Search results for: risk of bleeding

Authors: K. Amanzoui, A. Erragh, M. Elharit, A. Afif, K. Elfakhr, S. Kalouch, A. Chlilek

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Orthopedic surgery is a provider of pre and postoperative bleeding; patients are exposed to several risks, and different measures are proposed to reduce bleeding during surgery, called the transfusion-sparing method, including tranexamic acid, which has shown its effectiveness in numerous studies. A prospective analytical study in 50 children was carried out in the orthopedic traumatology operating room of the EL HAROUCHI hospital of the CHU IBN ROCHD in Casablanca over a period of six months (April to October 2022). Two groups were randomized: one receiving tranexamic acid (Group A) and a non-receiving control group (Group B). The average age was 10.3 years, of which 58.8% were female. The first type of surgery was thoracolumbar scoliosis (52%). The average preoperative hemoglobin was 12.28 g/dl in group A, against 12.67 g/dl in the control group. There was no significant difference between the two groups (p=0.148). Mean intraoperative bleeding was 396.29 ml in group A versus 412 ml in the control group. No significant difference was observed for this parameter (p=0.632). The average hemoglobin level in the immediate postoperative period in our patients is 10.2 g/dl. In group A, it was 10.95 g/dl versus 10.93 g/dl in group B. At H24 postoperative, the mean hemoglobin value was 10.29 g/dl in group A against 9.5 g/dl in group B. For group A, the blood loss recorded during the first 24 hours was 209.43 ml, against 372 ml in group B, with a significant difference between the two groups (p=0.001). There is no statistically significant difference between the 2 groups in terms of the use of fillers, ephedrine or intraoperative transfusion. While for postoperative transfusion, we note the existence of a statistically significant difference between group A and group B. It is suggested that the use of tranexamic acid is an effective, simple, and low-cost way to limit postoperative blood loss and the need for transfusion.

Keywords: tranexamic acid, blood loss, orthopedic surgery, children

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Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

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Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Bea Carmel H. Casiding, Charmaine A. Guy, Funny Jovis P. Malasan, Katrina Chelsea B. Manlutac, Danielle Ann N. Novilla, Marianne R. Oliveros, Magnolia C. Sibulo

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Moon jellyfish, Aurelia aurita, has become a popular research organism for diverse studies. Recent studies have verified the prevention of blood clotting properties of the moon jellyfish tentacle extract through in vitro methods. The purpose of this study was to validate the blood clotting ability of A. aurita tentacle extract using in vivo method of experimentation. The tentacles of A. aurita jellyfish were excised and filtered then centrifuged at 3000xg for 10 minutes. The crude nematocyst extract was suspended in 1:6 ratios with phosphate buffer solution and sonicated for three periods of 20 seconds each at 50 Hz. Protein concentration of the extract was determined using Bradford Assay. Bovine serum albumin was the standard solution used with the following concentrations: 35.0, 70.0, 105.0, 140.0, 175.0, 210.0, 245.0, and 280.0 µg/mL. The absorbance was read at 595 nm. Toxicity testing from OECD guidelines was adapted. The extract suspended in phosphate-buffered saline solution was arbitrarily set into three doses (0.1mg/kg, 0.3mg/kg, 0.5mg/kg) and were administered daily for five days to the experimental groups of five male Sprague-Dawley rats (one dose per group). Before and after the administration period, bleeding time and clotting time tests were performed. The One-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to analyze the difference of before and after bleeding time and clotting time from the three treatment groups, time, positive and negative control groups. The average protein concentration of the sonicated crude tentacle extract was 206.5 µg/mL. The highest dose administered (0.5mg/kg) produced significant increase in the time for both bleeding and clotting tests. However, the preceding lower dose (0.3mg/kg) only was significantly effective for clotting time test. The protein contained in the tentacle extract with a concentration of 206.5 mcg/mL and dose of 0.3 mg/kg and 0.5 mg/kg of A. aurita elicited anticoagulating activity.

Keywords: anticoagulant, bleeding time test, clotting time test, moon jellyfish

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Authors: Baobao Li

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Operational risk covers all operations of commercial banks and has a close relationship with the bank’s internal control. But in the commercial banks' management practice, internal control is always separated from the operational risk measurement. With the increasing of operational risk events in recent years, operational risk is paid more and more attention by regulators and banks’ managements. The paper first discussed the relationship between internal control and operational risk management and used CVaR-POT model to measure operational risk, and then put forward a modified measurement method (to use operational risk assessment results to modify the measurement results of the CVaR-POT model). The paper also analyzed the necessity and rationality of this method. The method takes into consideration the influence of internal control, improves the accuracy and effectiveness of operational risk measurement and save the economic capital for commercial banks, avoiding the drawbacks of using some mainstream models one-sidedly.

Keywords: commercial banks, internal control, operational risk, risk measurement

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Authors: Luna Degife, Desalegn Belay, Yoseph Worku, Tigist Tesfaye, Assefa Tufa, Abyot Bekele, Zegeye Hailemariam, Abay Hagos

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Half of the world’s population is at risk of Dengue Fever (DF), a highly under-recognized and underreported mosquito-borne viral disease with high prevalence in the tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, an estimated 50 to 200 million cases and 20, 000 DF deaths occur annually as per the world health organization report. In Ethiopia, the first outbreak occurred in 2013 in Diredawa administration city. Afterward, three outbreaks have been reported from the eastern part of the country. We received a report of the fifth DF outbreak for Ethiopia and the second for Diredawa city on October 4, 2015. We conducted the investigation to confirm the outbreak, identify the risk factors for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease and implement control measures. We conducted un- matched case-control study and defined a suspected DF case as any person with fever of 2-7 days and 2 or more of the following: a headache, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, or bleeding from any part of the body. Controls were residents of Diredawa city without DF symptoms. We interviewed 70 Cases and 140 controls from all health facilities in Diredawa city from October 7 to 15; 2015. Epi Info version 7.1.5.0 was used to analyze the data and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors for DF. Sixty-nine blood samples were collected for Laboratory confirmation.The mean age for cases was 23.7±9.5 standard deviation (SD) and for controls 31.2±13 SD. Close contact with DF patient (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.36, 95% confidence interval(CI): 2.75-10.44), nonuse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.06-7.08) and availability of stagnant water in the village (AOR=3.61, 95% CI:1.31-9.93) were independent risk factors associated with higher rates of the disease. Forty-two samples were tested positive. Endemicity of DF is becoming a concern for Diredawa city after the first outbreak. Therefore, effective vector control activities need to be part of long-term preventive measures.

Keywords: dengue fever, Diredawa, outbreak, risk factors, second

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

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Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: Francis Edum-Fotwe, Tony Thorpe, Charles Afetornu

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Risk perception informs the outcome of how issues are responded to in either solving or overcoming a problem or improving a situation. Risk perception is established to be affected by some key factors reflecting in the varying ways in which work is done as well as the level of efficiency achieved. These factors potentially would influence risk perception to different extents. Such that if these factors are said to determine risk perception, how does a change in any affect risk perception. Since the ability to address risk is influenced by risk perception, establishing and developing awareness of that perception should enable construction professionals to make viable decisions. Any act to improve the construction industry cannot be overemphasised, considering its contribution to national development. A survey questionnaire was conducted in Ghana to elicit data that measures the risk perception and the essential factors as well as the necessary demographics of the respondents, who are construction professionals. This study finds out the sensitivity of the critical factors of risk perception. It uses the Relative Importance Index analysis tool to investigate the differential effect of these essential factors on risk perception, such that a slight change in a factor makes a significant change in risk perception, having established that it is influenced by essential factors. The findings can lead to policy formation for employers on the prioritisation factors to undertake to improve the risk perception of employees. Other areas in which this study can be useful in team formation for sensitive and complex projects where efficient risk management is critical.

Keywords: construction industry, risk, risk management, risk perception

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Authors: Asaiel Mubark Al Hadi

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Background: A frequent anorectal condition known as hemorrhoids, sometimes known as piles, is characterized by a weakening of the anal cushion and the supporting tissue as well as spasms of the internal sphincter. Hemorrhoids are most frequently identified by painless bright red bleeding, prolapse, annoying grape-like tissue prolapse, itching, or a combination of symptoms. digital rectal examination (DRE) and anoscope are used to diagnose it. Constipation, a low-fiber diet, a high body- mass index (BMI), pregnancy, and a reduced physical activity are among the factors that are typically thought to increase the risk of hemorrhoids. Golighers is the most commonly used hemorrhoid classification scheme It is 4 degrees, which determines the degree of the event. The purpose of this study is to assess knowledge and awareness level of the causes and stages of Hemorrhoids in the public of Saudi Arabia. Method: This cross-sectional study was conducted in the Saudi Arabia between Oct 2022- Dec 2022. The study group included at least 384 aged above 18 years. The outcomes of this study were analyzed using the SPSS program using a pre-tested questionnaire. Results: The study included 1410 participants, 69.9% of them were females and 30.1% were males. 53.7% of participants aged 20- 30 years old. 17% of participants had hemorrhoids and 42% had a relative who had hemorrhoids. 42.8% of participants could identify stage 1 of hemorrhoids correctly, 44.7% identified stage 2 correctly, 46.7% identified stage 3 correctly and 58.1% identified stage 4 correctly. Only 28.9% of participants had high level of knowledge about hemorrhoids, 62.7% had moderate knowledge and 8.4% had low knowledge. Conclusion: In conclusion, Saudi general population has poor knowledge of hemorrhoids, their causes and their management approach. There was a significant association between knowledge scores of hemorrhoids with age, gender, residence area and employment.

Keywords: hemorrhoids, external hemorrhoid, internal hemorrhoid, anal fissure, hemorrhoid stages, prolapse, rectal bleeding

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Authors: Anchal Gupta

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Amid the escalating digitalization and deployment of cross-border technological solutions, a significant portion of the industry and regulatory bodies have begun to pose queries concerning the formulation, computation, and contemplation of concentration risk. In the financial sector, well-established parameters exist for gauging the concentration of a portfolio and similar elements. However, a unified framework appears to be absent, which could guide industry and regulators pertaining to non-financial concentration risk. This paper introduces a framework, constructed on the foundation of multiple regulations where regulators are advocating for licensed corporations to evaluate their concentration risk. The lacuna lies in the fact that, while regulators delineate what constitutes concentration risk, unlike other domains, no guidelines are provided that could assist firms. This frequently results in ambiguity and individual corporate interpretation, which, from a risk management standpoint, is less than ideal.

Keywords: concentration risk, non-financial risk, government regulation, financial regulation, non-market risk, MAS, DORA, EDSP, SFC

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Authors: Ragy Raafat Gaber Attaalla

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For cardiovascular illness, oral P2Y12 inhibitors including clopidogrel, prasugrel, and ticagrelor are frequently recommended. Each of these medications has advantages and disadvantages. In the absence of genotyping, it has been demonstrated that the stronger platelet aggregation inhibitors prasugrel and ticagrelor are superior than clopidogrel at preventing significant adverse cardiovascular events following an acute coronary syndrome and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Both, nevertheless, come with a higher risk of bleeding unrelated to a coronary artery bypass. As a prodrug, clopidogrel needs to be bioactivated, principally by the CYP2C19 enzyme. A CYP2C19 no function allele and diminished or absent CYP2C19 enzyme activity are present in about 30% of people. The reduced exposure to the active metabolite of clopidogrel and reduced inhibition of platelet aggregation among clopidogrel-treated carriers of a CYP2C19 no function allele likely contributed to the reduced efficacy of clopidogrel in clinical trials. Clopidogrel's pharmacogenetic results are strongest when used in conjunction with PCI, but evidence for other indications is growing. One of the most typical examples of clinical pharmacogenetic application is CYP2C19 genotype-guided antiplatelet medication following PCI. Guidance is available from expert consensus groups and regulatory bodies to assist with incorporating genetic information into P2Y12 inhibitor prescribing decisions. Here, we examine the data supporting genotype-guided P2Y12 inhibitor selection's effects on clopidogrel response and outcomes and discuss tips for pharmacogenetic implementation. We also discuss procedures for using genotype data to choose P2Y12 inhibitor therapies as well as any unmet research needs. Finally, choosing a P2Y12 inhibitor medication that optimally balances the atherothrombotic and bleeding risks may be influenced by both clinical and genetic factors.

Keywords: inhibitors, cardiovascular events, coronary intervention, pharmacogenetic implementation

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Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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Authors: Iliana Georganta, Clare Deehan, Marysia Thomson, Miriam McDonald, Kerrie McNulty, Anna Strachan, Elizabeth Anderson, Alyaa Mostafa

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Context: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing hysterectomy versus endometrial ablation and resection in the management of heavy menstrual bleeding. Objective: To evaluate the clinical efficacy, satisfaction rates and adverse events of hysterectomy compared to more minimally invasive techniques in the treatment of HMB. Evidence Acquisition: A literature search was performed for all RCTs and quasi-RCTs comparing hysterectomy with either endometrial ablation endometrial resection of both. The search had no language restrictions and was last updated in June 2020 using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Clinical Trials, PubMed, Google Scholar, PsycINFO, Clinicaltrials.gov and Clinical trials. EU. In addition, a manual search of the abstract databases of the European Haemophilia Conference on women's health was performed and further studies were identified from references of acquired papers. The primary outcomes were patient-reported and objective reduction in heavy menstrual bleeding up to 2 years and after 2 years. Secondary outcomes included satisfaction rates, pain, adverse events short and long term, quality of life and sexual function, further surgery, duration of surgery and hospital stay and time to return to work and normal activities. Data were analysed using RevMan software. Evidence synthesis: 12 studies and a total of 2028 women were included (hysterectomy: n = 977 women vs endometrial ablation or resection: n = 1051 women). Hysterectomy was compared with endometrial ablation only in five studies (Lin, Dickersin, Sesti, Jain, Cooper) and endometrial resection only in five studies (Gannon, Schulpher, O’Connor, Crosignani, Zupi) and a mixture of the Ablation and Resection in two studies (Elmantwe, Pinion). Of the 1² studies, 10 reported women’s perception of bleeding symptoms as improved. Meta-analysis showed that women in the hysterectomy group were more likely to show improvement in bleeding symptoms when compared with endometrial ablation or resection up to 2-year follow-up (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.79, I² = 95%). Objective outcomes of improvement in bleeding also favored hysterectomy. Patient satisfaction was higher after hysterectomy within the 2 years follow-up (RR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.86 to 0.94, I²:58%), however, there was no significant difference between the two groups at more than 2 years follow up. Sepsis (RR: 0.03, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.56; 1 study), wound infection (RR: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.28, I²: 0%, 3 studies) and Urinary tract infection (UTI) (RR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.10 to 0.42, I²: 0%, 4 studies) all favoured hysteroscopic techniques. Fluid overload (RR: 7.80, 95% CI: 2.16 to 28.16, I² :0%, 4 studies) and perforation (RR: 5.42, 95% CI: 1.25 to 23.45, I²: 0%, 4 studies) however favoured hysterectomy in the short term. Conclusions: This meta-analysis has demonstrated that endometrial ablation and endometrial resection are both viable options when compared with hysterectomy for the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding. Hysteroscopic procedures had better outcomes in the short term with fewer adverse events including wound infection, UTI and sepsis. The hysterectomy performed better when measuring more long-term impacts such as recurrence of symptoms, overall satisfaction at two years and the need for further treatment or surgery.

Keywords: menorrhagia, hysterectomy, ablation, resection

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk

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Authors: Waseem Al-Talalwah

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The superior vesical artery usually arises directly from the anterior division of the internal iliac artery. It may arise from the umbilical artery as three or four branches to supply the upper and middle parts of bladder. Current study focuses on the different origins of the superior vesical artery to provide a sufficient data for surgeons to disease iatrogenic fault. The superior vesical artery arises directly from the anterior division of the internal iliac artery in 24.5% whereas it arises indirectly as from umbilical artery in 83.7%. Further, it may arise from any branch of the anterior division as from the utrine and obturator arteries in 6.1% and in 6.3% respectively. It also shares the origin of the internal pudendal and inferior glutyeal artery as it arises from the gluteopudendal trunk in 4.1%. The superior vesical artery arises as a single, double, triple and quadruple in 69.4%, 20.4%, 8.2% and 2% respectively. In case of cystectomy for bladder cancer, surgeons have to be aware of the origin variability of superior vesical artery to prevent post-surgical complication such as intra-pelvic bleeding. Also, the as intra-pelvic bleeding has to be expected in case of hysterectomy therefore a great caution of the vesical branches arising from uterine artery has to be considered. In case of aneurysm resection of inferior gluteal artery arising from the gluteopudendal trunk, the surgeons have to be careful of the vascular supply of urinary bladder coming from above and below this common trunk as from superior and inferior vesical arteries respectively. Therefore, present study increases the awareness of clinical significance of superior vesical artery origin for surgeons to minimise the iatroginc errors.

Keywords: superior vesical artery, anterior division, internal iliac, internal pudendal, inferior glutyeal, intra-pelvic bleeding, hysterectomy, cystectomy

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Authors: Shumaila Zeb

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The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.

Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks

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Authors: Aysegul Alyamac, Sukru Gulec

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Ankaferd Blood Stopper (ABS) is a plant extract used to stop bleeding caused by injuries and surgical interventions. ABS also involved in wound healing of intestinal mucosal damage due to oxidative stress and inflammation. Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a common chronic disorder of the gastrointestinal tract that causes abdominal pain, diarrhea, and gastrointestinal bleeding, and increases the risk of colon cancer. Inflammation is an essential factor in the development of IBD. The various studies have been performed about the physiological effects of ABS; however, ABS dependent mechanism on colonic inflammation has not been elucidated. Thus, the protective effect of ABS on colonic inflammation was investigated in this study. The Caco-2 and RAW 264.7 murine macrophage cells were used as a model of in vitro colonic inflammation. RAW 264.7 cells were treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for 12 hours to induce the inflammation, and a conditional medium was obtained. Caco-2 cells were treated with 15 µl/ml ABS for 4 hours, then incubated with conditional medium and the cells also were incubated with 15 µl/ml ABS and conditional medium together for 4 hours. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) protein levels were targeted in testing inflammatory condition and its level was significantly increased (25 fold, p<0.001) compared to the control group by using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) method. The COX-2 mRNA level was used as a marker gene to show the possible anti-inflammatory effect of ABS in Caco-2 cells. RAW cells-derived conditional medium significantly (3.3 fold, p<0.001) induced cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) mRNA levels in Caco-2 cells. The pretreatment of Caco-2 cells caused a significant decrease (3.3 fold, p<0.001) in COX-2 mRNA levels relative to conditional medium given group. Furthermore, COX-2 mRNA level was significantly reduced (4,7 fold, p<0.001) in ABS and conditional medium treated group. These results suggest that ABS might have an anti-inflammatory effect in vitro.

Keywords: Ankaferd blood stopper, CaCo-2, colonic inflammation, RAW 264.7

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Nisa Mohan

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Adverse drug event (ADE) related hospital admissions are common among older people. The first step in prevention is accurately estimating the prevalence of ADE admissions. Clinical coding is an efficient method to estimate the prevalence of ADE admissions. The objective of the study is to estimate the rate of under-coding of ADE admissions in older people in New Zealand and to explore how clinical coders decide whether or not to code an admission as an ADE. There has not been any research in New Zealand to explore these areas. This study is done using a mixed-methods approach. Two common and serious ADEs in older people, namely bleeding and hypoglycaemia were selected for the study. In study 1, eight hundred medical records of people aged 65 years and above who are admitted to hospital due to bleeding and hypoglycemia during the years 2015 – 2016 were selected for quantitative retrospective medical records review. This selection was made to estimate the proportion of ADE-related bleeding and hypoglycemia admissions that are not coded as ADEs. These files were reviewed and recorded as to whether the admission was caused by an ADE. The hospital discharge data were reviewed to check whether all the ADE admissions identified in the records review were coded as ADEs, and the proportion of under-coding of ADE admissions was estimated. In study 2, thirteen clinical coders were selected to conduct qualitative semi-structured interviews using a general inductive approach. Participants were selected purposively based on their experience in clinical coding. Interview questions were designed in a way to investigate the reasons for the under-coding of ADE admissions. The records review study showed that 35% (Cl 28% - 44%) of the ADE-related bleeding admissions and 22% of the ADE-related hypoglycemia admissions were not coded as ADEs. Although the quality of clinical coding is high across New Zealand, a substantial proportion of ADE admissions were under-coded. This shows that clinical coding might under-estimate the actual prevalence of ADE related hospital admissions in New Zealand. The interviews with the clinical coders added that lack of time for searching for information to confirm an ADE admission, inadequate communication with clinicians, along with coders’ belief that an ADE is a small thing might be the potential reasons for the under-coding of the ADE admissions. This study urges the coding policymakers, auditors, and trainers to engage with the unconscious cognitive biases and short-cuts of the clinical coders. These results highlight that further work is needed on interventions to improve the clinical coding of ADE admissions, such as providing education to coders about the importance of ADEs, education to clinicians about the importance of clear and confirmed medical records entries, availing pharmacist service to improve the detection and clear documentation of ADE admissions and including a mandatory field in the discharge summary about external causes of diseases.

Keywords: adverse drug events, bleeding, clinical coders, clinical coding, hypoglycemia

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Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

Abstract:

The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: job safety, SME, work risk, risk management

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

Abstract:

Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Rebecca Pryce, Nijole Bernaitis, Andrew K. Davey, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie

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Background: Warfarin is an oral anticoagulant widely used in the prevention of strokes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and in the treatment and prevention of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Regular monitoring of Internationalised Normalised Ratio (INR) is required to ensure therapeutic benefit with time in therapeutic range (TTR) used to measure warfarin control. A number of factors influence TTR including diet, concurrent illness, and drug interactions. Extensive literature exists regarding the effect of conventional medicines on warfarin control, but documented interactions relating to complementary medicines are limited. It has been postulated that fish oil and krill oil supplementation may affect warfarin due to their association with bleeding events. However, to date little is known as to whether fish and krill oil significantly alter the incidence of bleeding with warfarin or impact on warfarin control. Aim:To assess the influence of fish oil and krill oil supplementation on warfarin control in AF and DVT patients by determining the influence of these supplements on TTR and bleeding events. Methods:A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted utilising patient information from a large private pathology practice in Queensland. AF and DVT patients receiving warfarin management by the pathology practice were identified and their TTR calculated using the Rosendaal method. Concurrent medications were analysed and patients taking no other interacting medicines were identified and divided according to users of fish oil and krill oil supplements and those taking no supplements. Study variables included TTR and the incidence of bleeding with exclusion criteria being less than 30 days of treatment with warfarin. Subject characteristics were reported as the mean and standard deviation for continuous data and number and percentages for nominal or categorical data. Data was analysed using GraphPad InStat Version 3 with a p value of <0.05 considered to be statistically significant. Results:Of the 2081 patients assessed for inclusion into this study, a total of 573 warfarin users met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 416 (72.6%) patients were AF patients and 157 (27.4%) DVT patients and overall there were 316 (55.1%) male and 257 (44.9%) female patients. 145 patients were included in the fish oil/krill oil group (supplement) and 428 were included in the control group. The mean TTR of supplement users was 86.9% and for the control group 84.7% with no significant difference between these groups. Control patients experienced 1.6 times the number of minor bleeds per person compared to supplement patients and 1.2 times the number of major bleeds per person. However, this was not statistically significant nor was the comparison between thrombotic events. Conclusion: No significant difference was found between supplement and control patients in terms of mean TTR, the number of bleeds and thrombotic events. Fish oil and krill oil supplements when used concurrently with warfarin do not significantly affect warfarin control as measured by TTR and bleeding incidence.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, deep vein thormbosis, fish oil, krill oil, warfarin

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Authors: Alexander Marx

Abstract:

Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.

Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management

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Authors: Harshadkumar Rajgor, Jeff Butterworth

Abstract:

Background: Barretts oesophagus increases the risk of developing oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Over the last 40 years, there has been a 6 fold increase in the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma in the western world and the incidence rates are increasing at a greater rate than cancers of the colon, breast and lung. Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is a relatively new technique being used by 2 centres in the greater midlands cancer network. EMR can be used for curative or staging purposes, for high-grade dysplasia’s and T1 tumours of the oesophagus. EMR is also suitable for those who are deemed high risk for oesophagectomy. EMR has a recurrence rate of 21% according to the Wiesbaden data. Method: A retrospective study of prospectively collected data was carried out involving 24 patients who had EMR for curative or staging purposes. Complications of residual or recurrent disease following EMR that required further treatment were investigated. Results: In 54% of cases residual or recurrent disease was suspected. 96% of patients were given clear and concise information regarding their diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or T1 tumours. All 24 patients consulted the same specialist healthcare team. Conclusion: EMR is a safe and effective treatment for patients who have high-grade dysplasia and T1NO tumours. In 54% of cases residual or recurrent disease was suspected. Initially, only single resections were undertaken. Multiple resections are now being carried out to reduce the risk of recurrence. Complications from EMR remain low in this series and consisted of a single episode of post procedural bleeding.

Keywords: endoscopic mucosal resection, oesophageal dysplasia, T1 tumours, cancer network

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

Abstract:

Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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