Search results for: warehouse failure risk

Authors: Rahmoune Abdelhaq

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Systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability. In this work, we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system. We construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages. We then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system — including its level of capitalization, the degree to which banks are connected, the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system — and analyses the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of contagious (knock-on) defaults. First, we find that the better-capitalized banks are, the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non-linear. Second, the effect of the degree of connectivity is non-monotonic, that is, initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect; but after a certain threshold value, connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks. Third, the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock-on default, even if banks hold capital against such exposures. Fourth, more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk, all else equal. In an extension to the main analysis, we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tier) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out. This paper also discusses why bank risk management is needed to get the optimal one.

Keywords: financial stability, contagion, liquidity risk, optimal risk

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Authors: Hongmeng Su, Luyu Zhao, Yanyan Qian, Hong Fan

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Aim: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors that endanger human health seriously. RNA methylation, especially N6-methyladenosine (m⁶A) and 5-methylcytosine (m⁵C), a crucial epigenetic transcriptional regulatory mechanism, plays an important role in tumorigenesis, progression and prognosis. This research aims to systematically evaluate the prognostic value of m⁶A and m⁵C modulators in HCC patients. Methods: Twenty-four modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C were candidates to analyze their expression level and their contribution to predict the prognosis of HCC. Consensus clustering analysis was applied to classify HCC patients. Cox and LASSO regression were used to construct the risk model. According to the risk score, HCC patients were divided into high-risk and low/medium-risk groups. The clinical pathology factors of HCC patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: The HCC patients were classified into 2 clusters with significant differences in overall survival and clinical characteristics. Nine-gene risk model was constructed including METTL3, VIRMA, YTHDF1, YTHDF2, NOP2, NSUN4, NSUN5, DNMT3A and ALYREF. It was indicated that the risk score could serve as an independent prognostic factor for patients with HCC. Conclusion: This study constructed a Nine-gene risk model by modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C and investigated its effect on the clinical prognosis of HCC. This model may provide important consideration for the therapeutic strategy and prognosis evaluation analysis of patients with HCC.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, m⁶A, m⁵C, prognosis, RNA methylation

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Authors: Ezeabasili Chibuike Patrick

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The complex situation of construction industries in Nigeria and the risk of failures involved includes cost overrun, time overrun, Corruption, Government influence, Subcontractor challenges, Political influence and Instability, Cultural differences, Human resources deficiencies, cash flow Challenges, foreign exchange issues, inadequate design, Safety, low productivity, late payment, Quality control issues, project management issues, Environmental issues, Force majeure Competition amongst others has made the industry prone to risk and failures. Good project management remains effective in improving decision-making, which minimizes these risk events. This study was done to address these project risks and good decision-making to avert them. A mixed-method approach to research was used to do this study. Data collected by questionnaires and interviews on thirty-two (32) construction professionals was used in analyses to aid the knowledge and management of risks that were identified. The study revealed that there is no good risk management expertise in Nigeria. Also, that the economic/political situation and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has added to the risk and poor management strategies. The contingency theory and cost has therefore surfaced to be the most strategic management method used to reduce these risk issues and they seem to be very effective.

Keywords: strategies, risk management, contingency theory, Nigeria

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Authors: Mohamed Osama Hassaan

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Recent earthquakes have demonstrated the vulnerability of older reinforced concrete buildings to fail under imposed seismic loads. Accordingly, the need to strengthen existing reinforced concrete structures, mainly columns, to resist high seismic loads has increased. Conventional strengthening techniques such as using steel plates, steel angles and concrete overlay are used to achieve the required increase in strength or ductility. However, techniques using advanced composite materials are established. The column's splice zone is the most critical zone that failed under seismic loads. There are three types of splice zone failure that can be observed under seismic action, namely, Failure of the flexural plastic hinge region, shear failure and failure due to short lap splice. A lapped splice transfers the force from one bar to another through the concrete surrounding both bars. At any point along the splice, force is transferred from one bar by a bond to the surrounding concrete and also by a bond to the other bar of the pair forming the splice. The integrity of the lap splice depends on the development of adequate bond length. The R.C. columns built in seismic regions are expected to undergo a large number of inelastic deformation cycles while maintaining the overall strength and stability of the structure. This can be ensured by proper confinement of the concrete core. The last type of failure is focused in this research. There are insufficient studies that address the problem of strengthening existing reinforced concrete columns at splice zone through confinement with “advanced composite materials". Accordingly, more investigation regarding the seismic behavior of strengthened reinforced concrete columns using the new generation of composite materials such as (Carbon fiber polymer), (Glass fiber polymer), (Armiad fiber polymer).

Keywords: strengthening, columns, advanced composite materials, earthquakes

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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All along the length of the supply chain, fresh food firms face the challenge of managing both product quality, due to the perishable nature of the products, and product cost. This paper develops a method to assist logistics managers upstream in the fresh food supply chain in making cost optimized decisions regarding transportation, with the objective of minimizing the total cost while maintaining the quality of food products above acceptable levels. Considering the case of multiple fresh food products collected from multiple farms being transported to a warehouse or a retailer, this study develops a total cost model that includes various costs incurred during transportation. The practical application of the model is illustrated by using several computational intelligence approaches including Genetic Algorithms (GA), Fuzzy Genetic Algorithms (FGA) as well as an improved Simulated Annealing (SA) procedure applied with a repair mechanism for efficiency benchmarking. We demonstrate the practical viability of these approaches by using a simulation study based on pertinent data and evaluate the simulation outcomes. The application of the proposed total cost model was demonstrated using three approaches of GA, FGA and SA with a repair mechanism. All three approaches are adoptable; however, based on the performance evaluation, it was evident that the FGA is more likely to produce a better performance than the other two approaches of GA and SA. This study provides a pragmatic approach for supporting logistics and supply chain practitioners in fresh food industry in making important decisions on the arrangements and procedures related to the transportation of multiple fresh food products to a warehouse from multiple farms in a cost-effective way without compromising product quality. This study extends the literature on cold supply chain management by investigating cost and quality optimization in a multi-product scenario from farms to a retailer and, minimizing cost by managing the quality above expected quality levels at delivery. The scalability of the proposed generic function enables the application to alternative situations in practice such as different storage environments and transportation conditions.

Keywords: cost optimization, food supply chain, fuzzy sets, genetic algorithms, product quality, transportation

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Authors: Khaled Alkadamani

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Using the simultaneous equations model, this paper examines the impact of capital requirements on bank risk-taking during the recent financial crisis. It also explores the relationship between capital and risk decisions and the impact of economic instability on this relationship. By analyzing the data of 20 Islamic commercial banks between 2004 and 2014 from four Middle East countries, the study concludes a positive effect of regulatory pressure on bank capital in Saudi Arabia and UAE and a negative effect in Jordan and Kuwait. Moreover, the results show a negative impact of regulatory pressure on bank risk taking in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and UAE. The findings reveal also that banks close to the minimum regulatory capital requirements improve their capital adequacy by increasing their capital and decreasing their risk taking. Furthermore, the results show that economic crisis negatively affects bank risk changes, suggesting that banks react to the impact of uncertainty by reducing their risk taking. Finally, the estimations show a negative correlation between banks profitability and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), implying that as more capital is set aside as a buffer for banks safety; it affects the performance of Islamic banks.

Keywords: bank capital, bank regulation, crisis, Islamic banks, risk taking

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

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When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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Authors: Ali Shubbar, Hasanain Alwan, Ee Yu Phur, John McLoughlin, Ameer Al-khaykan

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This paper aims to investigate the structural behaviour of RC beams with circular openings of different sizes and locations modelled using ABAQUS FEM software. Seven RC beams with the dimensions of 1200 mm×150 mm×150 mm were tested under three-point loading. Group A consists of three RC beams incorporating circular openings with diameters of 40 mm, 55 mm and 65 mm in the shear zone. However, Group B consists of three RC beams incorporating circular openings with diameters of 40 mm, 55 mm and 65 mm in the flexural zone. The final RC beam did not have any openings, to provide a control beam for comparison. The results show that increasing the diameter of the openings increases the maximum deflection and the ultimate failure load decreases relative to the control beam. In the shear zone, the presence of the openings caused an increase in the maximum deflection ranging between 4% and 22% and a decrease in the ultimate failure load of between 26% and 36% compared to the control beam. However, the presence of the openings in the flexural zone caused an increase in the maximum deflection of between 1.5% and 19.7% and a decrease in the ultimate failure load of between 6% and 13% relative to the control beam. In this study, the optimum location for placing circular openings was found to be in the flexural zone of the beam with a diameter of less than 30% of the depth of the beam.

Keywords: ultimate failure load, maximum deflection, shear zone and flexural zone

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

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To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

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This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Nana Gorgiladze, Tamar Gaprindashvili, Mikheil Shavdia, Zurab Pagava

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Introduction/Purpose Chemotherapy is a common treatment for breast cancer, but it can also cause damage to the heart and blood vessels. This damage, known as cancer therapy-related cardiovascular toxicity (CTR-CVT), can increase the risk of heart failure and death in breast cancer patients. The left ventricle is often affected by CTR-CVT, but the right ventricle (RV) may also be vulnerable to CTR-CVT and may show signs of dysfunction before the left ventricle. The study aims to investigate how the RV function changes during chemotherapy for breast cancer by using conventional echocardiographic and global longitudinal strain (GLS) techniques. By measuring the GLS strain of the RV, researchers tend to detect early signs of CTR-CVT and improve the management of breast cancer patients. Methods The study was conducted on 28 women with low cardiovascular risk who received anthracycline chemotherapy for breast cancer. Conventional 2D echocardiography (LVEF, RVS’, TAPSE) and speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) measurements of the left and right ventricles (LVGLS, RVGLS) were used to assess cardiac function before and after chemotherapy. All patients had normal LVEF at the beginning of the study. Cardiotoxicity was defined as a new LVEF reduction of 10 percentage points to an LVEF of 40-49% and/or a new decline in GLS of 15% from baseline, as proposed by the most recent cardio-oncology guideline. ResultsThe research found that the LVGLS decreased from -21.2%2.1% to -18.6%2.6% (t-test = -4.116; df = 54, p=0.001). The change in value LV-GLS was 2.6%3.0%. The mean percentage change of the LVGLS was 11,6%13,3%; p=0.001. Similarly, the right ventricular global longitudinal strain (RVGLS) decreased from -25.2%2.9% to -21.4%4.4% (t-test = -3.82; df = 54, p=0.001). The RV-GLS value of change was 3.8%3.6%. Likewise, the percentage decrease of the RVGLS was 15,0%14,3%, p=0.001.However, the measurements of the right ventricular systolic function (RVS) and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) were insignificant, and the left ventricular ejection fraction ( LVEF) remained unchanged.

Keywords: cardiotoxicity, chemotherapy, GLS, right ventricle

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Authors: Nadia Belu, Laurenţiu Mihai Ionescu, Agnieszka Misztal

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The automotive industry is one of the most important industries in the world that concerns not only the economy, but also the world culture. In the present financial and economic context, this field faces new challenges posed by the current crisis, companies must maintain product quality, deliver on time and at a competitive price in order to achieve customer satisfaction. Two of the most recommended techniques of quality management by specific standards of the automotive industry, in the product development, are Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Control Plan. FMEA is a methodology for risk management and quality improvement aimed at identifying potential causes of failure of products and processes, their quantification by risk assessment, ranking of the problems identified according to their importance, to the determination and implementation of corrective actions related. The companies use Control Plans realized using the results from FMEA to evaluate a process or product for strengths and weaknesses and to prevent problems before they occur. The Control Plans represent written descriptions of the systems used to control and minimize product and process variation. In addition Control Plans specify the process monitoring and control methods (for example Special Controls) used to control Special Characteristics. In this paper we propose a computer-aided solution with Genetic Algorithms in order to reduce the drafting of reports: FMEA analysis and Control Plan required in the manufacture of the product launch and improved knowledge development teams for future projects. The solution allows to the design team to introduce data entry required to FMEA. The actual analysis is performed using Genetic Algorithms to find optimum between RPN risk factor and cost of production. A feature of Genetic Algorithms is that they are used as a means of finding solutions for multi criteria optimization problems. In our case, along with three specific FMEA risk factors is considered and reduce production cost. Analysis tool will generate final reports for all FMEA processes. The data obtained in FMEA reports are automatically integrated with other entered parameters in Control Plan. Implementation of the solution is in the form of an application running in an intranet on two servers: one containing analysis and plan generation engine and the other containing the database where the initial parameters and results are stored. The results can then be used as starting solutions in the synthesis of other projects. The solution was applied to welding processes, laser cutting and bending to manufacture chassis for buses. Advantages of the solution are efficient elaboration of documents in the current project by automatically generating reports FMEA and Control Plan using multiple criteria optimization of production and build a solid knowledge base for future projects. The solution which we propose is a cheap alternative to other solutions on the market using Open Source tools in implementation.

Keywords: automotive industry, FMEA, control plan, automotive technology

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Authors: Weichao Yu, Kai Wen, Weihe Huang, Yang Yang, Jing Gong

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Metal-loss corrosion is a major threat to the safety and integrity of gas pipelines as it may result in the burst failures which can cause severe consequences that may include enormous economic losses as well as the personnel casualties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the corroding pipeline integrity and efficiency, considering the value of wall thickness, which plays an important role in the failure probability of corroding pipeline. Actually, the wall thickness is controlled during pipe purchase stage. For example, the API_SPEC_5L standard regulates the allowable tolerance of the wall thickness from the specified value during the pipe purchase. The allowable wall thickness tolerance will be used to determine the wall thickness distribution characteristic such as the mean value, standard deviation and distribution. Taking the uncertainties of the input variables in the burst limit-state function into account, the reliability approach rather than the deterministic approach will be used to evaluate the failure probability. Moreover, the cost of pipe purchase will be influenced by the allowable wall thickness tolerance. More strict control of the wall thickness usually corresponds to a higher pipe purchase cost. Therefore changing the wall thickness tolerance will vary both the probability of a burst failure and the cost of the pipe. This paper describes an approach to optimize the wall thickness tolerance considering both the safety and economy of corroding pipelines. In this paper, the corrosion burst limit-state function in Annex O of CSAZ662-7 is employed to evaluate the failure probability using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. By changing the allowable wall thickness tolerance, the parameters of the wall thickness distribution in the limit-state function will be changed. Using the reliability approach, the corresponding variations in the burst failure probability will be shown. On the other hand, changing the wall thickness tolerance will lead to a change in cost in pipe purchase. Using the variation of the failure probability and pipe cost caused by changing wall thickness tolerance specification, the optimal allowable tolerance can be obtained, and used to define pipe purchase specifications.

Keywords: allowable tolerance, corroding pipeline segment, operation cost, production cost, reliability approach

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis

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Authors: Jacek Kabzinski, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Ireneusz Majsterek

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The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing from year to year. Despite intensive research CRC etiology remains unknown. Studies suggest that at the basis of the process of carcinogenesis can lie reduced efficiency of DNA repair mechanisms, often caused by polymorphisms in DNA repair genes. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Pro242Arg of PolB gene and Arg780His of Lig3 gene and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 780Arg/His of Lig3 gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. On the basis of these results, we conclude that Lig3 gene polymorphism Arg780His may be associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Keywords: BER, colorectal cancer, PolB, Lig3, polymorphisms

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Authors: Ali Noorzad, Ehsan Badakhshan, Shima Zameni

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The present paper is focused on a generalized failure criterion for geomaterials with cross-anisotropy. The cyclic behavior of granular material primarily depends on the nature and arrangement of constituent particles, particle size, and shape that affect fabric anisotropy. To account for the influence of loading directions on strength variations, an anisotropic variable in terms of the invariants of the stress tensor and fabric into the failure criterion is proposed. In an extension to original CANAsand constitutive model two concepts namely critical state and compact state play paramount roles as all of the moduli and coefficients are related to these states. The applicability of the present model is evaluated through comparisons between the predicted and the measured results. All simulations have demonstrated that the proposed constitutive model is capable of modeling the cyclic behavior of sand with inherent anisotropy.

Keywords: fabric, cohesionless media, cyclic loading, critical state, compact state, CANAsand constitutive model

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Authors: Masuma Novak, Daniel Novak

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Background: Sweden along with other Nordic countries has the highest incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) worldwide. The trend is increasing globally. The diagnosis is often given at the emergency clinic when children arrive with cardinal symptom of T1DM. Children with T1DM are known to have an increased risk of microvascular- and macrovascular complications. A family history of cardiovascular complications may further increase their risk. Clinically evident diabetes-related vascular complications are however rarely visible in childhood and adolescence, whereby an intensive diabetes treatment and normoglycemic control is a goal for every child. This study is a risk evaluation of children with T1DM based on their family’s cardiovascular history. Method: Since 2005 the Better Diabetes Diagnosis (BDD) study is a nationwide Swedish prospective cohort study that recruits new-onset T1DM who are less than 18 years old at time of diagnosis. For each newly diagnosed child, blood samples are collected for specific HLA genotyping and islet autoantibody assays and their family’s cardiovascular history is evaluated. As part of the BDD study, during the years 2010-2013 all children diagnosed with T1DM at the Queen Silvia’s Children’s Hospital in Sweden were asked about their family’s cardiovascular history. Questions regarded maternal and paternal high blood pressure, stroke, and myocardial infarction before the age of 55 years, and hyperlipidemia were answered. A maximum risk score of eight was possible. All children are clinically observed prospectively for early functional and structural abnormalities such as protein uremia, blood pressure, and retinopathy. Results: A total of 275 children aged 0 to 18 years were diagnosed with T1DM at the Queen Silvia’s Children’s Hospital emergency clinic during this four year period. The participation rate was 99.7%. 26.4% of the children had no hereditary cardiovascular risk factors. 22.7 % had one risk factor and 18.8% had two risk factors. 14.8% had three risk factors. 9.7% had four risk factors and 7.5% had five risk factors or more. Conclusion: Among children with T1DM in Sweden there is a difference in hereditary cardiovascular risk factors. These results indicate that children with T1DM who also have increased hereditary cardiovascular risk factors should be monitored closely with early screening for functional and structural cardiovascular abnormalities. This is a very preliminary and ongoing study which will be complemented with the cardiovascular risk analysis among children without T1DM.

Keywords: children, type I diabetes, emergency clinic, CVD risk

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Authors: Edson Vengesai

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Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: D. Moser, D. Pinto, A. Cipriano

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A Disaster Management System (DMS) for countries with different disasters is very important. In the world different disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruption, fire or other natural or man-made disasters occurs and have an effect on the population. It is also possible that two or more disasters arisen at the same time, this means to handle multi-risk situations. To handle such a situation a Decision Support System (DSS) based on multiagents is a suitable architecture. The most known DMSs deal with one (in the case of an earthquake-tsunami combination with two) disaster and often with one particular disaster. Nevertheless, a DSS helps for a better realtime response. Analyze the existing systems in the literature and expand them for multi-risk disasters to construct a well-organized system is the proposal of our work. The here shown work is an approach of a multi-risk system, which needs an architecture, and well-defined aims. In this moment our study is a kind of case study to analyze the way we have to follow to create our proposed system in the future.

Keywords: decision support system, disaster management system, multi-risk, multiagent system

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Authors: Som Pal Baliyan

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The purpose of this quantitative study was to analyze farm management skills in broiler poultryproducers in Botswana. The study adopted a descriptive and correlation research design. The population of the study was the poultry farm operators who had been in broiler poultry farming at least for two years. Based on the information from literature, a questionnaire was constructed for data collection on seven areas of farm management skills namely; planning skills, accounting and financial management skills, production management skills, product procurement and marketing skills, decision making skills, risk management skills, and specific technical skills. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were accomplished by a panel of experts and by calculating the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, respectively. Data were collected through a survey of 60 randomly sampled poultry farm operators in Botswana. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistical tools whereby the level of farm management skills were determined by calculating means and standard deviations of the management skills among the broiler producers. The level of farm management skills in broilers producers was discussed. All the seven farm management skills were ranked based on their calculated means. The specific technical skills and risk management skills were the highest and the lowest ranked farm management skills, respectively.Findings revealed that the broiler producers had skills above the average level only in specific technical skills whereas the skill levels in the remaining six farm management skills under study were found below the average level. This prevailing low level of farm management skills can be justified asthe cause of failure or poor performance of the broiler poultry farms in Botswana. Therefore, in order to improve the efficiency and productivityin broiler production in the country, it was recommended that the broiler poultry producers should be adequately trained in areas of planning skills, financial management skills, production management skills, product procurement and marketing skills, decision making skills and risk management skills.

Keywords: poultry production, broiler production, management skills, levels of skills

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Authors: Olusola Joseph Adesina, Adebayo Adeyinka Salako

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The study adopted a descriptive research design. Two hundred (200) in-school adolescents were purposely selected in Afijio Local Government Area of Oyo State. Two hypotheses were also raised to pilot the study. The researchers developed an instrument which was validated by psychological experts, the instrument tagged counseling psychology and sexual risk behavior questionnaire (CPSRBQ)(r = 0.78). The results were analysed using t-test at 0.05 level of significance. The result showed that there is a significant relationship between counseling psychology and sexual risk behavior of in-school adolescents. It was also noticed that there is a significant difference in the sexual risk behavior of male and female adolescents. Based on the findings, it was recommended that more counselors are still needed in Nigeria schools. There is need for restructuring Nigeria Curriculum most especially on sex education and related diseases. Lastly, adolescents should be more exposed to seminars on HIV/AIDS, sex education enlightenment programmes and marital counseling.

Keywords: counseling psychology, sexual behavior, risk and adolescent, cognitive sciences

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Authors: Deepa Shokeen, Bani Tamber Aeri

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Non-communicable diseases in general and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in particular are a big cause of concern worldwide especially in fast growing economy like India. CVD is one of the leading causes of deaths in India. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease are now significant in all populations. At least one-third of all CVD is attributable to five risk factors: tobacco use, alcohol use, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and obesity. Methods: This article aspires to collate data gathered by relevant studies conducted after year 2000 and provide an overview of the prevalence of CVD in India and worldwide. Results: Studies show an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in India as compared to other developing and developed countries with recent trends showing incidence in younger age group. It is seen to affect almost all sections of the society from young to old and most affluent to least affluent. High blood pressure, high cholesterol, tobacco and alcohol use, as well as low vegetable and fruit intake, already figure among the top risk factors. Conclusion: The prevalence of risk factors associated with CVD has increased and will keep on increasing in India as indicated by studies in the last decade and as predicted by the projections for future estimates. Some major risks are modifiable in that they can be prevented, treated, and controlled. There are considerable health benefits at all ages, for both men and women, in stopping smoking, reducing cholesterol and blood pressure, eating a healthy diet and increasing physical activity.

Keywords: prevalence, cardiovascular disease, India, risk factors

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Authors: Armana Huq, Wahidur Rahman, Sanwar Kader

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Inland waterways in Bangladesh play an important role in providing comfortable and low-cost transportation. However, a maritime accident takes away many lives and creates unwanted hazards every year. This article deals with a comprehensive review of inland waterway accidents in Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes a comparative study between international and local inland research studies based on maritime accidents. Articles from inland waterway areas are analyzed in-depth to make a comprehensive overview of the nature of the academic work, accident and risk management process and different statistical analyses. It is found that empirical analysis based on the available statistical data dominates the research domain. For this study, major maritime accident-related works in the last four decades in Bangladesh (1981-2020) are being analyzed for preparing a bibliometric analysis. A study of maritime accidents of passenger's vessels during (1995-2005) indicates that the predominant causes of accidents in the inland waterways of Bangladesh are collision and adverse weather (77%), out of which collision due to human error alone stands (56%) of all accidents. Another study refers that the major causes of waterway accidents are the collision (60.3%) during 2005-2015. About 92% of this collision occurs due to direct contact with another vessel during this period. Rest 8% of the collision occurs by contact with permanent obstruction on waterway roots. The overall analysis of another study from the last 25 years (1995-2019) shows that one of the main types of accidents is collisions, with about 50.3% of accidents being caused by collisions. The other accident types are cyclone or storm (17%), overload (11.3%), physical failure (10.3%), excessive waves (5.1%), and others (6%). Very few notable works are available in testing or comparing the methods, proposing new methods for risk management, modeling, uncertainty treatment. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the evolution of marine accident-related research domain regarding inland waterway of Bangladesh and attempts to introduce new ideas and methods to abridge the gap between international and national inland maritime-related work domain which can be a catalyst for a safer and sustainable water transportation system in Bangladesh. Another fundamental objective of this paper is to navigate various national maritime authorities and international organizations to implement risk management processes for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas.

Keywords: inland waterways, safety, bibliometric analysis, risk management, accidents

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Micaela Demichela

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During the last decades, a number of food crises such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Mad-Cow disease, Dioxin in chicken food, Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), have certainly inflicted the reliability of the food industry. Consequently, the trend in applying different scientific methods of risk assessment in food safety has obtained more attentions in the academic and practice. However, lack of practical approach considering entire food supply chain is tangible in the academic literature. In this regard, this paper aims to apply risk assessment tool (FMEA) with integration of Human Factor along the entire supply chain of food production and test the method in a case study of Diary production, and analyze its results.

Keywords: FMEA, food supply chain, risk assessment, human factor

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Authors: Maha Mourad

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Higher education in any competitive European economy should serve the new information society by increasing the supply of good quality education services and by creating good international brands in the international higher education market. Hence, continuous risk management techniques through higher educational reforms programs became one of the top priorities within the European Union to control the quality of higher education. Risk is higher education is studies by several researchers who agreed that the risk in higher education has a direct influence on continuity of quality education and research contribution. The focus of this research is to highlights the Internal Quality Assurance (IQA) activities in the Polish higher education system as a risk management tool used to control the quality of education. This paper presents a qualitative empirical analysis in 5 different universities in Poland. In addition, it aims to help in finding global practical and create benchmark for policy makers concerning the risk management techniques based on the Polish experience.

Keywords: education development, quality assurance, sustainability, european higher education

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Authors: Yousaf Tariq

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There are many reasons which are involved in electronic equipment failure i.e. temperature, humidity, dust, smoke etc. Corrosive gases are also one of the factor which may involve in failure of equipment. Sensitivity of electronic equipment increased when “lead-free” regulation enforced on manufacturers. In data center, equipment like hard disk, servers, printed circuit boards etc. have been exposed to gaseous contamination due to increase in sensitivity. There is a worldwide standard to protect electronic industrial electronic from corrosive gases. It is well known as “ANSI/ISA S71.04 – 1985 - Environmental Conditions for Control Systems: Airborne Contaminants. ASHRAE Technical Committee (TC) 9.9 members also recommended ISA standard in their whitepaper on Gaseous and Particulate Contamination Guideline for data centers. TC 9.9 members represented some of the major IT equipment manufacturers e.g. IBM, HP, Cisco etc. As per standard practices, first step is to monitor air quality in data center. If contamination level shows more than G1, it means that gas-phase air filtration is required other than dust/smoke air filtration. It is important that outside fresh air entering in data center should have pressurization/re-circulated process in order to absorb corrosive gases and to maintain level within specified limit. It is also important that air quality monitoring should be conducted once in a year. Temperature and humidity should also be monitored as per standard practices to maintain level within specified limit.

Keywords: corrosive gases, corrosion, electronic equipment failure, ASHRAE, hard disk

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Authors: Beatrice Wamuyu Muchiri, Monika M. L. Dos Santos

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An increasingly recognised prevention approach for substance use entails reduction in risk factors and enhancement of promotive or protective factors in individuals and the environment surrounding them during their growth and development. However, in order to enhance the effectiveness of this approach, continuous study of risk aspects targeting different cultures, social groups and mixture of society has been recommended. This study evaluated the impact of potential risk and protective factors associated with family management and relations on adolescent substance abuse in South Africa. Exploratory analysis and cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression modelling was performed on the data while controlling for demographic and socio-economic characteristics on adolescent substance use. The most intensely used substances were tobacco, cannabis, cocaine, heroin and alcohol in decreasing order of use intensity. The specific protective or risk impact of family management or relations factors varied from substance to substance. Risk factors associated with demographic and socio-economic factors included being male, younger age, being in lower education grades, coloured ethnicity, adolescents from divorced parents and unemployed or fully employed mothers. Significant family relations risk and protective factors against substance use were classified as either family functioning and conflict or family bonding and support. Several family management factors, categorised as parental monitoring, discipline, behavioural control and rewards, demonstrated either risk or protective effect on adolescent substance use. Some factors had either interactive risk or protective impact on substance use or lost significance when analysed jointly with other factors such as controlled variables. Interaction amongst risk or protective factors as well as the type of substance should be considered when further considering interventions based on these risk or protective factors. Studies in other geographical regions, institutions and with better gender balance are recommended to improve upon the representativeness of the results. Several other considerations to be made when formulating interventions, the shortcomings of this study and possible improvements as well as future studies are also suggested.

Keywords: risk factors, protective factors, substance use, adolescents

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Authors: Ghorbanali Mohammadi

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Background: The objectives of this study were the association between physical and psychological risk factors for occupational lower back and neck pain among industrial workers. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 400 male workers of an industrial company over the previous 7days and 12 months. Data were collected using Nordic and third version of COPSOO questionnaires and QEC method for assessment of postures during the work. Results: The prevalence of LB and NP in the last 12 months is 58% and 52% respectively. The relationship between risk factors and low back/ neck pain in the last 12 months were cognitive demands (OR 995% CI 1.65) and (OR 995% CI 1.75); Influence at work (OR 995% CI 2.21) and (OR 995% CI 1.85); quality of leadership (OR 995% CI 2.42) and (OR 995% CI 2.09) was strongly correlated with complaints of low back and neck pains. Conclusion: Data of this study showed a higher prevalence of LBP and NP in the subjects. The results revealed that workers with work experience of more than 12 yrs. and who work more than 8 hrs. days with smoking habits had more probability to develop both LBP and NP.

Keywords: low back pain, neck pain, physical risk factors, psychological risk factors, QEC, COPSOQ III

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Authors: Bouharati Lokman, Bouharati Imen, Bouharati Khaoula, Bouharati Oussama, Bouharati Saddek

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Ionizing radiation exposure is an established cancer risk factor. Compared to other common environmental carcinogens, it is relatively easy to determine organ-specific radiation dose and, as a result, radiation dose-response relationships tend to be highly quantified. Nevertheless, there can be considerable uncertainty about questions of radiation-related cancer risk as they apply to risk protection and public policy, and the interpretations of interested parties can differ from one person to another. Examples of tools used in the analysis of the risk of developing cancer due to radiation are characterized by uncertainty. These uncertainties are related to the history of exposure and different assumptions involved in the calculation. We believe that the results of statistical calculations are characterized by uncertainty and imprecision. Having regard to the physiological variation from one person to another. In this study, we develop a tool based on fuzzy logic inference. As fuzzy logic deals with imprecise and uncertain, its application in this area is adequate. We propose a fuzzy system with three input variables (age, sex and body attainable cancer). The output variable expresses the risk of infringement rate of each organ. A base rule is established from recorded actual data. After successful simulation, this will instantly predict the risk of infringement rate of each body following chronic exposure to 0.1 Gy.

Keywords: radiation exposure, cancer, modeling, fuzzy logic

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