Search results for: probabilistic fracture mechanics

Authors: Phuong Nguyen

Abstract:

Along with the ongoing energy transition, the electrical power system is getting more vulnerable with the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). By replacing a large amount of fossil fuel-based power plants with RES, the rotating mass of the power grid is decreasing drastically, which has been reported by a number of system operators. This leads to a huge challenge for operators to secure the operation of their grids in all-time horizon ranges, from sub-seconds to minutes and even hours. There is a need to revise the grid capabilities in dealing with transient (angle) stability and voltage dynamics. While the traditional approaches relied on deterministic scenarios (worst-case scenarios), there is also a need to cover a whole range of probabilities regarding a wide range of uncertainties coming from massive RES units. To contribute to handle these issues, this paper aims to focus on developing a new analytical approach for transient stability.

Keywords: transient stability, uncertainties, renewable energy sources, analytical approach

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Authors: Wanatchapong Kongkaew

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This paper proposes an application of probabilistic technique, namely Gaussian process regression, for estimating an optimal sequence of the single machine with total weighted tardiness (SMTWT) scheduling problem. In this work, the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model is utilized to predict an optimal sequence of the SMTWT problem, and its solution is improved by using an iterated local search based on simulated annealing scheme, called GPRISA algorithm. The results show that the proposed GPRISA method achieves a very good performance and a reasonable trade-off between solution quality and time consumption. Moreover, in the comparison of deviation from the best-known solution, the proposed mechanism noticeably outperforms the recently existing approaches.

Keywords: Gaussian process regression, iterated local search, simulated annealing, single machine total weighted tardiness

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Authors: C. Y. Ng, A. M. Johan, A. E. Kajuputra

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Wave-in-deck phenomenon for fixed jacket platforms at shallow water condition has been reported as a notable risk to the workability and reliability of the platform. Reduction in reservoir pressure, due to the extraction of hydrocarbon for an extended period of time, has caused the occurrence of seabed subsidence. Platform experiencing subsidence promotes reduction of air gaps, which eventually allows the waves to attack the bottom decks. The impact of the wave-in-deck generates additional loads to the structure and therefore increases the values of the moment arms. Higher moment arms trigger instability in terms of overturning, eventually decreases the reserve strength ratio (RSR) values of the structure. The mechanics of wave-in-decks, however, is still not well understood and have not been fully incorporated into the design codes and standards. Hence, it is necessary to revisit the current design codes and standards for platform design optimization. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of RSR due to wave-in-deck on four-legged jacket platforms in Malaysia. Base shear values with regards to calibration and modifications of wave characteristics were obtained using SESAM GeniE. Correspondingly, pushover analysis is conducted using USFOS to retrieve the RSR. The effects of the contributing factors i.e. the wave height, wave period and water depth with regards to the RSR and base shear values were analyzed and discussed. This research proposal is important in optimizing the design life of the existing and aging offshore structures. Outcomes of this research are expected to provide a proper evaluation of the wave-in-deck mechanics and in return contribute to the current mitigation strategies in managing the issue.

Keywords: wave-in-deck loads, wave effects, water depth, fixed jacket platforms

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Authors: Noushin Naraghi Araghi, M. Nawawi, Syed Mustafizur Rahman

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This paper presents the effect of Sumatra fault earthquakes on west Malaysia by calculating the peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA). PGA is calculated by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). A uniform catalog of earthquakes for the interest region has been provided. We used empirical relations to convert all magnitudes to Moment Magnitude. After eliminating foreshocks and aftershocks in order to achieve more reliable results, the completeness of the catalog and uncertainty of magnitudes have been estimated and seismicity parameters were calculated. Our seismic source model considers the Sumatran strike slip fault that is known historically to generate large earthquakes. The calculations were done using the logic tree method and four attenuation relationships and slip rates for different part of this fault. Seismic hazard assessment carried out for 48 grid points. Eventually, two seismic hazard maps based PGA for 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 year are presented.

Keywords: Sumatra fault, west Malaysia, PGA, seismic parameters

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Authors: Hadi Ghasemi, Mark Leonard, Spiliopoulos Spiro, Phil Cummins, Mathew Moihoi, Felix Taranu, Eric Buri, Chris Mckee

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In this study the level of seismic hazard in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) was calculated for return period of 475 years, using modeled seismic sources and assigned ground-motion equations. The calculations were performed for bedrock site conditions (Vs30=760 m/s). From the results it is evident that the seismic hazard reaches its maximum level (i.e. PGA≈1g for 475 yr return period) at the Huon Peninsula and southern New Britain regions. Disaggregation analysis revealed that moderate to large earthquakes occurring along the New Britain Trench mainly control the level of hazard at these locations. The open-source computer program OpenQuake developed by Global Earthquake Model foundation was used for the seismic hazard computations. It should be emphasized that the presented results are still preliminary and should not be interpreted as our final assessment of seismic hazard in PNG.

Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, Papua New Guinea, building code, OpenQuake

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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The outputs of non-linear feed-forward neural network are positive, which could be treated as probability when they are normalized to one. If we take Entropy-Based Principle into consideration, the outputs for each sample could be represented as the distribution of this sample for different clusters. Entropy-Based Principle is the principle with which we could estimate the unknown distribution under some limited conditions. As this paper defines two processes in Feed-Forward Neural Network, our limited condition is the abstracted features of samples which are worked out in the abstraction process. And the final outputs are the probability distribution for different clusters in the clustering process. As Entropy-Based Principle is considered into the feed-forward neural network, a clustering method is born. We have conducted some experiments on six open UCI data sets, comparing with a few baselines and applied purity as the measurement. The results illustrate that our method outperforms all the other baselines that are most popular clustering methods.

Keywords: feed-forward neural network, clustering, max-entropy principle, probabilistic models

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Authors: Manjinder Singh, Jasvinder Singh

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Existing theories of Titanic/Liberty ship, Sydney bridge accidents and practical experience generated an interest in developing weldments those has high toughness under sub-zero temperature conditions. The purpose was to protect the joint from undergoing DBT (Ductile to brittle transition), when ambient temperature reach sub-zero levels. Metallurgical improvement such as low carbonization or addition of deoxidization elements like Mn and Si was effective to prevent fracture in weldments (crack) at low temperature. In the present research, an attempt has been made to investigate the reason behind ductile to brittle transition of mild steel weldments when subjected to sub-zero temperatures and method of its mitigation. Nickel is added to weldments using manual metal arc welding (MMAW) preventing the DBT, but progressive reduction in charpy impact values as temperature is lowered. The variation in toughness with respect to nickel content being added to the weld pool is analyzed quantitatively to evaluate the rise in toughness value with increasing nickel amount. The impact performance of welded specimens was evaluated by Charpy V-notch impact tests at various temperatures (20 °C, 0 °C, -20 °C, -40 °C, -60 °C). Notch is made in the weldments, as notch sensitive failure is particularly likely to occur at zones of high stress concentration caused by a notch. Then the effect of nickel to weldments is investigated at various temperatures was studied by mechanical and metallurgical tests. It was noted that a large gain in impact toughness could be achieved by adding nickel content. The highest yield strength (462J) in combination with good impact toughness (over 220J at – 60 °C) was achieved with an alloying content of 16 wt. %nickel. Based on metallurgical behavior it was concluded that the weld metals solidify as austenite with increase in nickel. The microstructure was characterized using optical and high resolution SEM (scanning electron microscopy). At inter-dendritic regions mainly martensite was found. In dendrite core regions of the low carbon weld metals a mixture of upper bainite, lower bainite and a novel constituent coalesced bainite formed. Coalesced bainite was characterized by large bainitic ferrite grains with cementite precipitates and is believed to form when the bainite and martensite start temperatures are close to each other. Mechanical properties could be rationalized in terms of micro structural constituents as a function of nickel content.

Keywords: MMAW, Toughness, DBT, Notch, SEM, Coalesced bainite

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Authors: HoYoung Son, DongHoon Shin, WooYoung Jung

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This study presented the seismic fragility framework of concrete weir structure subjected to strong seismic ground motions and in particular, concrete aging condition of the weir structure was taken into account in this study. In order to understand the influence of concrete aging on the weir structure, by using probabilistic risk assessment, the analytical seismic fragility of the weir structure was derived for pre- and post-deterioration of concrete. The performance of concrete weir structure after five years was assumed for the concrete aging or deterioration, and according to after five years’ condition, the elastic modulus was simply reduced about one–tenth compared with initial condition of weir structures. A 2D nonlinear finite element analysis was performed considering the deterioration of concrete in weir structures using ABAQUS platform, a commercial structural analysis program. Simplified concrete degradation was resulted in the increase of almost 45% of the probability of failure at Limit State 3, in comparison to initial construction stage, by analyzing the seismic fragility.

Keywords: weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging

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Authors: A. T. Siacara, A. T. Beck, M. M. Futai

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This paper shows how accurately and efficiently reliability analyses of geotechnical installations can be performed by directly coupling geotechnical software with a reliability solver. An earth slope is used as the study object. The limit equilibrium method of Morgenstern-Price is used to calculate factors of safety and find the critical slip surface. The deterministic software package Seep/W and Slope/W is coupled with the StRAnD reliability software. Reliability indexes of critical probabilistic surfaces are evaluated by the first-order reliability methods (FORM). By means of sensitivity analysis, the effective cohesion (c') is found to be the most relevant uncertain geotechnical parameter for slope equilibrium. The slope was tested using different geometries, taking into account unsaturated soil properties. Finally, a critical slip surface, identified in terms of minimum factor of safety, is shown here not to be the critical surface in terms of reliability index.

Keywords: slope, unsaturated, reliability, safety, seepage

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Authors: Radek Novotny, Michal Novak, Daniela Marusakova, Monika Sipova, Hugo Fuentes, Peter Borst

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This research has been conducted within the European HORIZON 2020 project ECC-SMART. The main objective is to assess whether it is feasible to design and develop a small modular reactor (SMR) that would be cooled by supercritical water (SCW). One of the main objectives for material research concerns the corrosion of the candidate cladding materials. The experimental part has been conducted in support of the qualification procedure of the future SCW-SMR constructional materials. The last objective was to identify the gaps in current norms and guidelines. Apart from corrosion, resistance testing of candidate materials stresses corrosion cracking susceptibility tests have been performed in supercritical water. This paper describes part of these tests, in particular, those slow strain rate tensile loading applied for tangential ring shape specimens of two candidate materials, Alloy 800H and 310S stainless steel. These ring tensile tests are one the methods used for tensile testing of nuclear cladding. Here full circular heads with dimensions roughly equal to the inner diameter of the sample and the gage sections are placed in the parallel direction to the applied load. Slow strain rate tensile tests have been conducted in 380 or 500oC supercritical water applying two different elongation rates, 1x10-6 and 1x10-7 s-1. The effect of temperature and dissolved oxygen content on the SCC susceptibility of Alloy 800H and 310S stainless steel was investigated when two different temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen were applied in supercritical water. The post-fracture analysis includes fractographic analysis of the fracture surfaces using SEM as well as cross-sectional analysis on the occurrence of secondary cracks. Assessment of the effect of environment and dissolved oxygen content was by comparing to the results of the reference tests performed in air and N2 gas overpressure. The effect of high temperature on creep and its role in the initiation of SCC was assessed as well. It has been concluded that the applied test method could be very useful for the investigation of stress corrosion cracking susceptibility of candidate cladding materials in supercritical water.

Keywords: stress corrosion cracking, ring tensile tests, super-critical water, alloy 800H, 310S stainless steel

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Authors: Gaokai Liu

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The distribution of material grain sizes reflects the strength, fracture, corrosion and other properties, and the grain size can be acquired via the grain boundary. In recent years, the automatic grain boundary detection is widely required instead of complex experimental operations. In this paper, an effective solution is applied to acquire the grain boundary of material images. First, the initial superpixel segmentation result is obtained via a superpixel approach. Then, a region merging method is employed to merge adjacent regions based on certain similarity criterions, the experimental results show that the merging strategy improves the superpixel segmentation result on material datasets.

Keywords: grain boundary detection, image segmentation, material images, region merging

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Authors: G. M. Dominguez Almaraz, J. A. Ruiz Vilchez, M. A. Sanchez Miranda

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Ultrasonic fatigue tests have been carried out in the maraging 300 steel. Experimental results show that fatigue endurance under this modality of testing is closely related to the nature and geometrical properties of inclusions present in this alloy. A model was proposed to correlate the ultrasonic fatigue endurance with the nature and geometrical properties of the crack initiation inclusion. Scanning Electron Microscopy analyses were obtained on the fracture surfaces, in order to assess the crack initiation inclusion and to introduce these parameters in the proposed model, with good agreement for the fatigue life prediction.

Keywords: inclusions, ultrasonic fatigue, maraging 300 steel, crack initiation

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Authors: Adnan Zaid

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Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) may be defined as a degradation of the mechanical properties of a material under the combined action of a tensile stress and corrosive environment of the susceptible material. It is a harmful phenomenon which might cause catastrophic fracture without a sign of prior warning. In this paper, the stress corrosion cracking, SCC, process, the parameters affecting it, and the different damages caused by it are given and discussed. Utilization of shot peening as a mean of enhancing the resistance of materials to SCC is given and discussed. Finally, a method for improving materials resistance to SCC by grain refining its structure by some refining elements prior to usage is suggested.

Keywords: stress corrosion cracking, parameters, damages, treatment methods

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Authors: Semayat Fanta, P.M. Mohite, C.S. Upadhyay

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Damage meso-model for laminates is one of the most widely applicable approaches for the analysis of damage induced in laminated fiber-reinforced polymeric composites. Damage meso-model for laminates has been developed over the last three decades by many researchers in experimental, theoretical, and analytical methods that have been carried out in micromechanics as well as meso-mechanics analysis approaches. It has been fundamentally developed based on the micromechanical description that aims to predict the damage initiation and evolution until the failure of structure in various loading conditions. The current damage meso-model for laminates aimed to act as a bridge between micromechanics and macro-mechanics of the laminated composite structure. This model considers two meso-constituents for the analysis of damage in ply and interface that imparted from low-velocity impact. The damages considered in this study include fiber breakage, matrix cracking, and diffused damage of the lamina, and delamination of the interface. The damage initiation and evolution in laminae can be modeled in terms of damaged strain energy density using damage parameters and the thermodynamic irreversible forces. Interface damage can be modeled with a new concept of spherical micro-void in the resin-rich zone of interface material. The damage evolution is controlled by the damage parameter (d) and the radius of micro-void (r) from the point of damage nucleation to its saturation. The constitutive martial model for meso-constituents is defined in a user material subroutine VUMAT and implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit finite element modeling tool. The model predicts the damages in the meso-constituents level very accurately and is considered the most effective technique of modeling low-velocity impact simulation for laminated composite structures.

Keywords: mesomodel, laminate, low-energy impact, micromechanics

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Authors: Seyed M. Zahrai, Saeid Lotfi

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If an infill panel does not have enough ductility against the loading, it breaks and gets damaged before depreciation and load transfer. As steel infill panel has appropriate ductility before fracture, it can be used as an alternative to typical infill panels under blast loading. Concerning enough ductility of out-of-plane behavior the infill panel, the impact force enters the horizontal diaphragm and is distributed among the lateral elements which can be made from steel infill panels. This article investigates the behavior of steel infill panels with different thickness and stiffeners using finite element analysis with geometric and material nonlinearities for optimization of the steel plate thickness and stiffeners arrangement to obtain more efficient design for its out-of-plane behavior.

Keywords: blast loading, ductility, maximum displacement, steel infill panel

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Detection of incipient abnormal events in production processes is important to improve safety and reliability of manufacturing operations and reduce losses caused by failures. The construction of calibration models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform preventive maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of process measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes variable selection techniques, and the predictive performance of several prediction methods are evaluated using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic model yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: calibration model, monitoring, quality improvement, feature selection

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Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

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With the field of artificial intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, interlaboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, measurement of bias impact on predictions, improvement of model accuracy and reliability

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Authors: Sidi Yang, Haiyi Zhang

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Twitter is a microblogging platform, where millions of users daily share their attitudes, views, and opinions. Using a probabilistic Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model to discern the most popular topics in the Twitter data is an effective way to analyze a large set of tweets to find a set of topics in a computationally efficient manner. Sentiment analysis provides an effective method to show the emotions and sentiments found in each tweet and an efficient way to summarize the results in a manner that is clearly understood. The primary goal of this paper is to explore text mining, extract and analyze useful information from unstructured text using two approaches: LDA topic modelling and sentiment analysis by examining Twitter plain text data in English. These two methods allow people to dig data more effectively and efficiently. LDA topic model and sentiment analysis can also be applied to provide insight views in business and scientific fields.

Keywords: text mining, Twitter, topic model, sentiment analysis

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Authors: N. Dahbi, M. Daoudi

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This paper deals with the use of computational method based on Monte Carlo simulation in order to investigate the transport phenomena of the electron in HgCdTe narrow band gap semiconductor. Via this method we can evaluate the time dependence of the transport parameters: velocity, energy and mobility of electrons through matter (HgCdTe).

Keywords: Monte Carlo, transport parameters, HgCdTe, computational mechanics

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Authors: A. Benhamena, L. Aminallah, A. Aid, M. Benguediab, A. Amrouche

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The goal of this work is to analyze the severity of interfacial stress distribution in the single lap adhesive joint under tensile loading. The three-dimensional and non-linear finite element method based on the computation of the peel and shear stresses was used to analyze the fracture behaviour of single lap adhesive joint. The effect of the loading magnitude and the overlap length on the distribution of peel and shear stresses was highlighted. A good correlation was found between the FEM simulations and the analytical results.

Keywords: aluminum 2024-T3 alloy, single-lap adhesive joints, Interface stress distributions, material nonlinear analysis, adhesive, bending moment, finite element method

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Authors: Sahar El Kasmi, Ayoub Aziz, Saadia Lharti, Mohammed El Janati, Boubker Boukili, Nacer El Motawakil, Mayom Chol Luka Awan

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Two types of geomaterials (Red Triassic clay from the Maaziz region and Yellow Pliocene clay from the Akrach region) were used to create different mixtures for the fabrication of ceramic bricks. This study investigated the influence of the Pliocene clay on the overall composition and mechanical properties of the Triassic clay. The red Triassic clay, sourced from Maaziz, underwent various mechanical processes and treatments to facilitate its transformation into ceramic bricks for construction. The triassic clay was subjected to a drying chamber and a heating chamber at 100°C to remove moisture. Subsequently, the dried clay samples were processed using a Planetary Babs ll Mill to reduce particle size and improve homogeneity. The resulting clay material was sieved, and the fine particles below 100 mm were collected for further analysis. In parallel, the Miocene marl obtained from the Akrach region was fragmented into finer particles and subjected to similar drying, grinding, and sieving procedures as the triassic clay. The two clay samples are then amalgamated and homogenized in different proportions. Precise measurements were taken using a weighing balance, and mixtures of 90%, 80%, and 70% Triassic clay with 10%, 20%, and 30% yellow clay were prepared, respectively. To evaluate the impact of Pliocene marl on the composition, the prepared clay mixtures were spread evenly and treated with a water modifier to enhance plasticity. The clay was then molded using a brick-making machine, and the initial manipulation process was observed. Additional batches were prepared with incremental amounts of Pliocene marl to further investigate its effect on the fracture behavior of the clay, specifically their resistance. The molded clay bricks were subjected to compression tests to measure their strength and resistance to deformation. Additional tests, such as water absorption tests, were also conducted to assess the overall performance of the ceramic bricks fabricated from the different clay mixtures. The results were analyzed to determine the influence of the Pliocene marl on the strength and durability of the Triassic clay bricks. The results indicated that the incorporation of Pliocene clay reduced the fracture of the triassic clay, with a noticeable reduction observed at 10% addition. No fractures were observed when 20% and 30% of yellow clay are added. These findings suggested that yellow clay can enhance the mechanical properties and structural integrity of red clay-based products.

Keywords: triassic clay, pliocene clay, mineralogical composition, geo-materials, ceramics, akach region, maaziz region, morocco.

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Authors: Tanzeel bin Abdul Rauf Patker, Saba Mateen

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This research investigates the impact of Brand Loyalty on the product performance and the factors those are considered more important in brand reputation. Variables selected for this research are Brand quality, Brand Equity, Brand Reputation to explore the impact of these variables on Product performance. For this purpose, primary research has been conducted. The questionnaire survey for this research study was administered among the population mainly at the shopping malls. For this research study, a sample size of 250 respondents has been taken into consideration. Customers from the shopping malls and university students constitute the sample for this research study using random sampling (non-probabilistic) used as a sampling technique for conducting the research survey. According to the results obtained from the collected data, it is interpreted that product performance shares a direct relationship with brand quality, brand quality, and brand reputation. Result also showed that brand quality and brand equity has a significant effect on product performance, whereas brand reputation has an insignificant effect on product performance.

Keywords: product performance, brand quality, brand equity, brand reputation

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Authors: Daniel Olshansky, Ramiro Rodrıguez Colmeiro

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Relay Mining presents a scalable solution employing probabilistic mechanisms and crypto-economic incentives to estimate RPC volume usage, facilitating decentralized multitenant rate limiting. Network traffic from individual applications can be concurrently serviced by multiple RPC service providers, with costs, rewards, and rate limiting governed by a native cryptocurrency on a distributed ledger. Building upon established research in token bucket algorithms and distributed rate-limiting penalty models, our approach harnesses a feedback loop control mechanism to adjust the difficulty of mining relay rewards, dynamically scaling with network usage growth. By leveraging crypto-economic incentives, we reduce coordination overhead costs and introduce a mechanism for providing RPC services that are both geopolitically and geographically distributed.

Keywords: remote procedure call, crypto-economic, commit-reveal, decentralization, scalability, blockchain, rate limiting, token bucket

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Authors: P. C. Tewari, Parveen Kumar

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The paper describes the availability analysis of milling system of a rice milling plant using probabilistic approach. The subsystems under study are special purpose machines. The availability analysis of the system is carried out to determine the effect of failure and repair rates of each subsystem on overall performance (i.e. steady state availability) of system concerned. Further, on the basis of effect of repair rates on the system availability, maintenance repair priorities have been suggested. The problem is formulated using Markov Birth-Death process taking exponential distribution for probable failures and repair rates. The first order differential equations associated with transition diagram are developed by using mnemonic rule. These equations are solved using normalizing conditions and recursive method to drive out the steady state availability expression of the system. The findings of the paper are presented and discussed with the plant personnel to adopt a suitable maintenance policy to increase the productivity of the rice milling plant.

Keywords: availability modeling, Markov process, milling system, rice milling plant

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

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Authors: Siti Khadijah Che Osmi, Syed Mohd Ahmad

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This paper presents a methodology to develop fragility curves for shallow tunnels so as to describe a relationship between seismic hazard and tunnel vulnerability. Emphasis is given to the influence of surrounding soil material properties because the dynamic behaviour of the tunnel mostly depends on it. Four ground properties of soils ranging from stiff to soft soils are selected. A 3D nonlinear time history analysis is used to evaluate the seismic response of the tunnel when subjected to five real earthquake ground intensities. The derived curves show the future probabilistic performance of the tunnels based on the predicted level of damage states corresponding to the peak ground acceleration. A comparison of the obtained results with the previous literature is provided to validate the reliability of the proposed fragility curves. Results show the significant role of soil properties and input motions in evaluating the seismic performance and response of shallow tunnels.

Keywords: fragility analysis, seismic performance, tunnel lining, vulnerability

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Authors: M. F. Yilmaz, B. Ö. Çağlayan

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Fragility curve is an effective common used tool to determine the earthquake performance of structural and nonstructural components. Also, it is used to determine the nonlinear behavior of bridges. There are many historical bridges in the Turkish railway network; the earthquake performances of these bridges are needed to be investigated. To derive fragility curve Intensity measures (IMs) and Engineering demand parameters (EDP) are needed to be determined. And the relation between IMs and EDP are needed to be derived. In this study, a typical simply supported steel girder riveted railway bridge is studied. Fragility curves of this bridge are derived by two parameters lognormal distribution. Time history analyses are done for selected 60 real earthquake data to determine the relation between IMs and EDP. Moreover, efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency of three different IMs are discussed. PGA, Sa(0.2s) and Sa(1s), the most common used IMs parameters for fragility curve in the literature, are taken into consideration in terms of efficiency, practicality and sufficiency.

Keywords: railway bridges, earthquake performance, fragility analyses, selection of intensity measures

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Authors: Ariyan S. Araghi, Guy C. Jackson, Stephen J. Bonsor

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Materials & Methods: A systematic literature search was undertaken using pre-determined inclusion and exclusion criteria. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. Several databases were used to search for randomised control trials and longitudinal cohort studies, which were published less than thirty years ago. A total of 54 studies met the predefined inclusion criteria. Four studies reviewed the success, survival, and failure characteristics of zirconia framework resin retained bridges, whilst two reviewed non-precious metal resin retained bridges. Results: The analysis of the studies revealed an overall survival rate of 95.9% for zirconia-based restorations compared to 90.7% for non-precious metal frameworks. Non-precious metal resin retained bridges displayed a higher overall failure rate of 11.9% compared to 4.6% for zirconia-based restorations in the analysed papers. The most frequent complications were wing debonding for the non-precious metal wing group, whereas substructure fracture and veneering ceramic fracture were more prevalent for the zirconia arm of the study. Conclusion: Both types of resin retained bridges provide effective medium to long-term survival. Zirconia-based frameworks will provide marginally increased success and survival and greatly improved aesthetics. However, catastrophic failure is more likely with zirconia-based restorations. Non-precious metal is time tested but performs worse than its zirconia counterpart with regards to longevity; it does not exhibit the same framework fractures as zirconia. Cement choice and attention to the adhesive bonding systems used appear to be paramount to restoration longevity with both restoration subtypes. Furthermore, improved longevity can be seen when air particle abrasion is incorporated into the adhesive protocol. Within the limitations of this study, it has been determined that zirconia-based resin retained bridges can be effectively used in anterior cantilever bridges. Clinical Significance: Zirconia-based resin retained bridges have been demonstrating promising results in terms of improved success and survival characteristics, together with improved aesthetics when compared to non-precious metal winged resin retained bridges. Their popularity is increasing in the age of digital dentistry as many restorations are manufactured using such technology. It is essential that clinicians understand the limitations of each material type and principles of adhesion to ensure restoration longevity.

Keywords: resin retained bridge, fixed partial denture, zirconia bridge, adhesive bridge

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Authors: Oumaima Lahmar

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This paper aims to define a structured topography for finance researchers seeking to navigate the body of knowledge in their extrapolation of finance phenomena. To make sense of the body of knowledge in finance, a probabilistic topic modeling approach is applied on 6000 abstracts of academic articles published in three top journals in finance between 1976 and 2020. This approach combines both machine learning techniques and natural language processing to statistically identify the conjunctions between research articles and their shared topics described each by relevant keywords. The topic modeling analysis reveals 35 coherent topics that can well depict finance literature and provide a comprehensive structure for the ongoing research themes. Comparing the extracted topics to the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification system, a significant similarity was highlighted between the characterizing keywords. On the other hand, we identify other topics that do not match the JEL classification despite being relevant in the finance literature.

Keywords: finance literature, textual analysis, topic modeling, perplexity

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sanggoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered an efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, marginal likelihood evidence

Procedia PDF Downloads 417