Search results for: urban poor

Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

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Regional planning in health has gained speed for developing countries in recent years. In Turkey, 89 different Public Hospital Unions (PHUs) were conducted based on provincial levels. In this study technical efficiencies of 89 PHUs were examined by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and machine learning techniques by dividing them into two clusters in terms of similarities of input and output indicators. Number of beds, physicians and nurses determined as input variables and number of outpatients, inpatients and surgical operations determined as output indicators. Before performing DEA, PHUs were grouped into two clusters. It is seen that the first cluster represents PHUs which have higher population, demand and service density than the others. The difference between clusters was statistically significant in terms of all study variables (p ˂ 0.001). After clustering, DEA was performed for general and for two clusters separately. It was found that 11% of PHUs were efficient in general, additionally 21% and 17% of them were efficient for the first and second clusters respectively. It is seen that PHUs, which are representing urban parts of the country and have higher population and service density, are more efficient than others. Random forest decision tree graph shows that number of inpatients is a determinative factor of efficiency of PHUs, which is a measure of service density. It is advisable for public health policy makers to use statistical learning methods in resource planning decisions to improve efficiency in health care.

Keywords: public hospital unions, efficiency, data envelopment analysis, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Aya Al Masri, Stefaan Carpentier, Fabrice Leroy, Thibault Julien, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: During an 'Interventional Radiology (IR)' procedure, the patient's skin-dose may become very high for a burn, necrosis and ulceration to appear. In order to prevent these deterministic effects, an accurate calculation of the patient skin-dose mapping is essential. For most machines, the 'Dose Area Product (DAP)' and fluoroscopy time are the only information available for the operator. These two parameters are a very poor indicator of the peak skin dose. We developed a mathematical model that reconstructs the magnitude (delivered dose), shape, and localization of each irradiation field on the patient skin. In case of critical dose exceeding, the system generates warning alerts. We present the results of its comparison with clinical studies. Materials and methods: Two series of comparison of the skin-dose mapping of our mathematical model with clinical studies were performed: 1. At a first time, clinical tests were performed on patient phantoms. Gafchromic films were placed on the table of the IR machine under of PMMA plates (thickness = 20 cm) that simulate the patient. After irradiation, the film darkening is proportional to the radiation dose received by the patient's back and reflects the shape of the X-ray field. After film scanning and analysis, the exact dose value can be obtained at each point of the mapping. Four experimentation were performed, constituting a total of 34 acquisition incidences including all possible exposure configurations. 2. At a second time, clinical trials were launched on real patients during real 'Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO)' procedures for a total of 80 cases. Gafchromic films were placed at the back of patients. We performed comparisons on the dose values, as well as the distribution, and the shape of irradiation fields between the skin dose mapping of our mathematical model and Gafchromic films. Results: The comparison between the dose values shows a difference less than 15%. Moreover, our model shows a very good geometric accuracy: all fields have the same shape, size and location (uncertainty < 5%). Conclusion: This study shows that our model is a reliable tool to warn physicians when a high radiation dose is reached. Thus, deterministic effects can be avoided.

Keywords: clinical experimentation, interventional radiology, mathematical model, patient's skin-dose mapping.

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Neeraj Kumar, J. P. Narayan

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The effects of multiple Structure-Soil-Structure Interactions (SSSI) on the seismic wave-field is generally disregarded by earthquake engineers, particularly the surface waves which cause more damage to buildings. Closely built high rise buildings exchange substantial seismic energy with each other and act as a full-coupled dynamic system. In this paper, SSI effects on the building responses and the free field motion due to a small city consisting 25- homogenous buildings blocks of 10-storey are quantified. The rocking and translational behavior of building under Rayleigh wave loading is studied for different dimensions of the building. The obtained dynamic parameters of buildings revealed a reduction in building roof drift with an increase in number of buildings ahead of the considered building. The strain developed by vertical component of Rayleigh may cause tension in structural components of building. A matching of fundamental frequency of building for the horizontal component of Rayleigh wave with that for vertically incident SV-wave is obtained. Further, the fundamental frequency of building for the vertical vibration is approximately twice to that for horizontal vibration. The city insulation has caused a reduction of amplitude of Rayleigh wave up to 19.3% and 21.6% in the horizontal and vertical components, respectively just outside the city. Further, the insulating effect of city was very large at fundamental frequency of buildings for both the horizontal and vertical components. Therefore, it is recommended to consider the insulating effects of city falling in the path of Rayleigh wave propagation in seismic hazard assessment for an area.

Keywords: structure-soil-structure interactions, Rayleigh wave propagation, finite difference simulation, dynamic response of buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Manqhai Kraai, Adrian M. Shrader, Peter F. Scogings

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For animals living in herds, competition between group members increases as herd size increases. The intensity of this competition is likely greater across poor quality landscapes and during the dry season. In contrast to wild herbivores, herd size in domestic livestock is determined by their owners. This then raises the question, how do domestic livestock, like goats, reduce competition for food within these defined herds? To explore this question, large-scale foraging behaviour of both small (12 to 28 individuals) and large (42 to 83 individuals) herds of free-ranging goats were recorded in Tugela Ferry, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study was conducted on three different landscapes that varied in both food quality and availability, during the wet and dry seasons of 2013-2014. The goats were housed in kraals overnight and let out in the mornings to forage unattended. Thus, foraging decisions were made by the goats and not by herders. The large-scale foraging behaviours focussed on included, (i) total distance travelled by goats while foraging, (ii) distance travelled before starting to feed, (iii) travel speed, and (iv) feeding duration. This was done using Garmin Foretrex 401 GPS devices harnessed to two goats per herd. Irrespective of season, there was no difference in the total distance travelled by the different sized herds across the different quality landscapes. However, both small and large herds started feeding farther from the kraal in the dry compared to the wet season. Despite this, there was no significant seasonal difference in total amount of time the herds spent feeding across the different landscapes. Finally, both small and large herds increased their travel speed across all the landscapes in the dry season, but large herds travelled faster than small herds. This increase was likely to maximise the time that large herds could spend feeding in good areas. Ultimately, these results indicate that both small and large herds were affected by declines in food quality and quantity during the dry season. However, as large herds made greater behavioural adjustments compared to smaller herds (i.e., feeding farther away from the kraal and travelling faster), it appeared that they were more affected by the seasonal increases in intra-herd competition.

Keywords: distance, feeding duration, food availability, food quality, travel speed

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Longondjo Etambakonga Clement

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Local municipality responsible for solid waste management (SWM) in many developing countries is facing real challenge. This is even more critical in the country facing political instability. Few decades ago, it has emerged new urban governance including partnerships and involvement of formal and informal actors for an effective and sustainable solid waste management. This paper identifies SWM actors and analyzes their roles to sustainable development in Kinshasa. An attempt has been to examine the challenges facing the actors in managing effectively waste in the city. The study is based on the empirical data gathered in the years 2009 and 2014 in Kinshasa using expert interviews, observation and documentation. The findings indicate that solid waste in the city is poorly managed, activities not coordinated and fragmented, as consequence severe public health and environmental problems. Five group actors are involved in SWM in the city including government, private business, NGOs/CBOs/donors, household, scavengers, in which, scavengers are more visible in collection and recycling activities. The results suggest that recognition of informal collectors and recyclers (scavengers) and strengthening alliances among all SWM stakeholders can lead to greater effective SWM in the city. The key lessons learned include lack of city’s SWM culture over SWM, unwillingness to pay and lack of environmental consciences are the main obstructions to sustainable SWM, therefore there is a need for social capital approach to empower individual and group actors as to create capabilities for an sustainable SWM.

Keywords: challenges, institutions, political instability, scavengers, solid waste management, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Rajarshi Sharma, Rashidul Alam, Visavino Seleyi, Yuvila Sangtam

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The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationship of rainfall amounts is one of the most commonly used tools in water resources engineering for planning, design and operation of water resources project, or for various engineering projects against design floods. The establishment of such relationships was reported as early as in 1932 (Bernard). Since then many sets of relationships have been constructed for several parts of the globe. The objective of this research is to derive IDF relationship of rainfall for western watershed of Guwahati, Assam. These relationships are useful in the design of urban drainage works, e.g. storm sewers, culverts and other hydraulic structures. In the study, rainfall depth for 10 years viz. 2001 to 2010 has been collected from the Regional Meteorological Centre Borjhar, Guwahati. Firstly, the data has been used to construct the mass curve for duration of more than 7 hours rainfall to calculate the maximum intensity and to form the intensity duration curves. Gumbel’s frequency analysis technique has been used to calculate the probable maximum rainfall intensities for a period of 2 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 50 yr, 100 yr from the maximum intensity. Finally, regression analysis has been used to develop the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve. Thus, from the analysis the values for the constants ‘a’,‘b’ &‘c’ have been found out. The values of ‘a’ for which the sum of the squared deviation is minimum has been found out to be 40 and when the corresponding value of ‘c’ and ‘b’ for the minimum squared deviation of ‘a’ are 0.744 and 1981.527 respectively. The results obtained showed that in all the cases the correlation coefficient is very high indicating the goodness of fit of the formulae to estimate IDF curves in the region of interest.

Keywords: intensity-duration-frequency relationship, mass curve, regression analysis, correlation coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Tianyue Wan

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Building a child-friendly city (CFC) contributes to improving the quality of urbanization. It also forms a local system committed to fulfilling children's rights and development. Yet, the work related to CFC is still at the initial stage in China. Therefore, taking Wuhan, the most populous city in central China, as the pilot city would offer some reference for other cities. Based on the analysis of theories and practice examples, this study puts forward the challenges of building a child-friendly city under the particularity of China's national conditions. To handle these challenges, this study uses four methods to collect status data: literature research, site observation, research inquiry, and semantic differential (SD). And it adopts three data analysis methods: case analysis, geographic information system (GIS) analysis, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Through data analysis, this study identifies the evaluation system and appraises the current situation of Wuhan. According to the status of Wuhan's child-friendly city, this study proposes three strategies: 1) construct the evaluation system; 2) establish a child-friendly space system integrating 'point-line-surface'; 3) build a digitalized service platform. At the same time, this study suggests building a long-term mechanism for children's participation and multi-subject supervision from laws, medical treatment, education, safety protection, social welfare, and other aspects. Finally, some conclusions of strategies about CFC are tried to be drawn to promote the highest quality of life for all citizens in Wuhan.

Keywords: action plan, child friendly city, construction strategy, urban space

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Rabah Iratni, Husain El Hasasna, Khawlah Athamneh, Halima Al Sameri, Nehla Benhalilou, Asma Al Rashedi

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Background: Cancer therapies have witnessed great advances in the recent past, however, cancer continues to be a leading cause of death, with colorectal cancer being the fourth cause of cancer-related deaths. Colorectal cancer affects both sexes equally with poor survival rate once it metastasizes. Phytochemicals, which are plant derived compounds, have been on a steady rise as anti-cancer drugs due to the accumulation of evidences that support their potential. Here, we investigated the anticancer effect of Rhus coriaria on colon cancer cells. Material and Method: Human colon cancer HT-29 cell line was used. Protein expression and protein phosphorylation were examined using Western blotting. Transcription activity was measure using Quantitative RT-PCR. Human tumoral clonogenic assay was used to assess cell survival. Senescence was assessed by the senescence-associated beta-galactosidase assay. Results: Rhus coriaria extract (RCE) was found to significantly inhibit the viability and colony growth of human HT-29 colon cancer cells. RCE induced senescence and cell cycle arrest at G1 phase. These changes were concomitant with upregulation of p21, p16, downregulation of cyclin D1, p27, c-myc and expression of Senescence-associated-β-Galactosidase activity. Moreover, RCE induced non-canonical beclin-1independent autophagy and subsequent apoptotic cell death through activation of activation caspase 8 and caspase 7. The blocking of autophagy by 3-methyladenine (3-MA) or chloroquine (CQ) reduced RCE-induced cell death. Further, RCE induced DNA damage, reduced mutant p53 protein level and downregulated phospho-AKT and phospho-mTOR, events that preceded autophagy. Mechanistically, we found that RCE inhibited the AKT and mTOR pathway, a regulator of autophagy, by promoting the proteasome-dependent degradation of both AKT and mTOR proteins. Conclusion: Our findings provide strong evidence that Rhus coriaria possesses strong anti-colon cancer activity through induction of senescence and autophagic cell death, making it a promising alternative or adjunct therapeutic candidate against colon cancer.

Keywords: autophagy, proteasome degradation, senescence, mTOR, apoptosis, Beclin-1

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Sikiru O. Aminu, Magda Ismail Abdul Mohsin, Fauziah M. Taib

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Fund collections for Waqf projects in some Muslim countries received some boost because of the resuscitation of the cash waqf concept This study envisages that such development can improve the economic empowerment of the poor in contemporary Muslim communities given appropriate collections and effective management of the Waqf institution. Recent developments in the Financial Technology (FINTECH) space portend valuable relevance in the conduct and delivery of social charitable causes such as Waqf around the world. Particularly, emerging areas in FINTECH such as Islamic Crowdfunding (ICF) and blockchain have brought about greater efficiency and effectiveness through cost reduction, faster transactions, wider access, transparency and prompt disclosure of adequate information to relevant stakeholders. These FINTECH options of ICF and blockchain provide veritable opportunities to resuscitate, re-align, synergize and magnify the Islamic Social Finance (ISF) ecosystem of Waqf, Zakat and Sodaqah to generate positive and sustainable impact to the community, environment and the economy at large, with a view to projecting the Maqasid Shari’ah (Objective of the Law Giver). To document the effect of FINTECH on Waqf, this study examined the activities of six banks in Malaysia that signed a pact to utilize FINTECH for waqf collection towards improving the economy. Semi-structured Face to Face interviews were conducted with officers in charge of Waqf in the six banks, founder of the Islamic Crowdfunding platform and senior officers in Waqaf Selangor. Content analysis was used to analyze their responses, and the emergent themes were reported verbatim. Based on the derived themes, survey questionnaires were also administered to 300 customers with respect to the Waqf’s FINTECH functionalities of the identified banks.to further confirm and strengthen the results of the interviews. Simple descriptive analysis was performed on the result of the survey questionnaire to provide clear information on the questions raised. The findings showed a disproportionate level of readiness among the banks, where few of the banks have put structure in place to increase their Waqf collections, others are at their elementary stage. However, the commitment is high across the six banks to achieve their set goals.

Keywords: blockchain, Fintech, Islamic crowdfunding, waqf

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Rogelio Omar Corona-Núñez, Alma Mendoza-Ponce

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The Tropical Dry Forest not only is one of the most important tropical ecosystems in terms of area, but also it is one of the most degraded ecosystems. However, little is known about the degradation impacts on carbon stocks, therefore in carbon emissions. There are different studies which explain its deforestation dynamics, but there is still a lack of understanding of how they correlate to carbon losses. Recently different authors have built current biomass maps for the tropics and Mexico. However, it is not clear how well they predict at the local scale, and how they can be used to estimate carbon emissions. This study quantifies the forest net carbon losses by comparing the potential carbon stocks and the different current biomass maps in the Southern Pacific coast in Oaxaca, Mexico. The results show important differences in the current biomass estimates with not a clear agreement. However, by the aggregation of the information, it is possible to infer the general patterns of biomass distribution and it can identify the driving forces of the carbon emissions. This study estimated that currently ~44% of the potential carbon stock estimated for the region is still present. A total of 6,764 GgC has been emitted due to deforestation and degradation of the forest at a rate of above ground biomass loss of 66.4 Mg ha-1. Which, ~62% of the total carbon emissions can be regarded as being due to forest degradation. Most of carbon losses were identified in places suitable for agriculture, close to rural areas and to roads while the lowest losses were accounted in places with high water stress and within the boundaries of the National Protected Area. Moreover, places not suitable for agriculture, but close to the coast showed carbon losses as a result of urban settlements.

Keywords: above ground biomass, deforestation, degradation, driving forces, tropical deciduous forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Faith Maina

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Slender leaf (Crotalaria brevidens and Crotalaria ochroleuca), African indigenous vegetables, are an important source of nutrients, income and traditional medicines in Kenya. However, their production is constrained by poor quality seed, due to lack of standardized agronomic and storage practices. Factors that affect the quality of seed in storage include the duration of storage, seed moisture, temperature, relative humidity, oxygen pressure during storage, diseases, and pests. These factors vary with the type of storage method used. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of various storage methods on seed quality of slender leaf and recommend the best methods of seed storage to the farmers in Western Kenya. Seeds from various morphotypes of slender leaf that had high germination percentage (90%) were stored in pots, jars, brown paper bags and polythene bags in Kakamega and Siaya. Other seeds were also stored in a freezer at the University of Eldoret. In Kakamega County average room temperature was 23°C and relative humidity was 85% during the storage period of May to July 2006. Between December and February 2006 the average room temperature was 26°C while relative humidity was 80% in the same county. In Siaya County, the average room temperature was 25°C and relative humidity was 80% during storage period of May to July 2006. In the same county, the average temperature was 28°C and relative humidity 65% during the period of December and February 2006. Storage duration was 90 days for each season. Seed viability and vigour, was determined for each storage method. Data obtained from storage experiments was subjected to ANOVA and T-tests using Statistical Analysis Software (SAS). Season of growth and storage methods significantly influenced seed quality in Kakamega and Siaya counties. Seeds from the long rains season had higher seed quality than those grown during the short rains season. Generally, seeds stored in pots, brown paper bags, jars and freezer had higher seed quality than those stored in polythene bags. It was concluded that in order to obtain high-quality seeds farmers should store slender leaf seeds in pots or brown paper bags or plastic jars or freezer.

Keywords: Crotalaria sp, seed, quality, storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Bhavna Rajagopal, Mrinmoyi Kulkarni

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Today women experience more menstrual cycles than their ancestors did a hundred years ago, owing to early puberty, fewer pregnancies and dietary changes. Much of the research in menstruation is located in the medical domain with a focus on physical symptoms. The research in psychology is largely concerned with premenstrual syndrome (PMS), whereas the focus in sociology is on social and cultural practices relating to menstruation. Research that simultaneously studies the physical, psychological, social and cultural aspects is lacking. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to identify socio-cultural, psychological and physical factors that interact to influence a woman’s experience of menstruation in the urban setting. The study included seven unmarried women in the age group of 24-30 and data was obtained through a focus group discussion. The transcript of the focus group discussion was thematically analysed. Two major themes relating to the self and social experience of menstruation emerged. Themes relating to the self included menarcheal experiences, self-perception, mood and management of menstrual hygiene and symptoms while themes relating to social experience included the construction of menstruation by family and peers, and cultural factors. Attitudes towards the menstrual cycle appeared to be primarily influenced by severity of symptoms and the resulting disruption to daily life. Outcomes of this study have indicated that future research needs to study menstruation and its impact on women’s wellbeing by adopting a socio-ecological approach and by collecting data using the whole cycle approach across a woman’s reproductive years.

Keywords: India, menstrual cycle, psychosocial approach, wellbeing

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Ashraf Nawaz Khan, R. Alagirusamy, Apurba Das, Puneet Mahajan

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The thermoplastic-based fibre composites are acquiring a market sector of conventional as well as thermoset composites. However, replacing the thermoset with a thermoplastic composite has never been an easy task. The inherent high viscosity of thermoplastic resin reveals poor interface properties. In this work, a homo-polymer towpreg is produced through an electrostatic powder spray coating methodology. The produced flexible towpreg offers a low melt-flow distance during the consolidation of the laminate. The reduced melt-flow distance demonstrates a homogeneous fibre/matrix distribution (and low void content) on consolidation. The composite laminate has been fabricated with two manufacturing techniques such as conventional film stack (FS) and powder-coated (PC) technique. This helps in understanding the distinct response of produced laminates on applying load since the laminates produced through the two techniques are comprised of the same constituent fibre and matrix (constant fibre volume fraction). The changed behaviour is observed mainly due to the different fibre/matrix configurations within the laminate. The interface adhesion influences the load transfer between the fibre and matrix. Therefore, it influences the elastic, plastic, and failure patterns of the laminates. Moreover, the effect of preform geometries (plain weave and satin weave structure) are also studied for corresponding composite laminates in terms of various mechanical properties. The fracture analysis is carried out to study the effect of resin at the interlacement points through micro-CT analysis. The PC laminate reveals a considerably small matrix-rich and deficient zone in comparison to the FS laminate. The different load tensile, shear, fracture toughness, and drop weight impact test) is applied to the laminates, and corresponding damage behaviour is analysed in the successive stage of failure. The PC composite has shown superior mechanical properties in comparison to the FS composite. The damage that occurs in the laminate is captured through the SEM analysis to identify the prominent mode of failure, such as matrix cracking, fibre breakage, delamination, debonding, and other phenomena.

Keywords: composite, damage, fibre, manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Sai AKhila Budaraju

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Heritage sites are an integral part of cities and carry a sense of identity to the cities/ towns, but the process of urbanization is a carrying potential threat for the loss of these heritage sites/monuments. Both Central and State Governments listed the historic Golconda fort as National Important Monument and the Heritage precinct with eight heritage-listed buildings and two historical sites respectively, for conservation and preservation, due to the presence of IT Corridor 6kms away accommodating more people in the precinct is under constant pressure. The heritage precinct possesses high property values, being a prime location connecting the IT corridor and CBD (central business district )areas. The primary objective of the study was to assess and identify the factors that are affecting the heritage precinct through Mapping and documentation, Identifying and assessing the factors through empirical analysis, Ordinal regression analysis and Hedonic Pricing Model. Ordinal regression analysis was used to identify the factors that contribute to the changes in the precinct due to urbanization. Hedonic Pricing Model was used to understand and establish a relation whether the presence of historical monuments is also a contributing factor to the property value and to what extent this influence can contribute. The above methods and field visit indicates the Physical, socio-economic factors and the neighborhood characteristics of the precinct contributing to the property values. The outturns and the potential elements derived from the analysis of the Development Control Rules were derived as recommendations to Integrate both Old and newly built environments.

Keywords: heritage planning, heritage conservation, hedonic pricing model, ordinal regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Mehak Bhandary, Sowmya J. Rao

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Introduction: The significance of the human foot and its measurements in identifying an individual has been proved a lot of times by different studies in different geographical areas and its association to the stature and gender of the individual has been justified by many researches. In our study we have used different foot measurements including the length, width, malleol height and navicular height for establishing its association to stature and gender and to find out its accuracy. The purpose of this study is to show the relation of foot measurements with stature and gender, and to derive Multiple and Logistic regression equations for stature and gender estimation in South Indian population. Materials and Methods: The subjects for this study were 200 South Indian students out of which 100 were females and 100 were males, aged between 18 to 24 years. The data for the present study included the stature, foot length, foot breath, foot malleol height, foot navicular height of both right and left foot. Descriptive statistics, T-test and Pearson correlation coefficients were derived between stature, gender and foot measurements. The stature was estimated from right and left foot measurements for both male and female South Indian population using multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis for gender estimation. Results: The means, standard deviation, stature, right and left foot measurements and T-test in male population were higher than in females. LFL (Left foot length) is more than RFL (Right Foot length) in male groups, but in female groups the length of both foot are almost equal [RFL=226.6, LFL=227.1]. There is not much of difference in means of RFW (Right foot width) and LFW (Left foot width) in both the genders. Significant difference were seen in mean values of malleol and navicular height of right and left feet in male gender. No such difference was seen in female subjects. Conclusions: The study has successfully demonstrated the correlation of foot length in stature estimation in all the three study groups in both right and left foot. Next in parameters are Foot width and malleol height in estimating stature among male and female groups. Navicular height of both right and left foot showed poor relationship with stature estimation in both male and female groups. Multiple regression equations for both right and left foot measurements to estimate stature were derived with standard error ranging from 11-12 cm in males and 10-11 cm in females. The SEE was 5.8 when both male and female groups were pooled together. The logistic regression model which was derived to determine gender showed 85% accuracy and 92.5% accuracy using right and left foot measurements respectively. We believe that stature and gender can be estimated with foot measurements in South Indian population.

Keywords: foot length, gender, stature, South Indian

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Authors: Habtamu Ayenew Asegie

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Wealth, as opposed to income or consumption, implies a more stable and permanent status. Due to natural and human-made difficulties, households' economies will be diminished, and their well-being will fall into trouble. Hence, governments and humanitarian agencies offer considerable resources for poverty and malnutrition reduction efforts. One key factor in the effectiveness of such efforts is the accuracy with which low-income or poor populations can be identified. As a result, this study aims to predict a household’s wealth status using ensemble Machine learning (ML) algorithms. In this study, design science research methodology (DSRM) is employed, and four ML algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Light Gradient Boosted Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), have been used to train models. The Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) dataset is accessed for this purpose from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA)'s database. Various data pre-processing techniques were employed, and the model training has been conducted using the scikit learn Python library functions. Model evaluation is executed using various metrics like Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, area under curve-the receiver operating characteristics (AUC-ROC), and subjective evaluations of domain experts. An optimal subset of hyper-parameters for the algorithms was selected through the grid search function for the best prediction. The RF model has performed better than the rest of the algorithms by achieving an accuracy of 96.06% and is better suited as a solution model for our purpose. Following RF, LightGBM, XGBoost, and AdaBoost algorithms have an accuracy of 91.53%, 88.44%, and 58.55%, respectively. The findings suggest that some of the features like ‘Age of household head’, ‘Total children ever born’ in a family, ‘Main roof material’ of their house, ‘Region’ they lived in, whether a household uses ‘Electricity’ or not, and ‘Type of toilet facility’ of a household are determinant factors to be a focal point for economic policymakers. The determinant risk factors, extracted rules, and designed artifact achieved 82.28% of the domain expert’s evaluation. Overall, the study shows ML techniques are effective in predicting the wealth status of households.

Keywords: ensemble machine learning, households wealth status, predictive model, wealth status prediction

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Authors: Muhammad Farhan Ul Moazzam, Tamkeen Urooj Paracha, Ghani Rahman, Byung Gul Lee, Nasir Farid, Adnan Arshad

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The novel coronavirus pandemic disease (COVID-19) affected the whole globe, though there is a lack of clinical studies and its epidemiological features. But as per the observation, it has been seen that most of the COVID-19 infected patients show mild to moderate symptoms, and they get better without any medical assistance due to a better immune system to generate antibodies against the novel coronavirus. In this study, the active cases, serious cases, recovered cases, deaths and total confirmed cases had been analyzed using the geospatial inverse distance weightage technique (IDW) within the time span of 2nd March to 3rd June 2020. As of 3rd June, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Italy were 231,238, total deaths 33,310, serious cases 350, recovered cases 158,951, and active cases were 39,177, which has been reported by the Ministry of Health, Italy. March 2nd-June 3rd, 2020 a sum of 231,238 cases has been reported in Italy out of which 38.68% cases reported in the Lombardia region with a death rate of 18%, which is high from its national mortality rate followed by Emilia-Romagna (14.89% deaths), Piemonte (12.68% deaths), and Vento (10% deaths). As per the total cases in the region, the highest number of recoveries has been observed in Umbria (92.52%), followed by Basilicata (87%), Valle d'Aosta (86.85%), and Trento (84.54%). The COVID-19 evolution in Italy has been particularly found in the major urban area, i.e., Rome, Milan, Naples, Bologna, and Florence. Geospatial technology played a vital role in this pandemic by tracking infected patient, active cases, and recovered cases. Geospatial techniques are very important in terms of monitoring and planning to control the pandemic spread in the country.

Keywords: COVID-19, public health, geospatial analysis, IDW, Italy

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: A. Saghatelyan, Sh. Asmaryan, G. Tepanosyan, V. Muradyan

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One of major concern to Armenia has been soil degradation emerged as a result of unsustainable management and use of grasslands, this in turn largely impacting environment, agriculture and finally human health. Hence, assessment of soil degradation is an essential and urgent objective set out to measure its possible consequences and develop a potential management strategy. Since recently, an essential tool for assessing pasture degradation has been remote sensing (RS) technologies. This research was done with an intention to measure preciseness of Linear spectral unmixing (LSU) and NDVI-SMA methods to estimate soil surface components related to degradation (fractional vegetation cover-FVC, bare soils fractions, surface rock cover) and determine appropriateness of these methods for mapping man-induced soil degradation in high mountain pastures. Taking into consideration a spatially complex and heterogeneous biogeophysical structure of the studied site, we used high resolution multispectral QuickBird imagery of a pasture site in one of Armenia’s rural communities - Nerkin Sasoonashen. The accuracy assessment was done by comparing between the land cover abundance data derived through RS methods and the ground truth land cover abundance data. A significant regression was established between ground truth FVC estimate and both NDVI-LSU and LSU - produced vegetation abundance data (R2=0.636, R2=0.625, respectively). For bare soil fractions linear regression produced a general coefficient of determination R2=0.708. Because of poor spectral resolution of the QuickBird imagery LSU failed with assessment of surface rock abundance (R2=0.015). It has been well documented by this particular research, that reduction in vegetation cover runs in parallel with increase in man-induced soil degradation, whereas in the absence of man-induced soil degradation a bare soil fraction does not exceed a certain level. The outcomes show that the proposed method of man-induced soil degradation assessment through FVC, bare soil fractions and field data adequately reflects the current status of soil degradation throughout the studied pasture site and may be employed as an alternate of more complicated models for soil degradation assessment.

Keywords: Armenia, linear spectral unmixing, remote sensing, soil degradation

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Authors: Priyanka Dixit

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Reproductive health problem is an important public health issue in most of the developing countries like India. It is a common problem in India for women in the reproductive age group to suffer from reproductive illnesses and not seek care. Existing literatures tell us very little about the several dimensions of reproductive morbidity. In addition the general perception says, metros have better medical infrastructure, so its residents should lead a healthier life. However some of the studies reveal a very different picture. Therefore, the present study is conducted with the specific objectives to find out the prevalence of reproductive health problem and treatment seeking behavior of currently married women in four metro cities in India namely; Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Kolkata. In addition, this paper also examines the effect of socio-economic and demographic factors on self-reported reproductive health problems. Bi-variate and multivariate regression have been applied to achieve the proposed objectives. Study is based on National Family Health Survey 2015-16 data. The analysis shows that the prevalence of any reproductive health problem among women is the highest in Mumbai followed by Delhi, Chennai, and Kolkata. A bulk of women in all four metro cities has reported abdominal pain, itching and burning sensation as the major problems while urinating. However, in spite of the high prevalence of reproductive health problems, a huge proportion of such women in all these cities do not seek any advice or treatment for these problems. This study also investigates determinants that affect the prevalence of reproductive health problem to policy makers plan for proper interventions for improving women’s reproductive health.

Keywords: reproductive health, India, national family health survey-4, city

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Authors: Moses Aron, Elias Mwakilama, Jimmy Namangale

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Spending more time on long queues for a basic service remains a common challenge to most developing countries, including Malawi. For health sector in particular, Out-Patient Department (OPD) experiences long queues. This puts the lives of patients at risk. However, using queuing analysis to under the nature of the problems and efficiency of service systems, such problems can be abated. Based on a kind of service, literature proposes different possible queuing models. However, unlike using generalized assumed models proposed by literature, use of real time case study data can help in deeper understanding the particular problem model and how such a model can vary from one day to the other and also from each case to another. As such, this study uses data obtained from one urban HC for BP, Pediatric and General OPD cases to investigate an average queuing time for patients within the system. It seeks to highlight the proper queuing model by investigating the kind of distributions functions over patient’s arrival time, inter-arrival time, waiting time and service time. Comparable with the standard set values by WHO, the study found that patients at this HC spend more waiting times than service times. On model investigation, different days presented different models ranging from an assumed M/M/1, M/M/2 to M/Er/2. As such, through sensitivity analysis, in general, a commonly assumed M/M/1 model failed to fit the data but rather an M/Er/2 demonstrated to fit well. An M/Er/3 model seemed to be good in terms of measuring resource utilization, proposing a need to increase medical personnel at this HC. However, an M/Er/4 showed to cause more idleness of human resources.

Keywords: health care, out-patient department, queuing model, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: P. S. Hsi, Y. F. Wang, Y. F. Ho, P. C. Hung

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The aim of the present study was to explore the dermal exposure assessment model of chemicals that have been developed abroad and to evaluate the feasibility of chemical dermal exposure assessment model for manufacturing industry in Taiwan. We conducted and analyzed six semi-quantitative risk management tools, including UK - Control of substances hazardous to health ( COSHH ) Europe – Risk assessment of occupational dermal exposure ( RISKOFDERM ), Netherlands - Dose related effect assessment model ( DREAM ), Netherlands – Stoffenmanager ( STOFFEN ), Nicaragua-Dermal exposure ranking method ( DERM ) and USA / Canada - Public Health Engineering Department ( PHED ). Five types of manufacturing industry were selected to evaluate. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the sensitivity of each factor, and the correlation between the assessment results of each semi-quantitative model and the exposure factors used in the model was analyzed to understand the important evaluation indicators of the dermal exposure assessment model. To assess the effectiveness of the semi-quantitative assessment models, this study also conduct quantitative dermal exposure results using prediction model and verify the correlation via Pearson's test. Results show that COSHH was unable to determine the strength of its decision factor because the results evaluated at all industries belong to the same risk level. In the DERM model, it can be found that the transmission process, the exposed area, and the clothing protection factor are all positively correlated. In the STOFFEN model, the fugitive, operation, near-field concentrations, the far-field concentration, and the operating time and frequency have a positive correlation. There is a positive correlation between skin exposure, work relative time, and working environment in the DREAM model. In the RISKOFDERM model, the actual exposure situation and exposure time have a positive correlation. We also found high correlation with the DERM and RISKOFDERM models, with coefficient coefficients of 0.92 and 0.93 (p<0.05), respectively. The STOFFEN and DREAM models have poor correlation, the coefficients are 0.24 and 0.29 (p>0.05), respectively. According to the results, both the DERM and RISKOFDERM models are suitable for performance in these selected manufacturing industries. However, considering the small sample size evaluated in this study, more categories of industries should be evaluated to reduce its uncertainty and enhance its applicability in the future.

Keywords: dermal exposure, risk management, quantitative estimation, feasibility evaluation

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Authors: Chen Wang, Jared Evans, Yan Asmann

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With the quick evolvement of next-generation sequencing techniques, whole-exome or exome-panel data have become a cost-effective way for detection of small exonic mutations, but there has been a growing desire to accurately detect copy number variations (CNVs) as well. In order to address this research and clinical needs, we developed a sequencing coverage pattern-based method not only for copy number detections, data integrity checks, CNV calling, and visualization reports. The developed methodologies include complete automation to increase usability, genome content-coverage bias correction, CNV segmentation, data quality reports, and publication quality images. Automatic identification and removal of poor quality outlier samples were made automatically. Multiple experimental batches were routinely detected and further reduced for a clean subset of samples before analysis. Algorithm improvements were also made to improve somatic CNV detection as well as germline CNV detection in trio family. Additionally, a set of utilities was included to facilitate users for producing CNV plots in focused genes of interest. We demonstrate the somatic CNV enhancements by accurately detecting CNVs in whole exome-wide data from the cancer genome atlas cancer samples and a lymphoma case study with paired tumor and normal samples. We also showed our efficient reuses of existing exome sequencing data, for improved germline CNV calling in a family of the trio from the phase-III study of 1000 Genome to detect CNVs with various modes of inheritance. The performance of the developed method is evaluated by comparing CNV calling results with results from other orthogonal copy number platforms. Through our case studies, reuses of exome sequencing data for calling CNVs have several noticeable functionalities, including a better quality control for exome sequencing data, improved joint analysis with single nucleotide variant calls, and novel genomic discovery of under-utilized existing whole exome and custom exome panel data.

Keywords: bioinformatics, computational genetics, copy number variations, data reuse, exome sequencing, next generation sequencing

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Authors: Ishaq Alhassan Meriga

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This study examined the phenomenon of mob violence and its implication for peace in Ghana. The study used the archival study of media reports and content analysis of other secondary data as well as eyewitness accounts. The study examined trends and patterns of vigilante violence within the Ghanaian context. Results showed a considerable increase in the occurrence of mob violence within the last 10 years. Theft and robbery emerged as the most frequently suspected crimes for which victims were attacked, while the LGBT community is not left out. Cases of mob violence were most frequently reported in urban areas. This study has shown that the patterns, scope, nature, and implication of mob justice in Ghana are fairly and comparatively similar to those found in other parts of Africa and the globe. Mob violence is identified as undermining the rule of law and thereby infringing on the fundamental human rights of the victims. It is confirmed to have a cycle of effects that is an impediment to the peace of the country. The study underscores the implications of mob violence in terms of disdaining human life and dignity, revisiting our justice systems and punishment procedures, resourcing, and empowering law enforcers to fight the menace of vigilantism. First, the archival study had a limitation regarding missing data. The majority of the cases used for the study lack information mostly on perpetrators and the steps taken by public authorities and security agencies after reports of a mob attack have been lodged with them. The study recommends for further research to be undertaken on the perpetrators and survivors of mob actions in order to get a holistic understanding of the phenomenon. This will give a more comprehensive view of the issue of mob violence in Ghana. From the findings, it can be concluded that mob justice is a social canker in Ghanaian communities, which has a great impact on the peace of the country.

Keywords: LGBT, mob justice, peace, vigilantism

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Authors: Han Song, Tingting Wei, Dong Chen

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The combination of capital and rural areas in China has shown its great significance in promoting urban-rural integration and new-style urbanization, enhancing regional capacity for sustainable rural development and optimizing human settlement environment. The purpose of this study is to find capital operation mechanism in rural area and rural planning guidance in China. Based on case studies in Chinese rural areas, two types of capital operation mechanism in rural areas are summed up: intervention in the field of agriculture promoting the upgrading and innovation of agricultural industry chain, intervention in rural life and leisure areas updating rural connotation and form. In the light of experiences in Japan and Taiwan, it is proposed that government's norms and guidance, rural investment intensity and rural self-organization are three important factors for capital to drive rural development. It is also found that the unique land tenure and rural governance tradition are two important factors effecting the combination of capital and rural regions in China, which requires full attention in rational policy-making and rural planning. It comes to a conclusion as four directions of the overall reform of the rural planning: targeting at enhancing the viability of rural and sustainable capacity, encouraging differences in investment incentives and planning policies, providing land usage in the rural areas with planning support and reforming the village system. Directional guidance is also made for different types of capital investments, suggesting that capital should be rooted in agriculture and rural land to benefit farmers and update human settlements.

Keywords: capital, rural areas, rural planning, rural governance

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Authors: Gayathri.G, Hemamalini.A.J, Chandrasekaran.A

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Problem statement: Nutritional deficiency, especially calcium, may lead to poor bone formation and mineralization. Although there are plenty of synthetic supplements available, it is essential to make a calcium rich food supplement accessible to combat calcium deficiency that could be readily prepared at the household level. Thus the current study aimed to formulate and standardize an indigenous low-cost calcium-rich food supplement and to study the impact of supplementation on the bone resorption and formation markers. Methods: A Randomized controlled trial was conducted with 60 subjects distributed equally in control and experimental groups, including perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. A plant-based calcium-rich product was developed and supplemented in form of balls as a midmorning and evening snack by addition of optimized proportions of leaves of Sesbania Grandiflora, seeds of Sesamum indicum, Eleusine coracana, Glycine max, Vigna mungo for a period of 6 months. Postmenopausal and perimenopausal women received 1200mg and 800mg of calcium per day from the supplemented, respectively. Outcome measures like serum calcium; betacrosslaps (bone resorption marker) and total P1NP (bone absorption marker) were assessed after 3 months and after 6 months. Results: There were no significant changes seen in the serum calcium and total P1NP levels (bone formation marker) among the subjects during the supplementation period. The bone resorption marker (betacrosslaps) reduced in all the groups and the reduction (0.32 ± 0.130 ng/ml to 0.25 ± 0.130 ng/ml) was found to be statistically highly significant (p < 0.01) in experimental group of perimenopausal subjects and significant (p < 0.05) in experimental group of postmenopausal subjects (1.11 ± 0.290 ng/ml to 0.42 ± 0.263 ng/ml). Conclusion: With the current severe calcium deficiency in the Indian population, integrating low-cost, calcium-rich native foods that could be readily prepared at household level would be useful in raising the nutritional consumption of calcium, which would, in turn, decrease bone turnover.

Keywords: calcium, sesbania grandiflora, sesamum indicum, eleusine coracana, glycine max, vigna mungo, postmenopause, perimenopause, bone resorption, bone absorption, betacrosslaps, total P1NP

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Authors: Nemat Mohammadi, Yuki Nakayama

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After occurring Great East Japan earthquake and as a consequence the invasion of an extremely large Tsunami to the city, obligated many local governments to take into account certainly these kinds of issues. Poor preparation of local governments to deal with such kinds of disasters at that time and consequently lack of assistance delivery for local residents caused thousands of civilian casualties as well as billion dollars of economic damages. Those local governments who are responsible for governing such coastal areas, have to consider some countermeasures to deal with these natural disasters, prepare a comprehensive evacuation plan and contrive some feasible emergency plans for the purpose of victims’ reduction as much as possible. Under this evacuation plan, the local government should contemplate more about the traffic congestion during wide-area evacuation operation and estimate the minimum essential time to evacuate the whole city completely. This challenge will become more complicated for the government when the people who are affected by disasters are not only limited to the normal informed citizens but also some pregnant women, physically handicapped persons, old age citizens and foreigners or tourists who are not familiar with that conditions as well as local language are involved. The important issue to deal with this challenge is that how to inform these people to take a proper action right away noticing the Tsunami is coming. After overcoming this problem, next significant challenge is even more considerable. Next challenge is to evacuate the whole residents in a short period of time from the threated area to the safer shelters. In fact, most of the citizens will use their own vehicles to evacuate to the designed shelters and some of them will use the shuttle buses which are provided by local governments. The problem will arise when all residents want to escape from the threated area simultaneously and consequently creating a traffic jam on evacuation routes which will cause to prolong the evacuation time. Hence, this research mostly aims to calculate the minimum essential time to evacuate each region inside the threated area and find the evacuation start point for each region separately. This result will help the local government to visualize the situations and conditions during disasters and assist them to reduce the possible traffic jam on evacuation routes and consequently suggesting a comprehensive wide-area evacuation plan during natural disasters.

Keywords: BPR formula, disaster scenarios, evacuation completion time, wide-area evacuation

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Authors: Yasser Y. Lenis, Daniela Garcia Gonzalez, Cristian Solarte Bacca, Diego F. Carrillo González, Amy Jo Montgomery, Dursun Barrios

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Introduction: Artificial insemination in bovines helps to promote genetic improvement and can positively impact the rural economy. The Colombian armed conflict has forced a large portion of the rural population to abandon their territory, affecting their education, family integration, and economics. Justification: The achievement of education in rural populations was one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) made by the United Nations. During the last World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), it was concluded that most of the world’s poor, illiterate and undernourished population lives in rural areas; therefore, access to education is considered one of the most significant challenges for governments in countries with developing economies. Objectives: To study the effects of training in artificial insemination and rural management on the perception of knowledge and the level of knowledge in rural residents affected by the armed conflict in Nariño, Colombia. Methods: The perception of knowledge and the theoretical-practical knowledge of 63 rural residents were evaluated on the topics of bovine agribusiness management, artificial insemination, and genetic improvement through the application of three surveys. 1) evaluated the perceived level of knowledge each rural resident had about each topic using the Likert scale, 2) evaluated the theoretical knowledge before training, and 3) evaluated the theoretical knowledge upon completion of training. Results/discussion: Of the surveyed rural residents, 54% stated that they knew how business management improved the performance of their bovine agribusiness, 54% answered the pre-training knowledge test correctly, while 83% correctly answered the post-training knowledge test. Only 6% of surveyed residents perceived that they had prior knowledge of artificial insemination and reproductive anatomy topics. Before training, 35% of surveyed residents answered correctly on these topics, while upon completion of training, 65% answered correctly. Regarding genetic improvement, 11% of participating rural residents stated that they knew this subject. The correct answers on this topic went from 57% to 89% before and post-training. Conclusion: Rural extension programs contribute to closing knowledge gaps in relation to the use of reproductive biotechnologies and bovine management in rural areas affected by armed conflict.

Keywords: agribusiness, insemination, knowledge, reproduction

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Authors: Masome Moeni, Roya Abedizadeh, Elham Aram, Hamid Sadeghi-Abandansari, Davood Sabour, Robert Menzel, Ali Hassanpour

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Significant number of studies and preclinical research in formulation of cancer nano-pharmaceutics have led to an improvement in cancer care. Nonetheless, the antineoplastic agents have ‘failed to live up to its promise’ since their clinical performance is moderately low. For almost ninety years, iron oxide nanoparticles (IONPS) have managed to keep its reputation in clinical application due to their low toxicity, versatility and multi-modal capabilities. Drug Administration approved utilization of IONPs for diagnosis of cancer as contrast media in magnetic resonance imaging, as heat mediator in magnetic hyperthermia and for the treatment of iron deficiency. Furthermore, IONPs have high drug-loading capacity, which makes them good candidates as therapeutic agent transporters. There are yet challenges to overcome for successful clinical application of IONPs, including stability of drug and poor delivery, which might lead to (i) drug resistance, (ii) shorter blood circulation time, and (iii) rapid elimination and adverse side effects from the system. In this study, highly stable and super paramagnetic IONPs were prepared for efficient and targeted drug delivery in cancer treatment. The synthesis procedure was briefly involved the production of IONPs via co-precipitation followed by coating with tetraethyl orthosilicate and 3-aminopropylethoxysilane and grafting with folic acid for stability targeted purposes and controlled drug release. Physiochemical and morphological properties of modified IONPs were characterised using different analytical techniques. The resultant IONPs exhibited clusters of 10 nm spherical shape crystals with less than 100 nm size suitable for drug delivery. The functionalized IONP showed mesoporous features, high stability, dispersibility and crystallinity. Subsequently, the functionalized IONPs were successfully loaded with oxaliplatin, a chemotherapeutic agent, for a controlled drug release in an actively targeting cancer cells. FT-IR observations confirmed presence of oxaliplatin functional groups, while ICP-MS results verified the drug loading was ~ 1.3%.

Keywords: cancer treatment, chemotherapeutic agent, drug delivery, iron oxide, multi-functional nanoparticle

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Authors: Sofie Dewayani, Pratiwi Retnaningdyah

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Literacy practice is situated within the identity enactment in a particular time and space. The literacy practices in public places, ranging from city parks, urban slums to city roads are meeting places of discursive practices produced by dynamic interactions, and sometimes contestations, of social powers and capitals. The present paper examines the ways the literacy activists construct their sense of space in attempts to develop possibilities for literacy programs as they are sent to work with marginalized communities far away from their hometowns in Indonesia. In particular, this paper analyzes the activists’ reflections of identity enactment - othering, familiarity, and sense of comfort - as they are trying to make meaning of the communities’ literacy capitals and practices in the process of adapting with the communities. Data collected for this paper were travel diaries - serving as literacy narratives - obtained from a literacy residency program sponsored by the Indonesian Ministry of Education and Culture. The residency program itself involved 30 youths (18 to 30 years old) to work with marginalized communities in literacy activism programs. This paper analyzes the written narratives of four focal participants using Bakhtin’s chronotopes - the configurations of time and space - that figure into the youth’s meaning-making of literacy as well as their exercise of power and identity. Follow-up interviews were added to enrich the analysis. The analysis considers the youth’s ‘moment of departure’ a critical point in their reconstructions of self and space. This paper expands the discussions of literacy discourse and spatiality while lending its supports to literacy activism in highly diverse multicultural settings.

Keywords: chronotopes, discourse, identity, literacy activism

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Authors: Getahun Nigusie Demise

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Background; antiretroviral treatment reduce HIV-related morbidity, and prolonged survival of patients however, there is lack of up-to-date information concerning the treatment long term effect on the survival of HIV positive children especially in the study area. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the incidence and predictors of mortality among HIV positive children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in public hospitals of Harer town who were enrolled from 2011 to 2021. Methodology: Institution based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 HIV positive children enrolled in ART clinic from January 1st 2011 to December30th 2021. Data were collected from medical cards by using a data extraction form, Descriptive analyses were used to Summarized the results, and life table was used to estimate survival probability at specific point of time after introduction of ART. Kaplan Meier survival curve together with log rank test was used to compare survival between different categories of covariates, and Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate adjusted Hazard rate. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables. Results: The study participants had followed for a total of 2549.6 child-years (30596 child months) with an overall mortality rate of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.04) per 100 child-years. Their median survival time was 112 months (95% CI: 101–117). There were 38 children with unknown outcome, 39 deaths, and 55 children transfer out to different facility. The overall survival at 6, 12, 24, 48 months were 98%, 96%, 95%, 94% respectively. being in WHO clinical Stage four (AHR=4.55, 95% CI:1.36, 15.24), having anemia(AHR=2.56, 95% CI:1.11, 5.93), baseline low absolute CD4 count (AHR=2.95, 95% CI: 1.22, 7.12), stunting (AHR=4.1, 95% CI: 1.11, 15.42), wasting (AHR=4.93, 95% CI: 1.31, 18.76), poor adherence to treatment (AHR=3.37, 95% CI: 1.25, 9.11), having TB infection at enrollment (AHR=3.26, 95% CI: 1.25, 8.49),and no history of change their regimen(AHR=7.1, 95% CI: 2.74, 18.24), were independent predictors of death. Conclusion: more than half of death occurs within 2 years. Prevalent tuberculosis, anemia, wasting, and stunting nutritional status, socioeconomic factors, and baseline opportunistic infection were independent predictors of death. Increasing early screening and managing those predictors are required.

Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus-positive children, anti-retroviral therapy, survival, treatment, Ethiopia

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