Search results for: climate scenario

Authors: Remus Pravalie, Georgeta Bandoc

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Forests are crucial for humanity and biodiversity, through the various ecosystem services and functions they provide all over the world. Forest ecosystems are vital in Romania as well, through their various benefits, known as provisioning (food, wood, or fresh water), regulating (water purification, soil protection, carbon sequestration or control of climate change, floods, and other hazards), cultural (aesthetic, spiritual, inspirational, recreational or educational benefits) and supporting (primary production, nutrient cycling, and soil formation processes, with direct or indirect importance for human well-being) ecosystem services. These ecological benefits are of great importance in Romania, especially given the fact that forests cover extensive areas countrywide, i.e. ~6.5 million ha or ~27.5% of the national territory. However, the diversity and functionality of these ecosystem services fundamentally depend on certain key attributes of forests, such as biomass, which has so far not been studied nationally in terms of potential changes due to climate change and other driving forces. This study investigates, for the first time, changes in forest biomass in Romania in recent decades, based on a high volume of satellite data (Landsat images at high spatial resolutions), downloaded from the Google Earth Engine platform and processed (using specialized software and methods) across Romanian forestland boundaries from 1987 to 2018. A complex climate database was also investigated across Romanian forests over the same 32-year period, in order to detect potential similarities and statistical relationships between the dynamics of biomass and climate data. The results obtained indicated considerable changes in forest biomass in Romania in recent decades, largely triggered by the climate change that affected the country after 1987. Findings on the complex pattern of recent forest changes in Romania, which will be presented in detail in this study, can be useful to national policymakers in the fields of forestry, climate, and sustainable development.

Keywords: forests, biomass, climate change, trends, romania

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Iara Rezende, Djalma Silva, Alcino Costa Neto

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Considering the transformations of the contemporary world linked to globalization and climate changes caused by global warming, the environmental and energy issues have been increasingly present in the decisions of the world scenario. Thus, the aim of reducing the impacts caused by human activities there are the energy efficiency measures, which are also applicable in the scope of Civil Engineering. Considering that a large part of the energy demand from buildings is related to the need to adapt the internal environment to the users comfort and productivity, measures capable of reducing this need can minimize the climate changes impacts and also the energy consumption of the building. However, these important measures are currently little used by civil engineers, either because of the interdisciplinarity of the subject, the time required to apply certain methods or the difficult interpretation of the results obtained by computational programs that often have a complex and little applied approach. Thus, it was proposed the development of a Java application with a simpler and applied approach to evaluate the thermal performance of a building in order to obtain results capable of assisting the civil engineers in the decision making related to the users thermal comfort. The program was built in Java programming language and the method used for the evaluation was the Center Scientifique et Technique du Batiment (CSTB) method. The program was used to evaluate the thermal performance of a university classroom. The analysis was carried out from simulations considering the worst climatic situation of the building occupation. Thus, at the end of the process, the favorable result was obtained regarding the classroom comfort zone and the feasibility of using the program, thus achieving the proposed objectives.

Keywords: building occupation, CSTB method, energy efficiency measures, Java application, thermal comfort

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Deepak Loura

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Climate change is considered one of the major environmental problems of the 21st century and a lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as the threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting a negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of the natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (NO) are important biogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the agricultural sector contributing to global warming and their concentration is increasing alarmingly. Agricultural productivity can be affected by climate change in 2 ways: first, directly, by affecting plant growth development and yield due to changes in rainfall/precipitation and temperature and/or CO₂ levels, and second, indirectly, there may be considerable impact on agricultural land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation, frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter transformations, soil erosion, distribution and frequency of infestation by insect pests, diseases or weeds, the decline in arable areas (due to submergence of coastal lands), and availability of energy. An increase in atmospheric CO₂ promotes the growth and productivity of C3 plants. On the other hand, an increase in temperature, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, affect the equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralization in soils, decrease fertilizer- use efficiencies, and increase evapotranspiration among others. All these could considerably affect crop yield in long run. Climate resilient agriculture consisting of adaptation, mitigation, and other agriculture practices can potentially enhance the capacity of the system to withstand climate-related disturbances by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Climate resilient agriculture turns the climate change threats that have to be tackled into new business opportunities for the sector in different regions and therefore provides a triple win: mitigation, adaptation, and economic growth. Improving the soil organic carbon stock of soil is integral to any strategy towards adapting to and mitigating the abrupt climate change, advancing food security, and improving the environment. Soil carbon sequestration is one of the major mitigation strategies to achieve climate-resilient agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation before it might affect global crop production drastically. To cope with these extreme changes, future development needs to make adjustments in technology, management practices, and legislation. Adaptation and mitigation are twin approaches to bringing resilience to climate change in agriculture.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, crop production, climate resilient agriculture

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Authors: Jongho Park, Taekyun Kim, Jinwoong Choi, Sungnam Hong, Sun-Kyu Park

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Recently, the climate change is the one of the main problems. This abnormal phenomenon is consisted of the scorching heat, heavy rain and snowfall, and cold wave that will be enlarged abnormal climate change repeatedly. Accordingly, the width of temperature change is increased more and more by abnormal climate, and it is the main factor of cracking in the reinforced concrete. The crack of the reinforced concrete will affect corrosion of steel re-bar which can decrease durability of the structure easily. Hence, the elimination of the durability weakening factor (steel re-bar) is needed. Textile which weaves the carbon, AR-glass and aramid fiber has been studied actively for exchanging the steel re-bar in the Europe for about 15 years because of its good durability. To apply textile as the concrete reinforcement, the bond strength between concrete and textile will be investigated closely. Therefore, in this paper, pull-out test was performed with change of development length of textile. Significant load and stress was increasing at D80. But, bond stress decreased by increasing development length.

Keywords: bond strength, climate change, pull-out test, substitution of reinforcement material, textile

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Authors: Ali M. Subyani

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The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western, Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier. This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.

Keywords: climate change, daily rainfall, dry and wet spill, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Sonia Zulfiqar, Daniele Mantione, Muhammad Ilyas Sarwar, Alexander Rothenberger, David Mecerreyes

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Climate change due to escalating carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is an issue of paramount importance that needs immediate attention. CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) is a promising route to mitigate climate change and adsorption is the most widely recognized technology owing to possible energy savings relative to the conventional absorption techniques. In this conference, the potential of a new family of solid sorbents for CO2 capture and separation will be presented. Novel pyridinium containing poly(ionic liquid)s (PILs) were synthesized with varying anions i.e bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide and hexafluorophosphate. The resulting polymers were characterized using NMR, XRD, TGA, BET surface area and microscopic techniques. Furthermore, CO2 adsorption measurements at two different temperatures were also carried out and revealed great potential of these PILs as CO2 scavengers.

Keywords: climate change, CO2 capture, poly(ionic liquid)s, CO2/N2 selectivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Kimuli Ismail, Michael Lubwama, John Baptist Kirabira, Adam Sebbit

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This study develops 4 energy scenarios for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). GKMA is Uganda’s capital with a population of 4.1million and a GDP growth rate of 5.8 with a nonsustainable energy management system. The study uses TIMES-VEDA to examine the energy impacts of business as usual (BAU), Kabejja, Carbon-Tax, and Lutta scenarios in commercial, industrial, transportation, residential, agricultural, and electricity generation activities. BAU is the baseline scenario with limited CO2 emissions restrictions against which Kabejja with 20% CO2 emissions restriction, a carbon tax of $100/ton imposed in 2050 for Carbon-Tax scenario, and Lutta with 95% CO2 emissions restriction is made. The analysis suggests that if the current policy trends continue as BAU, consumption would increase from 139.6PJ to 497.42PJ and CO2 emissions will increase from 4.6mtns to 7mtns. However, consumption would decrease by 2.3% in Kabejja, 3.4% in Carbon-Tax, and 3.3 % in Lutta compared to BAU. The CO2 emissions would decrease by 8.57% in Kabejja, 55.14% in Carbon-Tax, and 60% in Lutta compared to BAU. Sustainability is achievable when low-carbon electricity is increased by 53.68% in the EMS, and setting up an electrified Kampala metro. The study recommends Lutta as the sustainable pathway to a lowcarbon 2050.

Keywords: Sustainability, Scenario Plannnig, Times-Veda Modelling, Energy Policy Development

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Authors: M. A. Wanzala, L. A. Ogallo, F. J. Opijah, J. N. Mutemi

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The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. For any given region to have sustainable development it is important to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans. The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The datasets used included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and hindcast data from eight CMIP5. The methodology included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score. Analysis of the trends in the observed rainfall records indicated an increase in rainfall variability both in space and time for all the seasons. The spatial patterns of the individual models output from the models of MPI, MIROC, EC-EARTH and CNRM were closest to the observed rainfall patterns.

Keywords: categorical statistics, coupled model inter-comparison project, principal component analysis, statistical downscaling

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Authors: Sherine Farouk, Fauzia Jabeen

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The purpose of this study is to examine the role played by ethical climate and CSR on organizational performance in public sector organizations. In particular, the research will shed light on the link between formalized ethical procedures and employee responses including corporate social responsibility, and organizational performance among public sector employees. Data was collected from 425 employees working in public sector organizations in Abu Dhabi, the capital of United Arab Emirates. Structural Equation Modeling will be used to test the proposed hypotheses. The paper contributes to the literature by being one of the first to study CSR and ethical climate within a Middle Eastern context, and will offer important implications for theory and practice.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, ethical climate, organizational performance, United Arab Emirates

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Authors: Tung-Kuang Wu, Hsing-Pei Hsieh, Ying-Ru Meng

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Special Education in Taiwan has been facing difficulties including shortage of teachers and lack in resources. Some students need to receive special education are thus not identified or admitted. Fortunately, information technologies can be applied to relieve some of the difficulties. For example, on-line multimedia courseware can be used to assist the learning of special education students and take pretty much workload from special education teachers. However, there may exist cognitive variations between students in special or regular educations, which suggests the design of online courseware requires different considerations. This study aims to investigate the difference in focus of attention (FOA) between special and regular education students of primary school in viewing the computer screen. The study is essential as it helps courseware developers in determining where to put learning elements that matter the most on the right position of screen. It may also assist special education specialists to better understand the subtle differences among various subtypes of learning disabilities. This study involves 76 special education students (among them, 39 are students with mental retardation, MR, and 37 are students with learning disabilities, LDs) and 42 regular education students. The participants were asked to view a computer screen showing a picture partitioned into 3 × 3 areas with each area filled with text or icon. The subjects were then instructed to mark on the prior given paper sheets, which are also partitioned into 3 × 3 grids, the areas corresponding to the pictures on the computer screen that they first set their eyes on. The data are then collected and analyzed. Major findings are listed: 1. In both text and icon scenario, significant differences exist in the first preferred FOA between special and regular education students. The first FOA for the former is mainly on area 1 (upper left area, 53.8% / 51.3% for MR / LDs students in text scenario; and 53.8% / 56.8% for MR / LDs students in icons scenario), while the latter on area 5 (middle area, 50.0% and 57.1% in text and icons scenarios). 2. The second most preferred area in text scenario for students with MR and LDs are area 2 (upper-middle, 20.5%) and 5 (middle area, 24.3%). In icons scenario, the results are similar, but lesser in percentage. 3. Students with LDs that show similar preference (either in text or icons scenarios) in FOA to regular education students tend to be of some specific sub-type of learning disabilities. For instance, students with LDs that chose area 5 (middle area, either in text or icon scenario) as their FOA are mostly ones that have reading or writing disability. Also, three (out of 13) subjects in this category, after going through the rediagnosis process, were excluded from being learning disabilities. In summary, the findings suggest when designing multimedia courseware for students with MR and LDs, the essential learning elements should be placed on area 1, 2 and 5. In addition, FOV preference may also potentially be used as an indicator for diagnosing students with LDs.

Keywords: focus of attention, learning disabilities, mental retardation, on-line multimedia courseware, special education

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Authors: Vojtěch Svěrák

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Climate change ethics have recently shifted away from individualistic paradigms towards concepts of shared or collective responsibility. Despite this evolving trend, a noticeable gap remains: a lack of research exclusively addressing the moral responsibility of specific unorganized social groups. The primary objective of the article is to fill this gap. The article employs the structuralist methodological approach proposed by some feminist philosophers, utilizing structural analysis to explain the existence of social groups. The argument is made for the integration of this framework with the so-called forward-looking Social Connection Model (SCM) of responsibility, which ascribes responsibilities to individuals based on their participation in social structures. The article offers an extension of this model to justify the responsibility of unorganized social groups. The major finding of the study is that although members of unorganized groups are loosely connected, collectively they instantiate specific external social structures, share social positioning, and the notion of responsibility could be based on that. Specifically, if the structure produces harm or perpetuates injustices, and the group both benefits from and possesses the capacity to significantly influence the structure, a greater degree of responsibility should be attributed to the group as a whole. This thesis is applied and justified within the context of climate change, based on the asymmetrical positioning of different social groups. Climate change creates a triple inequality: in contribution, vulnerability, and mitigation. The study posits that different degrees of group responsibility could be drawn from these inequalities. Two social groups serve as a case study for the article: first, the Pakistan lower class, consisting of people living below the national poverty line, with a low greenhouse gas emissions rate, severe climate change-related vulnerability due to the lack of adaptation measures, and with very limited options to participate in the mitigation of climate change. Second, the so-called polluter elite, defined by members' investments in polluting companies and high-carbon lifestyles, thus with an interest in the continuation of structures leading to climate change. The first identified group cannot be held responsible for climate change, but their group interest lies in structural change and should be collectively maintained. On the other hand, the responsibility of the second identified group is significant and can be fulfilled by a justified demand for some political changes. The proposed approach of group responsibility is suggested to help navigate climate justice discourse and environmental policies, thus helping with the sustainability transition.

Keywords: collective responsibility, climate justice, climate change ethics, group responsibility, social ontology, structural analysis

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Authors: Azadeh Rezafar

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Iran is one of the oldest countries with traditional culture in the world. All over the history Iranians had traditional architectural designs, which were at the same time sustainable, ecological, functional and environmental consistent. These human scale architectures were built for maximum use, comfort, climate adaptation with available resources and techniques. Climate variability of the country caused developing of variety design methods. More of these methods such as windcatchers in Yazd City or Panam (Insulation) were scientific solutions at the same time. Renewable energy resources were used in these methods that featured in them. While climate and ecological issues were dominant parts of these traditional designs, aesthetic and beauty issues were not ignored. Conformity with the community’s culture caused more compact designs that the visual aesthetics of them can be seen inside of them. Different organizations of space were used for these visual aesthetic issues inside the houses as well as historical urban designs. For example dry and hot climates in central parts of the country designed with centralized organization. Most central parts of these designs functioned as a courtyard for temperate the air in the summer. This paper will give summary descriptive information about traditional Iranian architectural style by figures all around the country with different climate conditions, while focus of the paper is traditional architectural design of the central part of the country, with dry and hot climate condition. This information may be useful for contemporary architectural designs, which are designed without noticing to the vernacular condition and caused cities look like each other.

Keywords: architectural design, traditional design, Iran, sustainability

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Authors: Thapa M., J.P. Dutta, K.R. Pandey, R.R. Kattel

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Nepal is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change. To mitigate the climate change effects on agricultural production and productivity a range of adaptive strategies needs to be considered. The study was conducted to assess organic paddy production as a coping strategy to the adverse impact of climate change in Phulbari, VDC of Chitwan district. Altogether, 120 respondents (60 adopters of organic farming and 60 from non adopter) were selected using snowball technique of sampling. Pre- tested interview schedule, direct observation, focus group discussion, key informant interview as well as secondary data were used to collect the required information. Factors determining the adoption of organic farming were found to be age, year of schooling, training, frequency of extension contact, perception about climate change, economically active members and poor. A unit increase in these factors except poor would increase the probability of adoption by 4.1%, 7.5%, 7.8%, 43.1%, 41.8% and 7% respectively. However, for poor, it would decrease the probability of adoption of organic farming by 5.1%. Average organic matter content in the adopters' field was higher (2.7%) than the non-adopters' field (2.5%). The regression result showed that type of farmer, price and area under rice cultivation had positive and significant relationship with income; however dependency ratio had negative relationship. As the year of adoption of organic farming increases, the production of rice decline in the first two years then after goes on increasing but the cost of production goes on decreasing with the year of adoption. The respondents adapted to the changing climate through diversification of crops, use of resistance varieties and following good cropping pattern. Gradually growing consumers' awareness about health, preference towards quality food products are the strong points behind organic farming, whereas lacks of bio-fertilizers, lack of effective extension services, no price differentiation between organic and inorganic products were the weak points. There is need for more training and education to change the attitude of farmers and enhance their confidence about the role of organic farming to cope with climate change impact.

Keywords: Organic farming, climate change, sustainable development

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Authors: Mediha B. Sılaydın Aydın, Emine D. Kahraman

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One of the important impacts of climate change is the sea level rise. Turkey is a peninsula, so the coastal areas of the country are threatened by the problem of sea level rise. Therefore, the urbanized coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change. At the aim of enhancing spatial resilience of urbanized areas, this question arises: What should be the priority intervention subject in the urban planning process for a given city. To answer this question, by focusing on the problem of sea level rise, this study aims to determine spatial vulnerability typologies and levels of Turkey coastal cities based on morphological, physical and social characteristics. As a method, spatial vulnerability of coastal cities is determined by two steps as level and type. Firstly, physical structure, morphological structure and social structure were examined in determining spatial vulnerability levels. By determining these levels, most vulnerable areas were revealed as a priority in adaptation studies. Secondly, all parameters are also used to determine spatial typologies. Typologies are determined for coastal cities in order to use as a base for urban planning studies. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for developing countries like Turkey so, this methodology and created typologies could be a guide for urban planners as spatial directors and an example for other developing countries in the context of adaptation to climate change. The results demonstrate that the urban settlements located on the coasts of the Marmara Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean respectively, are more vulnerable than the cities located on the Black Sea’s coasts to sea level rise.

Keywords: climate change, coastal cities, vulnerability, urban land use planning

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Authors: Funmilayo Sarah Eguakun, Peter Oluremi Adesoye

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One of the major problems being faced by human society is that the global temperature is believed to be rising due to human activity that releases carbon IV oxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Carbon IV oxide is the most important greenhouse gas influencing global warming and possible climate change. With climate change becoming alarming, reducing CO2 in our atmosphere has become a primary goal of international efforts. Forest landsare major sink and could absorb large quantities of carbon if the trees are judiciously managed. The study aims at estimating the carbon sequestration capacity of Pinus caribaea (pine)and Tectona grandis (Teak) under the prevailing environmental conditions and exploring tree growth variables that influencesthe carbon sequestration capacity in Omo Forest Reserve, Ogun State, Nigeria. Improving forest management by manipulating growth characteristics that influences carbon sequestration could be an adaptive strategy of forestry to climate change. Random sampling was used to select Temporary Sample Plots (TSPs) in the study area from where complete enumeration of growth variables was carried out within the plots. The data collected were subjected to descriptive and correlational analyses. The results showed that average carbon stored by Pine and Teak are 994.4±188.3 Kg and 1350.7±180.6 Kg respectively. The difference in carbon stored in the species is significant enough to consider choice of species relevant in climate change adaptation strategy. Tree growth variables influence the capacity of the tree to sequester carbon. Height, diameter, volume, wood density and age are positively correlated to carbon sequestration. These tree growth variables could be manipulated by the forest manager as an adaptive strategy for climate change while plantations of high wood density speciescould be relevant for management strategy to increase carbon storage.

Keywords: adaptation, carbon sequestration, climate change, growth variables, wood density

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Authors: Petra Gergelova, Sofia Ioannidou, Davide Arcella, Alexandra Tard, Polly E. Boon, Oliver Lindtner, Christina Tlustos, Jean-Charles Leblanc

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Objectives: To assess chronic dietary exposure to food additives in different European countries and population groups. Method and Design: The European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS) estimates chronic dietary exposure to food additives with the purpose of re-evaluating food additives that were previously authorized in Europe. For this, EFSA uses concentration values (usage and/or analytical occurrence data) reported through regular public calls for data by food industry and European countries. These are combined, at individual level, with national food consumption data from the EFSA Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database including data from 33 dietary surveys from 19 European countries and considering six different population groups (infants, toddlers, children, adolescents, adults and the elderly). EFSA ANS Panel estimates dietary exposure for each individual in the EFSA Comprehensive Database by combining the occurrence levels per food group with their corresponding consumption amount per kg body weight. An individual average exposure per day is calculated, resulting in distributions of individual exposures per survey and population group. Based on these distributions, the average and 95th percentile of exposure is calculated per survey and per population group. Dietary exposure is assessed based on two different sets of data: (a) Maximum permitted levels (MPLs) of use set down in the EU legislation (defined as regulatory maximum level exposure assessment scenario) and (b) usage levels and/or analytical occurrence data (defined as refined exposure assessment scenario). The refined exposure assessment scenario is sub-divided into the brand-loyal consumer scenario and the non-brand-loyal consumer scenario. For the brand-loyal consumer scenario, the consumer is considered to be exposed on long-term basis to the highest reported usage/analytical level for one food group, and at the mean level for the remaining food groups. For the non-brand-loyal consumer scenario, the consumer is considered to be exposed on long-term basis to the mean reported usage/analytical level for all food groups. An additional exposure from sources other than direct addition of food additives (i.e. natural presence, contaminants, and carriers of food additives) is also estimated, as appropriate. Results: Since 2014, this methodology has been applied in about 30 food additive exposure assessments conducted as part of scientific opinions of the EFSA ANS Panel. For example, under the non-brand-loyal scenario, the highest 95th percentile of exposure to α-tocopherol (E 307) and ammonium phosphatides (E 442) was estimated in toddlers up to 5.9 and 8.7 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. The same estimates under the brand-loyal scenario in toddlers resulted in exposures of 8.1 and 20.7 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. For the regulatory maximum level exposure assessment scenario, the highest 95th percentile of exposure to α-tocopherol (E 307) and ammonium phosphatides (E 442) was estimated in toddlers up to 11.9 and 30.3 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. Conclusions: Detailed and up-to-date information on food additive concentration values (usage and/or analytical occurrence data) and food consumption data enable the assessment of chronic dietary exposure to food additives to more realistic levels.

Keywords: α-tocopherol, ammonium phosphatides, dietary exposure assessment, European Food Safety Authority, food additives, food consumption data

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Authors: Georgios Boustras, Cleo Varianou Mikellidou, Christos Argyropoulos

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Summer 2021 was marked by a number of prolific fires in the EU (Greece, Cyprus, France) as well as outside the EU (USA, Turkey, Israel). This series of dramatic events have stretched national civil protection systems and first responders in particular. Despite the introduction of National, Regional and International frameworks (e.g. rescEU), a number of challenges have arisen, not only related to climate change. RESPOND-A (funded by the European Commission by Horizon 2020, Contract Number 883371) introduces a unique five-tier project architectural structure for best associating modern telecommunications technology with novel practices for First Responders of saving lives, while safeguarding themselves, more effectively and efficiently. The introduced architecture includes Perception, Network, Processing, Comprehension, and User Interface layers, which can be flexibly elaborated to support multiple levels and types of customization, so, the intended technologies and practices can adapt to any European Environment Agency (EEA)-type disaster scenario. During the preparation of the RESPOND-A proposal, some of our First Responder Partners expressed the need for an information management system that could boost existing emergency response tools, while some others envisioned a complete end-to-end network management system that would offer high Situational Awareness, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation capabilities. The intuition behind these needs and visions sits on the long-term experience of these Responders, as well, their smoldering worry that the evolving threat of climate change and the consequences of industrial accidents will become more frequent and severe. Three large-scale pilot studies are planned in order to illustrate the capabilities of the RESPOND-A system. The first pilot study will focus on the deployment and operation of all available technologies for continuous communications, enhanced Situational Awareness and improved health and safety conditions for First Responders, according to a big fire scenario in a Wildland Urban Interface zone (WUI). An important issue will be examined during the second pilot study. Unobstructed communication in the form of the flow of information is severely affected during a crisis; the flow of information between the wider public, from the first responders to the public and vice versa. Call centers are flooded with requests and communication is compromised or it breaks down on many occasions, which affects in turn – the effort to build a common operations picture for all firstr esponders. At the same time the information that reaches from the public to the operational centers is scarce, especially in the aftermath of an incident. Understandably traffic if disrupted leaves no other way to observe but only via aerial means, in order to perform rapid area surveys. Results and work in progress will be presented in detail and challenges in relation to civil protection will be discussed.

Keywords: first responders, safety, civil protection, new technologies

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Authors: Luz-Marina Roberts, Ancil Kirk, Aisha Donaldson, Anya Seepaul, Jade Lakhan, Shianna Tikasingh

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Climate change has produced a crisis that particularly threatens small island states in the Caribbean. Developers and climate enthusiasts alike are now forced to find new and sustainable ways of building. Focus on existing buildings is particularly needed in Trinidad and Tobago, like other islands, especially as these countries are vulnerable to climate threats and geographic locations with close proximity to a hurricane. Additionally, since many colonial-era style buildings still exist, the idea that they are energy inefficient is at the forefront of the work of policy-makers. The question that remains is can these buildings be retrofitted to reflect the modern era while considering climate resilience. This paper aims to investigate the energy efficiency of colonial-era buildings in Port of Spain and whether these buildings in Trinidad and Tobago, if found to be energy inefficient, can be more energy efficient and sustainable. This involves collecting surveys from building management in colonial-era buildings and researching literature on colonial architecture in the Caribbean and modern innovations in green building designs. Additionally, the data and experiences from the Town and Country Planning Division in the Ministry of Planning and Development of Trinidad and Tobago will inform the paper. This research will aid in re-envisioning how green infrastructure can be applied to urban environments with older buildings and help inform planning policy as it relates to sustainability and energy efficiency.

Keywords: spatial planning, climate resilience, energy efficiency, sustainable development

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Authors: Arun Dhakal, Geoff Cockfield

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This paper examines the emission potential of different farming practices that the farmers have adopted in Dhanusha District of Nepal and scope of these practices in climate change mitigation. Which practice is more climate-smarter is the question that this aims to address through a life cycle assessment (LCA) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The LCA was performed to assess if there is difference in emission potential of broadly two farming systems (agroforestry–based and traditional agriculture) but specifically four farming systems. The required data for this was collected through household survey of randomly selected households of 200. The sources of emissions across the farming systems were paddy cultivation, livestock, chemical fertilizer, fossil fuels and biomass (fuel-wood and crop residue) burning. However, the amount of emission from these sources varied with farming system adopted. Emissions from biomass burning appeared to be the highest while the source ‘fossil fuel’ caused the lowest emission in all systems. The emissions decreased gradually from agriculture towards the highly integrated agroforestry-based farming system (HIS), indicating that integrating trees into farming system not only sequester more carbon but also help in reducing emissions from the system. The annual emissions for HIS, Medium integrated agroforestry-based farming system (MIS), LIS (less integrated agroforestry-based farming system and subsistence agricultural system (SAS) were 6.67 t ha-1, 8.62 t ha-1, 10.75 t ha-1 and 17.85 t ha-1 respectively. In one agroforestry cycle, the HIS, MIS and LIS released 64%, 52% and 40% less GHG emission than that of SAS. Within agroforestry-based farming systems, the HIS produced 25% and 50% less emissions than those of MIS and LIS respectively. Our finding suggests that a tree-based farming system is more climate-smarter than a traditional farming. If other two benefits (carbon sequestered within the farm and in the natural forest because of agroforestry) are to be considered, a considerable amount of emissions is reduced from a climate-smart farming. Some policy intervention is required to motivate farmers towards adopting such climate-friendly farming practices in developing countries.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, greenhouse gas, climate change, farming systems, Nepal

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Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

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Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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Authors: Ayoub Moufid, Najib Bennis, Soumia El Hani

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The objective of greenhouse climate control is to improve the culture development and to minimize the production costs. A greenhouse is an open system to external environment and the challenge is to regulate the internal climate despite the strong meteorological disturbances. The internal state of greenhouse considered in this work is defined by too relevant and coupled variables, namely inside temperature and hygrometry. These two variables are chosen to describe the internal state of greenhouses due to their importance in the development of plants and their sensitivity to external climatic conditions, sources of weather disturbances. A multivariable model is proposed and validated by considering a greenhouse as black-box system and the least square method is applied to parameters identification basing on collected experimental measures. To regulate the internal climate, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme. This one considers the measured meteorological disturbances and the physical and operational constraints on the control and state variables. A successful feasibility study of the proposed controller is presented, and simulation results show good performances despite the high interaction between internal and external variables and the strong external meteorological disturbances. The inside temperature and hygrometry are tracking nearly the desired trajectories. A comparison study with an On/Off control applied to the same greenhouse confirms the efficiency of the MPC approach to inside climate control.

Keywords: climate control, constraints, identification, greenhouse, model predictive control, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Mohammed Russedul Islam, Shah M. Muniruzzaman, M. Kamrul-Al-Masud, Syed Sadat Morshed

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Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. According to scientists it is predicted that temperature will raise 1-3% and precipitation 20% by 2050 in Bangladesh. Increased temperature and precipitation will deteriorate pavement structure in an accelerated rate. The study has found that pavement life will reduce significantly due to rise in temperature and precipitation in in a coastal road in Bangladesh. It will cause to increase the maintenance cost of the road. The study has found that reduction in pavement life will be caused due the decrease in stiffness and strength parameters of the pavement material due to high temperature and precipitation. It has found that use of new material costlier than the existing one will be necessary to prevent the reduction of pavement life. Eventually it will increase the re-construction cost of the road. The study has used mechanistic-empirical analysis method with a software GAMES (General analysis on multi-layered elastic systems) to find out the effect of temperature and precipitation rise on the pavement life. The study will help to guide road engineers of Bangladesh to prepare in advance to fight with the climate change effect.

Keywords: climate change, maintenance cost, mechanistic-empirical method, pavement life

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Authors: Rima Almalla

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The purpose of the research project in Geography is to evaluate the applicability of urban green infrastructure approach in Finnish climate. The key focus will be on the operation and efficiency of green infrastructure on urban stormwater management. Green infrastructure approach refers to the employment of sufficient green covers as a modern and smart environmental solution to improve the quality of urban environments. Green infrastructure provides a wide variety of micro-scale ecosystem services, such as stormwater runoff management, regulation of extreme air temperatures, reduction of energy consumption, plus a variety of social benefits and human health and wellbeing. However, the cold climate of Finland with seasonal ground frost, snow cover and relatively short growing season bring about questions of whether green infrastructure works as efficiently as expected. To tackle this question, green infrastructure solutions will be studied and analyzed with manifold methods: stakeholder perspectives regarding existing and planned GI solutions will be collected by web based questionnaires, semi structured interviews and group discussions, and analyzed in both qualitative and quantitative methods. Targeted empirical field campaigns will be conducted on selected sites. A systematic literature review with global perspective will support the analyses. The findings will be collected, compiled and analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS). The findings of the research will improve our understanding of the functioning of green infrastructure in the Finnish environment in urban stormwater management, as a landscape element for citizens’ wellbeing, and in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The acquired information will be shared with stakeholders in interactive co-design workshops. As green covers have great demand and potential globally, the conclusions will have relevance in other cool climate regions and may support Finnish business in green infrastructure sector.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, climate change, green infrastructure, stormwater

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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Authors: Paulo José Sigaúque, Paulo Rosman

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The Itajurú channel, located in the Eastern side of the Araruama lagoon, Rio de Janeiro state, is the one who makes the connection between Araruama lagoon and the sea. It is important to understand the hydrodynamic circulation of the location and effects of the sedimentological processes, and also estimate of the hydrodynamic and sedimentological processes in the future after the sea level change due to effects of climate change. This work presents results of a study about sediments dynamics in the Araruama lagoon focusing on the Itajurú channel region considering the present mean sea level and a foreseen sea level rise of 0.5 meters due to climate changes. The study was conducted with the aid of computer modeling for hydrodynamic and morphodynamic in SisBaHiA®. The results indicate that Araruama lagoon is composed by two hydrodynamics compartments; one is dominated by the action of the tide between the entrance of the channel and the strait of Perynas, and another one by the action of wind in narrow region between strait of Perynas and western extreme of the lagoon. With sea level rise, the magnitude of current velocities and flow rates is increased and consequently flow of sediment transport from upstream to downstream of Itajurú channel is increased and has more effect in the bridge Feliciano Sodré.

Keywords: hydrodinamic, superelevation, sea level, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

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Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

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Authors: Neelam Kadyan, Pratima Ranga, Yogender

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Indigenous people are the One who are affected by the climate change the most, although there have contributed little to its causes. This is largely a result of their historic dependence on local biological diversity, ecosystem services and cultural landscapes as a source of their sustenance and well-being. Comprising only four percent of the world’s population they utilize 22 percent of the world’s land surface. Despite their high exposure-sensitivity indigenous peoples and local communities are actively responding to changing climatic conditions and have demonstrated their resourcefulness and resilience in the face of climate change. Traditional Indigenous territories encompass up to 22 percent of the world’s land surface and they coincide with areas that hold 80 percent of the planet’s biodiversity. Also, the greatest diversity of indigenous groups coincides with the world’s largest tropical forest wilderness areas in the Americas (including Amazon), Africa, and Asia, and 11 percent of world forest lands are legally owned by Indigenous Peoples and communities. This convergence of biodiversity-significant areas and indigenous territories presents an enormous opportunity to expand efforts to conserve biodiversity beyond parks, which tend to benefit from most of the funding for biodiversity conservation. Tapping on Ancestral Knowledge Indigenous Peoples are carriers of ancestral knowledge and wisdom about this biodiversity. Their effective participation in biodiversity conservation programs as experts in protecting and managing biodiversity and natural resources would result in more comprehensive and cost effective conservation and management of biodiversity worldwide. Addressing the Climate Change Agenda Indigenous Peoples has played a key role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The territories of indigenous groups who have been given the rights to their lands have been better conserved than the adjacent lands (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Nicaragua, etc.). Preserving large extensions of forests would not only support the climate change objectives, but it would respect the rights of Indigenous Peoples and conserve biodiversity as well. A climate change agenda fully involving Indigenous Peoples has many more benefits than if only government and/or the private sector are involved. Indigenous peoples are some of the most vulnerable groups to the negative effects of climate change. Also, they are a source of knowledge to the many solutions that will be needed to avoid or ameliorate those effects. For example, ancestral territories often provide excellent examples of a landscape design that can resist the negatives effects of climate change. Over the millennia, Indigenous Peoples have developed adaptation models to climate change. They have also developed genetic varieties of medicinal and useful plants and animal breeds with a wider natural range of resistance to climatic and ecological variability.

Keywords: ancestral knowledge, cost effective conservation, management, indigenous peoples, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 661

Authors: I. P. Singh, Ajesh Kumar Kapoor

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Rapid globalization have led to a change towards massive uncontrolled urbanization. Whereas during initial years negligence was there in the name of development, growth and vision toward healthier and better tomorrow. Considering the scenario of developing nations (India) where 70% of their population is living on 30% (urban areas) of their total land available. The need of an hour is to consider the ethical values of each and every person living in urban fringes, whereby the sustainable urban development is promoted which encompasses the move toward low carbon developments. It would help reviving a city lung space and reducing carbon credits as per Kyoto Protocol 1991. This paper would provide an overview about Indian scenario of current urban areas, ongoing developments, series of regulatory policy measures, materials innovative use and policies framed and opted for low carbon development.

Keywords: urban sustainability, indicators for sustainable development, low carbon development, Indian Policies toward low carbon development

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Meghry Nazarian, Ibrahim Duyar

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Effective management of a diverse workforce in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) presents peculiar importance as two-thirds of residents are expatriates who have diverse ethnic and cultural backgrounds. Like any other organization in the country, UAE schools have become upmost diverse settings in the world. The purpose of this study was to examine whether principals’ cultural intelligence has direct and indirect (moderating) influences on teachers’ perceived diversity climate. A quantitative causal-comparative research design was employed to analyze the data. Participants included random samples of principals and teachers working in the private and charter schools in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The data-gathering online questionnaires included previously developed and validated scales as the measures of study variables. More specifically, the multidimensional short-form measure of Cultural Intelligence (CQ) and the diversity climate scale were used to measure the study variables. Multivariate statistics, including the analysis of multivariate analysis of variance (MANCOVA) and structural equation modeling (SEM), were employed to examine the relationships between the study variables. The preliminary analyses of data showed that principals and teachers have differing views of diversity management and climate in schools. Findings also showed that principals’ cultural intelligence has both direct and moderating influences on teachers’ perceived diversity climate. The study findings are expected to inform policymakers and practicing educational leaders in addressing diversity management in a country where the majority of the residents are the minority who have diverse ethnic and cultural backgrounds.

Keywords: diversity management, united arab emirates, school principals’ cultural intelligence (CQ), teachers’ perceived diversity climate

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

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The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 127