Search results for: firm risk
6047 Comparison between Deterministic and Probabilistic Stability Analysis, Featuring Consequent Risk Assessment
Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz
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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management.Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 3756046 Assessing the Risk of Condensation and Moisture Accumulation in Solid Walls: Comparing Different Internal Wall Insulation Options
Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat
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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging
Procedia PDF Downloads 1556045 Risk Assessment and Management Using Machine Learning Models
Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh
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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion
Procedia PDF Downloads 576044 Determination of the Bank's Customer Risk Profile: Data Mining Applications
Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge
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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.Keywords: client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3296043 Hidden Critical Risk in the Construction Industry’s Technological Adoption: Cybercrime
Authors: Nuruddeen Usman, Usman Mohammed Gidado, Muhammad Ahmad Ibrahim
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Construction industry is one of the sectors that are eyeing adoption of ICT for its development due to the advancement in technology. Though, many manufacturing sectors had been using it, but construction industry was left behind, especially in the developing nation like Nigeria. On account of that, the objective of this study is to conceptually and quantitatively synthesise whether the slow adoption of ICT by the construction industries can be attributable to cybercrime threats. The result of the investigation found that, the risk of cybercrime, and lack of adequate cyber security policies that can enforce and punish defaulters are among the things that hinder ICT adoption of the Nigerian construction industries. Therefore, there is need for the nations to educate their citizens on cybercrime risk, and to establish cybercrime police units that can be monitoring and controlling all online communications.Keywords: construction industry, cybercrime, information and communication technology adoption, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 4986042 From Risk/Security Analysis via Timespace to a Model of Human Vulnerability and Human Security
Authors: Anders Troedsson
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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace
Procedia PDF Downloads 2836041 Role of Desire in Risk-Perception: A Case Study of Syrian Refugees’ Migration towards Europe
Authors: Lejla Sunagic
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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration
Procedia PDF Downloads 856040 Risk Assessment of Heavy Rainfall and Development of Damage Prediction Function for Gyeonggi-Do Province
Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim
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Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR
Procedia PDF Downloads 1936039 Unhealthy Food Consumption Behavior in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat Universities
Authors: Narumon Piaseu
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This survey research was aimed to describe and compare consumption behavior of health risk food among students in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Sample included 400 undergraduate students enrolled in the first semester of 2008 academic year. Data were collected by using self reported questionnaire developed by the researcher. Data were then analyzed by descriptive statistics including frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics including independent t-test, and Oneway ANOVA. Results revealed that most of the sample were women (67%), enrolled in social related programs (74%). Approximately half of them (45.5%) stayed in dormitory. The mean of monthly income was 5,164 Baht and daily food expenditure was 114.55 Baht. Majority of them (83%) had ready-to-eat food. A major factor influencing their food selection was their parents (61%). A main reason for their food selection was food that looks good (70.75%). Almost half of them (46.25%) had heavy exercise less than 3 times per week. Regarding knowledge on health risk food, 43.5% of the sample had good knowledge. The followings were moderate (41%) and poor (41%). Most of the sample (60.75%) had consumption behavior at low risk. The following was at moderate risk (37.25%). Only 2% were at high risk. Among the sample, consumption behavior of health risk food were significantly different in years of study (F = 3.168, p = .024), daily food expenditure (F = 8.950, p <.001), and knowledge on health risk food (F = 37.856, p <.001), while no significant difference in consumption behavior of health risk food was found in those with a difference in gender, program of study, living place, and monthly income. Results indicate the importance of providing knowledge regarding health risk food for students and their parents in order to promote appropriate food consumption behavior among the students.Keywords: food consumption, risky behavior, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, health risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 4636038 Exploring the Effect of Accounting Information on Systematic Risk: An Empirical Evidence of Tehran Stock Exchange
Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari
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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE
Procedia PDF Downloads 1246037 Railway Accidents: Using the Global Railway Accident Database and Evaluation for Risk Analysis
Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch
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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3546036 Schedule Risk Management for Complex Projects: The Royal Research Ship: Sir David Attenborough Case Study
Authors: Chatelier Charlene, Oyegoke Adekunle, Ajayi Saheed, Jeffries Andrew
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This study seeks to understand Schedule Risk Assessments as a priori for better performance whilst exploring the strategies employed to deliver complex projects like the New Polar research ship. This high-profile vessel was offered to Natural Environment Research Council and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) by Cammell Laird Shipbuilders. The Research Ship was designed to support science in extreme environments, with the expectancy to provide a wide range of specialist scientific facilities, instruments, and laboratories to conduct research over multiple disciplines. Aim: The focus is to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk on such a Major Project. Hypothesising that "effective management of schedule risk management" could be the most critical factor in determining whether the intended benefits mentioned are delivered within time and cost constraints. Objective 1: Firstly, the study seeks to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk in Major Projects. Objective 2: Secondly, it explores "effective management of schedule risk management" as the most critical factor determining the delivery of intended benefits. Methodology: This study takes a retrospective review of schedule risk management and how it influences project performance using a case study approach for the RRS (Royal Research Ship) Sir David Attenborough. Research Contribution: The outcomes of this study will contribute to a better understanding of project performance whilst building on its under-researched relationship to schedule risk management for complex projects. The outcomes of this paper will guide further research on project performance and enable the understanding of how risk-based estimates over time impact the overall risk management of the project.Keywords: complexity, major projects, performance management, schedule risk management, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 876035 Success Factors and Challenges of Startup Businesses in a Crisis Context
Authors: Joanna Konstantinou
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The study is about the challenges faced by entrepreneurs in a crisis context and in turbulent economies. The scope is to determine which factors, if any, are related to the success of a new business venture, such as innovation, access to funding and capital, enhanced digital skills, employment relations and organizational culture as well as a company’s strategic orientation towards international markets. The crisis context has been recorded to have affected the number of SMEs in the Greek economy, the number of people employed as well as the volume of the output produced. Although not all SMEs have been equally impacted by the crisis, which has been identified to affect certain sectors more than others, and although research is not exhaustive in that end, employment relations and patterns, firm’s age, and innovation practices in relation to employees’ learning curve seem to have a positive correlation with the successful survival and resilience of the firm. The aim is to identify important factors that can contribute positively to the success of a startup business, and that will allow businesses to acquire resilience and survive economic adversities, and it will focus on businesses of the Greek economy, the country with the longer lasting economic crisis and the findings will be lessons to learn for other economies.Keywords: entrepreneurship, innovation, crisis, challenges
Procedia PDF Downloads 2276034 Quality of the Ruin Probabilities Approximation Using the Regenerative Processes Approach regarding to Large Claims
Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani
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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 3506033 Urban Flood Risk Mapping–a Review
Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau
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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping
Procedia PDF Downloads 5766032 Potential Ecological Risk Index of the Northern Egyptian Lagoons, South of Mediterranean Sea, Egypt
Authors: Mohamed El-Bady
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The Northern Egyptian Lagoons are (from east to west) Bardawil Lagoon, Manzala Lagoon, Burullus Lagoon, Edku Lagoons and Mariute Lagoon. These lagoons have been received the bulk of drainage water from the lands of Delta and from the other coastal areas. Where, the heavy metals can occur in Lagoons environments through a variety of sources, including industries, wastewaters and domestic effluents. The potential ecological risk index (RI) calculation of the bottom sediments of the northern lagoons depends on contamination factor (CF), potential ecological risk factor and proposed toxic response factor (Tr). Each lagoon with special indices according to its conditions.Keywords: Northern Lagoons, Nile Delta, ecological risk index, contamination factor
Procedia PDF Downloads 3326031 Modelling Operational Risk Using Extreme Value Theory and Skew t-Copulas via Bayesian Inference
Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira
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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas
Procedia PDF Downloads 5896030 Risk Management in Islamic Banks: A Case Study of the Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt
Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien
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This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.Keywords: conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 4506029 The Use of Coronary Calcium Scanning for Cholesterol Assessment and Management
Authors: Eva Kirzner
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Based on outcome studies published over the past two decades, in 2018, the ACC/AHA published new guidelines for the management of hypercholesterolemia that incorporate the use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning as a decision tool for ascertaining which patients may benefit from statin therapy. This use is based on the recognition that the absence of calcium on CAC scanning (i.e., a CAC score of zero) usually signifies the absence of significant atherosclerotic deposits in the coronary arteries. Specifically, in patients with a high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), initiation of statin therapy is generally recommended to decrease ASCVD risk. However, among patients with intermediate ASCVD risk, the need for statin therapy is less certain. However, there is a need for new outcome studies that provide evidence that the management of hypercholesterolemia based on these new ACC/AHA recommendations is safe for patients. Based on a Pub-Med and Google Scholar literature search, four relevant population-based or patient-based cohort studies that studied the relationship between CAC scanning, risk assessment or mortality, and statin therapy that were published between 2017 and 2021 were identified (see references). In each of these studies, patients were assessed for their baseline risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) using the Pooled Cohorts Equation (PCE), an ACC/AHA calculator for determining patient risk based on assessment of patient age, gender, ethnicity, and coronary artery disease risk factors. The combined findings of these four studies provided concordant evidence that a zero CAC score defines patients who remain at low clinical risk despite the non-use of statin therapy. Thus, these new studies confirm the use of CAC scanning as a safe tool for reducing the potential overuse of statin therapy among patients with zero CAC scores. Incorporating these new data suggest the following best practice: (1) ascertain ASCVD risk according to the PCE in all patients; (2) following an initial attempt trial to lower ASCVD risk with optimal diet among patients with elevated ASCVD risk, initiate statin therapy for patients who have a high ASCVD risk score; (3) if the ASCVD score is intermediate, refer patients for CAC scanning; and (4) and if the CAC score is zero among the intermediate risk ASCVD patients, statin therapy can be safely withheld despite the presence of an elevated serum cholesterol level.Keywords: cholesterol, cardiovascular disease, statin therapy, coronary calcium
Procedia PDF Downloads 1026028 Planning a Supply Chain with Risk and Environmental Objectives
Authors: Ghanima Al-Sharrah, Haitham M. Lababidi, Yusuf I. Ali
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The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.Keywords: environmental indicators, optimization, risk, supply chain
Procedia PDF Downloads 3426027 Simplifying Health Risk Assessment (HRA) and Its Operationalisation for Turnaround Activities
Authors: Thirumila Muthukamaru
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The objective of a Health Risk Assessment (HRA) is to achieve a quality evaluation of risk assessments in a timely manner where adequate controls can be in place to protect workers health, especially during turnarounds where the exposure to health hazards is expected to rise during the performance of the many activities that take place, exposing workers to health risk. HRA development requires a competent team comprising experienced subject matter experts in the field, such as Industrial hygienists, Occupational Health Doctors, Turnaround Coordinators, Operation / Maintenance personnel, etc. The conventional way of conducting HRA is not only tedious and time-consuming but also less appreciated when it is not interpreted correctly, which may contribute to inadequate operationalization of it. Simplification can be the essence of timely intervention in managing health risks. This paper is intended as a sharing of the approach taken to simplify the methodology of developing the HRA report and operationalizing it. The approach includes developing a Generic HRA for turnaround activities to be used as a reference document and the empowerment of identified personnel through upskilling sessions to take up the role of facilitating HRA sessions. This empowerment is one of the key approaches towards the successful translation of the HRA into specific turnaround Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) that embed it in the Permit to Work (PTW) process. The approach used here increases awareness and compliance on HRA for turnaround activities through better interpretation and operationalization of the HRA report, adding value to the risk assessment for turnaround activities.Keywords: industrial hygiene, health risk assessment, HRA, risk assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 336026 Information Technology (IT) Outsourcing and the Challenges of Implementation in Financial Industries: A Case Study of Guarantee Trust Assurance PLC
Authors: Salim Ahmad, Ahamed Sani Kazaure, Haruna Musa
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Outsourcing had been the contractual relationship in which the responsibility for a function or task is handed over to an outside firm for a fixed period of time which is not the same as contracting where a specific one-off task is allocated to an external business; therefore in information technology a specialist area such as maintenance of web servers is controlled by an outside firm or if the department is not a critical factor the whole IT section may be outsourced. Organisation contracts is frequently a major area in successful outsourcing relationship, whereby the contracts specify the right, liability and expectation of the vendor and contracts are mostly of high value and last for very long. Therefore, in this research one particular project that is been outsourced for the financial industry (Guarantee Trust Assurance PlC) is been discussed along with the approach used and the various problems encountered, though Outsourcing is not necessarily a perfect and easy way out for business. It is extremely critical for a company to look at all the aspect of outsourcing before deciding to use it as an instrument for development. Moreover, critical analysis of the management issues encountered while implementing the outsourcing project have been fully discussed in the paper.Keywords: outsourcing, techniques used in outsourcing, challenges of outsourcing implementation, management issues during implementation of outsourcing project
Procedia PDF Downloads 3656025 The Determinants of Financial Ratio Disclosures and Quality: Evidence from an Emerging Market
Authors: Ben Kwame Agyei-Mensah
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This study investigated the influence of firm-specific characteristics which include proportion of Non-Executive Directors, ownership concentration, firm size, profitability, debt equity ratio, liquidity and leverage on the extent and quality of financial ratios disclosed by firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange. The research was conducted through detailed analysis of the 2012 financial statements of the listed firms. Descriptive analysis was performed to provide the background statistics of the variables examined. This was followed by regression analysis which forms the main data analysis. The results of the extent of financial ratio disclosure level, mean of 62.78%, indicate that most of the firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange did not overwhelmingly disclose such ratios in their annual reports. The results of the low quality of financial ratio disclosure mean of 6.64% indicate that the disclosures failed woefully to meet the International Accounting Standards Board's qualitative characteristics of relevance, reliability, comparability and understandability. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that leverage (gearing ratio) and return on investment (dividend per share) are associated on a statistically significant level as far as the extent of financial ratio disclosure is concerned. Board ownership concentration and proportion of (independent) non-executive directors, on the other hand were found to be statistically associated with the quality of financial ratio disclosed. There is a significant negative relationship between ownership concentration and the quality of financial ratio disclosure. This means that under a higher level of ownership concentration less quality financial ratios are disclosed. The findings also show that there is a significant positive relationship between board composition (proportion of non-executive directors) and the quality of financial ratio disclosure.Keywords: voluntary disclosure, firm-specific characteristics, financial reporting, financial ratio disclosure, Ghana stock exchange
Procedia PDF Downloads 5816024 Influence Analysis of Profit Sharing Agreement and Financing Risk to Profitability in Islamic Bank of Indonesia
Authors: Irena Paramita Pramono
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Islamic bank is a financial industry with huge potential to grow in Indonesia. Profit-sharing agreement in the operations of Islamic banks distinguishes Islamic banks with conventional banks. Profit-sharing agreement allows sharing of benefits and risks between shahibul maal and mudharib in islamic bank. This study aimed to observe the patterns of influence between the risk-sharing agreement, financing risk and Profitability in Islamic banks. This research used several Islamic banks as sample and path analysis method. The empirical results of this research shows that the profit-sharing agreement in deposits structure has no direct significant effect to ROA, but it has indirect effect to ROA through profit-sharing financing. On the other hand, profit-sharing financing has direct and indirect influence to ROA through financing risk. This research shows that profit-sharing financing has a positive significant effect to the financing risk and also to the ROA. The research recommends Islamic banks to continue using and developing profit-sharing agreement in its operational activities, hence to create value.Keywords: Islamic bank, profit-loss sharing agreement, financing risk, profitability
Procedia PDF Downloads 7966023 Entrepreneurial Orientation and Innovation Outcomes in Ghanaian Social Enterprises: Interaction Effect of Organizational Unlearning
Authors: Stephen Oduro
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With a quantitative research design, this study seeks to analyze how, an intangible resource, Organisational Unlearning shapes the relationship between Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) and Innovation Outcomes among social entrepreneurship organizations in Ghana. The Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm and EO-Performance Contingency framework was adopted as the underpinning theories of the study. Entrepreneurial Orientation dimensions, namely Innovativeness, Autonomy, Risk-Taking, Proactiveness, and Competitive aggressiveness were examined to determine its significant, direct influence on the Innovation Outcomes of the social enterprises in Ghana. Organizational Unlearning dimensions, specifically examination of lens fitting, the consolidation of emergent understandings, and framework for changing individual habits were explored to determine whether they strengthen or weaken the direct nexus between Entrepreneurial Orientation dimensions and Innovation Outcomes. A self-administered questionnaire was administered to 556 targeted social enterprises across Africa through online questionnaire platform and the data generated and proposed hypotheses were analyzed and tested using Structural Equation Model-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS 3) statistical tool. The findings revealed that EO dimensions, specifically proactiveness, autonomy, innovativeness, and risk-taking are positively related to IO, but we found no significant support for competitive aggressiveness. The findings, moreover, divulged that the positive, direct relationship between EO and IO is highly strengthened by OU. It is concluded that OU fully moderates the direct link between EO and IO. The present study contributes to the our understanding of the interrelationship among Entrepreneurial Orientation, Organizational Unlearning, and Innovation Outcomes in the social entrepreneurship context.Keywords: entrepreneurial orientation, innovation outcomes, organizational unlearning, RBV, SEM-PLS, social enterprise, Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 1266022 The Influence of Remuneration Committees, Directors' Shareholding and Institutional Ownership on the Remuneration of Directors in the Large Listed Companies in South Africa
Authors: Henriette Scholtz
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Excessive executive directors’ remuneration remains a major concern for many stakeholders and are some of the factors to blame for the recent global financial crisis. The objective of this study was to examine whether certain firm characteristics are an effective way of protecting shareholders’ interests with respect to executive directors’ remuneration. To achieve this, an ordinary least squares model was used to test the relationship between the remuneration of executive directors and a number of firm and corporate governance characteristics to determine whether these characteristics have an influence on executive directors’ remuneration of large listed companies in South Africa. It was found that corporate governance reforms relating to institutional ownership, shareholder voting on the remuneration policy and the number of remuneration committee meetings acts as an effective governance tool to protect shareholder’s interests with regard to executive remuneration. There is no evidence that the number of non-executive directors on the remuneration committee has an influence on the executive directors’ remuneration.Keywords: executive directors’ remuneration, agency theory, corporate governance, remuneration committee, directors’ shareholding, institutional ownership
Procedia PDF Downloads 1966021 Human Health Risks Assessment of Particulate Air Pollution in Romania
Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep
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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect
Procedia PDF Downloads 1556020 Board of Directors Gender Diversity, Board Committees and Financial Performance: Evidence from Nigeria
Authors: Aliyu Aminu Baba, Yahaya Danjuma, Ahmad Sule Liman-Katagum
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This paper examines the effects of the board of directors’ diversity on firm performance. We investigate the relationship between the number of women directors on the board and important board committees and financial performance measured as return on assets. Our statistical analysis supports the theoretical position of the effect diversity on financial performance. These studies enhanced the previous studies on the board of director’s gender diversity, board committees, and its impacts on firm financial performance. The study uses data from eighteen (18) Nigerian commercial banks. The study finds that banks with a higher number of females directors on board and board committees have higher Earning per share(EPS)) and Return on Assets (ROA). It also finds that some banks did not even have a single female on its corporate board. Evidence imply that decisions concerning the appointment of women to corporate boards should be on criteria and financial performance. It is recommended that banks can enhance their financial performance by having more female directors on their corporate board.Keywords: board of directors, gender diversity, board committees, financial performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 3076019 A Comparative Study of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) Model in Modeling Value-at-Risk (VaR)
Authors: Longqing Li
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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting
Procedia PDF Downloads 3146018 Exploring Disruptive Innovation Capacity Effects on Firm Performance: An Investigation in Industries 4.0
Authors: Selma R. Oliveira, E. W. Cazarini
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Recently, studies have referenced innovation as a key factor affecting the performance of firms. Companies make use of its innovative capacities to achieve sustainable competitive advantage. In this perspective, the objective of this paper is to contribute to innovation planning policies in industry 4.0. Thus, this paper examines the disruptive innovation capacity on firm performance in Europe. This procedure was prepared according to the following phases: Phase 1: Determination of the conceptual model; and Phase 2: Verification of the conceptual model. The research was initially conducted based on the specialized literature, which extracted the data regarding the constructs/structure and content in order to build the model. The research involved the intervention of experts knowledgeable on the object studied, selected by technical-scientific criteria. The data were extracted using an assessment matrix. To reduce subjectivity in the results achieved the following methods were used complementarily and in combination: multicriteria analysis, multivariate analysis, psychometric scaling and neurofuzzy technology. The data were extracted using an assessment matrix and the results were satisfactory, validating the modeling approach.Keywords: disruptive innovation, capacity, performance, Industry 4.0
Procedia PDF Downloads 155