Search results for: choice models

Authors: Daniel Fulus Fom, Gau Patrick Damulak

Abstract:

In this study, the Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Jordan Recurrent Neural Network (JRNN) models were employed to model the forecasting performance of the daily turbidity flow of White Clay Creek (WCC). The two methods were applied to the log difference series of the daily turbidity flow series of WCC. The measurements of error employed to investigate the forecasting performance of the ARFIMA and JRNN models are the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The outcome of the investigation revealed that the forecasting performance of the JRNN technique is better than the forecasting performance of the ARFIMA technique in the mean square error sense. The results of the ARFIMA and JRNN models were obtained by the simulation of the models using MATLAB version 8.03. The significance of using the log difference series rather than the difference series is that the log difference series stabilizes the turbidity flow series than the difference series on the ARFIMA and JRNN.

Keywords: auto regressive, mean absolute error, neural network, root square mean error

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Thiago Victor Cordeiro Marcos, Joao Felipe de Araujo Martos, Ronaldo de Lima Cardoso, David Romanelli Pinto, Paulo Gilberto de Paula Toro, Israel da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

Abstract:

Currently, the use of 3D rapid prototyping, also known as 3D printing, has been investigated by some universities around the world as an innovative technique, fast, flexible and cheap for a direct plastic models manufacturing that are lighter and with complex geometries to be tested for hypersonic shock tunnel. Initially, the purpose is integrated prototyped parts with metal models that actually are manufactured through of the conventional machining and hereafter replace them with completely prototyped models. The mechanical design models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel are based on conventional manufacturing processes, therefore are limited forms and standard geometries. The use of 3D rapid prototyping offers a range of options that enables geometries innovation and ways to be used for the design new models. The conception and project of a prototyped model for hypersonic shock tunnel should be rethought and adapted when comparing the conventional manufacturing processes, in order to fully exploit the creativity and flexibility that are allowed by the 3D prototyping process. The objective of this paper is to compare the conception and project of a 3D rapid prototyping model and a conventional machining model, while showing the advantages and disadvantages of each process and the benefits that 3D prototyping can bring to the manufacture of models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D prototyping, experimental research, hypersonic shock tunnel

Procedia PDF Downloads 451

Authors: Marleen Onwezen

Abstract:

It is often assumed that specific consumer groups do or do not have a sustainable lifestyle or that a specific context does or does not trigger sustainable choices. Based on goal-framing theory, this article aims to understand variation in sustainable choices across contexts. We add to the literature by showing the added value of including a moral goal frame (Study 1; N = 1,100) beyond the hedonic, gain, and normative goal frames. Moreover, we add to the literature by revealing how these goal frames are recalled in real-life consumption contexts (Study 2; N = 1,100) and how they can be activated (Study 3; N = 1,651). The results reveal that different goal frames result in different preferences and consumption choices, and that the normative frames showed the most consistent association with sustainable intentions. A contrast exists between frames currently activated in food choice contexts, mainly the gain and hedonic frames, and those associated with sustainable behaviours, the moral and social frames. This indicates the relevance of further understanding and adapting the environment to activate moral and social frames to further enforce sustainable food transitions.

Keywords: goal frames, sustainable behaviour, food choice, moral

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Andreas Johansson

Abstract:

Conceptual understanding needs to be grounded on observation of physical phenomena, experiences or metaphors. Observation of physical phenomena using demonstration experiments has a long tradition within physics education and students need to develop mental models to relate the observations to concepts from scientific theories. This study investigates how live and video experiments involving an acoustic trap to visualize particle-field interaction, field properties and particle properties can help develop students' mental models and how they can be used differently to realize their potential as teaching tools. Initially, they were treated as analogs and the lesson designs were kept identical. With a design-based approach, the experimental and video designs, as well as best practices for a respective teaching tool, were then developed in iterations. Variation theory was used as a theoretical framework to analyze the planned respective realized pattern of variation and invariance in order to explain learning outcomes as measured by a pre-posttest consisting of conceptual multiple-choice questions inspired by the Force Concept Inventory and the Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation. Interviews with students and teachers were used to inform the design of experiments and videos in each iteration. The lesson designs and the live and video experiments has been developed to help teachers improve student learning and make school physics more interesting by involving experimental setups that usually are out of reach and to bridge the gap between what happens in classrooms and in science research. As students’ conceptual knowledge also rises their interest in physics the aim is to increase their chances of pursuing careers within science, technology, engineering or mathematics.

Keywords: acoustic trap, design-based research, experiments, variation theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

Abstract:

The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Amany Haridy, Ahmed Elseragy, Fahd Omar

Abstract:

The issue of temperature increase in the urban microclimate has been at the center of attention recently, especially in dense urban areas, such as the City of Alexandria in Egypt, where building surfaces have become the dominant element (more than green areas and streets). Temperatures have been rising during daytime as well as nighttime, however, the research focused on the rise of air temperature at night, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island. This phenomenon has many effects on ecological life, as well as human health. This study provided evidence of the possibility of reducing the urban heat island by using a green building envelope (green wall and green roof) in Alexandria, Egypt. This City has witnessed a boom in growth in its urban fabric and population. A simulation analysis using the Envi-met software to find the ratio of air temperature reduction was performed. The simulation depended on the orientation of the green areas and their density, which was defined through a process of climatic analysis made by the Diva plugin using the Grasshopper software. Results showed that the reduction in air temperature varies from 0.8–2.0 °C, increasing with the increasing density of green areas. Many systems of green wall and green roof can be found in the local market. However, treating an existing building requires a careful choice of system to fit the building construction load and the surrounding nature. Among the systems of choice, there was the ‘geometric system’ of vertical greening that can be fixed on a light aluminum structure for walls and the extensive green system for roofs. Finally, native plants were the best choice in the long term because they fare well in the local climate.

Keywords: envi-met, green building envelope, urban heat island, urban microclimate

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Adrian Craig, Jonathan Easaw, Rose Jordan, Ben Hall

Abstract:

The prescription of intravenous fluids is a fundamental component of inpatient management, but it is one which usually lacks thought. Fluids are a drug, which like any other can cause harm when prescribed inappropriately or wrongly. However, it is well recognised that it is poorly done, especially in the acute portals. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends 1mmol/kg of potassium, sodium, and chloride per day. With various options of fluids, clinicians tend to face difficulty in choosing the most appropriate maintenance fluid, and there is a reluctance to prescribe potassium as part of an intravenous maintenance fluid regime. The aim was to prospectively audit the prescription of the first bag of intravenous maintenance fluids, the use of urea and electrolytes results to guide the choice of fluid and the use of fluid prescription charts, in a busy emergency department of a major trauma centre in Stoke-on-Trent, United Kingdom. This was undertaken over a week in early November 2016. Of those prescribed maintenance fluid only 8.9% were prescribed a fluid which was most appropriate for their daily electrolyte requirements. This audit has helped to highlight further the issues that are faced in busy Emergency Departments within hospitals that are stretched and lack capacity for prompt transfer to a ward. It has supported the findings of NICE, that emergency admission portals such as Emergency Departments poorly prescribed intravenous fluid therapy. The findings have enabled simple steps to be taken to educate clinicians about their fluid of choice. This has included: posters to remind clinicians to consider the urea and electrolyte values before prescription, suggesting the inclusion of a suggested intravenous fluid of choice in the prescription chart of the trust and the inclusion of a session within the introduction programme revising intravenous fluid therapy and daily electrolyte requirements. Moving forward, once the interventions have been implemented then, the data will be reaudited in six months to note any improvement in maintenance fluid choice. Alongside this, an audit of the rate of intravenous maintenance fluid therapy would be proposed to further increase patient safety by avoiding unintentional fluid overload which may cause unnecessary harm to patients within the hospital. In conclusion, prescription of maintenance fluid therapy was poor within the Emergency Department, and there is a great deal of opportunity for improvement. Therefore, the measures listed above will be implemented and the data reaudited.

Keywords: chloride, electrolyte, emergency department, emergency medicine, fluid, fluid therapy, intravenous, maintenance, major trauma, potassium, sodium, trauma

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Cheikh Bamba Dione, Alla Lo, Elhadji Mamadou Nguer, Siley O. Ba

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose two neural machine translation (NMT) systems (French-to-Wolof and Wolof-to-French) based on sequence-to-sequence with attention and transformer architectures. We trained our models on a parallel French-Wolof corpus of about 83k sentence pairs. Because of the low-resource setting, we experimented with advanced methods for handling data sparsity, including subword segmentation, back translation, and the copied corpus method. We evaluate the models using the BLEU score and find that transformer outperforms the classic seq2seq model in all settings, in addition to being less sensitive to noise. In general, the best scores are achieved when training the models on word-level-based units. For subword-level models, using back translation proves to be slightly beneficial in low-resource (WO) to high-resource (FR) language translation for the transformer (but not for the seq2seq) models. A slight improvement can also be observed when injecting copied monolingual text in the target language. Moreover, combining the copied method data with back translation leads to a substantial improvement of the translation quality.

Keywords: backtranslation, low-resource language, neural machine translation, sequence-to-sequence, transformer, Wolof

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: J. George, M. Al Mutairi, W. Aljuryyad, A. Alhussanan, A. Alkashan, T. Aldoghiri, Z. Alamari, A. Albakr

Abstract:

Introduction: Students make plans for their career and are keen in exploring options of employment in those carriers. They make their employment choice based on their desires and preferences. This study aims to identify if students of King Saud Bin Abdulaziz for Health Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences after obtaining appropriate education prefer to work as clinicians, university faculty, or full-time researchers. There are limited studies in Saudi Arabia exploring the university student’s employment choices and preferences. This study would help employers to build the required job positions and prevent misleading employers from opening undesired positions in the job market. Methodology: The study included 394 students from third and fourth years both male and female among the eighth programs of college of applied medical sciences, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences (KSAU-HS), Riyadh campus. A prospective quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted; data were collected by distributing a seven item questionnaire and analyzed using SPSS. Results: Among the participants, 358 (90.9%) of them chose one of the three listed career choices, 263 (66.8%) decided to work as hospital staff after their education, 75 students (19.0%) chose to work as a faculty member in a university after obtaining appropriate degree, 20 students (5.1%) preferred to work as full-time researcher after obtaining appropriate degree, the remaining 36 students (9.1%) had different career goals, such as obtaining a master degree after graduating, to obtain a bachelor of medicine and bachelor in surgery degree, and working in the private sector. The most recurrent reason behind the participants' choice was "career goal", where 276 (70.1%) chose it as a reason. Conclusion: The findings of the study showed that most student’s preferred to work in hospitals as clinicians, followed by choice of working as a faculty in a university, the least choice was to be working as full-time researchers.

Keywords: College of Applied Medical Sciences, employment ambitions, graduating students, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Peyman Aela, Lu Zong, Guoqing Jing

Abstract:

Recently, there has been growing interest in numerical modeling of ballast railway tracks. A commonly used mechanistic modeling approach for ballast is the discrete element method (DEM). Up to now, the effects of the contact model on ballast particle behavior have not been precisely examined. In this regard, selecting the appropriate contact model is mainly associated with the particle characteristics and the loading condition. Since ballast is cohesionless material, different contact models, including the linear spring, Hertz-Mindlin, and Hysteretic models, could be used to calculate particle-particle or wall-particle contact forces. Moreover, the simulation of a dynamic test is vital to investigate the effect of damping parameters on the ballast deformation. In this study, ballast box tests were simulated by DEM to examine the influence of different contact models on the mechanical behavior of the ballast layer under cyclic loading. This paper shows how the contact model can affect the deformation and damping of a ballast layer subjected to cyclic loading in a ballast box.

Keywords: ballast, contact model, cyclic loading, DEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Stuart Bradley, Mathew Legg, Lilyan Panton

Abstract:

Ultrasonic remote sensing is a useful tool for assessing the interior structure of complex targets. For these methods, significantly enhanced spatial resolution is obtained if the pulse is coded, for example using a linearly changing frequency during the pulse duration. Such pulses have a time-dependent spectral structure. Interpretation of the backscatter from targets is, therefore, complicated if the scattering is frequency-dependent. While analytic models are well established for steady sinusoidal excitations applied to simple shapes such as spheres, such models do not generally exist for temporally evolving excitations. Therefore, models are developed in the current paper for handling such signals so that the properties of the targets can be quantitatively evaluated while maintaining very high spatial resolution. Laboratory measurements on simple shapes are used to confirm the validity of the models.

Keywords: linear FM chirp, time-dependent acoustic scattering, ultrasonic remote sensing, ultrasonic scattering

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Zoran Jovanovic, Zoran Masonicic, S. Dragutinovic, Z. Sakota

Abstract:

In this paper, results concerning flame propagation of various fuels in a particular combustion chamber with four tilted valves were elucidated. Flame propagation was represented by the evolution of spatial distribution of temperature in various cut-planes within combustion chamber while the flame front location was determined by dint of zones with maximum temperature gradient. The results presented are only a small part of broader on-going scrutinizing activity in the field of multidimensional modeling of reactive flows in combustion chambers with complicated geometries encompassing various models of turbulence, different fuels and combustion models. In the case of turbulence two different models were applied i.e. standard k-ε model of turbulence and k-ξ-f model of turbulence. In this paper flame propagation results were analyzed and presented for two different hydrocarbon fuels, such as CH4 and C8H18. In the case of combustion all differences ensuing from different turbulence models, obvious for non-reactive flows are annihilated entirely. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is invariant as regards turbulence models and fuels applied. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is entirely invariant as regards fuel variation indicating that the flame propagation through unburned mixture of CH4 and C8H18 fuels is not chemically controlled.

Keywords: automotive flows, flame propagation, combustion modelling, CNG

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Thapasya J., Rajesh Kumar

Abstract:

Language plays complex roles in society. The previous studies on language and society explain their interconnected, complementary and complex interactions and, those studies were primarily focused on the variations in the language. Variation being the fundamental nature of languages, the question of personal and social identity navigated through language variation and established that there is an interconnection between language variation and identity. This paper analyses the sociolinguistic variation in language at the lexical level and how the lexical choice of the speaker(s) affects in shaping their identity. It obtains primary data from the lexicon of the Mappila dialect of Malayalam spoken by the members of Mappila (Muslim) community of Kerala. The variation in the lexical choice is analysed by collecting data from the speech samples of 15 minutes from four different age groups of Mappila dialect speakers. Various contexts were analysed and the frequency of borrowed words in each instance is calculated to reach a conclusion on how the variation is happening in the speech community. The paper shows how the lexical choice of the speakers could be socially motivated and involve in shaping and changing identities. Lexical items or vocabulary clearly signal the group identity and personal identity. Mappila dialect of Malayalam was rich in frequent use of borrowed words from Arabic, Persian and Urdu. There was a deliberate attempt to show their identity as a Mappila community member, which was derived from the socio-political situation during those days. This made a clear variation between the Mappila dialect and other dialects of Malayalam at the surface level, which was motivated to create and establish the identity of a person as the member of Mappila community. Historically, these kinds of linguistic variation were highly motivated because of the socio-political factors and, intertwined with the historical facts about the origin and spread of Islamism in the region; people from the Mappila community highly motivated to project their identity as a Mappila because of the social insecurities they had to face before accepting that religion. Thus the deliberate inclusion of Arabic, Persian and Urdu words in their speech helped in showing their identity. However, the socio-political situations and factors at the origin of Mappila community have been changed over a period of time. The social motivation for indicating their identity as a Mappila no longer exist and thus the frequency of borrowed words from Arabic, Persian and Urdu have been reduced from their speech. Apart from the religious terms, the borrowed words from these languages are very few at present. The analysis is carried out by the changes in the language of the people according to their age and found to have significant variations between generations and literacy plays a major role in this variation process. The need of projecting a specific identity of an individual would vary according to the change in the socio-political scenario and a variation in language can shape the identity in order to go with the varying socio-political situation in any language.

Keywords: borrowings, dialect, identity, lexical choice, literacy, variation

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Aly Mohamed El Husseiny, Azza Ezz Abdelkader

Abstract:

There is a critical thin line between freedom of choice and randomness. The distance between imagination and perception and between perception and execution varies depending on numerous factors. While in developed areas residents have the opportunity and abilities to build flexible homes, residents in developing areas create their own dwellings in informal settlements, even though none of them is comfortable at home in the long run. This paper explores three factors: What residents really need, what they do with limited flexibility, and what they do when there are no limits, as in the case of informal settlements. This paper studies alteration to residential buildings and how they connect to the changes in people’s lifecycle in all past cases. This study also examines all approaches to flexibility, focusing on a social approach. The results of this study are based on three practical studies: Interviews with residents in an informal settlement (Eshash Mahfouz in Minya in Egypt), a civil study of buildings in a middle-class district, and a survey of residents from many countries, including Egypt, and interviews with a number of them to determine residents’ needs and the extent of renovations they made or would like to make to their homes.

Keywords: flexibility, housing, freedom of choice, social, changes, residents

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Azadeh Bashiri

Abstract:

Introduction: Lack of proper diagnosis and inadequate treatment of asthma leads to physical and financial complications. This study aimed to use data mining techniques and creating a neural network intelligent system for diagnosis of asthma. Methods: The study population is the patients who had visited one of the Lung Clinics in Tehran. Data were analyzed using the SPSS statistical tool and the chi-square Pearson's coefficient was the basis of decision making for data ranking. The considered neural network is trained using back propagation learning technique. Results: According to the analysis performed by means of SPSS to select the top factors, 13 effective factors were selected, in different performances, data was mixed in various forms, so the different models were made for training the data and testing networks and in all different modes, the network was able to predict correctly 100% of all cases. Conclusion: Using data mining methods before the design structure of system, aimed to reduce the data dimension and the optimum choice of the data, will lead to a more accurate system. Therefore, considering the data mining approaches due to the nature of medical data is necessary.

Keywords: asthma, data mining, Artificial Neural Network, intelligent system

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Divyansh Goel, Varun Jain

Abstract:

Classical economics works on the principle that people are rational and analytical in their decision making and their choices fall in line with the most suitable option according to the dominant strategy in a standard game theory model. This model has failed at many occasions in estimating the behavior and dealings of rational people, giving proof of some other underlying heuristics and cognitive biases at work. This paper probes into the study of these factors, which fall under the umbrella of behavioral economics and through their medium explore the solution to a problem which a lot of nations presently face. There has long been a wide disparity in the number of people holding favorable views on organ donation and the actual number of people signing up for the same. This paper, in its entirety, is an attempt to shape the public policy which leads to an increase the number of organ donations that take place and close the gap in the statistics of the people who believe in signing up for organ donation and the ones who actually do. The key assumption here is that in cases of cognitive dissonance, where people have an inconsistency due to conflicting views, people have a tendency to go with the default choice. This tendency is a well-documented cognitive bias known as the status quo bias. The research in this project involves an assay of mandated choice models of organ donation with two case studies. The first of an opt-in system of Germany (where people have to explicitly sign up for organ donation) and the second of an opt-out system of Austria (every citizen at the time of their birth is an organ donor and has to explicitly sign up for refusal). Additionally, there has also been presented a detailed analysis of the experiment performed by Eric J. Johnson and Daniel G. Goldstein. Their research as well as many other independent experiments such as that by Tsvetelina Yordanova of the University of Sofia, both of which yield similar results. The conclusion being that the general population has by and large no rigid stand on organ donation and are gullible to status quo bias, which in turn can determine whether a large majority of people will consent to organ donation or not. Thus, in our paper, we throw light on how governments can use status quo bias to drive positive social change by making policies in which everyone by default is marked an organ donor, which will, in turn, save the lives of people who succumb on organ transplantation waitlists and save the economy countless hours of economic productivity.

Keywords: behavioral economics, game theory, organ donation, status quo bias

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Jessemyn Modiini, Timothy Lynar, Elena Sitnikova

Abstract:

We present a novel enhanced compartmental model for malware spread analysis in cyber security. This paper applies cyber security data features to epidemiological compartmental models to model the infectious potential of malware. Compartmental models are most efficient for calculating the infectious potential of a disease. In this paper, we discuss and profile epidemiologically relevant data features from a Domain Name System (DNS) dataset. We then apply these features to epidemiological compartmental models to network traffic features. This paper demonstrates how epidemiological principles can be applied to the novel analysis of key cybersecurity behaviours and trends and provides insight into threat modelling above that of kill-chain analysis. In applying deterministic compartmental models to a cyber security use case, the authors analyse the deficiencies and provide an enhanced stochastic model for cyber epidemiology. This enhanced compartmental model (SUEICRN model) is contrasted with the traditional SEIR model to demonstrate its efficacy.

Keywords: cybersecurity, epidemiology, cyber epidemiology, malware

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Pattra Pukdeekiat, Siriluk Ruangrungrote

Abstract:

This work was originated to precisely determine direct solar radiation by using atmospheric physics models since the accurate prediction of solar radiation is necessary and useful for solar energy applications including atmospheric research. The possible models and techniques for a calculation of regional direct solar radiation were challenging and compulsory for the case of unavailable instrumental measurement. The investigation was mathematically governed by six astronomical parameters i.e. declination (δ), hour angle (ω), solar time, solar zenith angle (θz), extraterrestrial radiation (Iso) and eccentricity (E0) along with two atmospheric parameters i.e. air mass (mr) and dew point temperature at Bangna meteorological station (13.67° N, 100.61° E) in Bangkok, Thailand. Analyses of five models of solar radiation determination with the assumption of clear sky were applied accompanied by three statistical tests: Mean Bias Difference (MBD), Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD) and Coefficient of determination (R2) in order to validate the accuracy of obtainable results. The calculated direct solar radiation was in a range of 491-505 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 8.41% for winter and 532-540 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 4.89% for summer 2014. Additionally, dataset of seven continuous days, representing both seasons were considered with the MBD, RMSD and R2 of -0.08, 0.25, 0.86 and -0.14, 0.35, 3.29, respectively, which belong to Kumar model for winter and CSR model for summer. In summary, the determination of direct solar radiation based on atmospheric models and empirical equations could advantageously provide immediate and reliable values of the solar components for any site in the region without a constraint of actual measurement.

Keywords: atmospheric physics models, astronomical parameters, atmospheric parameters, clear sky condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

Abstract:

The ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on the Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to take into account other important criteria. From these models, we will consider the ZF model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index can affect the ABC items classification. We will then focus on the weights assigned to each index and propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model

Procedia PDF Downloads 491

Authors: Vinayak Bassi, Rajpreet Singh

Abstract:

Over the years, with the emergence of sophisticated computers and algorithms, finance has been quantified using computational prowess. Asset valuation has been one of the key components of quantitative finance. In fact, it has become one of the embryonic steps in determining risk related to a portfolio, the main goal of quantitative finance. This study comprises a drawing comparison between valuation output generated by two stochastic dynamic models, namely Black-Scholes and Dupire’s bi-dimensionality model. Both of these models are formulated for computing the valuation function for a portfolio of European options using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although Monte Carlo algorithms have a slower convergence rate than calculus-based simulation techniques (like FDM), they work quite effectively over high-dimensional dynamic models. A fidelity gap is analyzed between the static (historical) and stochastic inputs for a sample portfolio of underlying assets. In order to enhance the performance efficiency of the model, the study emphasized the use of variable reduction methods and customizing random number generators to implement parallelization. An attempt has been made to further implement the Dupire’s model on a GPU to achieve higher computational performance. Furthermore, ideas have been discussed around the performance enhancement and bottleneck identification related to the implementation of options-pricing models on GPUs.

Keywords: monte carlo, stochastic models, computational finance, parallel programming, scientific computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Fidelia A. Orji, Julita Vassileva

Abstract:

This research aims to develop machine learning models for students' academic performance and study strategy prediction, which could be generalized to all courses in higher education. Key learning attributes (intrinsic, extrinsic, autonomy, relatedness, competence, and self-esteem) used in building the models are chosen based on prior studies, which revealed that the attributes are essential in students’ learning process. Previous studies revealed the individual effects of each of these attributes on students’ learning progress. However, few studies have investigated the combined effect of the attributes in predicting student study strategy and academic performance to reduce the dropout rate. To bridge this gap, we used Scikit-learn in python to build five machine learning models (Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, Linear/Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine) for both regression and classification tasks to perform our analysis. The models were trained, evaluated, and tested for accuracy using 924 university dentistry students' data collected by Chilean authors through quantitative research design. A comparative analysis of the models revealed that the tree-based models such as the random forest (with prediction accuracy of 94.9%) and decision tree show the best results compared to the linear, support vector, and k-nearest neighbours. The models built in this research can be used in predicting student performance and study strategy so that appropriate interventions could be implemented to improve student learning progress. Thus, incorporating strategies that could improve diverse student learning attributes in the design of online educational systems may increase the likelihood of students continuing with their learning tasks as required. Moreover, the results show that the attributes could be modelled together and used to adapt/personalize the learning process.

Keywords: classification models, learning strategy, predictive modeling, regression models, student academic performance, student motivation, supervised machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Ana Ramsha, Samrah Hidayat

Abstract:

This study examines the role of social parameters in the choice of address forms used in kinship domain in Punjab, Pakistan. The study targeted 140 respondents in order to test the impact of social factors along with the regional differences in the choices of address forms in kinship domain. Statistical analyses are done by applying t-test for gender in relation to choices of address forms and ANOVA for age, income, education and social class. The study finds out that there is a strong connection of different social parameters not only with language use and practice but also in choices and use of address forms, especially in kinship relationships. Moreover, it is highlighted that gender does not influence in the choices of address forms, even the participants belonging to young and middle categories show no significant difference with regard to the choices of address form despite the fact that all the factors and parameters exert influence on the choices of address forms. Hence address forms as being one of the major traits of language and society is affected by all the social factors around and regional differences are also most important as they give identity and ethnicity to the society.

Keywords: address forms, kinship, social parameters, linguistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

Abstract:

To ensure the overall coherence of simulated results, it is necessary to develop a robust validation process. In many applications, it is no longer content to calibrate and validate the model only in relation to the hydro graph measured at the outlet, but we try to better simulate the functioning of the watershed in space. Therefore the timing also performs compared to other variables such as water level measurements in intermediate stations or groundwater levels. As part of this work, we limit ourselves to modeling flood of short duration for which the process of evapotranspiration is negligible. The main parameters to identify the models are related to the method of unit hydro graph (HU). Three different models were tested: SNYDER, CLARK and SCS. These models differ in their mathematical structure and parameters to be calibrated while hydrological data are the same, the initial water content and precipitation. The models are compared on the basis of their performance in terms six objective criteria, three global criteria and three criteria representing volume, peak flow, and the mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent and also highlight the problems associated with the simulation of low flow events and intermittent precipitation.

Keywords: model calibration, intensity, runoff, hydrograph

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Abdunaser Abduelmula, Maria Luisa M. Bastos, José A. Gonçalves

Abstract:

The modeling of the earth's surface and evaluation of urban environment, with 3D models, is an important research topic. New stereo capabilities of high-resolution optical satellites images, such as the tri-stereo mode of Pleiades, combined with new image matching algorithms, are now available and can be applied in urban area analysis. In addition, photogrammetry software packages gained new, more efficient matching algorithms, such as SGM, as well as improved filters to deal with shadow areas, can achieve denser and more precise results. This paper describes a comparison between 3D data extracted from tri-stereo and dual stereo satellite images, combined with pixel based matching and Wallis filter. The aim was to improve the accuracy of 3D models especially in urban areas, in order to assess if satellite images are appropriate for a rapid evaluation of urban environments. The results showed that 3D models achieved by Pleiades tri-stereo outperformed, both in terms of accuracy and detail, the result obtained from a Geo-eye pair. The assessment was made with reference digital surface models derived from high-resolution aerial photography. This could mean that tri-stereo images can be successfully used for the proposed urban change analyses.

Keywords: 3D models, environment, matching, pleiades

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Marina Franulovic, Robert Basan, Bozidar Krizan

Abstract:

Constitutive modelling of material behaviour is becoming increasingly important in prediction of possible failures in highly loaded engineering components, and consequently, optimization of their design. In order to account for large number of phenomena that occur in the material during operation, such as kinematic hardening effect in low cycle fatigue behaviour of steels, complex nonlinear material models are used ever more frequently, despite of the complexity of determination of their parameters. As a method for the determination of these parameters, genetic algorithm is good choice because of its capability to provide very good approximation of the solution in systems with large number of unknown variables. For the application of genetic algorithm to parameter identification, inverse analysis must be primarily defined. It is used as a tool to fine-tune calculated stress-strain values with experimental ones. In order to choose proper objective function for inverse analysis among already existent and newly developed functions, the research is performed to investigate its influence on material behaviour modelling.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, kinematic hardening, material model, objective function

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Gonzalo García-Reyes

Abstract:

Conformastat spherically symmetric exact solutions of Einstein's field equations representing matter distributions made of fluid both perfect and anisotropic from given solutions of Poisson's equation of Newtonian gravity are investigated. The approach is used in the construction of new relativistic models of thick spherical shells and three-component models of galaxies (bulge, disk, and dark matter halo), writing, in this case, the metric in cylindrical coordinates. In addition, the circular motion of test particles (rotation curves) along geodesics on the equatorial plane of matter configurations and the stability of the orbits against radial perturbations are studied. The models constructed satisfy all the energy conditions.

Keywords: general relativity, exact solutions, spherical symmetry, galaxy, kinematics and dynamics, dark matter

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Subhan Ahmad, Pradeep Bhargava, Ajay Chourasia

Abstract:

Shear failure in reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement leads to loss of property and life since a very little or no warning occurs before failure as in case of flexural failure. Shear strength of reinforced concrete beams decreases as its depth increases. This phenomenon is generally called as the size effect. In this paper, a comparative analysis is performed to estimate the performance of shear strength models in capturing the size effect of reinforced concrete beams made with conventional concrete, self-compacting concrete, and recycled aggregate concrete. Four shear strength models that account for the size effect in shear are selected from the literature and applied on the datasets of slender reinforced concrete beams. Beams prepared with conventional concrete, self-compacting concrete, and recycled aggregate concrete are considered for the analysis. Results showed that all the four models captured the size effect in shear effectively and produced conservative estimates of the shear strength for beams made with normal strength conventional concrete. These models yielded unconservative estimates for high strength conventional concrete beams with larger effective depths ( > 450 mm). Model of Bazant and Kim (1984) captured the size effect precisely and produced conservative estimates of shear strength of self-compacting concrete beams at all the effective depths. Also, shear strength models considered in this study produced unconservative estimates of shear strength for recycled aggregate concrete beams at all effective depths.

Keywords: reinforced concrete beams; shear strength; prediction models; size effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Elena Valeryevna Pozhidaeva

Abstract:

This linguistic case study is based on an interaction between the social position and foodways. In every culture there is a social hierarchical system in which there can be means to express and to identify the social status of a person. Food serves as a class indicator. The British being a verbal nation use the words as a preferred medium for signalling and recognising the social status. The linguistic analysis reflects a symbolic hierarchy determined by social groups in the UK. The linguistic class indicators of a British hierarchical system are detectable directly – in speech acts. They are articulated in every aspect of a national identity’s life from preferences of the food and the choice to call it to the names of the meals. The linguistic class indicators can as well be detected indirectly – through symbolic meaning or via the choice of the mealtime, its class (e.g the classes of tea or marmalade), the place to buy food (the class of the supermarket) and consume it (the places for eating out and the frequency of such practices). Under analysis of this study are not only food items and their names but also such categories as cutlery as a class indicator and the act of eating together as a practice of social significance and a class indicator. Current social changes and economic developments are considered and their influence on the class indicators appearance and transformation.

Keywords: linguistic, class, social indicator, English, food class

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Hamidreza Ghazvinian, Khosro Ghazvinian, Touba Khodaiean

Abstract:

The importance of evaporation estimation in water resources and agricultural studies is undeniable. Pan evaporation are used as an indicator to determine the evaporation of lakes and reservoirs around the world due to the ease of interpreting its data. In this research, intelligent models were investigated in estimating pan evaporation on a daily basis. Shahroud and Mayamey were considered as the studied cities. These two cities are located in Semnan province in Iran. The mentioned cities have dry weather conditions that are susceptible to high evaporation potential. Meteorological data of 11 years of synoptic stations of Shahrood and Mayamey cities were used. The intelligent models used in this study are Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and M5 tree models. Meteorological parameters of minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmax, Tmin), wind speed (WS), sunshine hours (SH), air pressure (PA), relative humidity (RH) as selected input data and evaporation data from pan (EP) to The output data was considered. 70% of data is used at the education level, and 30 % of the data is used at the test level. Models used with explanation coefficient evaluation (R2) Root of Mean Squares Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results for the two Shahroud and Mayamey stations showed that the above three models' operations are rather appropriate.

Keywords: pan evaporation, intelligent methods, shahroud, mayamey

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

Abstract:

HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

Procedia PDF Downloads 410