Search results for: exchange index
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4903

Search results for: exchange index

1303 Water Quality of Cengkareng Drain in Maritime Security Perspective

Authors: Febri Ramadhan, Sigid Hariyadi, Niken Tunjung Murti Pratiwi, Budiman Djoko Said

Abstract:

The scope about maritime security copes all of the problems emanating from maritime domain. Those problems can give such threats to national security of the state. One of threats taking place nowadays in maritime domain is about pollution. Pollution coming from many sources may increase water-borne disease risk that can cause the instability of national security. Pollution coming from many sources may increase water-borne disease risk. Hence the pollution makes an improper condition of environments for humans and others biota dwelling in the waters. One of the tools that can determine about pollution is by measuring about the water quality of its waters. In this case, what brings the waste and pollutants is there an activity of tidal waves introducing substances or energy into the natural environment. Cengkareng Drain is one of the water channels which is affected by tidal waves. Cengkareng Drain was become an observation area to examine the relation between water quality and tide waves. This research was conducted monthly from July to November 2015. Sampling of water was conducted every ebb and tide in every observation. Pollution index showed that the level of pollution on Cengkareng drain was moderately polluted, with the score about 7.7-8.6. Based on the results of t-test and analysis of similarity, the characteristic of water quality on rising tide does not significantly differ from the characteristic of water quality on ebbing tide. Therefore, we need a proper management as a means to control the pollutants in order to make good maritime security strategy.

Keywords: maritime security, Cengkareng drain, water quality, tidal waves

Procedia PDF Downloads 187
1302 Land Suitability Prediction Modelling for Agricultural Crops Using Machine Learning Approach: A Case Study of Khuzestan Province, Iran

Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

Abstract:

The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. To achieve this, more resources should be consumed and, besides other environmental concerns, highlight sustainable agricultural development. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for ten different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 59
1301 Estimation of Effective Radiation Dose Following Computed Tomography Urography at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano Nigeria

Authors: Idris Garba, Aisha Rabiu Abdullahi, Mansur Yahuza, Akintade Dare

Abstract:

Background: CT urography (CTU) is efficient radiological examination for the evaluation of the urinary system disorders. However, patients are exposed to a significant radiation dose which is in a way associated with increased cancer risks. Objectives: To determine Computed Tomography Dose Index following CTU, and to evaluate organs equivalent doses. Materials and Methods: A prospective cohort study was carried at a tertiary institution located in Kano northwestern. Ethical clearance was sought and obtained from the research ethics board of the institution. Demographic, scan parameters and CT radiation dose data were obtained from patients that had CTU procedure. Effective dose, organ equivalent doses, and cancer risks were estimated using SPSS statistical software version 16 and CT dose calculator software. Result: A total of 56 patients were included in the study, consisting of 29 males and 27 females. The common indication for CTU examination was found to be renal cyst seen commonly among young adults (15-44yrs). CT radiation dose values in DLP, CTDI and effective dose for CTU were 2320 mGy cm, CTDIw 9.67 mGy and 35.04 mSv respectively. The probability of cancer risks was estimated to be 600 per a million CTU examinations. Conclusion: In this study, the radiation dose for CTU is considered significantly high, with increase in cancer risks probability. Wide radiation dose variations between patient doses suggest that optimization is not fulfilled yet. Patient radiation dose estimate should be taken into consideration when imaging protocols are established for CT urography.

Keywords: CT urography, cancer risks, effective dose, radiation exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 318
1300 Dual Drug Piperine-Paclitaxel Nanoparticles Inhibit Migration and Invasion in Human Breast Cancer Cells

Authors: Monika Verma, Renuka Sharma, B. R. Gulati, Namita Singh

Abstract:

In combination therapy, two chemotherapeutic agents work together in a collaborative action. It has appeared as one of the promising approaches to improve anti-cancer treatment efficacy. In the present investigation, piperine (P-NPS), paclitaxel (PTX NPS), and a combination of both, piperine-paclitaxel nanoparticle (Pip-PTX NPS), were made by the nanoprecipitation method and later characterized by PSA, DSC, SEM, TEM, and FTIR. All nanoparticles exhibited a monodispersed size distribution with a size of below 200 nm, zeta potential ranges from (-30-40mV) and a narrow polydispersity index (>0.3) of the drugs. The average encapsulation efficiency was found to be between 80 and 90%. In vitro release of drugs for nanoparticles was done spectrophotometrically. FTIR and DSC results confirmed the presence of the drug. The Pip-PTX NPS significantly inhibit cell proliferation as compared to the native drugs nanoparticles in the breast cancer cell line MCF-7. In addition, Pip-PTX NPS suppresses cells in colony formation and soft gel agar assay. Scratch migration and Transwell chamber invasion assays revealed that combined nanoparticles reduce the migration and invasion of breast cancer cells. Morphological studies showed that Pip-PTX NPS penetrates the cells and induces apoptosis, which was further confirmed by DNA fragmentation, SEM, and western blot analysis. Taken together, Pip-PTX NPS inhibits cell proliferation, anchorage dependent and anchorage independent cell growth, reduces migration and invasion, and induces apoptosis in cells. These findings support that combination therapy using Pip-PTX NPS represents a potential approach and could be helpful in the future for breast cancer therapy.

Keywords: piperine, paclitaxel, breast cancer, apoptosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
1299 An Image Processing Scheme for Skin Fungal Disease Identification

Authors: A. A. M. A. S. S. Perera, L. A. Ranasinghe, T. K. H. Nimeshika, D. M. Dhanushka Dissanayake, Namalie Walgampaya

Abstract:

Nowadays, skin fungal diseases are mostly found in people of tropical countries like Sri Lanka. A skin fungal disease is a particular kind of illness caused by fungus. These diseases have various dangerous effects on the skin and keep on spreading over time. It becomes important to identify these diseases at their initial stage to control it from spreading. This paper presents an automated skin fungal disease identification system implemented to speed up the diagnosis process by identifying skin fungal infections in digital images. An image of the diseased skin lesion is acquired and a comprehensive computer vision and image processing scheme is used to process the image for the disease identification. This includes colour analysis using RGB and HSV colour models, texture classification using Grey Level Run Length Matrix, Grey Level Co-Occurrence Matrix and Local Binary Pattern, Object detection, Shape Identification and many more. This paper presents the approach and its outcome for identification of four most common skin fungal infections, namely, Tinea Corporis, Sporotrichosis, Malassezia and Onychomycosis. The main intention of this research is to provide an automated skin fungal disease identification system that increase the diagnostic quality, shorten the time-to-diagnosis and improve the efficiency of detection and successful treatment for skin fungal diseases.

Keywords: Circularity Index, Grey Level Run Length Matrix, Grey Level Co-Occurrence Matrix, Local Binary Pattern, Object detection, Ring Detection, Shape Identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 210
1298 Exploring the Factors Affecting the Presence of Farmers’ Markets in Rural British Columbia

Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

Abstract:

Farmers’ Markets have become one of the important healthy food suppliers in both rural communities and urban settings. Farmers’ markets are evolving and their number has rapidly increased in the past decade. Despite this drastic increase, the distribution of the farmers’ markets is not even across different areas. The main goal of this study is to explore the socioeconomic, geographic, and demographic variables which affect the establishment of farmers’ market in rural communities in British Columbia (BC). Thus, the data on available farmers’ markets in rural areas were collected from BC Association of Farmers’ Markets and spatially joined to BC map at Dissemination Area (DA) level using ArcGIS software to link the farmers’ market to the respective communities that they serve. Then, in order to investigate this issue and understand which rural communities farmer’ markets tend to operate, a binary logistic regression analysis was performed with the availability of farmer’ markets at DA-level as dependent variable and Deprivation Index (DI), Metro Influence Zone (MIZ) and population as independent variables. The results indicated that DI and MIZ variables are not statistically significant whereas the population is the only which had a significant contribution in predicting the availability of farmers’ markets in rural BC. Moreover, this study found that farmers’ markets usually do not operate in rural food deserts where other healthy food providers such as supermarkets and grocery stores are non-existent. In conclusion, the presence of farmers markets is not associated with socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of rural communities in BC, but farmers’ markets tend to operate in more populated rural communities in BC.

Keywords: farmers’ markets, socioeconomic and demographic variables, metro influence zone, logistic regression, ArcGIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
1297 Analyzing the Impact of Spatio-Temporal Climate Variations on the Rice Crop Calendar in Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

Abstract:

The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
1296 Ganoderma Infection in Acacia mangium: Difference of Plant Hosts to Virulency of Ganoderma

Authors: Rosa Suryantini, Reine S. Wulandari, Slamet Rifanjani

Abstract:

Acacia (Acacia mangium) is a forest plant species which is produced to pulp and paper. The high demand for pulp and paper increase the acacia plantation forest area. However, the outbreak of Ganoderma (root rot pathogen) infection becomes obstacles for the development of acacia plantations. This is due to the extent of host range and species of Ganoderma. Ganoderma has also the ability to survive the long-term without hosts. The diversity of the host and Ganoderma species affects its virulence. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the virulence of Ganoderma from different hosts (acacia, palm oil (Elaeis guineensis) and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis)). The methods were isolation and morphology identification of Ganoderma, and inoculation of Ganoderma isolates on acacia seedlings. The results showed that the three isolates of Ganoderma from different hosts had a morphological similarity with G. Lucidum (according to Ganoderma isolated from acacia or G1), G. boninense (according to Ganoderma isolated from palm oil or G2) and G. applanatum (according to Ganoderma isolated from rubber or G3). Symptoms of infection in acacia were seen at 3 months of age. The symptoms were begun with chlorosis, necrosis and death of seedlings (such as burning). Necrosis was started from the tip of the leaf. Based on this visible symptoms, G1 was moderate virulence isolate and G2 was low virulence isolate while G3 was avirulen isolate. The symptoms were still growing in accordance with the development of plant so it affected the value of diseases severity index. Ganoderma infection decreased the dry weight of seedlings, ie. 3.82 g (seedlings that were inoculated by G1), 4.01 g (seedlings that were inoculated by G2); and 5.02 g (seedlings that were inoculated by G3) when the dry weight of seedlings control was 10,02 g. These results provide information for early control of Ganoderma diseases on acacia especially those planted near rubber and oil palm crops.

Keywords: Acacia, Ganoderma, infection, virulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 169
1295 The Influence of Environmental Factors on Honey Bee Activities: A Quantitative Analysis

Authors: Hung-Jen Lin, Chien-Hao Wang, Chien-Peng Huang, Yu-Sheng Tseng, En-Cheng Yang, Joe-Air Jiang

Abstract:

Bees’ incoming and outgoing behavior is a decisive index which can indicate the health condition of a colony. Traditional methods for monitoring the behavior of honey bees (Apis mellifera) take too much time and are highly labor-intensive, and the lack of automation and synchronization disables researchers and beekeepers from obtaining real-time information of beehives. To solve these problems, this study proposes to use an Internet of Things (IoT)-based system for counting honey bees’ incoming and outgoing activities using an infrared interruption technique, while environmental factors are recorded simultaneously. The accuracy of the established system is verified by comparing the counting results with the outcomes of manual counting. Moreover, this highly -accurate device is appropriate for providing quantitative information regarding honey bees’ incoming and outgoing behavior. Different statistical analysis methods, including one-way ANOVA and two-way ANOVA, are used to investigate the influence of environmental factors, such as temperature, humidity, illumination and ambient pressure, on bees’ incoming and outgoing behavior. With the real-time data, a standard model is established using the outcomes from analyzing the relationship between environmental factors and bees’ incoming and outgoing behavior. In the future, smart control systems, such as a temperature control system, can also be combined with the proposed system to create an appropriate colony environment. It is expected that the proposed system will make a considerable contribution to the apiculture and researchers.

Keywords: ANOVA, environmental factors, honey bee, incoming and outgoing behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 345
1294 An Extended Domain-Specific Modeling Language for Marine Observatory Relying on Enterprise Architecture

Authors: Charbel Aoun, Loic Lagadec

Abstract:

A Sensor Network (SN) is considered as an operation of two phases: (1) the observation/measuring, which means the accumulation of the gathered data at each sensor node; (2) transferring the collected data to some processing center (e.g., Fusion Servers) within the SN. Therefore, an underwater sensor network can be defined as a sensor network deployed underwater that monitors underwater activity. The deployed sensors, such as Hydrophones, are responsible for registering underwater activity and transferring it to more advanced components. The process of data exchange between the aforementioned components perfectly defines the Marine Observatory (MO) concept which provides information on ocean state, phenomena and processes. The first step towards the implementation of this concept is defining the environmental constraints and the required tools and components (Marine Cables, Smart Sensors, Data Fusion Server, etc). The logical and physical components that are used in these observatories perform some critical functions such as the localization of underwater moving objects. These functions can be orchestrated with other services (e.g. military or civilian reaction). In this paper, we present an extension to our MO meta-model that is used to generate a design tool (ArchiMO). We propose new constraints to be taken into consideration at design time. We illustrate our proposal with an example from the MO domain. Additionally, we generate the corresponding simulation code using our self-developed domain-specific model compiler. On the one hand, this illustrates our approach in relying on Enterprise Architecture (EA) framework that respects: multiple views, perspectives of stakeholders, and domain specificity. On the other hand, it helps reducing both complexity and time spent in design activity, while preventing from design modeling errors during porting this activity in the MO domain. As conclusion, this work aims to demonstrate that we can improve the design activity of complex system based on the use of MDE technologies and a domain-specific modeling language with the associated tooling. The major improvement is to provide an early validation step via models and simulation approach to consolidate the system design.

Keywords: smart sensors, data fusion, distributed fusion architecture, sensor networks, domain specific modeling language, enterprise architecture, underwater moving object, localization, marine observatory, NS-3, IMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 153
1293 Study of Causes and Effects of Road Projects Abandonment in Nigeria

Authors: Monsuru Oyenola Popoola, Oladapo Samson Abiola, Wusamotu Alao Adeniji

Abstract:

The prevalent and incessant abandonment of road construction projects are alarming that it creates several negative effects to social, economic and environmental values of the project. The purpose of this paper is to investigate and determined the various causes and effects of abandoning road construction projects in Nigeria. Likert Scale questionnaire design was used to administered and analysed the data obtained for the stydy. 135 (Nr) questionnaires were completed and retrieved from the respondents, out of 200 (Nr) questionnaires sent out, representing a response rate of 67.5%. The analysis utilized the Relative Importance Index (R.I.I.) method and the results are presented in tabular form. The findings confirms that at least 20 factors were the causes of road projects abandonment in Nigeria with most including Leadership Instability, Improper Project Planning, Inconsistence in government policies and Design, Contractor Incompetence, Economy Instability and Inflation, Delay in remittance of money, Improper financial analysis, Poor risk management, Climatic Conditions, Improper Project Estimates etc. The findings also show that at least eight (8) effect were identified on the system, and these include; Waste of Financial Resources, Loss of economic value, Environmental degradation, Loss of economic value, Reduction in standard of living, Litigation and Arbitration, etc. The reflection is that allocating reasonable finance, developing appropriate and effective implementation plans and monitoring, evaluation and reporting on development project activities by key actors should enhance in resolving the problem of road projects abandonment.

Keywords: road construction, abandonment of road projects, climatic condition, project planning, contractor

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
1292 Theoretical Framework for Value Creation in Project Oriented Companies

Authors: Mariusz Hofman

Abstract:

The paper ‘Theoretical framework for value creation in Project-Oriented Companies’ is designed to determine, how organisations create value and whether this allows them to achieve market success. An assumption has been made that there are two routes to achieving this value. The first one is to create intangible assets (i.e. the resources of human, structural and relational capital), while the other one is to create added value (understood as the surplus of revenue over costs). It has also been assumed that the combination of the achieved added value and unique intangible assets translates to the success of a project-oriented company. The purpose of the paper is to present hypothetical and deductive model which describing the modus operandi of such companies and approach to model operationalisation. All the latent variables included in the model are theoretical constructs with observational indicators (measures). The existence of a latent variable (construct) and also submodels will be confirmed based on a covariance matrix which in turn is based on empirical data, being a set of observational indicators (measures). This will be achieved with a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Due to this statistical procedure, it will be verified whether the matrix arising from the adopted theoretical model differs statistically from the empirical matrix of covariance arising from the system of equations. The fit of the model with the empirical data will be evaluated using χ2, RMSEA and CFI (Comparative Fit Index). How well the theoretical model fits the empirical data is assessed through a number of indicators. If the theoretical conjectures are confirmed, an interesting development path can be defined for project-oriented companies. This will let such organisations perform efficiently in the face of the growing competition and pressure on innovation.

Keywords: value creation, project-oriented company, structural equation modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 257
1291 Weight Status, Body Appreciation Correlated with Husbands' Satisfaction in Saudi Women

Authors: Hala Hzam Al Otaibi

Abstract:

Background: Obesity is more common among Saudi women compared to men, with 75–88% of adult women suffering from overweight or obesity and most of them married. Weight status and body appreciation are an important factor in maintaining or loss weight behaviors and for husbands satisfaction. Aims: To assess weight status, body appreciation and related factors, including age, level of education, occupation status husbands satisfaction in adult women. Methods: A cross-sectional study conducted among 326 married women, aged 18 to 60 years old in Eastern of Saudi Arabia. Data were collected by face to face interview, height and weight were measured to calculate body mass index (BMI). Body Appreciation Scale (BAS) and husbands satisfied were evaluated through questioning. Results: The majority of women has a university education, not employed and less than 40 years old (66.5%, 69.9%, 67.5%; respectively). Fifty-four percent of women overweight/obese and the rest were normal weight, BAS mean score was lower in younger women (>40 years) 7.39+2.20 and obese women (6.83+2.16) which is reflected lower body appreciation. Husbands' satisfaction regarding the weight status shows 47.6% of normal weight believed their husbands were dissatisfied with their weight and consider them as overweight/obese, 28.3% of overweight/obese thought their husbands satisfied with their weight and consider them as normal weight. Body appreciation correlated with age (r.139,p<0.05) and no correlation found for level of education and employed status. Husbands satisfaction strongly correlated with body appreciation (r.189,p<0.01) and weight status (r .570,p <0.01). Conclusion: Our findings indicate that women had a low body appreciation related to age, weight status and husbands' dissatisfaction. Future interventions aimed to weight reduction, it is important to consider husband satisfaction, as well as we need more assessment of weight satisfaction in younger women.

Keywords: body appreciation, husbands satisfaction, weight status, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
1290 Enhancing Sensitization of Cervical Cancer Cells to γ-Radiation Ellagic Acid

Authors: Vidhula Ahire, Amit Kumar, K. P. Mishra, Gauri Kulkarni

Abstract:

Herbal polyphenols have gained significance because of their increasing promise in prevention and treatment of cancer. Therefore, development of a dietary compound as an effective radiosensitizer and a radioprotector is highly warranted for cervical cancer patients undergoing therapy. This study describes the cytotoxic effects of the flavonoid, ellagic acid (EA) when administered either alone or in combination with gamma radiation on cervical cancer HeLa cells in vitro. Apoptotic index and proliferation were measured by using trypan blue assay. Reproductive cell death was analyzed by clonogenic assay. Propidium iodide staining for flowcytometry was performed to analyze cell cycle modulation. Nuclear and mitochondrial changes were studied with specific dyes. DNA repair kinetics was analyzed by immunofluorescence assay. Evaluation and comparison of EA effects were performed with other clinically used breast cancer drugs. When tumor cells were exposed to 2 and 4 Gy of irradiation in presence of EA (10 μM), it yielded a synergistic cytotoxic effect on cervical cancer cells whereas in NIH3T3 cells it reversed the injury caused by irradiation and abetted in the regaining of normal healthy cells. At 24h ~25foci/cell was observed and 2.6 fold decrease in the mitochondrial membrane potential. Up to 40% cell were arrested in the G1 phase and 20-36% cells exhibited apoptosis. Our results demonstrate the role of increased apoptosis and cell cycle modulation in the mechanism of EA mediated radiosensitization of cervical cancer cells and thus advocating EA as an adjuvant for preclinical trials in cancer chemo- radiotherapy.

Keywords: cervical cancer, ellagic acid, sensitization, radiation therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
1289 Calculation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the Spectral Signature of Coffee Crops: Benefits of Image Filtering on Mixed Crops

Authors: Catalina Albornoz, Giacomo Barbieri

Abstract:

Crop monitoring has shown to reduce vulnerability to spreading plagues and pathologies in crops. Remote sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has made crop monitoring more precise, cost-efficient and accessible. Nowadays, remote monitoring involves calculating maps of vegetation indices by using different software that takes either Truecolor (RGB) or multispectral images as an input. These maps are then used to segment the crop into management zones. Finally, knowing the spectral signature of a crop (the reflected radiation as a function of wavelength) can be used as an input for decision-making and crop characterization. The calculation of vegetation indices using software such as Pix4D has high precision for monoculture plantations. However, this paper shows that using this software on mixed crops may lead to errors resulting in an incorrect segmentation of the field. Within this work, authors propose to filter all the elements different from the main crop before the calculation of vegetation indices and the spectral signature. A filter based on the Sobel method for border detection is used for filtering a coffee crop. Results show that segmentation into management zones changes with respect to the traditional situation in which a filter is not applied. In particular, it is shown how the values of the spectral signature change in up to 17% per spectral band. Future work will quantify the benefits of filtering through the comparison between in situ measurements and the calculated vegetation indices obtained through remote sensing.

Keywords: coffee, filtering, mixed crop, precision agriculture, remote sensing, spectral signature

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
1288 Catalytic Effect on Eco Friendly Functional Material in Flame Retardancy of Cellulose

Authors: Md. Abdul Hannan

Abstract:

Two organophosphorus compounds, namely diethyloxymethyl-9-oxa-10- phosphaphenanthrene-10-oxide (DOPAC) and diethyl (2,2-diethoxyethyl) phosphonate (DPAC) were applied on cotton cellulose to impart non-carcinogenic and durable (in alkaline washing) flame retardant property to it. Some acidic catalysts, sodium dihydrogen phosphate (NaH2PO4), ammonium dihydrogen phosphate (NH4H2PO4) and phosphoric acid (H3PO4) were successfully used. Synergistic acidic catalyzing effect of NaH2PO4+H3PO4 and NaH2PO4+NH4H2PO4 was also investigated. Appreciable limiting oxygen index (LOI) value of 23.2% was achieved in case of the samples treated with flame retardant (FR) compound DPAC along with the combined acidic catalyzing effect. A distinguishing outcome of total heat of combustion (THC) 3.27 KJ/g was revealed during pyrolysis combustion flow calorimetry (PCFC) test of the treated sample. In respect of thermal degradation, low temperature dehydration in conjugation with sufficient amount of char residue (30.5%) was obtained in case of DPAC treated sample. Consistently, the temperature of peak heat release rate (TPHRR) (325°C) of DPAC treated sample supported the expected low temperature pyrolysis in condensed phase mechanism. Subsequent thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) also reported inspiring weight retention% of the treated samples. Furthermore, for both of the flame retardant compounds, effect of different catalysts, considering both individual and combined, effect of solvents and overall the optimization of the process parameters were studied in detail.

Keywords: cotton cellulose, organophosphorus flame retardant, acetal linkage, THC, HRR, PHHR, char residue, LOI

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
1287 Inferring the Ecological Quality of Seagrass Beds from Using Composition and Configuration Indices

Authors: Fabrice Houngnandan, Celia Fery, Thomas Bockel, Julie Deter

Abstract:

Getting water cleaner and stopping global biodiversity loss requires indices to measure changes and evaluate the achievement of objectives. The endemic and protected seagrass species Posidonia oceanica is a biological indicator used to monitor the ecological quality of marine Mediterranean waters. One ecosystem index (EBQI), two biotic indices (PREI, Bipo), and several landscape indices, which measure the composition and configuration of the P. oceanica seagrass at the population scale have been developed. While the formers are measured at monitoring sites, the landscape indices can be calculated for the entire seabed covered by this ecosystem. This present work aims to search on the link between these indices and the best scale to be used in order to maximize this link. We used data collected between 2014 to 2019 along the French Mediterranean coastline to calculate EBQI, PREI, and Bipo at 100 sites. From the P. oceanica seagrass distribution map, configuration and composition indices around these different sites in 6 different grid sizes (100 m x 100 to 1000 m x 1000 m) were determined. Correlation analyses were first used to find out the grid size presenting the strongest and most significant link between the different types of indices. Finally, several models were compared basis on various metrics to identify the one that best explains the nature of the link between these indices. Our results showed a strong and significant link between biotic indices and the best correlations between biotic and landscape indices within the 600 m x 600 m grid cells. These results showed that the use of landscape indices is possible to monitor the health of seagrass beds at a large scale.

Keywords: ecological indicators, decline, conservation, submerged aquatic vegetation

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
1286 Urban Change Detection and Pattern Analysis Using Satellite Data

Authors: Shivani Jha, Klaus Baier, Rafiq Azzam, Ramakar Jha

Abstract:

In India, generally people migrate from rural area to the urban area for better infra-structural facilities, high standard of living, good job opportunities and advanced transport/communication availability. In fact, unplanned urban development due to migration of people causes seriou damage to the land use, water pollution and available water resources. In the present work, an attempt has been made to use satellite data of different years for urban change detection of Chennai metropolitan city along with pattern analysis to generate future scenario of urban development using buffer zoning in GIS environment. In the analysis, SRTM (30m) elevation data and IRS-1C satellite data for the years 1990, 2000, and 2014, are used. The flow accumulation, aspect, flow direction and slope maps developed using SRTM 30 m data are very useful for finding suitable urban locations for industrial setup and urban settlements. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) have been used in ERDAS imagine software for change detection in land use of Chennai metropolitan city. It has been observed that the urban area has increased exponentially in Chennai metropolitan city with significant decrease in agriculture and barren lands. However, the water bodies located in the study regions are protected and being used as freshwater for drinking purposes. Using buffer zone analysis in GIS environment, it has been observed that the development has taken place in south west direction significantly and will do so in future.

Keywords: urban change, satellite data, the Chennai metropolis, change detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
1285 Physical and Physiological Characteristics of Young Soccer Players in Republic of Macedonia

Authors: Sanja Manchevska, Vaska Antevska, Lidija Todorovska, Beti Dejanova, Sunchica Petrovska, Ivanka Karagjozova, Elizabeta Sivevska, Jasmina Pluncevic Gligoroska

Abstract:

Introduction: A number of positive effects on the player’s physical status, including the body mass components are attributed to training process. As young soccer players grow up qualitative and quantitative changes appear and contribute to better performance. Player’s anthropometric and physiologic characteristics are recognized as important determinants of performance. Material: A sample of 52 soccer players with an age span from 9 to 14 years were divided in two groups differentiated by age. The younger group consisted of 25 boys under 11 years (mean age 10.2) and second group consisted of 27 boys with mean age 12.64. Method: The set of basic anthropometric parameters was analyzed: height, weight, BMI (Body Mass Index) and body mass components. Maximal oxygen uptake was tested using the treadmill protocol by Brus. Results: The group aged under 11 years showed the following anthropometric and physiological features: average height= 143.39cm, average weight= 44.27 kg; BMI= 18.77; Err = 5.04; Hb= 13.78 g/l; VO2=37.72 mlO2/kg. Average values of analyzed parameters were as follows: height was 163.7 cm; weight= 56.3 kg; BMI = 19.6; VO2= 39.52 ml/kg; Err=5.01; Hb=14.3g/l for the participants aged 12 to14 years. Conclusion: Physiological parameters (maximal oxygen uptake, erythrocytes and Hb) were insignificantly higher in the older group compared to the younger group. There were no statistically significant differences between analyzed anthropometric parameters among the two groups except for the basic measurements (height and weight).

Keywords: body composition, young soccer players, BMI, physical status

Procedia PDF Downloads 383
1284 The Association among Obesity, Lipid Profiles and Depression Severity in Patients with Depressive Disorder

Authors: In Hee Shim, Dong Sik Bae

Abstract:

Introduction: Obesity and unfavorable lipid profile may be linked to depressive disorders. This study compared the levels of obesity, lipid profiles and depression severity of patients with depressive disorders. Methods: This study included 156 patients diagnosed with a depressive disorder who were hospitalized between March 2012 and February 2016. The patients were categorized into mild to moderate and severe depressive groups, based on Hamilton Depression Rating Scale scores (Mild to moderate depression 8-23 vs. severe depression ≥ 24). The charts of the patients were reviewed to evaluate body mass index and lipid profiles, including total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (TG), confounding factors, such as other general medical disorders (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia), except smoking status (insufficient data). Demographic and clinical characteristics, such as age, sex, comorbidities, family history of mood disorders, psychotic features, and prescription patterns were also assessed. Results: Compared to the mild to the moderate depressive group, patients with severe depression had significantly lower rate of male and comorbidity. The patients with severe depression had a significantly lower TG than patients in the mild to moderate depressive group. After adjustment for the sex and comorbidity, there were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of the obesity and lipid profiles, including TG. Conclusion: These results did not show a significant difference in the association between obesity, lipid profiles and the depression severity. The role of obesity and lipid profiles in the pathophysiology of depression remains to be clarified.

Keywords: depression, HAM-D, lipid profiles, obesity

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
1283 Effect of Aerobic Training on Visfatin Levels and Lipid Profile in Obese Women

Authors: Banaeifar Abdolali, Rahmanimoghadam Neda, Sohyli Shahram

Abstract:

Obesity is an increase in body fat , in addition it has been introduced as a risk factor for the progress of lipid disorders, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes (1,2). In recent years, Adipose tissue is now recognized as an endocrine organ that secretes many cytokines such as: interleukin 6, leptin, and visfatin (3). Visfatin is an adipocytokine that release from adiposities. It is unidentified whether training also influences concentrations of visfatin. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of 12 weeks of aerobic training on visfatin levels and lipid profile in obese women. Method: Thirty two obese women (age = 37.8 ± 13.2 years, body mass index = of 39.4 ± 6.4 kg/m2 .) volunteered to participate in a 12-wk exercise program. They were randomly assigned to either a training (n = 16) or control (n = 14) group. The training group exercised for 70 minutes per session, 3 days per week during the 12 week training program. The control group was asked to maintain their normal daily activities. Samples were obtained before and at the end of training program. We use t.paire and independent,test for data analyzes. Results: Exercise training resulted in a decrease in body weight (p < 0.05), percent body fat (% fat) and BMI (p < 0.05), fasting glucose level and visfatin concentration decreased but wasn’t significant (p > 0.05). Also the levels of triglyceride, total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol did not change significantly. Conclution: In conclusion, three month aerobic training program used in this study was very effective for producing significant benefits to body composition and HDL.c but didn’t significant chenging visfatin levels and lipid profile in these obese women.

Keywords: aerobic training, visfatin, lipid profile, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 444
1282 The Accuracy of an 8-Minute Running Field Test to Estimate Lactate Threshold

Authors: Timothy Quinn, Ronald Croce, Aliaksandr Leuchanka, Justin Walker

Abstract:

Many endurance athletes train at or just below an intensity associated with their lactate threshold (LT) and often the heart rate (HR) that these athletes use for their LT are above their true LT-HR measured in a laboratory. Training above their true LT-HR may lead to overtraining and injury. Few athletes have the capability of measuring their LT in a laboratory and rely on perception to guide them, as accurate field tests to determine LT are limited. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine if an 8-minute field test could accurately define the HR associated with LT as measured in the laboratory. On Day 1, fifteen male runners (mean±SD; age, 27.8±4.1 years; height, 177.9±7.1 cm; body mass, 72.3±6.2 kg; body fat, 8.3±3.1%) performed a discontinuous treadmill LT/maximal oxygen consumption (LT/VO2max) test using a portable metabolic gas analyzer (Cosmed K4b2) and a lactate analyzer (Analox GL5). The LT (and associated HR) was determined using the 1/+1 method, where blood lactate increased by 1 mMol•L-1 over baseline followed by an additional 1 mMol•L-1 increase. Days 2 and 3 were randomized, and the athletes performed either an 8-minute run on the treadmill (TM) or on a 160-m indoor track (TR) in an effort to cover as much distance as possible while maintaining a high intensity throughout the entire 8 minutes. VO2, HR, ventilation (VE), and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) were measured using the Cosmed system, and rating of perceived exertion (RPE; 6-20 scale) was recorded every minute. All variables were averaged over the 8 minutes. The total distance covered over the 8 minutes was measured in both conditions. At the completion of the 8-minute runs, blood lactate was measured. Paired sample t-tests and pairwise Pearson correlations were computed to determine the relationship between variables measured in the field tests versus those obtained in the laboratory at LT. An alpha level of <0.05 was required for statistical significance. The HR (mean +SD) during the TM (167+9 bpm) and TR (172+9 bpm) tests were strongly correlated to the HR measured during the laboratory LT (169+11 bpm) test (r=0.68; p<0.03 and r=0.88; p<0.001, respectively). Blood lactate values during the TM and TR tests were not different from each other but were strongly correlated with the laboratory LT (r=0.73; p<0.04 and r=0.66; p<0.05, respectively). VE (Lmin-1) was significantly greater during the TR (134.8+11.4 Lmin-1) as compared to the TM (123.3+16.2 Lmin-1) with moderately strong correlations to the laboratory threshold values (r=0.38; p=0.27 and r=0.58; p=0.06, respectively). VO2 was higher during TR (51.4 mlkg-1min-1) compared to TM (47.4 mlkg-1min-1) with correlations of 0.33 (p=0.35) and 0.48 (p=0.13), respectively to threshold values. Total distance run was significantly greater during the TR (2331.6+180.9 m) as compared to the TM (2177.0+232.6 m), but they were strongly correlated with each other (r=0.82; p<0.002). These results suggest that an 8-minute running field test can accurately predict the HR associated with the LT and may be a simple test that athletes and coaches could implement to aid in training techniques.

Keywords: blood lactate, heart rate, running, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 233
1281 Coastal Vulnerability under Significant Sea Level Rise: Risk and Adaptation Measures for Mumbai

Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

Abstract:

Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 114
1280 Estimation of Constant Coefficients of Bourgoyne and Young Drilling Rate Model for Drill Bit Wear Prediction

Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

Abstract:

In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
1279 Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Female College Students in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Noor A. Hakim

Abstract:

Several studies in the developed countries investigated the prevalence of diabetes and obesity among individuals from different socioeconomic levels and suggested lower rates among the higher socioeconomic groups. However, studies evaluating diabetes risk and prevalence of obesity among the population of middle- to high-income status in developing countries are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of developing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the weight status of female students in private universities in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. This is a cross-sectional study of 121 female students aged ≤ 25 years old was conducted; participants were recruited from two private universities. Diabetes risk was evaluated using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Anthropometric measurements were assessed, and body-mass-index (BMI) was calculated. Diabetes risk scores indicated that 35.5% of the female students had a slightly elevated risk, and 10.8% had a moderate to high risk to develop T2DM. One-third of the females (29.7%) were overweight or obese. The majority of the normal weight and underweight groups were classified to have a low risk of diabetes, 22.2% of the overweight participants were classified to have moderate to high risk, and over half of the obese participants (55.5%) were classified to be at the moderate to high-risk category. Conclusions: Given that diabetes risk is alarming among the population in Saudi Arabia, healthcare providers should utilize a simple screening tool to identify high-risk individuals and initiate diabetes preventive strategies to prevent, or delay, the onset of T2DM and improve the quality of life.

Keywords: risk of type 2 diabetes, weight status, college students, socioeconomic status

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
1278 Exploring the Use of Universal Design for Learning to Support The Deaf Learners in Lesotho Secondary Schools: English Teachers Voice

Authors: Ntloyalefu Justinah, Fumane Khanare

Abstract:

English learning has been found as one of the prevalent areas of difficulty for Deaf learners. However, studies conducted indicated that this challenge experienced by Deaf learners is an upsetting concern globally as is blamed and hampered by various reasons such as the way English is taught at schools, lack of teachers ' skills and knowledge, therefore, impact negatively on their academic performance. Despite any difficulty in English learning, this language is considered nowadays as the key tool to an educational and occupational career especially in Lesotho. This paper, therefore, intends to contribute to the existing literature by providing the views of Lesotho English teachers, which focuses on how effectively Universal design for learning can be implemented to enhance the academic performance of Deaf learners in context of the English language classroom. The purpose of this study sought to explore the use of universal design for learning (UDL) to support Deaf learners in Lesotho Secondary schools. The present study is informed by interpretative paradigm and situated within a qualitative research approach. Ten participating English teachers from two inclusive schools were purposefully selected and telephonically interviewed to generate data for this study. The data were thematically analysed. The findings indicated that even though UDL is identified as highly proficient and promotes flexibility in teaching methods teachers reflect limited knowledge of the UDL approach. The findings further showed that UDL ensures education for all learners, including marginalised groups, such as learners with disabilities through different teaching strategies. This means that the findings signify the effective use of UDL for the better performance of the English language by Deaf learners (DLs). This aligns with literature that shows mobilizing English teachers as assets help DLs to be engaged and have control in their communities by defining and solving problems using their resources and connections to other networks for asset and exchange. The study, therefore, concludes that teachers acknowledge that even though they assume to be knowledgeable about the definition of UDL, they have a limited practice of the approach, thus they need to be equipped with some techniques and skills to apply for supporting the performance of DLs by using UDL approach in their English teaching. The researchers recommend the awareness of UDL principles by the ministry of Education and Training and teachers training Universities, as well as teachers training colleges, for them to include it in their curricula so that teachers could be properly trained on how to apply it in their teaching effectively

Keywords: deaf learners, Lesotho, support learning, universal design for learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
1277 Digital Interventions for Older People Experiencing Homelessness (OPEH): A Systematic Scoping Review

Authors: Emily Adams, Eddie Donaghy, David Henderson, Lauren Ng, Caroline Sanders, Rowena Stewart, Maria Wolters, Stewart Mercer

Abstract:

Ongoing review abstract: Older People Experiencing Homelessness (OPEH) can have mental and physical indicators of aging 10–20 years earlier than the general population and experience premature mortality due to age-related chronic conditions. Emerging literature suggests digital interventions could positively impact PEH’s well-being. However, the increased reliance on digital delivery may also perpetuate digital inequalities for socially excluded groups, including PEH. The potential triple disadvantage of being older, homeless, and digitally excluded creates a uniquely problematic situation that warrants further research. This scoping review aims to investigate and synthesise the range and type of digital interventions available to OPEH and the organisations that support OPEH. The following databases were searched on 28th July 2023: Medline, Scopus, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)‎, Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA)‎, Association for Computing Machinery Digital Library (ACMDL) and Policy commons. A search strategy was developed in collaboration with an academic librarian. The presentation will include: An introduction to OPEH and digital exclusion Overview of the results of this review: OPEH usage of digital platforms Current digital interventions available The role of support organisations Current gaps in the evidence, future research and recommendations for policy and practice

Keywords: homeless, digital exclusion, aging, technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 52
1276 The Effect of Coconut Oil on Anthropometric Measurements and Irisin Levels in Overweight Individuals

Authors: Bilge Meral Koc, Elvan Yilmaz Akyuz, Tugce Ozlu

Abstract:

This study aimed to discover the effects of coconut oil intake and diet therapy on anthropometric measurements, biochemical findings and irisin levels in overweight individuals. Materials and Methods: Overweight individuals (n=44, 19-30 years) without any chronic disease were included. In this randomized controlled crossover study, the participants were divided into two groups (Group 1: 23 people, Group 2: 21 people). In the first phase, Group 1 received diet therapy to lose 0.5-1 kg of weight per week and 20 mL of coconut oil/day, while Group 2 only received diet therapy. In the second phase, Group 1 received diet therapy while Group 2 received diet therapy and 20 mL of coconut oil/day. Anthropometric measurements were taken four times. Irisin was measured four times by enzyme-linked immunosorbent (ELISA) method and other biochemical findings were measured twice. Statistical analysis was made on SPSS 20. Results: The irisin level decreased significantly when the participants only took coconut oil (p≤0.05). There was a significant decrease in the participants' body weight, body mass index (BMI) level and body fat percentage (p≤0.01). Insulin, total cholesterol, low density lipoproteins (LDL) cholesterol, and triglyceride (TG) levels of all participants decreased significantly (p≤0.05). There was no significant difference in irisin level due to body weight loss (p≤0.05); coconut oil provided a significant decrease in irisin level (p≤0.05). Conclusion: Diet therapy and weight loss did not have an effect on irisin level, but coconut oil alone was found to reduce irisin level. Coconut oil had no impact on anthropometric and biochemical findings.

Keywords: coconut oil, diet therapy, irisin, overweight

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
1275 Surface Modified Quantum Dots for Nanophotonics, Stereolithography and Hybrid Systems for Biomedical Studies

Authors: Redouane Krini, Lutz Nuhn, Hicham El Mard Cheol Woo Ha, Yoondeok Han, Kwang-Sup Lee, Dong-Yol Yang, Jinsoo Joo, Rudolf Zentel

Abstract:

To use Quantum Dots (QDs) in the two photon initiated polymerization technique (TPIP) for 3D patternings, QDs were modified on the surface with photosensitive end groups which are able to undergo a photopolymerization. We were able to fabricate fluorescent 3D lattice structures using photopatternable QDs by TPIP for photonic devices such as photonic crystals and metamaterials. The QDs in different diameter have different emission colors and through mixing of RGB QDs white light fluorescent from the polymeric structures has been created. Metamaterials are capable for unique interaction with the electrical and magnetic components of the electromagnetic radiation and for manipulating light it is crucial to have a negative refractive index. In combination with QDs via TPIP technique polymeric structures can be designed with properties which cannot be found in nature. This makes these artificial materials gaining a huge importance for real-life applications in photonic and optoelectronic. Understanding of interactions between nanoparticles and biological systems is of a huge interest in the biomedical research field. We developed a synthetic strategy of polymer functionalized nanoparticles for biomedical studies to obtain hybrid systems of QDs and copolymers with a strong binding network in an inner shell and which can be modified in the end through their poly(ethylene glycol) functionalized outer shell. These hybrid systems can be used as models for investigation of cell penetration and drug delivery by using measurements combination between CryoTEM and fluorescence studies.

Keywords: biomedical study models, lithography, photo induced polymerization, quantum dots

Procedia PDF Downloads 501
1274 Drought Risk Analysis Using Neural Networks for Agri-Businesses and Projects in Lejweleputswa District Municipality, South Africa

Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

Abstract:

Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

Procedia PDF Downloads 101