Search results for: regional events

Authors: Stefan Bauer, Josef Frysak

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According to the scientific information management literature, the improper use of information technology (e.g. personal computers) by employees are one main cause for operational and information security loss events. Therefore, organizations implement information security awareness programs to increase employees’ awareness to further prevention of loss events. However, in many cases these information security awareness programs consist of conventional delivery methods like posters, leaflets, or internal messages to make employees aware of information security policies. We assume that a viral information security awareness video might be more effective medium than conventional methods commonly used by organizations. The purpose of this research is to develop a viral video artifact to improve employee security behavior concerning information technology.

Keywords: information security awareness, delivery methods, viral videos, employee security behavior

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Authors: Tesfay Mekonnen Weldegerima

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Analysis of precipitation time series is a fundamental undertaking in meteorology and hydrology. The extreme precipitation scenario of the Kulfo River watershed is studied using wavelet analysis and atmospheric transport, a lagrangian trajectory model. Daily rainfall data for the 1991-2020 study periods are collected from the office of the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute. Meteorological fields on a three-dimensional grid at 0.5o x 0.5o spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution are also obtained from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Wavelet analysis of the daily precipitation processed with the lag-1 coefficient reveals some high power recurred once every 38 to 60 days with greater than 95% confidence for red noise. The analysis also identified inter-annual periodicity in the periods 2002 - 2005 and 2017 - 2019. Back trajectory analysis for 3-day periods up to May 19/2011, indicates the Indian Ocean source; trajectories crossed the eastern African escarpment to arrive at the Kulfo watershed. Atmospheric flows associated with the Western Indian monsoon redirected by the low-level Somali winds and Arabian ridge are responsible for the moisture supply. The time-localization of the wavelet power spectrum yields valuable hydrological information, and the back trajectory approaches provide useful characterization of air mass source.

Keywords: extreme precipitation events, power spectrum, back trajectory, kulfo watershed

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak, Eric P. Salathé Jr, Jiemjai Kreasuwan

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Dynamical downscaling of the ECHAM5 global climate model is applied at 20-km horizontal resolution using the WRF regional climate model (WRF-ECHAM5), to project changes from 1990–2009 to 2045–2064 of temperature and precipitation over the Upper Ping River Basin. The analysis found that monthly changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the basin for the 2045-2064 compared to the 1990-2009 are revealed over the basin all months, with the largest warmer in December and the smallest warmer in February. The future simulated precipitation is smaller than that of the baseline value in May, July and August, while increasing of precipitation is revealed during pre-monsoon (April) and late monsoon (September and October). This means that the rainy season likely becomes longer and less intensified during the rainy season. During the cool-dry season and hot-dry season, precipitation is substantial increasing over the basin. For the annual cycle of changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the upper Ping River basin, the largest warmer in the mean temperature over the basin is 1.93 °C in December and the smallest is 0.77 °C in February. Increase in nighttime temperature (minimum temperature) is larger than that of daytime temperature (maximum temperature) during the dry season, especially in wintertime (November to February), resulted in decreasing the diurnal temperature range. The annual and seasonal changes in daily temperature and precipitation averaged over the basin. The annual mean rising are 1.43, 1.54 and 1.30 °C for mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively. The increasing of maximum temperature is larger than that of minimum temperature in all months during the dry season (November to April).

Keywords: climate change, regional climate model, upper Ping River basin, WRF

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Authors: Ufuk Aydın

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The Coda attenuation and frequency dependency of seismic wave are strongly dependent on the effective stresses structures within the upper crust. In this study, the data of three different stations were used to examine the lateral variation of stress. The tectonic structures of these three areas have been examined comparatively using lateral coda tomography. In the study using the single scatter method, the window length selected to be 20 second. Coda values 80 with 94 and frequency dependency values obtained between 0.69 and 1.21. The 1/QC values for the three regions ranged from 0.0012 to 0.017, highlighting the regional differences in the seismotectonic activity of the crust. The lowest absorption values obtained from Erzurum station when the highest absorption values obtained at the Kemaliye station. The low Qc and high frequency dependency values obtained Kemaliye, which indicates that it has highest tectonic activity than other two regions. The seismo-dynamics data obtained from the study found to be in agreement with the tectonic structure of the region.

Keywords: regional coda attenuation, tectonic stress, crustal deformation

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Authors: Mohsen Qasemi

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In the international economic order multilateral trading system which established by General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 (GATT) was dominant until about two decades ago. Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have changed this order and become an important phenomenon. One of the main objectives of the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a central institution of multilateral trading system is raising standards of living. There are many scholars who suggest that WTO should take steps to protect human rights in its activities. Although it has always been opposing views who declare that since WTO has no explicit rule for human rights, it has no human rights related obligations. At the time that the WTO was established, member states began to join RTAs and since then, the escalating growth of these agreements and their effects on multilateral trading system has been controversial. There are some aspects of RTAs that have received too little attention from scholars. It is important to take a different view and evaluate the RTAs based on non-commercial aspects. The present paper seeks to answer this question: which system could be more useful in protecting human rights, RTAs or WTO?

Keywords: WTO, RTAs, human rights, multilateral trading system, non discrimination

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Authors: S. Chowdhury, A. Corlett

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Large tsunamis strike the British Columbia coast every few hundred years. The Cascadia Subduction Zone, which extends along the Pacific coast from Vancouver Island to Northern California is one of the most seismically active regions in Canada. Significant earthquakes have occurred in this region, including the 1700 Cascade Earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 9.2. Based on geological records, experts have predicted a 'great earthquake' of a similar magnitude within this region may happen any time. This earthquake is expected to generate a large tsunami that could impact the coastal communities on Vancouver Island. Since many of these communities are in remote locations, they are more likely to be vulnerable, as the post-earthquake relief efforts would be impacted by the damage to critical road infrastructures. To assess the coastal vulnerability within these communities, a hydrodynamic model has been developed using MIKE-21 software. We have considered a 500 year probabilistic earthquake design criteria including the subsidence in this model. The bathymetry information was collected from Canadian Hydrographic Services (CHS), and National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA). The arial survey was conducted using a Cessna-172 aircraft for the communities, and then the information was converted to generate a topographic digital elevation map. Both survey information was incorporated into the model, and the domain size of the model was about 1000km x 1300km. This model was calibrated with the tsunami occurred off the west coast of Moresby Island on October 28, 2012. The water levels from the model were compared with two tide gauge stations close to the Vancouver Island and the output from the model indicates the satisfactory result. For this study, the design water level was considered as High Water Level plus the Sea Level Rise for 2100 year. The hourly wind speeds from eight directions were collected from different wind stations and used a 200-year return period wind speed in the model for storm events. The regional model was set for 12 hrs simulation period, which takes more than 16 hrs to complete one simulation using double Xeon-E7 CPU computer plus a K-80 GPU. The boundary information for the local model was generated from the regional model. The local model was developed using a high resolution mesh to estimate the coastal flooding for the communities. It was observed from this study that many communities will be effected by the Cascadia tsunami and the inundation maps were developed for the communities. The infrastructures inside the coastal inundation area were identified. Coastal vulnerability planning and resilient design solutions will be implemented to significantly reduce the risk.

Keywords: tsunami, coastal flooding, coastal vulnerable, earthquake, Vancouver, wave propagation

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Authors: Sisay Shine, Frew Tadesse, Zemenu Shiferaw, Lema Mideksa

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Background: Stunting is one of the most important public health problems in Ethiopia with an estimated 44.4% of children less than five years of age are stunted. Thus, this study aimed to assess prevalence and associated factors of stunting among 6-59 months children in pastoral community of Korahay Zone, Somali Regional State, Ethiopia. Objective of the study: To assess prevalence and associated factors of stunting among 6-59 months children in pastoral community of Korahay Zone, Somali Regional State, Ethiopia, 2016. Methods: Community based cross sectional study design was done among 770 children in pastoral community of Korahay Zone. Systematic sampling techniques were used to select households and took child mother pair from each selected households. Data was collected using pre-tested and structured questionnaire. Odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was used to assess level of significance. Result: Prevalence of stunting among 6-59 months age children was 31.9%. Sex (AOR: 1.47, 95%CI 1.02, 2.11), age (AOR: 2.10, 95%CI 1.16, 3.80), maternal education (AOR: 3.42, 95%CI 1.58, 7.41), maternal occupation (AOR: 3.10, 95%CI 1.85, 5.19), monthly income (AOR: 1.47, 95%CI 1.03, 2.09), PNC visits (AOR: 1.59, 95%CI 1.07, 2.37), source of water (AOR: 3.41, 95%CI 1.96, 5.93), toilet availability (AOR: 1.71, 95%CI 1.13, 2.58), first milk feeding (AOR: 3.37, 95%CI 2.27, 5.02) and bottle feeding (AOR: 2.07, 95%CI 1.34, 3.18) were significant predictors of stunting. Conclusion and recommendations: Prevalence of stunting among 6-59 months children was high 31.9%. Lack maternal education, not feeding first milk, unsafe water supply, absence toilet availability and bottle feeding can increase the risk of stunting. So, educating mothers on child feeding practice, sanitation and important of first milk can reduce stunting.

Keywords: dietary, environmental, healthcare, socio-demographic, stunting

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Authors: Nsubuga Bright Titus

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The resource curse is an unavoidable phenomenon among oil producing states in Africa. There is no oil production currently in Uganda although exploration projections set 2020 as the year of initial production. But as the exploration proceeds and Production Sharing Agreements (PSA) are negotiated, so does the anticipation for oil revenues. The Indigenous people of Bunyoro are claiming the right to their indigenous lands through the African Commission on Human and People’s Rights (ACHPR) of the African Union. They urge the commission to investigate the government of Uganda on violations of their human rights. In this paper, oil as a resource curse is examined through the Dutch disease. Regional and global entanglements, as well as the contestation between the indigenous Bunyoro group and the oil industry in Uganda is explored. The paper also demonstrates that oil as a local possibility and national reality has propelled anxiety about oil revenues among various, local actors, State actors, regional and global actors.

Keywords: Entanglements, Extractive resources, Framing, web of relations

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Authors: Christopher Meyer, Laima Gerlitz

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European Ports are about to take an important step towards their future economic development. Existing legislatives such as the European Green Deal are changing the perspective on ports as individual logistic institutions and demand a more holistic view on ports in their characteristic as ecosystem involving several different actors in an interdisciplinary and multilevel approach. A special role is taken by small and medium-sized ports facing the same political restriction and future goals - such as reducing environmental impacts with 2030 and 2050 as targets - while suffering from low financing capacity, outdated infrastructure, low innovation measures and missing political support. In contrast, they are playing a key role in regional economic development and cross-border logistics as well as facilitator for the regional hinterland. Also, in comparison to their big counterparts, small and medium-sized ports are often located within or close to city areas. This does not only bear more challenges especially when it comes to the environmental performance, but can also carry out growth potentials by putting the city as a key actor into the port ecosystem. For city development, the Smart City concept is one of the key strategies currently applied mostly on demonstration level in selected cities. Hence, the basic idea behind is par to the Smart Port concept. Thus, this paper is analysing potential synergetic effects resulting from the application of Smart City and Smart Port concepts for small and medium-sized ports' ecosystems closely located to cities with focus on innovation application, greening measurements and economic performances as well as strategic positioning of the ports in Smart City initiatives.

Keywords: port-city ecosystems, regional development, sustainability transition, innovation policy

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Authors: Carlos Alberto Santamaria Velasco

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The study object of this chapter analyzes the case of the Centro Regional para la Calidad Empresarial (CreCE) starting from an analysis of the theoretical discussion about the universities as actors of the development and generation of enterprises. As well as the promotion of the entrepreneurial culture that they carry out in their environment of influence as part of the linkage and extension actions that have as one of their substantive functions, in addition to teaching and research. The objective is to know the theoretical discussion and the state of art about the entrepreneurial universities from the institutional theory of Douglas North, carrying out a theoretical analysis of the formal and informal factors from the universities linking the specific case of the CReCE. A literature review was carried out in the main journals in the topic of entrepreneurship, about the factors that influence the creation and development of entrepreneurial universities, complementing research in the study of a particular case, CreCE, and how this affects in the transformation of the CUVALLES(Centro Universitario de los Valles) in its way towards an entrepreneurial university.

Keywords: entrepreneurial university, institutional theory, university, entrepreneurial universities

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Authors: Agnese Zviedre

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In 2010 Latvia ratified the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which states that the state will recognize the importance of accessibility to the physical, social, and cultural environment. Nevertheless, accessibility of art and culture in Latvia has become a focal point only since 2020. A study on the impact of cultural consumption and participation done by the Latvian Academy of Culture and the research center “SKDS” results show that art and cultural institutions lack knowledge and understanding of needs and required accessibility measures for people with disabilities to participate in cultural and art events. At the same time, even if art institutions want to create accessible events for people with diverse bodies and minds, many barriers exist, such as budget, lack of time, and lack of knowledge. Even though disability is still largely invisible in the public space, due to recent public campaigns and awareness of the need for accessibility, the media and society are starting to speak about disability as a social issue, not a medical one. Thus, this paper focuses on the first-hand experience of implementing different Western accessibility guidelines and working with communities as a production manager for the multidisciplinary exhibition project “Invisible Lives” in Riga and curator of the education program of Riga Photography Biennial’s 2022 Central Event - Exhibition “Screen Age III: Still Life”. Analyzing two events from the Disability studies perspective, this paper focuses on working with existing knowledge and budget to achieve accessibility.

Keywords: accessibility, contemporary art, curatorial practices, disability studies

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Authors: Shabnam Dadparvar, Laijin Shen

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Undoubtedly, children are one of the biggest assets of any society and it is the duty of all officials to have a systematic plan to educate the next generation and make a better life for children so that they can progress and be effective for their communities. In an effort, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has adopted standards to improve the condition for Izadis children; however, there are challenges that remain; such as: Izadis child abuse, Izadis child labor, Izadis children right’s law, orphans, Izadis street children and etc. In this paper, by a descriptive-analytical method the authors try to discuss the general situation of Izadis children in today s Iraqi Kurdistan and the issues such as drug abuse, Izadis child labor, orphans and Izadis street children. The questions are: How is the situation of Izadis children in Iraqi Kurdistan and what are their challenges? Also, what is the KRG’s strategy and through which ways, they can make a better life for minority children and change their current status? The authors believe that nowadays, the KRG is trying to crack down on problems against Izadis children; however, their effort is not adequate and some other activities should be performed; one of which is passing the Izadis children s law against violence.

Keywords: children right, Iraqi Kurdistan, Izadis children, Kurdistan Regional Government

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Authors: Roy Hanney

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This research study aims to develop an evidential basis to inform strategic development of the film industry in the Solent (south central) region of the UK. The density of the creative industries around the region is driving the growth of jobs. Yet, film production in particular, appears to struggle with field configuration, lacks ecological cohesion, and suffers from underdeveloped ecosystems when compared to other areas bordering the region. Though thriving, a lack of coordinated leadership results in the continued reproduction of an ill-configured, constricted and socio-economically filtered workforce. One that struggles to seize strategic opportunities arising as a consequence of the ongoing investment in UK film production around the west of London. Taking a participatory approach, the study seeks to avoid the universalism of place marketing and focus on the situatedness of the region and its specific cultural, social, and economic contexts. The staging of a series of high profile networking events provided a much needed field configuring activity and enabled the capture of voices of those currently working in the sector. It will also provided the opportunity for an exploratory network mapping of the regional creative industries as a value exchange ecosystem. It is understood that a focus on production is not in itself a solution to the challenges faced in the region. There is a need to address issues of access as a counterbalance to skewed representation among the creative workforces thus the study also aims to report on opportunities for embedding diversity and inclusion in any strategic solutions.

Keywords: creative, industries, ecosystem, ecology

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Authors: Chawarat Rotejanaprasert, Andrew Lawson

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Early detection of unusual health events depends on the ability to detect rapidly any substantial changes in disease, thus facilitating timely public health interventions. To assist public health practitioners to make decisions, statistical methods are adopted to assess unusual events in real time. We introduce a surveillance Kullback-Leibler (SKL) measure for timely detection of disease outbreaks for small area health data. The detection methods are compared with the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate (SCPO) within the framework of Bayesian hierarchical Poisson modeling and applied to a case study of a group of respiratory system diseases observed weekly in South Carolina counties. Properties of the proposed surveillance techniques including timeliness and detection precision are investigated using a simulation study.

Keywords: Bayesian, spatial, temporal, surveillance, prospective

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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The study examines the structural analysis of Chaura Thrust in Himachal Pradesh, India, focusing on the activation timing of Main Central Thrust (MCT) and South Tibetan Detachment System (STDS), mylonitised zones, and the characterization of box fold and its signature in the regional geology of Himachal Himalaya. The research aims to document the Higher Himalayan Out-of-Sequence Thrust (OOST) in Himachal Pradesh, which activated the MCTL and in between a zone south of MCTU. The study also documents the GBM-associated temperature range and the activation of Higher Himalayan Out-of-Sequence Thrust (OOST) in Himachal Pradesh. The findings contribute to understanding the structural analysis of Chaura Thrust and its signature in the regional geology of Himachal Himalaya. The study highlights the significance of microscopic studies in documenting mylonitized zones and identifying various types of crenulated schistosity. The study concludes that Chaura Thrust is not a blind thrust and details the field evidence for the OOST. The study characterizes the box fold and its signature in the regional geology of Himachal Himalaya. The study also documents the activation timing and ages of MCT, STDS, MBT, and MFT and identifies various types of crenulated schistosity under the microscope. The study also highlights the significance of microscopic studies in the structural analysis of Chaura Thrust. Finally, the study documents the activation of Higher Himalayan Out-of-Sequence Thrust (OOST) in Himachal Pradesh and the expectations for strain variation near the OOST.

Keywords: Chaura Thrust, Higher Himalaya, Jhakri Thrust, Main Central Thrust, Out-of-Sequence Thrust, Sarahan Thrust

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Authors: Shunichiro Morishita

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This study examines the factors for attracting foreign guests in the Japanese lodging industry and discusses some measures taken for accepting foreign guests. It reviews three different accommodation providers acclaimed highly by foreign guests, Yamashiroya, Sawanoya and Fuji-Hakone Guest House, and identifies their characteristics. The common points for attracting foreign guests were: 1) making the best use of the old facilities, 2) multilingual signs, guidance and websites, 3) necessary and sufficient communication in English, 4) events and opportunities to experience Japanese culture, 5) omotenashi, warm and homely Japanese hospitality. These findings indicate that foreign guests’ dissatisfaction level can be decreased through internationalization utilizing ICT and by offering multilingual support. On the other hand, their satisfaction level can be increased by encouraging interaction with other guests and local Japanese people, providing events and opportunities to experience Japanese culture and omotenashi, home-style Japanese hospitality.

Keywords: hospitality management, foreign guests, Japanese lodging industry, Omotenashi

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Authors: Kamal Kithsiri Karunadasa Hewawasam Revulge

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This paper is an interpretative historical analysis of Australian migration laws that examines asylum and refugee policies and attitudes in Australia. It looks at major turning points in Australian migration history, and in doing so, the researcher reviewed relevant literature on the aspects crucial to highlighting the current trend of Australian migration policies. The data was collected using secondary data from official government sources, including annual reports, media releases on immigration, inquiry reports, statistical information, and other available literature to identify critical historical events that significantly affected the systematic developments of asylum seekers and refugee policies in Australia and to look at the historical trends of official thinking. A reliance on using these official sources is justified as those are the most convincing sources to analyse the historical events in Australia. Additional literature provides us with critical analyses of the behaviour and culture of the Australian immigration administration. The analytical framework reviewed key Australian Government immigration policies since British colonization and the settlement era of 1787–the 1850s and to the present. The fundamental basis for doing so is that past events and incidents offer us clues and lessons relevant to the present day. Therefore, providing a perspective on migration history in Australia helps analyse how current policymakers' strategies developed and changed over time. Attention is also explicitly focused on Australian asylum and refugee policy internationally, as it helped to broaden the analysis. The finding proved a link between past events and adverse current Australian government policies towards asylum seekers and refugees. It highlighted that Australia's current migration policies are part of a carefully and deliberately planned pattern that arose from the occupation of Australia by early British settlers. In this context, the remarkable point is that the historical events of taking away children from their Australian indigenous parents, widely known as the 'stolen generation' reflected a model of assimilation, or a desire to absorb other cultures into Australian society by fully adopting the settlers' language, their culture, and losing indigenous people's traditions. Current Australian policies towards migrants reflect the same attitude. Hence, it could be argued that policies and attitudes towards asylum seekers and refugees, particularly so-called 'boat people' to some extent, still reflect Australia's earlier colonial and 'white Australia' history.

Keywords: migration law, refugee law, international law, administrative law

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Authors: Xuhui Lin, Qiuchen Lu, Yi An, Tao Yang

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As global climate change intensifies, extreme weather events such as floods increasingly threaten urban infrastructure, making the vulnerability of urban road networks a pressing issue. Existing static repair strategies fail to adapt to the rapid changes in road network conditions during flood events, leading to inefficient resource allocation and suboptimal recovery. The main research gap lies in the lack of repair strategies that consider both the dynamic characteristics of networks and the progression of flood propagation. This paper proposes a topology-based dynamic repair strategy that adjusts repair priorities based on real-time changes in flood propagation and traffic demand. Specifically, a novel method is developed to assess and enhance the resilience of urban road networks during flood events. The method combines road network topological analysis, flood propagation modelling, and traffic flow simulation, introducing a local importance metric to dynamically evaluate the significance of road segments across different spatial and temporal scales. Using London's road network and rainfall data as a case study, the effectiveness of this dynamic strategy is compared to traditional and Transport for London (TFL) strategies. The most significant highlight of the research is that the dynamic strategy substantially reduced the number of stranded vehicles across different traffic demand periods, improving efficiency by up to 35.2%. The advantage of this method lies in its ability to adapt in real-time to changes in network conditions, enabling more precise resource allocation and more efficient repair processes. This dynamic strategy offers significant value to urban planners, traffic management departments, and emergency response teams, helping them better respond to extreme weather events like floods, enhance overall urban resilience, and reduce economic losses and social impacts.

Keywords: Urban resilience, road networks, flood response, dynamic repair strategy, topological analysis

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Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

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Authors: Rosimeire Araújo Silva, Philip Martin Fearnside

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Extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and the human population in the region. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years, and projections of climate change predict greater frequency and intensity of these events. Understanding the links between these extreme events and different patterns of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is essential, both to improve the modeling of climate change and its consequences and to support efforts of adaptation in the region. The relationship between sea temperatures and events in the Amazon is much more complex than is usually assumed in climatic models. Warming and cooling of different parts of the oceans, as well as the interaction between simultaneous temperature changes in different parts of each ocean and between the two oceans, have specific consequences for the Amazon, with effects on precipitation that vary in different parts of the region. Simplistic generalities, such as the association between El Niño events and droughts in the Amazon, do not capture this complexity. We investigated the variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the period 1950-2022, using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (FOE), spectral analysis coherence and wavelet phase. The two were identified as the main modes of variability, which explain about 53,9% and 13,3%, respectively, of the total variance of the data. The spectral and coherence analysis and wavelets phase showed that the first selected mode represents the warming in the central part of the Pacific Ocean (the “Central El Niño”), while the second mode represents warming in the eastern part of the Pacific (the “Eastern El Niño The effects of the 1982-1983 and 1976-1977 El Niño events in the Amazon, although both events were characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, the impact on rainfall in the Amazon was distinct. In the rainy season, from December to March, the sub-basins of the Japurá, Jutaí, Jatapu, Tapajós, Trombetas and Xingu rivers were the regions that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central (1982-1983), while the sub-basins of the Javari, Purus, Negro and Madeira rivers had the most pronounced reductions in the year of Eastern El Niño (1976-1977). In the transition to the dry season, in April, the greatest reductions were associated with the Eastern El Niño year for the majority of the study region, with the exception only of the sub-basins of the Madeira, Trombetas and Xingu rivers, which had their associated reductions to Central El Niño. In the dry season from July to September, the sub-basins of the Japurá Jutaí Jatapu Javari Trombetas and Madeira rivers were the rivers that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central, while the sub-basins of the Tapajós Purus Negro and Xingu rivers had the most pronounced reductions. In the Eastern El Niño year this season. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Central (Eastern) El Niño controlled the reductions in soil moisture in the dry (rainy) season for all sub-basins shown in this study. Extreme drought events associated with these meteorological phenomena can lead to a significant increase in the occurrence of forest fires. These fires have a devastating impact on Amazonian vegetation, resulting in the irreparable loss of biodiversity and the release of large amounts of carbon stored in the forest, contributing to the increase in the greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Keywords: sea surface temperature, variability, climate, Amazon

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Authors: Goksel Ezgi Guzey, Bihrat Onoz

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The scarcity of streamflow gauging stations and the increasing effects of global warming cause designing water management systems to be very difficult. This study is a significant contribution to assessing regional regression models for estimating streamflow. In this study, simulated meteorological data was related to the observed streamflow data from 1971 to 2020 for 33 stream gauging stations of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Ordinary least squares regression was used to predict flow for 2020-2100 with the simulated meteorological data. CORDEX- EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were used with 0.11 and 0.22 grids, respectively, to estimate climate conditions under certain climate scenarios. Twelve meteorological variables simulated by two regional climate models, RCA4 and RegCM4, were used as independent variables in the ordinary least squares regression, where the observed streamflow was the dependent variable. The variability of streamflow was then calculated with 5-6 meteorological variables and watershed characteristics such as area and height prior to the application. Of the regression analysis of 31 stream gauging stations' data, the stations were subjected to a clustering analysis, which grouped the stations in two clusters in terms of their hydrometeorological properties. Two streamflow equations were found for the two clusters of stream gauging stations for every domain and every regional climate model, which increased the efficiency of streamflow estimation by a range of 10-15% for all the models. This study underlines the importance of homogeneity of a region in estimating streamflow not only in terms of the geographical location but also in terms of the meteorological characteristics of that region.

Keywords: hydrology, streamflow estimation, climate change, hydrologic modeling, HBV, hydropower

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Authors: Oluseun A. Sanuade, Sanlinn I. Kaka, Adesoji O. Akanji, Olukole A. Akinbiyi

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Prospect evaluation of ‘the ‘ADE’ field was done using 3D seismic data and well log data. The field is located in the offshore Niger Delta where water depth ranges from 450 to 800 m. The objectives of this study are to explore deeper prospects and to ascertain the kind of traps that are favorable for the accumulation of hydrocarbon in the field. Six horizons with major and minor faults were identified and mapped in the field. Time structure maps of these horizons were generated and using the available check-shot data the maps were converted to top structure maps which were used to calculate the hydrocarbon volume. The results show that regional structural highs that are trending in northeast-southwest (NE-SW) characterized a large portion of the field. These highs were observed across all horizons revealing a regional post-depositional deformation. Three prospects were identified and evaluated to understand the different opportunities in the field. These include stratigraphic pinch out and bi-directional downlap. The results of this study show that the field has potentials for new opportunities that could be explored for further studies.

Keywords: hydrocarbon, play, prospect, stratigraphy

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Authors: Sandipika Gupta

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Objective: Due to admirably low 30-day mortality rates for paediatric cardiac surgery, it is now pertinent to turn towards more intermediate-length outcomes such as morbidities closely associated with these surgeries. One such morbidity, major adverse events (MAE) comprises a group of adverse outcomes associated with paediatric cardiac surgery (e.g. cardiac arrest, major haemorrhage). Methods: This is a retrospective study that analysed the incidence and impact of MAE which was the primary outcome in the UK population. The data was collected in 5 centres between October 2015 and June 2017, amassing 3090 surgical episodes. The incidence and risk factors for MAE, were assessed through descriptive statistical analyses and multivariate logistic regression. The secondary outcomes of life status at 6 months and the length of hospital stay were also evaluated to understand the impact of MAE on patients. Results: Out of 3090 episodes, 134 (4.3%) had a postoperative MAE. The majority of the episodes were in: neonates (47%, P<0.001), high-risk cardiac diagnosis groups (20.1%, P<0.001), episodes with longer 5mes on the bypass (72.4%, P<0.001) and urgent surgeries (57.9%, P<0.001). Episodes reporting MAE also reported longer lengths of stay in hospital (29 days vs 9 days, P<0.001). Furthermore, patients experiencing MAE were at a higher risk of mortality at the 6-month life status check (mortality rates: 29.2% vs 2%, P<0.001).Conclusions: Key risk factors were identified. An important negative impact of MAE was found for patients. The identified risk factors could be used to profile and flag at-risk patients. Monitoring of MAE rates and closer investigation into the care pathway before and after individual MAEs in children’s heart units may lead to a reduction in these terrible events.

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Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Xiaohong Xu, Tianchu Zhang, Yangfan Chen, Rongtai Tan

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In Canada, Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) is a scale designed to help residences understand the impact of air quality on human health. In Ontario, Canada, AQHI was implemented in June 2015. This study investigated temporal variability of daily AQHI and impact of regional transport on AQHI in Windsor, Ontario, Canada from 2016 to 2019. During 2016–2019, 1428 daily AQHIs were recorded in Windsor Downtown Station. Among those, the AQHIs were at the low health risk level (AQHI = 1, 2 or 3) in 82% of days, only a few days at high risk level (AQHI = 7), the rest were at moderate health risk level (AQHI = 4, 5, 6), indicating air quality in Windsor was fairly good with relatively low health risk. The annual mean AQHI value decreased from 2.95 in 2016 to 2.81 in 2019, demonstrating the improvement of air quality. Half of the days, AQHI were 3 regardless of season. AQHI was higher in the warm season (3.1) than in the cold season (2.6) due to more frequent moderate risk days (27%, AQHI = 4) in warm season and more frequent low risk days (42%, AQHI = 2) in the cold season. Among the three pollutants considered in AQHI calculation, O3 was the most frequently reported dominant contributor to daily AQHI (88% of days), followed by NO2 (12%), especially in the cold season, with small contribution from PM2.5 (<1%). In the past two decades, NO2 concentrations had decreased significantly and O3 concentrations had increased, resulting in daily AQHI being less reliance on NO2 (from 51% of days being the primary contributor during 2003–2010 to 12% during 2016–2019) and more on O3 concentrations (49% to 88%). Trajectory analysis found that AQHI ≤ 3 days were closely associated with air masses from the north and northwest, whereas AQHI > 3 days were closely associated with air masses from the west and southwest. This is because northerly flows brought in clear air mass owing to less industrial facilities, while polluted air masses were transported from the south of Windsor, where several industrial states of the US were located. Overall, O3 concentrations dictate the daily AQHI values, the seasonal variability of AQHI, and the impact of regional transport on AQHI in Windsor. This makes further reductions of AQHI challenging because O3 concentrations are likely to continue increasing due to weakened consumption of O3 by NO owing to decreasing NO emissions and more hot days because of climate change. The predominant and increasing contribution of O3 to AQHI calls for more effective control measures to mitigate O3 pollution and its impact on human health and the environment.

Keywords: air quality, Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), hysplit, regional transport, windsor

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Authors: Anil Giri, Kyle Lovercamp, Sankalp Sharma

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Farm level incomes fluctuate significantly due to extreme weather events such as drought. In the light of recent extreme weather events it is important to understand the implications of extreme weather events, flood and drought, on farm level incomes. This study examines the variation in farm level incomes for the United States in drought and no- drought years. Factoring heterogeneity in different enterprises (crop, livestock) and geography this paper analyzes the impact of drought in farm level incomes at state and national level. Livestock industry seems to be affected more by the lag in production of input feed for production, crops, as preliminary results show. Furthermore, preliminary results also show that while crop producers are not affected much due to drought, as price and quantity effect worked on opposite direction with same magnitude, that was not the case for livestock and horticulture enterprises. Results also showed that even when price effect was not as high the crop insurance component helped absorb much of shock for crop producers. Finally, the effect was heterogeneous for different states more on the coastal states compared Midwest region. This study should generate a lot of interest from policy makers across the world as some countries are actively seeking to increase subsidies in their agriculture sector. This study shows how subsidies absorb the shocks for one enterprise more than others. Finally, this paper should also be able to give an insight to economists to design/recommend policies such that it is optimal given the production level of different enterprises in different countries.

Keywords: farm level income, United States, crop, livestock

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: J. Stejskal, P. Hajek

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The goal of this article is the analysis of knowledge transfer at the regional level of the Czech Republic. We show how goals of enterprises´ innovative activities are related to the rate of cooperation with different actors within regional innovative systems as well as in other world regions. The results show that the most important partners of enterprises are their suppliers and clients in most Czech regions. The cooperation rate of enterprises correlates significantly mainly with enterprises´ efforts to enter new markets and reduce labour costs per unit output. The meaning of this cooperation decreases with the increase of partner’s distance. Regarding the type of a cooperating partner, cooperation within an enterprise had to do with the increase of market share and decrease of labour costs. On the other hand, cooperation with clients had to do with efforts to replace outdated products or processes or enter new markets. We can pay less attention to the cooperation with government authorities and organizations. The reasons for marginalization of this cooperation should be submitted to further detailed investigation.

Keywords: knowledge, transfer, innovative process, Czech republic, region

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Pascal Rey, Anaïs Weber

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Many mining projects are being developed in Africa the last decades. Due to the economic opportunities they offer, these projects result in a massive and rapid influx of migrants to the surrounding area. In areas where central government representation is low and local administration lack financial resources, urban development is often anarchical, beyond all public control. It leads to socio-spatial segregation, insecurity and the risk of social conflicts rising. Aware that their economic development is very correlated with local situation, mining companies get more and more involved in regional planning in setting up tools and Strategic Directions document. One of the commonly used tools in this regard is the “Influx Management Plan”. It consists in looking at the region’s absorption capacities in order to ensure its coherent development and by developing several urban centers than one macrocephalic city. It includes many other measures such as urban governance support, skills transfer, creation of strategic guidelines, financial support (local taxes, mining taxes, development funds etc.) local development projects. Through various examples of mining projects in Guinea, A country that is host to many large mining projects, we will look at the implications of regional and urban planning of which mining companies are key playor as well as public authorities. While their investment capacity offers advantages and accelerates development, their actions raise questions of the unilaterality of interests and local governance. By interfering in public affairs are mining companies not increasing the risk of central and local government shirking their responsibilities in terms of regional development, or even calling their legitimacy into question? Is such public-private collaboration really sustainable for the region as a whole and for all stakeholders?

Keywords: Africa, guinea, mine, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 498

Authors: Jiří Barta, Oldřich Svoboda

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This article deals with the issue of practical training of the management staff during emergency events in the frame of critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure represents one of the possible targets of destructive activities as well as operational accidents and incidents which can seriously influence the functioning of the system of ensuring the basic needs of the inhabitants. Therefore, protection of critical infrastructure and training of the staff in dealing with emergencies becomes a broadly discussed topic. Nowadays, the market offers a wide range of simulation tools which proclaim that they are suitable for practical training of management staff and completing their tasks. Another group of programs declares that they are not primarily designed for this type of simulations. However, after some minor adaptations, for example by adding or changing users‘ roles, they are able to fulfil the needs of practical training as well as the process of emergency simulation. This paper characterises and selects simulators and programs for simulating emergency events.

Keywords: computer simulation, Symos´97, simulation software, harmful substances, Konstruktivní simulace, SIMEX

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Mohammed M. Ibrahim, A. A. Yusuf, Manuel Du, Fiona Mumoki

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The traditional honey bee species of Sudan is Apis mellifera, but in 1985, the dwarf bee Apis florea was introduced to the country, so now there are two species present. However, there are conflicting assessments regarding the subspecies of Apis mellifera colonies in Sudan. Likewise, it is unclear if, in the 40 years since its introduction, Apis florea has already developed regional differences or ecotypes. To shed light on these questions, we performed a morphology study on Sudanese honeybees. Samples of 10 to 20 honeybee workers per colony of the two species were collected from 16 locations, spanning different climatic zones in Sudan during 2021. Measurements were taken from 16 morphometric characteristics using a stereo-microscope equipped with an Image Analysis System (Moticam Image Plus 5.0 Digital Microscope Camera) to study their variability. The results indicate that in both species, the general means of various characters showed significant differences (p < 0.05) within a species between different locations, indicating that there might indeed be regional differences. However, more taxonomic investigation and, ideally also, molecular studies are needed in order to confirm the proper identification of subspecies and their ecotypes.

Keywords: Apis, subspecies, morphology, Sudan

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

Procedia PDF Downloads 100