Search results for: demand planning
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6113

Search results for: demand planning

6113 Using AI to Advance Factory Planning: A Case Study to Identify Success Factors of Implementing an AI-Based Demand Planning Solution

Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

Abstract:

Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
6112 Energy Planning Analysis of an Agritourism Complex Based on Energy Demand Simulation: A Case Study of Wuxi Yangshan Agritourism Complex

Authors: Li Zhu, Binghua Wang, Yong Sun

Abstract:

China is experiencing the rural development process, with the agritourism complex becoming one of the significant modes. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the energy performance of agritourism complex. This study focuses on a typical case of the agritourism complex and simulates the energy consumption performance on condition of the regular energy system. It was found that HVAC took 90% of the whole energy demand range. In order to optimize the energy supply structure, the hierarchical analysis was carried out on the level of architecture with three main factors such as construction situation, building types and energy demand types. Finally, the energy planning suggestion of the agritourism complex was put forward and the relevant results were obtained.

Keywords: agritourism complex, energy planning, energy demand simulation, hierarchical structure model

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
6111 Production Planning for Animal Food Industry under Demand Uncertainty

Authors: Pirom Thangchitpianpol, Suttipong Jumroonrut

Abstract:

This research investigates the distribution of food demand for animal food and the optimum amount of that food production at minimum cost. The data consist of customer purchase orders for the food of laying hens, price of food for laying hens, cost per unit for the food inventory, cost related to food of laying hens in which the food is out of stock, such as fine, overtime, urgent purchase for material. They were collected from January, 1990 to December, 2013 from a factory in Nakhonratchasima province. The collected data are analyzed in order to explore the distribution of the monthly food demand for the laying hens and to see the rate of inventory per unit. The results are used in a stochastic linear programming model for aggregate planning in which the optimum production or minimum cost could be obtained. Programming algorithms in MATLAB and tools in Linprog software are used to get the solution. The distribution of the food demand for laying hens and the random numbers are used in the model. The study shows that the distribution of monthly food demand for laying has a normal distribution, the monthly average amount (unit: 30 kg) of production from January to December. The minimum total cost average for 12 months is Baht 62,329,181.77. Therefore, the production planning can reduce the cost by 14.64% from real cost.

Keywords: animal food, stochastic linear programming, aggregate planning, production planning, demand uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
6110 Pricing, Production and Inventory Policies Manufacturing under Stochastic Demand and Continuous Prices

Authors: Masoud Rabbani, Majede Smizadeh, Hamed Farrokhi-Asl

Abstract:

We study jointly determining prices and production in a multiple period horizon under a general non-stationary stochastic demand with continuous prices. In some periods we need to increase capacity of production to satisfy demand. This paper presents a model to aid multi-period production capacity planning by quantifying the trade-off between product quality and production cost. The product quality is estimated as the statistical variation from the target performances obtained from the output tolerances of the production machines that manufacture the components. We consider different tolerance for different machines that use to increase capacity. The production cost is estimated as the total cost of owning and operating a production facility during the planning horizon.so capacity planning has cost that impact on price. Pricing products often turns out to be difficult to measure them because customers have a reservation price to pay that impact on price and demand. We decide to determine prices and production for periods after enhance capacity and consider reservation price to determine price. First we use an algorithm base on fuzzy set of the optimal objective function values to determine capacity planning by determine maximize interval from upper bound in minimum objectives and define weight for objectives. Then we try to determine inventory and pricing policies. We can use a lemma to solve a problem in MATLAB and find exact answer.

Keywords: price policy, inventory policy, capacity planning, product quality, epsilon -constraint

Procedia PDF Downloads 530
6109 Predicting Shortage of Hospital Beds during COVID-19 Pandemic in United States

Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

Abstract:

World-wide spread of coronavirus grows the concern about planning for the excess demand of hospital services in response to COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in the hospital services demand beyond the current capacity leads to shortage of ICU beds and ventilators in some parts of US. In this study, we forecast the required number of hospital beds and possible shortage of beds in US during COVID-19 pandemic to be used in the planning and hospitalization of new cases. In this paper, we used a data on COVID-19 deaths and patients’ hospitalization besides the data on hospital capacities and utilization in US from publicly available sources and national government websites. we used a novel ensemble modelling of deep learning networks, based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to predict the shortage in hospital beds. The results showed that our proposed approach can predict the excess hospital beds demand very well and this can be helpful in developing strategies and plans to mitigate this gap.

Keywords: COVID-19, deep learning, ensembled models, hospital capacity planning

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6108 Production and Distribution Network Planning Optimization: A Case Study of Large Cement Company

Authors: Lokendra Kumar Devangan, Ajay Mishra

Abstract:

This paper describes the implementation of a large-scale SAS/OR model with significant pre-processing, scenario analysis, and post-processing work done using SAS. A large cement manufacturer with ten geographically distributed manufacturing plants for two variants of cement, around 400 warehouses serving as transshipment points, and several thousand distributor locations generating demand needed to optimize this multi-echelon, multi-modal transport supply chain separately for planning and allocation purposes. For monthly planning as well as daily allocation, the demand is deterministic. Rail and road networks connect any two points in this supply chain, creating tens of thousands of such connections. Constraints include the plant’s production capacity, transportation capacity, and rail wagon batch size constraints. Each demand point has a minimum and maximum for shipments received. Price varies at demand locations due to local factors. A large mixed integer programming model built using proc OPTMODEL decides production at plants, demand fulfilled at each location, and the shipment route to demand locations to maximize the profit contribution. Using base SAS, we did significant pre-processing of data and created inputs for the optimization. Using outputs generated by OPTMODEL and other processing completed using base SAS, we generated several reports that went into their enterprise system and created tables for easy consumption of the optimization results by operations.

Keywords: production planning, mixed integer optimization, network model, network optimization

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6107 A Development of a Simulation Tool for Production Planning with Capacity-Booking at Specialty Store Retailer of Private Label Apparel Firms

Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto

Abstract:

In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.

Keywords: capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 481
6106 The Role of Information Technology in Supply Chain Management

Authors: V. Jagadeesh, K. Venkata Subbaiah, P. Govinda Rao

Abstract:

This paper explaining about the significance of information technology tools and software packages in supply chain management (SCM) in order to manage the entire supply chain. Managing materials flow and financial flow and information flow effectively and efficiently with the aid of information technology tools and packages in order to deliver right quantity with right quality of goods at right time by using right methods and technology. Information technology plays a vital role in streamlining the sales forecasting and demand planning and Inventory control and transportation in supply networks and finally deals with production planning and scheduling. It achieves the objectives by streamlining the business process and integrates within the enterprise and its extended enterprise. SCM starts with customer and it involves sequence of activities from customer, retailer, distributor, manufacturer and supplier within the supply chain framework. It is the process of integrating demand planning and supply network planning and production planning and control. Forecasting indicates the direction for planning raw materials in order to meet the production planning requirements. Inventory control and transportation planning allocate the optimal or economic order quantity by utilizing shortest possible routes to deliver the goods to the customer. Production planning and control utilize the optimal resources mix in order to meet the capacity requirement planning. The above operations can be achieved by using appropriate information technology tools and software packages for the supply chain management.

Keywords: supply chain management, information technology, business process, extended enterprise

Procedia PDF Downloads 329
6105 Issues in Travel Demand Forecasting

Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

Abstract:

Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper.

Keywords: travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment

Procedia PDF Downloads 409
6104 Heuristic Methods for the Capacitated Location- Allocation Problem with Stochastic Demand

Authors: Salinee Thumronglaohapun

Abstract:

The proper number and appropriate locations of service centers can save cost, raise revenue and gain more satisfaction from customers. Establishing service centers is high-cost and difficult to relocate. In long-term planning periods, several factors may affect the service. One of the most critical factors is uncertain demand of customers. The opened service centers need to be capable of serving customers and making a profit although the demand in each period is changed. In this work, the capacitated location-allocation problem with stochastic demand is considered. A mathematical model is formulated to determine suitable locations of service centers and their allocation to maximize total profit for multiple planning periods. Two heuristic methods, a local search and genetic algorithm, are used to solve this problem. For the local search, five different chances to choose each type of moves are applied. For the genetic algorithm, three different replacement strategies are considered. The results of applying each method to solve numerical examples are compared. Both methods reach to the same best found solution in most examples but the genetic algorithm provides better solutions in some cases.

Keywords: location-allocation problem, stochastic demand, local search, genetic algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
6103 Adjusting Electricity Demand Data to Account for the Impact of Loadshedding in Forecasting Models

Authors: Migael van Zyl, Stefanie Visser, Awelani Phaswana

Abstract:

The electricity landscape in South Africa is characterized by frequent occurrences of loadshedding, a measure implemented by Eskom to manage electricity generation shortages by curtailing demand. Loadshedding, classified into stages ranging from 1 to 8 based on severity, involves the systematic rotation of power cuts across municipalities according to predefined schedules. However, this practice introduces distortions in recorded electricity demand, posing challenges to accurate forecasting essential for budgeting, network planning, and generation scheduling. Addressing this challenge requires the development of a methodology to quantify the impact of loadshedding and integrate it back into metered electricity demand data. Fortunately, comprehensive records of loadshedding impacts are maintained in a database, enabling the alignment of Loadshedding effects with hourly demand data. This adjustment ensures that forecasts accurately reflect true demand patterns, independent of loadshedding's influence, thereby enhancing the reliability of electricity supply management in South Africa. This paper presents a methodology for determining the hourly impact of load scheduling and subsequently adjusting historical demand data to account for it. Furthermore, two forecasting models are developed: one utilizing the original dataset and the other using the adjusted data. A comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate forecast accuracy improvements resulting from the adjustment process. By implementing this methodology, stakeholders can make more informed decisions regarding electricity infrastructure investments, resource allocation, and operational planning, contributing to the overall stability and efficiency of South Africa's electricity supply system.

Keywords: electricity demand forecasting, load shedding, demand side management, data science

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6102 Applying Arima Data Mining Techniques to ERP to Generate Sales Demand Forecasting: A Case Study

Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Israa Abu Rumman

Abstract:

This paper modeled sales history archived from 2012 to 2015 bulked in monthly bins for five products for a medical supply company in Jordan. The sales forecasts and extracted consistent patterns in the sales demand history from the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system were used to predict future forecasting and generate sales demand forecasting using time series analysis statistical technique called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This was used to model and estimate realistic sales demand patterns and predict future forecasting to decide the best models for five products. Analysis revealed that the current replenishment system indicated inventory overstocking.

Keywords: ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R code

Procedia PDF Downloads 346
6101 Neural Network Modelling for Turkey Railway Load Carrying Demand

Authors: Humeyra Bolakar Tosun

Abstract:

The transport sector has an undisputed place in human life. People need transport access to continuous increase day by day with growing population. The number of rail network, urban transport planning, infrastructure improvements, transportation management and other related areas is a key factor affecting our country made it quite necessary to improve the work of transportation. In this context, it plays an important role in domestic rail freight demand planning. Alternatives that the increase in the transportation field and has made it mandatory requirements such as the demand for improving transport quality. In this study generally is known and used in studies by the definition, rail freight transport, railway line length, population, energy consumption. In this study, Iron Road Load Net Demand was modeled by multiple regression and ANN methods. In this study, model dependent variable (Output) is Iron Road Load Net demand and 6 entries variable was determined. These outcome values extracted from the model using ANN and regression model results. In the regression model, some parameters are considered as determinative parameters, and the coefficients of the determinants give meaningful results. As a result, ANN model has been shown to be more successful than traditional regression model.

Keywords: railway load carrying, neural network, modelling transport, transportation

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6100 TELUM Land Use Model: An Investigation of Data Requirements and Calibration Results for Chittenden County MPO, U.S.A.

Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

Abstract:

TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modelling.

Keywords: calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, metropolitan planning organizations

Procedia PDF Downloads 257
6099 Production and Leftovers Usage Policies to Minimize Food Waste under Uncertain and Correlated Demand

Authors: Esma Birisci, Ronald McGarvey

Abstract:

One of the common problems in food service industry is demand uncertainty. This research presents a multi-criteria optimization approach to identify the efficient frontier of points lying between the minimum-waste and minimum-shortfall solutions within uncertain demand environment. It also addresses correlation across demands for items (e.g., hamburgers are often demanded with french fries). Reducing overproduction food waste (and its corresponding environmental impacts) and an aversion to shortfalls (leave some customer hungry) need to consider as two contradictory objectives in an all-you-care-to-eat environment food service operation. We identify optimal production adjustments relative to demand forecasts, demand thresholds for utilization of leftovers, and percentages of demand to be satisfied by leftovers, considering two alternative metrics for overproduction waste: mass; and greenhouse gas emissions. Demand uncertainty and demand correlations are addressed using a kernel density estimation approach. A statistical analysis of the changes in decision variable values across each of the efficient frontiers can then be performed to identify the key variables that could be modified to reduce the amount of wasted food at minimal increase in shortfalls. We illustrate our approach with an application to empirical data from Campus Dining Services operations at the University of Missouri.

Keywords: environmental studies, food waste, production planning, uncertain and correlated demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 331
6098 Most Important Educational Planning Issues in the Developing Countries

Authors: Naeem Khan

Abstract:

In 1971 Williams in his essay titled "What Educational Planning is About in Higher Education" defined educational planning as "planning in education, as in anything else consist essentially of deciding, in advance, what you want, to do and how you are going to do in". In the “World Year book of Education”. While Anderson and Bowman in 1976 in their joint article titled "Theoretical Considerations in Educational Planning" defined it as "the process of preparing a set of decisions for future action pertaining in education". There are so many other definitions which are related to educational planning in which every one stress on the importance of educational planning. But developing countries face a lot of problems related to the educational planning and this paper is to discuss few of them.

Keywords: educational planning, problems, developing countries, education system,

Procedia PDF Downloads 507
6097 A Literature Review on Development of a Forecast Supported Approach for the Continuous Pre-Planning of Required Transport Capacity for the Design of Sustainable Transport Chains

Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

Abstract:

Logistics service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilisation and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transport capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organise more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe such planning aspects, this paper gives a structured literature review on transport planning problems. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing-, network-design- and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research objectives

Keywords: choice of transport mode, fleet-sizing, freight transport planning, multimodal, review, service network design

Procedia PDF Downloads 328
6096 Development of a Forecast-Supported Approach for the Continuous Pre-Planning of Mandatory Transportation Capacity for the Design of Sustainable Transport Chains: A Literature Review

Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

Abstract:

Transportation service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilization and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transportation capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organize more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe these planning aspects, this paper gives an overview on transportation planning problems in a structured way. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing, service-network-design and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented, and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research directions.

Keywords: freight transportation planning, multimodal, fleet-sizing, service network design, choice of transportation mode, review

Procedia PDF Downloads 282
6095 Analysis of Two Methods to Estimation Stochastic Demand in the Vehicle Routing Problem

Authors: Fatemeh Torfi

Abstract:

Estimation of stochastic demand in physical distribution in general and efficient transport routs management in particular is emerging as a crucial factor in urban planning domain. It is particularly important in some municipalities such as Tehran where a sound demand management calls for a realistic analysis of the routing system. The methodology involved critically investigating a fuzzy least-squares linear regression approach (FLLRs) to estimate the stochastic demands in the vehicle routing problem (VRP) bearing in mind the customer's preferences order. A FLLR method is proposed in solving the VRP with stochastic demands. Approximate-distance fuzzy least-squares (ADFL) estimator ADFL estimator is applied to original data taken from a case study. The SSR values of the ADFL estimator and real demand are obtained and then compared to SSR values of the nominal demand and real demand. Empirical results showed that the proposed methods can be viable in solving problems under circumstances of having vague and imprecise performance ratings. The results further proved that application of the ADFL was realistic and efficient estimator to face the stochastic demand challenges in vehicle routing system management and solve relevant problems.

Keywords: fuzzy least-squares, stochastic, location, routing problems

Procedia PDF Downloads 389
6094 Water Supply and Demand Analysis for Ranchi City under Climate Change Using Water Evaluation and Planning System Model

Authors: Pappu Kumar, Ajai Singh, Anshuman Singh

Abstract:

There are different water user sectors such as rural, urban, mining, subsistence and commercial irrigated agriculture, commercial forestry, industry, power generation which are present in the catchment in Subarnarekha River Basin and Ranchi city. There is an inequity issue in the access to water. The development of the rural area, construction of new power generation plants, along with the population growth, the requirement of unmet water demand and the consideration of environmental flows, the revitalization of small-scale irrigation schemes is going to increase the water demands in almost all the water-stressed catchment. The WEAP Model was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to enable evaluation of planning and management issues associated with water resources development. The WEAP model can be used for both urban and rural areas and can address a wide range of issues including sectoral demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocation priorities, river flow simulation, reservoir operation, ecosystem requirements and project cost-benefit analyses. This model is a tool for integrated water resource management and planning like, forecasting water demand, supply, inflows, outflows, water use, reuse, water quality, priority areas and Hydropower generation, In the present study, efforts have been made to access the utility of the WEAP model for water supply and demand analysis for Ranchi city. A detailed works have been carried out and it was tried to ascertain that the WEAP model used for generating different scenario of water requirement, which could help for the future planning of water. The water supplied to Ranchi city was mostly contributed by our study river, Hatiya reservoir and ground water. Data was collected from various agencies like PHE Ranchi, census data of 2011, Doranda reservoir and meteorology department etc. This collected and generated data was given as input to the WEAP model. The model generated the trends for discharge of our study river up to next 2050 and same time also generated scenarios calculating our demand and supplies for feature. The results generated from the model outputs predicting the water require 12 million litter. The results will help in drafting policies for future regarding water supplies and demands under changing climatic scenarios.

Keywords: WEAP model, water demand analysis, Ranchi, scenarios

Procedia PDF Downloads 386
6093 Micro-Transformation Strategy Of Residential Transportation Space Based On The Demand Of Residents: Taking A Residential District In Wuhan, China As An Example

Authors: Hong Geng, Zaiyu Fan

Abstract:

With the acceleration of urbanization and motorization in China, the scale of cities and the travel distance of residents are constantly expanding, and the number of cars is continuously increasing, so the urban traffic problem is more and more serious. Traffic congestion, environmental pollution, energy consumption, travel safety and direct interference between traffic and other urban activities are increasingly prominent problems brought about by motorized development. This not only has a serious impact on the lives of the residents but also has a major impact on the healthy development of the city. The paper found that, in order to solve the development of motorization, a number of problems will arise; urban planning and traffic planning and design in residential planning often take into account the development of motorized traffic but neglects the demand for street life. This kind of planning has resulted in the destruction of the traditional communication space of the residential area, the pollution of noise and exhaust gas, and the potential safety risks of the residential area, which has disturbed the previously quiet and comfortable life of the residential area, resulting in the inconvenience of residents' life and the loss of street vitality. Based on these facts, this paper takes a residential area in Wuhan as the research object, through the actual investigation and research, from the perspective of micro-transformation analysis, combined with the concept of traffic micro-reconstruction governance. And research puts forward the residential traffic optimization strategies such as strengthening the interaction and connection between the residential area and the urban street system, street traffic classification and organization.

Keywords: micro-transformation, residential traffic, residents demand, traffic microcirculation

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
6092 Economic Evaluation of Varying Scenarios to Fulfill the Regional Electricity Demand in Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Kafait Ullah, Kashif Imran, Arshad Mahmood, Maarten Arentsen

Abstract:

Poor planning and governance in the power sector of Pakistan have generated several issues ranging from gradual reliance on thermal-based expensive energy mix, supply shortages, unrestricted demand, subsidization, inefficiencies at different levels of the value chain and resultantly, the circular debt. This situation in the power sector has also hampered the growth of allied economic sectors. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for electricity modelling of Pakistan from the period of 2016 to 2040. The study has first time in Pakistan forecasted the electricity demand at the provincial level. At the supply side, five scenarios Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Gas Scenario (GS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and Renewable Scenario (RS) have been analyzed based on the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The study has also included environmental externality costs for evaluating the actual costs and benefits of different scenarios. Contrary to the expectations, RS has a lower output than even BAUS. The study has concluded that the generation from RS has five times lesser costs than BAUS, CS, and GS. NS can also be an alternative for the sustainable future of Pakistan. Generation from imported coal is not a good option, however, indigenous coal with clean coal technologies should be promoted. This paper proposes energy planners of the country to devise incentives for the utilization of indigenous energy resources including renewables on priority and then clean coal to reduce the energy crises of Pakistan.

Keywords: economic evaluation, externality cost, penetration of renewable energy, regional electricity supply-demand planning

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6091 Forecasting Future Demand for Energy Efficient Vehicles: A Review of Methodological Approaches

Authors: Dimitrios I. Tselentis, Simon P. Washington

Abstract:

Considerable literature has been focused over the last few decades on forecasting the consumer demand of Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEVs). These methodological issues range from how to capture recent purchase decisions in revealed choice studies and how to set up experiments in stated preference (SP) studies, and choice of analysis method for analyzing such data. This paper reviews the plethora of published studies on the field of forecasting demand of EEVs since 1980, and provides a review and annotated bibliography of that literature as it pertains to this particular demand forecasting problem. This detailed review addresses the literature not only to Transportation studies, but specifically to the problem and methodologies around forecasting to the time horizons of planning studies which may represent 10 to 20 year forecasts. The objectives of the paper are to identify where existing gaps in literature exist and to articulate where promising methodologies might guide longer term forecasting. One of the key findings of this review is that there are many common techniques used both in the field of new product demand forecasting and the field of predicting future demand for EEV. Apart from SP and RP methods, some of these new techniques that have emerged in the literature in the last few decades are survey related approaches, product diffusion models, time-series modelling, computational intelligence models and other holistic approaches.

Keywords: demand forecasting, Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEVs), forecasting methodologies review, methodological approaches

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6090 Strategic Planning in South African Higher Education

Authors: Noxolo Mafu

Abstract:

This study presents an overview of strategic planning in South African higher education institutions by tracing its trends and mystique in order to identify its impact. Over the democratic decades, strategic planning has become integral to institutional survival. It has been used as a potent tool by several institutions to catch up and surpass counterparts. While planning has always been part of higher education, strategic planning should be considered different. Strategic planning is primarily about development and maintenance of a strategic fitting between an institution and its dynamic opportunities. This presupposes existence of sets of stages that institutions pursue of which, can be regarded for assessment of the impact of strategic planning in an institution. The network theory serves guides the study in demystifying apparent organisational networks in strategic planning processes.

Keywords: network theory, strategy, planning, strategic planning, assessment, impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 509
6089 Determination of the Economic Planning Depth for Assembly Process Planning

Authors: A. Kampker, P. Burggräf, Y. Bäumers

Abstract:

In order to be competitive, companies have to reduce their production costs while meeting increasing quality requirements. Therefore, companies try to plan their assembly processes as detailed as possible. However, increasing product individualization leading to a higher number of variants, smaller batch sizes and shorter product life cycles raise the question to what extent the effort of detailed planning is still justified. An important approach in this field of research is the concept of determining the economic planning depth for assembly process planning based on production specific influencing factors. In this paper, first solution hypotheses as well as a first draft of the resulting method will be presented.

Keywords: assembly process planning, economic planning depth, planning benefit, planning effort

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6088 Duality of Leagility and Governance: A New Normal Demand Network Management Paradigm under Pandemic

Authors: Jacky Hau

Abstract:

The prevalence of emerging technologies disrupts various industries as well as consumer behavior. Data collection has been in the fingertip and inherited through enabled Internet-of-things (IOT) devices. Big data analytics (BDA) becomes possible and allows real-time demand network management (DNM) through leagile supply chain. To enhance further on its resilience and predictability, governance is going to be examined to promote supply chain transparency and trust in an efficient manner. Leagility combines lean thinking and agile techniques in supply chain management. It aims at reducing costs and waste, as well as maintaining responsiveness to any volatile consumer demand by means of adjusting the decoupling point where the product flow changes from push to pull. Leagility would only be successful when collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) process or alike is in place throughout the supply chain business entities. Governance and procurement of the supply chain, however, is crucial and challenging for the execution of CPFR as every entity has to walk-the-talk generously for the sake of overall benefits of supply chain performance, not to mention the complexity of exercising the polices at both of within across various supply chain business entities on account of organizational behavior and mutual trust. Empirical survey results showed that the effective timespan on demand forecasting had been drastically shortening in the magnitude of months to weeks planning horizon, thus agility shall come first and preferably following by lean approach in a timely manner.

Keywords: governance, leagility, procure-to-pay, source-to-contract

Procedia PDF Downloads 77
6087 Analysis on the Development and Evolution of China’s Territorial Spatial Planning

Authors: He YuanYan

Abstract:

In recent years, China has implemented the reform of land and space planning. As an important public policy, land and space planning plays a vital role in the construction and development of cities. Land and space planning throughout the country is in full swing, but there are still many disputes from all walks of life. The content, scope, and specific implementation process of land and space planning are also ambiguous, leading to the integration of multiple regulation problems such as unclear authority, unclear responsibilities, and poor planning results during the implementation of land and space planning. Therefore, it is necessary to sort out the development and evolution of domestic and foreign land space planning, clarify the problems and cruxes from the current situation of China's land space planning, and sort out the obstacles and countermeasures to the implementation of this policy, so as to deepen the understanding of the connotation of land space planning. It is of great practical significance for all planners to correctly understand and clarify the specific contents and methods of land space planning and to smoothly promote the implementation of land space planning at all levels.

Keywords: territorial spatial planning, public policy, land space, overall planning

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6086 Enhancement of Long Term Peak Demand Forecast in Peninsular Malaysia Using Hourly Load Profile

Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

Abstract:

The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
6085 Enhancing Sell-In and Sell-Out Forecasting Using Ensemble Machine Learning Method

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

Abstract:

Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
6084 Policy Analysis on Family Planning in Pakistan: Providing Options to Improve Service Provision

Authors: M. Moiz

Abstract:

Family planning has been known and accepted as a key tool to decrease fertility, provides birth spacing and plays a vital role to attain better outcomes for maternal and child health. Pakistan initiated various family planning programs to preserve maternal and child health for six decades. However, less contraceptive use leading to high fertility and low birth spacing is ultimately a risk for increasing morbidity and mortality. As an outcome of 2012 London Summit on Family Planning where 20 countries including Pakistan made its commitment to increase contraceptive prevalence rate by 55% and provide a universal access to reproductive health to protect human rights of women and ensure safe, choice informed and affordable contraceptives throughout the country. This paper will assess some of the factors of service delivery, coverage and the role of Ministry of Health and Population Welfare Department in providing Family Planning services and how it can be improved in Pakistan. In view of Pakistan Demographic Health Survey 2017-18, there are total nine million potential users of contraceptives and one third among them never used with unmet need while every fifth pregnancy ends into abortion indicates need for Family Planning services. In order to explain this concern, a comprehensive analysis has been done on role of governance in implementing family planning policy and its limitations are discussed. Moreover, this paper highlights policy options and recommendations for improving service provision through public and private sector in creating demand for Family Planning services in Pakistan.

Keywords: contraceptive prevalence rate, family planning, maternal and child health, policy options

Procedia PDF Downloads 124