Search results for: Grey prediction model

Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

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Authors: Prashant Verma, Prafulla K. Swain, K. K. Singh, Mukti Khetan

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Objective: In India, around 20,000 women die every year due to abortion-related complications. In the modelling of count variables, there is sometimes a preponderance of zero counts. This article concerns the estimation of various count regression models to predict the average number of spontaneous abortion among women in the Punjab state of India. It also assesses the factors associated with the number of spontaneous abortions. Materials and methods: The study included 27,173 married women of Punjab obtained from the DLHS-4 survey (2012-13). Poisson regression (PR), Negative binomial (NB) regression, zero hurdle negative binomial (ZHNB), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models were employed to predict the average number of spontaneous abortions and to identify the determinants affecting the number of spontaneous abortions. Results: Statistical comparisons among four estimation methods revealed that the ZINB model provides the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions. Antenatal care (ANC) place, place of residence, total children born to a woman, woman's education and economic status were found to be the most significant factors affecting the occurrence of spontaneous abortion. Conclusions: The study offers a practical demonstration of techniques designed to handle count variables. Statistical comparisons among four estimation models revealed that the ZINB model provided the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions and is recommended to be used to predict the number of spontaneous abortions. The study suggests that women receive institutional Antenatal care to attain limited parity. It also advocates promoting higher education among women in Punjab, India.

Keywords: count data, spontaneous abortion, Poisson model, negative binomial model, zero hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, regression

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Authors: Baeza S. Roberto

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The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes are included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Keywords: neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression

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Authors: Abejide Dorcas Ropo, Falusi Olamide Ahmed, Daudu Oladipupo Abdulazeez Yusuf, Muhammad Liman Muhammad, Gado Aishatu Adamu

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Bambara groundnut is an indigenous African legume with great potential to tackle the problem of food insecurity in Nigeria. A germplasm collection mission was carried out in collaboration with the Agricultural Developments Project (ADP) Extension officers of Nigeria between October and December 2014. Bambara groundnut seeds were collected from farmers in different States in Nigeria, such as Kaduna, Niger, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Jigawa, Enugu, and Federal Capital Territoy (FCT) Abuja. Some seeds were also collected from National Centre for Genetic Resources and Biotechnology (NACGRAB). The seeds were phenotyped using the descriptor list of Vigna subterranea produced by the International Plant Genetic Resource Institute. A total of 45 original seed lots were collected, which comprised of mixed seeds having different seed coat colours (15) and pure seeded accessions having the same seed coat and eye colour (30). After sorting, a total of 83 accessions were derived from the 45 original seed lots collected, and a total of 24 distinct seed morphotypes with varying seed coat colours and eye colours were identified from the collections. They include cream ( cream ash eye, cream plain eye, and cream black eye), cream purplish spots, cream brown spots/stripe, cream black stripe, cream dark brown patches, cream light grey spots, cream black patches, black, red, light red, dark red, brownish red, brown speckled with black, red speckled with black, brown, brown with brown pattern below hilum, brown with black pattern below hilum, cream black, grey brown, grey black and variegated red. The highest number of accessions were collected from NACGRAB (11), followed by Niger State (10), and the lowest from Benue, Jigawa, and Adamawa States (2). Niger State also had the highest number of mixed seeds. The different seed phenotypes observed in the study are important for the field production of true-to-type lines and can be exploited for the genetic improvement of the Bambara groundnut.

Keywords: Bambara groundnut, characterization, collection, germplasm, phenotypic

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Authors: D. S. C. Soares, D. G. Costa, J. T. S., A. K. S. Abud, T. P. Nunes, A. M. Oliveira Júnior

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Mathematical models of drying are used for the purpose of understanding the drying process in order to determine important parameters for design and operation of the dryer. The jackfruit is a fruit with high consumption in the Northeast and perishability. It is necessary to apply techniques to improve their conservation for longer in order to diffuse it by regions with low consumption. This study aimed to analyse several mathematical models (Page, Lewis, and Midilli) to indicate one that best fits the conditions of convective drying process using performance indicators associated with each model: accuracy (Af) and noise factors (Bf), mean square error (RMSE) and standard error of prediction (% SEP). Jackfruit drying was carried out in convective type tray dryer at a temperature of 50°C for 9 hours. It is observed that the model Midili was more accurate with Af: 1.39, Bf: 1.33, RMSE: 0.01%, and SEP: 5.34. However, the use of the Model Midilli is not appropriate for purposes of control process due to need four tuning parameters. With the performance indicators used in this paper, the Page model showed similar results with only two parameters. It is concluded that the best correlation between the experimental and estimated data is given by the Page’s model.

Keywords: drying, models, jackfruit, biotechnology

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

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Authors: Ya Lv

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This article presents the application of the semi-analytic method (SAM) in the thermal management solution (TMS) of the energy storage system (ESS). The TMS studied in this work is fluid cooling. In fluid cooling, both effective heat conduction and heat convection are indispensable due to the heat transfer from solid to fluid. Correspondingly, an efficient TMS requires a design investigation of the following parameters: fluid inlet temperature, ESS initial temperature, fluid flow rate, working c rate, continuous working time, and materials properties. Their variation induces a change of thermal performance in the battery module, which is usually evaluated by numerical simulation. Compared to complicated computation resources and long computation time in simulation, the SAM is developed in this article to predict the thermal influence within a few seconds. In SAM, a fast prediction model is reckoned by combining numerical simulation with theoretical/empirical equations. The SAM can explore the thermal effect of boundary parameters in both steady-state and transient heat transfer scenarios within a short time. Therefore, the SAM developed in this work can simplify the design cycle of TMS and inspire more possibilities in TMS design.

Keywords: semi-analytic method, fast prediction model, thermal influence of boundary parameters, energy storage system

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Authors: Ginger Egberts, Marianne Schaaphok, Fred Vermolen, Paul van Zuijlen

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A few years ago, a promising morphoelastic model was developed for the simulation of contraction formation after burn injuries. Contraction can lead to a serious reduction in physical mobility, like a reduction in the range-of-motion of joints. If this is the case in a healing burn wound, then this is referred to as a contracture that needs medical intervention. The morphoelastic model consists of a set of partial differential equations describing both a chemical part and a mechanical part in dermal wound healing. These equations are solved with the numerical finite element method (FEM). In this method, many calculations are required on each of the chosen elements. In general, the more elements, the more accurate the solution. However, the number of elements increases rapidly if simulations are performed in 2D and 3D. In that case, it not only takes longer before a prediction is available, the computation also becomes more expensive. It is therefore important to investigate alternative possibilities to generate the same results, based on the input parameters only. In this study, a surrogate neural network has been designed to mimic the results of the one-dimensional morphoelastic model. The neural network generates predictions quickly, is easy to implement, and there is freedom in the choice of input and output. Because a neural network requires extensive training and a data set, it is ideal that the one-dimensional FEM code generates output quickly. These feed-forward-type neural network results are very promising. Not only can the network give faster predictions, but it also has a performance of over 99%. It reports on the relative surface area of the wound/scar, the total strain energy density, and the evolutions of the densities of the chemicals and mechanics. It is, therefore, interesting to investigate the applicability of a neural network for the two- and three-dimensional morphoelastic model for contraction after burn injuries.

Keywords: biomechanics, burns, feasibility, feed-forward NN, morphoelasticity, neural network, relative surface area wound

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Authors: Danilo López, Edwin Rivas, Fernando Pedraza

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Currently, one of the major challenges in wireless networks is the optimal use of radio spectrum, which is managed inefficiently. One of the solutions to existing problem converges in the use of Cognitive Radio (CR), as an essential parameter so that the use of the available licensed spectrum is possible (by secondary users), well above the usage values that are currently detected; thus allowing the opportunistic use of the channel in the absence of primary users (PU). This article presents the results found when estimating or predicting the future use of a spectral transmission band (from the perspective of the PU) for a chaotic type channel arrival behavior. The time series prediction method (which the PU represents) used is ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System). The results obtained were compared to those delivered by the RNA (Artificial Neural Network) algorithm. The results show better performance in the characterization (modeling and prediction) with the ANFIS methodology.

Keywords: ANFIS, cognitive radio, prediction primary user, RNA

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Authors: Kennedy Efosa Ehimwenma, Sujatha Krishnamoorthy, Safiya Al‑Sharji

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The probability computation of events is in the interval of [0, 1], which are values that are determined by the number of outcomes of events in a sample space S. The probability Pr(A) that an event A will never occur is 0. The probability Pr(B) that event B will certainly occur is 1. This makes both events A and B a certainty. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities Pr(E₁) + Pr(E₂) + … + Pr(Eₙ) of a finite set of events in a given sample space S equals 1. Conversely, the difference of the sum of two probabilities that will certainly occur is 0. This paper first discusses Bayes, the complement of probability, and the difference of probability for occurrences of learning-events before applying them in the prediction of learning objects in student learning. Given the sum of 1; to make a recommendation for student learning, this paper proposes that the difference of argMaxPr(S) and the probability of student-performance quantifies the weight of learning objects for students. Using a dataset of skill-set, the computational procedure demonstrates i) the probability of skill-set events that have occurred that would lead to higher-level learning; ii) the probability of the events that have not occurred that requires subject-matter relearning; iii) accuracy of the decision tree in the prediction of student performance into class labels and iv) information entropy about skill-set data and its implication on student cognitive performance and recommendation of learning.

Keywords: complement of probability, Bayes’ rule, prediction, pre-assessments, computational education, information theory

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Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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The present study compares the semi-empirical wake-oscillator models that are used to predict vortex-induced vibration of structures. These models include those proposed by Facchinetti, Farshidian, and Dolatabadi, and Skop and Griffin. These models combine a wake oscillator model resembling the Van der Pol oscillator model and a single degree of freedom oscillation model. In order to use these models for estimating the top displacement of chimneys, the first mode vibration of the chimneys is only considered. The modal equation of the chimney constitutes the single degree of freedom model (SDOF). The equations of the wake oscillator model and the SDOF are simultaneously solved using an iterative procedure. The empirical parameters used in the wake-oscillator models are estimated using a newly developed approach, and response is compared with experimental data, which appeared comparable. For carrying out the iterative solution, the ode solver of MATLAB is used. To carry out the comparative study, a tall concrete chimney of height 210m has been chosen with the base diameter as 28m, top diameter as 20m, and thickness as 0.3m. The responses of the chimney are also determined using the linear model proposed by E. Simiu and the deterministic model given in Eurocode. It is observed from the comparative study that the responses predicted by the Facchinetti model and the model proposed by Skop and Griffin are nearly the same, while the model proposed by Fashidian and Dolatabadi predicts a higher response. The linear model without considering the aero-elastic phenomenon provides a less response as compared to the non-linear models. Further, for large damping, the prediction of the response by the Euro code is relatively well compared to those of non-linear models.

Keywords: chimney, deterministic model, van der pol, vortex-induced vibration

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Authors: S. Bennoud, M. Zergoug

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The numerical simulation of electromagnetic interactions is still a challenging problem, especially in problems that result in fully three dimensional mathematical models. The goal of this work is to use mathematical modeling to characterize the reliability and capacity of eddy current technique to detect and characterize defects embedded in aeronautical in-service pieces. The finite element method is used for describing the eddy current technique in a mathematical model by the prediction of the eddy current interaction with defects. However, this model is an approximation of the full Maxwell equations. In this study, the analysis of the problem is based on a three dimensional finite element model that computes directly the electromagnetic field distortions due to defects.

Keywords: eddy current, finite element method, non destructive testing, numerical simulations

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Authors: Leila Baghaarabani, Parvin Razzaghi, Mennatolla Magdy Mostafa, Ahmad Albaqsami, Al Warith Al Rushaidi, Masoud Al Rawahi

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Predicting the interaction between drugs and their molecular targets is pivotal for advancing drug development processes. Due to the time and cost limitations, computational approaches have emerged as an effective approach to drug-target interaction (DTI) prediction. Most of the introduced computational based approaches utilize the drug molecule and protein sequence as input. This study does not only utilize these inputs, it also introduces a protein representation developed using a masked protein language model. In this representation, for every individual amino acid residue within the protein sequence, there exists a corresponding probability distribution that indicates the likelihood of each amino acid being present at that particular position. Then, the similarity between each pair of amino-acids is computed to create similarity matrix. To encode the knowledge of the similarity matrix, Bi-Level Routing Attention (BiFormer) is utilized, which combines aspects of transformer-based models with protein sequence analysis and represents a significant advancement in the field of drug-protein interaction prediction. BiFormer has the ability to pinpoint the most effective regions of the protein sequence that are responsible for facilitating interactions between the protein and drugs, thereby enhancing the understanding of these critical interactions. Thus, it appears promising in its ability to capture the local structural relationship of the proteins by enhancing the understanding of how it contributes to drug protein interactions, thereby facilitating more accurate predictions. To evaluate the proposed method, it was tested on two widely recognized datasets: Davis and KIBA. A comprehensive series of experiments was conducted to illustrate its effectiveness in comparison to cuttingedge techniques.

Keywords: BiFormer, transformer, protein language processing, self-attention mechanism, binding affinity, drug target interaction, similarity matrix, protein masked representation, protein language model

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Authors: Alireza Fallahfard, Ludwig Vinches, Stephane Halle

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In the workplace, the exposure level of airborne contaminants should be evaluated due to health and safety issues. It can be done by numerical models or experimental measurements, but the numerical approach can be useful when it is challenging to perform experiments. One of the simplest models is the well-mixed room (WMR) model, which has shown its usefulness to predict inhalation exposure in many situations. However, since the WMR is limited to gases and vapors, it cannot be used to predict exposure to aerosols. The main objective is to modify the WMR model to expand its application to exposure scenarios involving aerosols. To reach this objective, the standard WMR model has been modified to consider the deposition of particles by gravitational settling and Brownian and turbulent deposition. Three deposition models were implemented in the model. The time-dependent concentrations of airborne particles predicted by the model were compared to experimental results conducted in a 0.512 m3 chamber. Polystyrene particles of 1, 2, and 3 µm in aerodynamic diameter were generated with a nebulizer under two air changes per hour (ACH). The well-mixed condition and chamber ACH were determined by the tracer gas decay method. The mean friction velocity on the chamber surfaces as one of the input variables for the deposition models was determined by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. For the experimental procedure, the particles were generated until reaching the steady-state condition (emission period). Then generation stopped, and concentration measurements continued until reaching the background concentration (decay period). The results of the tracer gas decay tests revealed that the ACHs of the chamber were: 1.4 and 3.0, and the well-mixed condition was achieved. The CFD results showed the average mean friction velocity and their standard deviations for the lowest and highest ACH were (8.87 ± 0.36) ×10-2 m/s and (8.88 ± 0.38) ×10-2 m/s, respectively. The numerical results indicated the difference between the predicted deposition rates by the three deposition models was less than 2%. The experimental and numerical aerosol concentrations were compared in the emission period and decay period. In both periods, the prediction accuracy of the modified model improved in comparison with the classic WMR model. However, there is still a difference between the actual value and the predicted value. In the emission period, the modified WMR results closely follow the experimental data. However, the model significantly overestimates the experimental results during the decay period. This finding is mainly due to an underestimation of the deposition rate in the model and uncertainty related to measurement devices and particle size distribution. Comparing the experimental and numerical deposition rates revealed that the actual particle deposition rate is significant, but the deposition mechanisms considered in the model were ten times lower than the experimental value. Thus, particle deposition was significant and will affect the airborne concentration in occupational settings, and it should be considered in the airborne exposure prediction model. The role of other removal mechanisms should be investigated.

Keywords: aerosol, CFD, exposure assessment, occupational settings, well-mixed room model, zonal model

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Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

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Wear of materials is an everyday experience and has been observed and studied for long time. The prediction of wear is a fundamental problem in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the planning of maintenance interventions and economy. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin which is made of steel with a tip, is positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument; where the Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, and the alicona was used to measure the volume loss for pin and disc. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling and the simulation results are implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be considered as a powerful tool for wear measurements and how the neural network is an effective algorithm for wear estimation.

Keywords: wear modelling, Archard Model, ASTM Model, Neural Networks Model, Pin-on-disc Test, Talysurf, digital microscope, Alicona

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Authors: M. Abou-Amouna, A. Radwan, L. Al-kuwari, A. Hammuda, K. Al-Khalifa

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There is growing concern over increasing incidences of road accidents and consequent loss of human life in Qatar. In light to the future planned event in Qatar, World Cup 2022; Qatar should put into consideration the future deaths caused by road accidents, and past trends should be considered to give a reasonable picture of what may happen in the future. Qatar roads should be arranged and paved in a way that accommodate high capacity of the population in that time, since then there will be a huge number of visitors from the world. Qatar should also consider the risk issues of road accidents raised in that period, and plan to maintain high level to safety strategies. According to the increase in the number of road accidents in Qatar from 1995 until 2012, an analysis of elements affecting and causing road accidents will be effectively studied. This paper aims to identify and criticize the factors that have high effect on causing road accidents in the state of Qatar, and predict the total number of road accidents in Qatar 2022. Alternative methods are discussed and the most applicable ones according to the previous researches are selected for further studies. The methods that satisfy the existing case in Qatar were the multiple linear regression model (MLR) and artificial neutral network (ANN). Those methods are analyzed and their findings are compared. We conclude that by using MLR the number of accidents in 2022 will become 355,226 accidents, and by using ANN 216,264 accidents. We conclude that MLR gave better results than ANN because the artificial neutral network doesn’t fit data with large range varieties.

Keywords: road safety, prediction, accident, model, Qatar

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Authors: Anuruddha Jayasuriya, Thanakorn Pheeraphan

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In this paper, a review of different mathematical models which can be used as prediction tools to assess the time to crack reinforced concrete (RC) due to corrosion is investigated. This investigation leads to an experimental study to validate a selected prediction model. Most of these mathematical models depend upon the mechanical behaviors, chemical behaviors, electrochemical behaviors or geometric aspects of the RC members during a corrosion process. The experimental program is designed to verify the accuracy of a well-selected mathematical model from a rigorous literature study. Fundamentally, the experimental program exemplifies both one-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared slab elements of 500 mm by 500 mm and two-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared column elements of 225 mm by 225 mm by 500 mm. Each set consists of three water-to-cement ratios (w/c); 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and two cover depths; 25 mm and 50 mm. 12 mm bars are used for column elements and 16 mm bars are used for slab elements. All the samples are subjected to accelerated chloride corrosion in a chloride bath of 5% (w/w) sodium chloride (NaCl) solution. Based on a pre-screening of different models, it is clear that the well-selected mathematical model had included mechanical properties, chemical and electrochemical properties, nature of corrosion whether it is accelerated or natural, and the amount of porous area that rust products can accommodate before exerting expansive pressure on the surrounding concrete. The experimental results have shown that the selected model for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional chloride diffusion had ±20% and ±10% respective accuracies compared to the experimental output. The half-cell potential readings are also used to see the corrosion probability, and experimental results have shown that the mass loss is proportional to the negative half-cell potential readings that are obtained. Additionally, a statistical analysis is carried out in order to determine the most influential factor that affects the time to corrode the reinforcement in the concrete due to chloride diffusion. The factors considered for this analysis are w/c, bar diameter, and cover depth. The analysis is accomplished by using Minitab statistical software, and it showed that cover depth is the significant effect on the time to crack the concrete from chloride induced corrosion than other factors considered. Thus, the time predictions can be illustrated through the selected mathematical model as it covers a wide range of factors affecting the corrosion process, and it can be used to predetermine the durability concern of RC structures that are vulnerable to chloride exposure. And eventually, it is further concluded that cover thickness plays a vital role in durability in terms of chloride diffusion.

Keywords: accelerated corrosion, chloride diffusion, corrosion cracks, passivation layer, reinforcement corrosion

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Authors: Nastaran Moosavi, Mohammad Mokhtari

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Seismic inversion is a technique which has been in use for years and its main goal is to estimate and to model physical characteristics of rocks and fluids. Generally, it is a combination of seismic and well-log data. Seismic inversion can be carried out through different methods; we have conducted and compared post-stack and pre- stack seismic inversion methods on real data in one of the fields in the Persian Gulf. Pre-stack seismic inversion can transform seismic data to rock physics such as P-impedance, S-impedance and density. While post- stack seismic inversion can just estimate P-impedance. Then these parameters can be used in reservoir identification. Based on the results of inverting seismic data, a gas reservoir was detected in one of Hydrocarbon oil fields in south of Iran (Persian Gulf). By comparing post stack and pre-stack seismic inversion it can be concluded that the pre-stack seismic inversion provides a more reliable and detailed information for identification and prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Keywords: density, p-impedance, s-impedance, post-stack seismic inversion, pre-stack seismic inversion

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Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

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Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

Keywords: tides, prediction, support vector machines, genetic algorithm, back-propagation neural network, risk, hazards

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Authors: Eung-Seok Park, Tae-Chul Jeong, Hyun-Jong Park, Hyun-Woo Jun, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

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This presents a methodology to determine detail design directions of an 150kW-class IPMSM (interior permanent magnet synchronous motor) and its detail design. The basic design of the stator and rotor was conducted. After dividing the designed models into the best cases and the worst cases based on rotor shape parameters, Sensitivity analysis and 3D Voltage-Inductance Map (3D EL-Map) parameters were analyzed. Then, the design direction for the final model was predicted. Based on the prediction, the final model was extracted with Trend analysis. Lastly, the final model was validated with experiments.

Keywords: PMSM, optimal design, rotor design, voltage-inductance map

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Mohamed Marzouk, Tarek Zayed

Abstract:

Infrastructure systems are crucial to every aspect of life on Earth. Existing Infrastructure is subjected to degradation while the demands are growing for a better infrastructure system in response to the high standards of safety, health, population growth, and environmental protection. Bridges play a crucial role in urban transportation networks. Moreover, they are subjected to high level of deterioration because of the variable traffic loading, extreme weather conditions, cycles of freeze and thaw, etc. The development of Bridge Management Systems (BMSs) has become a fundamental imperative nowadays especially in the large transportation networks due to the huge variance between the need for maintenance actions, and the available funds to perform such actions. Deterioration models represent a very important aspect for the effective use of BMSs. This paper presents a probabilistic time-based model that is capable of predicting the condition ratings of the concrete bridge decks along its service life. The deterioration process of the concrete bridge decks is modeled using semi-Markov process. One of the main challenges of the Markov Chain Decision Process (MCDP) is the construction of the transition probability matrix. Yet, the proposed model overcomes this issue by modeling the sojourn times based on some probability density functions. The sojourn times of each condition state are fitted to probability density functions based on some goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson Darling, and chi-squared test. The parameters of the probability density functions are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The condition ratings obtained from the Ministry of Transportation in Quebec (MTQ) are utilized as a database to construct the deterioration model. Finally, a comparison is conducted between the Markov Chain and semi-Markov chain to select the most feasible prediction model.

Keywords: bridge management system, bridge decks, deterioration model, Semi-Markov chain, sojourn times, maximum likelihood estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Monika Chuchro

Abstract:

This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain a subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from inflow into waste water treatment plant data which Composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms: K-mean and EM were chosen as a clustering method. The rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of subgroups models. The quality of obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables but with no clustering of data. Results were compared by determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on linear chart. Preliminary results allows to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: clustering, data analysis, data mining, predictive models

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Authors: Saurabh Sharma, Yong Sun, Bruce Vernham

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Accurate prediction of NOx emission is a continuous challenge in the field of diesel engine-out emission modeling. Performing experiments for each conditions and scenario cost significant amount of money and man hours, therefore model-based development strategy has been implemented in order to solve that issue. NOx formation is highly dependent on the burn gas temperature and the O₂ concentration inside the cylinder. The current empirical models are developed by calibrating the parameters representing the engine operating conditions with respect to the measured NOx. This makes the prediction of purely empirical models limited to the region where it has been calibrated. An alternative solution to that is presented in this paper, which focus on the utilization of in-cylinder combustion parameters to form a predictive semi-empirical NOx model. The result of this work is shown by developing a fast and predictive NOx model by using the physical parameters and empirical correlation. The model is developed based on the steady state data collected at entire operating region of the engine and the predictive combustion model, which is developed in Gamma Technology (GT)-Power by using Direct Injected (DI)-Pulse combustion object. In this approach, temperature in both burned and unburnt zone is considered during the combustion period i.e. from Intake Valve Closing (IVC) to Exhaust Valve Opening (EVO). Also, the oxygen concentration consumed in burnt zone and trapped fuel mass is also considered while developing the reported model.  Several statistical methods are used to construct the model, including individual machine learning methods and ensemble machine learning methods. A detailed validation of the model on multiple diesel engines is reported in this work. Substantial numbers of cases are tested for different engine configurations over a large span of speed and load points. Different sweeps of operating conditions such as Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR), injection timing and Variable Valve Timing (VVT) are also considered for the validation. Model shows a very good predictability and robustness at both sea level and altitude condition with different ambient conditions. The various advantages such as high accuracy and robustness at different operating conditions, low computational time and lower number of data points requires for the calibration establishes the platform where the model-based approach can be used for the engine calibration and development process. Moreover, the focus of this work is towards establishing a framework for the future model development for other various targets such as soot, Combustion Noise Level (CNL), NO₂/NOx ratio etc.

Keywords: diesel engine, machine learning, NOₓ emission, semi-empirical

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Y. Galerkin, K. Soldatova, A. Drozdov

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The 6th version of Universal modeling method for centrifugal compressor stage calculation is described. Identification of the new mathematical model was made. As a result of identification the uniform set of empirical coefficients is received. The efficiency definition error is 0,86 % at a design point. The efficiency definition error at five flow rate points (except a point of the maximum flow rate) is 1,22 %. Several variants of the stage with 3D impellers designed by 6th version program and quasi three-dimensional calculation programs were compared by their gas dynamic performances CFD (NUMECA FINE TURBO). Performance comparison demonstrated general principles of design validity and leads to some design recommendations.

Keywords: compressor design, loss model, performance prediction, test data, model stages, flow rate coefficient, work coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Surita Maini, Sanjay Dhanka

Abstract:

Machine learning (ML) involves developing algorithms and statistical models that enable computers to learn and make predictions or decisions based on data without being explicitly programmed. Because of its unlimited abilities ML is gaining popularity in medical sectors; Medical Imaging, Electronic Health Records, Genomic Data Analysis, Wearable Devices, Disease Outbreak Prediction, Disease Diagnosis, etc. In the last few decades, many researchers have tried to diagnose Breast Cancer (BC) using ML, because early detection of any disease can save millions of lives. Working in this direction, the authors have proposed a hybrid ML technique RBF SVM, to predict the BC in earlier the stage. The proposed method is implemented on the Breast Cancer UCI ML dataset with 569 instances and 32 attributes. The authors recorded performance metrics of the proposed model i.e., Accuracy 98.24%, Sensitivity 98.67%, Specificity 97.43%, F1 Score 98.67%, Precision 98.67%, and run time 0.044769 seconds. The proposed method is validated by K-Fold cross-validation.

Keywords: breast cancer, support vector classifier, machine learning, hyper parameter tunning

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Authors: A. Ejah Umraeni Salam, M. Tola, M. Selintung, F. Maricar

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Clean water is an essential and fundamental human need. Therefore, its supply must be assured by maintaining the quality, quantity and water pressure. However the fact is, on its distribution system, leakage happens and becomes a common world issue. One of the technical causes of the leakage is a leaking pipe. The purpose of the research is how to use the Radial Basis Function Neural (RBFNN) model to detect the location and the magnitude of the pipeline leakage rapidly and efficiently. In this study the RBFNN are trained and tested on data from EPANET hydraulic modeling system. Method of Radial Basis Function Neural Network is proved capable to detect location and magnitude of pipeline leakage with of the accuracy of the prediction results based on the value of RMSE (Root Meant Square Error), comparison prediction and actual measurement approaches 0.000049 for the whole pipeline system.

Keywords: radial basis function neural network, leakage pipeline, EPANET, RMSE

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: Karima Boukhadia

Abstract:

In the present study, the subsonic flow in an asymmetrical diffuser was simulated numerically using code CFX 11.0 and its generator of grid ICEM CFD. Two models of turbulence were tested: K- ε and K- ω SST. The results obtained showed that the K- ε model singularly over-estimates the speed value close to the wall and that the K- ω SST model is qualitatively in good agreement with the experimental results of Buice and Eaton 1997. They also showed that the separation and reattachment of the fluid on the tilted wall strongly depends on its angle of inclination and that the length of the zone of separation increases with the angle of inclination of the lower wall of the diffuser.

Keywords: asymmetric diffuser, separation, reattachment, tilt angle, separation zone

Procedia PDF Downloads 577