Search results for: multifractal time series analysis

Authors: Pramod Keshav Kolase, Atul K. Desai

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This paper presents the experimental investigation results of Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity (UPV) tests conducted on roller compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) material containing Class F fly ash of as mineral admixture and triangular polyester fiber as a secondary reinforcement. The each mix design series fly ash content is varied from 0% to 45 % and triangular polyester fiber 0% to 0.75% by volume fraction. In each series and for different ages of curing (i.e. 7, 28 and 90 days) forty-eight cube specimens are cast and tested for compressive strength and UPV. The UPV of fly ash was found to be lower for all mixtures at 7 days in comparison with control mix concrete. But at 28, 56 days and 90 days the UPV were significantly improved for all the mixes. Relationships between compressive strength of RCCP and UPV and Dynamic Elastic Modulus are proposed for all series mixes.

Keywords: compressive strength, dynamic elastic modulus, fly ash, fiber, roller compacted concrete, ultrasonic pulse velocity

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Authors: Tauha Hussain Ali, Shabir Hussain Khahro, Nafees Ahmed Memon

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Accurate prediction of project time for planning and bid preparation stage should contain realistic dates. Constructors use their experience to estimate the project duration for the new projects, which is based on intuitions. It has been a constant concern to both researchers and constructors to analyze the accurate prediction of project duration for bid preparation stage. In Pakistan, such study for time cost relationship has been lacked to predict duration performance for the construction projects. This study is an attempt to explore the time cost relationship that would conclude with a mathematical model to predict the time for the drainage rehabilitation projects in the province of Sindh, Pakistan. The data has been collected from National Engineering Services (NESPAK), Pakistan and regression analysis has been carried out for the analysis of results. Significant relationship has been found between time and cost of the construction projects in Sindh and the generated mathematical model can be used by the constructors to predict the project duration for the upcoming projects of same nature. This study also provides the professionals with a requisite knowledge to make decisions regarding project duration, which is significantly important to win the projects at the bid stage.

Keywords: BTC Model, project time, relationship of time cost, regression

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Authors: Bulcha Belay Etana, Benny Malengier, Debelo Oljira, Janarthanan Krishnamoorthy, Lieva Vanlangenhove

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Electromyography (EMG) is a technique used to measure the electrical activity of muscles. EMG can be used to assess muscle function in a variety of settings, including clinical, research, and sports medicine. The aim of this study was to develop a wearable textile sensor for EMG monitoring. The sensor was designed to be soft, stretchable, and washable, making it suitable for long-term use. The sensor was fabricated using a conductive thread material that was embroidered onto a fabric substrate. The sensor was then connected to a microcontroller unit (MCU) and a Wi-Fi-enabled module. The MCU was programmed to acquire the EMG signal and transmit it wirelessly to the Wi-Fi-enabled module. The Wi-Fi-enabled module then sent the signal to a server, where it could be accessed by a computer or smartphone. The sensor was able to successfully acquire and transmit EMG signals from a variety of muscles. The signal quality was comparable to that of commercial EMG sensors. The development of this sensor has the potential to improve the way EMG is used in a variety of settings. The sensor is soft, stretchable, and washable, making it suitable for long-term use. This makes it ideal for use in clinical settings, where patients may need to wear the sensor for extended periods of time. The sensor is also small and lightweight, making it ideal for use in sports medicine and research settings. The data for this study was collected from a group of healthy volunteers. The volunteers were asked to perform a series of muscle contractions while the EMG signal was recorded. The data was then analyzed to assess the performance of the sensor. The EMG signals were analyzed using a variety of methods, including time-domain analysis and frequency-domain analysis. The time-domain analysis was used to extract features such as the root mean square (RMS) and average rectified value (ARV). The frequency-domain analysis was used to extract features such as the power spectrum. The question addressed by this study was whether a wearable textile sensor could be developed that is soft, stretchable, and washable and that can successfully acquire and transmit EMG signals. The results of this study demonstrate that a wearable textile sensor can be developed that meets the requirements of being soft, stretchable, washable, and capable of acquiring and transmitting EMG signals. This sensor has the potential to improve the way EMG is used in a variety of settings.

Keywords: EMG, electrode position, smart wearable, textile sensor, IoT, IoT-integrated textile sensor

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Authors: Muhammad Farhan Ul Moazzam, Tamkeen Urooj Paracha, Ghani Rahman, Byung Gul Lee, Nasir Farid, Adnan Arshad

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The novel coronavirus pandemic disease (COVID-19) affected the whole globe, though there is a lack of clinical studies and its epidemiological features. But as per the observation, it has been seen that most of the COVID-19 infected patients show mild to moderate symptoms, and they get better without any medical assistance due to a better immune system to generate antibodies against the novel coronavirus. In this study, the active cases, serious cases, recovered cases, deaths and total confirmed cases had been analyzed using the geospatial inverse distance weightage technique (IDW) within the time span of 2nd March to 3rd June 2020. As of 3rd June, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Italy were 231,238, total deaths 33,310, serious cases 350, recovered cases 158,951, and active cases were 39,177, which has been reported by the Ministry of Health, Italy. March 2nd-June 3rd, 2020 a sum of 231,238 cases has been reported in Italy out of which 38.68% cases reported in the Lombardia region with a death rate of 18%, which is high from its national mortality rate followed by Emilia-Romagna (14.89% deaths), Piemonte (12.68% deaths), and Vento (10% deaths). As per the total cases in the region, the highest number of recoveries has been observed in Umbria (92.52%), followed by Basilicata (87%), Valle d'Aosta (86.85%), and Trento (84.54%). The COVID-19 evolution in Italy has been particularly found in the major urban area, i.e., Rome, Milan, Naples, Bologna, and Florence. Geospatial technology played a vital role in this pandemic by tracking infected patient, active cases, and recovered cases. Geospatial techniques are very important in terms of monitoring and planning to control the pandemic spread in the country.

Keywords: COVID-19, public health, geospatial analysis, IDW, Italy

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Authors: Malaw Ndiaye, Karim Konate

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Smart contracts are computer protocols that facilitate, verify, and execute the negotiation or execution of a contract, or that render a contractual term unnecessary. Blockchain and smart contracts can be used to facilitate almost any financial transaction. Thanks to these smart contracts, the settlement of dividends and coupons could be automated. Smart contracts have become lucrative and profitable targets for attackers because they can hold a great amount of money. Smart contracts, although widely used in blockchain technology, are far from perfect due to security concerns. Since there are recent studies on smart contract security, none of them systematically study the strengths and weaknesses of smart contract security. Some have focused on an analysis of program-related vulnerabilities by providing a taxonomy of vulnerabilities. Other studies are responsible for listing the series of attacks linked to smart contracts. Although a series of attacks are listed, there is a lack of discussions and proposals on improving security. This survey takes stock of smart contract security from a more comprehensive perspective by correlating the level of vulnerability and systematic review of security levels in smart contracts.

Keywords: blockchain, Bitcoin, smart contract, criminal smart contract, security

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Authors: Andreea Halunga, Chris D. Orme, Takashi Yamagata

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This paper proposes a heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test of the null hypothesis of zero cross-section (or contemporaneous) correlation in linear panel-data models, without necessarily assuming independence of the cross-sections. The procedure allows for either fixed, strictly exogenous and/or lagged dependent regressor variables, as well as quite general forms of both non-normality and heteroskedasticity in the error distribution. The asymptotic validity of the test procedure is predicated on the number of time series observations, T, being large relative to the number of cross-section units, N, in that: (i) either N is fixed as T→∞; or, (ii) N²/T→0, as both T and N diverge, jointly, to infinity. Given this, it is not expected that asymptotic theory would provide an adequate guide to finite sample performance when T/N is "small". Because of this, we also propose and establish asymptotic validity of, a number of wild bootstrap schemes designed to provide improved inference when T/N is small. Across a variety of experimental designs, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the predictions from asymptotic theory do, in fact, provide a good guide to the finite sample behaviour of the test when T is large relative to N. However, when T and N are of similar orders of magnitude, discrepancies between the nominal and empirical significance levels occur as predicted by the first-order asymptotic analysis. On the other hand, for all the experimental designs, the proposed wild bootstrap approximations do improve agreement between nominal and empirical significance levels, when T/N is small, with a recursive-design wild bootstrap scheme performing best, in general, and providing quite close agreement between the nominal and empirical significance levels of the test even when T and N are of similar size. Moreover, in comparison with the wild bootstrap "version" of the original Breusch-Pagan test our experiments indicate that the corresponding version of the heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test appears reliable. As an illustration, the proposed tests are applied to a dynamic growth model for a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Keywords: cross-section correlation, time-series heteroskedasticity, dynamic panel data, heteroskedasticity robust Breusch-Pagan test

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Authors: Abdullah Al Faruque, Ram Balachandar

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Series of laboratory tests were carried out to study the extent of scour caused by a three-dimensional wall jets exiting from a square cross-section nozzle and into a non-cohesive sand beds. Previous observations have indicated that the effect of the tailwater depth was significant for densimetric Froude number greater than ten. However, the present results indicate that the cut off value could be lower depending on the value of grain size-to-nozzle width ratio. Numbers of equations are drawn out for a better scaling of numerous scour parameters. Also suggested the empirical prediction of scour to predict the scour centre line profile and plan view of scour profile at any particular time.

Keywords: densimetric froude number, jets, nozzle, sand, scour, tailwater, time

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Authors: M. Yousefi, N. Nasirzadeh

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In this paper, behavior of an oscillator under injection of another signal has been investigated. Also, variation of output signal amplitude versus injected signal phase variation, the effect of varying the amplitude of injected signal and quality factor of the oscillator has been investigated. The results show that the locking time depends on phase and the best locking time happens at 180-degrees phase. Also, the effect of injected lock has been discussed. Simulations show that the locking time decreases with signal injection to bulk. Locking time has been investigated versus various phase differences. The effect of phase and amplitude changes on locking time of a typical LC oscillator in 180 nm technology has been investigated.

Keywords: analysis, oscillator, injection-lock oscillator, phase modulation

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Authors: Liudmila Shabalinskaya, Victor Golovanov, Liudmila Milinis, Sergey Loponos, Alexander Maslov, D. O. Frolov

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The work is devoted to the rapid laboratory diagnosis of the condition of aircraft friction units, based on the application of the nondestructive testing method by analyzing the parameters of wear particles, or tribodiagnostics. The most important task of tribodiagnostics is to develop recommendations for the selection of more advanced designs, materials and lubricants based on data on wear processes for increasing the life and ensuring the safety of the operation of machines and mechanisms. The object of tribodiagnostics in this work are the tooth gears of the central drive and the gearboxes of the gas turbine engine of the civil aviation PS-90A type, in which rolling friction and sliding friction with slip occur. The main criterion for evaluating the technical state of lubricated friction units of a gas turbine engine is the intensity and rate of wear of the friction surfaces of the friction unit parts. When the engine is running, oil samples are taken and the state of the friction surfaces is evaluated according to the parameters of the wear particles contained in the oil sample, which carry important and detailed information about the wear processes in the engine transmission units. The parameters carrying this information include the concentration of wear particles and metals in the oil, the dispersion composition, the shape, the size ratio and the number of particles, the state of their surfaces, the presence in the oil of various mechanical impurities of non-metallic origin. Such a morphological analysis of wear particles has been introduced into the order of monitoring the status and diagnostics of various aircraft engines, including a gas turbine engine, since the type of wear characteristic of the central drive and the drive box is surface fatigue wear and the beginning of its development, accompanied by the formation of microcracks, leads to the formation of spherical, up to 10 μm in size, and in the aftermath of flocculent particles measuring 20-200 μm in size. Tribodiagnostics using the morphological analysis of wear particles includes the following techniques: ferrography, filtering, and computer analysis of the classification and counting of wear particles. Based on the analysis of several series of oil samples taken from the drive box of the engine during their operating time, a study was carried out of the processes of wear kinetics. Based on the results of the study and comparing the series of criteria for tribodiagnostics, wear state ratings and statistics of the results of morphological analysis, norms for the normal operating regime were developed. The study allowed to develop levels of wear state for friction surfaces of gearing and a 10-point rating system for estimating the likelihood of the occurrence of an increased wear mode and, accordingly, prevention of engine failures in flight.

Keywords: aviation, box of drives, morphological analysis, tribodiagnostics, tribology, ferrography, filtering, wear particle

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Authors: Devyani D. Samarth, Sachin V. Bakre, Ratnesh Kumar

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This work deals with two buildings adjacent to each other connected with dampers. The “Imperial Valley Earthquake - El Centro", "May 18, 1940 earthquake time history is used for dynamic analysis of the system in the time domain. The effectiveness of fluid joint dampers is then investigated in terms of the reduction of displacement, acceleration and base shear responses of adjacent buildings. Finally, an extensive parametric study is carried out to find optimum damper properties like stiffness (Kd) and damping coefficient (Cd) for adjacent buildings. Results show that using fluid dampers to connect the adjacent buildings of different fundamental frequencies can effectively reduce earthquake-induced responses of either building if damper optimum properties are selected.

Keywords: energy dissipation devices, time history analysis, viscous damper, optimum parameters

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Authors: Naik Muhammad, Zahid Ullah, Dong-Ho Choi

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Submerged floating tunnel (SFT) is a new solution for the transportation infrastructure through sea straits, fjords, and inland waters, and can be a good alternative to long span suspension bridges. SFT is a massive cylindrical structure that floats at a certain depth below the water surface and subjected to extreme environmental conditions. The identification of dominant structural response of SFT becomes more important due to intended environmental conditions for the design of SFT. The time domain dynamic problem of SFT moored by vertical and inclined mooring cables/anchors is formulated. The dynamic time history analysis of SFT subjected to hydrodynamic and seismic excitations is performed. The SFT is modeled by finite element 3D beam, and the mooring cables are modeled by truss elements. Based on the dynamic time history analysis the displacements and internal forces of SFT were calculated. The response of SFT is presented for hydrodynamic and seismic excitations. The transverse internal forces of SFT were the maximum compared to vertical direction, for both hydrodynamic and seismic cases; this indicates that the cable system provides very small stiffness in transverse direction as compared to vertical direction of SFT.

Keywords: submerged floating tunnel, hydrodynamic analysis, time history analysis, seismic response

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Authors: Emily Hamilton, Adiel Kahana, Ron Hauser, Shimi Barda

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BACKGROUND: In the male fertility and sperm bank unit of Tel Aviv Sourasky medical center, women are treated with intrauterine insemination (IUI) using washed sperm from their partner or thawed sperm from a selected donor. In most cases, the women perform the IUI treatment in Sourasky, but sometimes they ask to undergo the insemination procedure in another clinic with their own fertility doctor. In these cases, the sperm sample is prepared at the Sourasky lab and the patient is inseminated after arriving to her doctor. Our laboratory has previously found that time negatively affects several parameters of thawed sperm, and we estimate that it has more severe and significant effect than on washed sperm. AIM: To examine the effect of time on the quality of washed sperm versus thawed sperm. METHODS: Sperm samples were collected from men referred for semen analysis. Each ejaculate was allowed to liquefy for at least 20 min at 37°C and analyzed for sperm motility and vitality percentage and DNA fragmentation index (Time 0). Subsequently, 1ml of the sample was divided into two parts, 1st part was washed only and the 2nd part was washed, frozen and thawed. Time 1 analysis occurred immediately after sperm washing or thawing. Time 2 analysis occurred 75 minutes after time 1. Statistical analysis was performed using Student t-test. P values<0.05 were considered significant. RESULTS: Preliminary data showed that time had a greater impact on the average percentages of sperm motility and vitality in thawed compared to washed sperm samples (26%±10% vs. 21%±10% and 21%±9% vs. 9%±10%, respectively). An additional trend towards increased average DNA fragmentation percentage in thawed samples compared to washed samples was observed (46%±18% vs. 25%±24%). CONCLUSION: Time negatively effects sperm quality. The effect is greater in thawed samples compared to fresh samples.

Keywords: ART, male fertility, sperm cryopreservation, sperm quality

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: P. V. S. Mascarenhas, B. C. P. Albuquerque, D. J. F. Campos, L. L. Almeida, V. R. Domingues, L. C. S. M. Ozelim

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Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

Keywords: economical analysis, probability of failure, retaining walls, statistical analysis

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Authors: Jelena Popović, Andrijana Mićanović

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Officially, 60% of Montenegrin territory is covered in forests, but they are continually being destroyed by illegal cutting, concession politics and wildfires. Montenegrin Ecologists Society started the first dendrochronology lab in Montenegro, and data collection began in the Summer of 2021. The cores were taken from 3 localities around the peak Lisac on the mt. Prekornica, where biggest P.heldreichii forests existed until recent huge wildfires. This research is the first step towards comprehensive dendrochronology research in Montenegro. It will show how old certain forest stands of Pinus heldreichii on mountain Prekornica are, that were not destroyed in huge wildfires from the recent years. It will also show how do they correlate between each other. Per locality 15 trees were sampled. Electric sanders (150 - 2000) were used for preparation. Cores were scanned, then measured in CooRecorder. Analysis is done in Cofecha. Process will be repeated with Lintab 6 and TSAP (Time Series Analysis and Presentation for Dendrochronology and Related Applications) - Win Scientific software by Rinntech. Since this is the first dendrochronology research entirely done in Montenegro it is a foundation for the dendroclimatology research. Besides, it’ll contribute to the understanding of the life of these forests in this part of its areal, and in designing good management practices.

Keywords: dendrochronology, bosnian pine, pinus heldreichii, montenegro, forests

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Authors: L. Q. Yuan, J. Yang, A. Siddiqui

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A new regression uncertainty analysis methodology was applied to determine the uncertainties of the critical heat flux (CHF) power correlation for an advanced 43-element bundle design, which was developed by Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to achieve improved economics, resource utilization and energy sustainability. The new methodology is considered more appropriate than the traditional methodology in the assessment of the experimental uncertainty associated with regressions. The methodology was first assessed using both the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) and the Taylor Series Method (TSM) for a simple linear regression model, and then extended successfully to a non-linear CHF power regression model (CHF power as a function of inlet temperature, outlet pressure and mass flow rate). The regression uncertainty assessed by MCM agrees well with that by TSM. An equation to evaluate the CHF power regression uncertainty was developed and expressed as a function of independent variables that determine the CHF power.

Keywords: CHF experiment, CHF correlation, regression uncertainty, Monte Carlo Method, Taylor Series Method

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Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

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In recent years, pollutions of the environment by toxic substances become a serious problem. While there are many methods of environmental clean-up, the methods by microorganisms are considered to be reasonable and safety for environment. Compost is known that it catabolize the meladorous substancess in its production process, however the mechanism of its catabolizing system is not known yet. In the catabolization process, organic matters turn into inorganic by the released enzymes from lots of microorganisms which live in compost. In other words, the cooperative of activated enzymes in the compost decomposes malodorous substances. Thus, clarifying the interaction among enzymes is important for revealing the catabolizing system of meladorous substance in compost. In this study, we utilized statistical method to infer the interaction among enzymes. We developed a method which combined partial correlation with cross correlation to estimate the relevance between enzymes especially from time series data of few variables. Because of using cross correlation, we can estimate not only the associative structure but also the reaction pathway. We applied the developed method to the enzyme measured data and estimated an interaction among the enzymes in decomposition mechanism of toluene.

Keywords: enzyme activities, comparative analysis, compost, toluene

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Authors: S. Hosseini, M. Ahmadi Najafabadi, M. Akhlaghi

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The health of the journal bearings is very important in preventing unforeseen breakdowns in rotary machines, and poor lubrication is one of the most important factors for producing the bearing failures. Hydrodynamic lubrication (HL), mixed lubrication (ML), and boundary lubrication (BL) are three regimes of a journal bearing lubrication. This paper uses acoustic emission (AE) measurement technique to correlate features of the AE signals to the three lubrication regimes. The transitions from HL to ML based on operating factors such as rotating speed, load, inlet oil pressure by time domain and time-frequency domain signal analysis techniques are detected, and then metal-to-metal contacts between sliding surfaces of the journal and bearing are identified. It is found that there is a significant difference between theoretical and experimental operating values that are obtained for defining the lubrication regions.

Keywords: acoustic emission technique, pressure fed journal bearing, time and frequency signal analysis, metal-to-metal contact

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Authors: S. N. Harun, H. Ahmad

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A series of ruthenium(II) complexes, including two novel compounds [Ru(dppz)2(L)]2+ where dppz = dipyrido-[3,2-a:2’,3’-c]phenazine, and L = 2-phenylimidazo[4,5-f][1,10]phenanthroline (PIP) or 2-(4-hydroxyphenyl)imidazo[4,5-f][1,10]phenanthroline (p-HPIP) have been synthesized and characterized. The previously reported complexes [Ru(bpy)2L]2+ and [Ru(phen)2L]2+ were also prepared. All complexes were characterized by elemental analysis, 1H-NMR spectroscopy, ESI-Mass spectroscopy and FT-IR spectroscopy. The photophysical properties were analyzed by UV-Visible spectroscopy and fluorescence spectroscopy. [Ru(dppz)2(PIP)]2+ and [Ru(dppz)2(p-HPIP)]2+ displayed ‘molecular light-switch’ effect as they have high emission in acetonitrile but no emission in water. The cytotoxicity of all complexes against cancer cell lines Hela and MCF-7 were investigated through standard MTT assay. [Ru(dppz)2(PIP)]2+ showed moderate toxicity on both MCF-7 and Hela with IC50 of 37.64 µM and 28.02 µM, respectively. Interestingly, [Ru(dppz)2(p-HPIP)]2+ exhibited remarkable cytotoxicity results with IC50 of 13.52 µM on Hela and 11.63 µM on MCF-7 cell lines which are comparable to the infamous anti-cancer drug, cisplatin. The cytotoxicity of this complex series increased as the ligands size extended in order of [Ru(bpy)2(L)]2+ < [Ru(phen)2(L)]2+ < [Ru(dppz)2(L)]2+.

Keywords: ruthenium, cytotoxicity, molecular light-switch, anticancer

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Authors: Alma Lucero Ortiz, Mario Gomez

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Technological advances contribute to the well-being of humanity by allowing man to perform in a more efficient way. Technology offers tangible advantages to countries with the adoption of information technologies, communication, and the Internet in all social and productive sectors. The Internet is a networking infrastructure that allows the communication of people throughout the world, exceeding the limits of time and space. Nowadays the internet has changed the way of doing business leading to a digital economy. In this way, e-commerce has emerged as a commercial transaction conducted over the Internet. For this inquiry e-commerce is seen as a source of economic growth for the country. Thereby, these research aims to answer the research question, which are the main variables that have affected the development of e-commerce in Mexico. The research includes a period of study from 1990 to 2017. This inquiry aims to get insight on how the independent variables influence the e-commerce development. The independent variables are information infrastructure construction, urbanization level, economic level, technology level, human capital level, educational level, standards of living, and price index. The results suggest that the independent variables have an impact on development of the e-commerce in Mexico. The present study is carried out in five parts. After the introduction, in the second part, a literature review about the main qualitative and quantitative studies to measure the variables subject to the study is presented. After, an empirical study is applied through time series data, and to process the data an econometric model is performed. In the fourth part, the analysis and discussion of results are presented, and finally, some conclusions are included.

Keywords: digital economy, e-commerce, econometric model, economic growth, internet

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Authors: Bouthiba Amina

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The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of project progress and external factors. This research proposes a machine learning-based approach to forecast project performance metrics, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category in an urban road reconstruction project. The proposed model utilizes time series forecasting techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance based on historical data and project progress. The model also incorporates external factors, such as weather patterns and resource availability, as features to enhance the accuracy of forecasts. By applying the predictive power of machine learning, the performance forecasting model enables proactive identification of potential deviations from the baseline plan, which allows project managers to take timely corrective actions. The research aims to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a case study of an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's forecasts with actual project performance data. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry, offering a data-driven solution for improving project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, earned value management

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Authors: Qi Xiu, Hiromu Hota, Yohsuke Ishii, Takuya Oda

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Recently, collectable manufacturing data are rapidly increasing. On the other hand, mega recall is getting serious as a social problem. Under such circumstances, there are increasing needs for preventing mega recalls by defect analysis such as root cause analysis and abnormal detection utilizing manufacturing data. However, the time to classify strings in manufacturing data by traditional method is too long to meet requirement of quick defect analysis. Therefore, we present String Length Distribution Classification method (SLDC) to correctly classify strings in a short time. This method learns character features, especially string length distribution from Product ID, Machine ID in BOM and asset list. By applying the proposal to strings in actual manufacturing data, we verified that the classification time of strings can be reduced by 80%. As a result, it can be estimated that the requirement of quick defect analysis can be fulfilled.

Keywords: string classification, data quality, feature selection, probability distribution, string length

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Authors: Atish Bagchi, Siva Chandrasekaran

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Background: According to World Bank national accounts data, the estimated global manufacturing value-added output in 2020 was 13.74 trillion USD. These manufacturing processes are monitored, modelled, and controlled by advanced, real-time, computer-based systems, e.g., Industrial IoT, PLC, SCADA, etc. These systems measure and manipulate a set of physical variables, e.g., temperature, pressure, etc. Despite the use of IoT, SCADA etc., in manufacturing, studies suggest that unplanned downtime leads to economic losses of approximately 864 billion USD each year. Therefore, real-time, accurate detection, classification and prediction of machine behaviour are needed to minimise financial losses. Although vast literature exists on time-series data processing using machine learning, the challenges faced by the industries that lead to unplanned downtimes are: The current algorithms do not efficiently handle the high-volume streaming data from industrial IoTsensors and were tested on static and simulated datasets. While the existing algorithms can detect significant 'point' outliers, most do not handle contextual outliers (e.g., values within normal range but happening at an unexpected time of day) or subtle changes in machine behaviour. Machines are revamped periodically as part of planned maintenance programmes, which change the assumptions on which original AI models were created and trained. Aim: This research study aims to deliver a Graph Neural Network(GNN)based hybrid forecasting model that interfaces with the real-time machine control systemand can detect, predict machine behaviour and behavioural changes (anomalies) in real-time. This research will help manufacturing industries and utilities, e.g., water, electricity etc., reduce unplanned downtimes and consequential financial losses. Method: The data stored within a process control system, e.g., Industrial-IoT, Data Historian, is generally sampled during data acquisition from the sensor (source) and whenpersistingin the Data Historian to optimise storage and query performance. The sampling may inadvertently discard values that might contain subtle aspects of behavioural changes in machines. This research proposed a hybrid forecasting and classification model which combines the expressive and extrapolation capability of GNN enhanced with the estimates of entropy and spectral changes in the sampled data and additional temporal contexts to reconstruct the likely temporal trajectory of machine behavioural changes. The proposed real-time model belongs to the Deep Learning category of machine learning and interfaces with the sensors directly or through 'Process Data Historian', SCADA etc., to perform forecasting and classification tasks. Results: The model was interfaced with a Data Historianholding time-series data from 4flow sensors within a water treatment plantfor45 days. The recorded sampling interval for a sensor varied from 10 sec to 30 min. Approximately 65% of the available data was used for training the model, 20% for validation, and the rest for testing. The model identified the anomalies within the water treatment plant and predicted the plant's performance. These results were compared with the data reported by the plant SCADA-Historian system and the official data reported by the plant authorities. The model's accuracy was much higher (20%) than that reported by the SCADA-Historian system and matched the validated results declared by the plant auditors. Conclusions: The research demonstrates that a hybrid GNN based approach enhanced with entropy calculation and spectral information can effectively detect and predict a machine's behavioural changes. The model can interface with a plant's 'process control system' in real-time to perform forecasting and classification tasks to aid the asset management engineers to operate their machines more efficiently and reduce unplanned downtimes. A series of trialsare planned for this model in the future in other manufacturing industries.

Keywords: GNN, Entropy, anomaly detection, industrial time-series, AI, IoT, Industry 4.0, Machine Learning

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Authors: Mahmoud Amer, Ibrahim El-Sharkawy, Shinichi Ookawara, Ahmed Elwardany

Abstract:

Gasification and carbonization are two of the most common ways for biomass utilization. Both processes are using part of the waste to be accomplished, either by incomplete combustion or for heating for both gasification and carbonization, respectively. The focus of this paper is to minimize the part of the waste that is used for heating biomass for gasification and carbonization. This will occur by combining both gasifiers and carbonization reactors in a single unit to utilize the heat in the product biogas to heating up the wastes in the carbonization reactors. Three different designs are proposed for the combined gasification/carbonization (CGC) reactor. These include a parallel combination of two gasifiers and carbonized syngas, carbonizer and combustion chamber, and one gasifier, carbonizer, and combustion chamber. They are tested numerically using ANSYS Fluent Computational Fluid Dynamics to ensure homogeneity of temperature distribution inside the carbonization part of the CGC reactor. 2D simulations are performed for the three cases after performing both mesh-size and time-step independent solutions. The carbonization part is common among the three different cases, and the difference among them is how this carbonization reactor is heated. The simulation results showed that the first design could provide only partial homogeneous temperature distribution, not across the whole reactor. This means that the produced carbonized biomass will be reduced as it will only fill a specified height of the reactor. To keep the carbonized product production high, a series combination is proposed. This series configuration resulted in a uniform temperature distribution across the whole reactor as it has only one source for heat with no temperature distribution on any surface of the carbonization section. The simulations provided a satisfactory result that either the first parallel combination of gasifier and carbonization reactor could be used with a reduced carbonized amount or a series configuration to keep the production rate high.

Keywords: numerical simulation, carbonization, gasification, biomass, reactor

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Naoki Suzuki, Kazumi Sakuramoto,

Abstract:

The North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) is a temperate tuna species distributed in the North Pacific which is of significant economic importance to the Pacific Island Nations and Territories. Despite its importance, the stock dynamics and ecological characteristics of albacore still, have gaps in knowledge. The stock-recruitment relationship of the North Pacific stock of albacore tuna was investigated for different density-dependent effects and a regime shift in the stock characteristics in response to changes in environmental and climatic conditions. Linear regression analysis for recruit per spawning biomass (RPS) and recruitment (R) against the female spawning stock biomass (SSB) were significant for the presence of different density-dependent effects and positive for a regime shift in the stock time series. Application of Deming regression to RPS against SSB with the assumption for the presence of observation and process errors in both the dependent and independent variables confirmed the results of simple regression. However, R against SSB results disagreed given variance level of < 3 and agreed with linear regression results given the assumption of variance ≥ 3. Assuming the presence of different density-dependent effects in the albacore tuna time series, environmental and climatic condition variables were compared with R, RPS, and SSB. The significant relationship of R, RPS and SSB were determined with the sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with SST being the principal variable exhibiting significantly similar trend with R and RPS. Recruitment is significantly influenced by the dynamics of the SSB as well as environmental conditions which demonstrates that the stock-recruitment relationship is multidimensional. Further investigation of the North Pacific albacore tuna age-class and structure is necessary for further support the results presented here. It is important for fishery managers and decision makers to be vigilant of regime shifts in environmental conditions relating to albacore tuna as it may possibly cause regime shifts in the albacore R and RPS which should be taken into account to effectively and sustainability formulate harvesting plans and management of the species in the North Pacific oceanic region.

Keywords: Albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, recruits per spawning biomass, sea surface temperature, pacific decadal oscillation, El Niño southern oscillation, density-dependent effects, regime shift

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Revalin Herdianto

Abstract:

Recent climate changes increase uncertainties in vegetation conditions such as health and biomass globally and locally. The detection is, however, difficult due to the spatial and temporal scale of vegetation coverage. Due to unique vegetation response to its environmental conditions such as water availability, the interplay between vegetation dynamics and hydrologic conditions leave a signature in their feedback relationship. Vegetation indices (VI) depict vegetation biomass and photosynthetic capacity that indicate vegetation dynamics as a response to variables including hydrologic conditions and microclimate factors such as rainfall characteristics and land surface temperature (LST). It is hypothesized that the signature may be depicted by VI in its relationship with other variables. To study this signature, several catchments in Asia, Australia, and Indonesia were analysed to assess the variations in hydrologic characteristics with vegetation types. Methods used in this study includes geographic identification and pixel marking for studied catchments, analysing time series of VI and LST of the marked pixels, smoothing technique using Savitzky-Golay filter, which is effective for large area and extensive data. Time series of VI, LST, and rainfall from satellite and ground stations coupled with digital elevation models were analysed and presented. This study found that the hydrologic response of vegetation to rainfall variations may be shown in one hydrologic year, in which a drought event can be detected a year later as a suppressed growth. However, an annual rainfall of above average do not promote growth above average as shown by VI. This technique is found to be a robust and tractable approach for assessing catchment dynamics in changing climates.

Keywords: vegetation indices, land surface temperature, vegetation dynamics, catchment

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Authors: Labar Hocine, Kelaiaia Mounia Samira, Mesbah Tarek, Kelaiaia Samia

Abstract:

Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) techniques are used in photovoltaic (PV) systems to maximize the PV array output power by tracking continuously the maximum power point(MPP) which depends on panels temperature and on irradiance conditions. The main drawback of P&O is that, the operating point oscillates around the MPP giving rise to the waste of some amount of available energy; moreover, it is well known that the P&O algorithm can be confused during those time intervals characterized by rapidly changing atmospheric conditions. In this paper, it is shown that in order to limit the negative effects associated to the above drawbacks, the P&O MPPT parameters must be customized to the dynamic behavior of the specific converter adopted. A theoretical analysis allowing the optimal choice of such initial set parameters is also carried out. The fast convergence of the proposal is proven.

Keywords: P&O, Taylor’s series, MPPT, photovoltaic panel

Procedia PDF Downloads 567

Authors: Sandrieli Afornali, Adriano Keijiro Maeda, Renato Fedatto Beraldo, Carlos Alberto Mattozo, Ricardo Nascimento Brito

Abstract:

BACKGROUND: The most used variety in hydrocephalus treatment is the ventriculoperitoneal shunt (VPS). However, it may fails in 20 to 70% of cases. It makes necessary to have alternative cavities for the implantation of the distal catheter. Ventriculo-atrial shunting (VAS) is described as the second option. To our knowledge, there are 121 reported cases of VGB shunt in children until 2020 and a highly variable success rate, from 25 to 100%, with an average of 63% of patients presenting good long-term results. Our goal is to evaluate the epidemiological profile of patients submitted to ventriculo-gallbladder (VGB) shunt and, through a review of literature, to compare our results with others series. METHODS: a retrospective cross-sectional observational study of a case series of nine patients. The medical records of all patients were reviewed, who underwent VGB shunt at the Hospital Pequeno Príncipe from Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil, from January 2014 to October 2022. The inclusion criteria were: patients under 17 years of age with hydrocephalus of any etiology, currently using or prior to VGB shunt. RESULTS: There were 6 (66,7%) male and 3 (33,3%) female. The average age of 73.6 months or 6.1 years at the time of surgery. They were submitted on average 5.1 VPS reviews previous to VGB shunt. Five (55,5%) had complications of VGB shunt: infection (11.1%), atony (11.1%), hypodrainage due to kinking the distal catheter in the solution (11.1%) and ventriculoenteric fistula (22.2%); all these patients were cured at surgical reapproach, and in 2 of them the VGB shunt was reimplanted. Two patients died (22.2%), and five (55,5%) patients maintained the use of VGB shunt in the follow-up period; and in 4 (44.4%) there was never need for review. CONCLUSION: VGB shunt tends to be underestimated because it is still unconventional and little publicized in literature. Our article shows a lower risk of death and similar risk of complications when compared to others altenatives shunts. We emphasize VGB shunt as a safe procedure to be the second option when VPS fails or has contraindications.

Keywords: hydrocephalus, ventricular-gallbladder shunt, VGB shunt, VPS, ventriculoperitoneal shunt, ventriculoatrial shunt

Procedia PDF Downloads 55