Search results for: preposition error detection

Authors: Lydia Booney Jyrwa, Rabindra Nath Bhuyan

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Chocolate Mahseer (Neolissochilus hexagonolepis) is one of the Mahseer species inhabiting the North-eastern region of India and is a native species to the state of Meghalaya since it can adapt and grow well under the agro climatic conditions of the region. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The fish is considered as one of the endangered species of the Mahseer group, which is having tremendous scope for culture, sports and tourism. But non-availability of quality seed is a hindrance for the culture of this fish. Thus induced breeding of the fish by hormonal administration with pituitary gland and synthetic hormones is the only reliable method to procure the pure seed of the fish. Chocolate Mahseer was successfully bred at the Hatchery Complex, St. Anthony’s College, Shillong, Meghalaya by using pituitary extract and synthetic hormone viz. ovaprim, ovatide and gonopro-FH. The dose standardized is @ 4mg/kg body weight to both male and female as 1st dose and @ 7.9 mg/kg body weight only to female as 2nd dose for pituitary extract and single dose @ 0.8 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of both ovaprim and ovatide, while a single dose @ 0.9 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of gonopro-FH. The doses are standardized after a series of trial and error experiment performed. The fecundity of the fish was 3500 eggs/ kg body weight. The final hatching percentage achieved was 60%. The survival rate of hatchling was 50% up to fry stage. The use of synthetic hormone and positive response of the fish to the hormone will go in long way for production of quality seed of the fish which in turn help in culture of the species as the fish can be a very good candidate species for the culture in the state. This study will also help in the ranching of the fish in the natural habitat leading to conservation of the species. However, the study should be continued further for the large scale production of seeds.

Keywords: chocolate mahseer, induced breeding, pituitary extract, synthetic hormone

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: E. Bennion, A. Acharya, S. Barnes, D. Ferrell, S. Luckett-Cole, G. Mower, J. Nelson, Y. Nguyen

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Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the validity of a firearm injury query in the Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics syndromic surveillance system. Syndromic surveillance data are used at the Utah Department of Health for early detection of and rapid response to unusually high rates of violence and injury, among other health outcomes. The query of interest was defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and used chief complaint and discharge diagnosis codes to capture initial emergency department encounters for firearm injury of all intents. Design: Two epidemiologists manually reviewed electronic health records of emergency department visits captured by the query from April-May 2020, compared results, and sent conflicting determinations to two arbiters. Results: Of the 85 unique records captured, 67 were deemed probable, 19 were ruled out, and two were undetermined, resulting in a positive predictive value of 75.3%. Common reasons for false positives included non-initial encounters and misleading keywords. Conclusion: Improving the validity of syndromic surveillance data would better inform outbreak response decisions made by state and local health departments. The firearm injury definition could be refined to exclude non-initial encounters by negating words such as “last month,” “last week,” and “aftercare”; and to exclude non-firearm injury by negating words such as “pellet gun,” “air gun,” “nail gun,” “bullet bike,” and “exit wound” when a firearm is not mentioned.

Keywords: evaluation, health information system, firearm injury, syndromic surveillance

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: V. Mentl, V. Koula, P. Mazal, J. Volák

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Nowadays, the acoustic emission is a widely recognized method of material damage investigation, mainly in cases of cracks initiation and growth observation and evaluation. This is highly important in structures, e.g. pressure vessels, large steam turbine rotors etc., applied both in classic and nuclear power plants. Nevertheless, the acoustic emission signals must be correlated with the real crack progress to be able to evaluate the cracks and their growth by this non-destructive technique alone in real situations and to reach reliable results when the assessment of the structures' safety and reliability is performed and also when the remaining lifetime should be evaluated. The main aim of this study was to propose a methodology for evaluation of the early manifestations of the fatigue cracks and their growth and thus to quantify the material damage by acoustic emission parameters. Specimens made of several steels used in the power producing industry were subjected to fatigue loading in the low- and high-cycle regimes. This study presents results of the crack growth rate measurement obtained by the classic compliance change method and the acoustic emission signal analysis. The experiments were realized in cooperation between laboratories of Brno University of Technology and West Bohemia University in Pilsen within the solution of the project of the Czech Ministry of Industry and Commerce: "A diagnostic complex for the detection of pressure media and material defects in pressure components of nuclear and classic power plants" and the project “New Technologies for Mechanical Engineering”.

Keywords: fatigue, crack growth rate, acoustic emission, material damage

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Authors: Ratih Fitria Putri, Josaphat Tetuko Sri Sumantyo, Hiroaki Kuze

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Jakarta Metropolitan City is located on the northwest coast of West Java province with geographical location between 106º33’ 00”-107º00’00”E longitude and 5º48’30”-6º24’00”S latitude. Jakarta urban area has been suffered from land subsidence in several land use type as trading, industry and settlement area. Land subsidence hazard is one of the consequences of urban development in Jakarta. This hazard is caused by intensive human activities in groundwater extraction and land use mismanagement. Geologically, the Jakarta urban area is mostly dominated by alluvium fan sediment. The objectives of this research are to make an analysis of Jakarta urban land use type on land subsidence zone areas. The process of producing safer land use and settlements of the land subsidence areas are very important. Spatial distributions of land subsidence detection are necessary tool for land use management planning. For this purpose, Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) method is used. The DInSAR is complementary to ground-based methods such as leveling and global positioning system (GPS) measurements, yielding information in a wide coverage area even when the area is inaccessible. The data were fine tuned by using X-Band image satellite data from 2010 to 2013 and land use mapping data. Our analysis of land use type that land subsidence movement occurred on the northern part Jakarta Metropolitan City varying from 7.5 to 17.5 cm/year as industry and settlement land use type areas.

Keywords: land use analysis, land subsidence mapping, urban area, X-band satellite image

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Mar Cañada Soriano, Rafael Royo-Pastor, Carolina Aparicio-Fernández, Jose-Luis Vivancos

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The lack of insulation, along with the existence of air leakages, constitute a meaningful impact on the energy performance of buildings. Both of them lead to increases in the energy demand through additional heating and/or cooling loads. Additionally, they cause thermal discomfort. In order to quantify these uncontrolled air currents, pressurization and depressurization tests can be performed. Among them, the Blower Door test is a standardized procedure to determine the airtightness of a space which characterizes the rate of air leakages through the envelope surface, calculating to this purpose an air flow rate indicator. In this sense, the low-energy buildings complying with the Passive House design criteria are required to achieve high levels of airtightness. Due to the invisible nature of air leakages, additional tools are often considered to identify where the infiltrations take place. Among them, the infrared thermography entails a valuable technique to this purpose since it enables their detection. The aim of this study is to assess the airtightness of a typical Mediterranean dwelling house located in the Valencian orchad (Spain) restored under the Passive House standard using to this purpose the blower-door test. Moreover, the building energy performance modelling tools TRNSYS (TRaNsient System Simulation program) and TRNFlow (TRaNsient Flow) have been used to determine its energy performance, and the infiltrations’ identification was carried out by means of infrared thermography. The low levels of infiltrations obtained suggest that this house may comply with the Passive House standard.

Keywords: airtightness, blower door, trnflow, infrared thermography

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Ágota Ábrahám, Md Nurul Islam, Karimane Zeghbib, Gábor Kemenesi, Sazeda Akter

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Collecting palm sap as a food source is an everyday practice in some parts of the world. However, the consumption of palm juice has been associated with regular infections and epidemics in parts of Bangladesh. This is attributed to fruit-eating bats and other vertebrates or invertebrates native to the area, contaminating the food with their body secretions during the collection process. The frequent intake of palm juice, whether as a processed food product or in its unprocessed form, is a common phenomenon in large areas. The range of pathogens suitable for human infection resulting from this practice is not yet fully understood. Additionally, the high sugar content of the liquid makes it an ideal culture medium for certain bacteria, which can easily propagate and potentially harm consumers. Rapid diagnostics, especially in remote locations, could mitigate health risks associated with palm juice consumption. The primary objective of this research is the rapid genomic detection and risk assessment of bacteria that may cause infections in humans through the consumption of palm juice. Utilizing state-of-the-art third-generation Nanopore metagenomic sequencing technology based on 16S rRNA, and identified bacteria primarily involved in fermenting processes. The swift metagenomic analysis, coupled with the widespread availability and portability of Nanopore products (including real-time analysis options), proves advantageous for detecting harmful pathogens in food sources without relying on extensive industry resources and testing.

Keywords: raw date palm sap, NGS, metabarcoding, food safety

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Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

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Authors: Dimiter M. Dimitrov, Abdullah Sadaawi

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The National Assessment for Schools (NAFS) in Saudi Arabia consists of standardized tests in Mathematics, Reading, and Science for school grade levels 3, 6, and 9. One main goal is to classify students into four categories of NAFS performance (minimal, basic, proficient, and advanced) by schools and the entire national sample. The NAFS scoring and equating is performed on a bounded scale (D-scale: ranging from 0 to 1) in the framework of the recently developed “D-scoring method of measurement.” The specificity of the NAFS measurement framework and data complexity presented both challenges and opportunities to (a) the estimation of score reliability for schools, (b) setting cut-scores for the classification of students into categories of performance, and (c) generating plausible values for distributions of student performance on the D-scale. The estimation of score reliability at the school level was performed in the framework of generalizability theory (GT), with students “nested” within schools and test items “nested” within test forms. The GT design was executed via a multilevel modeling syntax code in R. Cut-scores (on the D-scale) for the classification of students into performance categories was derived via a recently developed method of standard setting, referred to as “Response Vector for Mastery” (RVM) method. For each school, the classification of students into categories of NAFS performance was based on distributions of plausible values for the students’ scores on NAFS tests by grade level (3, 6, and 9) and subject (Mathematics, Reading, and Science). Plausible values (on the D-scale) for each individual student were generated via random selection from a statistical logit-normal distribution with parameters derived from the student’s D-score and its conditional standard error, SE(D). All procedures related to D-scoring, equating, generating plausible values, and classification of students into performance levels were executed via a computer program in R developed for the purpose of NAFS data analysis.

Keywords: large-scale assessment, reliability, generalizability theory, plausible values

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Authors: Yanping Liao, Congcong He, Ruigang Zhao

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The application of magnetocardiography signals to detect cardiac electrical function is a new technology developed in recent years. The magnetocardiography signal is detected with Superconducting Quantum Interference Devices (SQUID) and has considerable advantages over electrocardiography (ECG). It is difficult to extract Magnetocardiography (MCG) signal which is buried in the noise, which is a critical issue to be resolved in cardiac monitoring system and MCG applications. In order to remove the severe background noise, the Total Variation (TV) regularization method is proposed to denoise MCG signal. The approach transforms the denoising problem into a minimization optimization problem and the Majorization-minimization algorithm is applied to iteratively solve the minimization problem. However, traditional TV regularization method tends to cause step effect and lacks constraint adaptability. In this paper, an improved TV regularization method for denoising MCG signal is proposed to improve the denoising precision. The improvement of this method is mainly divided into three parts. First, high-order TV is applied to reduce the step effect, and the corresponding second derivative matrix is used to substitute the first order. Then, the positions of the non-zero elements in the second order derivative matrix are determined based on the peak positions that are detected by the detection window. Finally, adaptive constraint parameters are defined to eliminate noises and preserve signal peak characteristics. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that this algorithm can effectively improve the output signal-to-noise ratio and has superior performance.

Keywords: constraint parameters, derivative matrix, magnetocardiography, regular term, total variation

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Authors: A. Flammini, R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi

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The increase of air surface temperature at global scale is a fact, with values around 0.85 ºC since the late nineteen century, as well as a significant change in main features of rainfall regime. Nevertheless, the detected climatic changes are not equally distributed all over the world, but exhibit specific characteristics in different regions. Therefore, studying the evolution of climatic indices in different geographical areas with a prefixed standard approach becomes very useful in order to analyze the existence of climatic trend and compare results. In this work, a methodology to investigate the climatic change and its effects on a wide set of climatic indices is proposed and applied at regional scale in the case study of a Mediterranean area, Umbria region in Italy. From data of the available temperature stations, nine temperature indices have been obtained and the existence of trends has been checked by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, while the non-parametric Pettitt test and the parametric Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) have been applied to detect the presence of break points. In addition, aimed to characterize the rainfall regime, data from 11 rainfall stations have been used and a trend analysis has been performed on cumulative annual rainfall depth, daily rainfall, rainy days, and dry periods length. The results show a general increase in any temperature indices, even if with a trend pattern dependent of indices and stations, and a general decrease of cumulative annual rainfall and average daily rainfall, with a time rainfall distribution over the year different from the past.

Keywords: climatic change, temperature, rainfall regime, trend analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: J. Pazourek, K. Šmejkal, P. Kollár, J. Rajchard, J. Šinko, Z. Balounová, E. Vlková, H. Salmonová

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Pectinatella magnifica (Leidy, 1851) is an invasive freshwater animal that lives in colonies. A colony of Pectinatella magnifica (a gelatinous blob) can be up to several feet in diameter large and under favorable conditions it exhibits an extreme growth rate. Recently European countries around rivers of Elbe, Oder, Danube, Rhine and Vltava have confirmed invasion of Pectinatella magnifica, including freshwater reservoirs in South Bohemia (Czech Republic). Our project (Czech Science Foundation, GAČR P503/12/0337) is focused onto biology and chemistry of Pectinatella magnifica. We monitor the organism occurrence in selected South Bohemia ponds and sandpits during the last years, collecting information about physical properties of surrounding water, and sampling the colonies for various analyses (classification, maps of secondary metabolites, toxicity tests). Because the gelatinous matrix is during the colony lifetime also a host for algae, bacteria and cyanobacteria (co-habitants), in this contribution, we also applied a high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method for determination of potentially present cyanobacterial toxins (microcystin-LR, microcystin-RR, nodularin). Results from the last 3-year monitoring show that these toxins are under limit of detection (LOD), so that they do not represent a danger yet. The final goal of our study is to assess toxicity risks related to fresh water resources invaded by Pectinatella magnifica, and to understand the process of invasion, which can enable to control it.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, fresh water resources, Pectinatella magnifica invasion, toxicity monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Sabina-Adriana Floria, Marius Gavrilescu, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Neuroevolution is a subfield of artificial intelligence used to solve various problems in different application areas. Specifically, neuroevolution is a technique that applies biologically inspired methods to generate neural network architectures and optimize their parameters automatically. In this paper, we use different biologically inspired optimization algorithms in an ensemble strategy with the aim of training multilayer perceptron neural networks, resulting in regression models used to simulate the industrial chemical process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. In addition, the initial conditions that were taken into account during the design and commissioning of the installation can change over time, which leads to the need to add new mixes to adjust the operating conditions for the desired purpose, e.g., material properties and energy saving. The present approach follows the study by simulation of a process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials, i.e., the modeling and optimization of the process. Optimization aims to determine the working conditions that minimize the emissions represented by nitrogen monoxide. We first use a search procedure to find the best values for the parameters of various biologically inspired optimization algorithms. Then, we propose an adaptive ensemble strategy that uses only a subset of the best algorithms identified in the search stage. The adaptive ensemble strategy combines the results of selected algorithms and automatically assigns more processing capacity to the more efficient algorithms. Their efficiency may also vary at different stages of the optimization process. In a given ensemble iteration, the most efficient algorithms aim to maintain good convergence, while the less efficient algorithms can improve population diversity. The proposed adaptive ensemble strategy outperforms the individual optimizers and the non-adaptive ensemble strategy in convergence speed, and the obtained results provide lower error values.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, neuroevolution, ensembles, bricks, emission minimization

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Authors: Hossein Tavallali, Mohammad Ali Karimi, Gohar Deilamy-Rad

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The proposed method for speciation, preconcentration and determination of Fe(II) and Fe(III) in pharmaceutical products was developed using of alumina-coated magnetite nanoparticles (Fe₃O₄/Al₂O₃ NPs) as solid phase extraction (SPE) sorbent in magnetic mixed hemimicell solid phase extraction (MMHSPE) technique followed by flame atomic absorption spectrometry analysis. The procedure is based on complexation of Fe(II) with 1, 10-phenanthroline (OP) as complexing reagent for Fe(II) that immobilized on the modified Fe₃O₄/Al₂O₃ NPs. The extraction and concentration process for pharmaceutical sample was carried out in a single step by mixing the extraction solvent, magnetic adsorbents under ultrasonic action. Then, the adsorbents were isolated from the complicated matrix easily with an external magnetic field. Fe(III) ions determined after facility reduced to Fe(II) by added a proper reduction agent to sample solutions. Compared with traditional methods, the MMHSPE method simplified the operation procedure and reduced the analysis time. Various influencing parameters on the speciation and preconcentration of trace iron, such as pH, sample volume, amount of sorbent, type and concentration of eluent, were studied. Under the optimized operating conditions, the preconcentration factor of the modified nano magnetite for Fe(II) 167 sample was obtained. The detection limits and linear range of this method for iron were 1.0 and 9.0 - 175 ng.mL⁻¹, respectively. Also the relative standard deviation for five replicate determinations of 30.00 ng.mL^-1 Fe²⁺ was 2.3%.

Keywords: Alumina-Coated magnetite nanoparticles, Magnetic Mixed Hemimicell Solid-Phase Extraction, Fe(ΙΙ) and Fe(ΙΙΙ), pharmaceutical sample

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Authors: O. O. Aiyelokun, O. A. Agbede

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Numerical modelling of groundwater flow can be susceptible to calibration errors due to lack of adequate ground-based hydro-metrological stations in river basins. Groundwater resources management in Southwest Nigeria is currently challenged by overexploitation, lack of planning and monitoring, urbanization and climate change; hence to adopt models as decision support tools for sustainable management of groundwater; they must be adequately calibrated. Since river basins in Southwest Nigeria are characterized by missing data, and lack of adequate ground-based hydro-meteorological stations; the need for adopting satellite-based data for constructing distributed models is crucial. This study seeks to evaluate the suitability of satellite-based data as substitute for ground-based, for computing boundary conditions; by determining if ground and satellite based meteorological data fit well in Ogun and Oshun River basins. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset was firstly obtained in daily form and converted to monthly form for the period of 432 months (January 1979 to June, 2014). Afterwards, ground-based meteorological data for Ikeja (1981-2010), Abeokuta (1983-2010), and Oshogbo (1981-2010) were compared with CFSR data using Goodness of Fit (GOF) statistics. The study revealed that based on mean absolute error (MEA), coefficient of correlation, (r) and coefficient of determination (R²); all meteorological variables except wind speed fit well. It was further revealed that maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall had high range of index of agreement (d) and ratio of standard deviation (rSD), implying that CFSR dataset could be used to compute boundary conditions such as groundwater recharge and potential evapotranspiration. The study concluded that satellite-based data such as the CFSR should be used as input when constructing groundwater flow models in river basins in Southwest Nigeria, where majority of the river basins are partially gaged and characterized with long missing hydro-metrological data.

Keywords: boundary condition, goodness of fit, groundwater, satellite-based data

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Kazushige Wada, Mayuko Ueda

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In the present study, we reanalyzed lapse errors in the last phase of a job, by re-counting near lapse errors and increasing the number of participants. We also examined the results of this study from the perspective of prospective memory (PM), which concerns future actions. This study was designed to investigate whether perceiving the importance of PM tasks caused lapse errors in the last phase of a job and to determine if such errors could be explained from the perspective of PM processing. Participants (N = 34) conducted a computerized clicking task, in which they clicked on 10 figures that they had learned in advance in 8 blocks of 10 trials. Participants were requested to click the check box in the start display of a block and to click the checking off box in the finishing display. This task was a PM task. As a measure of PM performance, we counted the number of omission errors caused by forgetting to check off in the finishing display, which was defined as a lapse error. The perceived importance was manipulated by different instructions. Half the participants in the highly important task condition were instructed that checking off was very important, because equipment would be overloaded if it were not done. The other half in the not important task condition was instructed only about the location and procedure for checking off. Furthermore, we controlled workload and the emotion of surprise to confirm the effect of demand capacity and attention. To manipulate emotions during the clicking task, we suddenly presented a photo of a traffic accident and the sound of a skidding car followed by an explosion. Workload was manipulated by requesting participants to press the 0 key in response to a beep. Results indicated too few forgetting induced lapse errors to be analyzed. However, there was a weak main effect of the perceived importance of the check task, in which the mouse moved to the “END” button before moving to the check box in the finishing display. Especially, the highly important task group showed more such near lapse errors, than the not important task group. Neither surprise, nor workload affected the occurrence of near lapse errors. These results imply that high perceived importance of PM tasks impair task performance. On the basis of the multiprocess framework of PM theory, we have suggested that PM task performance in this experiment relied not on monitoring PM tasks, but on spontaneous retrieving.

Keywords: prospective memory, perceived importance, lapse errors, multi process framework of prospective memory.

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Authors: S. Ziaran, M. Musil, M. Cekan, O. Chlebo

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The paper analyzes the response of buildings and industrially structures on seismic waves (low frequency mechanical vibration) generated by blasting operations. The principles of seismic analysis can be applied for different kinds of excitation such as: earthquakes, wind, explosions, random excitation from local transportation, periodic excitation from large rotating and/or machines with reciprocating motion, metal forming processes such as forging, shearing and stamping, chemical reactions, construction and earth moving work, and other strong deterministic and random energy sources caused by human activities. The article deals with the response of seismic, low frequency, mechanical vibrations generated by nearby blasting operations on a residential home. The goal was to determine the fundamental natural frequencies of the measured structure; therefore it is important to determine the resonant frequencies to design a suitable modal damping. The article also analyzes the package of seismic waves generated by blasting (Primary waves – P-waves and Secondary waves S-waves) and investigated the transfer regions. For the detection of seismic waves resulting from an explosion, the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and modal analysis, in the frequency domain, is used and the signal was acquired and analyzed also in the time domain. In the conclusions the measured results of seismic waves caused by blasting in a nearby quarry and its effect on a nearby structure (house) is analyzed. The response on the house, including the fundamental natural frequency and possible fatigue damage is also assessed.

Keywords: building structure, seismic waves, spectral analysis, structural response

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Authors: Erwan Negre, Ewan J. O'Connor, Juha Toivonen

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The need for CO2 monitoring technologies grows simultaneously with the worldwide concerns regarding environmental challenges. To that purpose, we developed a compact coherent all-fiber ranged-resolved Differential Absorption Lidar (RR-DIAL). It has been designed along a tunable 2x1fiber optic switch set to a frequency of 1 Hz between two Distributed FeedBack (DFB) lasers emitting in the continuous-wave mode at 1571.41 nm (absorption line of CO2) and 1571.25 nm (CO2 absorption-free line), with linewidth and tuning range of respectively 1 MHz and 3 nm over operating wavelength. A three stages amplification through Erbium and Erbium-Ytterbium doped fibers coupled to a Radio Frequency (RF) driven Acousto-Optic Modulator (AOM) generates 100 ns pulses at a repetition rate from 10 to 30 kHz with a peak power up to 2.5 kW and a spatial resolution of 15 m, allowing fast and highly resolved CO2 profiles. The same afocal collection system is used for the output of the laser source and the backscattered light which is then directed to a circulator before being mixed with the local oscillator for heterodyne detection. Packaged in an easily transportable box which also includes a server and a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) card for on-line data processing and storing, our setup allows an effective and quick deployment for versatile in-situ analysis, whether it be vertical atmospheric monitoring, large field mapping or sequestration site continuous oversight. Setup operation and results from initial field measurements will be discussed.

Keywords: CO2 profiles, coherent DIAL, in-situ atmospheric sensing, near infrared fiber source

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Authors: Benchouala Amira, Bojic Clement, Poupin Pascal, Cossu Leguille-carole

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The objective of this study is to evaluate in vitro the cytotoxic and androgenic potential of several antifungal molecules (amphotericin B, econazole, ketoconazole and miconazole) on MDA-Kb2 cell lines. This biological model is an effective tool for the detection of endocrine disruptors because it responds well to the main agonist of the androgen receptor (testosterone) and also to an antagonist: flutamide. The cytotoxicity of each chemical compound tested was measured using an MTT assay (tetrazolium salt, 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide) which measures the activity of the reductase function of mitochondrial succinate dehydrogenase enzymes of cultured cells. This complementary cytotoxicity test is essential to ensure that the effects of reduction in luminescence intensity observed during androgenic tests are only attributable to the anti-androgenic action of the compounds tested and not to their possible cytotoxic properties. Tests of the androgenic activity of antifungals show that these compounds do not have the capacity to induce transcription of the luciferase gene. These compounds do not exert an androgenic effect on MDA-Kb2 cells in culture for the environmental concentrations tested. The addition of flutamide for the same tested concentrations of antifungal molecules reduces the luminescence induced by amphotericin B, econazole and miconazole, which is explained by a strong interaction of these molecules with flutamide which may have a greater toxic effect than when tested alone. The cytotoxicity test shows that econazole and ketoconazole can cause cell death at certain concentrations tested. This cell mortality is perhaps induced by a direct or indirect action on deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), ribonucleic acid (RNA) or proteins necessary for cell division.

Keywords: cytotoxicity, androgenic potential, antifungals, MDA-Kb2

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Authors: Simona Pileviciene

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On 24th January 2014, Lithuania notified two primary cases of African swine fever (ASF) in wild boars. The animals were tested positive for ASF virus (ASFV) genome by real-time PCR at the National Reference Laboratory for ASF in Lithuania (NRL), results were confirmed by the European Union Reference Laboratory for African swine fever (CISA-INIA). Intensive wild and domestic animal monitoring program was started. During the period of 2014-2017 ASF was confirmed in two large commercial pig holding with the highest biosecurity. Pigs were killed and destroyed. Since 2014 ASF outbreak territory from east and south has expanded to the middle of Lithuania. Diagnosis by PCR is one of the highly recommended diagnostic methods by World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) for diagnosis of ASF. The aim of the present study was to compare singleplex real-time PCR assays to a duplex assay allowing the identification of ASF and internal control in a single PCR tube and to compare primers, that target the p72 gene (ASF 250 bp and ASF 75 bp) effectivity. Multiplex real-time PCR assays prove to be less time consuming and cost-efficient and therefore have a high potential to be applied in the routine analysis. It is important to have effective and fast method that allows virus detection at the beginning of disease for wild boar population and in outbreaks for domestic pigs. For experiments, we used reference samples (INIA, Spain), and positive samples from infected animals in Lithuania. Results show 100% sensitivity and specificity.

Keywords: African swine fewer, real-time PCR, wild boar, domestic pig

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Authors: Ahmad Ali Shahid, M Shakil Shaukat

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Agriculture is the backbone of economy of Pakistan and Cotton is the major agricultural export and supreme source of raw fiber for our textile industry. To combat against the developing resistance in the target insects and combating these challenges wholesomely, a novel combination of pyramided/stacked genes was conceptualized and later realized, through the means of biotechnology i.e., transformation of three genes namely, Cry1Ac, Cry2A, and EPSP synthase (glyphosate tolerant) genes in the locally cultivated cotton variety. The progenies of the transformed plants were successfully raised and screened under the tunnel conditions for two generations and the present study focused on the screening of plants which were confirmed for containing all of these three genes and their expressions. Initially, the screening was done through glyphosate spray assay and the plants which were healthy and showed no damage on leaves were selected after 07 days of spray. In the laboratory, the DNA of these plants were isolated and subjected to amplification of the three genes. Thus, seventeen out of twenty were confirmed positive for Cry1Ac gene and ten out of twenty were positive for Cry2A gene and all twenty were positive for presence of EPSP synthase gene. Then, the ten plant samples which were confirmed with presence of all three genes were subjected to expression analysis of these proteins through ELISA. The results showed that eight out of ten plants were actively expressing the three transgenes. Real-time PCR was also done to quantify the expression levels of the EPSP synthase gene. Finally, eight plants were confirmed for the presence and active expression of all three genes in T3 generation of the triple gene transformed cotton. These plants may be subjected to T4 generation to develop a new stable variety in due course of time.

Keywords: agriculture, cotton, transformation, cry genes, ELISA, PCR

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Authors: Mohamed Dhouibi, Bogdan Stirbu, Chabotier André, Marc Pirlot

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Internal barrel wear is a major factor affecting the performance of small caliber guns in their different life phases. Wear analysis is, therefore, a very important process for understanding how wear occurs, where it takes place, and how it spreads with the aim on improving the accuracy and effectiveness of small caliber weapons. This paper discusses the measurement and analysis of combustion chamber wear for a small-caliber gun using a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM). Initially, two different NATO small caliber guns: 5.56x45mm and 7.62x51mm, are considered. A Micura Zeiss Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) equipped with the VAST XTR gold high-end sensor is used to measure the inner profile of the two guns every 300-shot cycle. The CMM parameters, such us (i) the measuring force, (ii) the measured points, (iii) the time of masking, and (iv) the scanning velocity, are investigated. In order to ensure minimum measurement error, a statistical analysis is adopted to select the reliable CMM parameters combination. Next, two measurement strategies are developed to capture the shape and the volume of each gun chamber. Thus, a task-specific measurement uncertainty (TSMU) analysis is carried out for each measurement plan. Different approaches of TSMU evaluation have been proposed in the literature. This paper discusses two different techniques. The first is the substitution method described in ISO 15530 part 3. This approach is based on the use of calibrated workpieces with similar shape and size as the measured part. The second is the Monte Carlo simulation method presented in ISO 15530 part 4. Uncertainty evaluation software (UES), also known as the Virtual Coordinate Measuring Machine (VCMM), is utilized in this technique to perform a point-by-point simulation of the measurements. To conclude, a comparison between both approaches is performed. Finally, the results of the measurements are verified through calibrated gauges of several dimensions specially designed for the two barrels. On this basis, an experimental database is developed for further analysis aiming to quantify the relationship between the volume of wear and the muzzle velocity of small caliber guns.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, measurement uncertainty, erosion and wear volume, small caliber guns

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Authors: Ahmad Jawad Fardin

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Over 60% of patients with breast cancer in Afghanistan present late with advanced stage III and IV, a major cause for the poor survival rate. The objectives of this study were to identify the contributing factors for the diagnosis and treatment delay and its outcome. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 318 patients with histologically confirmed breast cancer in the oncology department of Jamhoriat hospital, which is the first and only national cancer center in Afghanistan; data were collected from medical records and interviews conducted with women diagnosed with breast cancer, linear regression and logistic regression were used for analysis. Patient delay was defined as the time from first recognition of symptoms until first medical consultation and doctor form first consultation with a health care provider until histological confirmation of breast cancer. The mean age of patients was 49.2+_ 11.5years. The average time for the final diagnosis of breast cancer was 8.5 months; most patients had ductal carcinoma 260.7 (82%). Factors associated with delay were low education level 76% poor socioeconomic and cultural conditions 81% lack of cancer center 73% lack of screening 19%. The stage distribution was as follows stage IV 4 22% stage III 44.4% stage II 29.3% stage I 4.3%. Complex associated factors were identified to delayed the diagnosis of breast cancer and increased adverse outcomes consequently. Raising awareness and education in women, the establishment of cancer centers and providing accessible diagnosis service and screening, training of general practitioners; required to promote early detection, diagnosis and treatment.

Keywords: delayed diagnosis and poor outcome, breast cancer in Afghanistan, poor outcome of delayed breast cancer treatment, breast cancer delayed diagnosis and treatment in Afghanistan

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Authors: Mojtaba Mirmontazemi, Habibollah Dadgar

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Bone is the most common metastasis site in some advanced malignancies, such as prostate and breast cancer. Bone metastasis generally indicates fewer prognostic factors in these patients. Different radiological and molecular imaging modalities are used for detecting bone lesions. Molecular imaging including computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, planar bone scintigraphy, single-photon emission tomography, and positron emission tomography as noninvasive visualization of the biological occurrences has the potential to exact examination, characterization, risk stratification and comprehension of human being diseases. Also, it is potent to straightly visualize targets, specify clearly cellular pathways and provide precision medicine for molecular targeted therapies. These advantages contribute implement personalized treatment for each patient. Currently, NaF PET/CT has significantly replaced standard bone scintigraphy for the detection of bone metastases. On one hand, 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT has gained high attention for accurate staging of primary prostate cancer and restaging after biochemical recurrence. On the other hand, FDG PET/CT is not commonly used in osseous metastases of prostate and breast cancer as well as its usage is limited to staging patients with aggressive primary tumors or localizing the site of disease. In this article, we examine current studies about FDG, NaF, and PSMA PET/CT images in bone metastases diagnostic utility and assess response to treatment in patients with breast and prostate cancer.

Keywords: skeletal metastases, fluorodeoxyglucose, sodium fluoride, molecular imaging, precision medicine, prostate cancer (68Ga-PSMA-11)

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Authors: O. Anwar Beg, Armghan Zubair, Sireetorn Kuharat, Meisam Babaie

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In this work, motivated by rocket channel cooling applications, we describe recent CFD simulations of turbulent convective heat transfer in mini-channels at different aspect ratios. ANSYS FLUENT software has been employed with a mean average error of 5.97% relative to Forrest’s MIT cooling channel study (2014) at a Reynolds number of 50,443 with a Prandtl number of 3.01. This suggests that the simulation model created for turbulent flow was suitable to set as a foundation for the study of different aspect ratios in the channel. Multiple aspect ratios were also considered to understand the influence of high aspect ratios to analyse the best performing cooling channel, which was determined to be the highest aspect ratio channels. Hence, the approximate 28:1 aspect ratio provided the best characteristics to ensure effective cooling. A mesh convergence study was performed to assess the optimum mesh density to collect accurate results. Hence, for this study an element size of 0.05mm was used to generate 579,120 for proper turbulent flow simulation. Deploying a greater bias factor would increase the mesh density to the furthest edges of the channel which would prove to be useful if the focus of the study was just on a single side of the wall. Since a bulk temperature is involved with the calculations, it is essential to ensure a suitable bias factor is used to ensure the reliability of the results. Hence, in this study we have opted to use a bias factor of 5 to allow greater mesh density at both edges of the channel. However, the limitations on mesh density and hardware have curtailed the sophistication achievable for the turbulence characteristics. Also only linear rectangular channels were considered, i.e. curvature was ignored. Furthermore, we only considered conventional water coolant. From this CFD study the variation of aspect ratio provided a deeper appreciation of the effect of small to high aspect ratios with regard to cooling channels. Hence, when considering an application for the channel, the geometry of the aspect ratio must play a crucial role in optimizing cooling performance.

Keywords: rocket channel cooling, ANSYS FLUENT CFD, turbulence, convection heat transfer

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Authors: Babar Ali, Mohammad Rashid, Showkat Rasool Mir, Mohammad Ali, Saiba Shams

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Background: The plant Camellia sinensis (Theaceae) is an evergreen shrub indigenous to Assam (India) and parts of China and Japan. Traditional Chinese medicine has recommended green tea for headaches, body aches and pains, digestion, enhancement of immune defense, detoxification, as an energizer and to prolong life. The leaves have more than 700 chemical constituents, among which flavanoids, amino acids, vitamins (C, E, K), caffeine and polysaccharides. Adulteration and substitution may affect the quality of formulation containing tea leaves. Standardization of medicinal preparation is essential for further therapeutic results and for global acceptance. Hence, chromatographic fingerprint profiles were carried out for establishing the standards. Materials and methods: TLC studies for methanolic extracts of the leaves of Camellia sinensis were carried out in a new developed solvent system, Toluene: Ethyl acetate: Formic acid (7:3:1). TLC plates were dried in air, visualized in UV at wavelengths 254 nm and 366 nm and photographed. Results: Results provide valuable clue regarding their polarity and selection of solvents for separation of phytochemicals. Fingerprinting of methanolic extract of Camellia sinensis leaves revealed the presence of various phytochemicals in UV at 254 nm and 366 nm. Conclusion: Fingerprint profile is quite helpful in setting up of standards and thus to keep a check on intentional/unintentional adulteration. TLC offers major advantages over other conventional chromatographic techniques such as unsurpassed flexibility (esp. stationary and mobile phase), choice of detection wavelength, user friendly, rapid and cost effective.

Keywords: Cammelia sinensis Linn., standardization, methanolic extract, thin layer chromatography

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Authors: Najmeh Jafari, Sona Rostampour Yasouri

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Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an acute hemorrhagic disease. This disease is one of the common diseases between humans and animals, transmitted through tick bites or contact with the blood and secretions or carcasses of infected animals and humans. CCHF is more common in people who work with livestock, such as ranchers, butchers, farmers, slaughterhouse workers, healthcare workers, etc. Its hospital prevalence is also very high. Considering that CCHF can be transmitted through the consumption of food such as beef and sheep meat, this study aims to quickly identify and diagnose the Crimean-Congo fever virus in suspected patients through real-time PCR technique. In the summer of 1402, 20 blood samples were collected separately from Ahvaz and Gilan hospitals. An extraction kit was used to extract the virus RNA. Primers and probes were designed based on the S genomic region, the conserved region in CCHFV. Then, a real-time PCR technique was performed with specific primers and probes. It should be noted that the mentioned technique was repeated several times. The number of 4 samples from the examined samples was determined positive by real-time PCR. This technique has high sensitivity and specificity and the possibility of rapid detection of CCHFV. Therefore, the above method is a good candidate for quick disease diagnosis. By diagnosing the disease, the treatment process can be done faster, and the best prevention methods can be used to control the disease and prevent the death of patients.

Keywords: ahvaz, crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever, gilan, real time PCR

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Authors: Fatima Muhammad Shitu

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In language learning, Second language learners like their native speaker counter parts, commit errors in their attempt to achieve competence in the target language. The realm of Collocation has to do with meaning relation between lexical items. In all human language, there is a kind of ‘natural order’ in which words are arranged or relate to one another in sentences so much so that when a word occurs in a given context, the related or naturally co -occurring word will automatically come to the mind. It becomes an error, therefore, if students inappropriately pair or arrange such ‘naturally’ co – occurring lexical items in a text. It has been observed that most of the second language learners in this research group commit collocational errors. A study of this kind is very significant as it gives insight into the kinds of errors committed by learners. This will help the language teacher to be able to identify the sources and causes of such errors as well as correct them thereby guiding, helping and leading the learners towards achieving some level of competence in the language. The aim of the study is to understand the nature of these errors as stumbling blocks to effective essay writing. The objective of the study is to identify the errors, analyse their structural compositions so as to determine whether there are similarities between students in this regard and to find out whether there are patterns to these kinds of errors which will enable the researcher to understand their sources and causes. As a descriptive research, the researcher samples some nine hundred essays collected from three hundred undergraduate learners of English as a second language in the Federal College of Education, Kano, North- West Nigeria, i.e. three essays per each student. The essays which were given on three different lecture times were of similar thematic preoccupations (i.e. same topics) and length (i.e. same number of words). The essays were written during the lecture hour at three different lecture occasions. The errors were identified in a systematic manner whereby errors so identified were recorded only once even if they occur severally in students’ essays. The data was collated using percentages in which the identified number of occurrences were converted accordingly in percentages. The findings from the study indicates that there are similarities as well as regular and repeated errors which provided a pattern. Based on the pattern identified, the conclusion is that students’ collocational errors are attributable to poor teaching and learning which resulted in wrong generalisation of rules.

Keywords: collocations, errors, second language learning, ESL students

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Authors: Tabugbo B. Ifeyinwa, Josephat O. Ogbuagu, Okeke A. Princewill, Victor C. Eze

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The increasing amount of plastic pollution in maritime settings poses a substantial risk to the functioning of ecosystems and the preservation of biodiversity. This comprehensive analysis combines the most recent data on the environmental effects of pollution from macroplastics, microplastics, and nanoplastics within marine ecosystems. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the cumulative impacts that plastic waste accumulates on marine life by outlining the origins, processes, and ecological repercussions connected with each size category of plastic debris. Microplastics and nanoplastics have more sneaky effects that are controlled by chemicals. These effects can get through biological barriers and affect the health of cells and the whole body. Compared to macroplastics, which primarily contribute to physical harm through entanglement and ingestion by marine fauna, microplastics, and nanoplastics are associated with non-physical effects. The review underlines a vital need for research that crosses disciplinary boundaries to untangle the intricate interactions that the various sizes of plastic pollution have with marine animals, evaluate the long-term ecological repercussions, and identify effective measures for mitigating the effects of plastic pollution. Additionally, we urge governmental interventions and worldwide cooperation to solve this pervasive environmental concern. Specifically, we identify significant knowledge gaps in the detection and effect assessment of nanoplastics. To protect marine biodiversity and preserve ecosystem services, this review highlights how urgent it is to address the broad spectrum of plastic pollution.

Keywords: macroplastic pollution, marine ecosystem, microplastic pollution, nanoplastic pollution

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