Search results for: Volterra series

Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Naoki Suzuki, Kazumi Sakuramoto,

Abstract:

The North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) is a temperate tuna species distributed in the North Pacific which is of significant economic importance to the Pacific Island Nations and Territories. Despite its importance, the stock dynamics and ecological characteristics of albacore still, have gaps in knowledge. The stock-recruitment relationship of the North Pacific stock of albacore tuna was investigated for different density-dependent effects and a regime shift in the stock characteristics in response to changes in environmental and climatic conditions. Linear regression analysis for recruit per spawning biomass (RPS) and recruitment (R) against the female spawning stock biomass (SSB) were significant for the presence of different density-dependent effects and positive for a regime shift in the stock time series. Application of Deming regression to RPS against SSB with the assumption for the presence of observation and process errors in both the dependent and independent variables confirmed the results of simple regression. However, R against SSB results disagreed given variance level of < 3 and agreed with linear regression results given the assumption of variance ≥ 3. Assuming the presence of different density-dependent effects in the albacore tuna time series, environmental and climatic condition variables were compared with R, RPS, and SSB. The significant relationship of R, RPS and SSB were determined with the sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with SST being the principal variable exhibiting significantly similar trend with R and RPS. Recruitment is significantly influenced by the dynamics of the SSB as well as environmental conditions which demonstrates that the stock-recruitment relationship is multidimensional. Further investigation of the North Pacific albacore tuna age-class and structure is necessary for further support the results presented here. It is important for fishery managers and decision makers to be vigilant of regime shifts in environmental conditions relating to albacore tuna as it may possibly cause regime shifts in the albacore R and RPS which should be taken into account to effectively and sustainability formulate harvesting plans and management of the species in the North Pacific oceanic region.

Keywords: Albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, recruits per spawning biomass, sea surface temperature, pacific decadal oscillation, El Niño southern oscillation, density-dependent effects, regime shift

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Authors: Supakorn Tantisriyanurak, Hussaya Maneesuwan, Thanyalak Chaisuwan, Sujitra Wongkasemjit

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TUD-1 is a siliceous mesoporous material with a three-dimensional amorphous structure of random, interconnecting pores, large pore size, high surface area (400-1000 m2/g), hydrothermal stability, and tunable porosity. However, the significant disadvantage of the mesoporous silicates is few catalytic active sites. In this work, a series of bimetallic Fe and Ti incorporated into TUD-1 framework is successfully synthesized by sol–gel method. The synthesized Fe,Ti-TUD-1 is characterized by various techniques. To study the catalytic activity of Fe, Ti–TUD-1, phenol hydroxylation was selected as a model reaction. The amounts of residual phenol and oxidation products were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with UV-detector (HPLC-UV).

Keywords: iron, phenol hydroxylation, titanium, TUD-1

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Authors: Ian D. Walker

Abstract:

This paper describes the creation and teaching of an undergraduate course aimed at promoting critical thinking among the students in the course. The class, Robots in Business and Society, taught at Clemson University, is open to all undergraduate students of any discipline. It is taught as part of Clemson’s online class program and is structured to promote critical thinking via a series of interactive discussion boards and assignments. Critical thinking is measured via pre- and post-testing using a benchmark standardized test. The paper will detail the class organization, and describe and discuss the results and lessons learned with respect to improvement of student critical thinking from three offerings of the class.

Keywords: critical thinking, pedagogy, robotics, undergraduate teaching

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Authors: Elmo Thiago Lins Cöuras Ford, Valentina Alessandra Carvalho do Vale

Abstract:

It presents a heating system using low cost alternative solar collectors to promote the disinfection of water in low income communities that take water contaminated by bacteria. The system consists of two solar collectors, with total area of 4 m² and was built using PET bottles and cans of beer and soft drinks. Each collector is made up of 8 PVC tubes, connected in series and work in continuous flow. It will determine the flux the most appropriate to generate the temperature to promote the disinfection. Will be presented results of the efficiency and thermal loss of system and results of analysis of water after undergoing the process of heating.

Keywords: disinfection of water, solar heating system, poor communities, PVC

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Authors: Vaibhavi Birle

Abstract:

Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome is a rare clinic-radiological syndrome associated with acute changes in blood pressure during pregnancy. It is characterized symptomatically by headache, seizures, altered mental status, and visual blurring with radiological changes of white matter (vasogenic oedema) affecting the posterior occipital and parietal lobes of the brain. It is being increasingly recognized due to increased institutional deliveries and advances in imaging particularly magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In spite of the increasing diagnosis the prediction of PRES and patient factors affecting susceptibility is still not clear. Hence, we conducted the retrospective study to analyse the factors associated with PRES at our tertiary centre.

Keywords: pres syndrome, eclampsia, maternal outcome, fetal outcome

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Authors: Nuradeen Abdullahi Nadabo, Kasali Adewale Bello, Chindo Istifanus

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A series of ten bi functional mono-chloro-s-triazine vinyl sulphone reactive dyes were synthesized based on H-acid with varied substituents coded as (BRD). These dyes were characterized by IR spectroscopy. The results revealed an incorporation of various substituents. The visible absorption spectra of these dyes were examined in various solvents and results shows positive and negative salvatochromism as the solvent polarity; changes, melting point, percentage yield and molar extinction co-efficient of these dyes were also evaluated and the results obtained are within a reasonable range acceptable for commercial dyeing.

Keywords: bifunctional, characterization, reactive dyes, synthesis

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Authors: S. Mohammadzamani, B. Kordi

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Wireless electric field sensors are in high demand in the number of applications that requires measuring electric field such as investigations of high power systems and testing the high voltage apparatus. Passive wireless electric field sensors are most desired since they do not require a source of power and are interrogated wirelessly. A passive wireless electric field sensor has been designed and fabricated by our research group. In the wireless interrogation system of the sensor, a wireless radio frequency impulse generator needs to be employed. A compact wireless impulse generator composed of an integrated resonant switched oscillator (SWO) and a pulse-radiating antenna has been designed and fabricated in this research. The fundamental of Switched Oscillators was introduced by C.E.Baum. A Switched Oscillator consists of a low impedance transmission line charged by a DC source, through large impedance at desired frequencies and terminated to a high impedance antenna at one end and a fast closing switch at the other end. Once the line is charged, the switch will close and short-circuit the transmission line. Therefore, a fast transient wave will be generated and travels along the transmission line. Because of the mismatch between the antenna and the transmission line, only a part of fast transient wave will be radiated, and a portion of the fast-transient wave will reflect back. At the other end of the transmission line, there is a closed switch. Consequently, a second reflection with a reversed sign will propagate towards the antenna and the wave continues back and forth. hence, at the terminal of the antenna, there will be a series of positive and negative pulses with descending amplitude. In this research a single ended quarter wavelength Switched Oscillator has been designed and simulated at 800MHz. The simulation results show that the designed Switched Oscillator generates pulses with decreasing amplitude at the frequency of 800MHz with the maximum amplitude of 10V and bandwidth of about 10MHz at the antenna end. The switched oscillator has been fabricated using a 6cm long coaxial cable transmission line which is charged by a DC source and an 8cm monopole antenna as the pulse radiating antenna. A 90V gas discharge switch has been employed as the fast closing switch. The Switched oscillator sends a series of pulses with decreasing amplitude at the frequency of 790MHz with the maximum amplitude of 0.3V in the distance of 30 cm.

Keywords: electric field measurement, impulse radiating antenna, switched oscillator, wireless impulse generator

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Authors: D. J. Madhu Kumar, D. Jagadeesh Prasad, Sana Sheik, E. P. Rejeesh

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A series of Mannich bases derived from 1,2,4-triazole(3a-k and 4a-k) are synthesized by treating a Schiff base with various substituted primary/secondary amines and formaldehyde. The Schiff base is prepared by treating 3-methyl-4-amino-5-mercapto-1,2,4-triazole with 3,4-dimethoxybenzaldehyde in the presence of acid catalyst. The triazole is prepared by treating acetic acid with thiocarbohydrazide at reflux temperature. All the synthesized samples are characterised by FT-IR, 1H-NMR, and LC-MASS spectral studies and screened for their anti-oxidant activity.

Keywords: mannich bases, anti-oxidant activity, schiff base, triazole

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Authors: Byeong-Sam Kim, Jongmin Park

Abstract:

The present work is motivated by the industrial challenge to produce complex composite shapes cost-effectively. The model used an anisotropical thermoviscoelastic is analyzed by an implemented finite element solver. The stress relaxation can be constructed by Prony series for the nonlinear thermoviscoelastic model. The calculation of process induced internal stresses relaxation during the cooling stage of the manufacturing cycle was carried out by the spring back phenomena observed from the part containing a cylindrical segment. The finite element results obtained from the present formulation are compared with experimental data, and the results show good correlations.

Keywords: thermoviscoelastic, springback phenomena, FEM analysis, thermoplastic composite structures

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Authors: Prabhvir Singh Marway, Kai Lok Chan, Maria-Ruxandra Jinga, Rachel Bok Ying Lee, Matthew Bok Kit Lee, Krishan Nandapalan, Sze Yi Beh, Harry Carr, Christopher Kui

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We piloted a structured series of online workshops on the 3D segmentation of anatomical structures from CT scans. 33 participants were recruited from four UK universities for two-day workshops between 2020 and 2021. Open-source software (3D-Slicer) was used. We hypothesized that active participation via real-time screen-sharing and voice-communication via Discord would enable improved engagement and learning, despite national lockdowns. Written feedback indicated positive learning experiences, with subjective measures of anatomical understanding and software confidence improving.

Keywords: medical education, workshop, segmentation, anatomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Swee Kun Yap, Sachin Jangam, Suraj Vasudevan

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Experiential learning is dubbed as a highly effective way to enhance learning. Virtual reality (VR) is thus a helpful tool in providing a safe, memorable, and interactive learning environment. A class of 49 fluid mechanics students participated in starting up a pump, one of the most used equipment in the chemical industry, in VR. They experience the process in VR to familiarize themselves with the safety training and the standard operating procedure (SOP) in guided mode. Students subsequently observe their peers (in groups of 4 to 5) complete the same training. The training first brings each user through the personal protection equipment (PPE) selection, before guiding the user through a series of steps for pump startup. One of the most common feedback given by industries include the weakness of our graduates in pump design and operation. Traditional fluid mechanics is a highly theoretical module loaded with engineering equations, providing limited opportunity for visualization and operation. With VR pump, students can now learn to startup, shutdown, troubleshoot and observe the intricacies of a centrifugal pump in a safe and controlled environment, thereby bridging the gap between theory and practical application. Following the completion of the guided mode operation, students then individually complete the VR assessment for pump startup on the same day, which requires students to complete the same series of steps, without any cues given in VR to test their recollection rate. While most students miss out a few minor steps such as the checking of lubrication oil and the closing of minor drain valves before pump priming, all the students scored full marks in the PPE selection, and over 80% of the students were able to complete all the critical steps that are required to startup a pump safely. The students were subsequently tested for their recollection rate by means of an online quiz 3 weeks later, and it is again found that over 80% of the students were able to complete the critical steps in the correct order. In the survey conducted, students reported that the VR experience has been enjoyable and enriching, and 79.5% of the students voted to include VR as a positive supplementary exercise in addition to traditional teaching methods. One of the more notable feedback is the higher ease of noticing and learning from mistakes as an observer rather than as a VR participant. Thus, the cycling between being a VR participant and an observer has helped tremendously in their knowledge retention. This reinforces the positive impact VR has on learning.

Keywords: experiential learning, learning by doing, pump, unit operations, virtual reality

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Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

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The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, Cramer-Von-Mises test, nonparametric adherence tests

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Authors: Fayiz Saifurahman, Noori Fida Mohammad

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Afghanistan produces the highest rate of wheat, it is the first source of food, and food security in Afghanistan is dependent on the availability of wheat. Although Afghanistan is the main producer of wheat, on the other hand, Afghanistan is the largest importers of flour. The objective of this study is to assess the structure and dynamics of the wheat market in Afghanistan, can compute with foreign markets, and increase the level of production. To complete this, a broad series of secondary data was complied with, group discussions and interviews with farmers, agricultural and market experts. The research findings propose that; the government should adopt different policies to support the local market. The government should distribute the seed, support financially and technically to increase wheat production.

Keywords: Afghanistan, wheat, production , import

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Authors: Cunyu Zhang

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Based on Systemic Functional Linguistics, this paper aims to explore the complex aspectuality system of English. This study shows that the complex aspectuality is classified into complex viewpoint aspect which refers to the homogeneous or heterogeneous ways continuously viewing on the same situation by the speaker and complex situation aspect which is the combined configuration of the internal time schemata of situation. Through viewpoint shifting and repeating, the complex viewpoint aspect is formed in two combination ways. Complex situation aspect is combined by the way of hypotactic verbal complex and the limitation of participant and circumstance in a clause.

Keywords: aspect series, complex situation aspect, complex viewpoint aspect, systemic functional linguistics

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Authors: Arpit Gite

Abstract:

Purpose: We have evaluated the role of Total Neoadjuvant Therapy in patients with Locally Advanced Rectal cancer by giving Chemoradiotherapy followed by consolidation chemotherapy (CRT-CNCT) and, after that, the strategy of wait and watch. Methods: In this prospective case series, we evaluated the results of three locally advanced Rectal cancers, two cases Stage II (cT3N0) and one case Stage III ( cT4aN2). All three patients' growth was 4-6 cm from the anal verge. We have treated with Chemoradiotherapy to dose of 45Gy/25 Fractions to elective nodal regions (Inguinal node in anal canal Involvement)and Primary and mesorectum (Phase I) followed by 14.4Gy/8 Fractions to Primary and Mesorectum(Phase II) to a total dose of 59.4Gy/33 Fractions with concurrent chemotherapy Tab Capecitabine 825mg/m2 PO BD with Radiation therapy. After 6 weeks of completion of Chemoradiotherapy, advised six cycles of consolidative chemotherapy, CAPEOX regimen, Oxaliplatin 130mg/m2 on day 1 and Capecitabine 1000mg/m2 PO BD on days 1-14 repeated on a 21-day cycle for a total of six cycles. The primary endpoint is Disease-free survival (DFS); the secondary endpoint is adverse events related to chemoradiotherapy. Radiation toxicity is assessed by RTOG criteria, and chemotherapy toxicity is assessed by Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) Version 5.0. Results: After 6 weeks of completion of Chemoradiotherapy, we did PET-CT of all three patients; all three patients had a clinically complete response and we advised 6 cycles of consolidative chemotherapy. After completion of consolidative chemotherapy, again PET-CT and sigmoidoscopy, all three patients had complete response on PET-CT and no lesions on sigmoidoscopy and kept all three patients on wait and watch.2 patients had Grade 2 skin toxicities,1 patient had Grade 1 skin toxicity, .2 patients had Grade 2 lower GI toxicities, and 1 patient had Grade lower GI toxicity, both according to RTOG criteria. 3 patients had Grade 2 diarrhea due to capecitabine, and 1 patient had Grade 1 thrombocytopenia due to oxaliplatin assessed by Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) Version 5.0. Conclusion: Sphincter Preservation is possible with this regimen in those who don’t want to opt for surgery or in case of low-lying rectal cancer.

Keywords: locally advanced rectal cancer, sphincter preservation, chemoradiotherapy, consolidative chemotherapy

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Authors: Elmo Thiago Lins Cöuras Ford, Valentina Alessandra Carvalho do Vale

Abstract:

It presents a heating system using low cost alternative solar collectors to promote the disinfection of water in low income communities that take water contaminated by bacteria. The system consists of two solar collectors, with total area of 4 m² and was built using PET bottles and cans of beer and soft drinks. Each collector is made up of 8 PVC tubes, connected in series and work in continuous flow. It will determine the flux the most appropriate to generate the temperature to promote the disinfection. It will be presented results of the efficiency and thermal loss of system and results of analysis of water after undergoing the process of heating.

Keywords: Disinfection of water, solar heating system, poor communities, bioinformatics, biomedicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Maria V. Morozova, Zoya A. Mikhaylovskaya, Elena S. Buyanova, Sofia A. Petrova, Ksenia V. Arishina, Robert G. Zaharov

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The present work is devoted to the investigation of two series of doped bismuth molybdates: Bi₂₆-₂ₓMn₂ₓMo₁₀O₆₉-d and Bi₂₆Mo₁₀-₂yMn₂yO₆₉-d. Complex oxides were synthesized by conventional solid state technology and by co-precipitation method. The products were identified by powder diffraction. The powders and ceramic samples were examined by means of densitometry, laser diffraction, and electron microscopic methods. Porosity of the ceramic materials was estimated using the hydrostatic method. The electrical conductivity measurements were carried out using impedance spectroscopy method.

Keywords: bismuth molybdate, columnar structures, impedance spectroscopy, oxygen ionic conductors

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Authors: Jing-Fung Lin, Jer-Jia Sheu

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In this study, an approach has been developed for the noise reduction of a muffler. The transmission loss (TL) in the muffler is maximized by the use of a double-chamber muffler, and a baffle with a hole is inserted between chambers. Taguchi method is used to optimize the design for the acoustical performance of the muffler. The TL performance is evaluated by COMSOL software. The excellent parameter combination for the maximum TL is attained as high as 35.30 dB in a wide frequency range from 10 Hz to 1400 Hz. The influence sequence of four parameters on TL is determined by the range analysis. The effects of length and expansion ratio of the first chamber on TL performance for the excellent program were discussed. Comparisons of the TL results from different designs are made.

Keywords: acoustics, baffle, chamber, muffler, Taguchi method, transmission loss

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Authors: Heri Kuswanto, Philipp Sibbertsen, Irhamah

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A Wald type test to distinguish between long memory and ESTAR nonlinearity has been developed. The test uses a directed-Wald statistic to overcome the problem of restricted parameters under the alternative. The test is derived from a model specification i.e. allows the transition parameter to appear as a nuisance parameter in the transition function. A simulation study has been conducted and it indicates that the approach leads a test with good size and power properties to distinguish between stationary long memory and ESTAR.

Keywords: directed-Wald test, ESTAR, long memory, distinguish

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Authors: Shivani Khare

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It is of paramount concern for economists to uncover the factors that determine human capital development, considered now to be one of the major factors behind economic growth and development. However, no human action is isolated but rather works within the set-up of the society. In recent years, a new field of investigation has come up that analyses the relationships that exist between social and human capital. Along these lines, this paper explores the effect of social capital on the indicators of human capital development – life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, and per capita income. The applied part of the analysis is performed using a panel data model for OECD countries and by using a series of chronological periods that within the 2005–2020 time frame.

Keywords: social capital, human capital development, trust, social networks, socioeconomics

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Authors: Aena Iqbal

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The lack of access to maternal and reproductive health in Pakistan poses a great threat to global public health. Obstetric issues, including vesicovaginal fistulas (VVF), are the most common in South Asian countries, leaving women in a more vulnerable state. Koohi Goth Women’s Hospital offers free VVF operations, which draws in women from all over Pakistan. Although reproductive health is being handled, mental health is often neglected in these scenarios. Using a series of questions inspired by the Warwick Edinburgh Model, this paper builds on the results from interviewing women who have received vesicovaginal fistula repair surgery on their mental health, a taboo topic in Pakistan.

Keywords: obstetrics, VVF, Pakistan, reproductive health

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Authors: M. Pramila Devi, N. V. N. Indra Kiran

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Control charts, predominantly in the form of X-bar chart, are important tools in statistical process control (SPC). They are useful in determining whether a process is behaving as intended or there are some unnatural causes of variation. A process is out of control if a point falls outside the control limits or a series of point’s exhibit an unnatural pattern. In this paper, a study is carried out on four training algorithms for CCPs recognition. For those algorithms optimal structure is identified and then they are studied for type I and type II errors for generalization without early stopping and with early stopping and the best one is proposed.

Keywords: control chart pattern recognition, neural network, backpropagation, generalization, early stopping

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Authors: Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Ángeles Godoy-Durán, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Laura Piedra-Muñoz

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Eco-efficiency is receiving ever-increasing interest as an indicator of sustainability, as it links environmental and economic performances in productive activities. In agriculture, these indicators and their determinants prove relevant due to the close relationships in this activity between the use of natural resources, which is generally limited, and the provision of basic goods to society. In this context, various analyses have focused on eco-efficiency by considering individual family farms as the basic production unit. However, not only must the measure of efficiency be taken into account, but also the existence of a series of factors which constitute socio-economic, political-institutional, and environmental determinants. Said factors have been studied to a lesser extent in the literature. The present work analyzes eco-efficiency at a micro level, focusing on small-scale family farms as the main decision-making units in horticulture in southeast Spain, a sector which represents about 30% of the fresh vegetables produced in the country and about 20% of those consumed in Europe. The objectives of this study are a) to obtain a series of eco-efficiency indicators by estimating several pressure ratios and economic value added in farming, b) to analyze the influence of specific social, economic and environmental variables on the aforementioned eco-efficiency indicators. The present work applies the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which calculates different combinations of environmental pressures (water usage, phytosanitary contamination, waste management, etc.) and aggregate economic value. In a second stage, an analysis is conducted on the influence of the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of family farms on the eco-efficiency indicators, as endogeneous variables, through the use of truncated regression and bootstrapping techniques, following Simar-Wilson methodology. The results reveal considerable inefficiency in aspects such as waste management, while there is relatively little inefficiency in water usage and nitrogen balance. On the other hand, characteristics, such as product specialization, the adoption of quality certifications and belonging to a cooperative do have a positive impact on eco-efficiency. These results are deemed to be of interest to agri-food systems structured on small-scale producers, and they may prove useful to policy-makers as regards managing public environmental programs in agriculture.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, eco-efficiency, family farms, horticulture, socioeconomic features

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Authors: Vilma Deltuvaitė

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Comparisons of financial development across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic development. For this reason this study analyzes the implications of financial system’s development on country’s economic development. The aim of the article: to analyze the impact of financial system’s development on economic development. The following research methods were used: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of statistical data, time series model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model). The empirical results suggest about positive short and long term effect of stock market development on GDP per capita.

Keywords: banking sector, economic development, financial system’s development, stock market, private bond market

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Authors: Amira Zouaoui, Hamed Belloumi, Ferid Kourda

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This paper presents the analysis and design of a DC–AC resonant converter applied to induction heating. The proposed topology based on the series-parallel half-bridge resonant inverter is described. It can operate with Zero-Voltage Switching (ZVS). At the resonant frequency, the secondary current is amplified over the heating coil with small switching angle, which keeps the reactive power low and permits heating with small current through the resonant inductor and the transformer. The operation and control principle of the proposed high frequency inverter is described and verified through simulated and experimental results.

Keywords: induction heating, inverter, high frequency, resonant

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Michael Heuer, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Alexander Rain, Marc-Michael Meinecke

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Vulnerable road users, e.g. pedestrians, have a high impact on fatal accident numbers. To reduce these statistics, car manufactures are intensively developing suitable safety systems. Hereby, fast and reliable environment recognition is a major challenge. In this paper we describe a tracking approach that is only based on a 24 GHz radar sensor. While common radar signal processing loses much information, we make use of a track-before-detect filter to incorporate raw measurements. It is explained how the Range-Doppler spectrum can help to indicated pedestrians and stabilize tracking even in occultation scenarios compared to sensors in series.

Keywords: radar, pedestrian detection, active safety, sensor

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Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, B. Mohammadi-Haji

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Stone columns have been widely employed to improve the load-settlement characteristics of soft soils. The results of two small scale displacement control loading tests on stone columns were used in order to validate numerical finite element simulations. Additionally, a series of numerical calculations of static loading have been performed on strengthened raft footing to investigate the effects of using stone columns on bearing capacity of footings. The bearing capacity of single and group of stone columns under static loading compares with unimproved ground.

Keywords: circular raft footing, numerical analysis, validation, vertically encased stone column

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Authors: Samuel Munaf, Kevin Swingler, Franz Brülisauer, Anthony O’Hare, George Gunn, Aaron Reeves

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Background: Avian influenza, more commonly known as Bird flu, is a viral zoonotic respiratory disease stemming from various species of poultry, including pets and migratory birds. Researchers have purported that the accessibility of health information online, in addition to the low-cost data collection methods the internet provides, has revolutionized the methods in which epidemiological and disease surveillance data is utilized. This paper examines the feasibility of using internet data sources, such as Twitter and livestock forums, for the early detection of the avian flu outbreak, through the use of text mining algorithms and social network analysis. Methods: Social media mining was conducted on Twitter between the period of 01/01/2021 to 31/12/2021 via the Twitter API in Python. The results were filtered firstly by hashtags (#avianflu, #birdflu), word occurrences (avian flu, bird flu, H5N1), and then refined further by location to include only those results from within the UK. Analysis was conducted on this text in a time-series manner to determine keyword frequencies and topic modeling to uncover insights in the text prior to a confirmed outbreak. Further analysis was performed by examining clinical signs (e.g., swollen head, blue comb, dullness) within the time series prior to the confirmed avian flu outbreak by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). Results: The increased search results in Google and avian flu-related tweets showed a correlation in time with the confirmed cases. Topic modeling uncovered clusters of word occurrences relating to livestock biosecurity, disposal of dead birds, and prevention measures. Conclusions: Text mining social media data can prove to be useful in relation to analysing discussed topics for epidemiological surveillance purposes, especially given the lack of applied research in the veterinary domain. The small sample size of tweets for certain weekly time periods makes it difficult to provide statistically plausible results, in addition to a great amount of textual noise in the data.

Keywords: veterinary epidemiology, disease surveillance, infodemiology, infoveillance, avian influenza, social media

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Authors: Van Tran Thi Thuy, Dukjoon Kim

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A series of pH- and thermosensitive poly(N-isopropyl acrylamide-co-acrylic acid) were synthesized by radical polymerization and grafted on poly succinimide backbones. The poly succinimide derivatives synthesized were coated on iron oxide magnetic nanoparticles for potential applications in drug delivery systems with theranostic and molecular imaging. The structure of polymer shell was confirmed by FT-IR, H-NMR spectroscopies. Its thermal behavior was tested by UV-Vis spectroscopy. The particle size and its distribution are measured by dynamic light scattering (DLS) and transmission electron microscope (TEM). The mean diameter of the core-shell structure is from 20 to 80 nm.

Keywords: magnetic, nano, PNIPAM, polysuccinimide

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