Search results for: stochastic inventory system

Authors: L. Edirisinghe, Zhihong Jin, A. W. Wijeratne, R. Mudunkotuwa

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The virtual container yard is an effective solution to the container inventory imbalance problem which is a global issue. It causes substantial cost to carriers, which inadvertently adds to the prices of consumer goods. The virtual container yard is rooted in the fundamentals of container interchange between carriers. If carriers opt to interchange their excess containers with those who are deficit, a substantial part of the empty reposition cost could be eliminated. Unlike in other types of ships, cargo cannot be directly loaded to a container ship. Slots and containers are supplementary components; thus, without containers, a carrier cannot ship cargo if the containers are not available and vice versa. Few decades ago, carriers recognized slot (the unit of space in a container ship) interchange as a viable solution for the imbalance of shipping space. Carriers interchange slots among them and it also increases the advantage of scale of economies in container shipping. Some of these service agreements between mega carriers have provisions to interchange containers too. However, the interchange mechanism is still not popular among carriers for containers. This is the paradox that prevails in the liner shipping industry. At present, carriers reposition their excess empty containers to areas where they are in demand. This research applied factor analysis statistical method. The paper reveals that five major components may influence the virtual container yard namely organisation, practice and culture, legal and environment, international nature, and marketing. There are 12 variables that may impact the virtual container yard, and these are explained in the paper.

Keywords: virtual container yard, shipping, imbalance, management, inventory

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Authors: Y. Wang, S. Zhang, X. Chen

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The longitudinal compressive strength of fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) possess a large stochastic variability, which limits efficient application of composite structures. This study aims to address how the random fibre packing affects the uncertainty of FRP compressive strength. An novel approach is proposed to generate random fibre packing status by a combination of Latin hypercube sampling and random sequential expansion. 3D nonlinear finite element model is built which incorporates both the matrix plasticity and fibre geometrical instability. The matrix is modeled by isotropic ideal elasto-plastic solid elements, and the fibres are modeled by linear-elastic rebar elements. Composite with a series of different nominal fibre volume fractions are studied. Premature fibre waviness at different magnitude and direction is introduced in the finite element model. Compressive tests on uni-directional CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced plastic) are conducted following the ASTM D6641. By a comparison of 3D FE models and compressive tests, it is clearly shown that the stochastic variation of compressive strength is partly caused by the random fibre packing, and normal or lognormal distribution tends to be a good fit the probabilistic compressive strength. Furthermore, it is also observed that different random fibre packing could trigger two different fibre micro-buckling modes while subjected to longitudinal compression: out-of-plane buckling and twisted buckling. The out-of-plane buckling mode results much larger compressive strength, and this is the major reason why the random fibre packing results a large uncertainty in the FRP compressive strength. This study would contribute to new approaches to the quality control of FRP considering higher compressive strength or lower uncertainty.

Keywords: compressive strength, FRP, micro-buckling, random fibre packing

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Authors: Gabrielle Veloso, Welison Ty

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Trait anxiety is a pervasive tendency to attend to and experience fears and worries to a disproportionate degree, across various situations. This study sought to determine if participants who undergo emotional working memory training will have significantly lower scores on the trait anxiety scales post-intervention. The study also sought to determine if emotional regulation mediated the relationship between working memory training and trait anxiety. Forty-nine participants underwent 20 days of computerized emotional working memory training called Emotional Dual n-back, which involves viewing a continuous stream of emotional content on a grid, and then remembering the location and color of items presented on the grid. Participants of the treatment group had significantly lower trait anxiety compared to controls post-intervention. Mediation analysis determined that working memory training had no significant relationship to anxiety as measured by the Beck’s Anxiety Inventory-Trait (BAIT), but was significantly related to anxiety as measured by form Y2 of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-Y2). Emotion regulation, as measured by the Emotional Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ), was found not to mediate between working memory training and trait anxiety reduction. Results suggest that working memory training may be useful in reducing psychoemotional symptoms rather than somatic symptoms of trait anxiety. Moreover, it proposes for future research to further look into the mediating role of emotion regulation via neuroimaging and the development of more comprehensive measures of emotion regulation.

Keywords: anxiety, emotion regulation, working-memory, working-memory training

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Authors: Ebrahim Sabermaash Eshghi, Donna Sandsmark

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Nowadays, successful companies try to create a reliable and unique competitive position in the market. It is important to consider that only choosing and codifying a competitive strategy appropriate with the market conditions does not have any influence on the final performance of the company by itself, but it is the connection and interaction between upstream level strategies and functional level strategies which leads to development of company performance in its operating environment. Given the importance of the subject, this study tries to investigate effective factors on product performance and prioritize them. This study was done with quantitative-qualitative approach (interview and questionnaire). In sum, 103 informed managers and experts of Pars-Khazar Company were investigated in a census. Validity of measure tools was approved through experts’ judgments. Reliability of the tools was also gained through Cronbach's Alpha Coefficient as 0.930 and in sum, validity and reliability of the tools was approved generally. Analysis of collected data was done through Spearman Correlation Test and Friedman Test using SPSS software. The results showed that management of distribution and demand process (0.675), management of Product Pre-test (0.636) and Manufacturing and inventory management(0.628) had the highest correlation with product performance. Prioritization of factors of structure of launching new products based on the average showed that management of volume of launched products and Manufacturing and inventory management had the most importance.

Keywords: product performance, home appliances, market, case study

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Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

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Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, kl divergence, quickest change detection, time series data

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Authors: Iacopo Carnacina, Mohammad Keshtpoor, Richard Yablonsky

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Non-structural protection measures against flooding are becoming increasingly popular flood risk mitigation strategies. In particular, coastal flood insurance impacts not only private citizens but also insurance and reinsurance companies, who may require it to retain solvency and better understand the risks they face from a catastrophic coastal flood event. In this context, a framework is presented here to assess the risk for coastal flooding across the UK. The area has a long history of catastrophic flood events, including the Great Flood of 1953 and the 2013 Cyclone Xaver storm, both of which led to significant loss of life and property. The current framework will leverage a technology based on a hydrodynamic model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh). This flexible mesh technology, coupled with a calibration technique, allows for better utilisation of computational resources, leading to higher resolution and more detailed results. The generation of a stochastic set of extra tropical cyclone (ETC) events supports the evaluation of the financial losses for the whole area, also accounting for correlations between different locations in different scenarios. Finally, the solution shows a detailed analysis for the Thames River, leveraging the information available on flood barriers and levees. Two realistic disaster scenarios for the Greater London area are simulated: In the first scenario, the storm surge intensity is not high enough to fail London’s flood defences, but in the second scenario, London’s flood defences fail, highlighting the potential losses from a catastrophic coastal flood event.

Keywords: storm surge, stochastic model, levee failure, Thames River

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Authors: Bilal Ahmed, Muhammad Rafiq, Choongjae Im

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The tech-savvy Gen Z's transfer towards interactive concept learning is hammering the demand for online collaborative learning environments, renovating conventional education approaches. The authors propose a novel approach to enhance learning outcomes to improve retention in 3D interactive education by connecting virtual reality (VR) and non-VR devices in the classroom and distance learning. The study evaluates students' experiences with VR interconnectivity devices in human anatomy lectures using real-time 3D interactive data visualization. Utilizing the renowned "Guo & Pooles Inventory" and the "Flow for Presence Questionnaires," it used an experimental research design with a control and experimental group to assess this novel connecting strategy's effectiveness and significant potential for in-person and online educational settings during the sessions. The experimental group's interactions, engagement levels, and usability experiences were assessed using the "Guo & Pooles Inventory" and "Flow for Presence Questionnaires," which measure their sense of presence, engagement, and immersion throughout the learning process using a 5-point Likert scale. At the end of the sessions, we used the "Perceived Usability Scale" to find our proposed system's overall efficiency, effectiveness, and satisfaction. By comparing both groups, the students in the experimental group used the integrated VR environment and VR to non-VR devices, and their sense of presence and attentiveness was significantly improved, allowing for increased engagement by giving students diverse technological access. Furthermore, learners' flow states demonstrated increased absorption and focus levels, improving information retention and Perceived Usability. The findings of this study can help educational institutions optimize their technology-enhanced teaching methods for traditional classroom settings as well as distance-based learning, where building a sense of connection among remote learners is critical. This study will give significant insights into educational technology and its ongoing progress by analyzing engagement, interactivity, usability, satisfaction, and presence.

Keywords: interactive learning environments, human-computer interaction, virtual reality, computer- supported collaborative learning

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Authors: Handan Alan, Ulkü Baykal

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Personal characteristics help people understand and recognize both themselves and other people. They are also known to have direct effects on managerial behaviors. Managers’ personalities indicate how they think, perceive reality and relate to others, and affect their decision-making and problem-solving methods. This descriptive study aims to determine the personal characteristics of nurse managers and the personal and professional factors that affect them since sufficient data does not exist on personal characteristics despite the focus on the leadership and managerial characteristics in nursing. The study population consisted of nurses working in administrative positions at hospitals affiliated with the public hospitals union, research and practice hospitals affiliated with universities and private hospitals in cities in the Marmara Region. The study sample consisted of nurse managers working in the hospitals that permitted conducting the study (excluding private branch hospitals). The data were collected after obtaining the approval of the Clinical Research Ethics Committee of Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University (Approval date: 1.7.2015, Decision No: 2015-01) and written official permissions from the administrations of the hospitals included in the study. The data analysis was carried out using means and standard deviations (SD) as descriptive statistics, one-way analysis of variance for inter-group comparisons and the independent samples t-test for paired group comparisons. A significance threshold of p < 0.05 was used to evaluate the findings. The data were collected using the Five Factor Personality Inventory. The study included 900 nurse managers, who obtained the highest mean score on the conscientiousness dimension (X=4.22 ±0.35). This dimension was followed by their mean scores on the agreeableness (X=4.06±0.40), intelligence (X=4.05±0.37), extroversion (X=3.50±0.43), and emotional instability (X=2.07±0.53) dimensions. Statistically significant differences were found between the independent variables of age, gender, marital status, education level, work institution, professional experience, institutional experience, managerial experience, administrative position, work unit and managerial education when compared using the five factor personality inventory (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the nurse managers described themselves having high conscientiousness. Statistically significant differences were found between the five factor personality inventory mean scores and their personal and professional characteristics.

Keywords: nurse manager, personality, personal characteristics, professional characteristics

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Authors: Munazza A. Mirza, Khawar Khurshid

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Individuals are generally associated with different learning styles, which have been explored extensively in recent past. The learning styles refer to the potential of an individual by which s/he can easily comprehend and retain information. Among various learning style models, VARK is the most accepted model which categorizes the learners with respect to their sensory characteristics. Based on the number of preferred learning modes, the learners can be categorized as uni-modal, bi-modal, tri-modal, or quad/multi-modal. Although there is a prevalent belief in the learning styles, however, the model is not being frequently and effectively utilized in the higher education. This research describes the identification model to validate teacher’s didactic practice and student’s performance linkage with the learning styles. The identification model is recommended to check the effective application and evaluation of the various learning styles. The proposed model is a guideline to effectively implement learning styles inventory in order to ensure that it will validate performance linkage with learning styles. If performance is linked with learning styles, this may help eradicate the distrust on learning style theory. For this purpose, a comprehensive study was conducted to compare and understand how VARK inventory model is being used to identify learning preferences and their correlation with learner’s performance. A comparative analysis of the findings of these studies is presented to understand the learning styles of tertiary students in various disciplines. It is concluded with confidence that the learning styles of students cannot be associated with any specific discipline. Furthermore, there is not enough empirical proof to link performance with learning styles.

Keywords: learning style, VARK, sensory preferences, identification model, didactic practices

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Authors: Hoyoung Lee, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho, R. Eddie Wilson

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This study quantifies a decrement in freeway capacity during rainfall. Traffic and rainfall data were gathered from Highway Agencies and Wunderground weather service. Three inter-urban freeway sections and its nearest weather stations were selected as experimental sites. Capacity analysis found reductions of maximum and mean pre-breakdown flow rates due to rainfall. The Kruskal-Wallis test also provided some evidence to suggest that the variance in the pre-breakdown flow rate is statistically insignificant. Potential application of this study lies in the operation of real time traffic management schemes such as Variable Speed Limits (VSL), Hard Shoulder Running (HSR), and Ramp Metering System (RMS), where speed or flow limits could be set based on a number of factors, including rainfall events and their intensities.

Keywords: capacity randomness, flow breakdown, freeway capacity, rainfall

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Authors: Roya Maqami, Kaveh Qaderi Bagajan, Mohammad Mahdi Yousefi, Saeed Moradi

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficacy of solution-focused group therapy on improving the depressed mothers of child abuser families. This study was carried out in the form of a semi-pilot, pre-test and post-test on two groups (experimental and control). Subjects include all mothers and their children that are the members of Shush and Naser Khosro child home. Beck Depression Inventory and Child Trauma Questionnaire were used to collect data. First, child abuse questionnaire was completed by children, Then Beck Depression Inventory was completed by their mothers that 22 of them were recognized as depressed and randomly divided in two groups of experimental and control. After applying pre-test for both of these groups, the intervention of solution- focused group therapy was performed in five sessions on experimental group. Finally, post-test was applied on both groups and subsequently in a month, follow-up test was performed. T-test, multivariate variance, and repeated measurement analysis of variance were used to analyze the data. According to the findings, it can be concluded that this therapy leads to the improvement of depressed mother's mood. As a result, the intervention of solution-focused group therapy is useful in order to improve the depressing mood of mothers of child abuser families.

Keywords: child abuse, depressed mothers, child abuser families, solution focused group therapy

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Authors: Nafaa Zaafour

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Located at the north eastern of Algeria, the National Park of El-Kala (PNEK) is a set of landscapes whose bioclimatic stages of vegetation extend from sub-humid to humid. In order to know the soil occupation in this complex, an initiated ecological soil cartography using a stratified sampling plan of vegetation had made, the study area occupies two-thirds of the northern National Park of El Kala, it has been divided into 380 plots of 1km2 of which, 76 were the subject of a detailed floristic inventory and sampling of soils. The inventory of vegetation carried out on different sites has allowed identifying several plant groups that share the soil cover with the following distribution: The group of cork oak, this formation occupies the biggest part of the area, it develops mainly on Incepttisols, Alfisols and Mollisols; The group of kermes oak, occupies a large area, it grows on Mollisols and Alfisols; The group of maritime pine, it occupies the same soils as the Kermes Oak; The group of Mirbeck oak, installed on Regosols, it is located in the Eastern part, on the Algerian-Tunisian border; The group of eucalyptus, it grows mainly on Inceptisols, Mollisols of, and Vertisols; The group of wetland, it grows along the banks of lakes and rivers, which primarily develops on Histosols soil Mollisols and Vertisols; The cultures, distributed mainly around the lakes occupy several soil types on Histosols, the Inceptisols, Mollisols of, and Vertisols. This great diversity of vegetation is linked not only to the soil variability but also to climate, hydrological and geological variability.

Keywords: Algeria, cartography, soil, vegetation

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Authors: Arditya Nugraha, Herry Gunawan, Agung P. Widodo

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The various possible strategies to find hydrocarbon are explored within a wide ranging of efforts. It started to identify petroleum concept in the basin. The main objectives of this paper are to integrate and develop information, knowledge, and evaluation from Indonesia’s sedimentary basins system in terms of their suitability for exploration activity and estimate the hydrocarbon potential available. The system which compiled data information and knowledge and comprised exploration and production data of all basins in Indonesia called as Basin Professor which stands for Basin Professional and Processor. Basin Professor is a website application using Geography Information System which consists of all information about basin montage, basin summary, petroleum system, stratigraphy, development play, risk factor, exploration history, working area, regional cross section, well correlation, prospect & lead inventory and infrastructure spatial. From 82 identified sedimentary basins, North Sumatra, Central Sumatra, South Sumatera, East Java, Kutai, and Tarakan basins are respectively positioned of the Indonesia’ s mature basin and the most productive basin. The Eastern of Indonesia also have many hydrocarbon potential and discovered several fields in Papua and East Abadi. Basin Professor compiled the well data in all of the basin in Indonesia from mature basin to frontier basin. Well known geological data, subsurface mapping, prospect and lead, resources and established infrastructures are the main factors make these basins have higher suitability beside another potential basin. The hydrocarbon potential resulted from this paper based on the degree of geological data, petroleum, and economic evaluation. Basin Professor has provided by a calculator tool in lead and prospect for estimate the hydrocarbon reserves, recoverable in place and geological risk. Furthermore, the calculator also defines the preliminary economic evaluation such as investment, POT IRR and infrastructures in each basin. From this Basin Professor, petroleum companies are able to estimate that Indonesia has a huge potential of hydrocarbon oil and gas reservoirs and still interesting for hydrocarbon exploration and production activity.

Keywords: basin summary, petroleum system, resources, economic evaluation

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Authors: Hidefumi Kawakatsu, Dong Li, Kosuke Kato

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In Japan, meat-type chickens are mainly classified into three categories: (1) Broilers, (2) Branded chickens, and (3) Jidori (Free-range local traditional pedigree chickens). The Jidori chickens are certified by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, whilst, for the Branded chickens, there is no regulation with respect to their breed (genotype) or methods for rearing them. It is, therefore, relatively easy for poultry farmers to introduce Branded than Jidori chickens. The Branded chickens are normally fed a low-calorie diet with ingredients such as herbs, which lengthens their breeding period (compared with that of the Broilers) and increases their market value. In the field of inventory management, fast-growing animals such as broilers are categorised as ameliorating items. To the best of our knowledge, there are no previous studies that have explicitly considered smaller sized poultry farmers with limited breeding areas. This study develops an inventory model for a small sized poultry farmer that produces both the Broilers (Product 1) and the Branded chickens (Product 2) with different amelioration rates. The poultry farmer’s total profit per unit of time is formulated as a function of selling prices by using a price-dependent demand function. The existence of a unique optimal selling price for each product, which maximises the total profit, established. It has also been confirmed through numerical examples that, when the breeding area is fixed, the total profit could increase if the poultry farmer reduced the product quantity of Product 1 to introduce Product 2.

Keywords: amelioration, deterioration, small sized poultry farmers, optimal price

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Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

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A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: Samira Mohabbatdar, Abbas Ahmadi, Mohsen S. Sajadieh

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This paper deals with a two-level supply chain consisted of one manufacturer and one retailer for single-type product. The demand function of the customers depends on price. We consider an integrated production inventory system where the manufacturer processes raw materials in order to deliver finished product with imperfect quality to the retailer. Then retailer inspects the products and after that delivers perfect products to customers. The proposed model is based on the joint total profit of both the manufacturer and the retailer, and it determines the optimal ordering lot-size, number of shipment and selling price of the retailer. A numerical example is provided to analyse and illustrate the behaviour and application of the model. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the key parameters are presented to test feasibility of the model.

Keywords: supply chain, pricing policy, defective quality, joint economic lot sizing

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Authors: Salem Ben Said

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In recent times the decimal number system to which we are accustomed has received serious competition from the binary number system. In this note, an approach is suggested to teaching and learning the binary number system using examples from the real world. More precisely, we will demonstrate the utility of the binary system in describing the optimal strategy to win the Chinese Nim game, and in telegraphy by decoding the hidden message on Perseverance’s Mars parachute written in the language of binary system. Finally, we will answer the question, “why do modern computers prefer the ternary number system instead of the binary system?”. All materials are provided in a format that is conductive to classroom presentation and discussion.

Keywords: binary number system, Nim game, telegraphy, computers prefer the ternary system

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Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

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This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges

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Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn

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A precise localization system is crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. The most common method for providing continuous positioning services in outdoor environments is by using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Due to nonline-of-sight, multipath, and weather conditions, GNSS systems do not perform well in dense urban, urban, and suburban areas.This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. It also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 0.39 m, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 0.82 m. According to numerical results, SRCLoc improves positioning performance and reduces radio map construction costs significantly compared to traditional methods.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Jessemyn Modiini, Timothy Lynar, Elena Sitnikova

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We present a novel enhanced compartmental model for malware spread analysis in cyber security. This paper applies cyber security data features to epidemiological compartmental models to model the infectious potential of malware. Compartmental models are most efficient for calculating the infectious potential of a disease. In this paper, we discuss and profile epidemiologically relevant data features from a Domain Name System (DNS) dataset. We then apply these features to epidemiological compartmental models to network traffic features. This paper demonstrates how epidemiological principles can be applied to the novel analysis of key cybersecurity behaviours and trends and provides insight into threat modelling above that of kill-chain analysis. In applying deterministic compartmental models to a cyber security use case, the authors analyse the deficiencies and provide an enhanced stochastic model for cyber epidemiology. This enhanced compartmental model (SUEICRN model) is contrasted with the traditional SEIR model to demonstrate its efficacy.

Keywords: cybersecurity, epidemiology, cyber epidemiology, malware

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Authors: Xueming Xu, Jiahao Liu, Jichao Li, Kewei Yang, Minghao Li, Bingfeng Ge

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A combat system-of-systems (CSoS) comprises various types of functional combat entities that interact to meet corresponding task requirements in the present and future. Enhancing the resilience of CSoS holds significant military value in optimizing the operational planning process, improving military survivability, and ensuring the successful completion of operational tasks. Accordingly, this research proposes an integrated framework called CSoS resilience enhancement (CSoSRE) to enhance the resilience of CSoS from a recovery perspective. Specifically, this research presents a two-phase resilience optimization model to define a resilience optimization objective for CSoS. This model considers not only task baseline, recovery cost, and recovery time limit but also the characteristics of emergency recovery and comprehensive recovery. Moreover, the research extends it from the deterministic case to the stochastic case to describe the uncertainty in the recovery process. Based on this, a resilience-oriented recovery optimization method based on deep reinforcement learning (RRODRL) is proposed to determine a set of entities requiring restoration and their recovery sequence, thereby enhancing the resilience of CSoS. This method improves the deep Q-learning algorithm by designing a discount factor that adapts to changes in CSoS state at different phases, simultaneously considering the network’s structural and functional characteristics within CSoS. Finally, extensive experiments are conducted to test the feasibility, effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework. The obtained results offer useful insights for guiding operational recovery activity and designing a more resilient CSoS.

Keywords: combat system-of-systems, resilience optimization model, recovery optimization method, deep reinforcement learning, certainty and uncertainty

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Authors: S. Rozhkova, O. Rozhkova, A. Harlova, V. Lasukov

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For optimal unbiased filter as mean-square and in the case of functioning anomalous noises in the observation memory channel, we have proved insensitivity of filter to inaccurate knowledge of the anomalous noise intensity matrix and its equivalence to truncated filter plotted only by non anomalous components of an observation vector.

Keywords: mathematical expectation, filtration, anomalous noise, memory

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Authors: Olga Biedova, Victoria Steblovskaya, Kai Wallbaum

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In the current capital market environment, investors constantly face the challenge of finding a successful and stable investment mechanism. Highly volatile equity markets and extremely low bond returns bring about the demand for sophisticated yet reliable risk management strategies. Investors are looking for risk management solutions to efficiently protect their investments. This study compares a classic Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategy to a Volatility Target portfolio insurance (VTPI). VTPI is an extension of the well-known Option Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) to the case where an embedded option is linked not to a pure risky asset such as e.g., S&P 500, but to a Volatility Target (VolTarget) portfolio. VolTarget strategy is a recently emerged rule-based dynamic asset allocation mechanism where the portfolio’s volatility is kept under control. As a result, a typical VTPI strategy allows higher participation rates in the market due to reduced embedded option prices. In addition, controlled volatility levels eliminate the volatility spread in option pricing, one of the frequently cited reasons for OBPI strategy fall behind CPPI. The strategies are compared within the framework of the stochastic dominance theory based on numerical simulations, rather than on the restrictive assumption of the Black-Scholes type dynamics of the underlying asset. An extended comparative quantitative analysis of performances of the above investment strategies in various market scenarios and within a range of input parameter values is presented.

Keywords: CPPI, portfolio insurance, stochastic dominance, volatility target

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Authors: Ibrahim Auwal

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This study focuses on senior secondary education towards the development of younger generation in general terms, and specifically for the enhancement of senior secondary school principals. Investigation was made to correlate between principals’ application of basic principles of educational administration and principals’ productivity in senior secondary schools in Kano State. The instrument used to collect relevant data was self designed Observation Inventory for School Principals (OISP). The observation inventory items were scrutinized by experts from the School of Education Federal College of Education Kano to ascertain the contents validity, and the reliability coefficient was 0.83. Using purposive sampling technique, 30 schools were chosen from 85 senior secondary schools in Kano state and 30 principals were deliberately sampled due to their small number. Pearson Product Moment Correlation (r) Coefficient was used to test the hypothesis generated for the study. The results of the analysis showed that principals’ application of basic principles of educational administration was significantly correlated with principals’ productivity and it promote the performance of the students. Based on the findings, it was recommended that, government should in as much as possible encourage school principals to obtain degrees in relevant and specialized areas in education specifically educational administration and planning so as to get all the necessary knowledge and skills of leader ship procedures that will definitely promote teachers morale, improve students’ academic performance and enhances principals’ productivity in senior secondary schools in Kano State.

Keywords: principles of educational administration, principals of senior secondary schools, Kano, educational sciences

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Authors: Hossein Shareh, Farhad Seifi

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The present study was to examine the role of attachment styles, gender schemas, sexual-self schemas, and body image during sexual activity in sexual function, marital satisfaction, and sexual self-esteem. The sampling method was among married women who were living in Mashhad; a snowball selected 765 people. Questionnaires and measures of adult attachment style (AAS), Bem Sex Role Inventory (BSRI), sexual self-schema (SSS), body exposure during sexual activity questionnaire (BESAQ), sexual function female inventory (FSFI), a short form of sexual self-esteem (SSEI-W-SF) and marital satisfaction (Enrich) were completed by participants. Data analysis using Pearson correlation and hierarchical regression and case analysis was performed by SPSS-19 software. The results showed that there is a significant correlation (P <0.05) between attachment and sexual function (r=0.342), marital satisfaction (r=0.351) and sexual self-esteem (r =0.292). A correlation (P <0.05) was observed between sexual schema (r=0.342) and sexual esteem (r=0.31). A meaningful correlation (P <0.05) exists between gender stereotypes and sexual function (r=0.352). There was a significant inverse correlation (P <0.05) between body image and their performance during sexual activity (r=0.41). There is no significant relationship between gender schemas, sexual schemas, body image, and marital satisfaction, and no relation was found between gender schemas, body image, and sexual self-esteem. Also, the result of the regression showed that attachment styles, gender schemas, sexual self- schemas, and body exposures during sexual activity are predictable in sexual function, and marital satisfaction can be predicted by attachment style and gender schema. Somewhat, sexual self-esteem can be expected by attachment style and gender schemas.

Keywords: attachment styles, gender and sexual schemas, body image, sexual function, marital satisfaction, sexual self-esteem

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Authors: Harpa Ragnarsdóttir, Magnús Kjartan Gíslason, Kristín Briem, Guðný Lilja Oddsdóttir

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Introduction: Whiplash-Associated Disorder (WAD) is a health problem characterized by motor, neurological and psychosocial symptoms, stressing the need for a multimodal treatment approach. To achieve individualized multimodal approach, prognostic factors need to be identified early using validated patient-reported and objective outcome measures. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the degree of association between patient-reported and clinical outcome measures of WAD patients in the subacute phase. Methods: Individuals (n=41) with subacute (≥1, ≤3 months) WAD (I-II), medium to high-risk symptoms, or neck pain rating ≥ 4/10 on the Visual Analog Scale (VAS) were examined. Outcome measures included measurements for movement control (Butterfly test) and cervical active range of motion (cAROM) using the NeckSmart system, a computer system using an inertial measurement unit (IMU) that connects to a computer. The IMU sensor is placed on the participant’s head, who receives visual feedback about the movement of the head. Patient-reported neck disability, pain intensity, general health, self-perceived handicap, central sensitization, and difficulties due to dizziness were measured using questionnaires. Excel and R statistical software were used for statistical analyses. Results: Forty-one participants, 15 males (37%), 26 females (63%), mean (SD) age 36.8 (±12.7), underwent data collection. Mean amplitude accuracy (AA) (SD) in the Butterfly test for easy, medium, and difficult paths were 2.4mm (0.9), 4.4mm (1.8), and 6.8mm (2.7), respectively. Mean cAROM (SD) for flexion, extension, left-, and right rotation were 46.3° (18.5), 48.8° (17.8), 58.2° (14.3), and 58.9° (15.0), respectively. Mean scores on the Neck Disability Index (NDI), VAS, Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI), and 36-Item Short Form Survey RAND version (RAND) were 43% (17.4), 7 (1.7), 37 (25.4), 51 (17.5), and 39.2 (17.7) respectively. Females showed significantly greater deviation for AA compared to males for easy and medium Butterfly paths (p<0.05). Statistically significant moderate to strong positive correlation was found between the DHI and easy (r=0.6, p=0.05), medium (r=0.5, p=0.05)) and difficult (r=0.5, p<0.05) Butterfly paths, between the total RAND score and all cAROMs (r between 0.4-0.7, p≤0.05) except flexion (r=0.4, p=0.7), and between the NDI score and CSI (r=0.7, p<0.01), VAS (r=0.5, p<0.01), and DHI (r=0.7, p<0.01) scores respectively. Discussion: All patient-reported and objective measures were found to be outside the reference range. Results suggest females have worse movement control in the neck in the subacute WAD phase. However, no statistical difference based on gender was found in patient-reported measures. Suggesting females might have worse movement control than males in general in this phase. The correlation found between DHI and the Butterfly test can be explained because the DHI measures proprioceptive symptoms like dizziness and eye movement disorders that can affect the outcome of movement control tests. A correlation was found between the total RAND score and cAROM, suggesting that a reduced range of motion affects the quality of life. Significance: The NeckSmart system can detect abnormalities in cAROM, fine movement control, and kinesthesia of the neck. Results suggest females have worse movement control than males. Results show a moderate to a high correlation between several patient-reported and objective measurements.

Keywords: whiplash associated disorders, car-collision, neck, trauma, subacute

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Authors: V. Jagadeesh, K. Venkata Subbaiah, P. Govinda Rao

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This paper explaining about the significance of information technology tools and software packages in supply chain management (SCM) in order to manage the entire supply chain. Managing materials flow and financial flow and information flow effectively and efficiently with the aid of information technology tools and packages in order to deliver right quantity with right quality of goods at right time by using right methods and technology. Information technology plays a vital role in streamlining the sales forecasting and demand planning and Inventory control and transportation in supply networks and finally deals with production planning and scheduling. It achieves the objectives by streamlining the business process and integrates within the enterprise and its extended enterprise. SCM starts with customer and it involves sequence of activities from customer, retailer, distributor, manufacturer and supplier within the supply chain framework. It is the process of integrating demand planning and supply network planning and production planning and control. Forecasting indicates the direction for planning raw materials in order to meet the production planning requirements. Inventory control and transportation planning allocate the optimal or economic order quantity by utilizing shortest possible routes to deliver the goods to the customer. Production planning and control utilize the optimal resources mix in order to meet the capacity requirement planning. The above operations can be achieved by using appropriate information technology tools and software packages for the supply chain management.

Keywords: supply chain management, information technology, business process, extended enterprise

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Authors: Yohtahe Woldegerima Berhe, Tadesse Belayneh Melkie, Girmay Fitiwi Lema, Marye Getnet, Wubie Birlie Chekol

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Introduction: Anxiety was repeatedly reported as the worst aspect of the perioperative time. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of preoperative anxiety among adult surgical patients at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital (UoGCSH), Northwest Ethiopia. Methodology: Hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted among surgical patients at the university hospital. After obtaining ethical approval, 407 surgical patients were approached during the preoperative period. Preoperative anxiety was assessed by the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. The association between variables was determined by using binary logistic regression analysis. The strength of association was described in adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and a p-value < 0.05 at a 95% confidence interval which was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 400 patients were included in this study, with a 98.3% response rate. Preoperative anxiety was observed among 237 (59.3%) patients, and the median (IQR) STAI score was 50 (40 – 56.7). age ≥ 60 years (AOR: 5.7, CI: 1.6 – 20.4, P: 0.007), emergency surgery (AOR: 2.5, CI: 1.3 – 4.7, P: 0.005), preoperative pain (AOR: 2.6, CI: 1.2 – 5.4, P: 0.005), and rural residency (AOR: 1.8, CI: 1.1 – 2.9, P: 0.031) were found significantly associated with preoperative anxiety. Conclusions: The prevalence of preoperative anxiety among surgical patients was high. Older age (≥ 60 years), emergency surgery, preoperative pain, and rural residency were found to be significantly associated with preoperative anxiety. Assessment for preoperative anxiety should be a routine component of preoperative assessment of both elective and emergency surgical patients. Preoperative pain should be appropriately managed as it can help to reduce preoperative anxiety. Optimal anxiety reduction methods should be investigated and implemented in the hospital.

Keywords: preoperative anxiety, anxiety, anxiety of anesthesia and surgery, state-trait anxiety inventory, preoperative care

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Authors: Aawag Mohsen Al-Awag, Wesam Salah Alaloul, M. S. Liew

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Industrialized building system (IBS) is a method of construction with concentrated practices consisting of techniques, products, and a set of linked elements which operate collectively to accomplish objectives. The Industrialised Building System (IBS) has been recognised as a viable method for improving overall construction performance in terms of quality, cost, safety and health, waste reduction, and productivity. The Malaysian construction industry is considered one of the contributors to the development of the country. The acceptance level of IBS is still below government expectations. Thus, the Malaysian government has been continuously encouraging the industry to use and implement IBS. Conventional systems have several drawbacks, including project delays, low economic efficiency, excess inventory, and poor product quality. When it comes to implementing IBS, construction companies still face several obstacles and problems, notably in terms of contractual and procurement concerns, which leads to the low adoption of IBS in Malaysia. There are barriers to the acceptance of IBS technology, focused on awareness of historical failure and risks connected to IBS practices to provide enhanced performance. Therefore, the transformation from the existing conventional building systems to the industrialized building systems (IBS) is needed more than ever. The flexibility of IBS in Malaysia’s construction industry is very low due to numerous shortcomings and obstacles. Due to its environmental, economic, and social benefits, IBS could play a significant role in the Malaysian construction industry in the future. This paper concentrates on the potential role of IBS in sustainable construction practices in Malaysia. It also highlights the awareness, barriers, advantages, and disadvantages of IBS in the construction sector. The study concludes with recommendations for Malaysian construction stakeholders to encourage and increase the utilization of industrialised building systems.

Keywords: construction industry, industrialized building system, barriers, advantages and disadvantages, construction, sustainability, Malaysia

Procedia PDF Downloads 103