Search results for: future foresight
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7050

Search results for: future foresight

6630 Transmission of ASCII Code Messages Using a High Power (50mW) Underwater Laser Communication Prototype in Two Controlled Scenarios

Authors: Lessly Borja, Anthony Gualli, Kelly Baño, Fabricio Santacruz

Abstract:

In this article, a prototype of underwater communication using a long-range laser (50mW) has been carried out in two aquatic scenarios (fish tank and swimming pool) with the aim of recreating Aqua-Fi technology (the future of underwater communications) using a Bluetooth connection to the transmitter to send data in ASCII code by means of light. Initially, the transmitter and receiver circuits were programmed in Arduino so that the data would travel by light pulses in the aforementioned code. To obtain the results of the underwater communication, two scenarios were chosen (fish tank and swimming pool), where the power value of the received signal was calculated from its peak-to-peak voltage using the Oscilloscope equipment (ESPOCH). Finally, it was concluded that the maximum communication range of this prototype is 12m underwater, and it was observed that the power decreases as the distance increases. However, this prototype still needs to improve communication so that the information is not distorted or lost when there is movement and dispersion of the water. It is hoped that it will form the basis for future research.

Keywords: prototype, underwater, communication, power, voltage, distance

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6629 Analysis of the Simulation Merger and Economic Benefit of Local Farmers' Associations in Taiwan

Authors: Lu Yung-Hsiang, Chang Kuming, Dai Yi-Fang, Liao Ching-Yi

Abstract:

According to Taiwan’s administrative division of future land planning may lead farmer association and service areas facing recombination or merger. Thus, merger combination and the economic benefit of the farmer association are worth to be discussed. The farmer association in the merger, which may cause some then will not be consolidated, or consolidate two, or ever more to one association. However, under what condition to merge is greatest, as one of observation of this study. In addition, research without using simulation methods and only on the credit department rather whole farmer association. Therefore, this paper will use the simulation approach, and examine both the merge of farmer association and the condition under which the benefits are the greatest. The data of this study set include 266 farmer associations in Taiwan period 2012 to 2013. Empirical results showed that the number of the farmer association optimal simulation combination is 108.After the merger from the first stage can be reduced by 60% of the farmers’ association. The cost saving effects of the post-merger is not different. The cost efficiency of the farmers’ association improved it. The economies of scale and scope would decrease by the merger. The research paper hopes the finding will benefit the future merger of the farmers’ association.

Keywords: simulation merger, farmer association, assurance region, data envelopment analysis

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6628 Climate Change Effects in a Mediterranean Island and Streamflow Changes for a Small Basin Using Euro-Cordex Regional Climate Simulations Combined with the SWAT Model

Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici

Abstract:

Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.

Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble

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6627 Forecasting the Influences of Information and Communication Technology on the Structural Changes of Japanese Industrial Sectors: A Study Using Statistical Analysis

Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies based on Leontief Input-Output (IO) coefficients. This study establishes a statistical analysis to predict the future interrelationships among industries. We employ the Constrained Multivariate Regression (CMR) model to analyze the historical changes of input-output coefficients. Statistical significance of the model is then tested by Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT). In our model, ICT is represented by two explanatory variables, i.e. computers (including main parts and accessories) and telecommunications equipment. A previous study, which analyzed the influences of these variables on the structural changes of Japanese industrial sectors from 1985-2005, concluded that these variables had significant influences on the changes in the business circumstances of Japanese commerce, business services and office supplies, and personal services sectors. The projected future Japanese economic structure based on the above forecast generates the differentiated direct and indirect outcomes of ICT penetration.

Keywords: forecast, ICT, industrial structural changes, statistical analysis

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6626 Teaching 'Sustainable Architecture' to Pre-School Children by School Building for a Clean Future

Authors: Cimen Ozburak

Abstract:

Pollution and the consumption of natural resources are significant global concerns. These problems have to be resolved in order to create a cleaner environment for the world. It is believed that sustainable building designs may reduce environmental problems throughout the world. It is known that if children receive environmental education in early childhood, they will be more likely to construct sustainable living systems and environment when they are older. School buildings can be used as educational material for teaching the natural and artificial environment in environmental education. In this study, the effect of school buildings on environmental education is examined by using the literature review method along with various examples. The selected examples in the study were analyzed according to 4 main criteria of LEED green building certification systems. These are the use of sustainable utilization of land, efficient utilization of water, efficient utilization of energy and efficient utilization of materials. According to the literature review, children who are educated in buildings designed according to these criteria, they will be environmentally sensitive individuals when they are older.

Keywords: clean future, educational sustainable pre-schools, environmental education, sustainable systems

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6625 The Simplicity of the Future: Plain Methods of Setting up a Company under the Freedom of Enterprise

Authors: Renata Hrecska

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This research aims to present today's corporate law reforms in the micro, small and medium-sized enterprise sector. The UN Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) currently deals with emerging issues in the sector in its Working Group I that has specifically focused on possible company law simplifications, including the creation of a fully unique company, the UNCITRAL Limited Liability Organization. However, beyond the work at the UN, the different states has also been focusing on simplification efforts and demands in the sphere of commercial law. We can observe that e.g. Slovakia, Serbia, Poland, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and France are undergoing legal reforms aimed at restructuring the sector through simplification of registration or operation. An important objective of the research is to examine where the boundary is for the legal entity to be more transparent and accountable, while the legislator wants to bring the possibility of establishing a company closer to the citizen. The research material presents the advantages and disadvantages of different initiatives with comparative legal instruments and draws conclusions on the possible future vision. The researcher herself attended some of the meetings of the relevant UNCITRAL working group as a national delegated expert, giving her a personal insight into the UNLLO discourse.

Keywords: commercial law, company formation, MSME, UNCITRAL

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6624 Identifying & Exploring Top 10 sustainable, Systemic Leadership Practices Of a School Leader To Improve School Leadership and Student Learning Outcomes

Authors: Sapana Pankaj Purandare

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The world is changing and so is the School Leadership. We are entering in the era of 21st century and we need to modify our school leadership accordingly and the School Leader would be the one impacting the system too. As we implemented LEAD project on the field we realized that 67 practices are a lot and impractical for any school leader to implement. So through this project the researcher intends to roll out a questionnaire with the KEF partner school leaders as well as other school leaders working in the same context, to identify the practices that would help them improve school leadership as well as SLO and the practices that they find relevant in the current situation as well as the ones that they perceive and think important in the preferred future. We used the Qualtrics tool to conduct the survey to find out which are the top 15 practices the respondents feel they would be crucial 10-15 years hence that will support them to better the SLO. We also conducted FGD’s and interviews to find out the reasons for which they are unable to follow these practices at their schools. The recommendations of top 15 practices would be helpful to design the scalable models for LEAD and pitch them at state level expansion. Practices with higher standard deviation and average score are more significant for future. Factors like age, gender and years of service shape the perceptions of practices and hence have people of same ratio.

Keywords: improving teaching learning practices, impacting student learning outcomes, school leadership practices, sustainable change

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6623 Assessing the Use of Biomedicine in Nigeria: A Case Study of IDO and Northwest Local Government Areas of Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Adeyemi A. Ajisebiolola

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This study examined people’s responses to demand and consumption of herbal medicines in Nigeria. It also assessed people’s evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing medicines on the treatment of ailments and encouraging forest products utilization for greener future in terms of healthcare delivery. Two Local Government Areas, namely Ido and Ibadan Northwest were adopted for the study; Ido is characterized by rural populace and Ibadan Northwest by urban populace. Out of 500 questionnaires randomly administered to the households in the two local government areas of study, 481 (96.2%) were recovered. Statistical analysis employed showed that people were beginning to understand the importance of herbal medicines in Nigeria as majority of the households use herbal medicines to treat various ailments. Among the major problems encountered by the respondents are lack of precise dosage and adequate preservation methods. It was recommended that Forestry Research Institutes in Nigeria should be deeply involved in the findings on medicinal plants, package them into products and make them available to the society for sustainable healthcare management and greener future of the nation.

Keywords: demand and consumption, forest products, herbal medicines, Nigeria

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6622 Genomic Resilience and Ecological Vulnerability in Coffea Arabica: Insights from Whole Genome Resequencing at Its Center of Origin

Authors: Zewdneh Zana Zate

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The study focuses on the evolutionary and ecological genomics of both wild and cultivated Coffea arabica L. at its center of origin, Ethiopia, aiming to uncover how this vital species may withstand future climate changes. Utilizing bioclimatic models, we project the future distribution of Arabica under varied climate scenarios for 2050 and 2080, identifying potential conservation zones and immediate risk areas. Through whole-genome resequencing of accessions from Ethiopian gene banks, this research assesses genetic diversity and divergence between wild and cultivated populations. It explores relationships, demographic histories, and potential hybridization events among Coffea arabica accessions to better understand the species' origins and its connection to parental species. This genomic analysis also seeks to detect signs of natural or artificial selection across populations. Integrating these genomic discoveries with ecological data, the study evaluates the current and future ecological and genomic vulnerabilities of wild Coffea arabica, emphasizing necessary adaptations for survival. We have identified key genomic regions linked to environmental stress tolerance, which could be crucial for breeding more resilient Arabica varieties. Additionally, our ecological modeling predicted a contraction of suitable habitats, urging immediate conservation actions in identified key areas. This research not only elucidates the evolutionary history and adaptive strategies of Arabica but also informs conservation priorities and breeding strategies to enhance resilience to climate change. By synthesizing genomic and ecological insights, we provide a robust framework for developing effective management strategies aimed at sustaining Coffea arabica, a species of profound global importance, in its native habitat under evolving climatic conditions.

Keywords: coffea arabica, climate change adaptation, conservation strategies, genomic resilience

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6621 Adsorptive Membrane for Hemodialysis: Potential, Future Prospection and Limitation of MOF as Nanofillers

Authors: MUSAWIRA IFTIKHAR

Abstract:

The field of membrane materials is the most dynamic due to the constantly evolving requirements advancement of materials, to address challenges such as biocompatibility, protein-bound uremic toxins, blood coagulation, auto-immune responses, oxidative stress, and poor clearance of uremic toxins. Hemodialysis is a membrane filtration processes that is currently necessary for daily living of the patients with ESRD. Tens of millions of people with ESRD have benefited from hemodialysis over the past 60–70 years, both in terms of safeguarding life and a longer lifespan. Beyond challenges associated with the efficiency and separative properties of the membranes, ensuring hemocompatibility, or the safe circulation of blood outside the body for four hours every two days, remains a persistent challenge. This review explores the ongoing field of metal–Organic Frameworks (MOFs) and their applications in hemodialysis, offering a comprehensive examination of various MOFs employed to address challenges inherent in traditional hemodialysis methodologies. this This review included includes the experimental work done with various MOFs as a filler such as UiO-66, HKUST-1, MIL-101, and ZIF-8, which together lead to improved adsorption capacities for a range of uremic toxins and proteins. Furthermore, this review highlights how effectively MOF-based hemodialysis membranes remove a variety of uremic toxins, including p-cresol, urea, creatinine, and indoxyl sulfate and potential filler choices for the future. Future research efforts should focus on refining synthesis techniques, enhancing toxin selectivity, and investigating the long-term durability of MOF-based membranes. With these considerations, MOFs emerge as transformative materials in the quest to develop advanced and efficient hemodialysis technologies, holding the promise to significantly enhance patient outcomes and redefine the landscape of renal therapy.

Keywords: membrane, hemodailysis, metal organic frameworks, seperation, protein adsorbtion

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6620 Identifying Indicative Health Behaviours and Psychosocial Factors Affecting Multi-morbidity Conditions in Ageing Populations: Preliminary Results from the ELSA study of Ageing

Authors: Briony Gray, Glenn Simpson, Hajira Dambha-Miller, Andrew Farmer

Abstract:

Multimorbidity may be strongly affected by a variety of conditions, factors, and variables requiring higher demands on health and social care services, infrastructure, and expenses. Holding one or more conditions increases one’s risk for development of future conditions; with patients over 65 years old at highest risk. Psychosocial factors such as anxiety and depression are rising exponentially globally, which has been amplified by the COVID19 pandemic. These are highly correlated and predict poorer outcomes when held in coexistence and increase the likelihood of comorbid physical health conditions. While possible future reform of social and healthcare systems may help to alleviate some of these mounting pressures, there remains an urgent need to better understand the potential role health behaviours and psychosocial conditions - such as anxiety and depression – may have on aging populations. Using the UK healthcare scene as a lens for analysis, this study uses big data collected in the UK Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) to examine the role of anxiety and depression in ageing populations (65yrs+). Using logistic regression modelling, results identify the 10 most significant variables correlated with both anxiety and depression from data categorised into the areas of health behaviour, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and life satisfaction (each demonstrated through literature review to be of significance). These are compared with wider global research findings with the aim of better understanding the areas in which social and healthcare reform can support multimorbidity interventions, making suggestions for improved patient-centred care. Scope of future research is outlined, which includes analysis of 59 total multimorbidity variables from the ELSA dataset, going beyond anxiety and depression.

Keywords: multimorbidity, health behaviours, patient centred care, psychosocial factors

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6619 Hate Speech Detection Using Machine Learning: A Survey

Authors: Edemealem Desalegn Kingawa, Kafte Tasew Timkete, Mekashaw Girmaw Abebe, Terefe Feyisa, Abiyot Bitew Mihretie, Senait Teklemarkos Haile

Abstract:

Currently, hate speech is a growing challenge for society, individuals, policymakers, and researchers, as social media platforms make it easy to anonymously create and grow online friends and followers and provide an online forum for debate about specific issues of community life, culture, politics, and others. Despite this, research on identifying and detecting hate speech is not satisfactory performance, and this is why future research on this issue is constantly called for. This paper provides a systematic review of the literature in this field, with a focus on approaches like word embedding techniques, machine learning, deep learning technologies, hate speech terminology, and other state-of-the-art technologies with challenges. In this paper, we have made a systematic review of the last six years of literature from Research Gate and Google Scholar. Furthermore, limitations, along with algorithm selection and use challenges, data collection, and cleaning challenges, and future research directions, are discussed in detail.

Keywords: Amharic hate speech, deep learning approach, hate speech detection review, Afaan Oromo hate speech detection

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6618 Managing the Baltic Sea Region Resilience: Prevention, Treatment Actions and Circular Economy

Authors: J. Burlakovs, Y. Jani, L. Grinberga, M. Kriipsalu, O. Anne, I. Grinfelde, W. Hogland

Abstract:

The worldwide future sustainable economies are oriented towards the sea: the maritime economy is becoming one of the strongest driving forces in many regions as population growth is the highest in coastal areas. For hundreds of years sea resources were depleted unsustainably by fishing, mining, transportation, tourism, and waste. European Sustainable Development Strategy is identifying and developing actions to enable the EU to achieve a continuous, long-term improvement of the quality of life through the creation of sustainable communities. The aim of this paper is to provide insight in Baltic Sea Region case studies on implemented actions on tourism industry waste and beach wrack management in coastal areas, hazardous contaminants and plastic flow treatment from waste, wastewaters and stormwaters. These projects mentioned in study promote successful prevention of contaminant flows to the sea environments and provide perspectives for creation of valuable new products from residuals for future circular economy are the step forward to green innovation winning streak.

Keywords: resilience, hazardous waste, phytoremediation, water management, circular economy

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6617 Case Study Analysis for Driver's Company in the Transport Sector with the Help of Data Mining

Authors: Diana Katherine Gonzalez Galindo, David Rolando Suarez Mora

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With this study, we used data mining as a new alternative of the solution to evaluate the comments of the customers in order to find a pattern that helps us to determine some behaviors to reduce the deactivation of the partners of the LEVEL app. In one of the greatest business created in the last times, the partners are being affected due to an internal process that compensates the customer for a bad experience, but these comments could be false towards the driver, that’s why we made an investigation to collect information to restructure this process, many partners have been disassociated due to this internal process and many of them refuse the comments given by the customer. The main methodology used in this case study is the observation, we recollect information in real time what gave us the opportunity to see the most common issues to get the most accurate solution. With this new process helped by data mining, we could get a prediction based on the behaviors of the customer and some basic data recollected such as the age, the gender, and others; this could help us in future to improve another process. This investigation gives more opportunities to the partner to keep his account active even if the customer writes a message through the app. The term is trying to avoid a recession of drivers in the future offering improving in the processes, at the same time we are in search of stablishing a strategy which benefits both the app’s managers and the associated driver.

Keywords: agent, driver, deactivation, rider

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6616 21st Century Computer Technology for the Training of Early Childhood Teachers: A Study of Second-Year Education Students Challenged with Building a Kindergarten Website

Authors: Yonit Nissim, Eyal Weissblueth

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This research is the continuation of a process that began in 2010 with the goal of redesigning the training program for future early childhood teachers at the Ohalo College, to integrate technology and provide 21st-century skills. The article focuses on a study of the processes involved in developing a special educational unit which challenged students with the task of designing, planning and building an internet site for kindergartens. This project was part of their second-year studies in the early childhood track of an interdisciplinary course entitled 'Educating for the Future.' The goal: enabling students to gain experience in developing an internet site specifically for kindergartens, and gain familiarity with Google platforms, the acquisition and use of innovative skills and the integration of technology in pedagogy. Research questions examined how students handled the task of building an internet site. The study explored whether the guided process of building a site helped them develop proficiency in creativity, teamwork, evaluation and learning appropriate to the 21st century. The research tool was a questionnaire constructed by the researchers and distributed online to the students. Answers were collected from 50-course participants. Analysis of the participants’ responses showed that, along with the significant experience and benefits that students gained from building a website for kindergarten, ambivalence was shown toward the use of new, unfamiliar and complex technology. This attitude was characterized by unease and initial emotional distress triggered by the departure from routine training to an island of uncertainty. A gradual change took place toward the adoption of innovation with the help of empathy, training, and guidance from the instructors, leading to the students’ success in carrying out the task. Initial success led to further successes, resulting in a quality product and a feeling of personal competency among the students. A clear and extreme emotional shift was observed on the spectrum from a sense of difficulty and dissatisfaction to feelings of satisfaction, joy, competency and cognitive understanding of the importance of facing a challenge and succeeding. The findings of this study can contribute to increased understanding of the complex training process of future kindergarten teachers, coping with a changing world, and pedagogy that is supported by technology.

Keywords: early childhood teachers, educating for the future, emotions, kindergarten website

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6615 The Psychological Specification of Motivation of Managerial Activity

Authors: Laura Petrosyan

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The high and persistent working results are possible when people are interested in the results of the work. Motivation of working may be present as a psychological complicated phenomena, which determines person's behavior in working process. Researchers point out that working motivation is displayed in three correlated conditions. These are interest in outcomes of work, satisfaction with the work, and the third, is the level of devotion of employee. Solution of the problem of effective staff management depends on the development of workers' skills. Despite, above mentioned problem could be solved by the process of finding methods to induce the employees to the effective work. Motivation of the managerial activity aroused not only during the working process, but also before it starts. During education the future manager obtains many professional skills. However, the experience shows, that only professional skills are not enough for the effective work. Presently, one of the global educational problems is the development of motivation in professions. In psychological literature the fact is mentioned, that the motivation can be inside and outside. Outside motivation is active only at short time. Instead, inside motivation can be active during all process of the professional development. Hence, the motivation of managerial activity might be developed during the education. The future manager choose the profession being under some impression of personal qualities. Detection of future manager’s motivation will influence on the development of syllabuses. Moreover, use of the psychological methods could be evolved for preparing motivated managers. Conducted research has been done in the Public Administration Academy of the RA. The aim of research was to discover students' motivation of profession. 102 master students took part in the research from Public Administration Academy. In the research were used the following methods: method of identifying a person's motivation to succeed (T. Elers) and method of studying students’ motivation (T.E. Ilyin). First of the methods designed to explore a person's motivational orientation to get success represented by Hackhausen. The method gives the opportunity to reveal the level of motivation to success. In the second method separated three scales: i) Knowledge achievements, ii) Knowledge of the profession, iii) Get a diploma. The data obtained from these tests gave quantitative data. Aanalyses of our survey results exposes that within master students the high level have the average rates of knowledge achievements. The average rates of knowledge of the profession and geting a diploma not in high level. Furthermore, there are almost equal to each other. In the educational process The student acquiring skills not synthesize with the wield profession. Results show that specialists really view about profession not formulated yet.

Keywords: managerial activity, motivation, psychological complicated phenomena, working process, education the future manager

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6614 Assessing Student Attitudes toward Graded Readers, MReader and the MReader Challenge

Authors: Catherine Cheetam, Alan Harper, Melody Elliott, Mika Ito

Abstract:

This paper describes a pilot study conducted with English as a foreign language (EFL) students at a private university in Japan who used graded readers and the MReader website in class or independently to enhance their English reading skills. Each semester students who read 100,000 words with MReader quizzes passed enter into the ‘MReader Challenge,’ a reading contest that recognizes students for their achievement. The study focused specifically on the attitudes of thirty-six EFL students who successfully completed the Challenge in the 2015 spring semester using graded readers and MReader, and their motivation to continue using English in the future. The attitudes of these students were measured using their responses to statements on a Likert scaled survey. Follow-up semi-structured interviews were conducted with eleven students to gain additional insight into their opinions. The results from this study suggest that reading graded readers in general promoted intrinsic motivation among a majority of the participants. This study is preliminary and needs to be expanded and continued to assess the lasting impact of the extensive reading program. Limitations and future directions of the study are also summarized and discussed.

Keywords: attitudes, extensive, intrinsic, methodolgies, motivation, reading

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6613 Business Entrepreneurs in the Making

Authors: Talha Sareshwala

Abstract:

The purpose of this research paper is to revise the skills of an entrepreneur in the making and to guide future Entrepreneurs into a promising future. The study presents a broader review of entrepreneurship, starting from its definition and antecedents. A well-developed original set of guidelines can help budding entrepreneurs and practitioners seeking an answer to being successful as an entrepreneur. It is a journey full of excitement, experiences, rewards, and learning. Dedication, work ethics and a never-say-die attitude will largely contribute to the success as a businessman and an entrepreneur. This paper is sharing an experience of how an entrepreneur can act as a catalyst for young minds while ensuring them that ethics and principles do pay in business when followed in true spirit and action. It is very important for an entrepreneur to enhance his product or services, marketing skills, and market share, along with providing customer satisfaction and opportunities for teams to improve their leadership qualities. To have strong employee loyalty and job satisfaction among its employees. Based on Research objectives, primarily in-depth interviews and focused group interviews were conducted as a qualitative research method. And to support this survey, questionnaires were used as a qualitative research method to explore how Indian Entrepreneurs face the challenge of the changing, volatile socio-political environment in India.

Keywords: entrepreneur, business ethics, sales, marketing

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6612 The Reliability of Management Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses: A Study of Managers’ Forecasting Preferences

Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

Abstract:

This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: intentional bias, management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability

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6611 Integrated Risk Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change for the Coastal Infrastructure

Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

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6610 A Futuristic Look at American Indian Nationhood: Zits in Sherman Alexie’s Flight

Authors: Shaimaa Alobaidi

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The presentation examines how urbanization opens possibilities for American Indian characters like Zits in Alexie’s Flightto explore new definitionsoftheirtribal self-identification. Zits travels in time and views the world from different bodies, ages, and races; his journeys end with different perspectives on the idea of nationhood as an American Indian. He is an example of Vine Deloria’s statementthat “urban Indians have become the cutting edge of the new Indian nationalism” (248). Flight is chosen because the momentZits leaves the real world for time-traveling adventures is very critical; it is a moment of rage that ends in the mass murder of many Anglo-Americans. The paper focus on the turning point when he returns into his body with new opportunities towards his existence among the majority of anglo-Americans who cannot help but see him American Indian minority in need of help and assistance. Characters, such as Zits, attempt to outlive alienation, and Alexie gives new definitionsof their ethnic nationhood. Futuristicdoes not mean the very far unpredictable future; it is rather a nearpotential future for teenagers of American Indians, like Zits, Arnold, andCoyoteSprings- the band in ReservationBlues; all revolutionary personalitiesin Alexie’s works. They will be analyzed as Gerald Vizenor’s “postindianwarriors” who have the ability to identify Indigenous nationalism in a post-colonial context.

Keywords: alienation, self-identification, nationhood, urbanization, postindian

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6609 A Psycho-Education Strategy as a Method for Reconstructing Identity in the Context of Family Violence

Authors: Charlene Petersen, Herman Grobler, Karel Botha

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Restorative intervention with adolescents from a family violence context is a much needed resource given the limited access to mental health services in South Africa. In this research article the qualitative component which formed part of a mixed methods design of an overall research study, is discussed. A qualitative case study design was used. This article explores a psycho-education strategy, using a visual creative medium as a method for reconstructing identity in the context of family violence. The aim of this psycho-education strategy was to move away from interventions based on the biomedical model, but focused more on meaning-making about violent traumatic events adolescents have experienced, and to develop more positive, adaptive views about themselves in the present, and experience hope about the future. The research question that was asked was how the meaning, that adolescents from a specific community in South Africa give to family violence, contribute to defining their identity? Twelve participants were purposively selected for the study and included both male and female adolescents with ages ranging from 15 to 18 years from three secondary schools. The strategy was applied over five sessions with the intention to bring about awareness of different selves, identifying and naming the selves, and becoming aware of the configuration of identity that could lead to a redefined identity. The data were thematically and visually analyzed. Through the process of tailoring which forms the basis for reconstruction process, participants could identify the different selves, become aware of how they configure in the field. Through the process of tailoring the different self-parts, the sense of self became more self-cohesive and allowed the individual to become aware of the role of certain. Through identifying and naming the future self and resilient self the participants were able to accomplish some order and meaning in their lives. It provided them with a sense of predictability and an optimistic and hopefulness towards the future. The research findings indicated that this strategy can be used as a method for reconstructing identity in the context of family violence.

Keywords: identity, family violence, self-configuration, reconstructing identity, psycho-education strategy

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6608 Study of Heat Exchangers in Small Modular Reactors

Authors: Harish Aryal, Roger Hague, Daniel Sotelo, Felipe Astete Salinas

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparative study of different coolants, materials, and temperatures that can affect the effectiveness of heat exchangers that are used in small modular reactors. The corrugated plate heat exchangers were chosen out of different plate options for testing purposes because of their ease of access and better performance than other existing heat exchangers in recent years. SolidWorks enables us to see various results between water coolants and helium coolants acting upon different types of conducting metals, which were selected from different fluids that ultimately satisfied accessibility requirements and were compatible with the software. Though not every element, material, fluid, or method was used in the testing phase, their purpose is to help further research that is to come since the innovation of nuclear power is the future. The tests that were performed are to help better understand the constant necessities that are seen in heat exchangers and through every adjustment see what the breaking points or improvements in the machine are. Depending on consumers and researchers, the results may give further feedback as to show why different types of materials and fluids would be preferred and why it is necessary to keep failures to improve future research.

Keywords: heat exchangers, Solidworks, coolants, small modular reactors, nuclear power, nanofluids, Nusselt number, friction factor, Reynolds number

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6607 A Review and Classification of Maritime Disasters: The Case of Saudi Arabia's Coastline

Authors: Arif Almutairi, Monjur Mourshed

Abstract:

Due to varying geographical and tectonic factors, the region of Saudi Arabia has been subjected to numerous natural and man-made maritime disasters during the last two decades. Natural maritime disasters, such as cyclones and tsunamis, have been recorded in coastal areas of the Indian Ocean (including the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden). Therefore, the Indian Ocean is widely recognised as the potential source of future destructive natural disasters that could affect Saudi Arabia’s coastline. Meanwhile, man-made maritime disasters, such as those arising from piracy and oil pollution, are located in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf, which are key locations for oil export and transportation between Asia and Europe. This paper provides a brief overview of maritime disasters surrounding Saudi Arabia’s coastline in order to classify them by frequency of occurrence and location, and discuss their future impact the region. Results show that the Arabian Gulf will be more vulnerable to natural maritime disasters because of its location, whereas the Red Sea is more vulnerable to man-made maritime disasters, as it is the key location for transportation between Asia and Europe. The results also show that with the aid of proper classification, effective disaster management can reduce the consequences of maritime disasters.

Keywords: disaster classification, maritime disaster, natural disasters, man-made disasters

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6606 The Lean Manufacturing Practices in an Automotive Company Using Value Stream Mapping Technique

Authors: Seher Arslankaya, Merve Si̇mge Usuk

Abstract:

Lean manufacturing, which is based on the Toyota Production System, has focused on increasing the performance in various fields by eliminating the waste. By waste elimination, the lead time is reduced significantly and lean manufacturing provides companies with an important privilege under today's competitive conditions. The initial point of lean thinking is the value. This notion create of a specific product with specific properties for which the customer is ready to pay and which satisfies his needs within a specific time frame and at a specific price. Considering this, the final customer determines the value but the manufacturer creates this value of the product. The value stream is the whole set of activities required for each product. These activities may or may not be essential for the value. Through value stream mapping, all employees can see the sources of waste and develop future cases to eliminate it. This study focused on manufacturing to eliminate the waste which created a cost but did not create any value. The study was carried out at the Department of Assembly/Logistics at Toyota Motor Manufacturing Turkey from the automotive industry with a high product mix and variable demands. As a result of the value stream analysis, improvements are planned for the future cases. The process was improved by applying these suggestions.

Keywords: lead time, lean manufacturing, performance improvement, value stream papping

Procedia PDF Downloads 286
6605 ICT Training Programs in Tourism and Hospitality Institutes: An Analytical Study of Types, Effectiveness, and Graduate Perceived Importance

Authors: Magdy Abdel-Aleem Abdel-Ati Mayouf, Islam Al Sayed Hussein Al Sayed

Abstract:

Development of tourism and hospitality faculties' graduates is a key to the future health of hospitality and tourism sectors. Meanwhile information and communication technologies (ICTs) increasingly become the driving engine for productivity improvement and business opportunities in tourism and hospitality industry. Tourism and hospitality education and training must address these developments to enhance the ability of future managers to adopt a variety of ICT tools and strategies to increase their organization's efficiency and competitiveness. Therefore, this study aims to explore the types and effectiveness of ICT training offered by faculties of tourism and hotels in Egypt, and evaluating the importance of that training from the graduate's point of view. The study targets the graduates who graduated in the present ten years from three different faculties of tourism and hotels. Results argued the types, levels and effectiveness of ICT training offered in these faculties and the extent to which training programs were appreciated by graduates working in different fields, and finally, it recommended particular practices to enhance the training efficiency and raising the perceived benefits of it for workers in tourism and hospitality fields.

Keywords: training, IT, graduated, tourism and hospitality, education

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
6604 Subjective Temporal Resources: On the Relationship Between Time Perspective and Chronic Time Pressure to Burnout

Authors: Diamant Irene, Dar Tamar

Abstract:

Burnout, conceptualized within the framework of stress research, is to a large extent a result of a threat on resources of time or a feeling of time shortage. In reaction to numerous tasks, deadlines, high output, management of different duties encompassing work-home conflicts, many individuals experience ‘time pressure’. Time pressure is characterized as the perception of a lack of available time in relation to the amount of workload. It can be a result of local objective constraints, but it can also be a chronic attribute in coping with life. As such, time pressure is associated in the literature with general stress experience and can therefore be a direct, contributory burnout factor. The present study examines the relation of chronic time pressure – feeling of time shortage and of being rushed, with another central aspect in subjective temporal experience - time perspective. Time perspective is a stable personal disposition, capturing the extent to which people subjectively remember the past, live the present and\or anticipate the future. Based on Hobfoll’s Conservation of Resources Theory, it was hypothesized that individuals with chronic time pressure would experience a permanent threat on their time resources resulting in relatively increased burnout. In addition, it was hypothesized that different time perspective profiles, based on Zimbardo’s typology of five dimensions – Past Positive, Past Negative, Present Hedonistic, Present Fatalistic, and Future, would be related to different magnitudes of chronic time pressure and of burnout. We expected that individuals with ‘Past Negative’ or ‘Present Fatalist’ time perspectives would experience more burnout, with chronic time pressure being a moderator variable. Conversely, individuals with a ‘Present Hedonistic’ - with little concern with the future consequences of actions, would experience less chronic time pressure and less burnout. Another temporal experience angle examined in this study is the difference between the actual distribution of time (as in a typical day) versus desired distribution of time (such as would have been distributed optimally during a day). It was hypothesized that there would be a positive correlation between the gap between these time distributions and chronic time pressure and burnout. Data was collected through an online self-reporting survey distributed on social networks, with 240 participants (aged 21-65) recruited through convenience and snowball sampling methods from various organizational sectors. The results of the present study support the hypotheses and constitute a basis for future debate regarding the elements of burnout in the modern work environment, with an emphasis on subjective temporal experience. Our findings point to the importance of chronic and stable temporal experiences, as time pressure and time perspective, in occupational experience. The findings are also discussed with a view to the development of practical methods of burnout prevention.

Keywords: conservation of resources, burnout, time pressure, time perspective

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6603 Thorium Resources of Georgia – Is It Its Future Energy ?

Authors: Avtandil Okrostsvaridze, Salome Gogoladze

Abstract:

In the light of exhaustion of hydrocarbon reserves of new energy resources, its search is of vital importance problem for the modern civilization. At the time of energy resource crisis, the radioactive element thorium (232Th) is considered as the main energy resource for the future of our civilization. Modern industry uses thorium in high-temperature and high-tech tools, but the most important property of thorium is that like uranium it can be used as fuel in nuclear reactors. However, thorium has a number of advantages compared to this element: Its concentration in the earth crust is 4-5 times higher than uranium; extraction and enrichment of thorium is much cheaper than of uranium; it is less radioactive; its waste products complete destruction is possible; thorium yields much more energy than uranium. Nowadays, developed countries, among them India and China, have started intensive work for creation of thorium nuclear reactors and intensive search for thorium reserves. It is not excluded that in the next 10 years these reactors will completely replace uranium reactors. Thorium ore mineralization is genetically related to alkaline-acidic magmatism. Thorium accumulations occur as in endogen marked as in exogenous conditions. Unfortunately, little is known about the reserves of this element in Georgia, as planned prospecting-exploration works of thorium have never been carried out here. Although, 3 ore occurrences of this element are detected: 1) In the Greater Caucasus Kakheti segment, in the hydrothermally altered rocks of the Lower Jurassic clay-shales, where thorium concentrations varied between 51 - 3882g/t; 2) In the eastern periphery of the Dzirula massif, in the hydrothermally alteration rocks of the cambrian quartz-diorite gneisses, where thorium concentrations varied between 117-266 g/t; 3) In active contact zone of the Eocene volcanites and syenitic intrusive in Vakijvari ore field of the Guria region, where thorium concentrations varied between 185 – 428 g/t. In addition, geological settings of the areas, where thorium occurrences were fixed, give a theoretical basis on possible accumulation of practical importance thorium ores. Besides, the Black Sea Guria region magnetite sand which is transported from Vakijvari ore field, should contain significant reserves of thorium. As the research shows, monazite (thorium containing mineral) is involved in magnetite in the form of the thinnest inclusions. The world class thorium deposit concentrations of this element vary within the limits of 50-200 g/t. Accordingly, on the basis of these data, thorium resources found in Georgia should be considered as perspective ore deposits. Generally, we consider that complex investigation of thorium should be included into the sphere of strategic interests of the state, because future energy of Georgia, will probably be thorium.

Keywords: future energy, Georgia, ore field, thorium

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6602 Fashion Accessory and Its Future: Design for Sustainability Applied to the Design Process as a Potential Approach

Authors: Trinh Bui, A. Cappellieri

Abstract:

The fashion industry has become one of the most polluting industries in the world. In this context, designers can contribute solutions to the problem by applying Design for Sustainability (DfS) criteria, which will enable to promote designing products and services toward Sustainability. Therefore, 'Slow Fashion' movement has been receiving the attention of researchers, designers, and customers who are sensitive to sustainable development. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of DfS in fashion. In particular, how can apply sustainable design principles to the fashion accessory in order to minimize the negative impact on the environment and society? The research method of this study is qualitative, utilising a multi-method case study approach. Grounded theory analysis was applied to analyse the data of the case studies collected and the results obtained. Also, research findings indicate that DfS applied to Fashion Accessory design processes might have great potential and win-win approaches toward a sustainable future. An important implication is that understanding the concepts and applying DfS to fashion accessory design processes can support designers to face challenges and seize opportunities. Furthermore, identify the key concept of sustainability and social responsibility could raise awareness on sustainable fashion for both producers and customers more effectively.

Keywords: design for sustainability, fashion accessory, sustainable fashion, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
6601 Organic Agriculture in Pakistan: Opportunities, Challenges, and Future Directions

Authors: Sher Ali

Abstract:

Organic agriculture has gained significant momentum globally as a sustainable and environmentally friendly farming practice. In Pakistan, amidst growing concerns about food security, environmental degradation, and health issues related to conventional farming methods, the adoption of organic agriculture presents a promising pathway for agricultural development. This abstract aims to provide an overview of the status, opportunities, challenges, and future directions of organic agriculture in Pakistan. It delves into the current state of organic farming practices, including the extent of adoption, key crops cultivated, and the regulatory framework governing organic certification. Furthermore, the abstract discusses the unique opportunities that Pakistan offers for organic agriculture, such as its diverse agro-climatic zones, rich biodiversity, and traditional farming knowledge. It highlights successful initiatives and case studies that showcase the potential of organic farming to improve rural livelihoods, enhance food security, and promote sustainable agricultural practices. However, the abstract also addresses the challenges hindering the widespread adoption of organic agriculture in Pakistan, ranging from limited awareness and technical know-how among farmers to inadequate infrastructure and market linkages. It emphasizes the need for supportive policies, capacity-building programs, and investment in research and extension services to overcome these challenges and promote the growth of the organic agriculture sector. Lastly, the abstract outlines future directions and recommendations for advancing organic agriculture in Pakistan, including strategies for scaling up production, strengthening certification mechanisms, and fostering collaboration among stakeholders. By shedding light on the opportunities, challenges, and potential of organic agriculture in Pakistan, this abstract aims to contribute to the discourse on sustainable farming practices at the upcoming Agro Conference in the USA. It invites participants to engage in dialogue, share experiences, and explore avenues for collaboration toward promoting organic agriculture for a healthier, more resilient food system.

Keywords: agriculture, challenges, organic, Pakistan

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