Search results for: socio-demographic variables

Authors: Khaled Ramadan Elbeydi

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This study is carried out to provide an insight into the analysis of the impact of selected macro-economic variables on gross fixed capital formation in Libya using annual data over the period (1970-2010). The importance of this study comes from the ability to show the relative important factors that impact the Libyan gross fixed capital formation. This understanding would give indications to decision makers on which policy they must focus to stimulate the economy. An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling process is employed to investigate the impact of the gross domestic product, monetary base, and trade openness on gross fixed capital formation in Libya. The results of this study reveal that there is an equilibrium relationship between capital formation and its determinants. The results also indicate that GDP and trade openness largely explain the pattern of capital formation in Libya. The findings and recommendations provide vital information relevant for policy formulation and implementation aimed to improve capital formation in Libya.

Keywords: ARDL, bounds test, capital formation, co-integration, Libya

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Authors: Yanpei Zhen

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The nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation models wave dynamics in many physical problems related to fluids, plasmas, and optics. The standing periodic waves are known to be modulationally unstable, and rogue waves (localized perturbations in space and time) have been observed on their backgrounds in numerical experiments. The exact solutions for rogue waves arising on the periodic standing waves have been obtained analytically. It is natural to ask if the rogue waves persist on the standing periodic waves in the integrable discretizations of the integrable NLS equation. We study the standing periodic waves in the semidiscrete integrable system modeled by the high-order Ablowitz-Ladik (AL) equation. The standing periodic wave of the high-order AL equation is expressed by the Jacobi cnoidal elliptic function. The exact solutions are obtained by using the separation of variables and one-fold Darboux transformation. Since the cnoidal wave is modulationally unstable, the rogue waves are generated on the periodic background.

Keywords: Darboux transformation, periodic wave, Rogue wave, separating the variables

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Authors: Madani Chahinaz

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This study aims to shed light on the impact of dividend policy on corporate profitability and its relationship to growth, considering the economic developments taking place. The study was conducted on a sample of seven companies for the period from 2014 to 2020, based on a set of determinants to select variables affecting dividend distribution, where the descriptive analytical approach relied upon using graphical data models. The study concluded that companies that follow a well-studied dividend distribution policy enjoy higher profitability rates, which contributes to enhancing their growth in light of the economic developments taking place. There is also no statistically significant relationship between the variables of total asset growth and fixed asset growth and profitability. The study also concluded that there is statistical significance for the relationship between the sales volume growth variable, the self-financing ratio variable, and dividend distribution at a significance level of 0.05, as the random effects model was able to explain 68% of the changes in dividend distribution policy.

Keywords: dividend distribution policy, profitability, growth, self-financing ratio

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Authors: Hang Yang, Jichao Li, Kewei Yang, Tianyang Lei

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Multivariate time series anomaly detection is a significant research topic in the field of data mining, encompassing a wide range of applications across various industrial sectors such as traffic roads, financial logistics, and corporate production. The inherent spatial dependencies and temporal characteristics present in multivariate time series introduce challenges to the anomaly detection task. Previous studies have typically been based on the assumption that all variables belong to the same spatial hierarchy, neglecting the multi-level spatial relationships. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a multi-scale spatial and unified temporal feature fusion network, denoted as MSUT-Net, for multivariate time series anomaly detection. The proposed model employs a multi-level modeling approach, incorporating both temporal and spatial modules. The spatial module is designed to capture the spatial characteristics of multivariate time series data, utilizing an adaptive graph structure learning model to identify the multi-level spatial relationships between data variables and their attributes. The temporal module consists of a unified temporal processing module, which is tasked with capturing the temporal features of multivariate time series. This module is capable of simultaneously identifying temporal dependencies among different variables. Extensive testing on multiple publicly available datasets confirms that MSUT-Net achieves superior performance on the majority of datasets. Our method is able to model and accurately detect systems data with multi-level spatial relationships from a spatial-temporal perspective, providing a novel perspective for anomaly detection analysis.

Keywords: data mining, industrial system, multivariate time series, anomaly detection

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Authors: Yaowei Hu, Yongkai Wu, Lu Zhang, Xintao Wu

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Causal inference from observational data is receiving wide applications in many fields. However, unidentifiable situations, where causal effects cannot be uniquely computed from observational data, pose critical barriers to applying causal inference to complicated real applications. In this paper, we develop a bounding method for estimating the average causal effect (ACE) under unidentifiable situations due to hidden confounders. We propose to parameterize the unknown exogenous random variables and structural equations of a causal model using neural networks and implicit generative models. Then, with an adversarial learning framework, we search the parameter space to explicitly traverse causal models that agree with the given observational distribution and find those that minimize or maximize the ACE to obtain its lower and upper bounds. The proposed method does not make any assumption about the data generating process and the type of the variables. Experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: average causal effect, hidden confounding, bound estimation, generative adversarial learning

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Authors: André Furtado, Hugo Rodrigues, António Arêde, Humberto Varum

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Besides characterized as non-structural elements, infill masonry (IM) walls have an important contribute in the structural response of reinforced concrete structures as proved by the damages observed recent earthquakes. In particular, the out-of-plane (OOP) collapse has been one of the most observed failure mechanism. The aim of this research is to contribute to the increase of understanding regarding the OOP behaviour of full-scale infill panels considering different variables such as panel support width and axial load on the top of columns. For this, it was carried out in the Laboratory of Earthquake and Structural Engineering (LESE) an experimental campaign of five full-scale IM walls subjected to OOP distributed cyclic loadings. Specimens with different variables such as previous in-plane damage, support conditions, axial load on the top of the columns were studied. The results will be presented and discussed along the manuscript in terms of force-displacement hysteretic curves, cracking pattern, initial stiffness, stiffness degradation and accumulative energy dissipation.

Keywords: infill masonry walls, experimental testing, out-of-plane, full-scale

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Authors: Rana F. Obeidat, Suzanne S. Dickerson, Gregory G. Homish, Nesreen M. Alqaissi, Robin M. Lally

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Background: Despite the fact that breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among Jordanian women, practically nothing is known about their perceptions of early stage breast cancer and surgical treatment. Objective: To gain understanding of the diagnosis and surgical treatment experience of Jordanian women diagnosed with early stage breast cancer. Methods: An interpretive phenomenological approach was used for this study. A purposive sample of 28 Jordanian women who were surgically treated for early stage breast cancer within 6 months of the interview was recruited. Data were collected using individual interviews and analyzed using Heideggerian hermeneutical methodology. Results: Fear had a profound effect on Jordanian women’s stories of diagnosis and surgical treatment of early stage breast cancer. Women’s experience with breast cancer and its treatment was shaped by their pre-existing fear of breast cancer, the disparity in the quality of care at various health care institutions, and sociodemographic factors (e.g., education, age). Conclusions: Early after the diagnosis, fear was very strong and women lost perspective of the fact that this disease was treatable and potentially curable. To control their fears, women unconditionally trusted God, the health care system, surgeons, family, friends, and/or neighbors, and often accepted treatment offered by their surgeons without questioning. Implications for practice: Jordanian healthcare providers have a responsibility to listen to their patients, explore meanings they ascribe to their illness, and provide women with proper education and support necessary to help them cope with their illness.

Keywords: breast cancer, early stage, Jordanian, experience, phenomenology

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Authors: Gerald H. Artisen, Miah Joy O Awing, Elydia O. Ayat, Rachel L. Ayangwa, Zeah D. Baggas, Aspen S. Baguiyac, Delight D. Baguiyac, Kristine G. Bakidan, Nemesis B. Bakidan, Ketly B. Balanggao, Rhea G. Bala-Is, Hope Lulet A. Lomioan

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The study investigated the prevalence and risk factors associated with postpartum depression among mothers in the Pasil, Kalinga, contributing to a better understanding of the mental health challenges faced by this specific population. This research utilized a cross-sectional descriptive study to assess postpartum depression prevalence and identify contributing factors in Pasil, utilizing a quantitative approach and collecting data on sociodemographic characteristics, obstetric data, and the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. The study concluded that probable depression can be seen among mothers in the Pasil, which resulted in a risk of suicidality with a percentage of 40.08. Additionally, most of the respondents are aged 28–32, married, have a college degree, are unemployed, have a monthly income of 1,000–5,000, are female, have hypertension, gave birth naturally, have two children, have a planned pregnancy, and are currently breastfeeding. Lastly, the study found that mothers in Pasil who have unplanned pregnancies under obstetric factors are at high risk of developing postpartum depression, with a p-value below the 0.05 level. The study recommends barangay health professionals develop initiatives to inform aspiring mothers about postpartum depression (PPD) and resources to help them adjust to motherhood. It also recommends frequent check-ins with new mothers to identify special healthcare needs. Programs should be independently funded by LGUs, and support from family and relatives is recommended to prevent PPD.

Keywords: maternal health, postpartum depression, mothers, Pasil

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Authors: A. Pallavi, N. Vijay Mohan

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A nation can be economically progressive only when the citizens have sufficient capacity to work efficiently to increase the productivity. So, good health must be regarded as a primary need of the community. This helps the growth and development of the body and the mind, which in turn leads to progress and prosperity of the nation. An optimum growth is a necessity for an efficient existence in a biologically adverse and economically competitive world. It is also necessary for the execution of daily routine work. Yoga is a method or a system for the complete development of the personality in a human being. It can be further elaborated as an all-around and complete development of the body, mind, morality, intellect and soul of a being. Sri Aurobindo defines yoga as 'a methodical effort towards self-perfection by the development of the potentialities in the individual.' Aerobic exercise as any activity that uses large muscle groups, can be maintained continuously, and is rhythmic I nature. It is a type of exercise that overloads the heart and lungs and causes them to work harder than at rest. The important idea behind aerobic exercise today, is to get up and get moving. There are more activities that ever to choose from, whether it is a new activity or an old one. Find something you enjoy doing that keeps our heart rate elevated for a continuous time period and get moving to a healthier life. Middle aged selected and served as the subjects for the purpose of this study. The selected subjects were in the age group of 30 to 40 years. By going through the literature and after consulting the experts in yoga and aerobic training, the investigator had chosen the variables which are specifically related to the middle-aged men. The selected physiological variables are pulse rate, diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure; percent body fat and vital capacity. The selected psychological variables are job anxiety, occupational stress. The study was formulated as a random group design consisting of aerobic exercise and yogic exercises groups. The subjects (N=60) were at random divided into three equal groups of twenty middle-aged men each. The groups were assigned the names as follows: 1. Experimental group I- aerobic exercises group, 2. Experimental group II- yogic exercises, 3. Control group. All the groups were subjected to pre-test prior to the experimental treatment. The experimental groups participated in their respective duration of twenty-four weeks, six days in a week throughout the study. The various tests administered were: prior to training (pre-test), after twelfth week (second test) and twenty-fourth weeks (post-test) of the training schedule.

Keywords: pulse rate, diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure; percent body fat and vital capacity, psychological variables, job anxiety, occupational stress, aerobic exercise, yogic exercise

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Authors: Anocha Kimkong

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This research paper, based on demographic variables, is aimed to study the behaviour of bookkeeping for household accounts of residents living in urban communities in Dusit District, Bangkok and to investigate factors that affected the behavior of bookkeeping. By use of non proportional stratified sampling technique of probability sampling, the research had a total of 247 samples. The systematic sampling technique was also utilized by selecting one household out of every 3 households. The demographic findings reported female respondents as the majority with an average age between 26-35 years old, having married status and having children. The respondents earn a living by selling, with an average income per month of between 5,001-15,000 Baht. Most of the families rent a house and each family have approximately 3-4 members. Furthermore, most of the household respondents used to be trained to do bookkeeping for household accounts. In addition, the factors in affecting the residents’ behaviour of doing household account bookkeeping included a dislike of numbers, inaccuracy of recording, availability of accounting counselors in the communities, people’s participation in trainings arranged by outside organizations.

Keywords: household account, bookkeeping, urban community, demographic variables

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Authors: Eleni Karantzola, Athanasios Karasimos, Vasiliki Makri, Ioanna Skouvara

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Historical linguistics unveils the historical depth of languages and traces variation and change by analyzing linguistic variables over time. This field of linguistics usually deals with a closed data set that can only be expanded by the (re)discovery of previously unknown manuscripts or editions. In some cases, it is possible to use (almost) the entire closed corpus of a language for research, as is the case with the Thesaurus Linguae Graecae digital library for Ancient Greek, which contains most of the extant ancient Greek literature. However, concerning ‘dynamic’ periods when the production and circulation of texts in printed as well as manuscript form have not been fully mapped, representative samples and corpora of texts are needed. Such material and tools are utterly lacking for Early Modern Greek (16th-18th c.). In this study, the principles of the creation of EMoGReC, a pilot representative corpus of Early Modern Greek (16th-18th c.) are presented. Its design follows the fundamental principles of historical corpora. The selection of texts aims to create a representative and balanced corpus that gives insight into diachronic, diatopic and diaphasic variation. The pilot sample includes data derived from fully machine-readable vernacular texts, which belong to 4-5 different textual genres and come from different geographical areas. We develop a hierarchical linguistic annotation scheme, further customized to fit the characteristics of our text corpus. Regarding variables and their variants, we use as a point of departure the bundle of twenty-four features (or categories of features) for prose demotic texts of the 16th c. Tags are introduced bearing the variants [+old/archaic] or [+novel/vernacular]. On the other hand, further phenomena that are underway (cf. The Cambridge Grammar of Medieval and Early Modern Greek) are selected for tagging. The annotated texts are enriched with metalinguistic and sociolinguistic metadata to provide a testbed for the development of the first comprehensive set of tools for the Greek language of that period. Based on a relational management system with interconnection of data, annotations, and their metadata, the EMoGReC database aspires to join a state-of-the-art technological ecosystem for the research of observed language variation and change using advanced computational approaches.

Keywords: early modern Greek, variation and change, representative corpus, diachronic variables.

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Authors: Fatemeh Valizadeh Gamchi, Edward L. Boone

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This research focuses on Lyme disease, a widespread infectious condition in the United States caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. It is critical to identify environmental and economic elements that are contributing to the spread of the disease. This study examined data from Virginia to identify a subset of explanatory variables significant for Lyme disease case numbers. To identify relevant variables and avoid overfitting, linear poisson, and regularization regression methods such as a ridge, lasso, and elastic net penalty were employed. Cross-validation was performed to acquire tuning parameters. The methods proposed can automatically identify relevant disease count covariates. The efficacy of the techniques was assessed using four criteria on three simulated datasets. Finally, using the Virginia Department of Health’s Lyme disease data set, the study successfully identified key factors, and the results were consistent with previous studies.

Keywords: lyme disease, Poisson generalized linear model, ridge regression, lasso regression, elastic net regression

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Authors: S. Dorbani, M. Badaoui, D. Benouar

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the building fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings of (6, 9, and 12-storey), with different floor plans: Symmetric, mono-symmetric, and unsymmetric. These structures are erected at different epicentral distances. Using the Boumerdes, Algeria (2003) earthquake data, we focused primarily on the establishment of the deterministic formulation linking the base shear force to two parameters: The first one is the fundamental period that represents the numerical fingerprint of the structure, and the second one is the epicentral distance used to represent the impact of the earthquake on this force. In a second step, with a view to highlight the effect of uncertainty in these parameters on the analyzed response, these parameters are modeled as random variables with a log-normal distribution. The variability of the coefficients of variation of the chosen uncertain parameters, on the statistics on the seismic base shear force, showed that the effect of uncertainty on fundamental period on this force statistics is low compared to the epicentral distance uncertainty influence.

Keywords: base shear force, fundamental period, epicentral distance, uncertainty, lognormal variables, statistics

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Authors: Víctor D. Rodríguez, Edith P. Estupiñán, Juan C. Martínez

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The evolution in mobile broadband technologies has allowed to increase the download rates in users considering the current services. The evaluation of technical parameters at the link level is of vital importance to validate the quality and veracity of the connection, thus avoiding large losses of data, time and productivity. Some of these failures may occur between the eNodeB (Evolved Node B) and the user equipment (UE), so the link between the end device and the base station can be observed. LTE (Long Term Evolution) is considered one of the IP-oriented mobile broadband technologies that work stably for data and VoIP (Voice Over IP) for those devices that have that feature. This research presents a technical analysis of the connection and channeling processes between UE and eNodeB with the TAC (Tracking Area Code) variables, and analysis of performance variables (Throughput, Signal to Interference and Noise Ratio (SINR)). Three measurement scenarios were proposed in the city of Bogotá using QualiPoc, where two operators were evaluated (Operator 1 and Operator 2). Once the data were obtained, an analysis of the variables was performed determining that the data obtained in transmission modes vary depending on the parameters BLER (Block Error Rate), performance and SNR (Signal-to-Noise Ratio). In the case of both operators, differences in transmission modes are detected and this is reflected in the quality of the signal. In addition, due to the fact that both operators work in different frequencies, it can be seen that Operator 1, despite having spectrum in Band 7 (2600 MHz), together with Operator 2, is reassigning to another frequency, a lower band, which is AWS (1700 MHz), but the difference in signal quality with respect to the establishment with data by the provider Operator 2 and the difference found in the transmission modes determined by the eNodeB in Operator 1 is remarkable.

Keywords: BLER, LTE, network, qualipoc, SNR.

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Authors: Masood Roohi, Amir Taghavipour

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This paper describes a strategy to develop an energy management system (EMS) for a charge-sustaining power-split hybrid electric vehicle. This kind of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) benefit from the advantages of both parallel and series architecture. However, it gets relatively more complicated to manage power flow between the battery and the engine optimally. The applied strategy in this paper is based on nonlinear model predictive control approach. First of all, an appropriate control-oriented model which was accurate enough and simple was derived. Towards utilization of this controller in real-time, the problem was solved off-line for a vast area of reference signals and initial conditions and stored the computed manipulated variables inside look-up tables. Look-up tables take a little amount of memory. Also, the computational load dramatically decreased, because to find required manipulated variables the controller just needed a simple interpolation between tables.

Keywords: hybrid electric vehicles, energy management system, nonlinear model predictive control, real-time

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Authors: Kumaresh Selvakumar, Man Young Kim

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A wet scrubber is an air pollution control device that removes particulate matter and acid gases from waste gas streams found in marine engine exhaust. If the flue gases in the exhaust is employed for CFD simulation, it makes the problem complicate due to the involvement of emissions. Owing to the fact, the scrubber system in this paper is handled with appropriate approach by designing with the flow properties of hot air and water droplet injections to evaluate the flow behavior inside the system. Since the wet scrubber has the capability of operating over wide range of mixture compositions, the current scrubber model with the designing approach doesn’t deviate from the actual behavior of the system. The scrubber design is constructed with engine exhaust pipe with the purpose of measuring the flow properties inside the scrubber by the influence of exhaust pipe characteristics. The flow properties are computed by the thermodynamic variables such as temperature and pressure with the flow velocity. In this work, numerical analyses have been conducted for the flow of fluid in the scrubber system through CFD technique.

Keywords: wet scrubber, water droplet injections, thermodynamic variables, CFD technique

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Authors: Mingbao Chen

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The blue economy is a new comprehensive marine economy integrated with resources, industries, and regions, and is an upgraded version of the marine economy. The blue economy attaches great importance to the coordinated development of the ecological environment and the economy, which is an emerging economic form advocated by all countries in the world. This paper constructs the model including four variables：natural capital, economic capital, intellectual capital, cultural capital. Theoretically, this paper deduces the function mechanism of variables on economic growth, and empirically calculates the driving force and influence of the blue economy on the national economy by using data of China's 2006-2015 year. The results show that natural capital and economic capital remain the main factors of blue growth in the blue economy. And with the development of economic society and technological progress, the role of intellectual capital and cultural capital is bigger and bigger. Therefore, promoting the development of marine science and technology and culture is the focus of the future blue economic development.

Keywords: blue growth, natural capital, intellectual capital, cultural capital

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Authors: S. Bagur, S. Verger, B. Mut

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Early childhood intervention (ECI) is the set of actions aimed at children aged 0-6 years with special needs, the family, and the environment that aim to improve child development and family well-being. Socio-educational intervention with children with disabilities and their families should be understood through the principles of family-centered practice (FCP). The multidisciplinary team of professionals carries out the intake, assessment, and intervention, understanding that families may experience mental health problems, parental role incompetence, or feelings of exclusion. This study examines the relationship between caregivers' levels of anxiety and depression and child development during the fostering and assessment phase. The design is quantitative, non-experimental, and cross-sectional. The sample consisted of 135 family members (78.5% female, 21.5% male) users of child development services in the Balearic Islands (Spain). Three questionnaires were completed: Anxiety and Depression Scale, Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL 1½-5), and sociodemographic questionnaire. The main results show that parents of children with special needs score higher on anxiety than on depression. It should be noted that professional discipline is a variable to be taken into account in relation to parents' perception of the improvement of their child's development. In addition, there is an association between the developmental subscales, where the more the child is affected, the more the parents' mental health is affected. In short, we propose a reflection on the application of FCP during the intervention, understanding the lack of professional training as a predictor of quality in early intervention. Likewise, future lines of research are proposed to improve early care practices.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, early childhood intervention, family

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Authors: Davod Ahmadigheidari

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The main objective of this study was to explore prevalence of anthropometric indicators as well the factors associated with the anthropometric indications in Mali. Data on 2015, downloaded from the website of Unicef, were analyzed. A total of 16,467 women (ages 15-49 years) and 16,467 children (ages 0-59 months) were selected for the sample. Different statistical analyses, such as descriptive, crosstabs and binary logistic regression form the basis of this study. Child anthropometric indicators (i.e., wasting, stunting, underweight and BMI for age) were used as the dependent variables. SPSS Syntax from WHO was used to create anthropometric indicators. Different factors, such as child’s sex, child’s age groups, child’s diseases symptoms (i.e., diarrhea, cough and fever), maternal education, household wealth index and area of residence were used as independent variables. Results showed more than forty percent of Malian households were in nutritional crises (stunting (42%) and underweight (34%). Findings from logistic regression analyses indicated that low score of wealth index, low maternal education and experience of diarrhea in last two weeks increase the probability of child malnutrition.

Keywords: Mali, wasting, stunting, underweight, BMI for age and wealth index

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Authors: Caroline A. Mathieu, Steve Geoffrion, Alexandre Dumais, Denis Lafortune

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In Quebec, troubled youths stay in a rehabilitation Center (RC), and educators in RC’S are particularly at risk of exposure to workplace violence. In order to manage youth violence and protect youth safety or their own, educators can resort to restraint and seclusion (R&S) strategies. To our best knowledge, in the literature, no study was found on the topic of R&S super users either in psychiatry or in a rehabilitation center. The objective of this study is to explore the differences between R&S super users and normal users among educators in terms of individual and environmental characteristics, over an eight weeks period. The 278 participants were volunteers recruited from 36 units that foster around 8 to 12 youths per unit, in a suburb of Montreal; Quebec, Canada. The results indicate that among the variables that were studied, only fear of violence and past exposure to violence at work characterized the R&S super users. These results suggest that exposure to violence in the workplace might increase the anticipation and fear of violence from a youth; this is concordant with the results indicating that these variables are the ones separating normal users from super users.

Keywords: seclusion and restraint, violence, youth, educators

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Authors: S. S. L. Andrade, E. A. Souza, L. C. L. Santos, C. Moraes, A. K. C. L. Lobato

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Biodiesel production using membrane reactor has become increasingly studied, because this process minimizes some of the main problems encountered in the biodiesel purification. The membrane reactor tries to minimize post-treatment steps, resulting in cost savings and enabling the competitiveness of biodiesel produced by homogeneous alkaline catalysis. This is due to the reaction and product separation may occur simultaneously. In order to evaluate the production of biodiesel from soybean oils using a tubular membrane reactor, a factorial experimental design was conducted (2³) to evaluate the influence of following variables: temperature (45 to 60 °C), catalyst concentration (0.5 to 1% by weight) and molar ratio of oil/methanol (1/6 to 1/9). In addition, the parametric sensitivity was evaluated by the analysis of variance and model through the response surface. The results showed a tendency of influence of the variables in the reaction conversion. The significance effect was higher for the catalyst concentration followed by the molar ratio of oil/methanol and finally the temperature. The best result was obtained under the conditions of 1% catalyst (KOH), molar ratio oil/methanol of 1/9 and temperature of 60 °C, resulting in an ester content of 99.07%.

Keywords: biodiesel production, factorial design, membrane reactor, soybean oil

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Authors: Hyelim Park, Juan Martin Zorrilla

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Climate change influences very widely and in various ways ocean ecosystem functioning. The consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems are an increase in temperature and irregular behavior of some solute concentrations. These changes would affect fisheries catches in several ways. Our aim is to assess the quantitative contribution change of fishery catches along the time and express them through four environment variables: Sea Surface Temperature (SST4) and the concentrations of Chlorophyll (CHL), Particulate Inorganic Carbon (PIC) and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) at two spatial scales: Global and the nineteen FAO Major Fishing Areas divisions. Data collection was based on the FAO FishStatJ 2014 database as well as MODIS Aqua satellite observations from 2002 to 2012. Some data had to be corrected and interpolated using some existing methods. As the results, a multivariable regression model for average Global fisheries captures contained temporal mean of SST4, standard deviation of SST4, standard deviation of CHL and standard deviation of PIC. Global vector auto-regressive (VAR) model showed that SST4 was a statistical cause of global fishery capture. To accommodate varying conditions in fishery condition and influence of climate change variables, a model was constructed for each FAO major fishing area. From the management perspective it should be recognized some limitations of the FAO marine areas division that opens to possibility to the discussion of the subdivision of the areas into smaller units. Furthermore, it should be treated that the contribution changes of fishery species and the possible environment factor for specific species at various scale levels.

Keywords: fisheries-catch, FAO FishStatJ, MODIS Aqua, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), VAR, granger causality

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Authors: Arun Dhakal, Geoff Cockfield, Tek Narayan Maraseni

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This paper attempts to fulfil the gap in measuring adoption in agroforestry studies. It explains the derivation of an index of adoption rate in a Nepalese context and examines the factors affecting adoption of agroforestry-based land management practice (AFLMP) in the Dhanusha District of Nepal. Data about the different farm practices and the factors (bio-physical, socio-economic) influencing adoption were collected during focus group discussion and from the randomly selected households using a household survey questionnaire, respectively. A multivariate regression model was used to determine the factors. The factors (variables) found to significantly affect adoption of AFLMP were: farm size, availability of irrigation water, education of household heads, agricultural labour force, frequency of visits by extension workers, expenditure on farm inputs purchase, household’s experience in agroforestry, and distance from home to government forest. The regression model explained about 75% of variation in adoption decision. The model rejected ‘erosion hazard’, ‘flood hazard’ and ‘gender’ as determinants of adoption, which in case of single agroforestry practice were major variables and played positive role. Out of eight variables, farm size played the most powerful role in explaining the variation in adoption, followed by availability of irrigation water and education of household heads. The results of this study suggest that policies to promote the provision of irrigation water, extension services and motivation to obtaining higher education would probably provide the incentive to adopt agroforestry elsewhere in the terai of Nepal.

Keywords: agroforestry, adoption index, determinants of adoption, step-wise linear regression, Nepal

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Authors: Hestika D. Waraningrum, Indriani N. Khairunnisa, Nabila Isnandini, Nadine Yasminah, Sekar A. Winesa

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Each individual’s ability to recall, whether they are male or female, is allegedly influenced by the environmental circumstances during the recalling process. The presence of a distraction is one of the environmental variables that affect recall ability in its capacity in the Short Term Memory. This study was made to see the difference in number of words that was successfully recalled by male participants and female participants with the presence of music as a distraction and also without music as a distraction. Data was taken using an experimental procedure from 75 female and male undergraduate students of Universitas Indonesia. The study design used was a 2x2 Factorial ANOVA, which aimed to see the difference between two variables, which were gender (male vs female) and the presence of a distraction (music serving as a distraction vs absence of music). The results indicated that there were no significant mean differences in the ability to recall between male and female participants. There are no significant mean differences between the presence and the absence of music as a distraction, but a significant interaction was found between gender and distraction with the ability to recall.

Keywords: college, gender, music, recall

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Authors: Herbert Ntuli, Edwin Muchapondwa

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This study used a sample of 336 households and community level data from 30 communities around the Gonarezhou National Park in Zimbabwe to analyse the association between ability to self-organize or cooperation and institutions on one hand and the relationship between success of biodiversity outcomes and cooperation on the other hand. Using both the ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimation with heteroskedasticity-based instruments, our results confirmed that sound institutions are indeed an important ingredient for cooperation in the respective communities and cooperation positively and significantly affects biodiversity outcomes. Group size, community level trust, the number of stakeholders and punishment were found to be important variables explaining cooperation. From a policy perspective, our results show that external enforcement of rules and regulations does not necessarily translate into sound ecological outcomes but better outcomes are attainable when punishment is rather endogenized by local communities. This seems to suggest that communities should rather be supported in such a way that robust institutions that are tailor made to suit the needs of local condition will emerge that will in turn facilitate good environmental husbandry. Cooperation, training, benefits, distance from the nearest urban canter, distance from the fence, social capital average age of household head, fence and information sharing were found to be very important variables explaining the success of biodiversity outcomes ceteris paribus. Government programmes should target capacity building in terms of institutional capacity and skills development in order to have a positive impact on biodiversity. Hence, the role of stakeholders (e.g., NGOs) in capacity building and government effort should complement each other to ensure that the necessary resources are mobilized and all communities receive the necessary training and resources.

Keywords: institutions, self-organize, common pool resources, wildlife, conservation, Zimbabwe

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Authors: A. Thakur, P. S. Panesar, M. S. Saini

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Extraction of lactic acid by emulsion liquid membrane technology (ELM) using n-trioctyl amine (TOA) in n-heptane as carrier within the organic membrane along with sodium carbonate as acceptor phase was optimized by using response surface methodology (RSM). A three level Box-Behnken design was employed for experimental design, analysis of the results and to depict the combined effect of five independent variables, vizlactic acid concentration in aqueous phase (cl), sodium carbonate concentration in stripping phase (cs), carrier concentration in membrane phase (ψ), treat ratio (φ), and batch extraction time (τ) with equal volume of organic and external aqueous phase on lactic acid extraction efficiency. The maximum lactic acid extraction efficiency (ηext) of 98.21%from aqueous phase in a batch reactor using ELM was found at the optimized values for test variables, cl, cs,, ψ, φ and τ as 0.06 [M], 0.18 [M], 4.72 (%,v/v), 1.98 (v/v) and 13.36 min respectively.

Keywords: emulsion liquid membrane, extraction, lactic acid, n-trioctylamine, response surface methodology

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Authors: B. A. Alabadan, E. S. Ajayi, C. A. Okolo

Abstract:

The storage losses recorded globally in maize (Zea mays) especially in the developing countries is worrisome. Certain degenerating changes in the physical characteristics (PC) of the grain occur due to the interaction between the stored maize and the immediate environment especially during long storage period. There has been tremendous reduction in the storage losses since the evolution of metallic silos. This study was carried out to assess the physical quality attributes of maize stored in 2500 MT and 1 MT metallic silos for a period of eight months. The PC evaluated includes percentage moisture content MC, insect damage ID, foreign matters FM, hectolitre weight HC, mould M and germinability VG. The evaluation of data obtained was done using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS 20) for windows evaluation version to determine significant levels and trend of deterioration (P < 0.05) for all the values obtained using Multiple Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and Duncan’s multivariate test. The result shows that the PC are significant with duration of storage at (P < 0.05) except MI and FM that are significant at (P > 0.05) irrespective of the size of the metallic silos. The average mean deviation for physical properties from the control in respect to duration of storage are as follows: MC 10.0 ±0.00%, HC 72.9 ± 0.44% ID 0.29 ± 0.00%, BG 0.55±0.05%, MI 0.00 ± 0.65%, FM 0.80± 0.20%, VG 100 ± 0.03%. The variables that were found to be significant (p < 0.05) with the position of grain in the bulk are VG, MI and ID while others are insignificant at (p > 0.05). Variables were all significant (p < 0.05) with the duration of storage with (0.00) significant levels, irrespective of the size of the metallic silos, but were insignificant with the position of the grain in the bulk (p > 0.05). From the results, it can be concluded that there is a slight decrease of the following variables, with time, HC, MC, and V, probably due to weather fluctuations and grain respiration, while FM, BG, ID and M were found to increase slightly probably due to insect activity in the bigger silos and loss of moisture. The size of metallic silos has no remarkable influence on the PC of stored maize (Zea mays). Germinability was found to be better with the 1 MT silos probably due to its hermetic nature. Smaller size metallic silos are preferred for storage of seeds but bigger silos largely depend on the position of the grains in the bulk.

Keywords: maize, storage, silo, physical characteristics

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Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

Abstract:

As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem.

Keywords: probabilistic uncertainty modeling, possibilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: A. Baviskar, C. Sandeep, K. Shankar

Abstract:

Solving Multi-objective Optimization Problems requires faster convergence and better spread. Though existing Evolutionary Algorithms (EA's) are able to achieve this, the computation effort can further be reduced by hybridizing them with innovative strategies. This study is focuses on converging to the pareto front faster while adapting the advantages of Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm-II (SPEA-II) for a better spread. Two different approaches based on optimizing the objective functions independently are implemented. In the first method, the decision variables corresponding to the optima of individual objective functions are strategically used to guide the search towards the pareto front. In the second method, boundary points of the pareto front are calculated and their decision variables are seeded to the initial population. Both the methods are applied to different constrained and unconstrained multi-objective test functions. It is observed that proposed guided search based algorithm gives better convergence and diversity than several well-known existing algorithms (such as NSGA-II and SPEA-II) in considerably less number of iterations.

Keywords: boundary points, evolutionary algorithms (EA's), guided search, strength pareto evolutionary algorithm-II (SPEA-II)

Procedia PDF Downloads 277