Search results for: rate of bio gas production

Authors: Ahmed N. Shmroukh

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This study examined a new solar still equipped with a movable inclined back, and this back is covered with a wick for seawater desalination. The tested backside inclination angles were 105, 125 and 160, respectively. The wick helped in increasing the seawater evaporation rate by increasing the evaporation surface area allowed for seawater in the still basin. The proposed modified solar still was compared with the conventional simple still. The results showed that the daily produced desalinated water of the modified solar still with angles 105, 125 and 160 increased by approximately 13.7%, 27.9%, and 39.2%, respectively, compared with the conventional solar still.

Keywords: solar still, inclined still, porous materials, Wick

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Authors: Reza Shakoori

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This paper presents a structural correction of Arabic and Persian strokes using manipulation of their chain codes in order to improve the rate and performance of Persian and Arabic handwritten word recognition systems. It collects pure and effective features to represent a character with one consolidated feature vector and reduces variations in order to decrease the number of training samples and increase the chance of successful classification. Our results also show that how the proposed approaches can simplify classification and consequently recognition by reducing variations and possible noises on the chain code by keeping orientation of characters and their backbone structures.

Keywords: Arabic, chain code normalization, OCR systems, image processing

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Authors: Ertuğrul Yılmaz

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One of the most important occupational groups in the food chain from farm to fork is a veterinary medicine. This occupational group, which has important duties in the prevention of many zoonotic diseases and in public health, takes place in many critical control points from soil to our kitchen. It has important duties from mycotoxins transmitted from the soil to slaughterhouses or milk processing facilities. Starting from the soil, which constitutes 70% of mycotoxin contamination, up to the TMR made from raw materials obtained from the soil, there are all critical control points from feeding to slaughterhouses and milk production enterprises. We can take the precaution of mycotoxins such as Aflatoxin B1, Ochratoxin, Zearalenone, and Fumonisin, which we encounter on farms while in the field. It has been reported that aflatoxin B1 is a casenerogen and passes into milk in studies. It is likely that many mycotoxins pose significant threats to public health and will turn out to be even more dangerous over time. Even raw material storage and TMR preparation are very important for public health. The danger of fumonisin accumulating in the liver will be understood over time. Zoonotic diseases are also explained with examples. In this study, how important veterinarians are in terms of public health is explained with examples. In the two-year mycotoxin screenings, fumonisin mycotoxin was found to be very high in corn and corn by-products, and it was determined that it accumulated in the liver for a long time and remained cornic in animals. It has been determined that mycotoxins are present in all livestock feeds, poultry feeds, and raw materials, not alone, but in double-triple form. Starting from the end, mycotoxin scans should be carried out from feed to raw materials and from raw materials to soil. In this way, we prevent the transmission of mycotoxins to animals and from animals to humans. Liver protectors such as toxin binders, beta-glucan, mannan oligosaccharides, activated carbon, prebiotics, and silymarin were used in certain proportions in the total mixed ratio, and positive results were obtained. Humidity and temperature controls of raw material silos were made at certain intervals. Necropsy was performed on animals that died as a result of mycotoxicosis, and macroscopic photographs were taken of the organs. We have determined that the mycotoxin screening in experimental animals and the feeds made without detecting the presence and amount of bacterial factors affect the results of the project to be made. For this, a series of precautionary plans have been created, starting from the production processes.

Keywords: mycotoxins, feed safety, processes, public health

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Authors: E. Kharaishvili

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The paper shows the necessity of farm diversification in accordance with the current trends in agricultural sector of Georgia. The possibilities for the diversification and the corresponding economic policy are suggested. The causes that hinder diversification of farms are revealed, possibilities of diversification are suggested and the ability of increasing employment through diversification is proved. Index of harvest diversification is calculated based on the areas used for cereals and legumes, potatoes and vegetables and other food crops. Crop and livestock production indexes are analyzed, correlation between crop capacity index and value-added per one worker and one ha is studied. Based on the research farm diversification strategies and priorities of corresponding economic policy are presented. Based on the conclusions relevant recommendations are suggested.

Keywords: farm diversification, diversification index, agricultural development policy

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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Authors: L. Kutateldze, T. Urushadze, R. Khvedelidze, N. Zakariashvili, I. Khokhashvili, T. Sadunishvili

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Microbial cellulase/xylanase have shown their potential application in various industries including pulp and paper, textile, laundry, biofuel production, food and feed industry, brewing, and agriculture. Extremophilic micromycetes and their enzymes that are resistant to critical values of temperature and pH, and retaining enzyme activity for a long time are of great industrial interest. Among strains of microscopic fungi from the collection of S. Durmishidze Institute of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, strains isolated from different ecological niches of Southern Caucasus-active producers of cellulase/xylanase have been selected by means of screening under deep cultivation conditions. Extremophilic micromycetes and their enzymes that are resistant to critical values of temperature and pH, and retaining enzyme activity for a long time are of great industrial interest. Among strains of microscopic fungi from the collection of S. Durmishidze Institute of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, strains isolated from different ecological niches of Southern Caucasus-active producers of cellulase/xylanase have been selected by means of screening under deep cultivation conditions. Representatives of the genera Aspergillus, Penicillium and Trichoderma are outstanding by relatively high activities of these enzymes. Among the producers were revealed thermophilic strains, representatives of the genus Aspergillus-Aspergillus terreus, Aspergillus versicolor, Aspergillus wentii, also strains of Sporotrichum pulverulentum and Chaetomium thermophile. As a result of optimization of cultivation media and conditions, activities of enzymes produced by the strains have been increased by 4 -189 %. Two strains, active producers of cellulase/xylanase – Penicillium canescence E2 (mesophile) and Aspergillus versicolor Z17 (thermophile) were chosen for further studies. Cellulase/xylanase enzyme preparations from two different genera of microscopic fungi Penicillium canescence E2 and Aspergillus versicolor Z 17 were obtained with activities 220 U/g /1200 U/g and 125 U/g /940 U/g, correspondingly. Main technical characteristics were as follows: the highest enzyme activities were obtained for mesophilic strain Penicillium canescence E2 at 45-500C, while almost the same enzyme activities were fixed for the thermophilic strain Aspergillus versicolor Z 17 at temperature 60-65°C, exceeding the temperature optimum of the mesophile by 150C. Optimum pH of action of the studied cellulase/xylanases from mesophileic and thermophilic strains were similar and equaled to 4.5-5.0 It has been shown that cellulase/xylanase technical preparations from selected strains of Penicillium canescence E2 and Aspergillus versicolor Z17 hydrolyzed cellulose of untreated wheat straw to reducible sugars by 46-52%, and to glucose by 22-27%. However the thermophilic enzyme preparations from the thermophilic A.versicolor strains conducted the process at 600C higher by 100C as compared to mesophlic analogue. Rate of hydrolyses of the pretreated substrate by the same enzyme preparations to reducible sugars and glucose conducted at optimum for their action 60 and 500C was 52-61% and 29-33%, correspondingly. Thus, maximum yield of glucose and reducible sugars form untreated and pretreated wheat straw was achieved at higher temperature (600C) by enzyme preparations from thermophilic strain, which gives advantage for their industrial application.

Keywords: cellulase/xylanase, cellulose hydrolysis, microscopic fungi, thermophilic strain

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Authors: Jana Petrů, Tomáš Zlámal, Robert Čep, Lenka Čepová

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This article is focused on the thermal spray coating machining issue. Those are irreplaceable in many areas of nowadays industrial branches such as aerospace industry, mostly thanks to their excellent qualities in production and also in renovation of machinery parts. The principals of thermal spraying and elementary diversification are described in introduction. Plasma coating method of composite materials -cermets- is described more thoroughly. The second part describes thermal spray coating machining and grinding in detail. This part contains suggestion of appropriate grinding tool and assessment of cutting conditions used for grinding a given part. Conclusion describes a problem which occurred while grinding a cermet thermal spray coating with a specially designed grindstone and a way to solve this problem.

Keywords: coating, aerospace, plasma, grinding

Procedia PDF Downloads 552

Authors: Josephine Aikpitanyi, Friday Okonofua, Lorrettantoimo, Sandy Tubeuf

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Every day, 800 women die from conditions related to pregnancy and childbirth, resulting in an estimated 300,000 maternal deaths worldwide per year. Over 99 percent of all maternal deaths occur in developing countries, with more than half of them occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria being the most populous nation in sub-Saharan Africa bears a significant burden of worsening maternal and child health outcomes with a maternal mortality rate of 917 per 100,000 live births and child mortality rate of 117 per 1,000 live births. While several studies have documented that financial barriers disproportionately discourage poor women from seeking needed maternal and child healthcare, other studies have indicated otherwise. Evidence shows that there are instances where health facilities with skilled healthcare providers exist, and yet maternal, and child health outcomes remain abysmally low, indicating the presence of non-cognitive and behavioural factors that may affect the utilization of healthcare services. This study investigated the influence of locus of control and self-esteem on utilization of maternal and child healthcare services in Nigeria. Specifically, it explored the differences in utilization of antenatal care, skilled birth care, postnatal care, and child vaccination by women having an internal and external locus of control and women having high and low self-esteem. We collected information on non-cognitive traits of 1411 randomly selected women, along with information on utilization of the various indicators of maternal and child healthcare. Estimating logistic regression models for various components of healthcare services utilization, we found that women’s internal locus of control was a significant predictor of utilization of antenatal care, skilled birth care, and completion of child vaccination. We also found that having high self-esteem was a significant predictor of utilization of antenatal care, postnatal care, and completion of child vaccination after adjusting for other control variables. By improving our understanding of non-cognitive traits as possible barriers to maternal and child healthcare utilization, our findings offer important insights for enhancing participant engagement in intervention programs that are initiated to improve maternal and child health outcomes in low-and-middle-income countries.

Keywords: behavioural economics, health-seeking behaviour, locus of control and self-esteem, maternal and child healthcare, non-cognitive traits, and healthcare utilization

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Authors: Agbortoko Manyigbe Ayuk Nkem, Eno Cynthia Osuh

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This paper sets to examine the relationship between climate change and urban livelihood through a vulnerability assessment of the urban poor in Douala. Urban development in Douala places priority towards industrial and city-centre development with little focus on the urban poor in terms of housing units and areas of sustenance. With the high rate of urbanisation and increased land prices, the urban poor are forced to occupy marginal lands which are mainly wetlands, wastelands and along abandoned neighbourhoods prone to natural hazards. Due to climate change and its effects, these wetlands are constantly flooded thereby destroying homes, properties, and crops. Also, most of these urban dwellers have found solace in urban agriculture as a means for survival. However, since agriculture in tropical regions like Cameroon depends largely on seasonal rainfall, the changes in rainfall pattern has led to misplaced periods for crop planting and a huge wastage of resources as rainfall becomes very unreliable with increased temperature levels. Data for the study was obtained from both primary and secondary sources. Secondary sources included published materials related to climate change and vulnerability. Primary data was obtained through focus-group discussions with some urban farmers while a stratified sampling of residents within marginal lands was done. Each stratum was randomly sampled to obtain information on different stressors related to climate change and their effect on livelihood. Findings proved that the high rate of rural-urban migration into Douala has led to increased prevalence of the urban poor and their vulnerability to climate change as evident in their constant fight against flood from unexpected sea level rise and irregular rainfall pattern for urban agriculture. The study also proved that women were most vulnerable as they depended solely on urban agriculture and its related activities like retailing agricultural products in different urban markets which to them serves as a main source of income in the attainment of basic needs for the family. Adaptation measures include the constant use of sand bags, raised makeshifts as well as cultivation along streams, planting after evidence of constant rainfall has become paramount for sustainability.

Keywords: adaptation, Douala, Cameroon, climate change, development, livelihood, vulnerability

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Authors: Raghda Ahmed El-Nagar

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Oil spills are one of the most serious environmental issues that have occurred during the production and transportation of petroleum crude oil. Chemical asphaltene dispersants are hazardous to the marine environment, so Ionic liquids (ILs) as asphaltene dispersants are a critical area of study. In this work, different aryl imidazolium ionic liquids were synthesized with high yield and elucidated via tools of analysis (Elemental analysis, FT-IR, and 1H-NMR). Thermogravimetric analysis confirmed that the prepared ILs posses high thermal stability. The critical micelle concentration (CMC), surface tension, and emulsification index were investigated. Evaluation of synthesized ILs as asphaltene dispersants were assessed at various concentrations, and data reveals high dispersion efficiency.

Keywords: ionic liquids, oil spill, asphaltene dispersants, CMC, efficiency

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Authors: Hyemi Kim, Jay Kim, Kyunghoon Han, Ra-Yeong Choi, In-Woo Kim, Hyung Joo Suh, Ki-Bae Hong, Sung Hee Han

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Chitosan is used in various industries such as food and medical care because it is known to have various functions such as anti-obesity, anti-inflammatory and anti-cancer benefits. Most of the commercial chitosan is extracted from crustaceans. As the harvest rate of snow crabs and red snow crabs decreases and safety issues arise due to environmental pollution, research is underway to extract chitosan from insects. In this study, we used Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to predict the optimal conditions to produce chitosan oligosaccharides from mealworms (MCOS), which can be absorbed through the intestine as low-molecular-weight chitosan. The experimentally confirmed optimal conditions for MCOS production using chitosanase were found to be a substrate concentration of 2.5%, enzyme addition of 30 mg/g and a reaction time of 6 hours. The chemical structure and physicochemical properties of the produced MCOS were measured using MALDI-TOF mass spectra and FTIR spectra. The MALDI-TOF mass spectra revealed peaks corresponding to the dimer (375.045), trimer (525.214), tetramer (693.243), pentamer (826.296), and hexamer (987.360). In the FTIR spectra, commercial chitosan oligosaccharides exhibited a weak peak pattern at 3500-2500 cm-1, unlike chitosan or chitosan oligosaccharides. There was a difference in the peak at 3200~3500 cm-1, where different vibrations corresponding to OH and amine groups overlapped. Chitosan, chitosan oligosaccharide, and commercial chitosan oligosaccharide showed peaks at 2849, 2884, and 2885 cm-1, respectively, attributed to the absorption of the C-H stretching vibration of methyl or methine. The amide I, amide II, and amide III bands of chitosan, chitosan oligosaccharide, and commercial chitosan oligosaccharide exhibited peaks at 1620/1620/1602, 1553/1555/1505, and 1310/1309/1317 cm-1, respectively. Furthermore, the solubility of MCOS was 45.15±3.43, water binding capacity (WBC) was 299.25±4.57, and fat binding capacity (FBC) was 325.61±2.28 and the solubility of commercial chitosan oligosaccharides was 49.04±9.52, WBC was 280.55±0.50, and FBC was 157.22±18.15. Thus, the characteristics of MCOS and commercial chitosan oligosaccharides are similar. The results of investigating the impact of chitosan oligosaccharide on the proliferation of probiotics revealed increased growth in L. casei, L. acidophilus, and Bif. Bifidum. Therefore, the major short-chain fatty acids produced by gut microorganisms, such as acetic acid, propionic acid, and butyric acid, increased within 24 hours of adding 1% (p<0.01) and 2% (p<0.001) MCOS. The impact of MCOS on the overall gut microbiota was assessed, revealing that the Chao1 index did not show significant differences, but the Simpson index decreased in a concentration-dependent manner, indicating a higher species diversity. The addition of MCOS resulted in changes in the overall microbial composition, with an increase in Firmicutes and Verrucomicrobia (p<0.05) compared to the control group, while Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria (p<0.05) decreased. At the genus level, changes in microbiota due to MCOS supplementation showed an increase in beneficial bacteria like lactobacillus, Romboutsia, Turicibacter, and Akkermansia (p<0.0001) while harmful bacteria like Enterococcus, Morganella, Proterus, and Bacteroides (p<0.0001) decreased. In this study, chitosan oligosaccharides were successfully produced under established conditions from mealworms, and these chitosan oligosaccharides are expected to have prebiotic effects, similar to those obtained from crabs.

Keywords: mealworms, chitosan, chitosan oligosaccharide, prebiotics

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Authors: Luisa Barreira, Viana Castaneda, Maria J. Rodrigues, Florinda Gama, Tamara Santos, Marta Oliveira, Catarina Pereira, Maribela Pestana, Pedro Correia, Miguel Salazar, Carla Nunes, Luisa Custodio, Joao Varela

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In the last century, the world witnessed an exponential demographic increase that has put an enormous pressure on agriculture and food production. Associated also with climate changes, there has been a decrease in the amount of available freshwater and an increased salinization of soils which can affect the production of most food crops. Halophytes, however, are plants able to withstand high salinities while maintaining a good growth productivity. To cope with the excess salt, they produce secondary metabolites (e.g. vitamins and phenolic compounds) which, along with the natural presence of some minerals, makes them not only nutritionally rich but also functional foods. Some halophytes, as quinoa or salicornia, are already used in some countries, mostly as gourmet food. Hydroponic cultivation of halophytes using seawater or diluted seawater for watering can decrease the pressure on freshwater resources while producing a nutritional and functional food. The XtremeGourmet project funded by the EU aims to develop and optimize the production of different halophytes by hydroponics. One of the more specific objectives of this project is the study of halophytes’ productivity and chemical composition under different abiotic conditions, e.g. salt and nutrient concentration and light intensity. Three species of halophytes commonly occurring in saltmarshes of the South of Portugal (Inula chrithmoides, Salicornia ramosissima and Mesembryanthemum nodiflorum) were cultivated using hydroponics under different salinities, ranging from 5 to 45 dS/m. For each condition, several parameters were assessed namely: total and commercial productivity, electrical conductivity, total soluble solids, proximal composition, mineral profile, total phenolics, flavonoids and condensed tannins content and antioxidant activity. Results show that productivity was significantly reduced for all plants with increasing salinity up to salinity 29 dS/m and remained low onwards. Oppositely, the electrical conductivity and the total soluble solids content of the produced plants increased with salinity, reaching a plateau at 29 dS/m. It seems that plants reflect the salt concentration of the water up to some point, being able to regulate their salt content for higher salinities. The same tendency was observed for the ash content of these plants, which is related to the mineral uptake from the cultivating media and the plants’ capacity to both accumulate and regulate ions’ concentration in their tissues. Nonetheless, this comes with a metabolic cost which is observed by a decrease in productivity. The mineral profile of these plants shows high concentrations of sodium but also high amounts of potassium. In what concerns the microelements, these plants appear to be a good source of manganese and iron and the low amounts of toxic metals account for their safe consumption in moderate amounts. Concerning the phenolics composition, plants presented moderate concentrations of phenolics but high amounts of condensed tannins, particularly I. crithmoides which accounts for its characteristic sour and spicy taste. Contrary to some studies in which higher amounts of phenolics were found in plants cultivated under higher salinities, in this study, the highest amount of phenolic compounds were found in plants grown at the lowest or intermediate salinities. Nonetheless, there was a positive correlation between the concentration of these compounds and the antioxidant capacity of the plants’ extracts.

Keywords: functional properties, halophytes, hydroponics, nutritional composition, salinity effect

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Authors: J. R. Wang, S. W. Chen, Y. Chiang, W. S. Hsu, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih

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In this research, the HABIT analysis methodology was established for Maanshan nuclear power plant (NPP). The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), reports, and other data were used in this study. To evaluate the control room habitability under the CO₂ storage burst, the HABIT methodology was used to perform this analysis. The HABIT result was below the R.G. 1.78 failure criteria. This indicates that Maanshan NPP habitability can be maintained. Additionally, the sensitivity study of the parameters (wind speed, atmospheric stability classification, air temperature, and control room intake flow rate) was also performed in this research.

Keywords: PWR, HABIT, Habitability, Maanshan

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Authors: Y. Chiang, W. Y. Li, J. R. Wang, S. W. Chen, W. S. Hsu, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih

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In this research, the HABIT code was used to estimate the concentration under the CO₂ and H₂SO₄ storage burst conditions for Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP). The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) and reports were used in this research. In addition, to evaluate the control room habitability for these cases, the HABIT analysis results were compared with the R.G. 1.78 failure criteria. The comparison results show that the HABIT results are below the criteria. Additionally, some sensitivity studies (stability classification, wind speed and control room intake rate) were performed in this study.

Keywords: BWR, HABIT, habitability, Kuosheng

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Authors: Harshan Tee Pee

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Climate elements include surface temperatures, rainfall patterns, humidity, type and amount of cloudiness, air pressure and wind speed and direction. Change in one element can have an impact on the regional climate. The scientific predictions indicate that global climate change will increase the number of extreme events, leading to more frequent natural hazards. Global warming is likely to intensify the risk of drought in certain parts and also leading to increased rainfall in some other parts. Drought is a slow advancing disaster and creeping phenomenon– which accumulate slowly over a long period of time. Droughts are naturally linked with aridity. But droughts occur over most parts of the world (both wet and humid regions) and create severe impacts on agriculture, basic household welfare and ecosystems. Drought condition occurs at least every three years in India. India is one among the most vulnerable drought prone countries in the world. The economic impacts resulting from extreme environmental events and disasters are huge as a result of disruption in many economic activities. The focus of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding about the distributional impacts of disaster, especially impact of drought on agricultural production and income through a panel study (drought year and one year after the drought) in Raikhel village, Maharashtra, India. The major findings of the study indicate that cultivating area as well as the number of cultivating households reduced after the drought, indicating a shift in the livelihood- households moved from agriculture to non-agriculture. Decline in the gross cropped area and production of various crops depended on the negative income from these crops in the previous agriculture season. All the landholding categories of households except landlords had negative income in the drought year and also the income disparities between the households were higher in that year. In the drought year, the cost of cultivation was higher for all the landholding categories due to the increased cost for irrigation and input cost. In the drought year, agriculture products (50 per cent of the total products) were used for household consumption rather than selling in the market. It is evident from the study that livelihood which was based on natural resources became less attractive to the people to due to the risk involved in it and people were moving to less risk livelihood for their sustenance.

Keywords: climate change, drought, agriculture economics, disaster impact

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Authors: Cheng-Yen Huang, Yu-Jen Shih, Ming-Chun Yen, Yao-Hui Huang

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This research developed a fluidized-bed homogeneous crystallization (FBHC) process to remove copper from synthetic wastewater in terms of recovery of highly pure malachite (Cu2(OH)2CO3) pellets. The experimental parameters of FBHC which included pH, molar ratio of copper to carbonate, copper loading, upper flowrate and bed height were tested in the absence of seed particles. Under optimized conditions, both the total copper removal (TR) and crystallization ratio (CR) reached 99%. The malachite crystals were characterized by XRD and SEM. FBHC was capable of treating concentrated copper (1600 ppm) wastewater and minimizing the sludge production.

Keywords: copper, carbonate, fluidized-bed, crystallization, malachite

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Authors: Loretta Baryeh

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Unprecedented disruptions to world economies unfolded consequently to the pandemic that hit the globe in 2020. The severe sickness with no cure at the time led to record deaths, and this affected everyday life for most people, stifling production, hospitality, entertainment, and most sectors of the economy. This paper was an extension of Baryeh 2021, that studied the pandemic effect on economic growth and if that was exacerbated by corruption. It was found that there was a positively high significant correlation between countries that reported high cases of the virus and countries that reported more deaths due to the virus. Furthermore, it was shown that countries with high COVID-19 cases were highly corrupt. Additionally, there was a negative association between high COVID-19 cases and economic development.

Keywords: COVID-19, corruption, economic, performance

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Authors: M. J. Baum, B. Gibbes, A. Grinham, S. Albert, D. Gale, P. Fisher

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Alongside the rapid expansion of Seawater Reverse Osmosis technologies there is a concurrent increase in the production of hypersaline brine by-products. To minimize environmental impact, these by-products are commonly disposed into open-coastal environments via submerged diffuser systems as inclined dense jet outfalls. Despite the widespread implementation of this process, diffuser designs are typically based on small-scale laboratory experiments under idealistic quiescent conditions. Studies concerning diffuser performance in the field are limited. A set of experiments were conducted to assess the near field characteristics of brine disposal at the Gold Coast Desalination Plant offshore multiport diffuser. The aim of the field experiments was to determine the trajectory and dilution characteristics of the plume under various discharge configurations with production ranging 66 – 100% of plant operative capacity. The field monitoring system employed an unprecedented static array of temperature and electrical conductivity sensors in a three-dimensional grid surrounding a single diffuser port. Complimenting these measurements, Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers were also deployed to record current variability over the depth of the water column and wave characteristics. Recorded data suggested the open-coastal environment was highly active over the experimental duration with ambient velocities ranging 0.0 – 0.5 m∙s^-1, with considerable variability over the depth of the water column observed. Variations in background electrical conductivity corresponding to salinity fluctuations of ± 1.7 g∙kg^-1 were also observed. Increases in salinity were detected during plant operation and appeared to be most pronounced 10 – 30 m from the diffuser, consistent with trajectory predictions described by existing literature. Plume trajectories and respective dilutions extrapolated from salinity data are compared with empirical scaling arguments. Discharge properties were found to adequately correlate with modelling projections. Temporal and spatial variation of background processes and their subsequent influence upon discharge outcomes are discussed with a view to incorporating the influence of waves and ambient currents in the design of brine outfalls into the future.

Keywords: brine disposal, desalination, field study, negatively buoyant discharge

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Authors: Tomasz Łęga, Marta Sosnowska, Mirosława Panasiuk, Lilit Hovhannisyan, Beata Gromadzka, Marcin Olszewski, Sabina Zoledowska, Dawid Nidzworski

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Toxic heavy metal ion contamination of industrial wastewater has recently become a significant environmental concern in many regions of the world. Although the majority of heavy metals are naturally occurring elements found on the earth's surface, anthropogenic activities such as mining and smelting, industrial production, and agricultural use of metals and metal-containing compounds are responsible for the majority of environmental contamination and human exposure. The permissible limits (ppm) for heavy metals in food, water and soil are frequently exceeded and considered hazardous to humans, other organisms, and the environment as a whole. Human exposure to highly nickel-polluted environments causes a variety of pathologic effects. In 2008, nickel received the shameful name of “Allergen of the Year” (GILLETTE 2008). According to the dermatologist, the frequency of nickel allergy is still growing, and it can’t be explained only by fashionable piercing and nickel devices used in medicine (like coronary stents and endoprostheses). Effective remediation methods for removing heavy metal ions from soil and water are becoming increasingly important. Among others, methods such as chemical precipitation, micro- and nanofiltration, membrane separation, conventional coagulation, electrodialysis, ion exchange, reverse and forward osmosis, photocatalysis and polymer or carbon nanocomposite absorbents have all been investigated so far. The importance of environmentally sustainable industrial production processes and the conservation of dwindling natural resources has highlighted the need for affordable, innovative biosorptive materials capable of recovering specific chemical elements from dilute aqueous solutions. The use of combinatorial phage display techniques for selecting and recognizing material-binding peptides with a selective affinity for any target, particularly inorganic materials, has gained considerable interest in the development of advanced bio- or nano-materials. However, due to the limitations of phage display libraries and the biopanning process, the accuracy of molecular recognition for inorganic materials remains a challenge. This study presents the isolation, identification and characterisation of metal binding phage clones that preferentially recover nickel.

Keywords: Heavy metal recovery, cleaning water, phage display, nickel

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Authors: Tewodros Abate Alemayehu, Abebe Getahun, Akewake Geremew, Dawit Solomon Demeke, John Recha, Dawit Solomon, Gebremedihin Ambaw, Fasil Dawit Moges

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The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of supplementation of zinc oxide (ZnO) nanoparticles and Mannan-oligosaccharide (MOS) on growth performance, feed utilization, fatty acid profiles, hematology, and intestinal morphology of Chamo strain Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus (L.) fry reared at optimal temperature (28.62 ± 0.11 ⁰C). Nile tilapia fry (initial weight 1.45 ± 0.01g) were fed basal diet/control diet (Diet-T1), 6 g kg-¹ MOS supplemented diet (Diet-T2), 4 mg ZnO-NPs supplemented diet (Diet-T3), 4 mg ZnO-Bulk supplemented diet (Diet-T4), a combination of 6 g kg-¹ MOS and 4 mg ZnO-Bulk supplemented diet (Diet-T5) and combination of 6 g kg-¹ MOS and 4 mg ZnO-NPs supplemented diet (Diet-T6). Randomly, duplicate aquariums for each diet were assigned and hand-fed to apparent satiation three times daily (08:00, 12:00, and 16:00) for 12 weeks. Fish fed MOS, ZnO-NPs, and a combination of MOS and ZnO-Bulk supplemented diet had higher weight gain, Daily Growth Rate (DGR), and Specific Growth Rate (SGR) than fish fed the basal diet and other feeding groups, although the effect was not significant. According to the GC analysis, Nile tilapia was supplemented with 6 g kg-¹ MOS, 4 mg ZnO-NPs, or a combination of ZnO-NPs, and MOS showed the highest content of EPA, DHA, and higher ratios of PUFA/SFA than other feeding groups. Mean villi length in the proximal and middle portion of the Nile tilapia intestine was affected significantly (p<0.05) by diet. Fish fed Diet-T2 and Diet-T3 had significantly higher villi lengths in the proximal and middle portions of the intestine compared to other feeding groups. The inclusion of additives significantly improved goblet numbers at the proximal, middle, and distal portions of the intestine. Supplementation of additives had also improved some hematological parameters compared with control groups. In conclusion, dietary supplementation of additives MOS and ZnO-NPs could confer benefits on growth performance, fatty acid profiles, hematology, and intestinal morphology of Chamo strain Nile tilapia.

Keywords: chamo strain nile tilapia, fatty acid profile, hematology, intestinal morphology, MOS, ZnO-Bulk, ZnO-NPs

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Authors: D. M. Samartsev, A. G. Copping

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As with all industries, architects are using increasing amounts of automation within practice, with approaches such as generative design and use of AI becoming more commonplace. However, the discourse on the rate at which the architectural design process is being automated is often personal and lacking in objective figures and measurements. This results in confusion between people and barriers to effective discourse on the subject, in turn limiting the ability of architects, policy makers, and members of the public in making informed decisions in the area of design automation. This paper proposes the use of a framework to quantify the progress of automation within the design process. The use of a reductionist analysis of the design process allows it to be quantified in a manner that enables direct comparison across different times, as well as locations and projects. The methodology is informed by the design of this framework – taking on the aspects of a systematic review but compressed in time to allow for an initial set of data to verify the validity of the framework. The use of such a framework of quantification enables various practical uses such as predicting the future of the architectural industry with regards to which tasks will be automated, as well as making more informed decisions on the subject of automation on multiple levels ranging from individual decisions to policy making from governing bodies such as the RIBA. This is achieved by analyzing the design process as a generic task that needs to be performed, then using principles of work breakdown systems to split the task of designing an entire building into smaller tasks, which can then be recursively split further as required. Each task is then assigned a series of milestones that allow for the objective analysis of its automation progress. By combining these two approaches it is possible to create a data structure that describes how much various parts of the architectural design process are automated. The data gathered in the paper serves the dual purposes of providing the framework with validation, as well as giving insights into the current situation of automation within the architectural design process. The framework can be interrogated in many ways and preliminary analysis shows that almost 40% of the architectural design process has been automated in some practical fashion at the time of writing, with the rate at which progress is made slowly increasing over the years, with the majority of tasks in the design process reaching a new milestone in automation in less than 6 years. Additionally, a further 15% of the design process is currently being automated in some way, with various products in development but not yet released to the industry. Lastly, various limitations of the framework are examined in this paper as well as further areas of study.

Keywords: analysis, architecture, automation, design process, technology

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Authors: S. Ben Fredj, H. Ghali, M. Ben Rejeb, S. Layouni, S. Khefacha, L. Dhidah, H. Said

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Background: The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) provides continuous care and uses a high level of treatment technologies. Although developed country hospitals allocate only 5–10% of beds in critical care areas, approximately 20% of nosocomial infections (NI) occur among patients treated in ICUs. Whereas in the developing countries the situation is still less accurate. The aim of our study is to assess mortality rates in ICUs and to determine its predictive factors. Methods: We carried out a nested case-control study in a 630-beds public tertiary care hospital in Eastern Tunisia. We included in the study all patients hospitalized for more than two days in the surgical or medical ICU during the entire period of the surveillance. Cases were patients who died before ICU discharge, whereas controls were patients who survived to discharge. NIs were diagnosed according to the definitions of ‘Comité Technique des Infections Nosocomiales et les Infections Liées aux Soins’ (CTINLIS, France). Data collection was based on the protocol of Rea-RAISIN 2009 of the National Institute for Health Watch (InVS, France). Results: Overall, 301 patients were enrolled from medical and surgical ICUs. The mean age was 44.8 ± 21.3 years. The crude ICU mortality rate was 20.6% (62/301). It was 35.8% for patients who acquired at least one NI during their stay in ICU and 16.2% for those without any NI, yielding an overall crude excess mortality rate of 19.6% (OR= 2.9, 95% CI, 1.6 to 5.3). The population-attributable fraction due to ICU-NI in patients who died before ICU discharge was 23.46% (95% CI, 13.43%–29.04%). Overall, 62 case-patients were compared to 239 control patients for the final analysis. Case patients and control patients differed by age (p=0,003), simplified acute physiology score II (p < 10-3), NI (p < 10-3), nosocomial pneumonia (p=0.008), infection upon admission (p=0.002), immunosuppression (p=0.006), days of intubation (p < 10-3), tracheostomy (p=0.004), days with urinary catheterization (p < 10-3), days with CVC ( p=0.03), and length of stay in ICU (p=0.003). Multivariate analysis demonstrated 3 factors: age older than 65 years (OR, 5.78 [95% CI, 2.03-16.05] p=0.001), duration of intubation 1-10 days (OR, 6.82 [95% CI, [1.90-24.45] p=0.003), duration of intubation > 10 days (OR, 11.11 [95% CI, [2.85-43.28] p=0.001), duration of CVC 1-7 days (OR, 6.85[95% CI, [1.71-27.45] p=0.007) and duration of CVC > 7 days (OR, 5.55[95% CI, [1.70-18.04] p=0.004). Conclusion: While surveillance provides important baseline data, successful trials with more active intervention protocols, adopting multimodal approach for the prevention of nosocomial infection incited us to think about the feasibility of similar trial in our context. Therefore, the implementation of an efficient infection control strategy is a crucial step to improve the quality of care.

Keywords: intensive care unit, mortality, nosocomial infection, risk factors

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Authors: Adewale Tolulope Irewale, Elias Emeka Elemike, Christian O. Dimkpa, Emeka Emmanuel Oguzie

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As the global population steadily approaches the 10billion mark, the world is currently faced with two major challenges among others – accessing sustainable and clean energy, and food security. Accessing cleaner and sustainable energy sources to drive global economy and technological advancement, and feeding the teeming human population require sustainable, innovative, and smart solutions. To solve the food production problem, producers have relied on fertilizers as a way of improving crop productivity. Commercial inorganic fertilizers, which is employed to boost agricultural food production, however, pose significant ecological sustainability and economic problems including soil and water pollution, reduced input efficiency, development of highly resistant weeds, micronutrient deficiency, soil degradation, and increased soil toxicity. These ecological and sustainability concerns have raised uncertainties about the continued effectiveness of conventional fertilizers. With the application of nanotechnology, plant biomass upcycling offers several advantages in greener energy production and sustainable agriculture through reduction of environmental pollution, increasing soil microbial activity, recycling carbon thereby reducing GHG emission, and so forth. This innovative technology has the potential for a circular economy and creating a sustainable agricultural practice. Nanomaterials have the potential to greatly enhance the quality and nutrient composition of organic biomass which in turn, allows for the conversion of biomass into nanofertilizers that are potentially more efficient. Water hyacinth plant harvested from an inland water at Warri, Delta State Nigeria were air-dried and milled into powder form. The dry biomass were used to prepare biochar at a pre-determined temperature in an oxygen deficient atmosphere. Physicochemical analysis of the resulting biochar was carried out to determine its porosity and general morphology using the Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM). The functional groups (-COOH, -OH, -NH2, -CN, -C=O) were assessed using the Fourier Transform InfraRed Spectroscopy (FTIR) while the heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb, Mg, Mn) were analyzed using Inductively Coupled Plasma – Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES). Impregnation of the biochar with nanonutrients were achieved under varied conditions of pH, temperature, nanonutrient concentrations and resident time to achieve optimum adsorption. Adsorption and desorption studies were carried out on the resulting nanofertilizer to determine kinetics for the potential nutrients’ bio-availability to plants when used as green fertilizers. Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) which is an aggressively invasive aquatic plant known for its rapid growth and profusion is being examined in this research to harness its biomass as a sustainable feedstock to formulate functionalized nano-biochar fertilizers, offering various benefits including water hyacinth biomass upcycling, improved nutrient delivery to crops and aquatic ecosystem remediation. Altogether, this work aims to create output values in the three dimensions of environmental, economic, and social benefits.

Keywords: biochar-based nanofertilizers, eichhornia crassipes, greener agriculture, sustainable ecosystem, water hyacinth

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Authors: Andrea M. Rivas-Castillo, Marlenne Gómez-Ramirez, Isela Rodríguez-Pozos, Norma G. Rojas-Avelizapa

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Spent catalysts are considered as hazardous residues of major concern, mainly due to the simultaneous presence of several metals in elevated concentrations. Although hydrometallurgical, pyrometallurgical and chelating agent methods are available to remove and recover some metals contained in spent catalysts; these procedures generate potentially hazardous wastes and the emission of harmful gases. Thus, biotechnological treatments are currently gaining importance to avoid the negative impacts of chemical technologies. To this end, diverse microorganisms have been used to assess the removal of metals from spent catalysts, comprising bacteria, archaea and fungi, whose resistance and metal uptake capabilities differ depending on the microorganism tested. Acidophilic sulfur oxidizing bacteria have been used to investigate the biotreatment and extraction of valuable metals from spent catalysts, namely Acidithiobacillus thiooxidans and Acidithiobacillus ferroxidans, as they present the ability to produce leaching agents such as sulfuric acid and sulfur oxidation intermediates. In the present work, the ability of A. thiooxidans DSM 26636 for the bioleaching of metals contained in five different spent catalysts was assessed by growing the culture in modified Starkey mineral medium (with elemental sulfur at 1%, w/v), and 1% (w/v) pulp density of each residue for up to 21 days at 30 °C and 150 rpm. Sulfur-oxidizing activity was periodically evaluated by determining sulfate concentration in the supernatants according to the NMX-k-436-1977 method. The production of sulfuric acid was assessed in the supernatants as well, by a titration procedure using NaOH 0.5 M with bromothymol blue as acid-base indicator, and by measuring pH using a digital potentiometer. On the other hand, Inductively Coupled Plasma - Optical Emission Spectrometry was used to analyze metal removal from the five different spent catalysts by A. thiooxidans DSM 26636. Results obtained show that, as could be expected, sulfuric acid production is directly related to the diminish of pH, and also to highest metal removal efficiencies. It was observed that Al and Fe are recurrently removed from refinery spent catalysts regardless of their origin and previous usage, although these removals may vary from 9.5 ± 2.2 to 439 ± 3.9 mg/kg for Al, and from 7.13 ± 0.31 to 368.4 ± 47.8 mg/kg for Fe, depending on the spent catalyst proven. Besides, bioleaching of metals like Mg, Ni, and Si was also obtained from automotive spent catalysts, which removals were of up to 66 ± 2.2, 6.2±0.07, and 100±2.4, respectively. Hence, the data presented here exhibit the potential of A. thiooxidans DSM 26636 for the simultaneous bioleaching of metals contained in spent catalysts from diverse provenance.

Keywords: bioleaching, metal removal, spent catalysts, Acidithiobacillus thiooxidans

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Authors: Feng-Hisang Lai

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CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) is conducted to numerically study the flow and heat transfer features of a two-pole, 6,080HP, 60Hz, 3,150V open drip-proof (ODP) motor. The stator and rotor cores in this high voltage induction motor are segmented with the use of spacers for cooling purposes, which leads to difficulties in meshing when the entire system is to be simulated. The system is divided into 4 parts, meshed separately and then combined using interfaces. The deviation between the CFD and experimental results in temperature and flow rate is less than 10%. The internal flow is further examined and a final design is proposed to reduce the winding temperature by 10 degrees.

Keywords: CFD, open drip proof, induction motor, cooling

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Authors: Thippharat Wongsilarat, Parichat tuntilanon, Chonlakan Prataksitorn

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Recurrent adverse drug reactions are harmful to patients with mild to fatal illnesses, and affect not only patients but also their relatives, and organizations. To compare safe use of medicine among patients before and after using the recurrent adverse drug reaction prevention program . Quasi-experimental research with the target population of 598 patients with drug allergy history. Data were collected through an observation form tested for its validity by three experts (IOC = 0.87), and analyzed with a descriptive statistic (percentage). The research was conducted jointly with a multidisciplinary team to analyze and determine the weak points and strong points in the recurrent adverse drug reaction prevention system during the past three years, and 546, 329, and 498 incidences, respectively, were found. Of these, 379, 279, and 302 incidences, or 69.4; 84.80; and 60.64 percent of the patients with drug allergy history, respectively, were found to have caused by incomplete warning system. In addition, differences in practice in caring for patients with drug allergy history were found that did not cover all the steps of the patient care process, especially a lack of repeated checking, and a lack of communication between the multidisciplinary team members. Therefore, the recurrent adverse drug reaction prevention program was developed with complete warning points in the information technology system, the repeated checking step, and communication among related multidisciplinary team members starting from the hospital identity card room, patient history recording officers, nurses, physicians who prescribe the drugs, and pharmacists. Including in the system were surveillance, nursing, recording, and linking the data to referring units. There were also training concerning adverse drug reactions by pharmacists, monthly meetings to explain the process to practice personnel, creating safety culture, random checking of practice, motivational encouragement, supervising, controlling, following up, and evaluating the practice. The rate of prescribing drugs to which patients were allergic per 1,000 prescriptions was 0.08, and the incidence rate of recurrent drug reaction per 1,000 prescriptions was 0. Surveillance of recurrent adverse drug reactions covering all service providing points can ensure safe use of medicine for patients.

Keywords: recurrent drug, adverse reaction, safety, use of medicine

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Authors: Sang-Woo Han, Jong-Shik Shin

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w-Transaminase (w-TA) is broadly used for synthesizing chiral amines with a high enantiopurity. However, the reaction mechanism of w-TA has been not well studied, contrary to a-transaminase (a-TA) such as AspTA. Here, we propose in silico model on the reaction mechanism of w-TA. Based on the modeling results which showed large free energy gaps between external aldimine and quinonoid on deamination (or ketimine and quinonoid on amination), withdrawal of Ca-H seemed as a critical step which determines the reaction rate on both amination and deamination reactions, which is consistent with previous researches. Hyperconjugation was also observed in both external aldimine and ketimine which weakens Ca-H bond to elevate Ca-H abstraction.

Keywords: computational modeling, reaction intermediates, w-transaminase, in silico model

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Authors: Alexander Zotov, Ilkin Osmanov, Emil Sakharov, Oleg Shelest, Aleksander Troitskiy, Robert Khabazov

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Objective: Thoracoscopic surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) includes two technologies in performing of operation. 1st strategy used is the AtriCure device (bipolar, nonirrigated, non clamping), 2nd strategy is- the Medtronic device (bipolar, irrigated, clamping). The study presents a comparative analysis of clinical outcomes of two strategies in thoracoscopic ablation of AF using AtriCure vs. Medtronic devices. Methods: In 2 center study, 123 patients underwent thoracoscopic ablation of AF for the period from 2016 to 2020. Patients were divided into two groups. The first group is represented by patients who applied the AtriCure device (N=63), and the second group is - the Medtronic device (N=60), respectively. Patients were comparable in age, gender, and initial severity of the condition. Among the patients, in group 1 were 65% males with a median age of 57 years, while in group 2 – 75% and 60 years, respectively. Group 1 included patients with paroxysmal form -14,3%, persistent form - 68,3%, long-standing persistent form – 17,5%, group 2 – 13,3%, 13,3% and 73,3% respectively. Median ejection fraction and indexed left atrial volume amounted in group 1 – 63% and 40,6 ml/m2, in group 2 - 56% and 40,5 ml/m2. In addition, group 1 consisted of 39,7% patients with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class II) and 4,8% with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class III), when in group 2 – 45% and 6,7%, respectively. Follow-up consisted of laboratory tests, chest Х-ray, ECG, 24-hour Holter monitor, and cardiopulmonary exercise test. Duration of freedom from AF, distant mortality rate, and prevalence of cerebrovascular events were compared between the two groups. Results: Exit block was achieved in all patients. According to the Clavien-Dindo classification of surgical complications fraction of adverse events was 14,3% and 16,7% (1st group and 2nd group, respectively). Mean follow-up period in the 1st group was 50,4 (31,8; 64,8) months, in 2nd group - 30,5 (14,1; 37,5) months (P=0,0001). In group 1 - total freedom of AF was in 73,3% of patients, among which 25% had additional antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) therapy or catheter ablation (CA), in group 2 – 90% and 18,3%, respectively (for total freedom of AF P<0,02). At follow-up, the distant mortality rate in the 1st group was – 4,8%, and in the 2nd – no fatal events. Prevalence of cerebrovascular events was higher in the 1st group than in the 2nd (6,7% vs. 1,7% respectively). Conclusions: Despite the relatively shorter follow-up of the 2nd group in the study, applying the strategy using the Medtronic device showed quite encouraging results. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy in the long-term period.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, clamping, ablation, thoracoscopic surgery

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Authors: A. H. Taghdisi, M. Mirmohammadi, S. Kamali

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Evening primrose (Oenothera biennis L.) is a biennial and herbaceous and one of the most important species of medicinal plants in the world. due to the production of unsaturated fatty acids such as linoleic acid, alpha-linolenic acid, etc. in its seeds and roots, and compounds such as kaempferol in its leaves, Evening primrose has important medicinal efficiency such as reducing premenstrual problems, acceleration of wound healing, inhibiting platelet aggregation, sedation of cardiovascular diseases, and treatment of viral infections. The sap of the plant is used to treat warts, and the plant itself is used as a charm against mental and spiritual diseases and poisonous animals. Its leaves have significant antibacterial activity against yellow staphylococci. It is also used in the treatment of poisoning, especially the toxication caused by the consumption of alcoholic beverages, in the treatment of arteriosclerosis and diseases caused by liver cell insufficiency. Low germination and production speed are the problems of evening primrose growth and propagation. In the present study, extracts were obtained from four components (flowers, stems, seeds, leaves) of the evening primrose plant using the Soxhlet apparatus. To measure the antibacterial properties against MDR bacteria, microbial methods, including dilution, cultivation on a plate containing nutrient agar culture medium, and disc diffusion in agar, were performed using Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli bacteria on all four extracts. The maximum antibacterial activity related to the dilution method was obtained in all extracts. In the plate culture method, antibacterial activity was obtained for all extracts in the nutrient agar medium. The maximum diameter of the non-growth halo was obtained in the disc diffusion method in agar in the leaf extract. The statistical analysis of the microbial part was done by one-way ANOVA test (SPSS). By comparing the amount of omega-3 in extracts of Iranian and foreign oils available in the market and the extracts extracted from evening primrose plant samples with gas chromatography, it is shown that the stem extract had the most omega-3 (oleic acid) and compared to the extract of the mentioned oils, it had the highest amount of omega-3 overall. Also, the amount of omega-3 in the extract of Iranian oils was much higher than in the extract of foreign oils. It should be noted that the extract of foreign oils had a more complete composition of omega-3 than the extract of Iranian oils.

Keywords: antibacterial activity, MDR bacteria, evening primrose, omega-3

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Authors: Taisiia Gorshkova

Abstract:

Since the 1980s, spatial correlation models have been used more often to model regional indicators. An increasingly popular method for studying regional indicators is modeling taking into account spatial relationships between objects that are part of the same economic zone. In 2000s the new class of model – spatial vector autoregressions was developed. The main difference between standard and spatial vector autoregressions is that in the spatial VAR (SpVAR), the values of indicators at time t may depend on the values of explanatory variables at the same time t in neighboring regions and on the values of explanatory variables at time t-k in neighboring regions. Thus, VAR is a special case of SpVAR in the absence of spatial lags, and the spatial panel data model is a special case of spatial VAR in the absence of time lags. Two specifications of SpVAR were applied to Russian regional data for 2000-2017. The values of GRP and regional CPI are used as endogenous variables. The lags of GRP, CPI and the unemployment rate were used as explanatory variables. For comparison purposes, the standard VAR without spatial correlation was used as “naïve” model. In the first specification of SpVAR the unemployment rate and the values of depending variables, GRP and CPI, in neighboring regions at the same moment of time t were included in equations for GRP and CPI respectively. To account for the values of indicators in neighboring regions, the adjacency weight matrix is used, in which regions with a common sea or land border are assigned a value of 1, and the rest - 0. In the second specification the values of depending variables in neighboring regions at the moment of time t were replaced by these values in the previous time moment t-1. According to the results obtained, when inflation and GRP of neighbors are added into the model both inflation and GRP are significantly affected by their previous values, and inflation is also positively affected by an increase in unemployment in the previous period and negatively affected by an increase in GRP in the previous period, which corresponds to economic theory. GRP is not affected by either the inflation lag or the unemployment lag. When the model takes into account lagged values of GRP and inflation in neighboring regions, the results of inflation modeling are practically unchanged: all indicators except the unemployment lag are significant at a 5% significance level. For GRP, in turn, GRP lags in neighboring regions also become significant at a 5% significance level. For both spatial and “naïve” VARs the RMSE were calculated. The minimum RMSE are obtained via SpVAR with lagged explanatory variables. Thus, according to the results of the study, it can be concluded that SpVARs can accurately model both the actual values of macro indicators (particularly CPI and GRP) and the general situation in the regions

Keywords: forecasting, regional data, spatial econometrics, vector autoregression

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