Search results for: image correlation

Authors: Charlotte Entwistle, Ryan Boyd

Abstract:

Recent developments in information retrieval techniques and natural language processing have allowed for greater exploration of psychological and social processes. Linguistic analysis methods for understanding behaviour have provided useful insights within the field of mental health. One area within mental health that has received little attention though, is borderline personality disorder (BPD). BPD is a common mental health disorder characterised by instability of interpersonal relationships, self-image and affect. It also manifests through maladaptive behaviours, such as impulsivity and self-harm. Examination of language patterns associated with BPD could allow for a greater understanding of the disorder and its links to maladaptive thoughts and behaviours. Language analysis methods could also be used in a predictive way, such as by identifying indicators of BPD or predicting maladaptive thoughts, emotions and behaviours. Additionally, associations that are uncovered between language and maladaptive thoughts and behaviours could then be applied at a more general level. This study explores linguistic characteristics of BPD, and their links to maladaptive thoughts and behaviours, through the analysis of social media data. Data were collected from a large corpus of posts from the publicly available social media platform Reddit, namely, from the ‘r/BPD’ subreddit whereby people identify as having BPD. Data were collected using the Python Reddit API Wrapper and included all users which had posted within the BPD subreddit. All posts were manually inspected to ensure that they were not posted by someone who clearly did not have BPD, such as people posting about a loved one with BPD. These users were then tracked across all other subreddits of which they had posted in and data from these subreddits were also collected. Additionally, data were collected from a random control group of Reddit users. Disorder-relevant behaviours, such as self-harming or aggression-related behaviours, outlined within Reddit posts were coded to by expert raters. All posts and comments were aggregated by user and split by subreddit. Language data were then analysed using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) 2015 software. LIWC is a text analysis program that identifies and categorises words based on linguistic and paralinguistic dimensions, psychological constructs and personal concern categories. Statistical analyses of linguistic features could then be conducted. Findings revealed distinct linguistic features associated with BPD, based on Reddit posts, which differentiated these users from a control group. Language patterns were also found to be associated with the occurrence of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours. Thus, this study demonstrates that there are indeed linguistic markers of BPD present on social media. It also implies that language could be predictive of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours associated with BPD. These findings are of importance as they suggest potential for clinical interventions to be provided based on the language of people with BPD to try to reduce the likelihood of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours occurring. For example, by social media tracking or engaging people with BPD in expressive writing therapy. Overall, this study has provided a greater understanding of the disorder and how it manifests through language and behaviour.

Keywords: behaviour analysis, borderline personality disorder, natural language processing, social media data

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Tahisa M. Pedroso, Hérida R. N. Salgado

Abstract:

The microbiological turbidimetric assay allows the determination of potency of the drug, by measuring the turbidity (absorbance), caused by inhibition of microorganisms by ertapenem sodium. Ertapenem sodium (ERTM), a synthetic antimicrobial agent of the class of carbapenems, shows action against Gram-negative, Gram-positive, aerobic and anaerobic microorganisms. Turbidimetric assays are described in the literature for some antibiotics, but this method is not described for ertapenem. The objective of the present study was to develop and validate a simple, sensitive, precise and accurate microbiological assay by turbidimetry to quantify ertapenem sodium injectable as an alternative to the physicochemical methods described in the literature. Several preliminary tests were performed to choose the following parameters: Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 25923, IAL 1851, 8 % of inoculum, BHI culture medium, and aqueous solution of ertapenem sodium. 10.0 mL of sterile BHI culture medium were distributed in 20 tubes. 0.2 mL of solutions (standard and test), were added in tube, respectively S1, S2 and S3, and T1, T2 and T3, 0.8 mL of culture medium inoculated were transferred to each tube, according parallel lines 3 x 3 test. The tubes were incubated in shaker Marconi MA 420 at a temperature of 35.0 °C ± 2.0 °C for 4 hours. After this period, the growth of microorganisms was inhibited by addition of 0.5 mL of 12% formaldehyde solution in each tube. The absorbance was determined in Quimis Q-798DRM spectrophotometer at a wavelength of 530 nm. An analytical curve was constructed to obtain the equation of the line by the least-squares method and the linearity and parallelism was detected by ANOVA. The specificity of the method was proven by comparing the response obtained for the standard and the finished product. The precision was checked by testing the determination of ertapenem sodium in three days. The accuracy was determined by recovery test. The robustness was determined by comparing the results obtained by varying wavelength, brand of culture medium and volume of culture medium in the tubes. Statistical analysis showed that there is no deviation from linearity in the analytical curves of standard and test samples. The correlation coefficients were 0.9996 and 0.9998 for the standard and test samples, respectively. The specificity was confirmed by comparing the absorbance of the reference substance and test samples. The values obtained for intraday, interday and between analyst precision were 1.25%; 0.26%, 0.15% respectively. The amount of ertapenem sodium present in the samples analyzed, 99.87%, is consistent. The accuracy was proven by the recovery test, with value of 98.20%. The parameters varied did not affect the analysis of ertapenem sodium, confirming the robustness of this method. The turbidimetric assay is more versatile, faster and easier to apply than agar diffusion assay. The method is simple, rapid and accurate and can be used in routine analysis of quality control of formulations containing ertapenem sodium.

Keywords: ertapenem sodium, turbidimetric assay, quality control, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Danilo F. Rodrigues, Hérida Regina N. Salgado

Abstract:

Introduction: The emergence of resistant microorganisms to a large number of clinically approved antimicrobials has been increasing, which restrict the options for the treatment of bacterial infections. As a strategy, drugs with high antimicrobial activities are in evidence. Stands out a class of antimicrobial, the cephalosporins, having as fourth generation cefepime (CEF) a semi-synthetic product which has activity against various Gram-positive bacteria (e.g. oxacillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus) and Gram-negative (e.g. Pseudomonas aeruginosa) aerobic. There are few studies in the literature regarding the development of microbiological methodologies for the analysis of this antimicrobial, so researches in this area are highly relevant to optimize the analysis of this drug in the industry and ensure the quality of the marketed product. The development of microbiological methods for the analysis of antimicrobials has gained strength in recent years and has been highlighted in relation to physicochemical methods, especially because they make possible to determine the bioactivity of the drug against a microorganism. In this context, the aim of this work was the development and validation of a microbiological method for quantitative analysis of CEF in powder lyophilized for injectable solution by turbidimetric assay. Method: For performing the method, Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 6538 IAL 2082 was used as the test microorganism and the culture medium chosen was the Casoy broth. The test was performed using temperature control (35.0 °C ± 2.0 °C) and incubated for 4 hours in shaker. The readings of the results were made at a wavelength of 530 nm through a spectrophotometer. The turbidimetric microbiological method was validated by determining the following parameters: linearity, precision (repeatability and intermediate precision), accuracy and robustness, according to ICH guidelines. Results and discussion: Among the parameters evaluated for method validation, the linearity showed results suitable for both statistical analyses as the correlation coefficients (r) that went 0.9990 for CEF reference standard and 0.9997 for CEF sample. The precision presented the following values 1.86% (intraday), 0.84% (interday) and 0.71% (between analyst). The accuracy of the method has been proven through the recovery test where the mean value obtained was 99.92%. The robustness was verified by the parameters changing volume of culture medium, brand of culture medium, incubation time in shaker and wavelength. The potency of CEF present in the samples of lyophilized powder for injectable solution was 102.46%. Conclusion: The turbidimetric microbiological method proposed for quantification of CEF in lyophilized powder for solution for injectable showed being fast, linear, precise, accurate and robust, being in accordance with all the requirements, which can be used in routine analysis of quality control in the pharmaceutical industry as an option for microbiological analysis.

Keywords: cefepime hydrochloride, quality control, turbidimetric assay, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Sedef Sert, Paola Garrone, Marco Melacini, Alessandro Perego

Abstract:

This paper is aimed at enhancing our current understanding of motivations behind corporate in-kind donations and to find out whether economic efficiency may be a major driver. Our empirical setting is consisted of surplus food recovery and donation by companies from food supply chain. This choice of empirical setting is motivated by growing attention on the paradox of food insecurity and food waste i.e. a total of 842 million people worldwide were estimated to be suffering from regularly not getting enough food, while approximately 1.3 billion tons per year food is wasted globally. Recently, many authors have started considering surplus food donation to nonprofit organizations as a way to cope with social issue of food insecurity and environmental issue of food waste. In corporate philanthropy literature the motivations behind the corporate donations for social purposes, such as altruistic motivations, enhancements to employee morale, the organization’s image, supplier/customer relationships, local community support, have been examined. However, the relationship with economic efficiency is not studied and in many cases the pure economic efficiency as a decision making factor is neglected. Although in literature there are some studies give us the clue on economic value creation of surplus food donation such as saving landfill fees or getting tax deductions, so far there is no study focusing deeply on this phenomenon. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework which explores the economic barriers and drivers towards alternative surplus food management options i.e. discounts, secondary markets, feeding animals, composting, energy recovery, disposal. The case study methodology is used to conduct the research. Protocols for semi structured interviews are prepared based on an extensive literature review and adapted after expert opinions. The interviews are conducted mostly with the supply chain and logistics managers of 20 companies in food sector operating in Italy, in particular in Lombardy region. The results shows that in current situation, the food manufacturing companies can experience cost saving by recovering and donating the surplus food with respect to other methods especially considering the disposal option. On the other hand, retail and food service sectors are not economically incentivized to recover and donate surplus food to disfavored population. The paper shows that not only strategic and moral motivations, but also economic motivations play an important role in managerial decision making process in surplus food management. We also believe that our research while rooted in the surplus food management topic delivers some interesting implications to more general research on corporate in-kind donations. It also shows that there is a huge room for policy making favoring the recovery and donation of surplus products.

Keywords: corporate philanthropy, donation, recovery, surplus food

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Sadeem Aljamaan, Reem Hariri, Rahaf Alghamdi, Batool Alotaibi, Batool Alsenan, Lama Althunayyan, Areej Alnemer

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to correlate between radiological findings and histopathological results in regard to the breast imaging-reporting and data system scores, size of breast masses, molecular subtypes and suspicious radiological features, as well as to assess the concordance rate in histological grade between core biopsy and surgical excision among breast cancer patients, followed by analyzing the change of concordance rate in relation to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in a Saudi population. A retrospective review was conducted over 6-year period (2017-2022) on all breast core biopsies of women preceded by radiological investigation. Chi-squared test (χ2) was performed on qualitative data, the Mann-Whitney test for quantitative non-parametric variables, and the Kappa test for grade agreement. A total of 641 cases were included. Ultrasound, mammography, and magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated diagnostic accuracies of 85%, 77.9% and 86.9%; respectively. magnetic resonance imaging manifested the highest sensitivity (72.2%), and the lowest was for ultrasound (61%). Concordance in tumor size with final excisions was best in magnetic resonance imaging, while mammography demonstrated a higher tendency of overestimation (41.9%), and ultrasound showed the highest underestimation (67.7%). The association between basal-like molecular subtypes and the breast imaging-reporting and data system score 5 classifications was statistically significant only for magnetic resonance imaging (p=0.04). Luminal subtypes demonstrated a significantly higher percentage of speculation in mammography. Breast imaging-reporting and data system score 4 manifested a substantial number of benign pathologies in all the 3 modalities. A fair concordance rate (k= 0.212 & 0.379) was demonstrated between excision and the preceding core biopsy grading with and without neoadjuvant therapy, respectively. The results demonstrated a down-grading in cases post-neoadjuvant therapy. In cases who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy, underestimation of tumor grade in biopsy was evident. In summary, magnetic resonance imaging had the highest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and accuracy of both diagnosis and estimation of tumor size. Mammography demonstrated better sensitivity than ultrasound and had the highest negative predictive value, but ultrasound had better specificity, positive predictive value and accuracy. Therefore, the combination of different modalities is advantageous. The concordance rate of core biopsy grading with excision was not impacted by neoadjuvant therapy.

Keywords: breast cancer, mammography, MRI, neoadjuvant, pathology, US

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Y. Z. Gad

Abstract:

Disorders of Sex Development (DSD) are defined as congenital conditions in which development of chromosomal, gonadal or anatomical sex is atypical. The DSD are relatively prevalent in Egypt. In spite of that, the relative rarity of the individual disease types or their molecular pathologies frequently resulted in reporting on single or few cases. This augmented the challenging nature of phenotype-genotype correlation in this disease group and its utilization in the management of such medical emergency. Through critical assessment of the published DSD reports, the current review aims at analyzing the clinical characteristics of the various DSD forms in relation to the underlying molecular pathologies. A systematic literature search was done in Pubmed, using relevant keywords (Egypt versus DSD, genital ambiguity or ambiguous genitalia, the old terms of 'intersex, hermaphroditism and pseudohermaphroditism', and a list of the DSD entities and their related genes). The search yielded 24 reports of molecular data in Egyptian patients presenting with ambiguous genitalia. However, only 21 publications fulfilled the criteria of inclusion of detailed clinical descriptions and definitive molecular diagnoses of individual patients. Curation of the data yielded a total of 53 cases that were ascertained from 40 families. Fifty-one patients present with ambiguous genitalia only while 2 had multiple congenital anomalies. Parental consanguinity was noted in 60% of cases. Sex of rearing at initial presentation was female in 75% and 60% in 46,XY and 46,XX DSD cases, respectively. The external genital phenotype in 2/3 of the 46,XY DSD cases showed moderate undermasculinization [Quigley scores 3 & 4] and 1/3 had severe presentations [scores 5 & 6]. For 46,XX subjects, 1 had severe virilization of the external genitalia while 8 had moderate phenotype. Hormonal data were inconclusive or contradictory to final diagnosis in a forth of cases. Collectively, 31 families [31/40, 77.5%] with 46,XY DSD had molecular defects in the genes, 5 alpha reductase 2 (SRD5A2) [12/31], 17 beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 3 [8/31], androgen receptor [7/31], Steroidogenic factor 1 [2/31], luteinizing hormone receptor [1/31], and fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 [1/31]. In a multiethnic study, 9 families afflicted with 46,XX DSD due to 11 beta hydroxylase (CYP11B1) deficiency were documented. Two recurrent mutations, G34R and N160D, in SRD5A2 were present, respectively, in 42 and 17% of cases. Similarly, 4 recurrent mutations resulted in 89% of the CYP11B1 presentations. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of autosomal recessive inheritance and inbreeding among DSD presentations, the importance of founder effect in at least 2 disorders, the difficulties in relating the genotype with the indeterminate genital phenotype, the under-reporting of some DSD subtypes, and the notion that the reported mutational profiles among Egyptian DSD cases are relatively different from those reported in other ethnic groups.

Keywords: disorders of sex development, genital ambiguity, mutation, molecular diagnosis, Egypt

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: A. Venkatakrishnan, M. Juneja, S. Kapoor

Abstract:

Background: Gastrointestinal dysfunction is an emerging co morbidity seen in autism and may further strengthen the association between autism and celiac disease. This is supported by increased rates (22-70%) of gastrointestinal symptoms like diarrhea, constipation, abdominal discomfort/pain, and gastrointestinal inflammation in children with the etiology of autism is still elusive. In addition to genetic factors, environmental factors such as toxin exposure, intrauterine exposure to certain teratogenic drugs, are being proposed as possible contributing factors in the etiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) in cognizance with reports of increased gut permeability and high rates of gastrointestinal symptoms noted in children with ASD, celiac disease has also been proposed as a possible etiological factor. Despite insufficient evidence regarding the benefit of restricted diets in Autism, GFD has been promoted as an alternative treatment for ASD. This study attempts to discern any correlation between ASD and celiac disease. Objective: This cross sectional study aims to determine the proportion of celiac disease in children with ASD. Methods: Study included 155 participants aged 2-12 yrs, diagnosed as ASD as per DSM-5 attending the child development center at a tertiary care hospital in Northern India. Those on gluten free diet or having other autoimmune conditions were excluded. A detailed Performa was filled which included sociodemographic details, history of gastrointestinal symptoms, anthropometry, systemic examination, and pertinent psychological testing was done using was assessed using Developmental Profile-3(DP-3) for Developmental Quotient, Childhood Autism Rating Scale-2 (CARS-2) for severity of ASD, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS) for adaptive behavior, Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) for behavioral problems and BAMBI (Brief Autism Mealtime Behavior Scales) for feeding problems. Screening for celiac was done by TTG-IgA levels, and total serum IgA levels were measured to exclude IgA deficiency. Those with positive screen were further planned for HLA typing and endoscopic biopsy. Results: A total of 155 cases were included, out of which 5 had low IgA levels and were hence excluded from the study. The rest 150 children had TTG levels below the ULN and normal total serum IgA level. History of Gastrointestinal symptoms was present in 51 (34%) cases abdominal pain was the most frequent complaint (16.6%), followed by constipation (12.6%). Diarrhea was seen in 8 %. Gastrointestinal symptoms were significantly more common in children with ASD above 5 yrs (p-value 0.006) and those who were verbal (p = 0.000). There was no significant association between socio-demographic factors, anthropometric data, or severity of autism with gastrointestinal symptoms. Conclusion: None of the150 patients with ASD had raised TTG levels; hence no association was found between ASD and celiac disease. There is no justification for routine screening for celiac disease in children with ASD. Further studies are warranted to evaluate association of Non Celiac Gluten Sensitivity with ASD and any role of gluten-free diet in such patients.

Keywords: autism, celiac, gastrointestinal, gluten

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Igor Guatelli

Abstract:

The universe of aesthetic perception entails impasses about sensitive divergences that each text or visual object may be subjected to. If approached through intertextuality that is not based on the misleading notion of kinships or similarities a priori admissible, the possibility of anachronistic, heterogeneous - and non-diachronic - assemblies can enhance the emergence of interval movements, intermediate, and conflicting, conducive to a method of reading, interpreting, and assigning meaning that escapes the rigid antinomies of the mere being and non-being of things. In negative, they operate in a relationship built by the lack of an adjusted meaning set by their positive existences, with no remainders; the generated interval becomes the remnant of each of them; it is the opening that obscures the stable positions of each one. Without the negative of absence, of that which is always missing or must be missing in a text, concept, or image made positive by history, nothing is perceived beyond what has been already given. Pairings or binary oppositions cannot lead only to functional syntheses; on the contrary, methodological disturbances accumulated by the approximation of signs and entities can initiate a process of becoming as an opening to an unforeseen other, transformation until a moment when the difficulties of [re]conciliation become the mainstay of a future of that sign/entity, not envisioned a priori. A counter-history can emerge from these unprecedented, misadjusted approaches, beginnings of unassigned injunctions and disjunctions, in short, difficult alliances that open cracks in a supposedly cohesive history, chained in its apparent linearity with no remains, understood as a categorical historical imperative. Interstices are minority fields that, because of their opening, are capable of causing opacity in that which, apparently, presents itself with irreducible clarity. Resulting from an incomplete and maladjusted [at the least dual] marriage between the signs/entities that originate them, this interval may destabilize and cause disorder in these entities and their own meanings. The interstitials offer a hyphenated relationship: a simultaneous union and separation, a spacing between the entity’s identity and its otherness or, alterity. One and the other may no longer be seen without the crack or fissure that now separates them, uniting, by a space-time lapse. Ontological, semantic shifts are caused by this fissure, an absence between one and the other, one with and against the other. Based on an improbable approximation between some conceptual and semantic shifts within the design production of architect Rem Koolhaas and the textual production of the philosopher Jacques Derrida, this article questions the notion of unity, coherence, affinity, and complementarity in the process of construction of thought from these ontological, epistemological, and semiological fissures that rattle the signs/entities and their stable meanings. Fissures in a thought that is considered coherent, cohesive, formatted are the negativity that constitutes the interstices that allow us to move towards what still remains as non-identity, which allows us to begin another story.

Keywords: clearing, interstice, negative, remnant, spectrum

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Amit Bhunia, Mohit Kumar Singh, Maryam Al Huwayz, Mohamed Henini, Shouvik Datta

Abstract:

We report [https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.13518] experimental detection and control of Schrodinger’s Cat like macroscopically large, quantum coherent state of a two-component Bose-Einstein condensate of spatially indirect electron-hole pairs or excitons using a resonant tunneling diode of III-V Semiconductors. This provides access to millions of excitons as qubits to allow efficient, fault-tolerant quantum computation. In this work, we measure phase-coherent periodic oscillations in photo-generated capacitance as a function of an applied voltage bias and light intensity over a macroscopically large area. Periodic presence and absence of splitting of excitonic peaks in the optical spectra measured by photocapacitance point towards tunneling induced variations in capacitive coupling between the quantum well and quantum dots. Observation of negative ‘quantum capacitance’ due to a screening of charge carriers by the quantum well indicates Coulomb correlations of interacting excitons in the plane of the sample. We also establish that coherent resonant tunneling in this well-dot heterostructure restricts the available momentum space of the charge carriers within this quantum well. Consequently, the electric polarization vector of the associated indirect excitons collective orients along the direction of applied bias and these excitons undergo Bose-Einstein condensation below ~100 K. Generation of interference beats in photocapacitance oscillation even with incoherent white light further confirm the presence of stable, long-range spatial correlation among these indirect excitons. We finally demonstrate collective Rabi oscillations of these macroscopically large, ‘multipartite’, two-level, coupled and uncoupled quantum states of excitonic condensate as qubits. Therefore, our study not only brings the physics and technology of Bose-Einstein condensation within the reaches of semiconductor chips but also opens up experimental investigations of the fundamentals of quantum physics using similar techniques. Operational temperatures of such two-component excitonic BEC can be raised further with a more densely packed, ordered array of QDs and/or using materials having larger excitonic binding energies. However, fabrications of single crystals of 0D-2D heterostructures using 2D materials (e.g. transition metal di-chalcogenides, oxides, perovskites etc.) having higher excitonic binding energies are still an open challenge for semiconductor optoelectronics. As of now, these 0D-2D heterostructures can already be scaled up for mass production of miniaturized, portable quantum optoelectronic devices using the existing III-V and/or Nitride based semiconductor fabrication technologies.

Keywords: exciton, Bose-Einstein condensation, quantum computation, heterostructures, semiconductor Physics, quantum fluids, Schrodinger's Cat

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Eashwar V. Somasundaram, Raoul R. Wadhwa, Jacob G. Scott

Abstract:

The use of radiomics in measuring geometric properties of tumor images such as size, surface area, and volume has been invaluable in assessing cancer diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. In addition to analyzing geometric properties, radiomics would benefit from measuring topological properties using persistent homology. Intuitively, features uncovered by persistent homology may correlate to tumor structural features. One example is necrotic cavities (corresponding to 2D topological features), which are markers of very aggressive tumors. We develop a data pipeline in R that clusters tumors images based on persistent homology is used to identify meaningful clinical distinctions between tumors and possibly new relationships not captured by established clinical categorizations. A preliminary analysis was performed on 16 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) breast tissue segments downloaded from the 'Investigation of Serial Studies to Predict Your Therapeutic Response with Imaging and Molecular Analysis' (I-SPY TRIAL or ISPY1) collection in The Cancer Imaging Archive. Each segment represents a patient’s breast tumor prior to treatment. The ISPY1 dataset also provided the estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status data. A persistent homology matrix up to 2-dimensional features was calculated for each of the MRI segmentation. Wasserstein distances were then calculated between all pairwise tumor image persistent homology matrices to create a distance matrix for each feature dimension. Since Wasserstein distances were calculated for 0, 1, and 2-dimensional features, three hierarchal clusters were constructed. The adjusted Rand Index was used to see how well the clusters corresponded to the ER/PR/HER2 status of the tumors. Triple-negative cancers (negative status for all three receptors) significantly clustered together in the 2-dimensional features dendrogram (Adjusted Rand Index of .35, p = .031). It is known that having a triple-negative breast tumor is associated with aggressive tumor growth and poor prognosis when compared to non-triple negative breast tumors. The aggressive tumor growth associated with triple-negative tumors may have a unique structure in an MRI segmentation, which persistent homology is able to identify. This preliminary analysis shows promising results in the use of persistent homology on tumor imaging to assess the severity of breast tumors. The next step is to apply this pipeline to other tumor segment images from The Cancer Imaging Archive at different sites such as the lung, kidney, and brain. In addition, whether other clinical parameters, such as overall survival, tumor stage, and tumor genotype data are captured well in persistent homology clusters will be assessed. If analyzing tumor MRI segments using persistent homology consistently identifies clinical relationships, this could enable clinicians to use persistent homology data as a noninvasive way to inform clinical decision making in oncology.

Keywords: cancer biology, oncology, persistent homology, radiomics, topological data analysis, tumor imaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Leonardo Costa Pereira, Frederico Santos Santana, Mauro Karnikowski, Luís Sinésio Silva Neto, Aline Oliveira Gomes, Marisete Peralta Safons, Margô Gomes De Oliveira Karnikowski

Abstract:

In Brazil, projections of population aging follow all world projections, the birth rate tends to be surpassed by the mortality rate around the year 2045. Historically, the population of Brazilian blacks suffered for several centuries from the oppression of dominant classes. A group, especially of blacks, stands out in relation to territorial, historical and social aspects, and for centuries they have isolated themselves in small communities, in order to maintain their freedom and culture. The isolation of the Quilombola communities generated socioeconomic effects as well as the health of these blacks. Thus, the objective of the present study is to verify the association of body composition parameters with lower and upper limb strength and functional capacity in Quilombola remnants. The research was approved by ethics committee (1,771,159). Anthropometric evaluations of hip and waist circumference, body mass and height were performed. In order to verify the body composition, the relationship between stature and body mass (BM) was performed, generating the body mass index (BMI), as well as the dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) test. The Time Up and Go (TUG) test was used to evaluate the functional capacity, and a maximum repetition test (1MR) for knee extension and handgrip (HG) was applied for strength magnitude analysis. Statistical analysis was performed using the statistical package SPSS 22.0. Shapiro Wilk's normality test was performed. For the possible correlations, the suggestions of the Pearson or Spearman tests were adopted. The results obtained after the interpretation identified that the sample (n = 18) was composed of 66.7% of female individuals with mean age of 66.07 ± 8.95 years. The sample’s body fat percentage (%BF) (35.65 ± 10.73) exceeds the recommendations for age group, as well as the anthropometric parameters of hip (90.91 ± 8.44cm) and waist circumference (80.37 ± 17.5cm). The relationship between height (1.55 ± 0.1m) and body mass (63.44 ± 11.25Kg) generated a BMI of 24.16 ± 7.09Kg/m2, that was considered normal. The TUG performance was 10.71 ± 1.85s. In the 1MR test, 46.67 ± 13.06Kg and in the HG 23.93±7.96Kgf were obtained, respectively. Correlation analyzes were characterized by the high frequency of significant correlations for height, dominant arm mass (DAM), %BF, 1MR and HG variables. In addition, correlations between HG and BM (r = 0.67, p = 0.005), height (r = 0.51, p = 0.004) and DAM (r = 0.55, p = 0.026) were also observed. The strength of the lower limbs correlates with BM (r = 0.69, p = 0.003), height (r = 0.62, p = 0.01) and DAM (r = 0.772, p = 0.001). In this way, we can conclude that not only the simple spatial relationship of mass and height can influence in predictive parameters of strength or functionality, being important the verification of the conditions of the corporal composition. For this population, height seems to be a good predictor of strength and body composition.

Keywords: African Continental Ancestry Group, body composition, functional capacity, strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Chuanqiao Zheng, Wei Zeng, Haozhen Lin

Abstract:

As of March 2020, the number of Chinese netizens has reached 904 million. The proportion of Internet users accessing the Internet through mobile phones is as high as 99.3%. Under the background of 'Internet +', tourists have a stronger sense of independence in the choice of tourism destinations and tourism products. Tourists are more inclined to learn about the relevant information on tourism destinations and other tourists' evaluations of tourist products through the Internet. The search engine, as an integrated platform that contains a wealth of information, is highly valuable to the analysis of the characteristics of the Internet attention given to various tourism destinations, through big data mining and analysis. This article uses the Baidu Index as the data source, which is one of the products of Baidu Search. The Baidu Index is based on big data, which collects and shares the search results of a large number of Internet users on the Baidu search engine. The big data used in this article includes search index, demand map, population profile, etc. The main research methods used are: (1) based on the search index, analyzing the Internet attention given to the tourism in five cities in Northeast Sichuan at different times, so as to obtain the overall trend and individual characteristics of tourism development in the region; (2) based on the demand map and the population profile, analyzing the demographic characteristics and market positioning of the tourist groups in these cities to understand the characteristics and needs of the target groups; (3) correlating the Internet attention data with the permanent population of each province in China in the corresponding to construct the Boston matrix of the Internet attention rate of the Northeast Sichuan tourism, obtain the tourism target markets, and then propose development strategies for different markets. The study has found that: a) the Internet attention given to the tourism in the region can be categorized into tourist off-season and peak season; the Internet attention given to tourism in different cities is quite different. b) tourists look for information including tour guide information, ticket information, traffic information, weather information, and information on the competing tourism cities; with regard to the population profile, the main group of potential tourists searching for the keywords of tourism in the five prefecture-level cities in Northeast Sichuan are youth. The male to female ratio is about 6 to 4, with males being predominant. c) through the construction of the Boston matrix, it is concluded that the star market for tourism in the Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone includes Sichuan and Shaanxi; the cash cows market includes Hainan and Ningxia; the question market includes Jiangsu and Shanghai; the dog market includes Hubei and Jiangxi. The study concludes with the following planning strategies and recommendations: i) creating a diversified business format that integrates cultural and tourism; ii) creating a brand image of niche tourism; iii) focusing on the development of tourism products; iv) innovating composite three-dimensional marketing channels.

Keywords: Baidu Index, big data, internet attention, tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Abhit Kumar

Abstract:

The world is full of master slave Telemanipulator where the doctor’s masters the console and the surgical arm perform the operations, i.e. these robots are passive robots, what the world needs to focus is that in use of these passive robots we are acquiring doctors for operating these console hence the utilization of the concept of robotics is still not fully utilized ,hence the focus should be on active robots, Auto Surgical-Emissive Hand use the similar concept of active robotics where this anthropomorphic hand focuses on the autonomous surgical, emissive and scanning operation, enabled with the vision of 3 way emission of Laser Beam/-5°C < ICY Steam < 5°C/ TIC embedded in palm of the anthropomorphic hand and structured in a form of 3 way disc. Fingers of AS-EH (Auto Surgical-Emissive Hand) as called, will have tactile, force, pressure sensor rooted to it so that the mechanical mechanism of force, pressure and physical presence on the external subject can be maintained, conversely our main focus is on the concept of “emission” the question arises how all the 3 non related methods will work together that to merged in a single programmed hand, all the 3 methods will be utilized according to the need of the external subject, the laser if considered will be emitted via a pin sized outlet, this radiation is channelized via a thin channel which further connect to the palm of the surgical hand internally leading to the pin sized outlet, here the laser is used to emit radiation enough to cut open the skin for removal of metal scrap or any other foreign material while the patient is in under anesthesia, keeping the complexity of the operation very low, at the same time the TIC fitted with accurate temperature compensator will be providing us the real time feed of the surgery in the form of heat image, this gives us the chance to analyze the level, also ATC will help us to determine the elevated body temperature while the operation is being proceeded, the thermal imaging camera in rooted internally in the AS-EH while also being connected to the real time software externally to provide us live feedback. The ICY steam will provide the cooling effect before and after the operation, however for more utilization of this concept we can understand the working of simple procedure in which If a finger remain in icy water for a long time it freezes the blood flow stops and the portion become numb and isolated hence even if you try to pinch it will not provide any sensation as the nerve impulse did not coordinated with the brain hence sensory receptor did not got active which means no sense of touch was observed utilizing the same concept we can use the icy stem to be emitted via a pin sized hole on the area of concern ,temperature below 273K which will frost the area after which operation can be done, this steam can also be use to desensitized the pain while the operation in under process. The mathematical calculation, algorithm, programming of working and movement of this hand will be installed in the system prior to the procedure, since this AS-EH is a programmable hand it comes with the limitation hence this AS-EH robot will perform surgical process of low complexity only.

Keywords: active robots, algorithm, emission, icy steam, TIC, laser

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Apurva Singh, S. P. Jaiswar, Apala Priyadarshini, Akancha Pandey

Abstract:

Objective: The aim of this study is to find the association of PON1 gene polymorphism with pesticides In RPL subjects. Background: Recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) is defined as three or more sequential abortions before the 20th week of gestation. Pesticides and its derivatives (organochlorine and organophosphate) are proposed to accommodate a ruler chemical for RPL in the sub-humid region of India. The paraoxonase-1 enzyme (PON1) plays an important role in the toxicity of some organophosphate pesticides, with low PON1 activity being associated with higher pesticide sensitivity Methodology: This is a case-control study done in Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology & Department of Biochemistry, K.G.M.U, Lucknow, India. The subjects were enrolled after fulfilling the inclusion & exclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria: Cases- Subject having two or more spontaneous abortions & Control- Healthy female having one or more alive child was selected. Exclusion criteria: Cases & Control- Subject having the following disease will be excluded from the study Diabetes mellitus, Hypertension, Tuberculosis, Immunocompromised patients, any endocrine disorder and genital, colon or breast cancer any other malignancies. Blood samples were collected in EDTA tubes from cases & healthy control women & genomic DNA was extracted by phenol-chloroform method. The estimation of pesticides residue from blood was done by HPLC. Biochemical estimation was also performed. Genotyping of PON1 gene polymorphism was performed by RFLP. Statistical analysis of the data was performed using the SPSS16.3 software. Results: A sum of total 14 pesticides (12 organochlorine and 2 organophosphate) selected on the basis of their persistent nature and consumption rate. The significant level of pesticide (ppb) estimated by the Mann whiney test and it was found to be significant at higher level of β-HCH (p:0.04), γ-HCH (p:0.001), δ-HCH (p: 0.002), chloropyrifos (p:0.001), pp-DDD (p:0.001) and fenvalrate (p: 0.001) in case group compare to its control. The level of antioxidant enzymes were found to be significantly decreased among the cases. Wild homozygous TT was more frequent and prevalent among control groups. However, heterozygous group (Tt) was more in cases than control groups (CI-0.3-1.3) (p=0.06). Conclusion: Higher levels of pesticides with endocrine disrupting potential in cases indicate the possible role of these compounds as one of the causes of recurrent pregnancy loss. Possibly, increased pesticide level appears to indicate increased levels of oxidative damage that has been associated with the possible cause of Recurrent Miscarriage, it may reflect indirect evidence of toxicity rather than the direct cause. Since both factors are reported to increase risk, individuals with higher levels of these 'Toxic compounds' especially in 'high-risk genotypes' might be more susceptible to recurrent pregnancy loss.

Keywords: paraoxonase, pesticides, PON1, RPL

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Yesim Sucullu Karadag, Pinar Kurt, Sule Bilen, Nese Subutay Oztekin, Fikri Ak

Abstract:

Background: Primary cervical dystonia is thought to be a purely motor disorder. But recent studies revealed that patients with dystonia had additional non-motor features. Sensory and psychiatric disturbances could be included into the non-motor spectrum of dystonia. The Basal Ganglia receive inputs from all cortical areas and throughout the thalamus project to several cortical areas, thus participating to circuits that have been linked to motor as well as sensory, emotional and cognitive functions. However, there are limited studies indicating cognitive impairment in patients with cervical dystonia. More evidence is required regarding neurocognitive functioning in these patients. Objective: This study is aimed to investigate neurocognitive profile of cervical dystonia patients in comparison to healthy controls (HC) by employing a detailed set of neuropsychological tests in addition to self-reported instruments. Methods: Totally 29 (M/F: 7/22) cervical dystonia patients and 30 HC (M/F: 10/20) were included into the study. Exclusion criteria were depression and not given informed consent. Standard demographic, educational data and clinical reports (disease duration, disability index) were recorded for all patients. After a careful neurological evaluation, all subjects were given a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests: Self report of neuropsychological condition (by visual analogue scale-VAS, 0-100), RAVLT, STROOP, PASAT, TMT, SDMT, JLOT, DST, COWAT, ACTT, and FST. Patients and HC were compared regarding demographic, clinical features and neurocognitive tests. Also correlation between disease duration, disability index and self report -VAS were assessed. Results: There was no difference between patients and HCs regarding socio-demographic variables such as age, gender and years of education (p levels were 0.36, 0.436, 0.869; respectively). All of the patients were assessed at the peak of botulinum toxine effect and they were not taking an anticholinergic agent or benzodiazepine. Dystonia patients had significantly impaired verbal learning and memory (RAVLT, p<0.001), divided attention and working memory (ACTT, p<0.001), attention speed (TMT-A and B, p=0.008, 0.050), executive functions (PASAT, p<0.001; SDMT, p= 0.001; FST, p<0.001), verbal attention (DST, p=0.001), verbal fluency (COWAT, p<0.001), visio-spatial processing (JLOT, p<0.001) in comparison to healthy controls. But focused attention (STROOP-spontaneous correction) was not different between two groups (p>0.05). No relationship was found regarding disease duration and disability index with any neurocognitive tests. Conclusions: Our study showed that neurocognitive functions of dystonia patients were worse than control group with the similar age, sex, and education independently clinical expression like disease duration and disability index. This situation may be the result of possible cortical and subcortical changes in dystonia patients. Advanced neuroimaging techniques might be helpful to explain these changes in cervical dystonia patients.

Keywords: cervical dystonia, neurocognitive impairment, neuropsychological test, dystonia disability index

Procedia PDF Downloads 420

Authors: Denis A. Sokolov, Andrey V. Mazurkevich

Abstract:

In the modern world, there is an increasing demand for highly precise measurements in various fields, such as aircraft, shipbuilding, and rocket engineering. This has resulted in the development of appropriate measuring instruments that are capable of measuring the coordinates of objects within a range of up to 100 meters, with an accuracy of up to one micron. The calibration process for such optoelectronic measuring devices (trackers and total stations) involves comparing the measurement results from these devices to a reference measurement based on a linear or spatial basis. The reference used in such measurements could be a reference base or a reference range finder with the capability to measure angle increments (EDM). The base would serve as a set of reference points for this purpose. The concept of the EDM for replicating the unit of measurement has been implemented on a mobile platform, which allows for angular changes in the direction of laser radiation in two planes. To determine the distance to an object, a high-precision interferometer with its own design is employed. The laser radiation travels to the corner reflectors, which form a spatial reference with precisely known positions. When the femtosecond pulses from the reference arm and the measuring arm coincide, an interference signal is created, repeating at the frequency of the laser pulses. The distance between reference points determined by interference signals is calculated in accordance with recommendations from the International Bureau of Weights and Measures for the indirect measurement of time of light passage according to the definition of a meter. This distance is D/2 = c/2nF, approximately 2.5 meters, where c is the speed of light in a vacuum, n is the refractive index of a medium, and F is the frequency of femtosecond pulse repetition. The achieved uncertainty of type A measurement of the distance to reflectors 64 m (N•D/2, where N is an integer) away and spaced apart relative to each other at a distance of 1 m does not exceed 5 microns. The angular uncertainty is calculated theoretically since standard high-precision ring encoders will be used and are not a focus of research in this study. The Type B uncertainty components are not taken into account either, as the components that contribute most do not depend on the selected coordinate measuring method. This technology is being explored in the context of laboratory applications under controlled environmental conditions, where it is possible to achieve an advantage in terms of accuracy. In general, the EDM tests showed high accuracy, and theoretical calculations and experimental studies on an EDM prototype have shown that the uncertainty type A of distance measurements to reflectors can be less than 1 micrometer. The results of this research will be utilized to develop a highly accurate mobile absolute range finder designed for the calibration of high-precision laser trackers and laser rangefinders, as well as other equipment, using a 64 meter laboratory comparator as a reference.

Keywords: femtosecond laser, pulse correlation, interferometer, laser absolute range finder, coordinate measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Thaís T. Valério Caetano, João Máximo De Siqueira, Carlos Alexandre Carollo, Arthur Ladeira Macedo, Vanessa C. Stein

Abstract:

Nicotiana glauca, commonly known as wild tobacco or tobacco bush, belongs to the Solanaceae family. It is native to South America but has become naturalized in various regions, including Australia, California, Africa, and the Mediterranean. N. glauca is listed in the Global Invasive Species Database (GISD) and the Invasive Species Compendium (CABI). It is known for producing pyridine alkaloids, including anabasine, which is highly toxic. Anabasine is predominantly found in the leaves and can cause severe health issues such as neuromuscular blockade, respiratory arrest, and cardiovascular problems when ingested. Mistaken identity with edible plants like spinach has resulted in food poisoning cases in Israel and Brazil. Anabasine, a minor alkaloid constituent of tobacco, may contribute to tobacco addiction by mimicking or enhancing the effects of nicotine. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the production pattern of anabasine and its relationship to the developmental stages of the plant. This study aimed to establish the relationship between the phenological plant age, cultivation place, and the increase in anabasine concentration, which can lead to human intoxication cases. In this study, N. glauca plants were collected from three different rural areas in Brazil for a year to examine leaves at various stages of development. Samples were also obtained from cultivated plants in Marilândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil, as well as from Divinópolis, Minas Gerais, Brazil, and Arraial do Cabo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In vitro cultivated plants on MS medium were included in the study. The collected leaves were dried, powdered, and stored. Alkaloid extraction was performed using a methanol and water mixture, followed by liquid-liquid extraction with chloroform. The anabasine content was determined using HPLC-DAD analysis with nicotine as a standard. The results indicated that anabasine production increases with the plant's development, peaking in adult leaves during the reproduction phase and declining afterward. In vitro, plants showed similar anabasine production to young leaves. The successful adaptation of N. glauca in new environments poses a global problem, and the correlation between anabasine production and the plant's developmental stages has been understudied. The presence of substances produced by the plant can pose a risk to other species, especially when mistaken for edible plants. The findings from this study shed light on the pattern of anabasine production and its association with plant development, contributing to a better understanding of the potential risks associated with N. glauca and the importance of accurate identification.

Keywords: nicotiana glauca graham, global invasive species database, alkaloids, toxic

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: D. Pogliana, A. Maso, N. Milani, D. Panzin, S. Rivaroli, J. Konin

Abstract:

This case aims to identify the role of movement quality during the final stage of return to sport (RTS) in a male amateur football player 13 years old after passing the acute phase of the bilateral Osgood-Schlatter disease (OSD). The patient, after a year from passing the acute phase of OSD with the abstention of physical activity, reports bilateral anterior knee pain at the beginning of the football sport activity. Interventions: After the orthopedist check, who recommended physiotherapy sessions for the correction of motor patterns and the isometric reinforcement of the muscles of the quadriceps, the rehabilitation intervention was developed in 7 weeks through 14 sessions of neuro-motor training (NMT) with a frequency of two weekly sessions and six sessions of muscle-strengthening with a frequency of one weekly session. The sessions of NMT were carried out through free body exercises (or with overloads) with visual bio-feedback with the help of two cameras (one with anterior vision and one with lateral vision of the subject) and a big touch screen. The aim of these sessions of NMT was to modify the dysfunctional motor patterns evaluated by the 2D motion analysis test. The test was carried out at the beginning and at the end of the rehabilitation course and included five movements: single-leg squat (SLS), drop jump (DJ), single-leg hop (SLH), lateral shuffle (LS), and change of direction (COD). Each of these movements was evaluated through the video analysis of dynamic valgus knee, pelvic tilt, trunk control, shock absorption, and motor strategy. A free image analysis software (Kinovea) was then used to calculate scores. Results: Baseline assessment of the subject showed a total score of 59% on the right limb and 64% on the left limb (considering an optimal score above 85%) with large deficits in shock absorption capabilities, the presence of dynamic valgus knee, and dysfunctional motor strategies defined “quadriceps dominant.” After six weeks of training, the subject achieved a total score of 80% on the right limb and 86% on the left limb, with significant improvements in shock absorption capabilities, the presence of dynamic knee valgus, and the employment of more hip-oriented motor strategies on both lower limbs. The improvements shown in dynamic knee valgus, greater hip-oriented motor strategies, and improved shock absorption identified through six weeks of the NMT program can help a teenager amateur football player to manage the anterior knee pain during sports activity. In conclusion, NMT was a good choice to help a 13 years old male amateur football player to return to performance without pain after OSD and can also be used with all this type of athletes of the other teams' sports.

Keywords: movement analysis, neuro-motor training, knee pain, movement strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Sophie-Bo Heinkel, Andrea Rechenburg, Thomas Kistemann

Abstract:

The current status of wellbeing and life satisfaction of subsistence farmers in a wetland in Uganda and the contributing role of place attachment has been assessed. The aim of this study is to shed light on environmental factors supporting wellbeing in a wetland setting. Furthermore, it has been assessed, how the emotional bonding to the wetland as ‘place’ influences the peoples’ wellbeing and life satisfaction. The results shed light on the human-environment-relationship. A survey was carried out in three communities in urban and rural areas in a wetland basin in Uganda. A sample (n=235) provided information about the attachment to the wetland, the participants’ relation to the place of their residence and their emotional wellbeing. The Wellbeing Index (WHO-5) was assessed as well as the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10) and Rosenberg’s Self-Esteem scale (RSE). Furthermore, the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS) was applied as well as the Place Attachment Inventory (PAI), which consists of the two intertwined dimensions of place identity and place dependence. Beside this, binary indicators as ‘feeling save’ and ‘feeling comfortable’ and ‘enjoying to live at the place of residence’ have been assessed. A bivariate correlation analysis revealed a high interconnectivity between all metric scales. Especially, the subscale ‘place identity’ showed significances with all other scales. A cluster analysis revealed three groups, which differed in the perception of place-related indicators and their attachment to the wetland as well as the status of wellbeing. First, a cluster whose majority is dissatisfied with their lives, but mainly had a good status of emotional well-being. This group does not feel attached to the wetland and lives in a town. Comparably less persons of this group feel safe and comfortable at their place of residence. In the second cluster, persons feel highly attached to the wetland and identify with it. This group was characterized by the high number of persons preferring their current place of residence and do not consider moving. All persons feel well and satisfied with their lives. The third group of persons is mainly living in rural areas and feels highly attached to the wetland. They are satisfied with their lives, but only a small minority is in a good emotional state of wellbeing. The emotional attachment to a place influences life satisfaction and, indirectly, the emotional wellbeing. In the present study it could be shown that subsistence farmers are attached to the wetland, as it is the source of their livelihood. While those living in areas with a good infrastructure are less dependent on the wetland and, therefore, less attached to. This feeling also was mirrored in the perception of a place as being safe and comfortable. The identification with a place is crucial for the feeling of being at “home”. Subsistence farmers feel attached to the ecosystem, but they also might be exposed to environmental and social stressors influencing their short-term emotional wellbeing. The provision of place identity is an ecosystem service provided by wetlands, which supports the status of wellbeing in human beings.

Keywords: mental health, positive environments, quality of life, wellbeing

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Thaís T. Valério Caetano, Lívia de Carvalho Ferreira, João Máximo De Siqueira, Carlos Alexandre Carollo, Arthur Ladeira Macedo, Vanessa C. Stein

Abstract:

Nicotiana glauca, commonly known as wild tobacco or tobacco bush, belongs to the Solanaceae family. It is native to South America but has become naturalized in various regions, including Australia, California, Africa, and the Mediterranean. N. glauca is listed in the Global Invasive Species Database (GISD) and the Invasive Species Compendium (CABI). It is known for producing pyridine alkaloids, including anabasine, which is highly toxic. Anabasine is predominantly found in the leaves and can cause severe health issues such as neuromuscular blockade, respiratory arrest, and cardiovascular problems when ingested. Mistaken identity with edible plants like spinach has resulted in food poisoning cases in Israel and Brazil. Anabasine, a minor alkaloid constituent of tobacco, may contribute to tobacco addiction by mimicking or enhancing the effects of nicotine. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the production pattern of anabasine and its relationship to the developmental stages of the plant. This study aimed to establish the relationship between the phenological plant age, cultivation place, and the increase in anabasine concentration, which can lead to human intoxication cases. In this study, N. glauca plants were collected from three different rural areas in Brazil during a year to examine leaves at various stages of development. Samples were also obtained from cultivated plants in Marilândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil, as well as from Divinópolis, Minas Gerais, Brazil, and Arraial do Cabo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In vitro cultivated plants on MS medium were included in the study. The collected leaves were dried, powdered, and stored. Alkaloid extraction was performed using a methanol and water mixture, followed by liquid-liquid extraction with chloroform. The anabasine content was determined using HPLC-DAD analysis with nicotine as a standard. The results indicated that anabasine production increases with the plant's development, peaking in adult leaves during the reproduction phase and declining afterward. In vitro, plants showed similar anabasine production to young leaves. The successful adaptation of N. glauca in new environments poses a global problem, and the correlation between anabasine production and the plant's developmental stages has been understudied. The presence of substances produced by the plant can pose a risk to other species, especially when mistaken for edible plants. The findings from this study shed light on the pattern of anabasine production and its association with plant development, contributing to a better understanding of the potential risks associated with N. glauca and the importance of accurate identification.

Keywords: alkaloid production, invasive species, nicotiana glauca, plant phenology

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Angelis P. Barlampas

Abstract:

Learning Objectives: The purpose of this study is to inform briefly the reader about the applications of AI in chest radiology. Background: Currently, there are 190 FDA-approved radiology AI applications, with 42 (22%) pertaining specifically to thoracic radiology. Imaging findings OR Procedure details Aids of AI in chest radiology1: Detects and segments pulmonary nodules. Subtracts bone to provide an unobstructed view of the underlying lung parenchyma and provides further information on nodule characteristics, such as nodule location, nodule two-dimensional size or three dimensional (3D) volume, change in nodule size over time, attenuation data (i.e., mean, minimum, and/or maximum Hounsfield units [HU]), morphological assessments, or combinations of the above. Reclassifies indeterminate pulmonary nodules into low or high risk with higher accuracy than conventional risk models. Detects pleural effusion . Differentiates tension pneumothorax from nontension pneumothorax. Detects cardiomegaly, calcification, consolidation, mediastinal widening, atelectasis, fibrosis and pneumoperitoneum. Localises automatically vertebrae segments, labels ribs and detects rib fractures. Measures the distance from the tube tip to the carina and localizes both endotracheal tubes and central vascular lines. Detects consolidation and progression of parenchymal diseases such as pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Can evaluate lobar volumes. Identifies and labels pulmonary bronchi and vasculature and quantifies air-trapping. Offers emphysema evaluation. Provides functional respiratory imaging, whereby high-resolution CT images are post-processed to quantify airflow by lung region and may be used to quantify key biomarkers such as airway resistance, air-trapping, ventilation mapping, lung and lobar volume, and blood vessel and airway volume. Assesses the lung parenchyma by way of density evaluation. Provides percentages of tissues within defined attenuation (HU) ranges besides furnishing automated lung segmentation and lung volume information. Improves image quality for noisy images with built-in denoising function. Detects emphysema, a common condition seen in patients with history of smoking and hyperdense or opacified regions, thereby aiding in the diagnosis of certain pathologies, such as COVID-19 pneumonia. It aids in cardiac segmentation and calcium detection, aorta segmentation and diameter measurements, and vertebral body segmentation and density measurements. Conclusion: The future is yet to come, but AI already is a helpful tool for the daily practice in radiology. It is assumed, that the continuing progression of the computerized systems and the improvements in software algorithms , will redder AI into the second hand of the radiologist.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chest imaging, nodule detection, automated diagnoses

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: T. Al-Alawi, N. Shorbaji, E. Rashaidi, M.Alidrisi

Abstract:

Purpose/Objective(s): The main purpose of this study is to analyze the planning of SBRT treatments for localized prostate cancer with 6FFF and 10FFF energies to see if there is a dosimetric difference between the two energies and how we can increase the plan efficiency and reduce its complexity. Also, to introduce a planning method in our department to treat prostate cancer by utilizing high energy photons without increasing patient toxicity and fulfilled all dosimetric constraints for OAR (an organ at risk). Then toevaluate the target 95% coverage PTV95, V5%, V2%, V1%, low dose volume for OAR (V1Gy, V2Gy, V5Gy), monitor unit (beam-on time), and estimate the values of homogeneity index HI, conformity index CI a Gradient index GI for each treatment plan.Materials/Methods: Two treatment plans were generated for15 patients with localized prostate cancer retrospectively using the CT planning image acquired for radiotherapy purposes. Each plan contains two/three complete arcs with two/three different collimator angle sets. The maximum dose rate available is 1400MU/min for the energy 6FFF and 2400MU/min for 10FFF. So in case, we need to avoid changing the gantry speed during the rotation, we tend to use the third arc in the plan with 6FFF to accommodate the high dose per fraction. The clinical target volume (CTV) consists of the entire prostate for organ-confined disease. The planning target volume (PTV) involves a margin of 5 mm. A 3-mm margin is favored posteriorly. Organs at risk identified and contoured include the rectum, bladder, penile bulb, femoral heads, and small bowel. The prescription dose is to deliver 35Gyin five fractions to the PTV and apply constraints for organ at risk (OAR) derived from those reported in references. Results: In terms of CI=0.99, HI=0.7, and GI= 4.1, it was observed that they are all thesame for both energies 6FFF and 10FFF with no differences, but the total delivered MUs are much less for the 10FFF plans (2907 for 6FFF vs.2468 for 10FFF) and the total delivery time is 124Sc for 6FFF vs. 61Sc for 10FFF beams. There were no dosimetric differences between 6FFF and 10FFF in terms of PTV coverage and mean doses; the mean doses for the bladder, rectum, femoral heads, penile bulb, and small bowel were collected, and they were in favor of the 10FFF. Also, we got lower V1Gy, V2Gy, and V5Gy doses for all OAR with 10FFF plans. Integral dosesID in (Gy. L) were recorded for all OAR, and they were lower with the 10FFF plans. Conclusion: High energy 10FFF has lower treatment time and lower delivered MUs; also, 10FFF showed lower integral and meant doses to organs at risk. In this study, we suggest usinga 10FFF beam for SBRTprostate treatment, which has the advantage of lowering the treatment time and that lead to lessplan complexity with respect to 6FFF beams.

Keywords: FFF beam, SBRT prostate, VMAT, prostate cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Malek Miladi, Miguel Vegara, Maria Perez-Infantes, Khaled Mohamed Ramadan, Antonio Ruiz-Canales, Damaris Nunez-Gomez

Abstract:

Coffee is the second consumed commodity worldwide, yet it also generates colossal waste. Proper management of coffee waste is proposed by converting them into products with higher added value to achieve sustainability of the economic and ecological footprint and protect the environment. Based on this, a study looking at the recovery of coffee waste is becoming more relevant in recent decades. Spent coffee grounds (SCG's) resulted from brewing coffee represents the major waste produced among all coffee industry. The fact that SCGs has no economic value be abundant in nature and industry, do not compete with agriculture and especially its high oil content (between 7-15% from its total dry matter weight depending on the coffee varieties, Arabica or Robusta), encourages its use as a sustainable feedstock for bio-oil production. The bio-oil extraction is a crucial step towards biodiesel production by the transesterification process. However, conventional methods used for oil extraction are not recommended due to their high consumption of energy, time, and generation of toxic volatile organic solvents. Thus, finding a sustainable, economical, and efficient extraction technique is crucial to scale up the process and to ensure more environment-friendly production. Under this perspective, the aim of this work was the statistical study to know an efficient strategy for oil extraction by n-hexane using indirect sonication. The coffee waste mixed Arabica and Robusta, which was used in this work. The temperature effect, sonication time, and solvent-to-solid ratio on the oil yield were statistically investigated as dependent variables by Central Composite Rotatable Design (CCRD) 23. The results were analyzed using STATISTICA 7 StatSoft software. The CCRD showed the significance of all the variables tested (P < 0.05) on the process output. The validation of the model by analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed good adjustment for the results obtained for a 95% confidence interval, and also, the predicted values graph vs. experimental values confirmed the satisfactory correlation between the model results. Besides, the identification of the optimum experimental conditions was based on the study of the surface response graphs (2-D and 3-D) and the critical statistical values. Based on the CCDR results, 29 ºC, 56.6 min, and solvent-to-solid ratio 16 were the better experimental conditions defined statistically for coffee waste oil extraction using n-hexane as solvent. In these conditions, the oil yield was >9% in all cases. The results confirmed the efficiency of using an ultrasound bath in extracting oil as a more economical, green, and efficient way when compared to the Soxhlet method.

Keywords: coffee waste, optimization, oil yield, statistical planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

Abstract:

Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Anastasios Zopiatis, Antonis L. Theocharous

Abstract:

In the midst of a fierce war for talent, the hospitality industry is seeking new and innovative ways to enrich its image as an employer of choice and not a necessity. Historically, the industry’s professions are portrayed as ‘unattractive’ due to their repetitious nature, long and unsocial working schedules, below average remunerations, and the mental and physical demands of the job. Aligning with the industry, hospitality and tourism scholars embarked on a journey to investigate pertinent topics with the aim of enhancing our conceptual understanding of the elements that influence employees at the hospitality world of work. Topics such as job involvement, commitment, job and career satisfaction, and turnover intentions became the focal points in a multitude of relevant empirical and conceptual investigations. Nevertheless, gaps or inconsistencies in existing theories, as a result of both the volatile complexity of the relationships governing human behavior in the hospitality workplace, and the academic community’s unopposed acceptance of theoretical frameworks mainly propounded in the United States and United Kingdom years ago, necessitate our continuous vigilance. Thus, in an effort to enhance and enrich the discourse, we set out to investigate the relationship between intrinsic and extrinsic job satisfaction traits and the individual’s career satisfaction, and subsequent intention to remain in the hospitality industry. Reflecting on existing literature, a quantitative survey was developed and administered, face-to-face, to 650 individuals working as full-time employees in 4- and 5- star hotel establishments in Cyprus, whereas a multivariate statistical analysis method, namely Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), was utilized to determine whether relationships existed between constructs as a means to either accept or reject the hypothesized theory. Findings, of interest to both industry stakeholders and academic scholars, suggest that the individual’s future intention to remain within the industry is primarily associated with extrinsic job traits. Our findings revealed that positive associations exist between extrinsic job traits, and both career satisfaction and future intention. In contrast, when investigating the relationship of intrinsic traits, a positive association was revealed only with career satisfaction. Apparently, the local industry’s environmental factors of seasonality, excessive turnover, overdependence on seasonal, and part-time migrant workers, prohibit industry stakeholders in effectively investing the time and resources in the development and professional growth of their employees. Consequently intrinsic job satisfaction factors such as advancement, growth, and achievement, take backstage to the more materialistic extrinsic factors. Findings from the subsequent mediation analysis support the notion that intrinsic traits can positively influence future intentions indirectly only through career satisfaction, whereas extrinsic traits can positively impact both career satisfaction and future intention both directly and indirectly.

Keywords: career satisfaction, Cyprus, hotel employees, structural equation modeling, SEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Matteo Gentilucci, Marco Materazzi, Gilberto Pambianchi

Abstract:

Climate change is an increasingly central issue in the world, because it affects many of human activities. In this context regional studies are of great importance because they sometimes differ from the general trend. This research focuses on a small area of central Italy which overlooks the Adriatic Sea, the province of Macerata. The aim is to analyze space-based climate changes, for precipitation and temperatures, in the last 3 climatological standard normals (1961-1990; 1971-2000; 1981-2010) through GIS software. The data collected from 30 weather stations for temperature and 61 rain gauges for precipitation were subject to quality controls: validation and homogenization. These data were fundamental for the spatialization of the variables (temperature and precipitation) through geostatistical techniques. To assess the best geostatistical technique for interpolation, the results of cross correlation were used. The co-kriging method with altitude as independent variable produced the best cross validation results for all time periods, among the methods analysed, with 'root mean square error standardized' close to 1, 'mean standardized error' close to 0, 'average standard error' and 'root mean square error' with similar values. The maps resulting from the analysis were compared by subtraction between rasters, producing 3 maps of annual variation and three other maps for each month of the year (1961/1990-1971/2000; 1971/2000-1981/2010; 1961/1990-1981/2010). The results show an increase in average annual temperature of about 0.1°C between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 and 0.6 °C between 1961-1990 and 1981-2010. Instead annual precipitation shows an opposite trend, with an average difference from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 of about 35 mm and from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 of about 60 mm. Furthermore, the differences in the areas have been highlighted with area graphs and summarized in several tables as descriptive analysis. In fact for temperature between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 the most areally represented frequency is 0.08°C (77.04 Km² on a total of about 2800 km²) with a kurtosis of 3.95 and a skewness of 2.19. Instead, the differences for temperatures from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 show a most areally represented frequency of 0.83 °C, with -0.45 as kurtosis and 0.92 as skewness (36.9 km²). Therefore it can be said that distribution is more pointed for 1961/1990-1971/2000 and smoother but more intense in the growth for 1961/1990-1981/2010. In contrast, precipitation shows a very similar shape of distribution, although with different intensities, for both variations periods (first period 1961/1990-1971/2000 and second one 1961/1990-1981/2010) with similar values of kurtosis (1st = 1.93; 2nd = 1.34), skewness (1st = 1.81; 2nd = 1.62 for the second) and area of the most represented frequency (1st = 60.72 km²; 2nd = 52.80 km²). In conclusion, this methodology of analysis allows the assessment of small scale climate change for each month of the year and could be further investigated in relation to regional atmospheric dynamics.

Keywords: climate change, GIS, interpolation, co-kriging

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Alexander Otchere Fianko, Clement Yeboah, Evans Oteng

Abstract:

Prior research concludes that Green Procurement Practices positively drive Organisational Performance. Nonetheless, the nexus and conditions under which Green Procurement Practices contribute to a Firm’s Performance are less understood. The purpose of this quantitative relational study was to examine the relationship between Green Procurement Practices and 500 Firms’ Performances in Ghana. The researchers further seek to draw insights from the resource-based view to conceptualize Green Procurement Practices and Environmental Commitment as resource capabilities to enhance Firm Performance. The researchers used insights from the contingent resource-based view to examine Green Leadership Orientation conditions under which Green Procurement Practices contribute to Firm Performance through Environmental Commitment Capabilities. The study’s conceptual framework was tested on primary data from some firms in the Ghanaian market. PROCESS Macro was used to test the study’s hypotheses. Beyond that, Environmental Commitment Capabilities mediated the association between Green Procurement Practices and the Firm’s Performance. The study further seeks to find out whether Green Leadership Orientation positively moderates the indirect relationship between Green Procurement Practices and Firm Performance through Environmental Commitment Capabilities. While conventional wisdom suggests that improved Green Procurement Practices help improve a Firm’s Performance, this study tested this presumed relationship between Green Procurement Practices and Firm Performance and provides theoretical arguments and empirical evidence to justify how Environmental Commitment Capabilities uniquely and in synergy with Green Leadership Orientation transform this relationship. The study results indicated a positive correlation between Green Procurement Practices and Firm Performance. This result suggests that firms that prioritize environmental sustainability and demonstrate a strong commitment to environmentally responsible practices tend to experience better overall performance. This includes financial gains, operational efficiency, enhanced reputation, and improved relationships with stakeholders. The study's findings inform policy formulation in Ghana related to environmental regulations, incentives, and support mechanisms. Policymakers can use the insights to design policies that encourage and reward firms for their Green Procurement Practices, thereby fostering a more sustainable and environmentally responsible business environment. The findings from such research can influence the design and development of educational programs in Ghana, specifically in fields related to sustainability, environmental management, and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Institutions may consider integrating environmental and sustainability topics into their business and management courses to create awareness and promote responsible practices among future business professionals. Also, the study results can also promote the adoption of environmental accounting practices in Ghana. By recognizing and measuring the environmental impacts and costs associated with business activities, firms can better understand the financial implications of their Green Procurement Practices and develop strategies for improved performance.

Keywords: environmental commitment, firm’s performance, green procurement practice, green leadership orientation

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Aya Al Masri, Kamel Guerchouche, Youssef Laynaoui, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

Abstract:

Introduction: Mobile C-arms move throughout operating rooms of the operating theater. Being designed to move between rooms, they are not equipped with relays to retrieve the exposition information and export it outside the room. Therefore, no light signaling is available outside the room to warn the X-ray emission for staff. Inadvertent exposition of staff outside the operating theater is a real problem for radiation protection. The French standard NFC 15-160 require that: (1) access to any room containing an X-ray emitting device must be controlled by a light signage so that it cannot be inadvertently crossed, and (2) setting up an emergency button to stop the X-ray emission. This study presents a system that we developed to meet these requirements and the results of its clinical test. Materials and methods: The system is composed of two communicating boxes: o The "DetectBox" is to be installed inside the operating theater. It identifies the various operation states of the C-arm by analyzing its power supply signal. The DetectBox communicates (in wireless mode) with the second box (AlertBox). o The "AlertBox" can operate in socket or battery mode and is to be installed outside the operating theater. It detects and reports the state of the C-arm by emitting a real time light signal. This latter can have three different colors: red when the C-arm is emitting X-rays, orange when it is powered on but does not emit X-rays, and green when it is powered off. The two boxes communicate on a radiofrequency link exclusively carried out in the ‘Industrial, Scientific and Medical (ISM)’ frequency bands and allows the coexistence of several on-site warning systems without communication conflicts (interference). Taking into account the complexity of performing electrical works in the operating theater (for reasons of hygiene and continuity of medical care), this system (having a size <10 cm²) works in complete safety without any intrusion in the mobile C-arm and does not require specific electrical installation work. The system is equipped with emergency button that stops X-ray emission. The system has been clinically tested. Results: The clinical test of the system shows that: it detects X-rays having both high and low energy (50 – 150 kVp), high and low photon flow (0.5 – 200 mA: even when emitted for a very short time (<1 ms)), Probability of false detection < 10-5, it operates under all acquisition modes (continuous, pulsed, fluoroscopy mode, image mode, subtraction and movie mode), it is compatible with all C-arm models and brands. We have also tested the communication between the two boxes (DetectBox and AlertBox) in several conditions: (1) Unleaded room, (2) leaded room, and (3) rooms with particular configuration (sas, great distances, concrete walls, 3 mm of lead). The result of these last tests was positive. Conclusion: This system is a reliable tool to alert the staff present outside the operating room for X-ray emission and insure their radiation protection.

Keywords: Clinical test, Inadvertent staff exposition, Light signage, Operating theater

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Rabbia Idrees, Ananda Maiti, Saurabh Garg, Muhammad Bilal Amin

Abstract:

IoT devices are the basic building blocks of IoT network that generate enormous volume of real-time and high-speed data to help organizations and companies to take intelligent decisions. To integrate this enormous data from multisource and transfer it to the appropriate client is the fundamental of IoT development. The handling of this huge quantity of devices along with the huge volume of data is very challenging. The IoT devices are battery-powered and resource-constrained and to provide energy efficient communication, these IoT devices go sleep or online/wakeup periodically and a-periodically depending on the traffic loads to reduce energy consumption. Sometime these devices get disconnected due to device battery depletion. If the node is not available in the network, then the IoT network provides incomplete, missing, and inaccurate data. Moreover, many IoT applications, like vehicle tracking and patient tracking require the IoT devices to be mobile. Due to this mobility, If the distance of the device from the sink node become greater than required, the connection is lost. Due to this disconnection other devices join the network for replacing the broken-down and left devices. This make IoT devices dynamic in nature which brings uncertainty and unreliability in the IoT network and hence produce bad quality of data. Due to this dynamic nature of IoT devices we do not know the actual reason of abnormal data. If data are of poor-quality decisions are likely to be unsound. It is highly important to process data and estimate data quality before bringing it to use in IoT applications. In the past many researchers tried to estimate data quality and provided several Machine Learning (ML), stochastic and statistical methods to perform analysis on stored data in the data processing layer, without focusing the challenges and issues arises from the dynamic nature of IoT devices and how it is impacting data quality. A comprehensive review on determining the impact of dynamic nature of IoT devices on data quality is done in this research and presented a data quality model that can deal with this challenge and produce good quality of data. This research presents the data quality model for the sensors monitoring water quality. DBSCAN clustering and weather sensors are used in this research to make data quality model for the sensors monitoring water quality. An extensive study has been done in this research on finding the relationship between the data of weather sensors and sensors monitoring water quality of the lakes and beaches. The detailed theoretical analysis has been presented in this research mentioning correlation between independent data streams of the two sets of sensors. With the help of the analysis and DBSCAN, a data quality model is prepared. This model encompasses five dimensions of data quality: outliers’ detection and removal, completeness, patterns of missing values and checks the accuracy of the data with the help of cluster’s position. At the end, the statistical analysis has been done on the clusters formed as the result of DBSCAN, and consistency is evaluated through Coefficient of Variation (CoV).

Keywords: clustering, data quality, DBSCAN, and Internet of things (IoT)

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

Abstract:

Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 309