords: regional climate, numerical simulation, local circulation, orographic effect

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

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The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

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Authors: Renata Konadu

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Over the last two decades, the concept of environmental management and its related issues have received increased attention in global discourse and on management research agenda due to climate change and other environmental challenges. To abate and avert these challenges, diverse environmental policies, strategies and practices have been adopted by businesses and economies as a whole. Extant literature has placed much emphasis on whether improved environmental operational performance improves firm performance. However, there is a huge gap in the literature with regards to whether the adoption of environmental management practices and policies has a direct relationship with environmental operational performance (EOP). The current paper is intended to provide a comprehensive perspective of how different aspects of environmental management can relate to firms EOP. Using a panel regression analysis of 149 large listed firms in the UK, the study found evidence of both negative and positive statistically significant link between some Environmental Policies (EP), Environmental Processes (EPR), Environmental Management Systems (EMS) and EOP. The findings suggest that in terms of relating EP, EPR and EMS to Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions for instance, the latter should be viewed separately in Scopes 1, 2 and 3 as developed by GHG protocol. The results have useful implication for policy makers and managers when designing strategies and policies to reduce negative environmental impacts.

Keywords: environmental management, environmental operational performance, GHGs, large listed firms

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Authors: Hassan Gana Abdullahi, Michael A. Fullen, David Oloke

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Drought poses an enormous global threat to sustainable development and is expected to increase with global climate change. Drought and desertification are major problems in Yobe State (north-east Nigeria). This investigation aims to develop a workable framework and management tool for drought mitigation in Yobe State. Mixed methods were employed during the study and additional qualitative information was gathered through Focus Group Discussions (FGD). Data on socio-economic impacts of drought were thus collected via both questionnaire surveys and FGD. In all, 1,040 questionnaires were distributed to farmers in the State and 721 were completed, representing a return rate of 69.3%. Data analysis showed that 97.9% of respondents considered themselves to be drought victims, whilst 69.3% of the respondents were unemployed and had no other means of income, except through rain-fed farming. Developing a viable and holistic approach to drought mitigation is crucial, to arrest and hopefully reverse environment degradation. Analysed data will be used to develop an integrated framework for drought mitigation and management in Yobe State. This paper introduces the socio-economic and environmental effects of drought in Yobe State.

Keywords: drought, climate change, mitigation, management, Yobe State

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

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Urban areas contain abundant potential biochemical storages and renewable and non-renewable flows. Urban natural environments for breeding natural assets and urban economic development for maintaining urban functions can be analyzed form the concept of ecological economic system. Land use change and ecosystem services change are resulting from the interactions between human activities and environments factually. Land use change due to human activities is the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and supporting services. However, it lacks discussion on the interactions among urban land use change, ecosystem services change, and extreme precipitation events. Energy synthesis can use the same measure standard unit, solar energy, for different energy resources (e.g. sunlight, water, fossil fuels, minerals, etc.) and analyze contributions of various natural environmental resources on human economic systems. Therefore, this research adopts the concept of ecological, economic systems and energy synthesis for analyzing dynamic spatial impacts of land use change on ecosystem services, using the Taipei area as a case study. The analysis results show that changes in land use in the Taipei area, especially the conversion of natural lands and agricultural lands to urban lands, affect the ecosystem services negatively. These negative effects become more significant during the extreme precipitation events.

Keywords: urban ecological economic system, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, energy

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Authors: Evren Ozgur, Kasim Kocak

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As a result of global warming and climate change, air temperature has increased and will continue to increase in the future. Increases in air temperatures have effects on a large number of variables in meteorology. One of the most important effects is the changes in the types of precipitation, especially in mid-latitudes. Because of increasing air temperatures, less snowfall was observed in the eastern parts of Turkey. Snowfall provides most of the water supply in spring and summer months, especially in mountainous regions of Turkey. When the temperature begins to increase in spring season, this snow starts to melt and plays an important role in agricultural purposes, drinking water supply and energy production. On the other hand, defining the snow season is very crucial especially in mountainous areas which have winter tourism opportunities. A reduction in the length of the snow season (LSS) in these regions will result in serious consequences in the long run. In the study, snow season was examined for 10 meteorological stations that are located above the altitude of 1000m. These stations have decreasing trends in the ratio of number of snowy days to total precipitation days considering earlier studies. Daily precipitation records with the observation period of 1971-2011 were used in the study. Then, the observation period was separated into 4 non-overlapping parts in order to identify decadal variations. Changes in the length of the snow season with increasing temperatures were obtained for these stations. The results of LSS were evaluated with the number of snowy days for each station. All stations have decreasing trend in number of snowy days for 1971-2011 period. In addition, seven of the results are statistically significant. Besides, decrease is observed regarding the length of snow season for studied stations. The decrease varies between 6.6 and 47.6 days according to decadal snow season averages of the stations.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, precipitation, snowfall, Turkey

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Authors: Damien Gondre, Hatem Ben Maad, Abdelkrim Trabelsi, Frédéric Kuznik, Joseph Virgone

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The use of a radiant cooling solution would enable to lower cooling needs which is of great interest when the demand is initially high (hot climate). But, radiant systems are not naturally compatibles with humid climates since a low-temperature surface leads to condensation risks as soon as the surface temperature is close to or lower than the dew point temperature. A radiant cooling system combined to a dehumidification system would enable to remove humidity for the space, thereby lowering the dew point temperature. The humidity removal needs to be especially effective near the cooled surface. This requirement could be fulfilled by a system using a single desiccant fluid for the removal of both excessive heat and moisture. This task aims at providing an estimation of the specification requirements of such system in terms of cooling power and dehumidification rate required to fulfill comfort issues and to prevent any condensation risk on the cool panel surface. The present paper develops a preliminary study on the specification requirements, performances and behavior of a combined dehumidifier/cooling ceiling panel for different operating conditions. This study has been carried using the TRNSYS software which allows nodal calculations of thermal systems. It consists of the dynamic modeling of heat and vapor balances of a 5m x 3m x 2.7m office space. In a first design estimation, this room is equipped with an ideal heating, cooling, humidification and dehumidification system so that the room temperature is always maintained in between 21^◦C and 25^◦C with a relative humidity in between 40% and 60%. The room is also equipped with a ventilation system that includes a heat recovery heat exchanger and another heat exchanger connected to a heat sink. Main results show that the system should be designed to meet a cooling power of 42W.m⁻² and a desiccant rate of 45 g_H2O.h⁻¹. In a second time, a parametric study of comfort issues and system performances has been achieved on a more realistic system (that includes a chilled ceiling) under different operating conditions. It enables an estimation of an acceptable range of operating conditions. This preliminary study is intended to provide useful information for the system design.

Keywords: dehumidification, nodal calculation, radiant cooling panel, system sizing

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Authors: Rodrigo I. Ullauri, Santiago E. Tinajero, Omar O. Ramos, Paola R. Quintana

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The increase of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere and its impact on climate change is a global concern. The transportation sector is a significant consumer of fossil fuels and contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. The current challenge is to find ways to reduce the use of fossil fuels in transportation. In Ecuador, where 92% of electricity is generated from clean sources, the concept of e-mobility is considered an attractive alternative to address the challenge of sustainable mobility. The proposal is to migrate from combustion-powered vehicles to electric vehicles in the electric companies of Ecuador, using a methodology to standardize criteria, determine specific requirements, contrast technical characteristics, and estimate emission reductions. The results showed that there are three categories of vehicles that have electric counterparts suitable for performing activities under certain operation parameters inherent to current technology limitations but with a significant contribution to the reduction of annual CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: climate change, electro mobility, energy, sustainable transportation

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Authors: M. Abir Hossain, M. Shahjada Tarafder

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This paper deals with the analysis of potential flow past two-dimensional body by discretizing the body into panels where the Laplace equation was applied to each panel. The Laplace equation was solved at each panel by applying the boundary conditions. The boundary condition was applied at each panel to mathematically formulate the problem and then convert the problem into a computer-solvable problem. Kutta condition was applied at both the leading and trailing edges to see whether the condition is satisfied or not. Another approach that is applied for the analysis is Vortex Lattice Method (VLM). A vortex ring is considered at each control point. Using the Biot-Savart Law the strength at each control point is calculated and hence the pressure differentials are measured. For the comparison of the analytic result with the experimental result, different NACA section hydrofoil is used. The analytic result of NACA 0012 and NACA 0015 are compared with the experimental result of Abbott and Doenhoff and found significant conformity with the achieved result.

Keywords: Kutta condition, Law of Biot-Savart, pressure differentials, potential flow, vortex lattice method

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Authors: Luisa Kynast

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It is obvious that buildings and infrastructure are highly impacted by climate change (CC). Both, design and material of buildings need to be resilient to weather events in order to shelter humans, animals, or goods. As well as buildings and infrastructure are exposed to weather events, the construction process itself is generally carried out outdoors without being protected from extreme temperatures, heavy rain, or storms. The production process is restricted by technical limitations for processing materials with machines and physical limitations due to human beings (“outdoor-worker”). In future due to CC, average weather patterns are expected to change as well as extreme weather events are expected to occur more frequently and more intense and therefore have a greater impact on production processes and on the construction businesses itself. This research aims to examine this impact by analyzing an association between responses to CC and financial performance of businesses within the construction industry. After having embedded the above depicted field of research into the resource dependency theory, a literature review was conducted to expound the state of research concerning a contingent relation between climate change adaptation measures (CCAM) and corporate financial performance for construction businesses. The examined studies prove that this field is rarely investigated, especially for construction businesses. Therefore, reports of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) were analyzed by applying content analysis using the software tool MAXQDA. 58 construction companies – located worldwide – could be examined. To proceed even more systematically a coding scheme analogous to findings in literature was adopted. Out of qualitative analysis, data was quantified and a regression analysis containing corporate financial data was conducted. The results gained stress adaptation measures as a response to CC as a crucial proxy to handle climate change impacts (CCI) by mitigating risks and exploiting opportunities. In CDP reports the majority of answers stated increasing costs/expenses as a result of implemented measures. A link to sales/revenue was rarely drawn. Though, CCAM were connected to increasing sales/revenues. Nevertheless, this presumption is supported by the results of the regression analysis where a positive effect of implemented CCAM on construction businesses´ financial performance in the short-run was ascertained. These findings do refer to appropriate responses in terms of the implemented number of CCAM. Anyhow, still businesses show a reluctant attitude for implementing CCAM, which was confirmed by findings in literature as well as by findings in CDP reports. Businesses mainly associate CCAM with costs and expenses rather than with an effect on their corporate financial performance. Mostly companies underrate the effect of CCI and overrate the costs and expenditures for the implementation of CCAM and completely neglect the pay-off. Therefore, this research shall create a basis for bringing CC to the (financial) attention of corporate decision-makers, especially within the construction industry.

Keywords: climate change adaptation measures, construction businesses, financial implication, resource dependency theory

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Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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Authors: Monica Sanchez

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What responsibility does urban planning have on climate changes? How does the territory give us answers of resilience? Historically, urban plans have civilized territories: waters are channeled, grounds are sealed, foreign species are incorporated, native ones are extinguished, and/or enclosed spaces are heated or cooled. Socially this facilitates coexistence, but in turn brings negative environmental consequences. The past fifty years, mankind has tried to redirect these consequences through different strategies. Research studies produced strategies designed to alleviate climate change. Exploring the nature of territories has been incorporated in urban planning to discover natures response. The case to be studied is Santiago, Chile: for its combined impacts of climate change and the significant response by this city on climate governance in the last decades. Warmer areas in Santiago are seen in the areas of high-density buildings such as the commune of Recoleta, while the coldest are characterized by the predominance of low residential densities as the commune of Providencia. These two communes are separated and complemented by an undulating body that comes from the Andes mountains called San Cristobal Hill. What if the hill were taken into account when making roads, zoning and buildings? Was it difficult to prolong in the urban plans the hill characteristics to the city solving the intersection with other natural areas? Apparently it was, because the projected-profile informs us that the planned strategies used correspond to the same operations used in the flat areas of Santiago. This research focuses on: explaining the geographic relationships between city-hill; explaining the planning process around the hill with a morphological analysis; evaluating how the hill has been considered the in the city in the plans that intended to cushion the environmental impacts and studying what is missing on the hill and city to strengthen their integration. Therefore, the research will have different scales of understanding: addressing territorial scale -understanding the vegetation, topography and hydrology; a city scale -analyzing urban plans that Santiago has dealt with the environment and city; and a local scale -studying the integration and public spaces and coverage- norms of the adjacent communes. The expected outcome is to decipher possible deficits and capabilities of the current urban plans for climate change. It is anticipated that the hill and valley is now trying to reconcile after such a long separation. Yet it seems that never will prevail all the Rules of Nature, but the Urban Rules. The plans will require pruning, irrigation, control of invasive alien species and public safety standards, but will be rejoining a dose of nature with the building environment -this will protect us better from it from the time that we feared from it and knew little about it. Today we know a little more, enough to adapt to the process. Although nature is not perceived and we ignore it, it has a remarkable ability to respond.

Keywords: resilience, climate change, urban plans, land use, hills and cities, heat islands, morphology

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Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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In this paper, the vulnerability level to climate change is analysed using a comprehensive index, consisting of five pillars: human, social, natural, physical, and financial. A structural equation model is also applied to determine the indicators and relationships that exist between the observed environmental changes and the quality of life. Using survey data to model the results, a value of 0.382 is derived as the vulnerability level for San Pedro, where values closer to zero indicates lower vulnerability and values closer to one indicates higher vulnerability. The results showed the social pillar to be most vulnerable, with the indicator ‘participation’ ranked the highest in its cohort. Although, the environmental pillar is ranked as least vulnerable, the indicators ‘hazard’ and ‘biodiversity’ obtained scores closer to 0.4, suggesting that changes in the environment are occurring from natural and anthropogenic activities. These changes can negatively influence the quality of life as illustrated in the structural equation modelling. The study concludes by reporting on the need for collective action and participation by households in lowering vulnerability to ensure sustainable development and livelihood.

Keywords: climate change, participation, San Pedro, structural equation model, vulnerability index

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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The understanding of housing price dynamics is of importance to a great number of agents: to portfolio investors, banks, real estate brokers and construction companies as well as to policy makers and households. A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models is dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Common Correlated Effects estimator (CCE) of dynamic panel data which also accounts for cross-sectional dependence which is caused by common structures of the economy. In presence of cross-sectional dependence standard OLS gives biased estimates. In this study, U.S housing price dynamics were examined empirically using the dynamic CCE estimator with first-difference of housing price as the dependent and first-differences of per capita income, interest rate, housing stock and lagged price together with deviation of housing prices from their long-run equilibrium level as independents. These deviations were also estimated from the data. The aim of the analysis was to provide estimates with comparisons of estimates between 1980-1999 and 2000-2012. Based on data of 50 U.S cities over 1980-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were mostly significant when two time periods were compared. Significance tests of differences were provided by the model containing interaction terms of independents and time dummy variable. Residual analysis showed very low cross-sectional correlation of the model residuals compared with the standard OLS approach. This means a good fit of CCE estimator model. Estimates of the dynamic panel data model were in line with the theory of housing price dynamics. Results also suggest that dynamics of a housing market is evolving over time.

Keywords: dynamic model, panel data, cross-sectional dependence, interaction model

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Authors: Chen Xi, Liu Xuebing, Lao Xuerui, Kuan Sinman, Jiang Yike, Wang Hanwei, Yang Xiaolang, Zhou Junjie, Xie Jinpeng

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Climate change is a global problem facing humanity and this is now the consensus of the mainstream scientific community. In accordance with the carbon peak and carbon neutral targets and visions set out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, this project uses the City Intelligent Model (CIM) and Artificial Intelligence Machine Vision (ICR) as the core technologies to accurately quantify low carbon behaviour into green corn, which is a means of guiding ecologically sustainable living patterns. Using individual communities as management units and blockchain as a guarantee of fairness in the whole cycle of green currency circulation, the project will form a modern resident carbon track management system based on the principle of enhancing the ecological resilience of communities and the cohesiveness of community residents, ultimately forming an ecologically sustainable smart village that can be self-organised and managed.

Keywords: urban planning, urban governance, CIM, artificial Intelligence, sustainable development

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Authors: Rahman Davtalab

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Florida is one of the most vulnerable states to natural disasters among the 50 states of the USA. The state exposed by tropical storms, hurricanes, storm surge, landslide, etc. Besides, the mentioned natural phenomena, global warming, sea-level rise, and other anthropogenic environmental changes make a very complicated and unpredictable system for decision-makers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effects of climate change and sea-level rise on surface water and groundwater systems for three different geographical locations in Florida; Main Canal of Jacksonville Beach (in the northeast of Florida adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean), Grace Lake in central Florida, far away from surrounded coastal line, and Mc Dill in Florida and adjacent to Tampa Bay and Mexican Gulf. An integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model was developed and simulated for all three cases, including surface water, groundwater, or a combination of both. For the case study of Main Canal-Jacksonville Beach, the investigation showed that a 76 cm sea-level rise in time horizon 2060 could increase the flow velocity of the tide cycle for the main canal's outlet and headwater. This case also revealed how the sea level rise could change the tide duration, potentially affecting the coastal ecosystem. As expected, sea-level rise can raise the groundwater level. Therefore, for the Mc Dill case, the effect of groundwater rise on soil storage and the performance of stormwater retention ponds is investigated. The study showed that sea-level rise increased the pond’s seasonal high water up to 40 cm by time horizon 2060. The reliability of the retention pond is dropped from 99% for the current condition to 54% for the future. The results also proved that the retention pond could not retain and infiltrate the designed treatment volume within 72 hours, which is a significant indication of increasing pollutants in the future. Grace Lake case study investigates the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge. This study showed that using the dynamically downscaled data of the groundwater recharge can decline up to 24% by the mid-21st century.

Keywords: groundwater, surface water, Florida, retention pond, tide, sea level rise

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Authors: K. Thakkar, C. Ghenai

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An integrated modeling approach was used in this study to (1) track energy consumption, production, and resource extraction, (2) track greenhouse gases emissions and (3) analyze emissions for local and regional air pollutions. The model was used in this study for short and long term energy and GHG emissions reduction analysis for the state of Florida. The integrated modeling methodology will help to evaluate the alternative energy scenarios and examine emissions-reduction strategies. The mitigation scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies. They consist of various demand and supply side scenarios. One of the GHG mitigation scenarios is crafted by taking into account the available renewable resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against ‘Business As Usual’ and ‘Florida State Policy’ scenario. Two more ‘integrated’ scenarios, (‘Electrification’ and ‘Efficiency and Lifestyle’) are crafted through combination of various mitigation scenarios to assess the cumulative impact of the reduction measures such as technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation.

Keywords: energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, integrated modeling approach, energy alternatives, and GHG emission reductions

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Authors: Aktan Ozsoy, Ali Fırat Cabalar, Eyyub Karakan

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Climate change is one of the biggest issues facing communities. Increasing population, growing economies, rapid industrialization are the main factors triggering it. On the other hand, the millions of tons of waste have generated by the period of rapid global growth not only harm to the environment but also lead to the use of valuable lands around the world as landfill sites. Moreover, it is rapidly consuming our resources and this forcing the human population and wildlife to share increasingly shrinking space. In this direction, it is vital to reuse waste materials with a sustainability philosophy. This study was carried out to contribute to the combat against climate change, conserve our natural resources and the environment. An oedometer (consolidation) test was performed on two waste materials combined in certain proportions to evaluate their sustainable usage. Crushed brick (BD) was mixed with rock powder (RP) in 0, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50% (dry weight of soil). The results obtained revealed the importance of the gradation of the material used in the consolidation test. It was found that there was a negligible difference between the initial and final void ratio of mixtures with brick dust added.

Keywords: waste material, oedometer test, environmental geotechnics, sustainability

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Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Muhammad Sajjad

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Climate change has become a global environmental challenge and it has affected the world’s economy. Its impact is widespread across all major sectors of the economy i.e. agriculture, industry, and services sectors. This study attempts to measure the long run as well as the short-run dynamic between energy; environment and economic growth by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach at aggregate as well as sectoral level. We measured the causal relationship between electricity consumption, fuel consumption, CO₂ emission, and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period of 1980 to 2016 for Pakistan. Our co-integration results reveal that all the variables are co-integrated at aggregate as well as at sectoral level. Electricity consumption shows two-way casual relation at for industry, services and aggregate level. The inverted U-Curve hypothesis tested the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and per capita GDP and results supported the Environment Kuznet Curve (EKC) hypothesis. This study cannot ignore the importance of energy for economic growth but prefers to focus on renewable and green energy to pave on the trajectory of development.

Keywords: climate change, economic growth, energy, environment

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Authors: Julio Silva, Lia Hasenclever, Gilson G. Silva Jr.

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The aim of this paper is to check possible convergence in health measures (aged-standard rate of morbidity and mortality) for communicable diseases between developed and developing countries, conditional to productive structures features. Understanding the interrelations between health patterns and economic development is particularly important in the context of low- and middle-income countries, where economic development comes along with deep social inequality. Developing countries with less diversified productive structures (measured through complexity index) but high heterogeneous inter-sectorial labor productivity (using as a proxy inter-sectorial coefficient of variation of labor productivity) has on average low health levels in communicable diseases compared to developed countries with high diversified productive structures and low labor market heterogeneity. Structural heterogeneity and productive diversification may have influence on health levels even considering per capita income. We set up a panel data for 139 countries from 1995 to 2015, joining several data about the countries, as economic development, health, and health system coverage, environmental and socioeconomic aspects. This information was obtained from World Bank, International Labour Organization, Atlas of Economic Complexity, United Nation (Development Report) and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Database. Econometric panel models evidence shows that the level of communicable diseases has a positive relationship with structural heterogeneity, even considering other factors as per capita income. On the other hand, the recent process of convergence in terms of communicable diseases have been motivated for other reasons not directly related to productive structure, as health system coverage and environmental aspects. These evidences suggest a joint dynamics between the unequal distribution of communicable diseases and countries' productive structure aspects. These set of evidence are quite important to public policy as meet the health aims in Millennium Development Goals. It also highlights the importance of the process of structural change as fundamental to shift the levels of health in terms of communicable diseases and can contribute to the debate between the relation of economic development and health patterns changes.

Keywords: economic development, inequality, population health, structural change

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Authors: Saleh Nabiyev

Abstract:

Renewable energy is becoming increasingly important in today's world due to its significant impact on the green economy, ecology, environment, and climate change. Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, are clean and sustainable, making them an ideal solution to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. The Karabakh region is located in the South Caucasus and covers an area of approximately 11,500 km². The region has a mountainous terrain, which can affect the availability of wind and solar resources. The Karabakh region has significant wind power potential, particularly in its mountainous areas where wind speeds are typically higher. According to a study conducted by the European Commission Joint Research Centre, the average wind speed in the Karabakh region is between 4 and 6 meters per second (m/s) at a height of 50 meters above ground level (AGL). However, wind speeds can be higher in some areas, reaching up to 10 m/s in some mountainous areas. The region also has significant solar power potential, with an average of 2,000 to 2,200 hours of sunshine per year. The region's high altitude and clear skies make it particularly suitable for the development of solar power projects. In this research, the application of satellite images, solar radiation, wind speed and direction, as well as various other materials to determine suitable areas for alternative energy sources, is investigated. The methodology for selecting suitable locations for solar and wind energy consists of four main parts: identification of factors, evaluation of factors, data preparation, and application of suitability analysis. At the end of the research, the territory of the Kalbajar and Lachin districts is suitable for wind energy. The southern plain part of Karabakh is highly evaluated in terms of solar energy potential, especially Jabrayil district. Generally, outcomes taken from this research are essential data for increasing of rational using natural resources, as well as combating climate change.

Keywords: GIS, remote sensing, suitability analysis, solar energy, wind energy

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Authors: M. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H. Sharma, Fatema Akram

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Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameter stationary. However, climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise (SLR). To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment

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Authors: Prince Dacosta Aboagye, Ayyoob Sharifi

Abstract:

Cities respond to climate concerns mainly through their climate action plans (CAPs). A comprehensive content analysis of the dynamics in existing urban CAPs is not well represented in the literature. This literature void presents a difficulty in appreciating the strengths and weaknesses of urban CAPs. Here, we perform a qualitative content analysis (QCA) on CAPs from 278 cities worldwide and use text-mining tools to map and visualize the relevant data. Our analysis showed a decline in the number of CAPs developed and published following the global COVID-19 lockdown period. Evidently, megacities are leading the deep decarbonisation agenda. We also observed a transition from developing mainly mitigation-focused CAPs pre-COP21 to both mitigation and adaptation CAPs. A lack of inclusiveness in local climate planning was common among European and North American cities. The evidence is a catalyst for understanding the trends in existing urban CAPs to shape future urban climate planning.

Keywords: urban, climate action plans, strengths, weaknesses

Procedia PDF Downloads 86