Search results for: statistical modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7658

Search results for: statistical modeling

1598 Introducing Two Species of Parastagonospora (Phaeosphaeriaceae) on Grasses from Italy and Russia, Based on Morphology and Phylogeny

Authors: Ishani D. Goonasekara, Erio Camporesi, Timur Bulgakov, Rungtiwa Phookamsak, Kevin D. Hyde

Abstract:

Phaeosphaeriaceae comprises a large number of species occurring mainly on grasses and cereal crops as endophytes, saprobes and especially pathogens. Parastagonospora is an important genus in Phaeosphaeriaceae that includes pathogens causing leaf and glume blotch on cereal crops. Currently, there are fifteen Parastagonospora species described, including both pathogens and saprobes. In this study, one sexual morph species and an asexual morph species, occurring as saprobes on members of Poaceae are introduced based on morphology and a combined molecular analysis of the LSU, SSU, ITS, and RPB2 gene sequence data. The sexual morph species Parastagonospora elymi was isolated from a Russian sample of Elymus repens, a grass commonly known as couch grass, and important for grazing animals, as a weed and used in traditional Austrian medicine. P. elymi is similar to the sexual morph of P. avenae in having cylindrical asci, bearing 8, overlapping biseriate, fusiform ascospores but can be distinguished by its subglobose to conical shaped, wider ascomata. In addition, no sheath was observed surrounding the ascospores. The asexual morph species was isolated from a specimen from Italy, on Dactylis glomerata, a commonly found grass distributed in temperate regions. It is introduced as Parastagonospora macrouniseptata, a coelomycete, and bears a close resemblance to P. allouniseptata and P. uniseptata in having globose to subglobose, pycnidial conidiomata and hyaline, cylindrical, 1-septate conidia. However, the new species could be distinguished in having much larger conidiomata. In the phylogenetic analysis which consisted of a maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis P. elymi showed low bootstrap support, but well segregated from other strains within the Parastagonospora clade. P. neoallouniseptata formed a sister clade with P. allouniseptata with high statistical support.

Keywords: dothideomycetes, multi-gene analysis, Poaceae, saprobes, taxonomy

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1597 Distance and Coverage: An Assessment of Location-Allocation Models for Fire Stations in Kuwait City, Kuwait

Authors: Saad M. Algharib

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The major concern of planners when placing fire stations is finding their optimal locations such that the fire companies can reach fire locations within reasonable response time or distance. Planners are also concerned with the numbers of fire stations that are needed to cover all service areas and the fires, as demands, with standard response time or distance. One of the tools for such analysis is location-allocation models. Location-allocation models enable planners to determine the optimal locations of facilities in an area in order to serve regional demands in the most efficient way. The purpose of this study is to examine the geographic distribution of the existing fire stations in Kuwait City. This study utilized location-allocation models within the Geographic Information System (GIS) environment and a number of statistical functions to assess the current locations of fire stations in Kuwait City. Further, this study investigated how well all service areas are covered and how many and where additional fire stations are needed. Four different location-allocation models were compared to find which models cover more demands than the others, given the same number of fire stations. This study tests many ways to combine variables instead of using one variable at a time when applying these models in order to create a new measurement that influences the optimal locations for locating fire stations. This study also tests how location-allocation models are sensitive to different levels of spatial dependency. The results indicate that there are some districts in Kuwait City that are not covered by the existing fire stations. These uncovered districts are clustered together. This study also identifies where to locate the new fire stations. This study provides users of these models a new variable that can assist them to select the best locations for fire stations. The results include information about how the location-allocation models behave in response to different levels of spatial dependency of demands. The results show that these models perform better with clustered demands. From the additional analysis carried out in this study, it can be concluded that these models applied differently at different spatial patterns.

Keywords: geographic information science, GIS, location-allocation models, geography

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1596 Comparison of Inexpensive Cell Disruption Techniques for an Oleaginous Yeast

Authors: Scott Nielsen, Luca Longanesi, Chris Chuck

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Palm oil is obtained from the flesh and kernel of the fruit of oil palms and is the most productive and inexpensive oil crop. The global demand for palm oil is approximately 75 million metric tonnes, a 29% increase in global production of palm oil since 2016. This expansion of oil palm cultivation has resulted in mass deforestation, vast biodiversity destruction and increasing net greenhouse gas emissions. One possible alternative is to produce a saturated oil, similar to palm, from microbes such as oleaginous yeast. The yeasts can be cultured on sugars derived from second-generation sources and do not compete with tropical forests for land. One highly promising oleaginous yeast for this application is Metschnikowia pulcherrima. However, recent techno-economic modeling has shown that cell lysis and standard lipid extraction are major contributors to the cost of the oil. Typical cell disruption techniques to extract either single cell oils or proteins have been based around bead-beating, homogenization and acid lysis. However, these can have a detrimental effect on lipid quality and are energy-intensive. In this study, a vortex separator, which produces high sheer with minimal energy input, was investigated as a potential low energy method of lysing cells. This was compared to four more traditional methods (thermal lysis, acid lysis, alkaline lysis, and osmotic lysis). For each method, the yeast loading was also examined at 1 g/L, 10 g/L and 100 g/L. The quality of the cell disruption was measured by optical cell density, cell counting and the particle size distribution profile comparison over a 2-hour period. This study demonstrates that the vortex separator is highly effective at lysing the cells and could potentially be used as a simple apparatus for lipid recovery in an oleaginous yeast process. The further development of this technology could potentially reduce the overall cost of microbial lipids in the future.

Keywords: palm oil substitute, metschnikowia pulcherrima, cell disruption, cell lysis

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1595 Moved by Music: The Impact of Music on Fatigue, Arousal and Motivation During Conditioning for High to Elite Level Female Artistic Gymnasts

Authors: Chante J. De Klerk

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The potential of music to facilitate superior performance during high to elite level gymnastics conditioning instigated this research. A team of seven gymnasts completed a fixed conditioning programme eight times, alternating the two variable conditions. Four sessions of each condition were conducted: without music (session 1), with music (session 2), without music (3), with music (4), without music (5), and so forth. Quantitative data were collected in both conditions through physiological monitoring of the gymnasts, and administration of the Situational Motivation Scale (SIMS). Statistical analysis of the physiological data made it possible to quantify the presence as well as the magnitude of the musical intervention’s impact on various aspects of the gymnasts' physiological functioning during conditioning. The SIMS questionnaire results were used to evaluate if their motivation towards conditioning was altered by the intervention. Thematic analysis of qualitative data collected through semi-structured interviews revealed themes reflecting the gymnasts’ sentiments towards the data collection process. Gymnast-specific descriptions and experiences of the team as a whole were integrated with the quantitative data to facilitate greater dimension in establishing the impact of the intervention. The results showed positive physiological, motivational, and emotional effects. In the presence of music, superior sympathetic nervous activation, and energy efficiency, with more economic breathing, dominated the physiological data. Fatigue and arousal levels (emotional and physiological) were also conducive to improved conditioning outcomes compared to conventional conditioning (without music). Greater levels of positive affect and motivation emerged in analysis of both the SIMS and interview data sets. Overall, the intervention was found to promote psychophysiological coherence during the physical activity. In conclusion, a strategically constructed musical intervention, designed to accompany a gymnastics conditioning session for high to elite level gymnasts, has ergogenic potential.

Keywords: arousal, fatigue, gymnastics conditioning, motivation, musical intervention, psychophysiological coherence

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1594 TLR4 Gene Polymorphism and Biochemical Markers as a Tool to Identify Risk of Osteoporosis in Women from Karachi

Authors: Rozeena Baig, R. Rehana Rehman, Rifat Ahmed

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Background: Osteoporosis, characterized by low bone mineral density, poses a global health concern. Diagnosis increases the likelihood of developing osteoporosis, a multifactorial disorder marked by low bone mass, elevating the risk of fractures in the lumbar spine, femoral neck, hip, vertebras, and distal forearm, particularly in postmenopausal women due to bone loss influenced by various pathophysiological factors. Objectives: The aim is to investigate the association of serum cytokine, bone turnover marker, bone mineral density and TLR4 gene polymorphism in pre and post-menopausal women and to find if any of these can be the potential predictor of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Material and methods: The study participants consisted of Group A (n=91) healthy pre-menopausal women and Group B (n=102) healthy postmenopausal women having ≥ 5 years’ history of menopause. ELISA was performed for cytokine (TNFα) and bone turnover markers (carboxytelopeptides), respectively. Bone Mineral Density (BMD)was measured through a dual X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scan. Toll-like Receptors 4 (TLR4) gene polymorphisms (A896G; Asp299Gly) and (C1196T; Thr399Ile) were investigated by PCR and Sanger sequencing. Results: Statistical analysis reveals a positive correlation of age and BMI with T scores in the premenopausal group, whereas in post-menopausal group found a significant negative correlation between age and T-score at hip (r = - 0.352**), spine (r = - .306**), and femoral neck (r = - 0.344**) and a significant negative correlation of BMI with TNF-α (- 0.316**). No association and significant differences were observed for TLR4 genotype and allele frequencies among studied groups However, both SNPs exhibited significant association with each other. Conclusions: This study concludes that BMI, BMD and TNF-α are the potential predictors of osteoporosis in post-menopausal women. However, CTX and TLR4 gene polymorphism did not appear as potential predictors of bone loss in this study and apparently cannot help in predicting bone loss in post-menopausal women.

Keywords: osteoporosis, post-menopausal, pre-menopausal woemn, genetics mutaiont, TLR4 genepolymorphsum

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1593 Prevalence and Predictors of Metabolic Syndrome among Diabetic Clinic Attendees in Sokoto, Nigeria

Authors: Kehinde Joseph Awosan, Balarabe Adami Isah, Edzu Usman Yunusa, Sarafadeen Adeniyi Arisegi, Izuchukwu Obasi, Oluchi Solomon-Anucha

Abstract:

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is prevalent in patients with diabetes mellitus and a significant risk for major cardiovascular events. Identifying its burden and peculiarities is crucial to preventing complications among those at risk. Aim: This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and predictors of metabolic syndrome among diabetes clinic attendees in Sokoto, Nigeria. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 365 patients with type 2 diabetes attending the diabetes clinic of Specialist Hospital, Sokoto, Nigeria. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain data on the respondents’ socio-demographic variables, treatment history, and lifestyle. Blood pressure and anthropometric measurements (including weight, height, and waist circumference) were done for the patients. Likewise, biochemical assessment (including fasting plasma glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), and triglyceride (TG) was done. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III). Data were analyzed using the IBM Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25. Results: The ages of the patients ranged from 30 to 78 (mean = 50.9 ±11.7) years. The overall prevalence of MetS was 57.3%, with a higher prevalence in females (68.1%) than males (43.0%). The most common components of MetS observed were hypertension (69.2%), and elevated fasting plasma glucose (65.7%); while the predictors of MetS were age > 50 years (OR 6.960, 95% CI: 3.836-12.628, p < 0.001), female sex (OR 2.300, 95% CI: 1.355-3.903, p = 0.002), physical activity (OR 0.214, 95% CI: 0.126-0.363, p < 0.001), and overweight/obesity (OR 3.356, 95% CI: 1.838-6.127, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome is prevalent among patients with type 2 diabetes in Sokoto, Nigeria, and the predictors were age > 50 years, female sex, physical activity, and overweight/obesity. Diabetes care providers should screen their patients for MetS to prevent adverse cardiovascular events.

Keywords: prevalence, predictors, metabolic syndrome, diabetes

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1592 Facilitating Factors for the Success of Mobile Service Providers in Bangkok Metropolitan

Authors: Yananda Siraphatthada

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The objectives of this research were to study the level of influencing factors, leadership, supply chain management, innovation, competitive advantages, business success, and affecting factors to the business success of the mobile phone system service providers in Bangkok Metropolitan. This research was done by the quantitative approach and the qualitative approach. The quantitative approach was used for questionnaires to collect data from the 331 mobile service shop managers franchised by AIS, Dtac and TrueMove. The mobile phone system service providers/shop managers were randomly stratified and proportionally allocated into subgroups exclusive to the number of the providers in each network. In terms of qualitative method, there were in-depth interviews of 6 mobile service providers/managers of Telewiz and Dtac and TrueMove shop to find the agreement or disagreement with the content analysis method. Descriptive Statistics, including Frequency, Percentage, Means and Standard Deviation were employed; also, the Structural Equation Model (SEM) was used as a tool for data analysis. The content analysis method was applied to identify key patterns emerging from the interview responses. The two data sets were brought together for comparing and contrasting to make the findings, providing triangulation to enrich result interpretation. It revealed that the level of the influencing factors – leadership, innovation management, supply chain management, and business competitiveness had an impact at a great level, but that the level of factors, innovation and the business, financial success and nonbusiness financial success of the mobile phone system service providers in Bangkok Metropolitan, is at the highest level. Moreover, the business influencing factors, competitive advantages in the business of mobile system service providers which were leadership, supply chain management, innovation management, business advantages, and business success, had statistical significance at .01 which corresponded to the data from the interviews.

Keywords: mobile service providers, facilitating factors, Bangkok Metropolitan, business success

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1591 Monitoring Prospective Sites for Water Harvesting Structures Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems-Based Modeling in Egypt

Authors: Shereif. H. Mahmoud

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Egypt has limited water resources, and it will be under water stress by the year 2030. Therefore, Egypt should consider natural and non-conventional water resources to overcome such a problem. Rain harvesting is one solution. This Paper presents a geographic information system (GIS) methodology - based on decision support system (DSS) that uses remote sensing data, filed survey, and GIS to identify potential RWH areas. The input into the DSS includes a map of rainfall surplus, slope, potential runoff coefficient (PRC), land cover/use, soil texture. In addition, the outputs are map showing potential sites for RWH. Identifying suitable RWH sites implemented in the ArcGIS model environment using the model builder of ArcGIS 10.1. Based on Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) analysis taking into account five layers, the spatial extents of RWH suitability areas identified using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE). The suitability model generated a suitability map for RWH with four suitability classes, i.e. Excellent, Moderate, Poor, and unsuitable. The spatial distribution of the suitability map showed that the excellent suitable areas for RWH concentrated in the northern part of Egypt. According to their averages, 3.24% of the total area have excellent and good suitability for RWH, while 45.04 % and 51.48 % of the total area are moderate and unsuitable suitability, respectively. The majority of the areas with excellent suitability have slopes between 2 and 8% and with an intensively cultivated area. The major soil type in the excellent suitable area is loam and the rainfall range from 100 up to 200 mm. Validation of the used technique depends on comparing existing RWH structures locations with the generated suitability map using proximity analysis tool of ArcGIS 10.1. The result shows that most of exiting RWH structures categorized as successful.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting (RWH), geographic information system (GIS), analytical hierarchy process (AHP), multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), decision support system (DSS)

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1590 Pavement Management for a Metropolitan Area: A Case Study of Montreal

Authors: Luis Amador Jimenez, Md. Shohel Amin

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Pavement performance models are based on projections of observed traffic loads, which makes uncertain to study funding strategies in the long run if history does not repeat. Neural networks can be used to estimate deterioration rates but the learning rate and momentum have not been properly investigated, in addition, economic evolvement could change traffic flows. This study addresses both issues through a case study for roads of Montreal that simulates traffic for a period of 50 years and deals with the measurement error of the pavement deterioration model. Travel demand models are applied to simulate annual average daily traffic (AADT) every 5 years. Accumulated equivalent single axle loads (ESALs) are calculated from the predicted AADT and locally observed truck distributions combined with truck factors. A back propagation Neural Network (BPN) method with a Generalized Delta Rule (GDR) learning algorithm is applied to estimate pavement deterioration models capable of overcoming measurement errors. Linear programming of lifecycle optimization is applied to identify M&R strategies that ensure good pavement condition while minimizing the budget. It was found that CAD 150 million is the minimum annual budget to good condition for arterial and local roads in Montreal. Montreal drivers prefer the use of public transportation for work and education purposes. Vehicle traffic is expected to double within 50 years, ESALS are expected to double the number of ESALs every 15 years. Roads in the island of Montreal need to undergo a stabilization period for about 25 years, a steady state seems to be reached after.

Keywords: pavement management system, traffic simulation, backpropagation neural network, performance modeling, measurement errors, linear programming, lifecycle optimization

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1589 Perception of Customers towards Service Quality: A Comparative Analysis of Organized and Unorganised Retail Stores (with Special Reference to Bhopal City)

Authors: Abdul Rashid, Varsha Rokade

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Service Quality within retail units is pivotal for satisfying customers and retaining them. This study on customer perception towards Service Quality variables in Retail aims to identify the dimensions and their impact on customers. An analytical study of the different retail service quality variables was done to understand the relationship between them. The study tries exploring the factors that attract the customers towards the organised and unorganised retail stores in the capital city of Madhya Pradesh, India. As organised retailers are seen as offering similar products in the outlets, improving service quality is seen as critical to ensuring competitive advantage over unorganised retailers. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire on a five-point Likert scale from existing walk-in customers of selected organised and unorganised retail stores in Bhopal City of Madhya Pradesh, India. The data was then analysed by factor analysis using (SPSS) Statistical Package for the Social Sciences especially Percentage analysis, ANOVA and Chi-Square. This study tries to find interrelationship between various Retail Service Quality dimensions, which will help the retailers to identify the steps needed to improve the overall quality of service. Thus, the findings of the study prove to be helpful in understanding the service quality variables which should be considered by organised and unorganised retail stores in Capital city of Madhya Pradesh, India.Also, findings of this empirical research reiterate the point of view that dimensions of Service Quality in Retail play an important role in enhancing customer satisfaction – a sector with high growth potential and tremendous opportunities in rapidly growing economies like India’s. With the introduction of FDI in multi-brand retailing, a large number of international retail players are expected to enter the Indian market, this intern will bring more competition in the retail sector. For benchmarking themselves with global standards, the Indian retailers will have to improve their service quality.

Keywords: organized retail, unorganised retail, retail service quality, service quality dimension

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1588 The Effect of Observational Practice on the Volleyball Service Learning with Emphasis on the Role of Self–Efficacy

Authors: Majed Zobairy, Payam Mohammadpanahi

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Introduction: Skill movement education is one of extremely important duty for sport coaches and sport teachers. Researchers have done lots of studies in this filed to gain the best methodology in movement learning. One of the essential aspects in skill movement education is observational learning. Observational learning, or learning by watching demonstrations, has been characterized as one of the most important methods by which people learn variety of skill and behaviours.The purpose of this study was determined the effect of observational practice on the volleyball service learning with emphasis on the Role of Self–Efficacy. Methods: The Sample consisted of100 male students was assigned accessible sampling technique and homogeneous manner with emphasis on the Role of Self–Efficacy level to 4 groups. The first group performed physical training, the second group performed observational practice task, the third practiced physically and observationally and the fourth group served as the control group. The experimental groups practiced in a one day acquisition and performed the retention task, after 72 hours. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and independent t-test were used for Statistical analyses. Results and Discussion: Results shows that observation practice task group can significantly improve volleyball services skills acquisition (T=7.73). Also mixed group (physically and observationally) is significantly better than control group regarding to volleyball services skills acquisition (T=7.04). Conclusion: Results have shown observation practice task group and mixed group are significantly better than control group in acquisition test. The present results are in line with previous studies, suggesting that observation learning can improve performance. On the other hand, results shows that self-efficacy level significantly effect on acquisition movement skill. In other words, high self-efficacy is important factor in skill learning level in volleyball service.

Keywords: observational practice, volleyball service, self–efficacy, sport science

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1587 Perceived Effects of Alcohol Abuse on Ordinary Level Students at Gatsi Secondary School

Authors: Chimeri Muzano Leonard

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The study was carried out to investigate the perceptions of male and female Ordinary Level students on the effects of alcohol abuse at Gatsi Secondary School. The study showed that alcohol abuse has academic, social, psychological and health effects on Ordinary Level students. The negative effects comprises of death, dropping out, poor grades, poor concentration, risky behaviors, impairment of the brain and central nervous system , risky behaviors and Impairment of reproductive functioning Only students who enrolled for Ordinary Level in the 2014 academic year participated in this study. Fifty students (25 males and 25 females) were randomly selected to participate in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data. The respondents were asked to use a scale of 0 (totally disagree) to 10 (completely agree) to indicate the extent to which they agreed with each perception. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 19.0 was used for data analysis. The Mann Whitney U test was used to test for the significance of differences in the perceptions of male and female students. No statistically significant differences were detected between males and females in most of their perceptions regarding the effects of alcohol abuse on Ordinary Level students. However, there were three perceptions found to be significantly different between male and female. They comprises of “Peers influence one to drink alcohol”, “Alcohol abuse is a major problem among male students compared to their female peers” and “ Female students should not drink beer”.It was evident from this study that Gatsi Secondary School needs to implement more effective interventions that combat alcohol abuse. A deeper analysis of the issues that predispose Ordinary Level students to alcohol abuse should inform the interventions. Consequently, unravelling the problem of negative effects of alcohol abuse was desirable because of its potential usefulness in developing strategies that might help curb the problem and presumably improve the performance of Ordinary Level students and above all the quality of education at Gatsi Secondary School.

Keywords: perceived effects, alcohol, Gatsi Secondary School, alcohol abuse

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1586 Prevalence, Antimicrobial Susceptibility Pattern and Associated Risk Factors for Salmonella Species and Escherichia coli from Raw Meat at Butchery Houses in Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia

Authors: Haftay Abraha Tadesse, Atsebaha Gebrekidan Kahsay, Mahumd Abdulkader

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Background: Salmonella species and Escherichia coli are important foodborne pathogens affecting humans and animals. They are among the most important causes of infection that are associated with the consumption of contaminated food. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence, antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and associated risk factors for Salmonella species and E. coli in raw meat from butchery houses of Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted from January to September 2019. Socio-demographic data and risk factors were collected using a predesigned questionnaire. Meat samples were collected aseptically from the butchery houses and transported using icebox to Mekelle University, College of Veterinary Sciences for the isolation and identification of Salmonella species and E. coli, Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns were determined using Kirby disc diffusion method. Data obtained were cleaned and entered into Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 22 and logistic regression models with odds ratio were calculated. P-value < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: A total of 153 out of 384 (39.8%) of the meat specimens were found to be contaminated. The contamination of Salmonella species and E. coli were 15.6% (n=60) and 20.8%) (n=80), respectively. Mixed contamination (Salmonella species and E. coli) was observed in 13 (3.4 %) of the analyzed. Poor washing hands regularly (AOR = 8.37; 95% CI: 2.75-25.50) and not using gloves during meat handling (AOR=11. 28; 95% CI: (4.69 27.10) were associated with an overall bacterial contamination.About 95.5% of the tested isolates were sensitive to chloramphenicol and norfloxacin while the resistance of amoxyclav_amoxicillin and erythromycin were both isolated bacteria species. The overall multidrug resistance pattern for Salmonella and E. coli were 51.4% (n=19) and 31.8% (14), respectively. Conclusion: Of the 153 (153/384) contaminated raw meat, 60 (15.6%) and 80 (20.8%) were contaminated by Salmonella species and E. coli, respectively. Poor hand washing practice and not using glove during meat handling showed significant association with bacterial contamination. Multidrug-resistant showed in Salmonella species and E. coli were 19 (51.4%) and 14 (31.8%), respectively.

Keywords: antimicrobial susceptibility test, butchery houses, e. coli, salmonella species

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1585 Bounded Rational Heterogeneous Agents in Artificial Stock Markets: Literature Review and Research Direction

Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent's attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents’ interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: artificial stock markets, market dynamics, bounded rationality, agent based simulation, learning, interaction, social networks

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1584 An Ecological Systems Approach to Risk and Protective Factors of Sibling Conflict for Children in the United Kingdom

Authors: C. A. Bradley, D. Patsios, D. Berridge

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This paper presents evidence to better understand the risk and protective factors related to sibling conflict and the patterns of association between sibling conflict and negative adjustment outcomes by incorporating additional familial and societal factors within statistical models of risk and adjustment. It was conducted through the secondary analysis of a large representative cross-sectional dataset of children in the UK. The original study includes proxy interviews for young children and self-report interviews for adolescents. The study applies an ecological systems framework for the analyses. Hierarchical regression models assess risk and protective factors and adjustment outcomes associated with sibling conflict. Interactions reveal differential effect between contextual risk factors and the social context of influence. The general pattern of findings suggested that, although factors affecting likelihood of experiencing sibling conflict were often determined by child age, some remained consistent across childhood. These factors were often conditional on each other, reinforcing the importance of an ecological framework. Across both age-groups, sibling conflict was associated with siblings closer in age; male sibling groups; most advantaged socio-economic group; and exposure to community violence, such as witnessing violent assault or robbery. The study develops the evidence base on the influence of ethnicity and socio-economic group on sibling conflict by exploring interactions between social context. It also identifies key new areas of influence – such as family structure, disability, and community violence in exacerbating or reducing risk of conflict. The study found negative associations between sibling conflict and young children’s mental well-being and adolescents' mental well-being and anti-social behaviour, but also more context specific associations – such as sibling conflict moderating the negative impact of adversity and high risk experiences for young children such as parental violence toward the child.

Keywords: adjustment, conflict, ecological systems, family systems, risk and protective factors, sibling

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1583 Parking Service Effectiveness at Commercial Malls

Authors: Ahmad AlAbdullah, Ali AlQallaf, Mahdi Hussain, Mohammed AlAttar, Salman Ashknani, Magdy Helal

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We study the effectiveness of the parking service provided at Kuwaiti commercial malls and explore potential problems and feasible improvements. Commercial malls are important to Kuwaitis as the entertainment and shopping centers due to the lack of other alternatives. The difficulty and relatively long times wasted in finding a parking spot at the mall are real annoyances. We applied queuing analysis to one of the major malls that offer paid-parking (1040 parking spots) in addition to free parking. Patrons of the mall usually complained of the traffic jams and delays at entering the paid parking (average delay to park exceeds 15 min for about 62% of the patrons, while average time spent in the mall is about 2.6 hours). However, the analysis showed acceptable service levels at the check-in gates of the parking garage. Detailed review of the vehicle movement at the gateways indicated that arriving and departing cars both had to share parts of the gateway to the garage, which caused the traffic jams and delays. A simple comparison we made indicated that the largest commercial mall in Kuwait does not suffer such parking issues, while other smaller, yet important malls do, including the one we studied. It was suggested that well-designed inlets and outlets of that gigantic mall permitted smooth parking despite being totally free and mall is the first choice for most people for entertainment and shopping. A simulation model is being developed for further analysis and verification. Simulation can overcome the mathematical difficulty in using non-Poisson queuing models. The simulation model is used to explore potential changes to the parking garage entrance layout. And with the inclusion of the drivers’ behavior inside the parking, effectiveness indicators can be derived to address the economic feasibility of extending the parking capacity and increasing service levels. Outcomes of the study are planned to be generalized as appropriate to other commercial malls in Kuwait

Keywords: commercial malls, parking service, queuing analysis, simulation modeling

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1582 Sustainability Reporting and Performances of the Companies in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Sustainability Index

Authors: Zeynep Şahin, Züleyha Yılmaz, Fikret Çankaya

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In today's business world, in which it is difficult to survive, the economic life of products, services or knowledge is considerably reduced. Competitors produce similar products or extra-featured ones instantly. In this environment, the contribution of companies to the social and economic environment is a preferred criterion by consumers alongside products or services. Therefore, consumers need to obtain more detailed information about companies. Besides, this drastic change in the market encourages companies to become sustainable. Sustainable business means the company puts consumed products back. Corporate sustainability, corresponds to sustainability at the level of the company, and gives equal importance to company growth and profitability together with environmental and social issues. The BIST Sustainability Index started to be calculated by the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) in 2014 to evaluate the sustainability performance of companies in Turkey. The main objective of this study is to present the importance of sustainability reports in Turkey. To this aim, the performances of 15 companies in the BIST Sustainability Index were compared the periods before and after entering the index. On the other hand, sustainability reporting practices should be encouraged to increase studies on this issue. In this context, to remain on the agenda of the issue is a further objective of this study. To achieve these objectives, the financial data of the companies in the period before and after entering to the BIST Sustainability Index were analyzed using t-test in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) package. The results of the study showed that no significant difference between the performances of the companies in terms of the net profit margin, the return on assets and equity capital in these periods could be found. Therefore, it can be said that insufficient importance is given to sustainability issues in Turkey. The reasons for this situation might be considered as a lack of awareness due to the recent introduction and calculation of the index. It is expected that the awareness of firms and investors about sustainability will increase, and that they will demonstrate the necessary importance to this issue over time.

Keywords: sustainability reporting, sustainability index, firm performance, BIST sustainability index

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1581 Using 3D Satellite Imagery to Generate a High Precision Canopy Height Model

Authors: M. Varin, A. M. Dubois, R. Gadbois-Langevin, B. Chalghaf

Abstract:

Good knowledge of the physical environment is essential for an integrated forest planning. This information enables better forecasting of operating costs, determination of cutting volumes, and preservation of ecologically sensitive areas. The use of satellite images in stereoscopic pairs gives the capacity to generate high precision 3D models, which are scale-adapted for harvesting operations. These models could represent an alternative to 3D LiDAR data, thanks to their advantageous cost of acquisition. The objective of the study was to assess the quality of stereo-derived canopy height models (CHM) in comparison to a traditional LiDAR CHM and ground tree-height samples. Two study sites harboring two different forest stand types (broadleaf and conifer) were analyzed using stereo pairs and tri-stereo images from the WorldView-3 satellite to calculate CHM. Acquisition of multispectral images from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was also realized on a smaller part of the broadleaf study site. Different algorithms using two softwares (PCI Geomatica and Correlator3D) with various spatial resolutions and band selections were tested to select the 3D modeling technique, which offered the best performance when compared with LiDAR. In the conifer study site, the CHM produced with Corelator3D using only the 50-cm resolution panchromatic band was the one with the smallest Root-mean-square deviation (RMSE: 1.31 m). In the broadleaf study site, the tri-stereo model provided slightly better performance, with an RMSE of 1.2 m. The tri-stereo model was also compared to the UAV, which resulted in an RMSE of 1.3 m. At individual tree level, when ground samples were compared to satellite, lidar, and UAV CHM, RMSE were 2.8, 2.0, and 2.0 m, respectively. Advanced analysis was done for all of these cases, and it has been noted that RMSE is reduced when the canopy cover is higher when shadow and slopes are lower and when clouds are distant from the analyzed site.

Keywords: very high spatial resolution, satellite imagery, WorlView-3, canopy height models, CHM, LiDAR, unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV

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1580 Critical Factors Boosting the Future Economy of Eritrea: An Empirical Approach

Authors: Biniam Tedros Kahsay, Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay

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Eritrea is a country in the East of Africa. The country is a neighbor of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Sudan and is bordered by the Red Sea. The country declared its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. Thus, Eritrea has a lot of commonalities with the Northern Part of Ethiopia's tradition, religion, and languages. Many economists suggested that Eritrea is in a very strategic position for world trade roots and has an impact on geopolitics. This study focused on identifying the most important factor in boosting the Eritrean Economy. The paper collected big secondary data from the World Bank, International Trade and Tariff Data (WTO), East African Community (EAC), Ethiopian Statistical Agency (ESA), and the National Statistics Office (Eritrea). Economists consider economic and population growth in determining trade belts in East Africa. One of the most important Trade Belt that will potentially boost the Eritrean economy is the root of Eritrea (Massawa)->Eritea, (Asmara)->Tigray, (Humora)->Tigray, (Dansha)-> Gondar-> Gojjam-> Benshangual Gumuz => {Oromia, South Sudan}->Uganda. The estimate showed that this is one of the biggest trade roots in East Africa and has a participation of more than 150 million people. We employed various econometric analyses to predict the GDP of Eritrea, considering the future trade belts in East Africa. The result showed that the economy of Eritrea from the Trade Belt will have an elasticity estimate of 65.87% of the GDP of Ethiopia, 3.32% of the GDP of South Sudan, and 0.09% of the GDP of Uganda. The result showed that the existence of war has an elasticity of -93% to the GDP of the country. Thus, if Eritrea wants to strengthen its economy from the East African Trade Belt, the country needs to permanently avoid war in the region. Essentially, the country needs to establish a collaborative platform with the Northern part of Ethiopia (Tigray). Thus, establishing a mutual relationship with Tigray will boost the Eritrean economy. In that regard, Eritrean scholars and policymakers need to work on establishing the East African Trade Belt to boost their economy.

Keywords: Eritrea, east Africa trade belt, GDP, cointegration analysis, critical path analysis

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1579 Evaluation of Complications Observed in Porcelain Fused to Metal Crowns Placed at a Teaching Institution

Authors: Shizrah Jamal, Robia Ghafoor, Farhan Raza

Abstract:

Porcelain fused to metal crown is the most versatile variety of crown that is commonly placed worldwide. Various complications have been reported in the PFM crowns with use over the period of time. These include chipping of the porcelain, recurrent caries, loss of retention, open contacts, and tooth fracture. The objective of the present study was to determine the frequency of these complications in crowns cemented over a period of five years in a tertiary care hospital and also to report the survival of these crowns. A retrospective study was conducted in Dental clinics, Aga Khan University Hospital in which 150 PFM crowns cemented over a period of five years were evaluated. Patient demographics, oral hygiene habits, para-functional habits, crown insertion and follow-up dates were recorded in a specially designed proforma. All PFM crowns fulfilling the inclusion criteria were assessed both clinically and radiographically for the presence of any complication. SPSS version 22.0 was used for statistical analysis. Frequency distribution and proportion of complications were determined. Chi-square test was used to determine the association of complications of PFM crowns with multiple variables including tooth wear, opposing dentition and betel nut chewing. Kaplan- meier survival analysis was used to determine the survival of PFM crowns over the period of five years. Level of significance was kept at 0.05. A total of 107 patients, with a mean age of 43.51 + 12.4 years, having 150 PFM crowns were evaluated. The most common complication observed was open proximal contacts (8.7%) followed by porcelain chipping (6%), decementation (5.3%), and abutment fracture (1.3%). Chi square test showed that there was no statistically significant association of PFM crown complication with tooth wear, betel nut and opposing dentition (p-value <0.05). The overall success and survival rates of PFM crowns turned out to be 78.7 and 84.7% respectively. Within the limitations of the study, it can be concluded that PFM crowns are an effective treatment modality with high success and survival rates. Since it was a single centered study; the results should be generalized with caution.

Keywords: chipping, complication, crown, survival rate

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1578 Scheduling Building Projects: The Chronographical Modeling Concept

Authors: Adel Francis

Abstract:

Most of scheduling methods and software apply the critical path logic. This logic schedule activities, apply constraints between these activities and try to optimize and level the allocated resources. The extensive use of this logic produces a complex an erroneous network hard to present, follow and update. Planning and management building projects should tackle the coordination of works and the management of limited spaces, traffic, and supplies. Activities cannot be performed without the resources available and resources cannot be used beyond the capacity of workplaces. Otherwise, workspace congestion will negatively affect the flow of works. The objective of the space planning is to link the spatial and temporal aspects, promote efficient use of the site, define optimal site occupancy rates, and ensures suitable rotation of the workforce in the different spaces. The Chronographic scheduling modelling belongs to this category and models construction operations as well as their processes, logical constraints, association and organizational models, which help to better illustrate the schedule information using multiple flexible approaches. The model defined three categories of areas (punctual, surface and linear) and four different layers (space creation, systems, closing off space, finishing, and reduction of space). The Chronographical modelling is a more complete communication method, having the ability to alternate from one visual approach to another by manipulation of graphics via a set of parameters and their associated values. Each individual approach can help to schedule a certain project type or specialty. Visual communication can also be improved through layering, sheeting, juxtaposition, alterations, and permutations, allowing for groupings, hierarchies, and classification of project information. In this way, graphic representation becomes a living, transformable image, showing valuable information in a clear and comprehensible manner, simplifying the site management while simultaneously utilizing the visual space as efficiently as possible.

Keywords: building projects, chronographic modelling, CPM, critical path, precedence diagram, scheduling

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1577 Evaluation of Reliability Flood Control System Based on Uncertainty of Flood Discharge, Case Study Wulan River, Central Java, Indonesia

Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

Abstract:

The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

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1576 An Analysis of the Regression Hypothesis from a Shona Broca’s Aphasci Perspective

Authors: Esther Mafunda, Simbarashe Muparangi

Abstract:

The present paper tests the applicability of the Regression Hypothesis on the pathological language dissolution of a Shona male adult with Broca’s aphasia. It particularly assesses the prediction of the Regression Hypothesis, which states that the process according to which language is forgotten will be the reversal of the process according to which it will be acquired. The main aim of the paper is to find out whether mirror symmetries between L1 acquisition and L1 dissolution of tense in Shona and, if so, what might cause these regression patterns. The paper also sought to highlight the practical contributions that Linguistic theory can make to solving language-related problems. Data was collected from a 46-year-old male adult with Broca’s aphasia who was receiving speech therapy at St Giles Rehabilitation Centre in Harare, Zimbabwe. The primary data elicitation method was experimental, using the probe technique. The TART (Test for Assessing Reference Time) Shona version in the form of sequencing pictures was used to access tense by Broca’s aphasic and 3.5-year-old child. Using the SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Studies) and Excel analysis, it was established that the use of the future tense was impaired in Shona Broca’s aphasic whilst the present and past tense was intact. However, though the past tense was intact in the male adult with Broca’s aphasic, a reference to the remote past was made. The use of the future tense was also found to be difficult for the 3,5-year-old speaking child. No difficulties were encountered in using the present and past tenses. This means that mirror symmetries were found between L1 acquisition and L1 dissolution of tense in Shona. On the basis of the results of this research, it can be concluded that the use of tense in a Shona adult with Broca’s aphasia supports the Regression Hypothesis. The findings of this study are important in terms of speech therapy in the context of Zimbabwe. The study also contributes to Bantu linguistics in general and to Shona linguistics in particular. Further studies could also be done focusing on the rest of the Bantu language varieties in terms of aphasia.

Keywords: Broca’s Aphasia, regression hypothesis, Shona, language dissolution

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1575 Clinical and Microbiologic Efficacy and Safety of Imipenem Cilastatin Relebactam in Complicated Infections: A Meta-analysis

Authors: Syeda Sahra, Abdullah Jahangir, Rachelle Hamadi, Ahmad Jahangir, Allison Glaser

Abstract:

Background: Antimicrobial resistance is on the rise. The use of redundant and inappropriate antibiotics is contributing to recurrent infections and resistance. Newer antibiotics with more robust coverage for gram-negative bacteria are in great demand for complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs), complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs), hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia (H.A.B.P.), and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (V.A.B.P.). Objective: We performed this meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy and safety profile of a new antibiotic, Imipenem/cilastatin/relebactam, compared to other broad-spectrum antibiotics for complicated infections. Search Strategy: We conducted a systemic review search on PubMed, Embase, and Central Cochrane Registry. Selection Criteria: We included randomized clinical trials (R.C.T.s) with the standard of care as comparator arm with Imipenem/cilastatin/relebactam as intervention arm. Analysis: For continuous variables, the mean difference was used. For discrete variables, we used the odds ratio. For effect sizes, we used a confidence interval of 95%. A p-value of less than 0.05 was used for statistical significance. Analysis was done using a random-effects model irrespective of heterogeneity. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic. Results: The authors observed similar efficacy at clinical and microbiologic response levels on early follow-up and late follow-up compared to the established standard of care. The incidence of drug-related adverse events, serious adverse events, and drug discontinuation due to adverse events were comparable across both groups. Conclusion: Imipenem/cilastatin/relebactam has a non-inferior safety and efficacy profile compared to peer antibiotics to treat severe bacterial infections (cUTIs, cIAIs, H.A.B.P., V.A.B.P.).

Keywords: bacterial pneumonia, complicated intra-abdominal infections, complicated urinary tract infection, Imipenem, cilastatin, relebactam

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1574 The Youth Employment Peculiarities in Post-Soviet Georgia

Authors: M. Lobzhanidze, N. Damenia

Abstract:

The article analyzes the current structural changes in the economy of Georgia, liberalization and integration processes of the economy. In accordance with this analysis, the peculiarities and the problems of youth employment are revealed. In the paper, the Georgian labor market and its contradictions are studied. Based on the analysis of materials, the socio-economic losses caused by the long-term and mass unemployment of young people are revealed, the objective and subjective circumstances of getting higher education are studied. The youth employment and unemployment rates are analyzed. Based on the research, the factors that increase unemployment are identified. According to the analysis of the youth employment, it has appeared that the unemployment share in the number of economically active population has increased in the younger age group. It demonstrates the high requirements of the labour market in terms of the quality of the workforce. Also, it is highlighted that young people are exposed to a highly paid job. The following research methods are applied in the presented paper: statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend, etc.) and qualitative research (in-depth interview), as well as analysis, induction and comparison methods. The article presents the data by the National Statistics Office of Georgia and the Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia, policy documents of the Parliament of Georgia, scientific papers by Georgian and foreign scientists, analytical reports, publications and EU research materials on similar issues. The work estimates the students and graduates employment problems existing in the state development strategy and priorities. The measures to overcome the challenges are defined. The article describes the mechanisms of state regulation of youth employment and the ways of improving this regulatory base. As for major findings, it should be highlighted that the main problems are: lack of experience and incompatibility of youth qualification with the requirements of the labor market. Accordingly, it is concluded that the unemployment rate of young people in Georgia is increasing.

Keywords: migration of youth, youth employment, migration management, youth employment and unemployment

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1573 Visualization as a Psychotherapeutic Mind-Body Intervention through Reducing Stress and Depression among Breast Cancer Patients in Kolkata

Authors: Prathama Guha Chaudhuri, Arunima Datta, Ashis Mukhopadhyay

Abstract:

Background: Visualization (guided imagery) is a set of techniques which induce relaxation and help people create positive mental images in order to reduce stress.It is relatively inexpensive and can even be practised by bed bound people. Studies have shown visualization to be an effective tool to improve cancer patients’ anxiety, depression and quality of life. The common images used with cancer patients in the developed world are those involving the individual’s body and its strengths. Since breast cancer patients in India are more family oriented and often their main concerns are the stigma of having cancer and subsequent isolation of their families, including their children, we figured that positive images involving acceptance and integration within family and society would be more effective for them. Method: Data was collected from 119 breast cancer patients on chemotherapy willing to undergo psychotherapy, with no history of past psychiatric illness. Their baseline stress, anxiety, depression and quality of life were assessed using validated tools. The participants were then randomly divided into three groups: a) those who received visualization therapy with standard imageries involving the body and its strengths (sVT), b) those who received visualization therapy using indigenous family oriented imageries (mVT) and c) a control group who received supportive therapy. There were six sessions spread over two months for each group. The psychological outcome variables were measured post intervention. Appropriate statistical analyses were done. Results:Both forms of visualization therapy were more effective than supportive therapy alone in reducing patients’ depression, anxiety and quality of life.Modified VT proved to be significantly more effective in improving patients’ anxiety and quality of life. Conclusion: Visualization is a valuable therapeutic option for reduction of psychological distress and improving quality of life of breast cancer patients.In order to be more effective, the images used need to be modified according to the sociocultural background and individual needs of the patients.

Keywords: breast cancer, visualization therapy, quality of life, anxiety, depression

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1572 Digital Architectural Practice as a Challenge for Digital Architectural Technology Elements in the Era of Digital Design

Authors: Ling Liyun

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In the field of contemporary architecture, complex forms of architectural works continue to emerge in the world, along with some new terminology emerged: digital architecture, parametric design, algorithm generation, building information modeling, CNC construction and so on. Architects gradually mastered the new skills of mathematical logic in the form of exploration, virtual simulation, and the entire design and coordination in the construction process. Digital construction technology has a greater degree in controlling construction, and ensure its accuracy, creating a series of new construction techniques. As a result, the use of digital technology is an improvement and expansion of the practice of digital architecture design revolution. We worked by reading and analyzing information about the digital architecture development process, a large number of cases, as well as architectural design and construction as a whole process. Thus current developments were introduced and discussed in our paper, such as architectural discourse, design theory, digital design models and techniques, material selecting, as well as artificial intelligence space design. Our paper also pays attention to the representative three cases of digital design and construction experiment at great length in detail to expound high-informatization, high-reliability intelligence, and high-technique in constructing a humane space to cope with the rapid development of urbanization. We concluded that the opportunities and challenges of the shift existed in architectural paradigms, such as the cooperation methods, theories, models, technologies and techniques which were currently employed in digital design research and digital praxis. We also find out that the innovative use of space can gradually change the way people learn, talk, and control information. The past two decades, digital technology radically breaks the technology constraints of industrial technical products, digests the publicity on a particular architectural style (era doctrine). People should not adapt to the machine, but in turn, it’s better to make the machine work for users.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, collaboration, digital architecture, digital design theory, material selection, space construction

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1571 Price Compensation Mechanism with Unmet Demand for Public-Private Partnership Projects

Authors: Zhuo Feng, Ying Gao

Abstract:

Public-private partnership (PPP), as an innovative way to provide infrastructures by the private sector, is being widely used throughout the world. Compared with the traditional mode, PPP emerges largely for merits of relieving public budget constraint and improving infrastructure supply efficiency by involving private funds. However, PPP projects are characterized by large scale, high investment, long payback period, and long concession period. These characteristics make PPP projects full of risks. One of the most important risks faced by the private sector is demand risk because many factors affect the real demand. If the real demand is far lower than the forecasting demand, the private sector will be got into big trouble because operating revenue is the main means for the private sector to recoup the investment and obtain profit. Therefore, it is important to study how the government compensates the private sector when the demand risk occurs in order to achieve Pareto-improvement. This research focuses on price compensation mechanism, an ex-post compensation mechanism, and analyzes, by mathematical modeling, the impact of price compensation mechanism on payoff of the private sector and consumer surplus for PPP toll road projects. This research first investigates whether or not price compensation mechanisms can obtain Pareto-improvement and, if so, then explores boundary conditions for this mechanism. The research results show that price compensation mechanism can realize Pareto-improvement under certain conditions. Especially, to make the price compensation mechanism accomplish Pareto-improvement, renegotiation costs of the government and the private sector should be lower than a certain threshold which is determined by marginal operating cost and distortionary cost of the tax. In addition, the compensation percentage should match with the price cut of the private investor when demand drops. This research aims to provide theoretical support for the government when determining compensation scope under the price compensation mechanism. Moreover, some policy implications can also be drawn from the analysis for better risk-sharing and sustainability of PPP projects.

Keywords: infrastructure, price compensation mechanism, public-private partnership, renegotiation

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1570 Urban Flood Risk Mapping–a Review

Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

Abstract:

Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

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1569 Study of Three-Dimensional Computed Tomography of Frontoethmoidal Cells Using International Frontal Sinus Anatomy Classification

Authors: Prabesh Karki, Shyam Thapa Chettri, Bajarang Prasad Sah, Manoj Bhattarai, Sudeep Mishra

Abstract:

Introduction: Frontal sinus is frequently described as the most difficult sinus to access surgically due to its proximity to the cribriform plate, orbit, and anterior ethmoid artery. Frontal sinus surgery requires a detailed understanding of the cellular structure and FSDP unique to each patient, making high-resolution CT scans an indispensable tool to assess the difficulty of planned sinus surgery. International Frontal Sinus Anatomy Classification (IFAC) was developed to provide a more precise nomenclature for cells in the frontal recess, classifying cells based on their anatomic origin. Objectives: To assess the proportion of frontal cell variants defined by IFAC, variation with respect to age and gender. Methods: 54 cases were enrolled after a detailed clinical history, thorough general and physical examinations, and CT a report ordered in a film. Assessment and tabulation of the presence of frontal cells according to the IFAC analyzed. The prevalence of each cell type was calculated, and data were entered in MS Excel and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Descriptive statistics and frequencies were defined for categorical and numerical variables. Frequency, percentage, the mean and standard deviation were calculated. Result: Among 54 patients, 30 (55.6%) were male and 24 (44.4%) were female. The patient enrolled ranged from 18 to 78 years. Majority33.3% (n=18) were in age group of >50 years.According to IFAC, Agger nasi cells (92.6%) were most common, whereas supraorbital ethmoidal cells were least common 16 (29.6%). Prevalence of other frontoethmoidal cells was SAC- 57.4%, SAFC- 38.9%, SBC- 74.1%, SBFC- 33.3%, FSC- 38.9% of 54 cases. Conclusion: IFAC is an international consensus document that describes an anatomically precise nomenclature for classifying frontoethmoidal cells' anatomy. This study has defined the prevalence, symmetry and reliability of frontoethmoidal cells as established by the IFAC system as in other parts of the world.

Keywords: frontal sinus, frontoethmoidal cells, international frontal sinus anatomy classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 100