Search results for: predictive performance

Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Manufacturing companies are facing global competition and enormous cost pressure. The use of machine learning applications can help reduce production costs and create added value. Predictive quality enables the securing of product quality through data-supported predictions using machine learning models as a basis for decisions on test results. Furthermore, machine learning methods are able to process large amounts of data, deal with unfavourable row-column ratios and detect dependencies between the covariates and the given target as well as assess the multidimensional influence of all input variables on the target. Real production data are often subject to highly fluctuating boundary conditions and unbalanced data sets. Changes in production data manifest themselves in trends, systematic shifts, and seasonal effects. Thus, Machine learning applications require intensive pre-processing and feature selection. Data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets. Within the used real data set of Bosch hydraulic valves, the comparability of the same production conditions in the production of hydraulic valves within certain time periods can be identified by applying the concept drift method. Furthermore, a classification model is developed to evaluate the feature importance in different subsets within the identified time periods. By selecting comparable and stable features, the number of features used can be significantly reduced without a strong decrease in predictive power. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. In this research, the ada boosting classifier is used to predict the leakage of hydraulic valves based on geometric gauge blocks from machining, mating data from the assembly, and hydraulic measurement data from end-of-line testing. In addition, the most suitable methods are selected and accurate quality predictions are achieved.

Keywords: classification, achine learning, predictive quality, feature selection

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Authors: Arjun S.

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This study examines the impact of corporate governance on financial performance of Indian banks during five years (from 2010 to 2015). Based on 218 observations, a quantitative method of data analysis was employed to investigate the relevance of corporate governance mechanisms. The first finding reveals a significant and negative impact of board size on the performance of Indian banks. The research also finds a significant and negative relationship between CEO duality and bank performance. Finally, the correlation results reveal that there is a significant and negative correlation of Bank size and bank performance.

Keywords: Indian banks, financial performance, corporate governance, banksize

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Authors: Adem Öğüt, M. Tahir Demirsel

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Rapid changes and developments today, besides the opportunities and facilities they offer to the organization, may also be a source of danger and difficulties due to the uncertainty. In order to take advantage of opportunities and to take the necessary measures against possible uncertainties, organizations must always follow the changes and developments that occur in the business environment and develop flexible structures and strategies for the alternative cases. Perceived environmental uncertainty is an outcome of managers’ perceptions of the combined complexity, instability and unpredictability in the organizational environment. An environment that is perceived to be complex, changing rapidly, and difficult to predict creates high levels of uncertainty about the appropriate organizational responses to external circumstances. In an uncertain and complex environment, organizations experiencing cutthroat competition may be successful by developing their corporate entrepreneurial ability. Corporate entrepreneurship is a process that includes many elements such as innovation, creating new business, renewal, risk-taking and being predictive. Successful corporate entrepreneurship is a critical factor which has a significant contribution to gain a sustainable competitive advantage, to renew the organization and to adapt the environment. In this context, the objective of this study is to investigate the effect of perceived environmental uncertainty of managers on corporate entrepreneurship performance. The research was conducted on 222 business executives in one of the major industrial zones of Turkey, Konya Organized Industrial Zone (KOS). According to the results, it has been observed that there is a positive statistically significant relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and corporate entrepreneurial activities.

Keywords: corporate entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship, industrial zone, perceived environmental uncertainty, uncertainty

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Authors: Samina Khalid, Shamila Nasreen

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Dimensionality reduction as a preprocessing step to machine learning is effective in removing irrelevant and redundant data, increasing learning accuracy, and improving result comprehensibility. However, the recent increase of dimensionality of data poses a severe challenge to many existing feature selection and feature extraction methods with respect to efficiency and effectiveness. In the field of machine learning and pattern recognition, dimensionality reduction is important area, where many approaches have been proposed. In this paper, some widely used feature selection and feature extraction techniques have analyzed with the purpose of how effectively these techniques can be used to achieve high performance of learning algorithms that ultimately improves predictive accuracy of classifier. An endeavor to analyze dimensionality reduction techniques briefly with the purpose to investigate strengths and weaknesses of some widely used dimensionality reduction methods is presented.

Keywords: age related macular degeneration, feature selection feature subset selection feature extraction/transformation, FSA’s, relief, correlation based method, PCA, ICA

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Authors: Khlif Hamadi

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The principal aim of our research is to analyze the impact of the adoption of e-management approach on the performance of Tunisian firms. The method of structural equation was adopted to conduct our exploratory and confirmatory analysis. The results arising from the questionnaire sent to 155 E-managers affirm that the adoption of e-management approach influences the performance of Tunisian firms. The results of the questionnaire show that e-management favors the deployment of ICT usage and contributes enormously to the performance of the modern enterprise. The theoretical and practical implications of the study, as well as directions for future research, are discussed.

Keywords: e-management, ICT Deployment, organizational performance, e-manager

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Authors: Rafia Rafique, Arifa Khadim

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This research investigates the moderating role of job satisfaction between organizational learning and work performance among nurses. Correlation research design was used. Non-probability purposive sampling technique was utilized to recruit a sample of 110 nurses from public hospitals situated in the city of Lahore. The construct of organizational learning was measured using subscale of Integrated Scale for Measuring Organizational Learning. Job satisfaction was measured with the help of Job Satisfaction Survey. Performance of employees (task performance, contextual performance and counterproductive work behavior) was assessed by Individual Work Performance Questionnaire. Job satisfaction negatively moderates the relationship between organizational learning and counterproductive work behavior. Education has a significant positive relationship with organizational learning. Age, current hospital experience, marital satisfaction and salary of the nurses have positive relationship while number of children has significant negative relationship with counterproductive work behavior. These outcomes can be insightful in understanding the dynamics involved in work performance. Based on the result of this study relevant solutions can be proposed to improve the work performance of nurses.

Keywords: counterproductive work behavior, nurses, organizational learning, work performance

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Authors: Silvia Arrate, Waldo Salud, Eloy París

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The wear of cutting tools is one of the most decisive elements when planning tunneling works, programming the maintenance stops and saving the optimum stock of spare parts during the evolution of the excavation. Being able to predict the behavior of cutting tools can give a very competitive advantage in terms of costs and excavation performance, optimized to the needs of the TBM itself. The incredible evolution of data science in recent years gives the option to implement it at the time of analyzing the key and most critical parameters related to machinery with the purpose of knowing how the cutting head is performing in front of the excavated ground. Taking this as a case study, Metro Line 3 of Guadalajara in Mexico will develop the feasibility of using Specific Energy versus data science applied over parameters of Torque, Penetration, and Contact Force, among others, to predict the behavior and status of cutting tools. The results obtained through both techniques are analyzed and verified in the function of the wear and the field situations observed in the excavation in order to determine its effectiveness regarding its predictive capacity. In conclusion, the possibilities and improvements offered by the application of digital tools and the programming of calculation algorithms for the analysis of wear of cutting head elements compared to purely empirical methods allow early detection of possible damage to cutting tools, which is reflected in optimization of excavation performance and a significant improvement in costs and deadlines.

Keywords: cutting tools, data science, prediction, TBM, wear

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Authors: Musa H. Arslan, Murat Ceylan, Tayfun Koyuncu

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In this study, an artificial intelligence-based (ANN based) analytical method has been developed for analyzing earthquake performances of the reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. 66 RC buildings with four to ten storeys were subjected to performance analysis according to the parameters which are the existing material, loading and geometrical characteristics of the buildings. The selected parameters have been thought to be effective on the performance of RC buildings. In the performance analyses stage of the study, level of performance possible to be shown by these buildings in case of an earthquake was determined on the basis of the 4-grade performance levels specified in Turkish Earthquake Code- 2007 (TEC-2007). After obtaining the 4-grade performance level, selected 23 parameters of each building have been matched with the performance level. In this stage, ANN-based fast evaluation algorithm mentioned above made an economic and rapid evaluation of four to ten storey RC buildings. According to the study, the prediction accuracy of ANN has been found about 74%.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, earthquake, performance, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Syed Hassan Amjad

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In today’s competitive environment, in order for a company to exist, it must continually improve its Performance by reducing cost, improving quality and productivity, and easy access to market.The purpose of this thesis is to check the firm financial growth and performance and which type of factors affect the firm financial performance. This paper examines the key determinants of firm financial performance. We will differentiate between financial and non financial drivers of the firm financial performance. For the measurement of the firm financial performance there are many ways but all the measure had been taken in aggregation, such as debt, tax rate, operating expenses, earning per share and economic conditions. This study has also been done in developed countries but these researches show that foreign companies face many difficulties inimproving the firm financial performance. In findings we found that marketing expenditures and international diversification had a positive impact on firm valuation. In research also found that a firm's ownership composition, particularly the level of equity ownership by Domestic Financial Institutions and Dispersed Public Shareholders, and the leverage of the firm, tax rate and economic conditions were important factors affecting its financial performance.

Keywords: debt, tax rate, firm financial performance, operating expenses, dividend per share, economic conditions

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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Authors: Abha Gupta, Seema Maira, Smita Sinha

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This paper explores using breathing techniques to boost the academic performance of students and describes how teachers can foster the technique in their classrooms. The innovative study examines the differential impact of therapeutic breathing exercises, called pranayama, on students’ academic performance. The paper introduces approaches to therapeutic breathing exercises as an alternative to improve school performance, as well as the self-regulatory behavior, which is known to correlate with academic performance. The study was conducted in a school-wide pranayama program with positive outcomes. The intervention consisted of two breathing exercises, (1) deep breathing, and (2) alternate nostril breathing. It is a quantitative study spanning over a year with about 100 third graders was conducted using daily breathing exercises to investigate the impact of pranayama on academic performance. Significant cumulative gain-scores were found for students who practiced the approach.

Keywords: academic performance, pranayama, therapeutic breathing, yoga

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Authors: Fawad Hussain, Mohammad Basir Bin Saud, Mohd Azwardi Md Isa

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The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the mediating impact of export performance (EP) between technological advancement capabilities (TAC) and business performance (BP) of Malaysian manufacturing MSME’s. Firm’s technological advancement resources are hypothesized as a platform to enhance both exports and business performance of manufacturing MSMEs in Malaysia. This study is twofold, primary it has investigated that technological advancement capabilities helps to appreciates main performance measures noted in terms of export performance and Secondly it investigates that how efficiently and effectively technological advancement capabilities can contributes in overall Malaysian MSME’s business performance. Smart PLS-3 statistical software is used to know the association between technological advancement capabilities, MSME’s export performance and business performance. In this study the data was composed from Malaysian manufacturing MSME’s in east coast industrial zones known as manufacturing hub of MSMEs. Seven Hundred and Fifty (750) questionnaires were distributed but only 148 usable questionnaires are returned. The finding of this study indicated that technological advancement capabilities helps to strengthen the export in term of time and cost efficient and it plays a significant role in appreciating their business performance. This study is helpful for small and medium enterprises owners who intent to expand their business overseas and though smart technological advancement resources they can achieve their business competitiveness and excellence both at local and international markets.

Keywords: technological advancement capabilities, export performance, business performance, small and medium manufacturing enterprises, malaysia

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu

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Patents play a crucial role in protecting innovation and intellectual property. Early prediction of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) patents helps researchers and companies allocate resources and make better decisions. Understanding the key factors that influence patent impact can assist researchers in gaining a better understanding of the evolution of AI technology and innovation trends. Therefore, identifying highly impactful patents early and providing support for them holds immeasurable value in accelerating technological progress, reducing research and development costs, and mitigating market positioning risks. Despite the extensive research on AI patents, accurately predicting their early impact remains a challenge. Traditional methods often consider only single factors or simple combinations, failing to comprehensively and accurately reflect the actual impact of patents. This paper utilized the artificial intelligence patent database from the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the Len.org patent retrieval platform to obtain specific information on 35,708 AI patents. Using six machine learning models, namely Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regression, XGBoost Regression, LightGBM Regression, Support Vector Machine Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbors Regression, and using early indicators of patents as features, the paper comprehensively predicted the impact of patents from three aspects: technical, social, and economic. These aspects include the technical leadership of patents, the number of citations they receive, and their shared value. The SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) metric was used to explain the predictions of the best model, quantifying the contribution of each feature to the model's predictions. The experimental results on the AI patent dataset indicate that, for all three target variables, LightGBM regression shows the best predictive performance. Specifically, patent novelty has the greatest impact on predicting the technical impact of patents and has a positive effect. Additionally, the number of owners, the number of backward citations, and the number of independent claims are all crucial and have a positive influence on predicting technical impact. In predicting the social impact of patents, the number of applicants is considered the most critical input variable, but it has a negative impact on social impact. At the same time, the number of independent claims, the number of owners, and the number of backward citations are also important predictive factors, and they have a positive effect on social impact. For predicting the economic impact of patents, the number of independent claims is considered the most important factor and has a positive impact on economic impact. The number of owners, the number of sibling countries or regions, and the size of the extended patent family also have a positive influence on economic impact. The study primarily relies on data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office for artificial intelligence patents. Future research could consider more comprehensive data sources, including artificial intelligence patent data, from a global perspective. While the study takes into account various factors, there may still be other important features not considered. In the future, factors such as patent implementation and market applications may be considered as they could have an impact on the influence of patents.

Keywords: patent influence, interpretable machine learning, predictive models, SHAP

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Authors: Zhiyuan Du, Baisravan Hom Chaudhuri, Pierluigi Pisu

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In connected vehicle systems where wireless communication is available among the involved vehicles and intersection controllers, it is possible to design an intersection coordination strategy that leads the connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) travel through the road intersections without the conventional traffic light control. In this paper, we present a distributed coordination strategy for the CAVs at multiple interconnected intersections that aims at improving system fuel efficiency and system mobility. We present a distributed control solution where in the higher level, the intersection controllers calculate the road desired average velocity and optimally assign reference velocities of each vehicle. In the lower level, every vehicle is considered to use model predictive control (MPC) to track their reference velocity obtained from the higher level controller. The proposed method has been implemented on a simulation-based case with two-interconnected intersection network. Additionally, the effects of mixed vehicle types on the coordination strategy has been explored. Simulation results indicate the improvement on vehicle fuel efficiency and traffic mobility of the proposed method.

Keywords: connected vehicles, automated vehicles, intersection coordination systems, multiple interconnected intersections, model predictive control

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Authors: Ali Hajiesmaeili, Mehdi Rahimi, Ehsan Jaberi, Amir Abbas Hosseini

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The purpose of this study is investigating the influences of logistics performance on organizational performance including both marketing & financial aspects, and showing the financial impacts of selecting the right marketing and logistics priorities in line with their supply chain type, and also giving the practitioners an advance identification of their priorities and participation types of supply chain, and the best combination of their strategies and resources in this regard. We made use of the original model’s questionnaire to gather all expert’s data and also SPSS and AMOS Ver.22 to analyze the gathered data. CFA method was also used to test whether a relationship between observed variables and their underlying latent constructs exists. Supply chain strategy implementation leads to logistics performance improvement, and marketing performance will be affected as well. Logistics service providers should focus on enhancement of supply chain performance, since logistics performance has been considered as a basis of evaluation of supply chain management strategy. Consequently, performance of the organization will be enhanced. This case is the first research made in Iran that analyzes the relationship between Logistics & Organizational performance in Home Appliances and Home Entertainment companies.

Keywords: logistics, organizational, performance, supply chain, strategy

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Authors: Idris Adamu Alhaji, Wan Fauziahbt Wan Yusoff

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This study was conducted to identify the relationship between Corporate Governance attributes and Firm Performance, various studies, had been carried out mostly in developed countries, in order to identify the relationship between corporate governance attributes and firm performance. Since, the value creation of corporate governance can be measured through the firm performance, corporate governance act as a mechanism to align management's goals with the stakeholders especially to increase firm performance. Despite extensive study of corporate governance there is still an inconsistence relationship between corporate governance attributes and firm performance. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to identify the relationship between corporate governance attributes and firm performance. Five corporate governance element were used as independent variables which include: Independent director, board size, audit committee, leadership structure and board meeting. Meanwhile, the dependent variables are two firm performance measurements; return on equity (ROE) and earning per share (EPS). This study uses quantitative approaches whereby data were gathered from secondary source data were collected from Annual Reports of the companies, online journals etc. This study revealed that, there is a significant relationship between corporate governance attributes and firm performance. Therefore, the results show that good corporate governance practice influence firm performance. Finally, it's hoped that this study provides current corporate governance scenario in Malaysia that can be used to enhance the development of corporate governance of the country.

Keywords: corporate governance, return on equity, earning per share, financial performance

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Authors: Mohd Fitri Mansor, Noor Hidayah Abu, Hussen Nasir

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Human capital is one of valuable assets to the organization in order to sustain organization performance and to achieve both employees and employer objectives. The aim of the study is to examine the powerful of both Human Resource practices (i.e. Training & Development and Compensation & Rewards) towards sustaining SME’s performance. The objectives of the current study are to examine the relationship between training and development as well as compensation and rewards in sustaining Malaysian SME’s performance. Finally, is to identify the strongest variable contribute to the sustainability of SMEs performance. The result from 80 Malaysian SME’s owners found that both variables training & development and compensation & rewards significantly contributes to the sustainability of SME,s performance. Meanwhile, the strongest variable contributes to the sustainability of SMEs performance was training and development. The study contributes to the knowledge and awareness to the SME’s owners an important or the powerful of human resource practices in sustaining their organization performance.

Keywords: training and development, compensation and rewards, sustainability, SME’s performance

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Authors: Mustafa Gultekin

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It is believed that drama can be used in language classes to create a positive atmosphere for students to use the target language in an interactive way. Thus, drama has been extensively used in many settings in language classes. Although happening has been generally used as a performance art of theatre, this new kind of performance has not been widely known in language teaching area. Therefore, it can be an innovative idea to use happening in language classes, and thus a positive environment can be created for students to use the language in an interactive way. Happening can be defined as an art performance that puts emphasis on interaction in an audience. Because of its interactive feature, happening can also be used in language classes to motivate students to use the language in an interactive environment. The present study aims to explain how a happening performance can be applied to a learning environment to teach vocabulary in English. In line with this purpose, a learning environment was designed for a vocabulary presentation lesson. At the end of the performance, students were asked to compare the traditional way of teaching and happening performance in terms of effectiveness. It was found that happening performance provided the students with a more creative and interactive environment to use the language. Therefore, happening can be used in language classrooms as an innovative tool for education.

Keywords: English, happening, language learning, vocabulary teaching

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Authors: Jack Nash, Chris Simpson, Holly Hurn, Ronel Terblanche, Alan Mistlin

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There is an increasing incidence of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) cases throughout sport and with this, a growing interest from governing bodies to ensure these are managed appropriately and player welfare is prioritised. The Berlin consensus statement on concussion in sport recommends a multidisciplinary approach when managing those patients who do not have full resolution of mTBI symptoms. There are as of yet no standardised guideline to follow in the treatment of complex cases mTBI in athletes. The aim of this project was to analyse the outcomes, both clinical and vocational, of all patients admitted to the mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) service at the UK’s Defence Military Rehabilitation Centre Headley Court between 1st June 2008 and 1st February 2017, as a result of a sport induced injury, and evaluate potential predictive indicators of outcome. Patients were identified from a database maintained by the mTBI service. Clinical and occupational outcomes were ascertained from medical and occupational employment records, recorded prospectively, at time of discharge from the mTBI service. Outcomes were graded based on the vocational independence scale (VIS) and clinical documentation at discharge. Predictive indicators including referral time, age at time of injury, previous mental health diagnosis and a financial claim in place at time of entry to service were assessed using logistic regression. 45 Patients were treated for sport-related mTBI during this time frame. Clinically 96% of patients had full resolution of their mTBI symptoms after input from the mTBI service. 51% of patients returned to work at their previous vocational level, 4% had ongoing mTBI symptoms, 22% had ongoing physical rehabilitation needs, 11% required mental health input and 11% required further vestibular rehabilitation. Neither age, time to referral, pre-existing mental health condition nor compensation seeking had a significant impact on either vocational or clinical outcome in this population. The vast majority of patients reviewed in the mTBI clinic had persistent symptoms which could not be managed in primary care. A consultant-led, multidisciplinary approach to the diagnosis and management of mTBI has resulted in excellent clinical outcomes in these complex cases. High levels of symptom resolution suggest that this referral and treatment pathway is successful and is a model which could be replicated in other organisations with consultant led input. Further understanding of both predictive and individual factors would allow clinicians to focus treatments on those who are most likely to develop long-term complications following mTBI. A consultant-led, multidisciplinary service ensures a large number of patients will have complete resolution of mTBI symptoms after sport-related mTBI. Further research is now required to ascertain the key predictive indicators of outcome following sport-related mTBI.

Keywords: brain injury, concussion, neurology, rehabilitation, sports injury

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial component of maintaining a customer-oriented business as in the telecom industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years. It has become more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market of telecom industries, especially for those who are looking to turn over their service providers. So, predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining those customers. Machine learning can be utilized to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: machine learning, gradient boosting, logistic regression, churn, random forest, decision tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score

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Authors: Ibrahim Cil, Onur Kurtcu, H. Ibrahim Demir, Furkan Yener, Yusuf. S. Turkan, Muharrem Unver, Ramazan Evren

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Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method is decision-making way at the end of integrating the current AHP method with fuzzy structure. In this study, the processes of production planning, inventory management and purchasing department of a system were analysed and were requested to decide the performance criteria of each area. At this point, the current work processes were analysed by various decision-makers and comparing each criteria by giving points according to 1-9 scale were completed. The criteria were listed in order to their weights by using Fuzzy AHP approach and top three performance criteria of each department were determined. After that, the performance criteria of supply chain consisting of three departments were asked to determine. The processes of each department were compared by decision-makers at the point of building the supply chain performance system and getting the performance criteria. According to the results, the criteria of performance system of supply chain by using Fuzzy AHP were determined for which will be used in the supply chain performance system in the future.

Keywords: AHP, fuzzy, performance evaluation, supply chain

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Authors: Nastaran Hemmati, Farhad Nikkhahi, Amir Javadi, Sahar Eskandarion, Seyed Mahmuod Amin Marashi

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Neisseria meningitidis, Escherichia coli K, Streptococcus agalactiae, and Streptococcus pneumoniae cause 90% of bacterial meningitis. Almost all infected people die or have irreversible neurological complications. Therefore, it is essential to have a diagnostic kit with the ability to quickly detect these fatal infections. The project involved 212 patients from whom cerebrospinal fluid samples were obtained. After total genome extraction and performing multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), the presence or absence of each infectious factor was determined by comparing with standard strains. The specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value calculated were 100%, 92.9%, 50%, and 100%, respectively. So, due to the high specificity and sensitivity of the designed primers, they can be used instead of bacterial culture that takes at least 24 to 48 hours. The remarkable benefit of this method is associated with the speed (up to 3 hours) at which the procedure could be completed. It is also worth noting that this method can reduce the personnel unintentional errors which may occur in the laboratory. On the other hand, as this method simultaneously identifies four common factors that cause bacterial meningitis, it could be used as an auxiliary method diagnostic technique in laboratories particularly in cases of emergency medicine.

Keywords: cerebrospinal fluid, meningitis, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, simultaneous detection, diagnosis testing

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Vinod Kumar Jaysaval, Prateek Agarwal

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Performance prediction of airborne radar is a challenging and cumbersome task in clutter scenario for different types of targets. A generalized model requires to predict the performance of Radar for air targets as well as ground moving targets. In this paper, we propose a generalized model to bring out the performance of airborne radar for different Pulsed Repetition Frequency (PRF) as well as different type of targets. The model provides a platform to bring out different subsystem parameters for different applications and performance requirements under different types of clutter terrain.

Keywords: airborne radar, blind zone, clutter, probability of detection

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Authors: Felipe Haleyson Ribeiro dos Santos, Edson Ronaldo Guarido Filho

Abstract:

This article aims to review the literature on performance in police organizations. For that, the inOrdinatio method was adopted, which defines the form of selection and classification of articles. The search was carried out in databases, which resulted in a total of 619 documents that were cataloged and classified with the support of the Mendeley software. The theoretical scope intended here is to identify how performance in police organizations has been studied. After deepening the analysis and focusing on management, it was possible to classify the articles into three levels: individual, organizational, and institutional. However, to our best knowledge, no studies were found that addressed the performance relationship between the levels, which can be seen as a suggestion for further research.

Keywords: police management, performance, management, multi-level

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Authors: Wardatutthoyyibah, Satyawan Pudyatmoko, Sena Adi Subrata, Muhammad Ali Imron

Abstract:

The proboscis monkey is an endemic species to the island of Borneo with conservation status IUCN (The International Union for Conservation of Nature) of endangered. The population of the monkey has a specific habitat and sensitive to habitat disturbances. As a consequence of increasing rates of land-use change in the last four decades, its population was reported significantly decreased. We quantified the effect of land use change on the proboscis monkey’s habitat through the species distribution modeling (SDM) approach with Maxent Software. We collected presence data and environmental variables, i.e., land cover, topography, bioclimate, distance to the river, distance to the road, and distance to the anthropogenic disturbance to generate predictive distribution maps of the monkeys. We compared two prediction maps for 2000 and 2015 data to represent the current habitat of the monkey. We overlaid the monkey’s predictive distribution map with the existing protected areas to investigate whether the habitat of the monkey is protected under the protected areas networks. The results showed that almost 50% of the monkey’s habitat reduced as the effect of land use change. And only 9% of the current proboscis monkey’s habitat within protected areas. These results are important for the master plan of conservation of the endangered proboscis monkey and provide scientific guidance for the future development incorporating biodiversity issue.

Keywords: endemic species, land use change, maximum entropy, spatial distribution

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Authors: Rasool Sadeghi, Sayed Mahdi Faghih Imani, Negar Najafi

Abstract:

The inherent features of Named Data Networking (NDN) provides a robust solution for Internet of Thing (IoT). Therefore, NDN-IoT has emerged as a combined architecture which exploits the benefits of NDN for interconnecting of the heterogeneous objects in IoT. In NDN-IoT, caching schemes are a key role to improve the network performance. In this paper, we consider the effectiveness of cache replacement schemes in NDN-IoT scenarios. We investigate the impact of replacement schemes on average delay, average hop count, and average interest retransmission when replacement schemes are Least Frequently Used (LFU), Least Recently Used (LRU), First-In-First-Out (FIFO) and Random. The simulation results demonstrate that LFU and LRU present a stable performance when the cache size changes. Moreover, the network performance improves when the number of consumers increases.

Keywords: NDN-IoT, cache replacement, performance, ndnSIM

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Authors: Panaya Sudta, Wanchalerm Patanacharoenwong, Prachya Bumrungkun

Abstract:

As With the evolution of smart grids, ensuring the reliability and efficiency of electrical systems in smart cities has become crucial. This paper proposes a distinct approach that combines advanced machine learning techniques to accurately predict electrical failures and address voltage reliability issues. This approach aims to improve the accuracy and efficiency of reliability evaluations in smart cities. The aim of this research is to develop a comprehensive predictive model that accurately predicts electrical failures and voltage reliability in smart cities. This model integrates RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks to achieve this objective. The research utilizes RFM analysis, traditionally used in customer value assessment, to categorize and analyze electrical components based on their failure recency, frequency, and monetary impact. K-means clustering is employed to segment electrical components into distinct groups with similar characteristics and failure patterns. LSTM networks are used to capture the temporal dependencies and patterns in customer data. This integration of RFM, K-means, and LSTM results in a robust predictive tool for electrical failures and voltage reliability. The proposed model has been tested and validated on diverse electrical utility datasets. The results show a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods, achieving an accuracy of 92.78% and an F1-score of 0.83. This research contributes to the proactive maintenance and optimization of electrical infrastructures in smart cities. It also enhances overall energy management and sustainability. The integration of advanced machine learning techniques in the predictive model demonstrates the potential for transforming the landscape of electrical system management within smart cities. The research utilizes diverse electrical utility datasets to develop and validate the predictive model. RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks are applied to these datasets to analyze and predict electrical failures and voltage reliability. The research addresses the question of how accurately electrical failures and voltage reliability can be predicted in smart cities. It also investigates the effectiveness of integrating RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks in achieving this goal. The proposed approach presents a distinct, efficient, and effective solution for predicting and mitigating electrical failures and voltage issues in smart cities. It significantly improves prediction accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods. This advancement contributes to the proactive maintenance and optimization of electrical infrastructures, overall energy management, and sustainability in smart cities.

Keywords: electrical state prediction, smart grids, data-driven method, long short-term memory, RFM, k-means, machine learning

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Authors: Mazyar Taghavi

Abstract:

This research examines middle-level managers’ involvement in strategy process in 15 manufacturing and service companies in Iran. We considered two dominant theoretical arguments for expecting a positive association. According to the first direction involvement improves organizational performance by improving the quality of strategic decisions. According to the second track, middle managers contribute to increased levels of performance through strategic consensus among them. Results indicate that involvement in the strategy is related to organizational performance. Involvement is associated with consensus (i.e. strategic understanding and commitment) among middle-level managers. However, findings indicate that consensus is not related to the organizational performance.

Keywords: middle-level management, strategy process, organizational performance, strategy consensus

Procedia PDF Downloads 431