Search results for: rank estimates

Authors: Evrim Buyukaslan, Simona Jevsnik, Fatma Kalaoglu

Abstract:

Simulation of fabrics is more difficult than any other simulation due to complex mechanics of fabrics. Most of the virtual garment simulation software use mass-spring model and incorporate fabric mechanics into simulation models. The accuracy and fidelity of these virtual garment simulation software is a question mark. Drape is a subjective phenomenon and evaluation of drape has been studied since 1950’s. On the other hand, fabric and garment simulation is relatively new. Understanding drape perception of subjects when looking at fabric simulations is critical as virtual try-on becomes more of an issue by enhanced online apparel sales. Projected future of online apparel retailing is that users may view their avatars and try-on the garment on their avatars in the virtual environment. It is a well-known fact that users will not be eager to accept this innovative technology unless it is realistic enough. Therefore, it is essential to understand what users see when they are displaying fabrics in a virtual environment. Are they able to distinguish the differences between various fabrics in virtual environment? The purpose of this study is to investigate human perception when looking at a virtual fabric and determine the most visually noticeable drape parameter. To this end, five different fabrics are mechanically tested, and their drape simulations are generated by commercial garment simulation software (Optitex®). The simulation images are processed by an image analysis software to calculate drape parameters namely; drape coefficient, node severity, and peak angles. A questionnaire is developed to evaluate drape properties subjectively in a virtual environment. Drape simulation images are shown to 27 subjects and asked to rank the samples according to their questioned drape property. The answers are compared to the calculated drape parameters. The results show that subjects are quite sensitive to drape coefficient changes while they are not very sensitive to changes in node dimensions and node distributions.

Keywords: drape simulation, drape evaluation, fabric mechanics, virtual fabric

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Urvi Shah, Anmol Jain

Abstract:

The talks of a New Global Order have been doing rounds since the advent of 21st century. Similar change in global scenario was witnessed when the Bretton Woods System came up post the World War II. The changing world order has been analyzed by using the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates. The PPP and Nominal GDP methods show the purchasing power and financial background of the countries respectively, which helps in knowing both real and nominal financial strength of the country. Today, the rising powers of BRICS are posing new challenges to the world order shaped by the West. BRICS, i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, countries have at various instances represented the interests of developing countries at world forums. The pooled population of these nations accounts for 41.6% of the total world population which gives a very resilient idea of the workforce or human resources which is mobilized by them. They have a combined GDP (PPP) of around 30.57% of the total world GDP (PPP). The paper tries to analyze the prospects and impact of the New Development Bank (NDB) formerly known as the BRICS Bank, on world economy, which has the potential to act as a rival to West dominated IMF and World Bank. The paper studies the paradigm shift in the global order, impact of the NDB on third world nations and the developed nations. The study concluded that the relative positions of BRICS countries in the world economy are changing, irrespective of the measurement methodology being US$ or the PPP model.

Keywords: BRICS, New Development Bank, Nominal GDP, purchasing power parity

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Renata Rank Miranda, Arandi Ginane Bezerra, Ciro Alberto Oliveira Ribeiro, Marco AntôNio Ferreira Randi, Carmen Lúcia Voigt, Lilian Skytte, Kaare Lund Rasmussen, Francisco Filipak Neto, Frank Kjeldsen

Abstract:

Synergetic and antagonistic effects of drugs are well-known concerns in pharmacological assessments of dose and toxicity. Similar approach should be used in assessing cellular uptake and cytotoxicity of nanoparticles. Since nanoparticles are released into the aquatic environment they may interact with existing xenobiotics. Here we used biochemical assays and quantitative proteomics to assess the cytotoxicity of silver nanoparticles (AgNP) when human hepatoma HepG2 cells were co-exposed to 2 nm AgNP together with either Cd2+ or Hg2+ ions. Time-course experiments (2h, 4h, and 24h) were conducted to assess the first response to the exposure studies. The general trend was that a synergetic toxicological response was observed in cells exposed to both AgNP and Cd2+ or Hg2+, with AgNP and Cd2+ being more toxic. This was observed by a significant increase in the ROS and superoxide level of >35% in the case of AgNP+Cd2+ compared to the sum of responses of AgNP and Cd2+, individually. Metabolic activity and viability also dropped more for AgNP+Cd2+ (>10%) than for AgNP and Cd2+ combined. We used inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry to investigate if AgNP facilitates larger influx of toxic metal ions into HepG2 cells. Only Hg2+ ions was found to be more efficiently engulfed as the concentration of Hg2+ was found 2.8 times larger compared to exposure experiments with only Hg2+. This effect was not observed for Cd2+. We now continue with deep proteomics studies to obtain wider details on the mechanism of the toxicity related to AgNP, Cd2+, and AgNP+Cd2+, respectively.

Keywords: nanotoxicology, silver nanoparticles, proteomics, human cell line

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Sara D. Garduno-Diaz, Philippe Y. Garduno-Diaz

Abstract:

To date, one of the few comprehensive indicators for the measurement of food security is the Global Food Security Index. This index is a dynamic quantitative and qualitative bench marking model, constructed from 28 unique indicators, that measures drivers of food security across both developing and developed countries. Whereas the Global Food Security Index has been calculated across a set of 109 countries, in this paper we aim to present and compare, for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), 1) the Food Security Index scores achieved and 2) the data available on affordability, availability, and quality of food. The data for this work was taken from the latest (2014) report published by the creators of the GFSI, which in turn used information from national and international statistical sources. According to the 2014 Global Food Security Index, MENA countries rank from place 17/109 (Israel, although with resent political turmoil this is likely to have changed) to place 91/109 (Yemen) with household expenditure spent in food ranging from 15.5% (Israel) to 60% (Egypt). Lower spending on food as a share of household consumption in most countries and better food safety net programs in the MENA have contributed to a notable increase in food affordability. The region has also however experienced a decline in food availability, owing to more limited food supplies and higher volatility of agricultural production. In terms of food quality and safety the MENA has the top ranking country (Israel). The most frequent challenges faced by the countries of the MENA include public expenditure on agricultural research and development as well as volatility of agricultural production. Food security is a complex phenomenon that interacts with many other indicators of a country’s well-being; in the MENA it is slowly but markedly improving.

Keywords: diet, food insecurity, global food security index, nutrition, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Panupong Makvichian

Abstract:

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is nowadays a common technology that improves navigation functions in our life. Additionally, GNSS is also being employed on behalf of an accurate atmospheric sensor these times. Meteorology is a practical application of GNSS, which is unnoticeable in the background of people’s life. GNSS Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is a positioning method that requires data from a single dual-frequency receiver and precise information about satellite positions and satellite clocks. In addition, careful attention to mitigate various error sources is required. All the above data are combined in a sophisticated mathematical algorithm. At this point, the research is going to demonstrate how GNSS and PPP method is capable to provide high-precision estimates, such as 3D positions or Zenith tropospheric delays (ZTDs). ZTDs combined with pressure and temperature information allows us to estimate the water vapor in the atmosphere as precipitable water vapor (PWV). If the process is replicated for a network of GNSS sensors, we can create thematic maps that allow extract water content information in any location within the network area. All of the above are possible thanks to the advances in GNSS data processing. Therefore, we are able to use GNSS data for climatic trend analysis and acquisition of the further knowledge about the atmospheric water content.

Keywords: GNSS, precise point positioning, Zenith tropospheric delays, precipitable water vapor

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Charles L. Sigmund, M. A. Aed, Lissa Graciela Rivera Picado

Abstract:

One critical component of the training development process is the evaluation of the impact and value of the program. Oftentimes, however, learning organizations bypass this phase either because they are unfamiliar with effective methods for measuring the success or effect of the training or because they believe the effort to be too time-consuming or cumbersome. As a result, most organizations that do conduct evaluation limit their scope to Kirkpatrick L1 (reaction) and L2 (learning), or at most carry through to L4 (results). In 2021 Microsoft made a strategic decision to assess the measurable and monetized impact for all training launches and designed a scalable and program-agnostic tool for providing full-scale L5 return on investment (ROI) estimates for each. In producing this measurement tool, the learning and development organization built a framework for making business prioritizations and resource allocations that is based on the projected ROI of a course. The analysis and measurement posed by this process use a combination of training data and operational metrics to calculate the effective net benefit derived from a given training effort. Business experts in the learning field generally consider a 10% ROI to be an outstanding demonstration of the value of a project. Initial findings from this work applied to a critical customer-facing program yielded an estimated ROI of more than 49%. This information directed the organization to make a more concerted and concentrated effort in this specific line of business and resulted in additional investment in the training methods and technologies being used.

Keywords: evaluation, measurement, return on investment, value

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Rara Wulan Anggareni, Narita Putri, Riski Septianing Astuti

Abstract:

Breastfeeding is a key to prevent mortality and morbidity in children. It is also the second highest risk responsible for Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) among children below five years old. UNICEF estimates that during 1995 – 2003, there are only about 38% infants in developing countries who get to be exclusively breastfed during the first six months of their lives. According to Demography and Health Survey in Indonesia 2007, breastfeed practice rate still considered as low which is about 41%. One of the factors causing the low breastfeed practice rate in Indonesia is the anxiety and postpartum depression, and also the weanling dilemma in which mother feels that her breastmilk cannot suffice infant needs. Those factors finally resulting into low or even stopped production of breastmilk. Breastmilk production can be enhanced by consuming food containing phytosterol and lactogoga effect. Food with the highest phytosterol level is Sauropus androgynus (L.) Merr leaf (merr leaf). In this study, we made alternative food which named Chocomerr for breastfeeding mothers. Chocomerr consists of merr leaves which have lactogoga effect and chocolate for relaxation. Based on organoleptic tests conducted towards 2 age groups, which are 18 – 21 and 25 – 40 years old, this product gets good acceptance in taste, texture, and colour categories. Chocomerr can be used as an alternative way for increasing breastmilk production to aim for the decreasing number of DALYs among children aged under 5 years old.

Keywords: breastfeeding, increasing, chocolate, merr leaves

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Siu-Siu Guo, Qingxuan Shi

Abstract:

In this paper, single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems to white noise and colored noise excitations are investigated. By expressing colored noise excitation as a second-order filtered white noise process and introducing colored noise as an additional state variable, the equation of motion for SDOF system under colored noise is then transferred artificially to multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) system under white noise excitations. As a consequence, corresponding Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation governing the joint probabilistic density function (PDF) of state variables increases to 4-dimension (4-D). Solution procedure and computer programme become much more sophisticated. The exponential-polynomial closure (EPC) method, widely applied for cases of SDOF systems under white noise excitations, is developed and improved for cases of systems under colored noise excitations and for solving the complex 4-D FPK equation. On the other hand, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is performed to test the approximate EPC solutions. Two examples associated with Gaussian and non-Gaussian colored noise excitations are considered. Corresponding band-limited power spectral densities (PSDs) for colored noise excitations are separately given. Numerical studies show that the developed EPC method provides relatively accurate estimates of the stationary probabilistic solutions. Moreover, statistical parameter of mean-up crossing rate (MCR) is taken into account, which is important for reliability and failure analysis.

Keywords: filtered noise, narrow-banded noise, nonlinear dynamic, random vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Sogol Zarafshan

Abstract:

The present study aimed to identify important factors affecting the effectiveness of quality control circles in a hospital, as well as rank them using a combination of fuzzy VIKOR and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). The study population consisted of five academic members and five experts in the field of nursing working in a hospital, who were selected using a purposive sampling method. Also, a sample of 107 nurses was selected through a simple random sampling method using their employee codes and the random-number table. The required data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire which consisted of 12 factors. The validity of this questionnaire was confirmed through giving the opinions of experts and academic members who participated in the present study, as well as performing confirmatory factor analysis. Its reliability also was verified (α=0.796). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS 22.0 and LISREL 8.8, as well as VIKOR–GRA and IPA methods. The results of ranking the factors affecting the effectiveness of quality control circles showed that the highest and lowest ranks were related to ‘Managers’ and supervisors’ support’ and ‘Group leadership’. Also, the highest hospital performance was for factors such as ‘Clear goals and objectives’ and ‘Group cohesiveness and homogeneity’, and the lowest for ‘Reward system’ and ‘Feedback system’, respectively. The results showed that although ‘Training the members’, ‘Using the right tools’ and ‘Reward system’ were factors that were of great importance, the organization’s performance for these factors was poor. Therefore, these factors should be paid more attention by the studied hospital managers and should be improved as soon as possible.

Keywords: Quality control circles, Fuzzy VIKOR, Grey Relational Analysis, Importance–Performance Analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Yao Song

Abstract:

Objectives: We aimed to explore the clinicodemographic characteristics and prognosis of grey zone squamous cell cancer (GZSCC) located in the overlapping or ambiguous area of the oral cavity and oropharynx and to identify valuable factors that would improve its differential diagnosis and prognosis. Methods: Information of GZSCC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was compared to patients with an oral cavity (OCSCC) and oropharyngeal (OPSCC) squamous cell carcinomas with corresponding HPV status, respectively. Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank test and multivariate Cox regression analysis were applied to assess associations between clinical characteristics and overall survival (OS). A predictive model integrating age, gender, marital status, HPV status, and staging variables was conducted to classify GZSCC patients into three risk groups and verified internally by 10-fold cross validation. Results: A total of 3318 GZSCC, 10792 OPSCC, and 6656 OCSCC patients were identified. HPV-positive GZSCC patients had the best 5-year OS as HPV-positive OPSCC (81% vs. 82%). However, the 5-year OS of HPV-negative/unknown GZSCC (43%/42%) was the worst among all groups, indicating that HPV status and the overlapping nature of tumors were valuable prognostic predictors in GZSCC patients. Compared with the strategy of dividing GZSCC into two groups by HPV status, the predictive model integrating more variables could additionally identify a unique high-risk GZSCC group with the lowest OS rate. Conclusions: GZSCC patients had distinct clinical characteristics and prognoses compared with OPSCC and OCSCC; integrating HPV status and other clinical factors could help distinguish GZSCC and predict their prognosis.

Keywords: GZSCC, OCSCC, OPSCC, HPV

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Jolien Rijlaarsdam, Charlotte A. M. Cecil, J. Marieke Buil, Pol A. C. Van Lier, Edward D. Barker

Abstract:

Although there is mounting evidence that the experience of being bullied associates with both internalizing and externalizing symptoms, it is not known yet whether the identified associations are specific to these symptoms or shared between them. The primary focus of this study is to assess the prospective associations of bullying exposure with both general and specific (i.e., internalizing, externalizing) factors of psychopathology. This study included data from 6,210 children participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Child bullying was measured by self-report at ages 8 and 10 years. Child psychopathology symptoms were assessed by parent-interview, using the Development and Well-being Assessment (DAWBA) at ages 7 and 13 years. Bullying exposure is significantly associated with the general psychopathology factor in early adolescence. In particular, chronically victimized youth exposed to multiple forms of bullying (i.e., both overt and relational) showed the highest levels of general psychopathology. Bullying exposure is also associated with both internalizing and externalizing factors from the correlated-factors model. However, the effect estimates for these factors decreased considerably in size and dropped to insignificant for the internalizing factor after extracting the shared variance that belongs to the general factor of psychopathology. In an integrative longitudinal model, higher levels of general psychopathology at age seven are associated with bullying exposure at age eight, which, in turn, is associated with general psychopathology at age 13 through its two-year continuity. Findings suggest that exposure to bullying is a risk factor for a more general vulnerability to psychopathology through mutually influencing relationships.

Keywords: bullying exposure, externalizing, general psychopathology, internalizing, longitudinal

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Cromwell F. Gopo, Joy L. Picar

Abstract:

This study aimed to predict the employability of senior high school graduates for S.Y. 2018- 2019 in the Davao del Norte Division through quantitative research design using the descriptive status and predictive approaches among the indicated parameters, namely gender, school type, academics, academic award recipient, skills, values, and strand. The respondents of the study were the 33 secondary schools offering senior high school programs identified through simple random sampling, which resulted in 1,530 cases of graduates’ secondary data, which were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and binary logistic regression. Results showed that the majority of the senior high school graduates who come from large schools were females. Further, less than half of these graduates received any academic award in any semester. In general, the graduates’ performance in academics, skills, and values were proficient. Moreover, less than half of the graduates were not employed. Then, those who were employed were either contractual, casual, or part-time workers dominated by GAS graduates. Further, the predictors of employability were gender and the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) strand, while the remaining variables did not add significantly to the model. The null hypothesis had been rejected as the coefficients of the predictors in the binary logistic regression equation did not take the value of 0. After utilizing the model, it was concluded that Technical-Vocational-Livelihood (TVL) graduates except ICT had greater estimates of employability.

Keywords: employability, senior high school graduates, Davao del Norte, Philippines

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

Abstract:

The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to reduce seismic damage. The inter-story drift ratio which is the major index of the seismic capacity assessment is employed for estimating the seismic damage of buildings. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the structural responses of building demands significantly high computational cost due to increasing number of high-rise and large buildings. To estimate the inter-story drift ratio of buildings from the earthquake efficiently, this paper suggests the estimation method of inter-story drift for buildings using an artificial neural network (ANN). In the method, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is integrated with optimization algorithm to optimize the variable through evolutionary learning that refers to evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN). The estimation method estimates the inter-story drift without seismic response analysis when the new earthquakes are subjected to buildings. The effectiveness of the estimation method is verified through a simulation using multi-degree of freedom system.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, inter-story drift ratio, artificial neural network, radial basis function neural network, genetic algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Zelalem Markos Borko

Abstract:

Work-related stress is a reaction that occurs when the work weight progress toward becoming excessive. Therefore, unless properly managed, stress leads to high employee turnover, decreased performance, illness and absenteeism. Yet, little has been addressed regarding work-related stress and its predictors in the study area. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess stress prevalence and its predictors in the study area. To that effect, a cross-sectional study design was conducted on 281 employees from the Ethiopian Federal Bureau of Investigation by using stratified random sampling techniques. Survey questionnaire scales were employed to collect data. Data were analyzed by percentage, Pearson correlation coefficients, simple linear regression, multiple linear regressions, independent t-test and one-way ANOVA statistical techniques. In the present study13.9% of participants faced high stress, whereas 13.5% of participants faced low stress and the rest 72.6% of officers experienced moderate stress. There is no significant group difference among workers due to age, gender, marital status, educational level, years of service and police rank. This study concludes that factors such as role conflict, performance over-utilization, role ambiguity, and qualitative and quantitative role overload together predict 39.6% of work-related stress. This indicates that 60.4% of the variation in stress is explained by other factors, so other additional research should be done to identify additional factors predicting stress. To prevent occupational stress among police, the Ethiopian Federal Bureau of Investigation should develop strategies based on factors that will help to develop stress reduction management.

Keywords: work-related stress, Ethiopian federal bureau of investigation, predictors, Addis Ababa

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: T. Jivita, M. S. Salmiah

Abstract:

The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence of smoking, reasons for tried smoking, factors that influence smoking, and knowledge level on health risk among male Tamil primary school students. Seven urban Tamil primary schools in Kuala Lumpur were identified based on cluster sampling. A cross-sectional study was conducted in May 2014 and a total of 380 male children in standard 4 and 5 were selected. Survey included information on history of ever smoking even a puff, smoking a whole cigarette, smoking every day at least for 7 days, reasons for tried smoking, potential factors of smoking and knowledge related to smoking and health. Fifty seven had previously smoked, with a prevalence of 15.0% (95% CI = 11.4, 18.6) and 17 had smoked a whole cigarette (4.5%, 95% CI = 2.42, 6.58) while 8 had at least smoked 7 days continuously (2.1%, 95% CI = 0.66, 3.54). The reasons for tried smoking were because of curiosity (63.2%), it is not allowed (42.6%), it is relaxing (35.2%), it is cool (33.3%), to lose weight (20.4%), style (1.8%), by mistake (0.5%), for prayers purpose (0.3%), given by uncle (0.3%), and introduced by elder brother (0.3%). None of these reasons were associated with age factors (p > 0.05). Of those who had smoked a whole cigarette, 42.9% were significantly influenced by father (χ2 (1) = 6.42, p = 0.040) and 47.8% were significantly influenced by friends (χ2 (2) = 6.27, p = 0.043). Overall 91.5% had good level of knowledge about smoking, where the majority knew that smoking was dangerous to their health. However only 61.7% and 63.1% of them knew that smoking can cause high blood pressure and stroke, respectively. There is no significant different in mean rank between 10 years old and 11 years old students (p=0.987 < 0.05) for level of knowledge, tested by Mann-Whitney U Test. Odds of smoking increased 1.37 times having seen actors smoking (95% CI= 1.01, 1.86), 1.55 times having a father who smokes (95% CI= 1.26, 1.92), 1.64 times having siblings who smokes (95% CI= 1.32, 2.04), and 10.55 times having friends who offered cigarette (95% CI= 4.17, 26.68). As a conclusion, cessation of smoking in family members, who are role models, so as to reduce rates to taking up smoking among children.

Keywords: factors influence, knowledge on smoking, prevalence on smoking, reasons

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Hazaila Binti Hassan, Abu Yazid Bin Abu Bakar, Salleh Amat

Abstract:

This study is to get the validity and reliability of the questionnaire for behaviour change on low-performing officers. This study aimed to develop and evaluate the behaviour of low performing officers. There are 75 items in this questionnaire which involves 5 subscales, which are the 5 dimensions intended to be studied: 1st emotional stability, 2nd psycho-spiritual enhancement, 3rd social skills development, 4th cognitive and rationality improvement and 5th behavioural alignment and adjustment. There are 2 processes in this research whereby to check the validity and reliability. Both use quantitative methods. Validity content testing has been conducted to validate the behavioural change questionnaire of the low performing officers. For the face validity, 4 people are involved, two are psychologists who carried out the program and the other two are officers of the same rank, i.e. supporting officers. They are involved in correction of sentences, languages, and grammar as well as the sentence structures so that it tallies with the purpose of studies. The questionnaire underwent content validity by the experts. Five experts are appointed to attend this session, 3 are directly involved in the construction of this questionnaire and 2 others are experts from the university with a background in questionnaire development. The result shows that the content validity obtained a high coefficient of 0.745 with a minimum and maximum value of more than 0.60 which satisfies the characteristic of Content Value Ratio. The Cronbach’s alpha result is 0.867. The highest scores are the behavioural alignment and adjustment sub-scale recorded the highest value, followed by social skills development sub-scale, cognitive and rational improvements sub-scale, psycho-spiritual enhancement sub-scale, and lastly emotional stability. Therefore, both of validity and reliability result were accepted that this questionnaire is valid and reliable can be used in the study of behaviour changes of low performing officers in the civil service.

Keywords: content validity, reliability, five dimension, low-performing officers, questionnaire

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Ajai Singh

Abstract:

Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Anisul Islam

Abstract:

The U.S. has a very strong trade relationship with China but with a large and persistent trade deficit. Some has argued that the undervalued Chinese Yuan is to be blamed for the persistent trade deficit. The empirical results are mixed at best. This paper empirically estimates the U.S. export function along with the U.S. import function with its trade with China with the purpose of testing for the existence of the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition as well for the possible existence of the J-curve hypothesis. Annual export and import data will be utilized for as long as the time series data exists. The export and import functions will be estimated using advanced econometric techniques, along with appropriate diagnostic tests performed to examine the validity and reliability of the estimated results. The annual time-series data covers from 1975 to 2022 with a sample size of 48 years, the longest period ever utilized before in any previous study. The data is collected from several sources, such as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, IMF Financial Statistics, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, and several other sources. The paper is expected to shed important light on the ongoing debate regarding the persistent U.S. trade deficit with China and the policies that may be useful to reduce such deficits over time. As such, the paper will be of great interest for the academics, researchers, think tanks, global organizations, and policy makers in both China and the U.S.

Keywords: exports, imports, marshall-lerner condition, j-curve hypothesis, united states, china

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Nanine Fouche

Abstract:

The Cape Flats is a low-lying sand-covered expanse of approximately 460 square kilometres, situated to the southeast of the central business district of Cape Town in the Western Cape of South Africa. The aeolian sands masking this area are often loose and compressible in the upper 1m to 1.5m of the surface, and there is a general exceedance of the maximum allowable settlement in these sands. The settlement of shallow foundations on Cape Flats sands is commonly predicted using the results of in-situ tests such as the SPT or DPSH due to the difficulty of retrieving undisturbed samples for laboratory testing. Varying degrees of accuracy and reliability are associated with these methods. More recently, shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles obtained from seismic testing, such as continuous surface wave tests (CSW), are being used for settlement prediction. Such predictions have the advantage of considering non-linear stress-strain behaviour of soil and the degradation of stiffness with increasing strain. CSW tests are rarely executed in the Cape Flats, whereas SPT’s are commonly performed. For this reason, and to facilitate better settlement predictions in Cape Flats sand, equations representing shear wave velocity (Vs) as a function of SPT blow count (N60) and vertical effective stress (v’) were generated by statistical regression of site investigation data. To reveal the most appropriate method of overburden correction, analyses were performed with a separate overburden term (Pa/σ’v) as well as using stress corrected shear wave velocity and SPT blow counts (correcting Vs. and N60 to Vs1and (N1)60respectively). Shear wave velocity profiles and SPT blow count data from three sites masked by Cape Flats sands were utilised to generate 80 Vs-SPT N data pairs for analysis. Investigated terrains included sites in the suburbs of Athlone, Muizenburg, and Atlantis, all underlain by windblown deposits comprising fine and medium sand with varying fines contents. Elastic settlement analysis was also undertaken for the Cape Flats sands, using a non-linear stepwise method based on small-strain stiffness estimates, which was obtained from the best Vs-N60 model and compared to settlement estimates using the general elastic solution with stiffness profiles determined using Stroud’s (1989) and Webb’s (1969) SPT N60-E transformation models. Stroud’s method considers strain level indirectly whereasWebb’smethod does not take account of the variation in elastic modulus with strain. The expression of Vs. in terms of N60 and Pa/σv’ derived from the Atlantis data set revealed the best fit with R2 = 0.83 and a standard error of 83.5m/s. Less accurate Vs-SPT N relations associated with the combined data set is presumably the result of inversion routines used in the analysis of the CSW results showcasing significant variation in relative density and stiffness with depth. The regression analyses revealed that the inclusion of a separate overburden term in the regression of Vs and N60, produces improved fits, as opposed to the stress corrected equations in which the R2 of the regression is notably lower. It is the correction of Vs and N60 to Vs1 and (N1)60 with empirical constants ‘n’ and ‘m’ prior to regression, that introduces bias with respect to overburden pressure. When comparing settlement prediction methods, both Stroud’s method (considering strain level indirectly) and the small strain stiffness method predict higher stiffnesses for medium dense and dense profiles than Webb’s method, which takes no account of strain level in the determination of soil stiffness. Webb’s method appears to be suitable for loose sands only. The Versak software appears to underestimate differences in settlement between square and strip footings of similar width. In conclusion, settlement analysis using small-strain stiffness data from the proposed Vs-N60 model for Cape Flats sands provides a way to take account of the non-linear stress-strain behaviour of the sands when calculating settlement.

Keywords: sands, settlement prediction, continuous surface wave test, small-strain stiffness, shear wave velocity, penetration resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Mahmoud Zakeri Niri, Saber Moazami, Arman Abdollahipour, Hossein Ghalkhani

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to hydrological evaluation of four widely-used satellite precipitation products named PERSIANN, TMPA-3B42V7, TMPA-3B42RT, and CMORPH over Zarinehrood basin in Iran. For this aim, at first, daily streamflow of Sarough-cahy river of Zarinehrood basin was simulated using IHACRES rainfall-runoff model with daily rain gauge and temperature as input data from 1988 to 2008. Then, the model was calibrated in two different periods through comparison the simulated discharge with the observed one at hydrometric stations. Moreover, in order to evaluate the performance of satellite precipitation products in streamflow simulation, the calibrated model was validated using daily satellite rainfall estimates from the period of 2003 to 2008. The obtained results indicated that TMPA-3B42V7 with CC of 0.69, RMSE of 5.93 mm/day, MAE of 4.76 mm/day, and RBias of -5.39% performs better simulation of streamflow than those PERSIANN and CMORPH over the study area. It is noteworthy that in Iran, the availability of ground measuring station data is very limited because of the sparse density of hydro-meteorological networks. On the other hand, large spatial and temporal variability of precipitations and lack of a reliable and extensive observing system are the most important challenges to rainfall analysis, flood prediction, and other hydrological applications in this country.

Keywords: hydrological evaluation, IHACRES, satellite precipitation product, streamflow simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: G. M. B. P. Abeysekara, W. A. D. C. Wijerathna

Abstract:

Terminal choice from the multiple terminals region is not a simple decision and it is very complex, because shipping lines should consider on influential factors for the terminal choice at once according to their requirement. Therefore, terminal choice is a multiple criterion decision making (MCDM) situation under a specially designed decision hierarchy. Identification of perspective of shipping lines regarding terminal choice is vital important for the decision makers regarding container terminals. Thus this study is evaluated perception on main and feeder shipping lines’ regarding port of Colombo container terminals, and ranked terminals according to shipping lines preference. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model is adapted to this study, since it has features similar to the MCDM, it is weighted every influential factor by using pair wise comparisons, and consistency of the decision makers’ judgments are checked to evaluate trustworthiness of gathered data. And rating method is used to rank the terminals within Port of Colombo by assigning particular preference values with respect to the criteria and sub criteria. According to the findings of this study, main lines’ mainly concern on water depth of approach channel, depth of berth, handling charges and handling equipment facilities. And feeder lines’ main concerns were handling equipment facilities, loading and discharging efficiency, depth of berth and handling charges. Findings of the study suggested concentrating regarding the emphasized areas in order to enhance the competitiveness of terminals, and to increase number of vessel callings at the Port of Colombo. Application of above finding of the terminals within Port of Colombo lead to a far better competition among terminals and would uplift the overall level of services.

Keywords: AHP, Main and feeder shipping lines, criteria, sub criteria

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Yosra Ben Mhamed

Abstract:

Most previous research that investigates the importance of earnings volatility for a firm’s value has focused on the effects of earnings volatility on the cost of capital. Many study illustrate that earnings volatility can reduce the firm’s value by enhancing the cost of capital. However, a few recent studies directly examine the relation between earnings volatility and subsequent earnings levels. In our study, we further explore the role of volatility in forecasting. Our study makes two primary contributions to the literature. First, taking into account the level of current firm’s performance, we provide causal theory to the link between volatility and earnings predictability. Nevertheless, previous studies testing the linearity of this relationship have not mentioned any underlying theory. Secondly, our study contributes to the vast body of fundamental analysis research that identifies a set of variables that improve valuation, by showing that earnings volatility affects the estimation of future earnings. Projections of earnings are used by valuation research and practice to derive estimates of firm value. Since we want to examine the impact of volatility on earnings predictability, we sort the sample into three portfolios according to the level of their earnings volatility in ascending order. For each quintile, we present the predictability coefficient. In a second test, each of these portfolios is, then, sorted into three further quintiles based on their level of current earnings. These yield nine quintiles. So we can observe whether volatility strongly predicts decreases on earnings predictability only for highest quintile of earnings. In general, we find that earnings volatility has an inverse relationship with earnings predictability. Our results also show that the sensibility of earnings predictability to ex-ante volatility is more pronounced among profitability firms. The findings are most consistent with overinvestment and persistence explanations.

Keywords: earnings volatility, earnings predictability, earnings persistence, current profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Gurjeet Singh, Rabindra K. Panda

Abstract:

Soil moisture is a key hydrologic state variable and is intrinsically linked to the Earth's water, climate and carbon cycles. On ecological point of view, the soil moisture is a fundamental natural resource providing the transpirable water for plants. Soil moisture varies both temporally and spatially due to spatiotemporal variation in rainfall, vegetation cover, soil properties and topography. Satellite derived soil moisture provides spatio-temporal extensive data. However, the spatial resolution of a typical satellite (L-band radiometry) is of the order of tens of kilometers, which is not good enough for developing efficient agricultural water management schemes at the field scale. In the present study, the soil moisture from radiometer data has been disaggregated using blending approach to achieve higher resolution soil moisture data. The radiometer estimates of soil moisture at a 40 km resolution have been disaggregated to 10 km, 5 km and 1 km resolutions. The disaggregated soil moisture was compared with the observed data, consisting of continuous sensor based soil moisture profile measurements, at three monitoring sites and extensive spatial near-surface soil moisture measurements, concurrent with satellite monitoring in the 500 km2 study watershed in the Eastern India. The estimated soil moisture status at different spatial scales can help in developing efficient agricultural water management schemes to increase the crop production and water use efficiency.

Keywords: disaggregation, eastern India, radiometers, soil moisture, water use efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Sofia F. Franco, Jacob Macdonald

Abstract:

This paper estimates the value of urban public street trees and their complementary and substitution value with other broader urban amenities and dis-amenities via the residential housing market. We estimate a lower bound value on a city’s tree amenities under instrumental variable and geographic regression discontinuity approaches with an application to Lisbon, Portugal. For completeness, we also explore how urban trees and in particular public street trees impact house prices across the city. Finally, we jointly analyze the planting and maintenance costs and benefits of urban street trees. The estimated value of all public trees in Lisbon is €8.84M. When considering specifically trees planted alongside roads and in public squares, the value is €6.06M or €126.64 per tree. This value is conditional on the distribution of trees in terms of their broader density, with higher effects coming from the overall greening of larger areas of the city compared to the greening of the direct neighborhood. Detrimental impacts are found when the number of trees is higher near street canyons, where they may exacerbate the stagnation of air pollution from traffic. Urban street trees also have important spillover benefits due to pollution mitigation around €6.21 million, or an additional €129.93 per tree. There are added benefits of €26.32 and €28.58 per tree in terms of flooding and heat mitigation, respectively. With significant resources and policies aimed at urban greening, the value obtained is shown to be important for discussions on the benefits of urban trees as compared to mitigation and abatement costs undertaken by a municipality.

Keywords: urban public goods, urban street trees, spatial boundary discontinuities, geospatial and remote sensing methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: C. A. Roberts, S. L. Mascaro, J. R. Gerrish, J. L. Horner

Abstract:

Management-intensive Grazing (MiG) is a practice that rotates livestock through paddocks in a way that best matches the nutrient requirements of the animal to the yield and quality of the pasture. In the USA, MiG has been taught to livestock producers throughout the state of Missouri in 2- and 3-day workshops called “Missouri Grazing Schools.” The economic impact of these schools was quantified using IMPLAN software. The model included hectares of adoption, animal performance, carrying capacity, and input costs. To date, MiG, as taught in the Missouri Grazing Schools, has been implemented on more than 70,000 hectares in Missouri. The economic impact of these schools is presently $125 million USD per year added to the state economy. This magnitude of impact is the result not only of widespread adoption but also because of increased livestock carrying capacity; in Missouri, a capacity increase of 25 to 30% has been well documented. Additional impacts have been MiG improving forage quality and reducing the cost of feed and fertilizer. The environmental impact of MiG in the state of Missouri is currently being estimated. Environmental impact takes into account the reduction in the application of commercial fertilizers; in MiG systems, nitrogen is supplied by N fixation from legumes, and much of the P and K is recycled naturally by well-distributed manure. The environmental impact also estimates carbon sequestration and methane production; MiG can increase carbon sequestration and reduce methane production in comparison to default grazing practices and feedlot operations in the USA.

Keywords: agricultural education, forage quality, management-intensive grazing, nutrient cycling, stock density, sustainable agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Betim Bahtiri, B. Arash, R. Rolfes

Abstract:

Epoxy-based materials are frequently exposed to high-humidity environments in many engineering applications. As a result, their material properties would be degraded by water absorption. A full characterization of the material properties under hygrothermal conditions requires time- and cost-consuming experimental tests. To gain insights into the physics of diffusion mechanisms, atomistic simulations have been shown to be effective tools. Concerning the diffusion of water in polymers, spatial trajectories of water molecules are obtained from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations allowing the interpretation of diffusion pathways at the nanoscale in a polymer network. Conventional MD simulations of water diffusion in amorphous polymers lead to discrepancies at low temperatures due to the short timescales of the simulations. In the proposed model, this issue is solved by using a combined scheme of autonomous basin climbing (ABC) with kinetic Monte Carlo and reactive MD simulations to investigate the diffusivity of water molecules in epoxy resins across a wide range of temperatures. It is shown that the proposed simulation framework estimates kinetic properties of water diffusion in epoxy resins that are consistent with experimental observations and provide a predictive tool for investigating the diffusion of small molecules in other amorphous polymers.

Keywords: epoxy resins, water diffusion, autonomous basin climbing, kinetic Monte Carlo, reactive molecular dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Okhee Woo

Abstract:

Purpose: With increasing concern of individual radiation exposure doses, studies analyzing radiation dosage in breast imaging modalities are required. Aim of this study is to compare radiation dosage and image quality between digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and full-field digital mammography (FFDM). Methods and Materials: 303 patients (mean age 52.1 years) who studied DBT and FFDM were retrospectively reviewed. Radiation dosage data were obtained by radiation dosage scoring and monitoring program: Radimetrics (Bayer HealthCare, Whippany, NJ). Entrance dose and mean glandular doses in each breast were obtained in both imaging modalities. To compare the image quality of DBT with two-dimensional synthesized mammogram (2DSM) and FFDM, 5-point scoring of lesion clarity was assessed and the better modality between the two was selected. Interobserver performance was compared with kappa values and diagnostic accuracy was compared using McNemar test. The parameters of radiation dosages (entrance dose, mean glandular dose) and image quality were compared between two modalities by using paired t-test and Wilcoxon rank sum test. Results: For entrance dose and mean glandular doses for each breasts, DBT had lower values compared with FFDM (p-value < 0.0001). Diagnostic accuracy did not have statistical difference, but lesion clarity score was higher in DBT with 2DSM and DBT was chosen as a better modality compared with FFDM. Conclusion: DBT showed lower radiation entrance dose and also lower mean glandular doses to both breasts compared with FFDM. Also, DBT with 2DSM had better image quality than FFDM with similar diagnostic accuracy, suggesting that DBT may have a potential to be performed as an alternative to FFDM.

Keywords: radiation dose, DBT, digital mammography, image quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: P. Byrnes, F. A. DiazDelaO

Abstract:

The Support Vector Machine (SVM) has become widely recognised as one of the leading algorithms in machine learning for both regression and binary classification. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions, referred to as support vectors. Despite its popularity amongst practitioners, SVM has some limitations, with the most significant being the generation of point prediction as opposed to predictive distributions. Stemming from this issue, a probabilistic model namely, Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines (PCVM), has been proposed which respects the original functional form of SVM whilst also providing a predictive distribution. As physical system designs become more complex, an increasing number of classification tasks involving industrial applications consist of more than two classes. Consequently, this research proposes a framework which allows for the extension of PCVM to a multi class setting. Additionally, the original PCVM framework relies on the use of type II maximum likelihood to provide estimates for both the kernel hyperparameters and model evidence. In a high dimensional multi class setting, however, this approach has been shown to be ineffective due to bad scaling as the number of classes increases. Accordingly, we propose the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods to provide a posterior distribution over both parameters and hyperparameters. The proposed framework will be validated against current multi class classifiers through synthetic and real life implementations.

Keywords: probabilistic classification vector machines, multi class classification, MCMC, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Fatemeh Rasooli, Behzad Simiari, Pooya Payandemehr, Amir Nejati, Maryam Bahreini, Atefeh Abdollahi

Abstract:

Introduction: Pain is a complex physiological reaction to tissue injury. In the course of painful procedures such as nerve block, ice has been shown to be a feasible and inexpensive material to control pain. It delays nerve conduction, actives other senses and reduces inflammatory and painful responses. This study assessed the effect of ice in reducing pain caused by needling and infiltration during digital block. Patient satisfaction recorded as a secondary outcome. Methods: This study was designed as a non-blinded randomized clinical trial approved by Tehran University of Medical Sciences Ethical Committee. Informed consent was taken from all the participants who were then randomly divided into two groups. Digital block performed by standard approach in selected patients. Tubes of ice were prepared in gloves and were fragmented at a time of application for circling around the finger. Tubes were applied for 6 minutes before digital nerve block in the site of needling in the case group. Patients in the control group underwent digital nerve block with the conventional method without ice administration. Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) used for grading pain. 0 used for no pain and 10 for the worst pain that patient had experienced until now. Scores were analyzed by Wilcoxon Rank Sum test and compared in case and control groups. Results: 100 patients aged 16-50 years were enrolled. Mean NRS scores with and without ice were 1.5 mm (S.D ± 1.44) and 6.8 mm (S.D ± 1.40) for needling pain and for infiltration pain were 2.7mm ( S.D ±1.65) and 8.5mm ( S.D ± 1.47), respectively (p<0.001). Besides, patients’ satisfactions were significantly higher in the ice group (p<0.001). Conclusion: Application of ice for 6 minutes significantly reduced pain of needling and infiltration in digital nerve block; thus, it seems to be a feasible and inexpensive material which acts effectively to decrease pain and stress before the procedure.

Keywords: digital block, ice, needle, pain

Procedia PDF Downloads 208