Search results for: change of trend

Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

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In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Issa Fofana, Brima Gegbe, Tamba I. Isaac

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Rice grain is Sierra Leone’s staple food and the nation imports over 120,000 metric tons annually due to a shortfall in its cultivation. Thus, the insufficient level of the crop's cultivation in Sierra Leone is caused by many problems and this led to the endlessly widening supply and demand for the crop within the country. Consequently, this has instigated the government to spend huge money on the importation of this grain that would have been otherwise cultivated domestically at a cheaper cost. Hence, this research attempts to explore the response of rice supply with respect to its demand in Sierra Leone within the period 1980-2010. The Nerlovian adjustment model to the Sierra Leone rice data set within the period 1980-2010 was used. The estimated trend equations revealed that time had significant effect on output, productivity (yield) and area (acreage) of rice grain within the period 1980-2010 and this occurred generally at the 1% level of significance. The results showed that, almost the entire growth in output had the tendency to increase in the area cultivated to the crop. The time trend variable that was included for government policy intervention showed an insignificant effect on all the variables considered in this research. Therefore, both the short-run and long-run price response was inelastic since all their values were less than one. From the findings above, immediate actions that will lead to productivity growth in rice cultivation are required. To achieve the above, the responsible agencies should provide extension service schemes to farmers as well as motivating them on the adoption of modern rice varieties and technology in their rice cultivation ventures.

Keywords: Nerlovian adjustment model, price elasticities, Sierra Leone, trend equations

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Authors: Sudarshan Chalise, Athula Naranpanawa

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This paper attempts to investigate the viability of cropland re-allocation as an adaptation strategy to minimise the economy-wide costs of climate change on agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it is one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies within South Asia. This paper develops a comparative static multi-household Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal with a nested set of Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) functional forms to model the allocation of land within different agricultural sectors. Land transformation elasticities in these CET functions are allowed to reflect the ease of switching from one crop to another based on their agronomic characteristics. The results suggest that, in the long run, farmers in Nepal tend to allocate land to crops that are comparatively less impacted by climate change, such as paddy, thereby minimizing the economy-wide impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the results reveal that land re-allocation tends to reduce the income disparity among different household groups by significantly moderating the income losses of rural marginal farmers. Therefore, it is suggested that policy makers in Nepal should prioritise schemes such as providing climate-smart paddy varieties (i.e., those that are resistant to heat, drought and floods) to farmers, subsidising fertilizers, improving agronomic practices, and educating farmers to switch from crops that are highly impacted by climate change to those that are not, such as paddy.

Keywords: climate change, general equilibrium, land re-allocation, nepalese agriculture

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Authors: Gabriel Jinga, Madalina Dumitru

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The objective of this paper is to present the process of change in management accounting in Romania, a former communist country from Eastern Europe. In order to explain this process, we used the contingency and institutional theories. We focused on the following directions: the presentation of the scientific context and motivation of this research and the case study. We presented the state of the art in the process of change in the management accounting from the international and national perspective. We also described the evolution of management accounting in Romania in the context of economic and political changes. An important moment was the fall of communism in 1989. This represents a starting point for a new economic environment and for new management accounting. Accordingly, we developed a case study which presented this evolution. The conclusion of our research was that the changes in the management accounting system of the company analysed occurred in the same time with the institutionalization of some elements (e.g. degree of competition, training and competencies in management accounting). The management accounting system was modeled by the contingencies specific to this company (e.g. environment, industry, strategy).

Keywords: management accounting, change, Romania, contingency, institutional theory

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Authors: Banazzouz Halima

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Throughout the ages, language has been viewed not only as a simple code of communicating information but rather as the most powerful and versatile medium of maintaining relationships with other people. While,by the end of the 18th century, such matters of scientific investigation concerning the study of human language began to occur under the scope of “Linguistics” generally defined as the scientific study of language. Linguistics, thus, provides a growing body of scientific knowledge about language which can guide the activity of the language teacher and student as well. Moreover,as times passed, the linguistic development engaged language in a broadly practiced academic discipline having relationship with other sciences such as: psychology, sociology, anthropology etc. Therefore, “Sociolinguistics” was given birth during the 1960’s. In fact, the given abstract is mainly linguistic, inserted under the scope of “Sociolinguistics” and by far it highlights on the process of linguistic variation and language change to show that all languages change through time and linguistic systems may vary from one speech community to another providing there is a sense of vitality where people of different parts of the globe may mutually and intelligibly communicate and comprehend each other.

Keywords: language change-sociolinguistics, social context-speech community, vitality of language, linguistic variation, urban dialectology, urban dialectology

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Authors: V. Jafari, M. Jafari

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When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.

Keywords: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, climate change, impacts, Iran, milk production

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Authors: Shivi Agarwal, Trilok Mathur

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This paper proposes the method to measure the total factor productivity (TFP) change by credibility theory for fuzzy input and output variables. Total factor productivity change has been widely studied with crisp input and output variables, however, in some cases, input and output data of decision-making units (DMUs) can be measured with uncertainty. These data can be represented as linguistic variable characterized by fuzzy numbers. Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is widely used to estimate the TFP change by calculating the total factor productivity of a DMU for different time periods using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The fuzzy DEA (FDEA) model is solved using the credibility theory. The results of FDEA is used to measure the TFP change for fuzzy input and output variables. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed method to measure the TFP change input and output variables. The suggested methodology can be utilized for performance evaluation of DMUs and help to assess the level of integration. The methodology can also apply to rank the DMUs and can find out the DMUs that are lagging behind and make recommendations as to how they can improve their performance to bring them at par with other DMUs.

Keywords: chance-constrained programming, credibility theory, data envelopment analysis, fuzzy data, Malmquist productivity index

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Authors: Nemanja Kidzin, Danka Puric

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Recently, the field of personality change has received an increasing amount of attention. Previously under-researched variables, such as the intention to change or taking on new social roles (in a working environment, education, family, etc.), have been shown to be relevant for personality change. Following this line of research, our study aimed to determine whether the process of acting can bring about personality changes in students of acting and, if yes, in which way. We hypothesized that there will be a significant difference between self-reported personality traits of students acting at the beginning and the end of preparing for a role. Additionally, as potential moderator variables, we measured the reported personality traits of the roles the students were acting, as well as empathy, disintegration, and years of formal education. The sample (N = 47) was composed of students of acting from the Faculty of Dramatic Arts (first- to fourth-year) and the Faculty of Modern Arts (first-year students only). Participants' mean age was 20.2 (SD = 1.47), and there were 64% of females. The procedure included two waves of testing (T1 at the beginning and T2 at the end of the semester), and students’ acting exercises and character immersion comprised the pseudo-experimental procedure. Students’ personality traits (HEXACO-60, self-report version), empathy (Questionnaire of Cognitive and Affective Empathy, QCAE), and disintegration (DELTA9, 10-item version) were measured at both T1 and T2, while the personality of the role (HEXACO-60 observer version) was measured at T2. Responses to all instruments were given on a 5-point Likert scale. A series of repeated-measures T-tests showed significant differences in emotionality (t(46) = 2.56, p = 0.014) and conscientiousness (t(46) = -2.39, p = 0.021) between T1 and T2. Moreover, an index of absolute personality change was significantly different from 0 for all traits (range .53 to .34, t(46) = 4.20, p < .001 for the lowest index. The average test-retest correlation for HEXACO traits was 0.57, which is lower than proposed by other similar researches. As for moderator variables, neither the personality of the role nor empathy or disintegration explained the change in students’ personality traits. The magnitude of personality change was the highest in fourth-year students, with no significant differences between the remaining three years of studying. Overall, our results seem to indicate some personality changes in students of acting. However, these changes cannot be unequivocally related to the process of preparing for a role. Further and methodologically stricter research is needed to unravel the role of acting in personality change.

Keywords: theater, personality change, acting, HEXACO

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Authors: Indu Gupta

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Climate change and global warming is most burning issue for “our common future”. For this common global interest. Countries organize conferences of government and nongovernment type. Human being destroying the non-renewable resources and polluting the renewable resources of planet for economic growth. Air pollution is mainly responsible for global warming and climate change .Due to global warming ice glaciers are shrinking and melting. Forests are shrinking, deserts expanding and soil eroding. The depletion of stratospheric ozone layer is depleting and hole in ozone layer that protect us from harmful ultra violet radiation. Extreme high temperature in summer and extreme low temperature and smog in winters, floods in rainy season. These all are indication of climate change. The level of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gases in the atmosphere is increasing at high speed. Nation’s are worried about environmental degradation.

Keywords: environmental degradation, global warming, soil eroding, ultra-Violate radiation

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Authors: Cai J. T. Ladd, Mollie F. Duggan-Edwards, Tjeerd J. Bouma, Jordi F. Pages, Martin W. Skov

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Salt marshes are valued for their role in coastal flood protection, carbon storage, and for supporting biodiverse ecosystems. As a biogeomorphic landscape, marshes evolve through the complex interactions between sea level rise, sediment supply and wave/current forcing, as well as and socio-economic factors. Climate change and direct human modification could lead to a global decline marsh extent if left unchecked. Whilst the processes of saltmarsh erosion and expansion are well understood, empirical evidence on the key drivers of long-term lateral marsh dynamics is lacking. In a GIS, saltmarsh areal extent in 25 estuaries across Great Britain was calculated from historical maps and aerial photographs, at intervals of approximately 30 years between 1846 and 2016. Data on the key perceived drivers of lateral marsh change (namely sea level rise rates, suspended sediment concentration, bedload sediment flux rates, and frequency of both river flood and storm events) were collated from national monitoring centres. Continuous datasets did not extend beyond 1970, therefore predictor variables that best explained rate change of marsh extent between 1970 and 2016 was calculated using a Partial Least Squares Regression model. Information about the spread of Spartina anglica (an invasive marsh plant responsible for marsh expansion around the globe) and coastal engineering works that may have impacted on marsh extent, were also recorded from historical documents and their impacts assessed on long-term, large-scale marsh extent change. Results showed that salt marshes in the northern regions of Great Britain expanded an average of 2.0 ha/yr, whilst marshes in the south eroded an average of -5.3 ha/yr. Spartina invasion and coastal engineering works could not explain these trends since a trend of either expansion or erosion preceded these events. Results from the Partial Least Squares Regression model indicated that the rate of relative sea level rise (RSLR) and availability of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) best explained the patterns of marsh change. RSLR increased from 1.6 to 2.8 mm/yr, as SSC decreased from 404.2 to 78.56 mg/l along the north-to-south gradient of Great Britain, resulting in the shift from marsh expansion to erosion. Regional differences in RSLR and SSC are due to isostatic rebound since deglaciation, and tidal amplitudes respectively. Marshes exposed to low RSLR and high SSC likely leads to sediment accumulation at the coast suitable for colonisation by marsh plants and thus lateral expansion. In contrast, high RSLR with are likely not offset deposition under low SSC, thus average water depth at the marsh edge increases, allowing larger wind-waves to trigger marsh erosion. Current global declines in sediment flux to the coast are likely to diminish the resilience of salt marshes to RSLR. Monitoring and managing suspended sediment supply is not common-place, but may be critical to mitigating coastal impacts from climate change.

Keywords: lateral saltmarsh dynamics, sea level rise, sediment supply, wave forcing

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Authors: Zoltán Weltsch, József Hlinka, Eszter Kókai

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The temperature dependence of wettability (wetting angle, Θ (T)) for Ag-based melts on graphite and Al2O3 substrates is compared. Typical alloying effects are found, as the Ag host metal is gradually replaced by various metallic elements. The essence of alloying lies in the change of the electron/atom (e/a) ratio. This ratio is also manifested in the shift of wetting angles on the same substrate. Nevertheless, the effects are partially smeared by other (metallurgical) factors, like the interaction between the oxygen-alloying elements and by the graphite substrate-oxygen interaction. In contrast, such effects are not pronounced in the case of Al2O3 substrates. As a consequence, Θ(T) exhibits an opposite trend in the case of two substrates. Crossovers of the Θ(T) curves were often found. The positions of crossovers depend on the chemical character and concentration of solute atoms. Segregation and epitaxial texture formation after solidification were also observed in certain alloy drops, especially in high concentration range. This phenomenon is not yet explained in every detail.

Keywords: contact angle, graphite, silver, soldering, solid solubility, substrate, temperature dependence, wetting

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Authors: Gabriel Jinga, Madalina Dumitru

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The objective of this paper is to present the process of change in management accounting in Romania, a former communist country from Eastern Europe. In order to explain this process, we used the contingency and institutional theories. We focused on the following directions: the presentation of the scientific context and motivation of this research and the case study. We presented the state of the art in the process of change in the management accounting from the international and national perspective. We also described the evolution of management accounting in Romania in the context of economic and political changes. An important moment was the fall of communism in 1989. This represents a starting point for a new economic environment and for new management accounting. Accordingly, we developed a case study which presented this evolution. The conclusion of our research was that the changes in the management accounting system of the company analysed occurred in the same time with the institutionalisation of some elements (e.g. degree of competition, training and competencies in management accounting). The management accounting system was modelled by the contingencies specific to this company (e.g. environment, industry, strategy).

Keywords: management accounting, change, Romania, contingency and institutional theory

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Authors: Sabahat Zahra

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The purpose of this research is to present the changing global environment and its potential impacts on sustainable food and energy production at global level, particularly in Pakistan. The food and energy related-economic sector has been subjected to negative consequences due to recent extreme changes in weather conditions, particularly in developing countries. Besides continuous modifications in weather, population is also increasing by time, therefore it is necessary to take special steps and start effective initiatives to cope with the challenges of food and energy security to fight hunger and for economic stability of country. Severe increase in temperature and heat waves has also negative impacts on food production as well as energy sustainability. Energy (in terms of electricity) consumption has grown up than the production potential of the country as a consequence of increasing warm weather. Ultimately prices gone up when there is more consumption than production. Therefore, all these aspects of climate change are interrelated with socio-economic issues. There is a need to develop long-term policies on regional and national levels for maintainable economic growth. This research presents a framework-plan and recommendations for implementation needed to mitigate the potential threats due to global climate change sustainable food and energy production under climate change in the country.

Keywords: climate changes, energy security, food security, global climate change

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Authors: Falak Nawaz

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The Climate Change Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment carried out in the coastal regions of Thatta and Malir districts underscore the potential risks and challenges associated with climate change affecting water resources. This study was conducted by the author using participatory rural appraisal tools, with a greater focus on conducting focus group discussions, direct observations, key informant interviews, and other PRA tools. The assessment delves into the specific impacts of climate change along the coastal belt, concentrating on aspects such as rising sea levels, depletion of freshwater, alterations in precipitation patterns, fluctuations in water table levels, and the intrusion of saltwater into rivers. These factors have significant consequences for the availability and quality of water resources in coastal areas, manifesting in frequent migration and alterations in agriculture-based livelihood practices. Furthermore, the assessment assesses the adaptive capacity of communities and organizations in these coastal regions to effectively confront and alleviate the effects of climate change on water resources. It considers various measures, including infrastructure enhancements, water management practices, adjustments in agricultural approaches, and disaster preparedness, aiming to bolster adaptive capacity. The study's findings emphasize the necessity for prompt actions to address identified vulnerabilities and fortify the adaptive capacities of Sindh's coastal areas. This calls for comprehensive strategies and policies promoting sustainable water resource management, integrating climate change considerations, and providing essential resources and support to vulnerable communities.

Keywords: climate, climate change adaptation, disaster reselience, vulnerability, capacity, assessment

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Authors: Hussein Lujuo Mohamed

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Introduction: Public health has always been influenced by climate and weather. Changes in climate and climate variability, particularly changes in weather extremes affect the environment that provides people with clean air, food, water, shelter, and security. Tanzania is not an exception to the threats of climate change. The health sector is mostly affected due to emergence and proliferation of infectious diseases, thereby affecting health of the population and thus impacting achievement of sustainable development goals. Methodology: A desk review on documented issues pertaining to climate change and health in Tanzania was done using Google search engine. Keywords included climate change, link, health, climate initiatives. In cases where information was not available, documents from Ministry of Health, Vice Presidents Office-Environment, Local Government Authority, Ministry of Water, WHO, research, and training institutions were reviewed. Some of the reviewed documents from these institutions include policy brief papers, fieldwork activity reports, training manuals, and guidelines. Results: Six main climate resilience activities were identified in Tanzania. These were development and implementation of climate resilient water safety plans guidelines both for rural and urban water authorities, capacity building of rural and urban water authorities on implementation of climate-resilient water safety plans, and capacity strengthening of local environmental health practitioners on mainstreaming climate change and health into comprehensive council health plans. Others were vulnerability and adaptation assessment for the health sector, mainstreaming climate change in the National Health Policy, and development of risk communication strategy on climate. In addition information, education, and communication materials on climate change and to create awareness were developed aiming to sensitize and create awareness among communities on climate change issues and its effect on public health. Conclusion: Proper implementation of these interventions will help the country become resilient to many impacts of climate change in the health sector and become a good example for other least developed countries.

Keywords: climate, change, Tanzania, health

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Authors: Wenwen Liu, Robert Burton, Simon McKeown

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Climate change is seriously threatening human security and development, leading to global warming and economic, political, and social chaos. Many artists have created visual responses that challenge perceptions on climate change, actively guiding people to think about the climate issues and potential crises after urban industrialization and explore positive solutions. This project is an interdisciplinary and intertextual study where art practice is informed by culture, philosophy, psychology, ecology, and science. By correlating theory and artistic practice, it studies how art practice creates a new way of understanding climate issues and uses art as a way of exploring speculative futures. In the context of practical-based research, arts-based practice as research and creative practice as interdisciplinary research are applied alternately to seek the original solution and new knowledge. Through creative art practice, this project has established new visual ways of looking at climate change and has developed it into a new model to generate more possibilities, an alternative social imagination. It not only encourages people to think and find a sustainable speculative future conducive to all species but also proves that people have the ability to realize positive futures.

Keywords: climate change, creative practice as interdisciplinary research, arts-based practice as research, creative art practice, speculative future

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Authors: Pshtiwan Shafiq Ahmed

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The invasion of Iraq was a turning point in Iraq, destroying the economic infrastructure of several important strategic and historic cities, including Mosul, Anbar and Diyala, which will take decades to rebuild It left 18,805 people dead and 37,000 injured, destroying hundreds of villages and cities, displacing 2.3 million people, and increasing the number of orphans The increase in the number of windows and the destruction of society and the structure of the population so that the number of children, women and the elderly has increased. Religious clashes have increased and religious cleansing has begun, trying to eradicate Christianity, Yazidis and Kakais from the whole of Iraq, causing the largest number of Christians, Yazidis and Kakais to leave Iraq and many of them went missing.

Keywords: ISIS, population change, geographical change, Iraq

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Authors: C. Iitake, K. Iitake

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Background and Aims: The number of diabetic patients based on obesity is increasing drastically in Asia. Since most patients have multiple complications, if one medicine can treat those at the same time, it would contribute to financial savings and patients’ compliance. A Japanese-made DPP-4 inhibitor, Anagliptin is only sold in Japan and South Korea. It is said to have its unique aspect of lowering LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels together with lowering blood glucose. We have assessed 63 patients in our faculty to investigate this fact clinically and statistically. Method: Patients with type 2 diabetes who has been treated with Anagliptin for the first time was investigated changes in HbA1c, fasting and random blood glucose and LDL-C levels from the baseline at 1 month, 6 months and 1 year. Results: 29 patients (46.1%) were given DPP-4 inhibitors for the first time (original group), and 34 patients (53.9%) were using other DPP-4 inhibitors before Anagliptin (exchanged group). The change in HbA1c and fasting glucose from the baseline were -2.0% (P < 0.001) and -38.3mg/dl (P < 0.01) respectively with original group, -0.5% (P < 0.01) and -29.4mg/dl (P < 0.01) respectively with exchanged group. 23 patients (36.5%) were using statins or fibrates and 28 patients (44.4%) were using none, and its LDL-C change were -8.1mg/dl (P = 0.2582) and -10.1mg/dl(P < 0.05) respectively. 16 patients(25%) with LDL-C level ≥ 140mg/dl, change were -21.7mg/dl(P < 0.05). LDL-C change did not have a correlation coefficient (=-0.03238) with change in HbA1c and was not affected by other diabetic drugs. Conclusion: These findings indicate that Anagliptin is a potential treatment option for type 2 diabetes complicated by hyperlipidemia.

Keywords: DPP-4 inhibitors, anagliptin, LDL-cholesterol, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Chang Li Yu

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Resistances commonly happened during sexual offenders treatment program (SOTP), and removing resistances was one of the treatment goals on it. Studies concerning treatment effectiveness relied on pre- and post-treatment evaluations, however, no significant difference on resistance revealed after treatment, and the above consequences generally contributed to the low motivation for change instead. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the resistance across each stage of change among sexual offenders (SO). The present study recruited prisoned SO in Taiwan, excluding those with literacy difficulties; finally, 272 participants were included. Of all participants completed revised version of URICA (University of Rhode Island Change Assessment) and resistance scale specifically for SO. The former included four stages of change: pre-contemplation (PC), contemplation (C), action (A), and maintain (M); the later composed eight types of resistance: system blaming, victims blaming, problems with treatment alliance, social justification, hopelessness, isolation, psychological reactance, and passive reactance. Both of the instruments were with well reliability and validity. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA were performed. All of 272 participants, age under 25 were 18(6.6%), 25-39 were 133(48.9%), 40-54 were 102(37.5%), and age over 55 were 19(7.0%); college level and above were 53(19.5%), high school level were 110(40.4%), and under high school level were 109(40.1%); first offended were 117(43.0%), and recidivist were 23(8.5%). Further deleting data with missing values and invalid questionnaires, SO with stage of change on PC were 43(18.9%), C were 109(47.8%), A were 70(30.7%), and on M were 6(2.6%). One-way ANOVA showed significant differences on every kind of resistances, excepting isolation and passive reactance. Post-hoc analysis showed that SO with different stages had their main resistance. There are two contributions to the present study. First, this study provided a clinical and theoretical measurement of evaluation that was never used in the past. Second, this study used an evidence-based methodology to prove a clinical perspective differed from the past, suggesting that resistances to treatment on SO appear the whole therapeutic process, when SO progress into the next stage of change, clinicians have to deal with their main resistance for working through the therapy.

Keywords: resistance, sexual offenders treatment program (SOTP), motivation for change, prisoned sexual offender

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Authors: Suresh Hettiarachchi, Conrad Wasko, Ashish Sharma

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The ever changing and expanding urban landscape increases the stress on urban systems to support and maintain safe and functional living spaces. Flooding presents one of the more serious threats to this safety, putting a larger number of people in harm’s way in congested urban settings. Climate change is adding to this stress by creating a dichotomy in the urban flood response. On the one hand, climate change is causing storms to intensify, resulting in more destructive, rarer floods, while on the other hand, longer dry periods are decreasing the severity of more frequent, less intense floods. This variability is creating a need to be more agile and innovative in how we design for and manage urban flooding. Here, we argue that to cope with this challenge climate change brings, we need to move towards urban flood management through resilience rather than flood prevention. We also argue that dealing with the larger variation in flood response to climate change means that we need to look at flooding from all aspects rather than the single-dimensional focus of flood depths and extents. In essence, we need to rethink how we manage flooding in the urban space. This change in our thought process and approach to flood management requires a practical way to assess and quantify resilience that is built into the urban landscape so that informed decision-making can support the required changes in planning and infrastructure design. Towards that end, we propose a Simple Urban Flood Resilience Index (SUFRI) based on a robust definition of resilience as a tool to assess flood resilience. The application of a simple resilience index such as the SUFRI can provide a practical tool that considers urban flood management in a multi-dimensional way and can present solutions that were not previously considered. When such an index is grounded on a clear and relevant definition of resilience, it can be a reliable and defensible way to assess and assist the process of adapting to the increasing challenges in urban flood management with climate change.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, climate change, flood management, flood modelling

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Authors: Rolf Katzenbach, Frithjof Clauss, Jie Zheng

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The final energy use can be divided mainly in four sectors: commercial, industrial, residential, and transportation. The trend in final energy consumption by sector plays as a most straightforward way to provide a wide indication of progress for reducing energy consumption and associated environmental impacts by different end use sectors. According to statistics the average share of end use energy for residential sector in the world was nearly 20% until 2011, in Germany a higher proportion is between 25% and 30%. However, it remains less studied than energy use in other three sectors as well its impacts on climate and environment. The reason for this involves a wide range of fields, including the diversity of residential construction like different housing building design and materials, living or energy using behavioral patterns, climatic condition and variation as well other social obstacles, market trend potential and financial support from government. This paper presents an extensive and in-depth analysis of the manner by which projects researched and operated by authors in the fields of energy efficiency primarily from the perspectives of both technical potential and initiative energy saving consciousness in the residential sectors especially in social housing buildings.

Keywords: energy efficiency, renewable energy, retro-commissioning, social housing, sustainability

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Authors: Lea Lachaud, Aida Raoult, Marion Trousselard, Francois B. Vialatte

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This paper addresses mindfulness from a psychological and neuroscientific perspective, by studying how it modulates attention. Being mindful defines a state characterized by 1-an attention directed to the subjective experience of present moment, 2-an unconditional acceptance of this experience, and 3-the rejection of systematic rationalization in favor of plain awareness. The aim of this study is to investigate whether perceptual salience filters are lowered in a ‘mindful’ condition by exploring the role of being mindful in focused visual attention. Over the past decade, mindfulness therapies have seen a surge in popularity. While the outcomes of these therapies have been widely discussed, the mechanisms whereby meditation affects the brain remain mostly unknown. To explore the role of mindfulness in focused visual attention, we conducted a change blindness experiment on 24 subjects, 12 of them being mindful according to the Freiburg Mindfulness Inventory (FMI) scale. Our results suggest that mindful subjects are less affected by change blindness than non-mindful subjects. Furthermore, EEG measurements performed during the experiments may expose neural correlates specific to the mindful state on P300 evoked potentials. Finally, the analysis of both amplitude and latency caused by the perception of a change over 864 recordings may reveal biomarkers that are typical of this state. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of these results for further research.

Keywords: EEG, change blindness, mindfulness, p300, perception, visual attention

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Climate change has led to decreased water availability in the Gomti Nagar area of Uttar Pradesh, India. Climate change has reduced the amount of precipitation and increased the rate of evaporation. The region is heavily reliant on surface water sources (Gomti river, Sharda Canal) and groundwater. Efficient management of groundwater resources is crucial for addressing water shortages. These may include: Exploring alternative water sources, such as wastewater recycling and desalination, can help augment water supply and reduce dependency on rainfall-dependent sources. Promoting the use of water-efficient technologies in industries, agriculture, and water-efficient infrastructure in urban areas can contribute to reducing water demand and optimizing water use. Incorporating climate change considerations into urban planning and infrastructure development can help ensure water security in the face of future climate uncertainties. Addressing water scarcity in the Gomti Nagar area requires a multi-pronged approach that combines sustainable groundwater management practices, climate change adaptation strategies, and integrated water resource management. By implementing these measures, the region can work towards ensuring a more sustainable and reliable water supply in the context of climate change. Water is the most important natural resource for the existence of living beings in the Earth's ecosystem. On Earth, 1.2 percent of the water is drinkable, but only 0.3 percent is usable by people. Water scarcity is a growing concern in India due to the impact of climate change and over-exploitation of water resources. Excess groundwater withdrawal causes regular declines in groundwater level. Due to city boundary expansion and growing urbanization, the recharge point for groundwater tables is decreasing. Rainwater infiltration into the subsoil is also reduced by unplanned, uneven settlements in urban change.

Keywords: climate change, water scarcity, groundwater, rainfall, water supply

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Authors: Ruchika Malhotra, Megha Khanna

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The development of change prediction models can help the software practitioners in planning testing and inspection resources at early phases of software development. However, a major challenge faced during the training process of any classification model is the imbalanced nature of the software quality data. A data with very few minority outcome categories leads to inefficient learning process and a classification model developed from the imbalanced data generally does not predict these minority categories correctly. Thus, for a given dataset, a minority of classes may be change prone whereas a majority of classes may be non-change prone. This study explores various alternatives for adeptly handling the imbalanced software quality data using different sampling methods and effective MetaCost learners. The study also analyzes and justifies the use of different performance metrics while dealing with the imbalanced data. In order to empirically validate different alternatives, the study uses change data from three application packages of open-source Android data set and evaluates the performance of six different machine learning techniques. The results of the study indicate extensive improvement in the performance of the classification models when using resampling method and robust performance measures.

Keywords: change proneness, empirical validation, imbalanced learning, machine learning techniques, object-oriented metrics

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: T. M. Buthelezi, E. O. Olagundoye, R. G. L. Cele

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This article argues that whilst African folklore has mainly been used for entertainment, it also has an educational value that has power to change young people’s attitudes and behavior. The paper is informed by the findings from the data that was generated from 154 university students who were coming from diverse backgrounds. The qualitative data was thematically analysed. Referring to the six steps of the behaviour change model, we found that African Folklore provides relevant cultural knowledge and instills values that enable young people to engage on self-reflection that eventually leads them towards attitudinal changes and behaviour modification. Using the transformative learning theory, we argue that African Folklore in itself is a pedagogical strategy that integrates cultural knowledge, values with entertainment elements concisely enough to take the young people through a transformative phase which encompasses psychological, convictional and life-style adaptation. During data production stage all ethical considerations were observed including obtaining gatekeeper’s permission letter and ethical clearance certificate from the Ethics Committee of the University. The paper recommends that African Folklore approach should be incorporated into the school curriculum particularly in life skills education with aims to change behaviour.

Keywords: African folklore, young people, attitudinal, behavior change, university students

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Authors: Kgopa Bontle, Tholen Sodi

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Climate change poses a major threat to the well-being of both people and the environment, with subsistence farmers most affected as they rely on local supply systems that are sensitive to climate variation. This study documented psychological resilience factors associated with climate change adaptations by subsistence farmers in Maruleng Municipality, Limpopo Province. A qualitative study was conducted to examine the notions of climate change by subsistence farmers, the psychological resilience factors, the strategies to cope with climate change, adaptation methods, and the development of subsistence farmers’ psychological resilience factors model. Data were collected through direct interactions with participants using a grounded theory research design. An open-ended interview was used to collect data with a sample of 15 participants selected through theoretical sampling in Maruleng Municipality. The participants were both Sepedi and Xitsonga speaking from 2 villages, mostly unemployed, pensioners and dependent on social grants. The study included both males and females who were predominately the elderly. The research findings indicate that farmers have limited knowledge of what climate change is and what causes it. Furthermore, the research reflects that although their responses were non-scientific but sensible enough to know what they were dealing with. They mentioned extreme weather, which includes hot days and less rainfall and changes in seasons, as some of the impacts brought by climate change. The results also indicated that participants have learned to adapt through several adaptation strategies, including mulching, changes in irrigation time slots and being innovative. The resilience factors that emerged from the study were a passion for farming, hope, enthusiasm, courage, acceptance/tolerance, livelihood and belief systems. Looking at the socio-economic factors of the current study setting argumentation leads to the conclusion that it is important that government should assist the subsistence farmers as it was observed from the participants that they felt neglected by the government and policymakers as they are small scale farmers and are not included like commercial farmers.

Keywords: climate change, psychological resilience factors, human adaptation, subsistence farmers

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Authors: Diane Ghanem, Arjun Gupta, Rohan Vijayan, Ali Uneri, Babar Shafiq

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Introduction: Ankle sprains and fractures often result in syndesmosis injuries. Unstable syndesmotic injuries result from relative motion between the distal ends of the tibia and fibula, anatomic juncture which should otherwise be rigid, and warrant operative management. Clinical and radiological evaluations of intraoperative syndesmosis stability remain a challenging task as traditional 2D fluoroscopy is limited to a uniplanar translational displacement. The purpose of this pilot cadaveric study is to compare the 2D fluoroscopy and 3D cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) stress-induced syndesmosis displacements. Methods: Three fresh-frozen lower legs underwent 2D fluoroscopy and 3D CIOS CBCT to measure syndesmosis position before dissection. Syndesmotic injury was simulated by resecting the (1) anterior inferior tibiofibular ligament (AITFL), the (2) posterior inferior tibiofibular ligament (PITFL) and the inferior transverse ligament (ITL) simultaneously, followed by the (3) interosseous membrane (IOM). Manual external rotation and Cotton stress test were performed after each of the three resections and 2D and 3D images were acquired. Relevant 2D and 3D parameters included the tibiofibular overlap (TFO), tibiofibular clear space (TCS), relative rotation of the fibula, and anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) translations of the fibula relative to the tibia. Parameters were measured by two independent observers. Inter-rater reliability was assessed by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) to determine measurement precision. Results: Significant mismatches were found in the trends between the 2D and 3D measurements when assessing for TFO, TCS and AP translation across the different resection states. Using 3D CBCT, TFO was inversely proportional to the number of resected ligaments while TCS was directly proportional to the latter across all cadavers and ‘resection + stress’ states. Using 2D fluoroscopy, this trend was not respected under the Cotton stress test. 3D AP translation did not show a reliable trend whereas 2D AP translation of the fibula was positive under the Cotton stress test and negative under the external rotation. 3D relative rotation of the fibula, assessed using the Tang et al. ratio method and Beisemann et al. angular method, suggested slight overall internal rotation with complete resection of the ligaments, with a change < 2mm - threshold which corresponds to the commonly used buffer to account for physiologic laxity as per clinical judgment of the surgeon. Excellent agreement (>0.90) was found between the two independent observers for each of the parameters in both 2D and 3D (overall ICC 0.9968, 95% CI 0.995 - 0.999). Conclusions: The 3D CIOS CBCT appears to reliably depict the trend in TFO and TCS. This might be due to the additional detection of relevant rotational malpositions of the fibula in comparison to the standard 2D fluoroscopy which is limited to a single plane translation. A better understanding of 3D imaging may help surgeons identify the precise measurements planes needed to achieve better syndesmosis repair.

Keywords: 2D fluoroscopy, 3D computed tomography, image processing, syndesmosis injury

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Authors: S. Curtin, A. Trace

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Introduction: As patients can often be ambivalent about or resistant to any change in their smoking behavior the traditional ‘5 A’ model may be limited as it assumes that patients are ready and motivated to change. However, there is a stage model that is helpful to give guidance for dental students: the Transtheoretical Model (TTM). This model allows students to understand the tasks and goals for the pre-contemplation stage. The TTM was introduced in early stages as a core component of a smoking cessation programme that was integrated into a Behavioral Science programme as applied to dentistry. The aim of the present study is to evaluate and illustrate the students’ current level of knowledge from the questions the students generated in order to engage patients in the tasks and goals of the pre-contemplation stage. Method: N=47 responses of fifth-year undergraduate dental students. These responses were the data set for this study and related to their knowledge base of appropriate questions for a dentist to ask at the pre-contemplation stage of change. A deductive -descriptive analysis was conducted on the data. The goals and tasks of the pre-contemplation stage of the TTM provided a template for this deductive analysis. Results: 51% of students generated relevant, open, exploratory questions for the pre-contemplation stage, whilst 100% of students generated closed questions. With regard to those questions appropriate for the pre-contemplation stage, 19% were open and exploratory, while 66% were closed questions. A deductive analysis of the open exploratory questions revealed that 53% of the questions addressed increased concern about the current pattern of behavior, 38% of the questions concerned increased awareness of a need for change and only 8% of the questions dealt with the envisioning of the possibility of change. Conclusion: All students formulated relevant questions for the pre-contemplation stage, and half of the students generated the open, exploratory questions that increased patients’ awareness of the need to change. More training is required to facilitate a shift in the formulation from closed to open questioning, especially given that, traditionally, smoking cessation was modeled on the ‘5 As’, and that the general training for dentists supports an advisory and directive approach.

Keywords: behaviour change, pre-contemplation stage, trans-theoretical model, undergraduate dentistry students

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