Search results for: health crisis retail investors

Authors: Wael Bakhit, Salma Bakhit

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This paper employs a quarterly time series to determine the timing of structural breaks for interest rates in USA over the last 60 years. The Chow test is used for investigating the non-stationary, where the date of the potential break is assumed to be known. Moreover, an empirical examination of the financial sector was made to check if it is positively related to deviations from an assumed interest rate as given in a standard Taylor rule. The empirical analysis is strengthened by analysing the rule from a historical perspective and a look at the effect of setting the interest rate by the central bank on financial imbalances. The empirical evidence indicates that deviation in monetary policy has a potential causal factor in the build-up of financial imbalances and the subsequent crisis where macro prudential intervention could have beneficial effect. Thus, our findings tend to support the view which states that the probable existence of central banks has been a source of global financial crisis since the past decade.

Keywords: Taylor rule, financial imbalances, central banks, econometrics

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Authors: Katarzyna Kamińska

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When thinking about custodial arrangements after divorce or separation, there has been a shift from sole custody, particularly maternal preference, to joint physical custody. In many Western countries, an increasing of children with separated parents have joint physical custody, which is believed to be in the best interests of the child, as children can maintain personal relations and direct contact with both parents on a regular basis. The aim of the article is to examine joint physical custody, both from the perspective of the binding legal instruments that are relevant to joint physical custody, the Principles of European Family Law drafted by the CEFL, as well as the international research on this matter. The thesis underlying this paper is that joint physical custody is in itself neither good nor bad, and it depends on how the arrangements are managed by the parents. The paper includes a reflection on joint physical custody in the face of the COVID-19 crisis. The results indicate that in normal circumstances, joint physical custody demands broad communication, and now it times of crisis, we need over-communication about children and plans. Only a very tight and coordinated co-parenting plan make the whole family safer.

Keywords: joint physical custody, co-parenting, child welfare, COVID-19

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Authors: Ilona Krone

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Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of perinatal/postnatal negative health outcomes; however, only 1 in 5 pregnant smokers quit smoking. That is a clinical and public health problem. Pregnant smokers have negative paternal support, and higher levels of perceived stress than non-smokers and quitters return to smoking in a stressful situation. A crisis like the COVID-19 outbreak causes significant uncertainty and stress. For pregnant women, additional stress may increase due to concerns for their fetus. Strategies targeting maternal stress and isolation may be particularly useful to prevent negative outcomes for women and their fetuses. Within the post-doctoral study, cooperating with leading specialists, an innovative program for pregnant smokers will be developed. Feasibility for reducing craving, distress intolerance, Covid 19 related stress, and fear in pregnant women in Latvia will be assessed.

Keywords: COVID 19, mindfulness, motivation, pregnancy, smoking cessation

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Authors: Bakr Ali Al-Gamrh, Ku Nor Izah B. Ku Ismail

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We investigate the relationship between corporate governance, leverage, risk, and firm performance. We use a firm level panel that spans the period 2008 to 2012 of all listed firms on Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange and Dubai Financial Market. After constructing an index of corporate governance strength, we find a negative effect of corporate governance on firm performance. We, however, discover that corporate governance strength indirectly improves the negative influence of leverage on firm performance in normal times. On the contrary, the results completely reversed when there is a black swan event. Corporate governance strength plays a significantly negative role in moderating the relationship between leverage and firm performance during the financial crisis. We also reveal that corporate governance strength increases firms’ risk and deteriorates performance during crisis. Results provide evidence that corporate governance indirectly plays a completely different role in different time periods.

Keywords: corporate governance, firm performance, risk, leverage, the UAE

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Daniel C. S. Lim, W. Y. Tan

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The world is facing a growing food crisis. The concerns of food nutritional value, food safety and food security are becoming increasingly real. There is also a direct relationship to the risk of diseases, particularly chronic diseases, to the food we consume. So, there are increasing concerns about the modern day food ecosystem creating foods that can provide the nutritional components for organ function sustenance, as well as, taking a serious view on diet-related diseases. This paper addresses some of the above concerns and gives an overview of the current global situation relating to food nutrition and safety. The paper reviews nutritional aspects of food today compared to those of the last century, compares whole foods found in supermarkets versus those organically grown, as well as population behaviour towards food choices. It provides scientific insights into the effects of some of the global trends such as climate change and other changes environmental changes, and presents what individuals and corporations are doing to use the latest nutritional technologies as strategic assets. Finally, it briefly highlights some of the innovative solutions that are being applied to address several of the above concerns.

Keywords: food crisis, food safety, global trends, nutritional aspects

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Authors: Kadhim Alabady

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Purpose: Mental health problems affect women and men equally, but some are more common among women. To Provide a baseline of the current picture of major mental health challenges among women in Dubai. which can then be used to measure the impact of interventions or service development. Method: We have used mixed methods evaluation approaches. This was used to increase the validity of findings by using a variety of data collection techniques. We have integrated qualitative and quantitative methods in this piece of work. Conducting the two approaches is to explore issues that might not be highlighted enough through one method. Results: The key findings are: The prevalence of people who suffer from different types of mental disorders remains largely unknown, many women are unwilling to seek professional help because of lack of awareness or the stigma attached to it. -It is estimated there were around 2,928–4,392 mothers in Dubai (2014) suffering from postnatal depression of which 858–1,287, early intervention can be effective. -The system for managing health care for women with mental illness is fragmented and contains gaps and duplications. -It is estimated 1,029 girl aged 13–19 years affected with anorexia nervosa and there would be an estimated 1,029 girl aged 13–19 years affected with anorexia nervosa. Recommendations: -Work is required with primary health care in order to identify women with undiagnosed mental illnesses. Further work is undertaken within primary health care to assess disease registries with the aim of helping GP practices to improve their disease registers. -It is important to conduct local psychiatric morbidity surveys in Dubai to obtain data and assess the prevalence of essential mental health symptoms and conditions that are not routinely collected to get a clear sense of what is needed and to assist decision and policy making in getting a complete picture on what services are required. -Emergency Mental Health Care – there is a need for a crisis response team to respond to emergencies in the community. -Continuum of care – a significant gap in the services for women once they diagnosed with mental disorder.

Keywords: mental health, depression, schizophrenia, women

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Authors: Gordana Kordić, Petra Palić

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The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.

Keywords: currency board arrangement, internal devaluation, exchange rate regime, great recession

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Authors: Jiří Barta, Oldřich Svoboda, Jiří F. Urbánek

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In this paper will be discussed two coin´s sides of crisis scenarios dynamics. On the one's side is negative role of subsidiary scenario branches in its compactness weakening by means unduly chaotic atomizing, having many interactive feedbacks cases, increasing a value of a complexity here. This negative role reflects the complexity of use cases, weakening leader compliancy, which brings something as a ´readiness for controlling capabilities provision´. Leader´s dissatisfaction has zero compliancy, but factual it is a ´crossbar´ (interface in fact) between planning and executing use cases. On the other side of this coin, an advantage of rich scenarios embranchment is possible to see in a support of response awareness, readiness, preparedness, adaptability, creativity and flexibility. Here rich scenarios embranchment contributes to the steadiness and resistance of scenario mission actors. These all will be presented in live power-points ´Blazons´, modelled via DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) on the Conference.

Keywords: leadership, controlling, complexity, DYVELOP, scenarios

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Authors: Shazwanis Shukri

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The Mediterranean Sea, at the crossroads of three continents has always been the focus of pan-European and worldwide attention. Over the past decade, the Mediterranean Sea has become a hotbed for irregular migration particularly from the African continent toward the Europe. Among the major transit routes in the Mediterranean Sea include the Strait of Gibraltar, Canary Island and island of Lampedusa. In recent years, Mediterranean Sea has witnessed significant numbers of accidents and shipwrecks involving the irregular migrants and refugees trying to reach Europe via the sea. The shipwrecks and traffickers exploitation of migrants draw most of the attention particularly for the European Union (EU). This incident has been a wakeup call for the EU and become the top political agenda in the EU policy to tackle irregular migration and human smuggling at sea. EU has repeatedly addressed irregular migration as one of the threats the EU and its citizens may be confronted with and therefore immediate measures are crucial to tackle the crisis. In light of this, various initiatives have been adopted by the EU to strengthen external border control and restrict access to irregular migrants, notably through the enforcement of Frontex and Eunavfor Med. This paper analyses current development of counter-migration operations by the EU in response to migration crisis in the Mediterranean Sea. The analysis is threefold. First, this study examines the patterns and trends of irregular migration’s movements from recent perspective. Second, this study concentrates on the evolution of the EU operations that are in place in the Mediterranean Sea, notably by Frontex and Eunavfor Med to curb the influx of irregular migrants to the European countries, including, among others, Greece and Italy. Third, this study investigates the EU approaches to fight against the proliferation of human trafficking networks at sea. This study is essential to determine the roles of the EU in tackling migration crisis and human trafficking in the Mediterranean Sea and the effectiveness of their counter-migration operations to reduce the number of irregular migrants travelling via the sea. Elite interviews and document analysis were used as a methodology in this study. The study discovers that the EU operations have successfully contributed to reduce the numbers of irregular migrant’s arrival to Europe. The study also shows that the operations were effective to disrupt smugglers business models particularly from Libya. This study provides essential understanding about the roles of the EU not limited to tackle the migration crisis and disrupt trafficking networks, but also pledged to prevent further loss of lives at sea.

Keywords: European union, frontex, irregular migration, Mediterranean sea

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Authors: Francesca Spagnoli, Shenja van der Graaf, Pieter Ballon

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Humans do not behave rationally. We are emotional, easily influenced by others, as well as by our context. The study of human behaviour became a supreme endeavour within many academic disciplines, including economics, sociology, and clinical and social psychology. Understanding what motivates humans and triggers them to perform certain activities, and what it takes to change their behaviour, is central both for researchers and companies, as well as policy makers to implement efficient public policies. While numerous theoretical approaches for diverse domains such as health, retail, environment have been developed, the methodological models guiding the evaluation of such research have reached for a long time their limits. Within this context, digitisation, the Information and communication technologies (ICT) and wearable, the Internet of Things (IoT) connecting networks of devices, and new possibilities to collect and analyse massive amounts of data made it possible to study behaviour from a realistic perspective, as never before. Digital technologies make it possible to (1) capture data in real-life settings, (2) regain control over data by capturing the context of behaviour, and (3) analyse huge set of information through continuous measurement. Within this complex context, this paper describes a new framework for initiating behavioural change, capitalising on the digital developments in applied research projects and applicable both to academia, enterprises and policy makers. By applying this model, behavioural research can be conducted to address the issues of different domains, such as mobility, environment, health or media. The Modular Behavioural Analysis Approach (MBAA) is here described and firstly validated through a concrete use case within the domain of health. The results gathered have proven that disclosing information about health in connection with the use of digital apps for health, can be a leverage for changing behaviour, but it is only a first component requiring further follow-up actions. To this end, a clear definition of different 'behavioural profiles', towards which addressing several typologies of interventions, it is essential to effectively enable behavioural change. In the refined version of the MBAA a strong focus will rely on defining a methodology for shaping 'behavioural profiles' and related interventions, as well as the evaluation of side-effects on the creation of new business models and sustainability plans.

Keywords: behavioural change, framework, health, nudging, sustainability

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Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis, Apostolos I. Linardis

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Health2020 is a promising framework of policies provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and aiming to diminish the health and well-being inequalities among the citizens of the European Union (EU) countries. The major demographic, social and environmental changes, in addition to the resent economic crisis prevent the unobstructed and successful implementation of this framework. The unemployment rates and the percentage of people at risk of poverty have increased among the citizens of EU countries. At the same time, the adopted fiscal, economic policies do not help governments to serve their social role and mitigate social and health inequalities. In those circumstances, there is a strong pressure to organize all health system resources efficiently and wisely. In order to provide a unified and value-based framework of valuation, we propose a valuation framework using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and dynamic DEA. We believe that the adopted methodology could provide a robust tool which can capture the degree of success with which policies have been implemented and is capable to determine which of the countries developed the requested policies efficiently and which of the countries have been lagged. Using the proposed methodology, we evaluated the performance of 28 EU member-countries in relation to the Health2020 peripheral targets. We adopted several versions of evaluation, measuring the effectiveness and the efficiency of EU countries from 2011 to 2016. Our results showed stability in technological changes and revealed a group of countries which were benchmarks in most of the years for the inefficient countries.

Keywords: DEA, Health2020, health inequalities, malmquist index, policies evaluation, well-being

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Authors: Yuan Zhang, Xin Fu, Yixin Tan

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Gender role conflict is a key factor influencing the mental health condition of adolescents. It has a strong connection with the noticeably growing mental health crisis of high school students. This study elucidates the relationship between gender role conflict and reports of subjective well-being of teenagers through mixed-methods empirical research based on surveys conducted in two Chinese cities, namely Shenzhen and Yuxi. These two cities are from two provinces of very distinct economic and cultural backgrounds. We believe a comparison between the two cities reveals the unequally distributed social conditions in China. We found that teenagers who possess a higher degree of gender role conflict tend to exhibit more negative emotions and that this relationship is conditioned upon other important factors such as gender, only child status, and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, we discovered that the social environment that is more progressive and open to various gender roles is correlated with higher levels of subjective well-being of teenagers in Shenzhen and Yunnan.

Keywords: gender role conflict, mental health conditions, subjective well-being, social environment

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Authors: Maryam Mousavi Nik, Sara Pasandian

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The aim of the current research was to determine the effectiveness of Cognitive-Behavioral Group Therapy (G-CBT) on stress, illness anxiety and obsessions-compulsion caused by the coronavirus crisis in adolescents (14-18-Year-olds) in Tehran, Iran. This research was carried out in the form of a semi-experimental study with a control group and in the framework of a pre-test and post-test design for both experimental and control groups. The statistical population of this research consisted of all high schools in Tehran in 2022. The sample size includes 32 Adolescents (14-18-Year-olds) who were selected using a cluster sampling method, and then they were randomly replaced in two experimental (n=16) and control (n=16) groups. In this research, an adolescent stress questionnaire (ASQ-N) with an emphasis on the impact of Coronavirus, Coronavirus disease anxiety (CDAS) and The Children's Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Symptom Scale (CY-BOCS) emphasis on the Coronavirus were used, and group therapy intervention with The cognitive-behavioral approach was conducted for 8 sessions of 90 minutes in the experimental group. The research data were analyzed by Multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) and covariance (ANCVA) tests. The results of multivariate covariance analysis showed that group therapy intervention with a cognitive-behavioral approach had a significant effect on at least one of the variables of stress, illness anxiety and obsession-compulsion at the level (P<0.01, F=94.772) in the post-test stage. Also, the results of covariance analysis of one variable showed that group therapy intervention with a cognitive-behavioral approach in the level of (P<0.01, F=106.377) stress, in the level of (P<0.01, F=48.147) disease anxiety and in the level (P>0.01, F=17.033) of obsession-compulsion had a significant effect in the post-test stage. The results showed that The treatment with GCBT can be effective in decreasing stress, illness anxiety and obsessions and compulsion caused by the coronavirus crisis in Adolescents (15-20-Year-olds) and may be considered as an alternative to either individual cognitive-behavioral therapy or medication.

Keywords: stress, disease anxiety, obsession-compulsion, coronavirus (Covid-19) crisis, and cognitive-behavioral therapy

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Authors: Nikolai David Blaskow

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Nietzsche's scholarship in the main has never quite resolved its deeply divided, at times self-contradictory responses to what Friedrich Nietzsche might have actually meant by his notion of the 'will to power'. Yet, in the context of the current global pandemic and climate change crisis, never has there been a more urgent need to investigate and resolve that contradiction. This paper argues for the 'will to power' as being a potentially irrational-rational psychopathology, one that can properly be understood only by means of Nietzsche's agonistic insights into another psychopathology—that of ressentiment. The argument also makes a case for the contention that amor fati (Nietzsche’s positive affirmation of life) may prove to be ressentiment's cure. In addition, as an integral part of the case’s methodology, the lens defined as the Mimetic and Scapegoat theory of Rene Girard (1923-2015) is brought to bear on resolving the contradiction. Ressentiment and Mimetic Theory will prove to be key players in the investigation, in as much as they expose the reasons for a modernity in crisis. The major finding of this study is that when the explanatory power of the two theories is applied, an understanding of the dynamics of the crisis in which we find ourselves emerges. The keys to that insight will include: (1) how these two psychopathologies closely resemble the contemporary neurologically defined 'borderline conditions' and their implications for culture (2) how identity politics stifle exemplary leadership, and so create toxic cultures (3) a critical assessment of Achille Mbembe's (2019) re-working of Frantz Fanon's 'ethics of the passerby' and its resonances with Nietzsche's amor fati.

Keywords: agon, amor fati, borderline conditions, ethics of the passer by, exemplary leadership, identity politics, mimesis, ressentiment, scapegoat mechanism

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Authors: Laura Josabeth Oros-Avilés, Josefina León-León

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In recent decades, the concern of the monetary authorities has increased because of the instability of the financial sector caused by the crash of speculative bubbles. In fact, the crash of "housing bubble" in U.S. (2007-2008) led the latest global crisis. The aim of paper is to analyze the features and causes of the financial and banking crisis from an historical view. In particular, in this research, a comparative study of some analytical approaches about economic and financial history is discussed. In addition, the role of monetary policy of central banks in managing financial crises, from its origins to today, is analyzed. According to the studied approaches, two types of factors that cause the financial instability were identified: subjective and objectives. In the research, these factors are deeply discussed, in order to noting the agreements and disagreement between the authors. Specially, it is worth noting that all of them recognized that the credit boom and the financial deregulation are the main causes of financial crises.

Keywords: asset prices, banking crises, financial bubble, financial instability, monetary policy

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Authors: Symbat Moldabekova

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This research explores the practice of decision-making in commercial banks in Kazakhstan. It focuses on recent technologies, such as contactless payments and QR code, and uses interviews with bank executives and industry practitioners to gain an understanding of how decisions are made and the role of financial assessment methods. The aim of the research is (1) to study the importance of financial techniques to evaluate IT investments; (2) to understand the role of different expert groups; (3) to explore how market trends and industry features affect decisions on IT; (4) to build a model that defines the real practice of decision-making on IT in commercial banks in Kazakhstan. The theoretical framework suggests that decision-making on IT is a socially constructed process, where actor groups with different background interact and negotiate with each other to develop a shared understanding of IT and to make more effective decisions. Theory and observations suggest that the more parties involved in the process of decision-making, the higher the possibility of disagreements between them. As each actor group has their views on the rational decision on an IT project, it is worth exploring how the final decision is made in practice. Initial findings show that the financial assessment methods are used as a guideline and do not play a big role in the final decision. The commercial banks of Kazakhstan tend to study experience of neighboring countries before adopting innovation. Implementing contactless payments is widely regarded as pinnacle success factor due to increasing competition in the market. First-to-market innovations are considered as priorities therefore, such decisions can be made with exemption of some certain actor groups from the process. Customers play significant role and they participate in testing demo versions of the products before bringing innovation to the market. The study will identify the viewpoints of actors in the banking sector on a rational decision, and the ways decision-makers from a variety of disciplines interact with each other in order to make a decision on IT in retail banks.

Keywords: actor groups, decision making, technology investment, retail banks

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Authors: Katharina Kargel, Frederic Vobbe

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Sexualized violence against children and adolescents using digital media poses particular challenges for practitioners with a focus on crisis intervention (social work, psychotherapy, law enforcement). The technical delimitation of violence increases the burden on those affected and increases the complexity of interdisciplinary cooperation. Urgently needed recommendations for practical action do not yet exist in Germany. Funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, these recommendations for action are being developed in the HUMAN project together with science and practice. The presentation introduces the participatory approach of the HUMAN project. We discuss the application-oriented, casuistic approach of the project and present its results using the example of concrete case-based recommendations for Action. The participants will be presented with concrete prototypical case studies from the project, which will be used to illustrate quality criteria for crisis intervention in cases of sexualized violence using digital media. On the basis of case analyses, focus group interviews and interviews with victims of violence, we present the six central challenges of sexualized violence with the use of digital media, namely: • Diffusion (Ambiguities regarding the extent and significance of violence) , • Transcendence (Space and time independence of the dynamics of violence, omnipresence), • omnipresent anxiety (considering diffusion and transcendence), • being haunted (repeated confrontation with digital memories of violence or the perpetrator), • disparity (conflicts of interpretative power between those affected and the social environment) • simultaneity (of all other factors). We point out generalizable principles with which these challenges can be dealt with professionally. Dealing professionally with sexualized violence using digital media requires a stronger networking of professional actors. A clear distinction must be made between their own mission and the mission of the network partners. Those affected by violence must be shown options for crisis intervention in the context of the aid networks. The different competencies and the professional mission of the offers of help are to be made transparent. The necessity of technical possibilities for deleting abuse images beyond criminal prosecution will be discussed. Those affected are stabilized by multimodal strategies such as a combination of rational emotive therapy, legal support and technical assistance.

Keywords: sexualized violence, intervention, digital media, children and youth

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Muhammad Zakaria, Mobeen Ur Rehman, Saniya Khaild

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This study examines the co-movement between the Pakistan, Indian, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 stock markets using weekly data from 1998 to 2013. The time-frequency relationship between the selected stock markets is conducted by using measures of continuous wavelet power spectrum, cross-wavelet transform and cross (squared) wavelet coherency. The empirical evidence suggests strong dependence between Pakistan and Indian stock markets. The co-movement of Pakistani index with U.S and Japanese, the developed markets, varies over time and frequency where the long-run relationship is dominant. The results of cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis indicate moderate covariance and correlation between stock indexes and the markets are in phase (i.e. cyclical in nature) over varying durations. Pakistan stock market was lagging during the entire period in relation to Indian stock market, corresponding to the 8~32 and then 64~256 weeks scale. Similar findings are evident for S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indexes, however, the relationship occurs during the later period of study. All three wavelet indicators suggest strong evidence of higher co-movement during 2008-09 global financial crises. The empirical analysis reveals a strong evidence that the portfolio diversification benefits vary across frequencies and time. This analysis is unique and have several practical implications for regional and international investors while assigning the optimal weightage of different assets in portfolio formulation.

Keywords: co-movement, Pakistan stock exchange, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, wavelet analysis

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Authors: WenYing Claire Shih, Konstantinos Agrafiotis

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The circular economy has become one of the seven fundamental pillars of Taiwan’s economic development, as this is promulgated by the government. The model of the circular economy, with its fundamental premise of waste elimination, can transform the textile and clothing sectors from major pollutant industries to a much cleaner alternative for a better quality of all citizens’ lives. In a related vein, the notion of the creative economy and more specifically the fashion industry can prompt similar results in terms of jobs and wealth creation. The combining forces of the circular and creative economies and their beneficial output have resulted in the configuration of ethical urban networks which potentially may lead to sources of competitive advantage. All actors involved in the configuration of this urban ethical fashion network from public authorities to private enterprise can bring about positive changes in the urban setting. Preliminary results through action research show that this configuration is an attainable task in terms of circularity by reducing fabric waste produced from local textile mills and through innovative methods of design, production and retail around urban spaces where the network has managed to generate a stream of jobs and financial revenues for all participants. The municipal authorities as the facilitating platform have been of paramount importance in this public-private partnership. In the explorative pilot study conducted about a network of production, consumption in terms of circularity of fashion products, we have experienced a positive disposition. As the network will be fully functional by attracting more participant firms from the textile and clothing sectors, it can be beneficial to Taiwan’s soft power in the region and simultaneously elevate citizens’ awareness on circular methods of fashion production, consumption and disposal which can also lead to the betterment of urban lifestyle and may open export horizons for the firms.

Keywords: the circular economy, the creative economy, ethical urban networks, action research

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Authors: Aleksandra Szunke

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Monetary policy is an important pillar of the economy, directly affecting on the condition of banking sector. Depending on the strategy may both support functioning of banking institutions, as well as limit their excessively risky activities. The literature studies indicate a large number of publications, which include characteristics of initiatives, implemented by central banks during the global financial crisis and the potential effects of the use of non-standard monetary policy instruments. However, the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for the financial markets are still not final. Even before the escalation of instability, Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack (2004) analyzed the effectiveness of various unconventional monetary tools in lowering long-term interest rates in the United States and Japan. The obtained results largely confirmed the effectiveness of the zero-interest-rate policy and Quantitative Easing (QE) in achieving the goal of reducing long-term interest rates. Japan, considered as the precursor of QE policy, also conducted research about the consequences of non-standard instruments, implemented to restore financial stability of the country. Although the literature about the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan is extensive, it does not uniquely specify whether it brought permanent effects. The main aim of the study is to identify the implications of non-standard monetary policy, implemented by selected central banks (the Federal Reserve System, Bank of England and European Central Bank), paying particular attention to the consequences into three areas: the size of money supply, financial markets, and the real economy.

Keywords: consequences of modern monetary policy, quantitative easing policy, banking sector instability, global financial crisis

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Authors: Ly Nguyen, Vidit Munshi

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During the Covid-19 recession, the United States government has implemented several instruments to mitigate the impacts and revitalize the economy. This paper explores the effects of the various government policy decisions on stock returns, housing prices, and investor psychology during the pandemic in the United States. A numerous previous literature studies on this subject, yet very few focus on the context similar to what we are currently experiencing. Our monthly data covering the period from January 2019 through July 2021 were collected from Datastream. Utilizing the VAR model, we document a dynamic relationship between the market and policy actions throughout the period. In particular, the movements of Unemployment, Stock returns, and Housing prices are strongly sensitive to changes in government policies. Our results also indicate that changes in production level, stock returns, and interest rates decisions influence how investors perceived future market risk and expectations. We do not find any significant nexus between monetary and fiscal policy. Our findings imply that information on government policy and stock market performance provide useful feedback to one another in order to make better decisions in the current and future pandemic. Understanding how the market responds to a shift in government practices has important implications for authorities in implementing policy to avoid assets bubbles and market overreactions. The paper also provides useful implications for investors in evaluating the effectiveness of different policies and diversifying portfolios to minimize systematic risk and maximize returns.

Keywords: Covid-19 recession, United States, government policies, investor psychology, housing prices, stock market returns

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Authors: Tatiana Rizova

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The migrant crisis, which peaked in 2015-2016, posed an unprecedented challenge to the European Union’s (EU) newest member states, including Bulgaria and Hungary. Their governments had to formulate sound migration policies with expediency and sensitivity to the needs of millions of people fleeing violent conflicts in the Middle East and failed states in North Africa. Political leaders in post-communist countries had to carefully coordinate with other EU member states on joint policies and solutions while minimizing the risk of alienating their increasingly anti-migrant domestic constituents. Post-communist member states’ governments chose distinct policy responses to the crisis, which were dictated by factors such as their governments’ partisan stances on migration, their views of the European Union, and the decision to frame the crisis as a security or a humanitarian issue. This paper explores how two Bulgarian governments (Boyko Borisov’s second and third government formed during the 43rd and 44th Bulgarian National Assembly, respectively) navigated the processes of EU migration policy making and managing the expectations of their electorates. Based on a comparative analysis of refugee policies in Bulgaria and Hungary during the height of the crisis (2015-2016) and a temporal analysis of refugee policies in Bulgaria (2015-2018), the paper advances the following conclusions. Drawing on insights of the Copenhagen school of security studies, the paper argues that cultural concerns dominated domestic debates in both Bulgaria and Hungary; both governments framed the issue predominantly as a matter of security rather than humanitarian disaster. Regardless of the similarities in issue framing, however, the two governments sought different paths of tackling the crisis. While the Bulgarian government demonstrated its willingness to comply with EU decisions (such as the proposal for mandatory quotas for refugee relocation), the Hungarian government defied EU directives and became a leading voice of dissent inside the EU. The current Bulgarian government (April 2017 - present) appears to be committed to complying with EU decisions and accepts the strategy of EU burden-sharing, while the Hungarian government has continually snubbed the EU’s appeals for cooperation despite the risk of hefty financial penalties. Hungary’s refugee policies have been influenced by the parliamentary representation of the far right-wing party Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik), which has encouraged the majority party (FIDESZ) to adopt harsher anti-migrant rhetoric and more hostile policies toward refugees. Bulgaria’s current government is a coalition of the center-right Citizens for a European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) and its far right-wing junior partners – the United Patriots (comprised of three nationalist political parties). The parliamentary presence of Jobbik in Hungary’s parliament has magnified the anti-migrant stance, rhetoric, and policies of Mr. Orbán’s Civic Alliance; we have yet to observe a substantial increase in the anti-migrant rhetoric and policies in Bulgaria’s case. Analyzing responses to the migrant/refugee crisis is a critical opportunity to understand how issues of cultural identity and belonging, inclusion and exclusion, regional integration and disintegration are debated and molded into policy in Europe’s youngest member states in the broader EU context.

Keywords: Copenhagen School, migrant crisis, refugees, security

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Authors: Marina E. Konstantinidi

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It is now well-established that the fight against climate change and its consequences, which are a threat to mankind and to life on the planet Earth, requires that global temperature rise be kept under 1,5°C. It is also well-established that this requires humanity to put an end to the use of fossil fuels in the next decades, at the latest. However, investors in the fossil energy sector have brought or threatened to bring investment arbitration claims against States which put an end to their activity for the purpose of reaching their climate change policies’ objectives. Examples of such claims are provided by the cases of WMH v. Canada, Lone Pine v. Canada, Uniper v. Netherlands and RWE v. Netherlands. Irrespective of the outcome of the arbitration proceedings, the risk of being ordered to pay very substantial damages may have a ‘chilling effect’ on States, meaning that they may hesitate to implement the energy transition measures needed to fight climate change and its consequences. Although mitigation action is a relatively recent phenomenon, knowledge about the negative impact of fossil fuels has existed for a long time ago. In this paper, it is argued that structured documentation of evidence of knowledge about climate change may influence the adjudication of investment treaty claims and, consequently, affect the content of energy transition regulations that will be implemented. For example, as concerns investors, evidence that change in the regulatory framework towards environmental protection could have been predicted would refute the argument concerning legitimate expectations for legislative stability. By reference to relevant case law, it attempted to explore how pre-existing knowledge about climate change can be used in the adjudication of investor-State disputes and resulting from green energy transition policies.

Keywords: climate change, energy transition, international investment law, knowledge

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Authors: Rotem Mashkov, Noam Shoval

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In an age when a tourist’s gaze is more focused on the daily lives of locals, it is evident that local food markets are being rediscovered. Traditional urban markets succeed in reinventing themselves as a space for consumption, recreation, and culture, enabling authentic experiences and interpersonal interactions with the local culture. Alongside this, the pressure of tourism development may result in commercialization and retail gentrification to the point of losing the sense of local identity. The issue of finding a balance between tourism development and the preservation of unique local features is at the heart of this study and is being tested using the case of the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem. The research question—how merchants respond to tourism development in the Mahane Yehuda food market— focuses on local traders, a group of players who are usually absent from the research arenas, although they influence tourism development as well as influenced by it. Three main research methods were integrated into this study. The first two methods, a survey of articles survey and comparative mapping of the business mix, were used to characterize the changes in the Mahane Yehuda market both consciously and physically. The third research method, involving in-depth interviews with merchants, was used to examine the traders' attitudes and responses to tourism development. The findings indicate that there has been a turnaround in the market image over the past decade and a half. Additionally, there has been a significant physical change in the business mix, reflected by a decline of 15% in the number of stalls selling food products and delicacies. The data from the interviews on the traders’ attitudes towards tourism development were inconclusive; there were disagreements among the traders about the economic contribution of tourism development in relation to their dependence on the tourism industry. However, there was a consensus on the need for authentic elements in the marketplace. The findings of the study also indicate a strong link between the merchants’ response to tourism development and their stall ownership status as the merchant could exercise their position in various ways depending on the possession type.

Keywords: business mix, Jerusalem, local food markets, Mahane Yehuda market, merchants’ attitude, ownership status, retail gentrification, tourism development, traditional urban markets

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Authors: Bhaumik Patel, Amit Gotecha

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Commercial centres of different hierarchy and sizes play a vital role in the growth and development of the city. Economic uncertainty and demand for space leads to more urban sprawl and emerging more commercial spaces. The study was focused on the understanding of various indicators affecting the commercial development that can help to solve many issues related to commercial urban development and can guide for future employment growth centre development, Accessibility, Infrastructure, Planning and development regulations and Market forces. The aim of the study was to review characteristics and identifying employment density of Commercial Employment Sub-centres by achieving objectives Understanding various employment sub-centres, Identifying characteristics and deriving behaviour of employment densities and Evaluating and comparing employment sub-centres for the Ahmedabad city. Commercial employment sub-centres one in old city (Kalupur), second in highly developed commercial (C.G.road-Ashram road) and third in the latest developing commercial area (Prahladnagar) were identified by distance from city centre, Land use diversity, Access to Major roads and Public transport, Population density in proximity, Complimentary land uses in proximity and Land price. Commercial activities were categorised into retail, wholesale and service sector and sub categorised into various activities. From the study, Time period of establishment of the unit is a critical parameter for commercial activity, building height, and land-use diversity. Employment diversity is also one parameter for the commercial centre. The old city has retail, wholesale and trading and higher commercial density concerning units and employment both. Prahladnagar area functioned as commercial due to market pressure and developed as more units rather than a requirement. Employment density is higher in the centre of the city, as far as distance increases from city centre employment density and unit density decreases. Characters of influencing employment density and unit density are distance from city centre, development type, establishment time period, building density, unit density, public transport accessibility and road connectivity.

Keywords: commercial employment sub-centres, employment density, employment diversity, unit density

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Authors: Yves Alain Ach, Sandra Rmadi Said

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An extensive review of literature in relation to brands has shown that little research has focused on the nature and determinants of the information disclosed by companies with respect to the brands they own and use. The objective of this paper is to address this issue. More specifically, the aim is to characterize the nature of the information disclosed by companies in terms of estimating the value of brands and to identify the determinants of that information according to the company’s characteristics most frequently tested by previous studies on the disclosure of information on intangible capital, by studying the practices of a sample of 37 French companies. Our findings suggest that companies prefer to communicate accounting, economic and strategic information in relation to their brands instead of providing financial information. The analysis of the determinants of the information disclosed on brands leads to the conclusion that the groups which operate internationally and have chosen a category 1 auditing firm to communicate more information to investors in their annual report. Our study points out that the sector is not an explanatory variable for voluntary brand disclosure, unlike previous studies on intangible capital. Our study is distinguished by the study of an element that has been little studied in the financial literature, namely the determinants of brand-related information. With regard to the effect of size on brand-related information disclosure, our research does not confirm this link. Many authors point out that large companies tend to publish more voluntary information in order to respond to stakeholder pressure. Our study also establishes that the relationship between brand information supply and performance is insignificant. This relationship is already controversial by previous research, and it shows that higher profitability motivates managers to provide more information, as this strengthens investor confidence and may increase managers' compensation. Our main contribution focuses on the nature of the inherent characteristics of the companies that disclose the most information about brands. Our results show the absence of a link between size and industry on the one hand and the supply of brand information on the other, contrary to previous research. Our analysis highlights three types of information disclosed about brands: accounting, economics and strategy. We, therefore, question the reasons that may lead companies to voluntarily communicate mainly accounting, economic and strategic information in relation to our study from one year to the next and not to communicate detailed information that would allow them to reconstitute the financial value of their brands. Our results can be useful for companies and investors. Our results highlight, to our surprise, the lack of financial information that would allow investors to understand a better valuation of brands. We believe that additional information is needed to improve the quality of accounting and financial information related to brands. The additional information provided in the special report that we recommend could be called a "report on intangible assets”.

Keywords: brand related information, brand value, information disclosure, determinants

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Authors: Maria Reznakova, Michala Strnadova, Lukas Reznak

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The global financial crisis that erupted in 2008 is associated mainly with the debt crisis. It quickly spread globally through financial markets, international banks and trade links, and affected many economic sectors. Measured by the index of the year-on-year change in GDP and industrial production, the consequences of the global financial crisis manifested themselves with some delay also in the Czech economy. This can be considered a result of the overwhelming export orientation of Czech industrial enterprises. These events offer an important opportunity to study how financial and macroeconomic instability affects corporate performance. Corporate performance factors have long been given considerable attention. It is therefore reasonable to ask whether the findings published in the past are also valid in the times of economic instability and subsequent recession. The decisive factor in effective corporate performance measurement is the existence of an appropriate system of indicators that are able to assess progress in achieving corporate goals. Performance measures may be based on non-financial as well as on financial information. In this paper, financial indicators are used in combination with other characteristics, such as the firm size and ownership structure. Financial performance is evaluated based on traditional performance indicators, namely, return on equity and return on assets, supplemented with indebtedness and current liquidity indices. As investments are a very important factor in corporate performance, their trends and importance were also investigated by looking at the ratio of investments to previous year’s sales and the rate of reinvested earnings. In addition to traditional financial performance indicators, the Economic Value Added was also used. Data used in the research were obtained from a questionnaire survey administered in industrial enterprises in the Czech Republic and from AMADEUS (Analyse Major Database from European Sources), from which accounting data of companies were obtained. Respondents were members of the companies’ senior management. Research results unequivocally confirmed that corporate performance dropped significantly in the 2010-2012 period, which can be considered a result of the global financial crisis and a subsequent economic recession. It was reflected mainly in the decreasing values of profitability indicators and the Economic Value Added. Although the total year-on-year indebtedness declined, intercompany indebtedness increased. This can be considered a result of impeded access of companies to bank loans due to the credit crunch. Comparison of the results obtained with the conclusions of previous research on a similar topic showed that the assumption that firms under foreign control achieved higher performance during the period investigated was not confirmed.

Keywords: corporate performance, foreign control, intercompany indebtedness, ratio of investment

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Authors: Nkatow Mafany Christian

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No other period in human history has offered such great opportunities for grievances not only to last long but also to be manifested across international boundaries. This state of affairs is likely a common feature of the advent of social media. The Anglophone Question in Cameroon has been a problem of poor constitutional arrangements that can be traced to 1961 when the former French Cameroon reunified with former British Southern Cameroons following a plebiscite in which the latter overwhelmingly voted to reunify with the former. Though Southern/Anglophone Cameroons complained of perceived marginalization and an attempt by the majority French section to assimilate them, the manifestation was subtle and took place only through protests, petitions, strikes movements and demonstrations. However, with the advent of social media, a new cream of leaders emerged in the diaspora, including the US, Canada, Europe, Asia and the Middle East, to champion the manifestations leading to violence and conflicts that have bedeviled the region since 2017. The feeling of political subjugation, economic exploitation, social suppression and cultural assimilation among Anglophone Cameroonians united them under diaspora leaders against the government of Cameroon, calling for the creation of a separate state for Anglophones. This paper draws from this lead-up to analyze the current Anglophone Crisis in Cameroon in the light of the Grievance Theory and Transnationalism. The paper makes an appeal to field experience, interviews, official sources, documentation, and the internet to succor its central thesis. From the fertility of its sources, the paper submits that social media is a potent source of conflicts and makes nonsense of the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity by its capacity to promote the transnational manifestation of grievances.

Keywords: grievance, transnationalism, anglophone crisis, Cameroon, crisis and social media

Procedia PDF Downloads 39