Search results for: gaussian mixture model

Authors: Abootaleb Shirvani, Svetlozar Rachev

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ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance and is a non-financial factor that investors use to specify material risks and growth opportunities in their analysis process. ESG ratings provide a quantitative measure of socially responsible investment, and it is essential to incorporate ESG ratings when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this article, we propose a triple subordinated Lévy process for incorporating numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory to model the time series properties of the stock returns. The motivation for introducing three layers of subordinator is twofold. The first two layers of subordinator capture the skew and fat-tailed properties of the stock return distribution that cannot be explained well by the existing Lévy subordinated model. The third layer of the subordinator introduces ESG valuation and incorporates numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory and option pricing. We employ the triple subordinator Lévy model for developing the ESG-valued stock return model, derive the implied ESG score surfaces for Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon stock returns, and compare the shape of the ESG implied surface scores for these stocks.

Keywords: ESG scores, dynamic asset pricing theory, multiple subordinated modeling, Lévy processes, option pricing

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, Nile delta, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Feddaoui Amina

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Income smoothing represents an attempt on the part of the company's management to reduce variations in earnings through the manipulation of the accounting principles. In this study, we aimed to measure income smoothing practices in a sample of 30 French joint stock companies during the period (2007-2009), we used Dummy variables method and “ECKEL” model to measure income smoothing practices and Binomial test accourding to SPSS program, to confirm or refute our hypothesis. This study concluded that there are no significant statistical indicators of income smoothing practices in the sample studied of French companies during the period (2007-2009), so the income series in the same sample studied of is characterized by stability and non-volatility without any intervention of management through accounting manipulation. However, this type of accounting manipulation should be taken into account and efforts should be made by control bodies to apply Eckel model and generalize its use at the global level.

Keywords: income, smoothing, 'Eckel', French companies

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Terence Lucero F. Menor, Manolo G. Mena, Herman D. Mendoza

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Solder pastes are widely used in creating mechanical, thermal and electrical connection between electronic components. Continued miniaturization of consumer electronics drives manufacturers to achieve smaller, lighter, and faster electronic packages at low cost. This faces them to the difficult challenge of dispensing solder pastes in extremely precise and repeatable manner. The most common problem in solder paste dispensing is the clogging of dispensers which results from agglomeration and settling of solder powders leading to increase on the effective particle size and uneven distribution of particles in the mixture. In this work, microelectrophoresis was employed to investigate the effect of pH and KNO₃ concentration on the electrokinetic behavior and stability of SAC305, PbSn5Ag2.5 and Sn powders in aqueous media. Results revealed that the electrokinetic behavior of the three types of solder powders are similar, which was attributed to high SnO₂ content on the surface of the particles. Electrokinetic measurements showed that the zeta potentials of the solder powders are highly dependent on pH and KNO₃ concentration with isoelectric points ranging from 3.5 to 5.5. Results were verified using stability tests.

Keywords: electrokinetic behavior, isoelectric point, solder powder, stability, surface analysis

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Authors: Mourad Zmami Oussema BenSalha

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The current research aims to assess empirically the reaction of private investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia using a sample of 548 firms operating in manufacturing industries between 1997 and 2002. The micro-econometric model we estimate is based on an accelerator-profit specification investment model increased by two variables that measure the variation and the volatility of exchange rates. Estimates using the system the GMM method reveal that the effects of the exchange rate depreciation on investment are negative since it increases the cost of imported capital goods. Turning to the exchange rate volatility, as measured by the GARCH (1,1) model, our findings assign a significant role to the exchange rate uncertainty in explaining the sluggishness of private investment in Tunisia in the full sample of firms. Other estimation attempts based on various sub samples indicate that the elasticities of investment relative to the exchange rate volatility depend upon many firms’ specific characteristics such as the size and the ownership structure.

Keywords: investment, exchange rate volatility, manufacturing firms, system GMM, Tunisia

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Authors: Shafieeh Mansoori, Fatemeh Yazdian, Ashrafsadat Hatamian, Majid Azizi

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Monascus purpureus, which has a special metabolite with many therapeutic and medicinal properties including antioxidant, antibiotic, anti-hypercholesterolemia, and immunosuppressive properties, is a traditional Chinese fermentation fungus and is used as a natural dietary supplement. Production of desired metabolites actually determined by optimized growth which is supported by some factors such as substrates and Monascus strains type, moisture content of the fermentation mixture, aeration, and control of contamination issues. In this experiment, M. purpureus PTCC5305 was cultured in both the liquid and solid culture medium. The former medium contain YMP (yeast extract, maltose and peptone), PGC (peptone, glucose complex), and GYP (glucose, yeast extract and peptone) medium. After 8 days, the best medium for the cell production was PGC agar medium on solid culture with 0.28 g dry weight of cell mass whereas the best liquid culture was GYP medium with 3.5 g/l dry weight of cell mass. The lowest cell production was on YMP agar with 0.1 g dry weight of cell mass and then YMP medium with 2.5 g/l dry cell weight.

Keywords: Monascus purpureus, solid state fermentation, submerged culture, Chinese fermentation fungus

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Authors: Amina Boukelkoul, Rahil Boukelkoul, Leila Maachia

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The cumulative vapors emitted from the service stations may represent a hazard to the environment and the population. Besides fuel spill and their penetration into deep soil layers are the main contributors to soil and ground-water contamination in the vicinity of the petrol stations. The amount of the effluents from the service stations depends on strategy of maintenance and the policy adopted by the management to reduce the pollution. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of managing the effluents from the service stations which can be captured via use of a finite state Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be done. In this paper, an approach of estimating a probabilistic percentage of the amount of emitted pollutants is presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict the amount according to various options of operation.

Keywords: environment, markov modeling, pollution, service station

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Authors: Miroslaw Wendeker, Piotr Kacejko, Marcin Szlachetka, Mariusz Duk

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This paper discusses a model of fuel economy in a city bus driving in a dynamic urban environment. Rapid changes in speed result in a constantly changing kinetic energy accumulated in a bus mass and an increased fuel consumption due to hardly recuperated kinetic energy. The model is based on the bench test results achieved from chassis dynamometer, airport and city street researches. The verified model was applied to simulate the behavior of a bus during the Japanese JE05 Emission Test Cycle. The fuel consumption was calculated for three separate research stages, i.e. urban, downtown and motorway. The simulations were performed for several values of vehicle mass and electrical load applied to on-board devices. The research results show fuel consumption is impacted by driving dynamics.

Keywords: city bus, heavy duty vehicle, Japanese JE05 test cycle, kinetic energy

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Authors: N. S. Achour, M. Hamdaoui, S. Ben Nasrallah

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Wicking and evaporation of water in porous knitted fabrics is investigated by combining experimental and analytical approaches: The standard wicking model from Lucas and Washburn is enhanced to account for evaporation and gravity effects. The goal is to model the effect of gravity and evaporation on wicking using simple analytical expressions and investigate the influence of fabrics geometrical parameters, such as porosity and thickness on evaporation impact on maximum reachable height values. The results show that fabric properties have a significant influence on evaporation effect. In this paper, an experimental study of determining water kinetics from different knitted fabrics were gravimetrically investigated permitting the measure of the mass and the height of liquid rising in fabrics in various atmospheric conditions. From these measurements, characteristic pore parameters (capillary radius and permeability) can be determined.

Keywords: evaporation, experimental study, geometrical parameters, model, porous knitted fabrics, wicking

Procedia PDF Downloads 582

Authors: Salima Bouadjela, Fatima Zohra Abdoune, Lahcene Mechernene

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PDLCs are currently considered as promising materials for specific applications such as creation of window blinds controlled by electric field, fog simulators, UV protective glasses, high data storage device etc. We know that the electrical field inside the liquid crystal is low compare with the external electric field [1,2]. An addition of high magnetic and electrical, properties containing compounds to the polymer dispersed liquid crystal (PDLC) will enhance the electrical, optical, and magnetic properties of the PDLC [3,4]. Low Concentration of inorganic nanoparticles TiO2 added to nematic liquid crystals (E7) and also combined with monomers (TPGDA) and cured monomer/LC mixture to elaborate polymer-LC-NP dispersion. The presence of liquid crystal and nanoparticles in TPGDA matrix were conformed and the modified properties of PDLC due to doped nanoparticle were studied and explained by the results of FTIR, POM, UV. Incorporation of nanoparticles modifies the structure of PDLC and thus it makes increase the amount of droplets and decrease in droplet size. we found that the presence of TiO2 nanoparticles leads to a shift the nematic-isotropic transition temperature TNI.

Keywords: nanocomposites, PDLC, phases diagram, TiO2

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Authors: Chuan Yang, Jing Bie, Zhong Wang, Panagiotis Psimoulis

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Contemporary studies investigating the association between the spatial configuration of the urban network and economic activities at the street level were mostly conducted within space syntax conceptual framework. These findings supported the theory of 'movement economy' and demonstrated the impact of street configuration on the distribution of pedestrian movement and land-use shaping, especially retail activities. However, the effects varied between different urban contexts. In this paper, the relationship between economic activity distribution and the urban configurational characters was examined at the segment level. In the study area, three kinds of neighbourhood types, urban, suburban, and rural neighbourhood, were included. And among all neighbourhoods, three kinds of urban network form, 'tree-like', grid, and organic pattern, were recognised. To investigate the nested effects of urban configuration measured by space syntax approach and urban context, multilevel zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models were constructed. Additionally, considering the spatial autocorrelation, spatial lag was also concluded in the model as an independent variable. The random effect ZINB model shows superiority over the ZINB model or multilevel linear (ML) model in the explanation of economic activities pattern shaping over the urban environment. And after adjusting for the neighbourhood type and network form effects, connectivity and syntax centrality significantly affect economic activities clustering. The comparison between accumulative and new established economic activities illustrated the different preferences for economic activity location choice.

Keywords: space syntax, economic activities, multilevel model, Chinese city

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Authors: Rabih O. Al-Kaysi, Lingyan Zhu, Muhannah K. Al-Muhannah, Christopher J. Bardeen

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(E)-3-(Anthracen-9-yl)acrylic acid (9-AYAA) 1 exhibits a strong photomechanical response in bulk crystals but is challenging to grow in microcrystalline form. High quality microcrystals of this molecule could not be grown using techniques like sublimation, reprecipitation, and the floating drop method. If the tertbutyl ester of 9-AYAA is used as a starting material, however, high quality, size-uniform microwires could be grown via acid catalyzed hydrolysis. 9-AYAA microwires with uniform length and thickness were produced after a suspension of (E)-tert-butyl 3-(anthracen-9-yl)acrylate ester 2 microparticles was tumble-mixed in a mixture of phosphoric acid and sodium dodecyl sulfate at 35 °C. The dependence of the results on temperature, surfactant and precursor concentration, and mixing mode was investigated. This chemical reaction-growth method was extended to grow microplates of 9-anthraldehyde 3 using the corresponding acylal 4 as the starting material. Under 475 nm irradiation, the 9-AYAA microwires undergo a photoinduced coiling–uncoiling transition, while the 9-anthraldehyde microplates undergo a folding–unfolding transition.

Keywords: photomechanical, surfactant, organic crystals, uniform

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Authors: Apolinar Picado, Ronald Solís, Rafael Gamero

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The thin-layer drying characteristics of instant coffee solution were investigated in a laboratory tunnel dryer. Drying experiments were carried out at three temperatures (80, 100 and 120 °C) and an air velocity of 1.2 m/s. Drying experimental data obtained are fitted to six (6) thin-layer drying models using the non-linear least squares regression analysis. The acceptability of the thin-layer drying model has been based on a value of the correlation coefficient that should be close to one, and low values for root mean square error (RMSE) and chi-square (x²). According to this evaluation, the most suitable model for describing drying process of thin-layer instant coffee solution is the Page model. Further, the effective moisture diffusivity and the activation energy were computed employing the drying experimental data. The effective moisture diffusivity values varied from 1.6133 × 10⁻⁹ to 1.6224 × 10⁻⁹ m²/s over the temperature range studied and the activation energy was estimated to be 162.62 J/mol.

Keywords: activation energy, diffusivity, instant coffee, thin-layer models

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Authors: Retno A. S. Lestari, Wahyudi B. Sediawan, Siti Syamsiah, Sarto

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Sulfur-oxidizing bacteria were isolated and then grown on snakefruits seeds forming biofilm. Their performance in sulfide removal were experimentally observed. Snakefruit seeds were then used as packing material in a cylindrical tube. Biological treatment of hydrogen sulfide from biogas was investigated using biofilm on packed bed of snakefruits seeds. Biogas containing 27,9512 ppm of hydrogen sulfide was flown through the bed. Then the hydrogen sulfide concentrations in the outlet at various times were analyzed. A set of simple kinetics model for the rate of the sulfide removal and the bacterial growth was proposed. The axial sulfide concentration gradient in the flowing liquid are assumed to be steady-state. Mean while the biofilm grows on the surface of the seeds and the oxidation takes place in the biofilm. Since the biofilm is very thin, the sulfide concentration in the biofilm is assumed to be uniform. The simultaneous ordinary differential equations obtained were then solved numerically using Runge-Kutta method. The acuracy of the model proposed was tested by comparing the calcultion results using the model with the experimental data obtained. It turned out that the model proposed can be applied to describe the removal of sulfide liquid using bio-filter in packed bed. The values of the parameters were also obtained by curve-fitting. The biofilter could remove 89,83 % of the inlet of hydrogen sulfide from biogas for 2.5 h, and optimum loading of 8.33 ml/h.

Keywords: Sulfur-oxidizing bacteria, snakefruits seeds, biofilm, packing material, biogas

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Authors: Shuo Liu, Dan Liu

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In the field of named entity recognition, most of the research has been conducted around simple entities. However, for nested named entities, which still contain entities within entities, it has been difficult to identify them accurately due to their boundary ambiguity. In this paper, a hierarchical recognition model is constructed based on the grammatical structure and semantic features of Chinese text for boundary calculation based on lexical features. The analysis is carried out at different levels in terms of granularity, semantics, and lexicality, respectively, avoiding repetitive work to reduce computational effort and using the semantic features of words to calculate the boundaries of entities to improve the accuracy of the recognition work. The results of the experiments carried out on web-based microblogging data show that the model achieves an accuracy of 86.33% and an F1 value of 89.27% in recognizing nested named entities, making up for the shortcomings of some previous recognition models and improving the efficiency of recognition of nested named entities.

Keywords: coarse-grained, nested named entity, Chinese natural language processing, word embedding, T-SNE dimensionality reduction algorithm

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Authors: Amer Alzaidi

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Islamic banking is an alternative solution to those people who are worried about Riba (interest) in all forms of transaction while using banking services and products. Today, banks around the world have Islamic banking services and products the in one form or another. The use of Islamic banking is not only restricted to Muslims world but have reached to non-Muslim countries like UK, USA, Australia and Canada as well. Compared to conventional banking, the adoption rate of Islamic banking is low because of unawareness of customers, financial cost, and performance issues. The interest in Islamic banking by financial institutions as well as low adoption rate motivated us to look this matter into detail in order to identify Critical Success Factors, which are positively motivating customers to use Islamic banking services/ products and Critical Risk Factors, which have significantly negative effect on the adoption of Islamic banking. The CSFs and CRFs will be initially identified from the literature using methodology called Systematic Literature Review, followed by the empirical analysis of these factors using survey research method. Later, we will develop Islamic Banking Adoption Model (IBAM) to help banks to assess their Islamic banking strategic positioning and to improve their operational efficiency. The first potential contribution of this research study will be the development of IBAM protocol that will provide us guidelines for conducting our actual SLR. The second major contribution of this research will be the development of Islamic Banking Adoption Model (IBAM), and the third contribution of this research study will be the evaluation of the developed IBMA.

Keywords: Islamic banking, adoption model, protocol, technology

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Authors: Hassan Athari, Abdurrahim Bolukbasi, Dogan Ciloglu

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This study represented the respiratory alveoli system, and determined the trajectory of inhaled particles more accurately using the modified three-dimensional model with deformable walls of alveoli. The study also considered the tissue tension in the model to demonstrate the effect of lung. Tissue tensions are transferred by the lung parenchyma and produce the pressure gradient. This load expands the alveoli and establishes a sub-ambient (vacuum) pressure within the lungs. Thus, at the alveolar level, the flow field and movement of alveoli wall lead to an integrated effect. In this research, we assume that the three-dimensional alveolus has a visco-elastic tissue (walls). For accurate investigation of pulmonary tissue mechanical properties on particle transport and alveolar flow field, the actual relevance between tissue movement and airflow is solved by two-way FSI (Fluid Structure Interaction) simulation technique in the alveolus. Therefore, the essence of real simulation of pulmonary breathing mechanics can be achieved by developing a coupled FSI computational model. We, therefore conduct a series of FSI simulations over a range of tissue models and breathing rates. As a result, the fluid flows and streamlines have changed during present flexible model against the rigid models and also the two-way coupling particle trajectories have changed against the one-way particle coupling.

Keywords: FSI, two-way particle coupling, alveoli, CDF

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Authors: T. S. Ijimdiya, K. J. Osinubi

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This study examines the influence of compactive efforts on hydraulic conductivity behaviour of compacted black cotton soil treated with bagasse ash which is necessary in assessing the performance of the soil - bagasse ash mixture for use as a suitable barrier material in waste containment application. Black cotton soil treated with up to 12% bagasse ash (obtained from burning the fibrous residue from the extraction of sugar juice from sugarcane) by dry weight of soil for use in waste containment application. The natural soil classifies as A-7-6 or CH in accordance with the AASHTO and the Unified Soil Classification System, respectively. The treated soil samples were prepared at molding water contents of -2, 0, +2, and +4 % of optimum moisture contents and compacted using four compactive efforts of Reduced British Standard Light (RBSL), British Standard light (BSL), West African Standard (WAS) and British Standard Heavy (BSH). The results obtained show that hydraulic conductivity decreased with increase in bagasse ash content, moulding water content and compaction energy.

Keywords: bagasse ash treatment, black cotton soil, hydraulic conductivity, moulding water contents, compactive efforts

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Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

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For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization

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Authors: Li Zhang, Yuehong Su

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Lightpipe as a mature solar light tube technique has been employed worldwide. Accurately assessing the performance of lightpipe and evaluate daylighting available has been a challenging topic. Previous research had used regression model and computational simulation methods to estimate the performance of lightpipe. However, due to the nonlinear nature of solar light transferring in lightpipe, the methods mentioned above express inaccurate and time-costing issues. In the present study, a neural network model as an alternative method is investigated to predict the transmittance of lightpipe. Four types of commercial lightpipe with bended angle 0°, 30°, 45° and 60° are discussed under clear, intermediate and overcast sky conditions respectively. The neural network is generated in MATLAB by using the outcomes of an optical software Photopia simulations as targets for networks training and testing. The coefficient of determination (R²) for each model is higher than 0.98, and the mean square error (MSE) is less than 0.0019, which indicate the neural network strong predictive ability and the use of the neural network method could be an efficient technique for determining the performance of lightpipe.

Keywords: neural network, bended lightpipe, transmittance, Photopia

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Authors: Nina Bijedic, Drazena Gaspar, Mirsad Hadzikadic

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Corruption is an influential and widespread problem. One part of it is so-called petty corruption, related to large-scale bribe giving by ordinary citizens trying to influence the works of public administration or public services. As it is with all means of corruption, petty corruption is related to the level of democracy (or administration efficiency) in a society. The developed model captures some of the factors related to corruptive behavior, as well as people’s attitude towards petty corruption. It has four basic elements: user’s perception of corruption in the society of interest, the influence of social interactions, the influence of penalizing mechanism, and influence of campaigns against petty corruption. The model is agent-based, developed in NetLogo, with a lot of random settings that provide a wider scope of responses. Interactions of different settings for variables of elements provide insight into the influence of each element on attitude towards petty corruption, as well as petty corruptive behavior.

Keywords: agent-based model, attitude, influence, petty corruption, society

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Authors: Yufei Peng, Zhen Qin, Jianbe Li, Jidong Long

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The thermal cathode is widely used in accelerators, FELs and kinds of vacuum electronics. However, emission nonuniformity exists due to surface profile, material distribution, temperature variation, crystal orientation, etc., which will cause intrinsic emittance growth, brightness decline, envelope size augment, device performance deterioration or even failure. To understand how emittance is manipulated by emission nonuniformity, an intrinsic emittance model consisting of contributions from macro and micro surface nonuniformity is developed analytically based on general thermal emission model at temperature limited regime according to a real 3mm cathode. The model shows relative emittance increased about 50% due to temperature variation, and less than 5% from several kinds of micro surface nonuniformity which is much smaller than other research. Otherwise, we also calculated emittance growth combining with Monte Carlo method and PIC simulation, experiments of emission uniformity and emittance measurement are going to be carried out separately.

Keywords: thermal cathode, electron emission fluctuation, intrinsic emittance, surface nonuniformity, cathode lifetime

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Authors: Safayat Ali Shaikh

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Software has been developed for optimal cropping pattern in an irrigation project considering land constraint, water availability constraint and pick up flow constraint using modified Simplex Algorithm. Artificial Neural Network Models (ANN) have been developed to predict rainfall. AR (1) model used to generate 1000 years rainfall data to train the ANN. Simulation has been done with expected rainfall data. Eight number crops and three types of soil class have been considered for optimization model. Area under each crop and each soil class have been quantified using Modified Simplex Algorithm to get optimum net return. Efficacy of the software has been tested using data of large irrigation project in India.

Keywords: artificial neural network, large irrigation project, modified simplex algorithm, optimal cropping pattern

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid

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The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13

Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model

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Authors: Bagher Bayat, Wouter Verhoef, Behnaz Arabi, Christiaan Van der Tol

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The aim of this study was to follow the canopy reflectance patterns in response to soil water deficit and to detect trends of changes in biophysical and biochemical parameters of grass (Poa pratensis species). We used visual interpretation, imaging spectroscopy and radiative transfer model inversion to monitor the gradual manifestation of water stress effects in a laboratory setting. Plots of 21 cm x 14.5 cm surface area with Poa pratensis plants that formed a closed canopy were subjected to water stress for 50 days. In a regular weekly schedule, canopy reflectance was measured. In addition, Leaf Area Index (LAI), Chlorophyll (a+b) content (Cab) and Leaf Water Content (Cw) were measured at regular time intervals. The 1-D bidirectional canopy reflectance model SAIL, coupled with the leaf optical properties model PROSPECT, was inverted using hyperspectral measurements by means of an iterative optimization method to retrieve vegetation biophysical and biochemical parameters. The relationships between retrieved LAI, Cab, Cw, and Cs (Senescent material) with soil moisture content were established in two separated groups; stress and non-stressed. To differentiate the water stress condition from the non-stressed condition, a threshold was defined that was based on the laboratory produced Soil Water Characteristic (SWC) curve. All parameters retrieved by model inversion using canopy spectral data showed good correlation with soil water content in the water stress condition. These parameters co-varied with soil moisture content under the stress condition (Chl: R2= 0.91, Cw: R2= 0.97, Cs: R2= 0.88 and LAI: R2=0.48) at the canopy level. To validate the results, the relationship between vegetation parameters that were measured in the laboratory and soil moisture content was established. The results were totally in agreement with the modeling outputs and confirmed the results produced by radiative transfer model inversion and spectroscopy. Since water stress changes all parts of the spectrum, we concluded that analysis of the reflectance spectrum in the VIS-NIR-MIR region is a promising tool for monitoring water stress impacts on vegetation.

Keywords: hyperspectral remote sensing, model inversion, vegetation responses, water stress

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Authors: Racholsan Raj Nirmal, B. S. V. Patnaik, R. Jayaganthan

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The deformation behaviour of additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy under low strains, high strain rates and elevated temperature conditions is essential to analyse and predict its response against dynamic loading such as impact and thermomechanical fatigue. The constitutive relation of Johnson-Cook is used to capture the strain rate sensitivity and thermal softening effect in AlSi10Mg alloy. Johnson-Cook failure model is widely used for exploring damage mechanics and predicting the fracture in many materials. In this present work, Johnson-Cook material and damage model parameters for additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy have been determined numerically from four types of uniaxial tensile test. Three different uniaxial tensile tests with dynamic strain rates (0.1, 1, 10, 50, and 100 s^-1) and elevated temperature tensile test with three different temperature conditions (450 K, 500 K and 550 K) were performed on 3D printed AlSi10Mg alloy in ABAQUS/Explicit. Hexahedral elements are used to discretize tensile specimens and fracture energy value of 43.6 kN/m was used for damage initiation. Levenberg Marquardt optimization method was used for the evaluation of Johnson-Cook model parameters. It was observed that additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy has shown relatively higher strain rate sensitivity and lower thermal stability as compared to the other Al alloys.

Keywords: ABAQUS, additive manufacturing, AlSi10Mg, Johnson-Cook model

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Authors: Safaa H. Sindi, Michael Roe

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This project divides supply chain (SC) models into seven Eras, according to the evolution of the market’s needs throughout time. The five earliest Eras describe the emergence of supply chains, while the last two Eras are to be created. Research objectives: The aim is to generate the two latest Eras with their respective models that focus on the consumable goods. Era Six contains the Optimal Multidimensional Matrix (OMM) that incorporates most characteristics of the SC and allocates them into four quarters (Agile, Lean, Leagile, and Basic SC). This will help companies, especially (SMEs) plan their optimal SC route. Era Seven creates an Automated Multidimensional Model (AMM) which upgrades the matrix of Era six, as it accounts for all the supply chain factors (i.e. Offshoring, sourcing, risk) into an interactive system with Heuristic Learning that helps larger companies and industries to select the best SC model for their market. Methodologies: The data collection is based on a Fuzzy-Delphi study that analyses statements using Fuzzy Logic. The first round of Delphi study will contain statements (fuzzy rules) about the matrix of Era six. The second round of Delphi contains the feedback given from the first round and so on. Preliminary findings: both models are applicable, Matrix of Era six reduces the complexity of choosing the best SC model for SMEs by helping them identify the best strategy of Basic SC, Lean, Agile and Leagile SC; that’s tailored to their needs. The interactive heuristic learning in the AMM of Era seven will help mitigate error and aid large companies to identify and re-strategize the best SC model and distribution system for their market and commodity, hence increasing efficiency. Potential contributions to the literature: The problematic issue facing many companies is to decide which SC model or strategy to incorporate, due to the many models and definitions developed over the years. This research simplifies this by putting most definition in a template and most models in the Matrix of era six. This research is original as the division of SC into Eras, the Matrix of Era six (OMM) with Fuzzy-Delphi and Heuristic Learning in the AMM of Era seven provides a synergy of tools that were not combined before in the area of SC. Additionally the OMM of Era six is unique as it combines most characteristics of the SC, which is an original concept in itself.

Keywords: Leagile, automation, heuristic learning, supply chain models

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Authors: N. A. Soliman, A. F. Omran, A. Tagnit-Hamou

Abstract:

The finely ground waste glass has successfully used by the authors to develop and patent an ecological ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC), which was named as ultra-high-performance-glass concrete (UHPGC). After the successful development in laboratory, the current research presents a comparison between traditional UHPC and UHPGC produced using large-scale pilot plant mixer, in terms of rheology, mechanical, and durability properties. The rheology of the UHPGCs was improved due to the non-absorptive nature of the glass particles. The mechanical performance of UHPGC was comparable and very close to the traditional UHPC due to the pozzolan reactivity of the amorphous waste glass. The UHPGC has also shown excellent durability: negligible permeability (chloride-ion ≈ 20 Coulombs from the RCPT test), high abrasion resistance (volume loss index less than 1.3), and almost no freeze-thaw deterioration even after 1000 freeze-thaw cycles. The enhancement in the strength and rigidity of the UHPGC mixture can be referred to the inclusions of the glass particles that have very high strength and elastic modulus.

Keywords: ground glass pozzolan, large-scale production, sustainability, ultra-high performance glass concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Upasana G. Singh, Meera Gungea

Abstract:

Learning is no more confined to the traditional classroom, teacher, and student interaction. Many universities offer courses through the Open and Distance Learning (ODL) mode, attracting a diversity of learners in terms of age, gender, and profession to name a few. The ODL mode has surfaced as one of the famous sought-after modes of learning, allowing learners to invest in their educational growth without hampering their personal and professional commitments. This mode of learning, however, requires that those who ultimately choose to adopt it must be prepared to undertake studies through such medium. The purpose of this research is to assess whether students who join universities offering courses through the ODL mode are ready to embark and study within such a framework. This study will be helpful to unveil the challenges students face in such an environment and thus contribute to developing a framework to ease adoption and integration into the ODL environment. Prior to the implementation of e-learning, a readiness assessment is essential for any institution that wants to adopt any form of e-learning. Various e-learning readiness assessment models have been developed over the years. However, this study is based on a conceptual model for e-Learning Readiness Assessment which is a ‘hybrid model’. This hybrid model consists of 4 main parameters: 1) Technological readiness, 2) Culture readiness, 3) Content readiness, and 4) Demographics factors, with 4 sub-areas, namely, technology, innovation, people and self-development. The model also includes the attitudes of users towards the adoption of e-learning as an important aspect of assessing e-learning readiness. For this study, some factors and sub-factors of the hybrid model have been considered and adapted, together with the ‘Attitude’ component. A questionnaire was designed based on the models and students where the target population were students enrolled at the Open University of Mauritius, in undergraduate and postgraduate courses. Preliminary findings indicate that most (68%) learners have an average knowledge about ODL form of learning, despite not many (72%) having previous experience with ODL. Despite learning through ODL 74% of learners preferred hard copy learning material and 48% found difficulty in reading learning material on electronic devices.

Keywords: open learning, distance learning, student readiness, a hybrid model

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: K. E. Oyetade, S. D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

One of the fundamental characteristics of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been the ever-changing nature of continuous release and models of ICTs with its impact on the academic, social, and psychological benefits of its introduction in schools. However, there seems to be a growing concern about its negative impact on students when introduced early in schools for teaching and learning. This study aims to design a model of child development factors affecting the early introduction of ICTs in schools in an attempt to improve the understanding of child development and introduction of ICTs in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of child development theories and child development factors. The child development theoretical framework that fitted to the best of all child development factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study hence found that the Jean Piaget cognitive developmental theory is the most adequate theoretical frameworks for modeling child development factors for ICT introduction in schools.

Keywords: child development factors, child development theories, ICTs, theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 413