Search results for: the soil variables
1431 Count Regression Modelling on Number of Migrants in Households
Authors: Tsedeke Lambore Gemecho, Ayele Taye Goshu
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The main objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the number of international migrants in a household and to compare regression models for count response. This study is done by collecting data from total of 2288 household heads of 16 randomly sampled districts in Hadiya and Kembata-Tembaro zones of Southern Ethiopia. The Poisson mixed models, as special cases of the generalized linear mixed model, is explored to determine effects of the predictors: age of household head, farm land size, and household size. Two ethnicities Hadiya and Kembata are included in the final model as dummy variables. Stepwise variable selection has indentified four predictors: age of head, farm land size, family size and dummy variable ethnic2 (0=other, 1=Kembata). These predictors are significant at 5% significance level with count response number of migrant. The Poisson mixed model consisting of the four predictors with random effects districts. Area specific random effects are significant with the variance of about 0.5105 and standard deviation of 0.7145. The results show that the number of migrant increases with heads age, family size, and farm land size. In conclusion, there is a significantly high number of international migration per household in the area. Age of household head, family size, and farm land size are determinants that increase the number of international migrant in households. Community-based intervention is needed so as to monitor and regulate the international migration for the benefits of the society.Keywords: Poisson regression, GLM, number of migrant, Hadiya and Kembata Tembaro zones
Procedia PDF Downloads 2841430 Father Involvement in Delaying Sexual Debut among Adolescents in Nigeria Schools
Authors: Ofole Ndidi
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Context: Empirical studies show that through dual primary attachment mothers and fathers contribute to children’s development and behaviours. While the contribution of mothers is well documented in past researches, fathers’ involvement in Nigeria has received much less attention. As such, exploring fathers’ involvement in sexual behaviours will provide insight for policy implementation and programming designed to delay sexual debut among sexually inexperienced young people in Nigeria. Objective of study: This study examined the extent to which father involvement (father’s parenting style, attitude, father-child communication, father’s marital status, and father’s socio-economic status) could predict delay in sexual debut of a representative sample of Nigeria adolescents in lower secondary. Materials and Methods: Multistage sampling technique was adopted to draw a cross section of 1023 adolescents with the age range of 10-23 years and mean years of 12±2.1 who reported sexually inexperience from six geographical zones in Nigeria. Multiple Regressions was used to analyze the data collected with four standardized self-report measures at 0.05 level of significance. Results: Findings of this study revealed that the independent variables (father’s parenting style, paternal attitudes, paternal–child communication, paternal marital status and paternal socio–economic status) contributed significantly to the delay of sexual debut. However, fathers’ attitude made the most potent contribution (β = 0.255, P < 0.05). Conclusions: The outcomes of this study have implications for programs that are designed to reduce high-risk behaviors among adolescents. It concluded that sexuality education and interventions should involve the fathers in a more integrated and collaborative fashion.Keywords: father, sexual debut, adolescents, Nigeria
Procedia PDF Downloads 3111429 Automatic Furrow Detection for Precision Agriculture
Authors: Manpreet Kaur, Cheol-Hong Min
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The increasing advancement in the robotics equipped with machine vision sensors applied to precision agriculture is a demanding solution for various problems in the agricultural farms. An important issue related with the machine vision system concerns crop row and weed detection. This paper proposes an automatic furrow detection system based on real-time processing for identifying crop rows in maize fields in the presence of weed. This vision system is designed to be installed on the farming vehicles, that is, submitted to gyros, vibration and other undesired movements. The images are captured under image perspective, being affected by above undesired effects. The goal is to identify crop rows for vehicle navigation which includes weed removal, where weeds are identified as plants outside the crop rows. The images quality is affected by different lighting conditions and gaps along the crop rows due to lack of germination and wrong plantation. The proposed image processing method consists of four different processes. First, image segmentation based on HSV (Hue, Saturation, Value) decision tree. The proposed algorithm used HSV color space to discriminate crops, weeds and soil. The region of interest is defined by filtering each of the HSV channels between maximum and minimum threshold values. Then the noises in the images were eliminated by the means of hybrid median filter. Further, mathematical morphological processes, i.e., erosion to remove smaller objects followed by dilation to gradually enlarge the boundaries of regions of foreground pixels was applied. It enhances the image contrast. To accurately detect the position of crop rows, the region of interest is defined by creating a binary mask. The edge detection and Hough transform were applied to detect lines represented in polar coordinates and furrow directions as accumulations on the angle axis in the Hough space. The experimental results show that the method is effective.Keywords: furrow detection, morphological, HSV, Hough transform
Procedia PDF Downloads 2311428 Experimental Study of Sand-Silt Mixtures with Torsional and Flexural Resonant Column Tests
Authors: Meghdad Payan, Kostas Senetakis, Arman Khoshghalb, Nasser Khalili
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Dynamic properties of soils, especially at the range of very small strains, are of particular interest in geotechnical engineering practice for characterization of the behavior of geo-structures subjected to a variety of stress states. This study reports on the small-strain dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures with particular emphasis on the effect of non-plastic fines content on the small strain shear modulus (Gmax), Young’s Modulus (Emax), material damping (Ds,min) and Poisson’s Ratio (v). Several clean sands with a wide range of grain size characteristics and particle shape are mixed with variable percentages of a silica non-plastic silt as fines content. Prepared specimens of sand-silt mixtures at different initial void ratios are subjected to sequential torsional and flexural resonant column tests with elastic dynamic properties measured along an isotropic stress path up to 800 kPa. It is shown that while at low percentages of fines content, there is a significant difference between the dynamic properties of the various samples due to the different characteristics of the sand portion of the mixtures, this variance diminishes as the fines content increases and the soil behavior becomes mainly silt-dominant, rendering no significant influence of sand properties on the elastic dynamic parameters. Indeed, beyond a specific portion of fines content, around 20% to 30% typically denoted as threshold fines content, silt is controlling the behavior of the mixture. Using the experimental results, new expressions for the prediction of small-strain dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures are developed accounting for the percentage of silt and the characteristics of the sand portion. These expressions are general in nature and are capable of evaluating the elastic dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures with any types of parent sand in the whole range of silt percentage. The inefficiency of skeleton void ratio concept in the estimation of small-strain stiffness of sand-silt mixtures is also illustrated.Keywords: damping ratio, Poisson’s ratio, resonant column, sand-silt mixture, shear modulus, Young’s modulus
Procedia PDF Downloads 2501427 Two-Stage Hospital Efficiency Analysis Including Qualitative Evidence: A Greek Case
Authors: Panos Xenos, Milton Nektarios, John Yfantopoulos
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Background: Policy makers, professional organizations and payers have introduced a variety of initiatives and reforms for the health systems worldwide, aimed at improving hospital efficiency. Their efforts are concentrated in two main categories: to constrain increasing healthcare costs and to enhance quality of services provided. Research Objectives: This study examines the efficiency of 112 Greek public hospitals for the year 2009, evaluates the importance of bootstrapping techniques and investigates the effect of contextual factors on hospital efficiency. Furthermore, the effect of qualitative evidence, on hospital efficiency is explored using data from 28 large hospitals. Methods: We applied Data Envelopment Analysis, augmented by bootstrapping techniques, to estimate efficiency scores. In order to measure the effect of environmental factors on hospital efficiency we used Tobit regression analysis. The significance of our models is evaluated using statistical tests to compare distributions. Results: The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test between the original and the bootstrap-corrected efficiency indicates that their distributions are significantly different (p-value<0.01). The environmental factors, that seem to influence efficiency, are Occupancy Rating and the ratio between Outpatient Visits and Inpatient Days. Results indicate that the inclusion of the quality variable in DEA modelling generates statistically significant variations in efficiency scores (p-value<0.05). Conclusions: The inclusion of quality variables and the use of bootstrap resampling in efficiency analysis impose a statistically significant effect on the distribution of efficiency scores. As a policy conclusion we highlight the importance of these methods on hospital efficiency analysis and, by implication, on healthcare resource allocation.Keywords: hospitals, efficiency, quality, data envelopment analysis, Greek public hospital sector
Procedia PDF Downloads 3101426 Dynamic Response around Inclusions in Infinitely Inhomogeneous Media
Authors: Jinlai Bian, Zailin Yang, Guanxixi Jiang, Xinzhu Li
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The problem of elastic wave propagation in inhomogeneous medium has always been a classic problem. Due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes, many economic losses and casualties have been caused, therefore, to prevent earthquake damage to people and reduce damage, this paper studies the dynamic response around the circular inclusion in the whole space with inhomogeneous modulus, the inhomogeneity of the medium is reflected in the shear modulus of the medium with the spatial position, and the density is constant, this method can be used to solve the problem of the underground buried pipeline. Stress concentration phenomena are common in aerospace and earthquake engineering, and the dynamic stress concentration factor (DSCF) is one of the main factors leading to material damage, one of the important applications of the theory of elastic dynamics is to determine the stress concentration in the body with discontinuities such as cracks, holes, and inclusions. At present, the methods include wave function expansion method, integral transformation method, integral equation method and so on. Based on the complex function method, the Helmholtz equation with variable coefficients is standardized by using conformal transformation method and wave function expansion method, the displacement and stress fields in the whole space with circular inclusions are solved in the complex coordinate system, the unknown coefficients are solved by using boundary conditions, by comparing with the existing results, the correctness of this method is verified, based on the superiority of the complex variable function theory to the conformal transformation, this method can be extended to study the inclusion problem of arbitrary shapes. By solving the dynamic stress concentration factor around the inclusions, the influence of the inhomogeneous parameters of the medium and the wavenumber ratio of the inclusions to the matrix on the dynamic stress concentration factor is analyzed. The research results can provide some reference value for the evaluation of nondestructive testing (NDT), oil exploration, seismic monitoring, and soil-structure interaction.Keywords: circular inclusions, complex variable function, dynamic stress concentration factor (DSCF), inhomogeneous medium
Procedia PDF Downloads 1361425 Acne Vulgaris Association with Smoking and Body Mass Index in Jordanian Young Adults
Authors: Almutazballlah Bassam Qablan, Jihan M. Muhaidat, bana Abu Rajab
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Background: Acne vulgaris is considered one of the most common skin conditions encountered by dermatologists. It is a chronic inflammation affecting the pilosebaceous unit. Although acne vulgaris is not fatal, it leads to permanent scarring and disfigurement, and even without scarring, it has a huge effect on patients, causing negative health outcomes. Acne vulgaris patients experience psychological, and emotional ramifications as those with chronic health problems; they feel depressed, angry, anxious, and confused. Although acne is a popular disease, many thoughts and myths are still discussed about its origins and triggering factors. These myths can make you feel guilt as if you were somehow responsible for your acne. In this case control study, we want to define the relationship between two modifiable risk factors ;BMI and smoking, with acne vulgaris. Methods: A case-control study was conducted at King Abdullah University Hospital in Ramtha, Jordan in 2019/2020. A total number of 325 participants between 14 and 33 years of age were interviewed by the authors; including 163 acne vulgaris cases and 162 controls without acne vulgaris. Anthropometric measures and smoking for Acne patients and control participants were the independent variables used to assess acne. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to compare the characteristics of people who reported acne with those with no acne. The collected data analyzed by using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Results: Cigarette smoking was highly associated with controls; odds ratio 0.4 (95% CI: 0.2–0.9) , P-value = 0.018. BMI and waterpipe smoking were statistically insignificant with acne in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We found that cigarette smoking was protective against Acne. There was a statistically insignificant relation between BMI, waterpipe smoking and the development of Acne Vulgaris.Keywords: acne, adolescents, BMI, smoking, case-control, risk factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 961424 Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Agritourism: The Transformative Role of Solar Energy in Enhancing Growth and Resilience in Eritrea
Authors: Beyene Daniel Abrha
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Agritourism in Eritrea is increasingly threatened by climate change, manifesting through rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and resource scarcity. This study employs quantitative methods to assess the economic and environmental impacts of climate change on agritourism, utilizing metrics such as annual income fluctuations, changes in visitor numbers, and energy consumption patterns. The methodology relies on secondary data sourced from the World Bank, government reports, and academic publications to analyze the economic viability of integrating solar energy into agritourism operations. Key variables include the Benefits from Renewable Energy (BRE), encompassing cost savings from reduced energy expenses and the monetized value of avoided greenhouse gas emissions. Using a net present value (NPV) framework, the research compares the impact of solar energy against traditional fossil fuel sources by evaluating the Value of Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions (CO2) and the Value of Health-Related Costs (VHRC) due to air pollution. The preliminary findings of this research are of utmost importance. They indicate that the adoption of solar energy can enhance energy independence by up to 40%, reduce operational costs by 25%, and stabilize agritourism activities in climate-sensitive regions. This research aims to provide actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, supporting the sustainable development of agritourism in Eritrea and contributing to broader climate adaptation strategies. By employing a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, the study highlights the economic advantages and environmental benefits of transitioning to renewable energy in the face of climate change.Keywords: agritourism, climate change, renewable energy, cost benefit analysis, resilience, cost-benefit analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 171423 Study of Morphological Changes of the River Ganga in Patna District, Bihar Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques
Authors: Bhawesh Kumar, A. P. Krishna
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There are continuous changes upon earth’s surface by a variety of natural and anthropogenic agents cut, carry away and depositing of minerals from land. Running water has higher capacity of erosion than other geomorphologic agents. This research work has been carried out on Ganga River, whose channel is continuously changing under the influence of geomorphic agents and human activities in the surrounding regions. The main focus is to study morphological characteristics and sand dynamics of Ganga River with particular emphasis on bank lines and width changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The advance remote sensing data and topographical data were interpreted for obtaining 52 years of changes. For this, remote sensing data of different years (LANDSAT TM 1975, 1988, 1993, ETM 2005 and ETM 2012) and toposheet of SOI for the year 1960 were used as base maps for this study. Sinuosity ratio, braiding index and migratory activity index were also established. It was found to be 1.16 in 1975 and in 1988, 1993, 2005 and 2005 it was 1.09, 1.11, 1.1, 1.09 respectively. The analysis also shows that the minimum value found in 1960 was in reach 1 and maximum value is 4.8806 in 2012 found in reach 4 which suggests creation of number of islands in reach 4 for the year 2012. Migratory activity index (MAI), which is a standardized function of both length and time, was computed for the 8 representative reaches. MAI shows that maximum migration was in 1975-1988 in reach 6 and 7 and minimum migration was in 1993-2005. From the channel change analysis, it was found that the shifting of bank line was cyclic and the river Ganges showed a trend of southward maximum values. The advanced remote sensing data and topographical data helped in obtaining 52 years changes in the river due to various natural and manmade activities like flood, water velocity and excavation, removal of vegetation cover and fertile soil excavation for the various purposes of surrounding regions.Keywords: braided index, migratory activity index (MAI), Ganga river, river morphology
Procedia PDF Downloads 3491422 Heavy Metal Contamination in Ship Breaking Yard, A Case Study in Bangladesh
Authors: Mohammad Mosaddik Rahman
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This study embarks on an exploratory journey to assess the pervasive issue of heavy metal contamination in the water bodies along Chittagong Coast, Bangladesh. Situated along the mesmerizing Bay of Bengal, known for its potential as an emerging tourist haven, economic zone, ship breaking yard, confronts significant environmental hurdles. The core of these challenges lies in the contamination from heavy metals such as lead, cadmium, chromium, and mercury, which detrimentally impact both the ecological integrity and public health of the region. This contamination primarily stems from industrial activities, particularly those involving metallurgical and chemical processes, which release these metals into the environment, leading to their accumulation in soil and water bodies. The study's primary aim is to conduct a thorough assessment of heavy metal pollution levels, alongside an analysis of nutrient variations, focusing on nitrates and nitrites. Methodologically, the study leverages systematic sampling and advanced analytical tools like the Hach 3900 spectrophotometer to ensure precise and reliable data collection. The implications of heavy metal presence are multifaceted, affecting microbial and aquatic life, and posing severe health risks to the local population, including respiratory problems, neurological disorders, and an increased risk of cancer. The results of this study highlight the urgent need for effective mitigation strategies and regulatory measures to address this critical issue. By providing a comprehensive understanding of the environmental and public health implications of heavy metal contamination in Chittagong Coast, this research endeavours to serve as a catalyst for change, emphasising the need for pollution control and advancements in water management policies. It is envisioned that the outcomes of this study will guide stakeholders in collaborating to develop and implement sustainable solutions, ultimately safeguarding the region’s environment and public health.Keywords: heavy metal, environmental health, pollution control policies, shipbreaking yard
Procedia PDF Downloads 601421 Hallucinatory Activity in Schizophrenia: The Relationship with Childhood Memories, Submissive Behavior, Social Comparison, and Depression
Authors: Célia Barreto Carvalho, Carolina da Motta, José Pinto-Gouveia, Ermelindo Bernardo Peixoto
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Auditory hallucinations among the most invalidating and distressing experiences reported by patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, leading to feelings of powerlessness and helplessness towards their illness. In more severe cases, these auditory hallucinations can take the form of commanding voices, which are often related to high suicidality rates in these patients. Several authors propose that the meanings attributed to the hallucinatory experience, rather than characteristics like form and content, can be determinant in patients’ reactions to hallucinatory activity, particularly in the case of voice-hearing experiences. In this study, 48 patients diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia presenting auditory hallucinations were studied. Multiple regression analyses were computed to study the influence of several developmental aspects, such as family and social dynamics, bullying, depression, and socio-cognitive variables on the auditory hallucinations, on patients’ attributions and relationships with their voices, and on the resulting invalidation of hallucinatory experience. Overall, results showed how relationships with voices can mirror several aspects of interpersonal relationship with others, and how self-schemas, depression and actual social relationships help shaping the voice-hearing experience. Early experiences of victimization and submission help predict the attributions of omnipotence of the voices, and increased hostility from parents seems to increase the malevolence of the voices, suggesting that socio-cognitive factors can significantly contribute to the etiology and maintenance of auditory hallucinations. The understanding of the characteristics of auditory hallucinations and the relationships patients established with their voices can allow the development of more promising therapeutic interventions that can be more effective in decreasing invalidation caused by this devastating mental illness.Keywords: auditory hallucination, beliefs, life events, schizophrenia
Procedia PDF Downloads 4521420 Family Firms Performance: Examining the Impact of Digital and Technological Capabilities using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling and Necessary Condition Analysis
Authors: Pedro Mota Veiga
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This study comprehensively evaluates the repercussions of innovation, digital advancements, and technological capabilities on the operational performance of companies across fifteen European Union countries following the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing insights from longitudinal data sourced from the 2019 World Bank business surveys and subsequent 2020 World Bank COVID-19 follow-up business surveys, our extensive examination involves a diverse sample of 5763 family businesses. In exploring the relationships between these variables, we adopt a nuanced approach to assess the impact of innovation and digital and technological capabilities on performance. This analysis unfolds along two distinct perspectives: one rooted in necessity and the other insufficiency. The methodological framework employed integrates partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) with condition analysis (NCA), providing a robust foundation for drawing meaningful conclusions. The findings of the study underscore a positive influence on the performance of family firms stemming from both technological capabilities and digital advancements. Furthermore, it is pertinent to highlight the indirect contribution of innovation to enhanced performance, operating through its impact on digital capabilities. This research contributes valuable insights to the broader understanding of how innovation, coupled with digital and technological capabilities, can serve as pivotal factors in shaping the post-COVID-19 landscape for businesses across the European Union. The intricate analysis of family businesses, in particular adds depth to the comprehension of the dynamics at play in diverse economic contexts within the European Union.Keywords: digital capabilities, technological capabilities, family firms performance, innovation, NCA, PLS-SEM
Procedia PDF Downloads 631419 An Education Profile for Indonesian Youth Development
Authors: Titia Izzati, Pebri Hastuti, Gusti Ayu Arwati
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Based on the program of The Ministry of Youth and Sports of Republic of Indonesia, this study compares the Statistikdata of the educational factors and the number of young people to a survey conducted in the five years, 2009-2013. As a result, significant trends are traced through an era filled with events that deeply affected the lives of young people, such as the peak and the ending of the political issues. Changing values under examination include attitudes toward authority and obligations toward others; social values dealing with attitudes toward the work ethic; marriage, family, and the importance of money in defining the meaning of success; and self-fulfillment. While the largest portion of the sample contains college youth, other people between the ages of 16 and 30 are considered, including high school students, blue collar workers, housewives, and high school dropouts. The report provides an overview and interpretation of the data with the presents the research contrasting the values of the college and non-college youth. In the other hand, the youth education profile data also can be utilized in making arrange the youth development index, especially in educational dimension. In order to the formulation of this youth development index, the basic needs of youth in Indonesia have to be listed as the variables. So that, the indicators of the youth development index are really in accordance withthe actual conditions of Indonesian youth. The indicators are the average number of old-school youth, the rate of youth illiterate people, the numbers of youth who are continuing their studies or who have completed the study in college, the number of youth graduate high school/vocational or college graduates were engaged in the labor fair. The formula for the youth development index is arranged in educational dimension with all actual indicatorsKeywords: education, young people, Indonesia, ministry programs, youth index development
Procedia PDF Downloads 2741418 The Impact of Financial Risk on Banks’ Financial Performance: A Comparative Study of Islamic Banks and Conventional Banks in Pakistan
Authors: Mohammad Yousaf Safi Mohibullah Afghan
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The study made on Islamic and conventional banks scrutinizes the risks interconnected with credit and liquidity on the productivity performance of Islamic and conventional banks that operate in Pakistan. Among the banks, only 4 Islamic and 18 conventional banks have been selected to enrich the result of our study on Islamic banks performance in connection to conventional banks. The selection of the banks to the panel is based on collecting quarterly unbalanced data ranges from the first quarter of 2007 to the last quarter of 2017. The data are collected from the Bank’s web sites and State Bank of Pakistan. The data collection is carried out based on Delta-method test. The mentioned test is used to find out the empirical results. In the study, while collecting data on the banks, the return on assets and return on equity have been major factors that are used assignificant proxies in determining the profitability of the banks. Moreover, another major proxy is used in measuring credit and liquidity risks, the loan loss provision to total loan and the ratio of liquid assets to total liability. Meanwhile, with consideration to the previous literature, some other variables such as bank size, bank capital, bank branches, and bank employees have been used to tentatively control the impact of those factors whose direct and indirect effects on profitability is understood. In conclusion, the study emphasizes that credit risk affects return on asset and return on equity positively, and there is no significant difference in term of credit risk between Islamic and conventional banks. Similarly, the liquidity risk has a significant impact on the bank’s profitability, though the marginal effect of liquidity risk is higher for Islamic banks than conventional banks.Keywords: islamic & conventional banks, performance return on equity, return on assets, pakistan banking sectors, profitibility
Procedia PDF Downloads 1661417 Preparation of Chemically Activated Carbon from Waste Tire Char for Lead Ions Adsorption and Optimization Using Response Surface Methodology
Authors: Lucky Malise, Hilary Rutto, Tumisang Seodigeng
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The use of tires in automobiles is very important in the automobile industry. However, there is a serious environmental problem concerning the disposal of these rubber tires once they become worn out. The main aim of this study was to prepare activated carbon from waste tire pyrolysis char by impregnating KOH on pyrolytic char. Adsorption studies on lead onto chemically activated carbon was carried out using response surface methodology. The effect of process parameters such as temperature (°C), adsorbent dosage (g/1000ml), pH, contact time (minutes) and initial lead concentration (mg/l) on the adsorption capacity were investigated. It was found that the adsorption capacity increases with an increase in contact time, pH, temperature and decreases with an increase in lead concentration. Optimization of the process variables was done using a numerical optimization method. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectra (FTIR) analysis, XRay diffraction (XRD), Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and scanning electron microscope was used to characterize the pyrolytic carbon char before and after activation. The optimum points 1g/ 100 ml for adsorbent dosage, 7 for pH value of the solution, 115.2 min for contact time, 100 mg/l for initial metal concentration, and 25°C for temperature were obtained to achieve the highest adsorption capacity of 93.176 mg/g with a desirability of 0.994. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectra (FTIR) analysis and Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) show the presence of oxygen-containing functional groups on the surface of the activated carbon produced and that the weight loss taking place during the activation step is small.Keywords: waste tire pyrolysis char, chemical activation, central composite design (CCD), adsorption capacity, numerical optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 2271416 An Experimental Study on the Temperature Reduction of Exhaust Gas at a Snorkeling of Submarine
Authors: Seok-Tae Yoon, Jae-Yeong Choi, Gyu-Mok Jeon, Yong-Jin Cho, Jong-Chun Park
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Conventional submarines obtain propulsive force by using an electric propulsion system consisting of a diesel generator, battery, motor, and propeller. In the underwater, the submarine uses the electric power stored in the battery. After that, when a certain amount of electric power is consumed, the submarine floats near the sea water surface and recharges the electric power by using the diesel generator. The voyage carried out while charging the power is called a snorkel, and the high-temperature exhaust gas from the diesel generator forms a heat distribution on the sea water surface. The heat distribution is detected by weapon system equipped with thermo-detector and that is the main cause of reducing the survivability of the submarine. In this paper, an experimental study was carried out to establish optimal operating conditions of a submarine for reduction of infrared signature radiated from the sea water surface. For this, a hot gas generating system and a round acrylic water tank with adjustable water level were made. The control variables of the experiment were set as the mass flow rate, the temperature difference between the water and the hot gas in the water tank, and the water level difference between the air outlet and the water surface. The experimental instrumentation used a thermocouple of T-type to measure the released air temperature on the surface of the water, and a thermography system to measure the thermal energy distribution on the water surface. As a result of the experiment study, we analyzed the correlation between the final released temperature of the exhaust pipe exit in a submarine and the depth of the snorkel, and presented reasonable operating conditions for the infrared signature reduction of submarine.Keywords: experiment study, flow rate, infrared signature, snorkeling, thermography
Procedia PDF Downloads 3521415 An Estimation of Rice Output Supply Response in Sierra Leone: A Nerlovian Model Approach
Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Issa Fofana, Brima Gegbe, Tamba I. Isaac
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Rice grain is Sierra Leone’s staple food and the nation imports over 120,000 metric tons annually due to a shortfall in its cultivation. Thus, the insufficient level of the crop's cultivation in Sierra Leone is caused by many problems and this led to the endlessly widening supply and demand for the crop within the country. Consequently, this has instigated the government to spend huge money on the importation of this grain that would have been otherwise cultivated domestically at a cheaper cost. Hence, this research attempts to explore the response of rice supply with respect to its demand in Sierra Leone within the period 1980-2010. The Nerlovian adjustment model to the Sierra Leone rice data set within the period 1980-2010 was used. The estimated trend equations revealed that time had significant effect on output, productivity (yield) and area (acreage) of rice grain within the period 1980-2010 and this occurred generally at the 1% level of significance. The results showed that, almost the entire growth in output had the tendency to increase in the area cultivated to the crop. The time trend variable that was included for government policy intervention showed an insignificant effect on all the variables considered in this research. Therefore, both the short-run and long-run price response was inelastic since all their values were less than one. From the findings above, immediate actions that will lead to productivity growth in rice cultivation are required. To achieve the above, the responsible agencies should provide extension service schemes to farmers as well as motivating them on the adoption of modern rice varieties and technology in their rice cultivation ventures.Keywords: Nerlovian adjustment model, price elasticities, Sierra Leone, trend equations
Procedia PDF Downloads 2351414 Symbolic Morphologies: Built Form and Religion in Sylhet City, Bangladesh
Authors: Sayed Ahmed
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Religious activities that have evolved the sacred into a dynamic cultural phenomenon in the public realm of Sylhet, Bangladesh, and the spatiality of sacred sites and everyday practices in certain built forms have framed these phenomena. Religious rituals in Sylhet gave birth to unique practices of their own and have a vast impact even on contemporary spatial practices, while most Western researchers are not hopeful about the future of religion. However, despite extensive research on urban morphology and religion separately, there is limited literature on the relationship between these two topics to capture religious perceptions and experiences in urban spaces. This research will try to fill the existing gap and explain sacred within the range of Western sociological and philosophical tools implemented in third-world contexts, which was never highlighted before. This perspective of research puts forth the argument that urban morphology influences sacred experiences and how consecrated entities and religious activities shape the city's structure in return. The methodology of the research will map key morphological and religious variables. This mapping might include festival trajectories, street life observations, pedestrian densities, religious activities, public and private interface types with religious commodification, and the identification of blurred boundaries between sacred and profane on smaller to broader urban scales. To relate the derived cartography, illustrative (not representative) interviews about religious signs and symbols will be conducted and compared accordingly. The possible findings might reintroduce the diversity of religious practices in urban places and develop a decent concept of how sacred and urban morphology are mutually reinforcing the city, which has remained a vital nutrient for the survival of its inhabitants. Such infrequent conceptualizations of urban morphology and its relationship to symbolic sacralization are truly ‘outside’ to those that exist in the West.Keywords: sylhet, religion, urban morphology, symbolic exchange, Baudrillard
Procedia PDF Downloads 511413 The Culex Pipiens Niche: Assessment with Climatic and Physiographic Variables via a Geographic Information System
Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, João Casaca
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Using a geographic information system (GIS), the relations between a georeferenced data set of Culex pipiens sl. mosquitoes collected in Portugal mainland during seven years (2006-2012) and meteorological and physiographic parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures), daily total rainfall, altitude, land use/land cover and proximity to water bodies are evaluated. Focus is on the mosquito females; the characterization of its habitat is the key for the planning of chirurgical non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures to avoid ambient degradation. The GIS allow for the spatial determination of the zones were the mosquito mean captures has been above average; using the meteorological values at these coordinates, the limits of each parameter are identified/computed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the thresholds obtained for each parameter. The intersection of the maps obtained for each month show the evolution of the area favorable to the species through the mosquito season, which is from May to October at these latitudes. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters. Three levels of risk could be identified for each parameter, using above average captures as an index. The results were applied to the suitability meteorological maps of each month. The Culex pipiens critical niche is delimited, reflecting the critical areas and the level of risk for transmission of the pathogens to which they are competent vectors (West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses).Keywords: Culex pipiens, ecological niche, risk assessment, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 5451412 Carbon Pool Assessment in Community Forests, Nepal
Authors: Medani Prasad Rijal
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Forest itself is a factory as well as product. It supplies tangible and intangible goods and services. It supplies timber, fuel wood, fodder, grass leaf litter as well as non timber edible goods and medicinal and aromatic products additionally provides environmental services. These environmental services are of local, national or even global importance. In Nepal, more than 19 thousands community forests are providing environmental service in less economic benefit than actual efficiency. There is a risk of cost of management of those forest exceeds benefits and forests get converted to open access resources in future. Most of the environmental goods and services do not have markets which mean no prices at which they are available to the consumers, therefore the valuation of these services goods and services establishment of paying mechanism for such services and insure the benefit to community is more relevant in local as well as global scale. There are few examples of carbon trading in domestic level to meet the country wide emission goal. In this contest, the study aims to explore the public attitude towards carbon offsetting and their responsibility over service providers. This study helps in promotion of environment service awareness among general people, service provider and community forest. The research helps to unveil the carbon pool scenario in community forest and willingness to pay for carbon offsetting of people who are consuming more energy than general people and emitting relatively more carbon in atmosphere. The study has assessed the carbon pool status in two community forest and valuated carbon service from community forest through willingness to pay in Dharan municipality situated in eastern. In the study, in two community forests carbon pools were assessed following the guideline “Forest Carbon Inventory Guideline 2010” prescribed by Ministry of Forest and soil Conservation, Nepal. Final outcomes of analysis in intensively managed area of Hokse CF recorded as 103.58 tons C /ha with 6173.30 tons carbon stock. Similarly in Hariyali CF carbon density was recorded 251.72 mg C /ha. The total carbon stock of intensively managed blocks in Hariyali CF is 35839.62 tons carbon.Keywords: carbon, offsetting, sequestration, valuation, willingness to pay
Procedia PDF Downloads 3561411 Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological System of the Harvey River Catchment
Authors: Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi, P. Ranjan Sarukkalige
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Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.Keywords: climate change impact, Harvey catchment, HBV model, hydrological modelling, GCMs, LARS-WG
Procedia PDF Downloads 2651410 Assessment of Groundwater Aquifer Impact from Artificial Lagoons and the Reuse of Wastewater in Qatar
Authors: H. Aljabiry, L. Bailey, S. Young
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Qatar is a desert with an average temperature 37⁰C, reaching over 40⁰C during summer. Precipitation is uncommon and mostly in winter. Qatar depends on desalination for drinking water and on groundwater and recycled water for irrigation. Water consumption and network leakage per capita in Qatar are amongst the highest in the world; re-use of treated wastewater is extremely limited with only 14% of treated wastewater being used for irrigation. This has led to the country disposing of unwanted water from various sources in lagoons situated around the country, causing concern over the possibility of environmental pollution. Accordingly, our hypothesis underpinning this research is that the quality and quantity of water in lagoons is having an impact on the groundwater reservoirs in Qatar. Lagoons (n = 14) and wells (n = 55) were sampled for both summer and winter in 2018 (summer and winter). Water, adjoining soil and plant samples were analysed for multiple elements by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. Organic and inorganic carbon were measured (CN analyser) and the major anions were determined by ion chromatography. Salinization in both the lagoon and the wells was seen with good correlations between Cl⁻, Na⁺, Li, SO₄, S, Sr, Ca, Ti (p-value < 0.05). Association of heavy metals was observed of Ni, Cu, Ag, and V, Cr, Mo, Cd which is due to contamination from anthropological activities such as wastewater disposal or spread of contaminated dust. However, looking at each elements none of them exceeds the Qatari regulation. Moreover, gypsum saturation in the system was observed in both the lagoon and wells water samples. Lagoons and the water of the well are found to be of a saline type as well as Ca²⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻ type evidencing both gypsum dissolution and salinization in the system. Moreover, Maps produced by Inverse distance weighting showed an increasing level of Nitrate in the groundwater in winter, and decrease chloride and sulphate level, indicating recharge effect after winter rain events. While E. coli and faecal bacteria were found in most of the lagoons, biological analysis for wells needs to be conducted to understand the biological contamination from lagoon water infiltration. As a conclusion, while both the lagoon and the well showed the same results, more sampling is needed to understand the impact of the lagoons on the groundwater.Keywords: groundwater quality, lagoon, treated wastewater, water management, wastewater treatment, wetlands
Procedia PDF Downloads 1351409 Impact of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem Services: In situ Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in Tropical Forests
Authors: Rajendra Kumar Pandey
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Forest genetic resources not only represent regional biodiversity but also have immense value as the wealth for securing livelihood of poor people. These are vulnerable to ecological due to depletion/deforestation and /or impact of climate change. These resources of various plant categories are vulnerable on the floor of natural tropical forests, and leading to the threat on the growth and development of future forests. More than 170 species, including NTFPs, are in critical condition for their survival in natural tropical forests of Central India. Forest degradation, commensurate with biodiversity loss, is now pervasive, disproportionately affecting the rural poor who directly depend on forests for their subsistence. Looking ahead the interaction between forest and water, soil, precipitation, climate change, etc. and its impact on biodiversity of tropical forests, it is inevitable to develop co-operation policies and programmes to address new emerging realities. Forests ecosystem also known as the 'wealth of poor' providing goods and ecosystem services on a sustainable basis, are now recognized as a stepping stone to move poor people beyond subsistence. Poverty alleviation is the prime objective of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, environmental sustainability including other MDGs, is essential to ensure successful elimination of poverty and well being of human society. Loss and degradation of ecosystem are the most serious threats to achieving development goals worldwide. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005) was an attempt to identify provisioning and regulating cultural and supporting ecosystem services to provide livelihood security of human beings. Climate change may have a substantial impact on ecological structure and function of forests, provisioning, regulations and management of resources which can affect sustainable flow of ecosystem services. To overcome these limitations, policy guidelines with respect to planning and consistent research strategy need to be framed for conservation and sustainable development of forest genetic resources.Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystem services, sustainable forest management, biodiversity conservation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2981408 The Analysis of Drill Bit Optimization by the Application of New Electric Impulse Technology in Shallow Water Absheron Peninsula
Authors: Ayshan Gurbanova
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Despite based on the fact that drill bit which is the smallest part of bottom hole assembly costs only in between 10% and 15% of the total expenses made, they are the first equipment that is in contact with the formation itself. Hence, it is consequential to choose the appropriate type and dimension of drilling bit, which will prevent majority of problems by not demanding many tripping procedure. However, within the advance in technology, it is now seamless to be beneficial in the terms of many concepts such as subsequent time of operation, energy, expenditure, power and so forth. With the intention of applying the method to Azerbaijan, the field of Shallow Water Absheron Peninsula has been suggested, where the mainland has been located 15 km away from the wildcat wells, named as “NKX01”. It has the water depth of 22 m as indicated. In 2015 and 2016, the seismic survey analysis of 2D and 3D have been conducted in contract area as well as onshore shallow water depth locations. With the aim of indicating clear elucidation, soil stability, possible submersible dangerous scenarios, geohazards and bathymetry surveys have been carried out as well. Within the seismic analysis results, the exact location of exploration wells have been determined and along with this, the correct measurement decisions have been made to divide the land into three productive zones. In the term of the method, Electric Impulse Technology (EIT) is based on discharge energies of electricity within the corrosivity in rock. Take it simply, the highest value of voltages could be created in the less range of nano time, where it is sent to the rock through electrodes’ baring as demonstrated below. These electrodes- higher voltage powered and grounded are placed on the formation which could be obscured in liquid. With the design, it is more seamless to drill horizontal well based on the advantage of loose contact of formation. There is also no chance of worn ability as there are no combustion, mechanical power exist. In the case of energy, the usage of conventional drilling accounts for 1000 𝐽/𝑐𝑚3 , where this value accounts for between 100 and 200 𝐽/𝑐𝑚3 in EIT. Last but not the least, from the test analysis, it has been yielded that it achieves the value of ROP more than 2 𝑚/ℎ𝑟 throughout 15 days. Taking everything into consideration, it is such a fact that with the comparison of data analysis, this method is highly applicable to the fields of Azerbaijan.Keywords: drilling, drill bit cost, efficiency, cost
Procedia PDF Downloads 751407 A Comparative Study of Cognitive Functions in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Patients, Secondary-Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Patients and Normal People
Authors: Alireza Pirkhaefi
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Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the most common diseases of the central nervous system (brain and spinal cord). Given the importance of cognitive disorders in patients with multiple sclerosis, the present study was in order to compare cognitive functions (Working memory, Attention and Centralization, and Visual-spatial perception) in patients with relapsing- remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). Method: Present study was performed as a retrospective study. This research was conducted with Ex-Post Facto method. The samples of research consisted of 60 patients with multiple sclerosis (30 patients relapsing-retrograde and 30 patients secondary progressive), who were selected from Tehran Community of MS Patients Supported as convenience sampling. 30 normal persons were also selected as a comparison group. Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MOCA) was used to assess cognitive functions. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis of variance. Results: The results showed that there were significant differences among cognitive functioning in patients with RRMS, SPMS, and normal individuals. There were not significant differences in working memory between two groups of patients with RRMS and SPMS; while significant differences in these variables were seen between the two groups and normal individuals. Also, results showed significant differences in attention and centralization and visual-spatial perception among three groups. Conclusions: Results showed that there are differences between cognitive functions of RRMS and SPMS patients so that the functions of RRMS patients are better than SPMS patients. These results have a critical role in improvement of cognitive functions; reduce the factors causing disability due to cognitive impairment, and especially overall health of society.Keywords: multiple sclerosis, cognitive function, secondary-progressive, normal subjects
Procedia PDF Downloads 2391406 Role of Family in Child Behavior Problems: A General Overview of Dissertations and Thesis at Turkey
Authors: Selen Demirtas Zorbaz, Ozlem Ulas
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Examining the reasons of child behaviour problems has been one of the focus of psychology and related disciplines for so long. It can be said there is a lot of reasons of child behaviour problems and familial factors might be the leading ones. When taking into account the prevalence of the children having behaviour problems in Turkey, it can be said that it is important to carry out studies putting forward the reasons of behaviour problems. From this point of view, the aim of this study is to examine dissertations and thesis putting forward the relationship between problem behaviour of the children (12-year-old and younger) and teenagers (12-18 years old), and familial factors. For that purpose, 46 dissertations that were chosen according to the study criteria out of 141 dissertations scanned by using the keywords of ‘behaviour problems’ and ‘behaviour disorder’ at Higher Education Thesis Centre between the years of 1989 and 2016 have been taken into the scope of the study. ‘Thesis Examination Draft Form’ has been prepared for the purpose of being used for data collecting tool. For the analysis of the data, percentage, and frequency analysis methods have been used. When the results of these studies are evaluated on the whole, it is seen that all the dissertations and thesis done are descriptive study, and it was not encountered any studies designed as experimental. When looked at the distribution of dissertations by years, it is seen that the first thesis was done in 1989 and the most number of dissertations were done in the years of 2014 and 2016. When looked at the department in which the dissertations were done, it can be said that dissertations and thesis were done in many different fields of disciplines ranging from psychology and special education. In addition to this, when investigated the group taken into the scope of dissertations and thesis research, it is seen that the children mostly worked with are below the age of 12 and types of studies are master’s thesis. When the dissertations and thesis are examined by means of topics, it is seen that mostly-studied topics are demographic variables such as gender, whether the family is fragmented or not, education level of the family and the parents’ attitude. Obtained findings have been examined in the light of literature.Keywords: family, child behaviour problem, dissertations, thesis
Procedia PDF Downloads 2331405 A Study of Teachers’ View on Modern Methods of Teaching Regarding the Quality of Instruction in Shiraz High Schools
Authors: Nasrin Badrkhani
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Teaching is an interaction between the teacher, student, and the concept being taught, especially within the classroom setting. As society increasingly values thoughtful and creative individuals, there is a growing need to adopt modern, active teaching methods. These methods should engage students in activities that foster problem-solving, creativity, cooperation, and scientific thinking skills. Modern teaching methods emphasize student involvement, gradual and continuous learning (process-centered approaches), and holistic evaluation of students' abilities and talents. A shift from teacher-centered to student-centered teaching is crucial. Among these modern methods are group work, role-playing, group discussions, and activities that engage students in evaluating societal values. This research employs a survey and a 38-question Likert scale questionnaire to explore teachers' perspectives on the impact of modern teaching methods on the quality of education. The study also examines the relationship between these perspectives and variables such as gender, major, and teaching experience. The statistical population consists of high school teachers in Shiraz, Iran, with sampling done using the Morgan table. Discriminant analysis was used for the initial analysis of the questions, and Cronbach's Alpha test was employed for the final examination. SPSS Software was used for statistical analysis, including T-tests and one-way ANOVA. The results indicate that teachers in this city generally have positive attitudes towards the use of modern teaching methods, except when it comes to engaging in judgments concerning societal values. There is no significant difference in viewpoints based on gender or educational background. The findings are consistent with similar studies conducted both within Iran and internationally.Keywords: learning, modern methods, student, teacher, teaching
Procedia PDF Downloads 251404 Dispersion Rate of Spilled Oil in Water Column under Non-Breaking Water Waves
Authors: Hanifeh Imanian, Morteza Kolahdoozan
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The purpose of this study is to present a mathematical phrase for calculating the dispersion rate of spilled oil in water column under non-breaking waves. In this regard, a multiphase numerical model is applied for which waves and oil phase were computed concurrently, and accuracy of its hydraulic calculations have been proven. More than 200 various scenarios of oil spilling in wave waters were simulated using the multiphase numerical model and its outcome were collected in a database. The recorded results were investigated to identify the major parameters affected vertical oil dispersion and finally 6 parameters were identified as main independent factors. Furthermore, some statistical tests were conducted to identify any relationship between the dependent variable (dispersed oil mass in the water column) and independent variables (water wave specifications containing height, length and wave period and spilled oil characteristics including density, viscosity and spilled oil mass). Finally, a mathematical-statistical relationship is proposed to predict dispersed oil in marine waters. To verify the proposed relationship, a laboratory example available in the literature was selected. Oil mass rate penetrated in water body computed by statistical regression was in accordance with experimental data was predicted. On this occasion, it was necessary to verify the proposed mathematical phrase. In a selected laboratory case available in the literature, mass oil rate penetrated in water body computed by suggested regression. Results showed good agreement with experimental data. The validated mathematical-statistical phrase is a useful tool for oil dispersion prediction in oil spill events in marine areas.Keywords: dispersion, marine environment, mathematical-statistical relationship, oil spill
Procedia PDF Downloads 2341403 Water Problems, Social Mobilization and Migration: A Case Study of Lake Urmia
Authors: Fatemeh Dehghan Khangahi, Hakan Gunes
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Transforming a public necessity into a commercial commodity becomes more and more evident as time goes on, and it is one of the issues of water shortage. Development projects of countries, consume the water and waterbeds in various forms, ignoring the concepts such as sustainability and the negative effects they place on the environment, pollute and change the ways of waterways. Throughout these processes, the water basins and all the vital environments sometimes can suffer damage to the irreparable level. In this context, the issue of Lake Urmia that is located in the North West of Iran left alone by drought, has been researched. The lake, which is on the list of UNESCO's biosphere reserves, is now exposed to the danger of desiccation. If the desiccation is fully realized, more than 5.000.000 people that they are living around the lake, will have to migrate as a result of negative living conditions. As a matter of fact, along with the recent years of increasing drought level, regional migrations have begun. In addition to migration issues, it is also necessary to specify the negative effects on human and all-round’s life that depend on the formation of salt storms, mixing of salt into the air and soil, which threaten human health seriously because the lake is salty. The main aim of this work is to raise national and international awareness of this problem, which is an environment and a human tragedy at the same time. This research has two basic questions: 1) In the case of Lake Urmia, what are environmental problems and how they have emerged and what is the role of governments? 2) What is the social consequence of this problem in relation to the first question? In response, after the literature search, having a comparative view of the situation of the Aral Sea and the Great Salt Lake (Utah, USA), which involved the two major international examples. The first, one is related to the terms of population and migration, the second is about biological properties. Then, data and status information that provided after 3 years area research has been evaluated. Towards the end, with the support of qualitative and quantitative methods, the study of social mobilization in the region has been carried out. An example of it is using the public space of TRAXTOR matches like a protests area.Keywords: environment problems, water, social mobilization, Lake Urmia, migration
Procedia PDF Downloads 1341402 Objective-Based System Dynamics Modeling to Forecast the Number of Health Professionals in Pudong New Area of Shanghai
Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue
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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics
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