Search results for: intrinsic rate of population increase

Authors: Yael Wolff Sagy, Yiska Loewenberg Weisband, Vered Kaufman Shriqui, Michal Krieger, Arie Ben Yehuda, Ronit Calderon Margalit

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Background: Obesity is both a risk factor and common comorbidity of diabetes. Obesity impedes the achievement of glycemic control, and enhances damage caused by hyperglycemia to blood vessels; thus it increases diabetes-related complications. This study assessed the prevalence of obesity and morbid obesity among Israeli adults with diabetes, and estimated disparities associated with sex and socioeconomic position (SEP). Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in the setting of the Israeli National Program for Quality Indicators in Community Healthcare. Data on all the Israeli population is retrieved from electronic medical records of the four health maintenance organizations (HMOs). The study population included all Israeli patients with diabetes aged 20-64 with documented body mass index (BMI) in 2016 (N=180,451). Diabetes was defined as the existence of one or more of the following criteria: (a) Plasma glucose level >200 mg% in at least two tests conducted at least one month apart in the previous year; (b) HbA1c>6.5% at least once in the previous year (c) at least three prescriptions of diabetes medications were dispensed during the previous year. Two measures were included: the prevalence of obesity (defined as last BMI≥ 30 kg/m2 and <35 kg/m2) and the prevalence of morbid obesity (defined as last BMI≥ 35 kg/m2) in individuals aged 20-64 with diabetes. The cut-off value for morbid obesity was set in accordance with the eligibility criteria for bariatric surgery in diabetics. Data were collected by the HMOs and aggregated by age, sex and SEP. SEP was based on statistical areas ranking by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics and divided into 4 categories, ranking from 1 (lowest) to 4 (highest). Results: BMI documentation among adults with diabetes was 84.9% in 2016. The prevalence of obesity in the study population was 30.5%. Although the overall rate was similar in both sexes (30.8% in females, 30.3% in males), SEP disparities were stronger in females (32.7% in SEP level 1 vs. 27.7% in SEP level 4; 18.1% relative difference) compared to males (30.6% in SEP level 1 vs. 29.3% in SEP level 4; 4.4% relative difference). The overall prevalence of morbid obesity in this population was 20.8% in 2016. The rate among females was almost double compared to the rate in males (28.1% and 14.6%, respectively). In both sexes, the prevalence of morbid obesity was strongly associated with lower SEP. However, in females, disparities between SEP levels were much stronger (34.3% in SEP level 1 vs. 18.7% in SEP level 4; 83.4% relative difference) compared to SEP-disparities in males (15.7% in SEP level 1 vs. 12.3% in SEP level 4; 27.6% relative difference). Conclusions: The overall prevalence of BMI≥ 30 kg/m2 among adults with diabetes in Israel exceeds 50%; and the prevalence of morbid obesity suggests that 20% meet the BMI-criteria for bariatric surgery. Prevalence rates show major SEP- and sex-disparities; especially strong SEP disparities in morbid obesity among females. These findings highlight the need for greater consideration of different population groups when implementing interventions.

Keywords: diabetes, health disparities, health policy, obesity, socio-economic position

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Authors: Hamid Boustanifar, Geraldo Cerqueiro, María Fabiana Penas

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We exploit state-level changes in the amount of personal wealth individuals can protect under Chapter 7 to analyze the causal effect of debtor protection on income inequality. We find that an increase in state exemptions significantly increases inequality by reducing income for low-income individuals and by increasing income for high-income individuals. The increase in inequality is four times larger among the self-employed than among wage earners, and it is due mainly to a growing income gap between skilled (i.e., individuals with a college degree) and unskilled entrepreneurs. We also find that the employment rate of skilled entrepreneurs significantly increases, while the employment rate of unskilled wage earners falls. Our results are consistent with a recent literature that shows that higher exemptions redistribute credit from low-wealth to high-wealth entrepreneurs, affecting the performance of their businesses.

Keywords: debtor protection, credit markets, income inequality, debtor protection laws

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Authors: Dongjoo Kim, Chang-Sik Son, Won-Seok Kang

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Adequate sleep affects various parts of one’s overall physical and mental life. As one of the methods in determining the appropriate amount of sleep, this research presents a heart rate based sleep quality index. In order to evaluate sleep quality using the heart rate, sleep data from 280 subjects taken over one month are used. Their sleep data are categorized by a three-part heart rate range. After categorizing, some features are extracted, and the statistical significances are verified for these features. The results show that some features of this sleep quality index model have statistical significance. Thus, this heart rate based sleep quality index may be a useful discriminator of sleep.

Keywords: sleep, sleep quality, heart rate, statistical analysis

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Authors: Phutthiwat Waiyawuththanapoom

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This research is objected to study the pattern and channel of distribution of Ang Thong’s court doll OTOP product and try to develop the quality of distribution of the court doll product. The population of this research is 50 court doll manufacturers of Ang Thong’s court doll. The data and information was collected by using the questionnaire and use percentage, mean and standard deviation as an analysis tools. The distribution channel of Ang Thong’s court doll can be separated into 3 channels which are direct distribution from the manufacturer, via the middleman and via the co-operated manufacturing group. In the direct distribution from the manufacturer channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to how they keep the inventory. In the distribution via the middleman channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the distribution efficiency. But in the distribution via the co-operated manufacturing group, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the public relationship.

Keywords: distribution, court doll, Ang Thong province, business and social sciences

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Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar

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The airline industry is continuously challenging how to safely increase the service life of the aircraft with limited maintenance budgets. Operators are looking for the most qualified maintenance providers of aircraft components, offering the finest customer service. Component owner and maintenance provider is offering an Abacus agreement (Aircraft Component Leasing) to increase the efficiency and productivity of the customer service. To increase the customer service, the current focus on No Fault Found (NFF) units must change into the focus on Early Failure (EF) units. Since the effect of EF units has a significant impact on customer satisfaction, this needs to increase the reliability of EF units at minimal cost, which leads to the goal of this paper. By identifying the reliability of early failure (EF) units with regards to No Fault Found (NFF) units, in particular, the root cause analysis with an integrated cost analysis of EF units with the use of a failure mode analysis tool and a cost model, there will be a set of EF maintenance improvements. The data used for the investigation of the EF units will be obtained from the Pentagon system, an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system used by Fokker Services. The Pentagon system monitors components, which needs to be repaired from Fokker aircraft owners, Abacus exchange pool, and commercial customers. The data will be selected on several criteria’s: time span, failure rate, and cost driver. When the selected data has been acquired, the failure mode and root cause analysis of EF units are initiated. The failure analysis approach tool was implemented, resulting in the proposed failure solution of EF. This will lead to specific EF maintenance improvements, which can be set-up to decrease the EF units and, as a result of this, increasing the reliability. The investigated EFs, between the time period over ten years, showed to have a significant reliability impact of 32% on the total of 23339 unscheduled failures. Since the EFs encloses almost one-third of the entire population.

Keywords: supportability, no fault found, FMEA, early failure, availability, operational reliability, predictive model

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Authors: Zeliha Erdogan, Hatice Torcu Koc

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The fish, Sarpa salpa (L.), is one of the main macroherbivores in the Mediterranean. A total of 600 Salema individuals were collected from around Gökçeada, Sea of Northern Aegean, between January 2014 and January 2015 in order to evaluate some information on the biology of the Salema population. For this aim, measurements of the Salema were obtained using a caliper. The age readings were made from otoliths. The population was composed of 6 age classes (I-VI). The total lengths and total weights of sampled fish were determined to be ranged from 12.5 to 33.1 cm and 33.57 to 559.33 g, respectively. Length-weight relationship for all individuals was calculated as W=0.0085*L3.1723, R2=0.9524. Growth parameters were determined as L∞= 35.55cm, k=0.31, t0= -9.2, '=2.60. As the sexual ratio was 1.08:1 (M: F), the Salema population consisted of 51.66% male and 47.5% female individuals. The highest average condition factors were observed for females in May (1.68) and for males in May (1.67). According to gonad somatic index values, the spawning period was determined twice a year in spring (April) and autumn (October). The highest average hepatosomatix index value was observed for all individuals in May and December. It was estimated that total (Z) mortality, natural (M) mortality, and fishing (F) mortality rates were Z=0.44 year-1, M=0.064 year-1 and F=0.38 year-1, respectively. As the exploitation rate was estimated as E=0.86, it can be shown that the Salema stock was highly influenced by overfishing.

Keywords: biology, sarpa salpa, Gökceada, meadows

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Murat Ahmet Ökmen

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Emerging demand for energy in developing countries rapid population growth and industrialization are causing a rapid increase, such as Turkey. Energy is an important and indispensable factor in the industry. At the same time, energy is one of the main indicators that reflect a country's economic and social development potential. There is a linear relationship between the energy consumption and social development, and in parallel this situation, it is seen that energy consumption increase with economic growth and prosperity. In recent year’s, energy sources consumption is increasingly continuing, because of population growth and economy in Turkey. 80% of the energy used in Turkey is supplied from abroad. At the same time, while almost all of the energy obtained from our country is met by hydropower. Alternatively, studies of determining and using potential renewable energy sources such as solar energy have been realized for recent years. In this study, first of all, the situation of energy sources was examined in Turkey. Information of reserve/capacity, production and consumption values of energy sources were emphasized. For this purpose, energy production and consumption, CO2 emission and electricity energy consumption of countries were investigated. Energy consumption and electricity energy consumption per capita were comparatively analyzed.

Keywords: energy potential, alternative energy sources, solar energy, Turkey

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Authors: Theodore Grosch, Felipe Koji Godinho Hoshino

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In wireless communications, 3GPP LTE is one of the solutions to meet the greater transmission data rate demand. One issue inherent to this technology is the PAPR (Peak-to-Average Power Ratio) of OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing) modulation. This high PAPR affects the efficiency of power amplifiers. One approach to mitigate this effect is the Crest Factor Reduction (CFR) technique. In this work, we simulate the impact of Hard Limited Clipping Crest Factor Reduction technique on BER (Bit Error Rate) in OFDM based Systems. In general, the results showed that CFR has more effects on higher digital modulation schemes, as expected. More importantly, we show the worst-case degradation due to CFR on QPSK, 16QAM, and 64QAM signals in a linear system. For example, hard clipping of 9 dB results in a 2 dB increase in signal to noise energy at a 1% BER for 64-QAM modulation.

Keywords: bit error rate, crest factor reduction, OFDM, physical layer simulation

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Authors: Sayaka Ono, Ryutaro Imai, Tomoko Ehara, Tetsuya Matsumoto, Hajime Matsumura

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Background: Wound pH affects a number of important factors in wound healing. We previously measured the pH value of the exudates collected from second-degree burns and found that the increase in pH was observed in the burn wounds in which colonized by Staphylococcus spp., and the increase in pH was evident prior to the clinical findings of local infection. To investigate the relationship between the changes of pH value and bacterial growth, we performed in vitro study using Pseudomonas aeruginosa and liquid medium as a locally infected wound equivalent model. Methods: Pseudomonas aeruginosa standard strain (ATCCR 10145TM) was cultured at 37 °C environment in Luria Broth Miller medium. The absorbance rate which means the amount of bacteria was measured by a microplate reader 2300EnSpireTM). The pH was measured using pH-indicator strips (MColorpHastTM). The statistical analysis was performed using the product-moment correlation coefficient of Pearson's. Results: The absorbance rate and pH value were increased along with culture period. There was a positive correlation between pH value and absorbance rate (n = 27, Pearson's r = 0.985). Moreover, there was a positive correlation between pH value and the culture period (n = 18, Pearson's r = 0.901). The bacteria was well growth in the media from pH 6.6 to pH 8.0 and the pH of culture media converged at 8 -9 along with the bacterial growth. Conclusion: From these results, we conclude that pH value of the wound is correlated with the number of viable bacteria and bacterial growth periods.

Keywords: colonization, potential of hydrogen, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, wound

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Authors: Maria Cherepanova, Svetlana Maximova

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Background And Aims: Suicide is among ten most common causes of death of the working-age population in the world. According to the WHO forecasts, by 2025 suicide will be the third leading cause of death, after cardiovascular diseases and cancer. In 2019, the global suicide rate in the world was 10,5 per 100,000 people. In Russia, the average figure was 11.6. However, in some depressed regions of Russia, such as Buryatia and Altai, it reaches 35.3. The aim of this study was to develop models based on the regional factors of social well-being deprivation that provoke the suicidal risk of various age groups of Russian population. We also investigated suicidal risk prevention in modern Russia, analyzed its efficacy, and developed recommendations for suicidal risk prevention improvement. Methods: In this study, we analyzed the data from sociological surveys from six regions of Russia. Totally we interviewed 4200 people, the age of the respondents was from 16 to 70 years. The results were subjected to factorial and regression analyzes. Results: The results of our study indicate that young people are especially socially vulnerable, which result in ineffective patterns of self-preservation behavior and increase the risk of suicide. That is due to lack of anti-suicidal barriers formation; low importance of vital values; the difficulty or impossibility to achieve basic needs; low satisfaction with family and professional life; and decrease in personal unconditional significance. The suicidal risk of the middle-aged population is due to a decrease in social well-being in the main aspects of life, which determines low satisfaction, decrease in ontological security, and the prevalence of auto-aggressive deviations. The suicidal risk of the elderly population is due to increased factors of social exclusion which result in narrowing the social space and limiting the richness of life. Conclusions: The existing system for lowering suicide risk in modern Russia is predominantly oriented to a medical treatment, which provides only intervention to people who already committed suicide, that significantly limits its preventive effectiveness and social control of this deviation. The national strategy for suicide risk reduction in modern Russian society should combine medical and social activities, designed to minimize possible situations resulting to suicide. The strategy for elimination of suicidal risk should include a systematic and significant improvement of the social well-being of the population and aim at overcoming the basic aspects of social disadvantages such as poverty, unemployment as well as implementing innovative mental health improvement, developing life-saving behavior that will help to counter suicides in Russia.

Keywords: social factors, suicide, prevention, Russia

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Authors: Christina Tay

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This paper investigates the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on bilateral trade in goods. Empirical analysis is performed on the United States and 34 partnering countries from 2000 to 2013. Our econometric model fits the data well, explaining 52% of the variation in trade flows for goods trade, 53.2% of the variation in trade flows for goods export and 48% of the variation in trade flows for goods import. For every 10% increase in fixed broadband Internet subscribers per 100 people increases, goods trade by 7.9% and for every 5% increase in fixed broadband Internet subscribers per 100 people, goods export increases by 11%. For every 1% increase in fixed telephone line penetration per 100 people, goods trade increases by 26.3%, goods export increases by 24.4% and goods import increases by 24.8%. For every 1% increase in mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions, goods trade decreases by 29.6% and goods export decreases by 27.1%, whilst for every 0.01% increase in mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions, goods import decreases by 34.3%. For every 1% increase in the percentage of population who used the Internet from any location in the last 12 months Internet, goods trade increases by 32.5%, goods export increases by 38.9%, goods import increases by 33%. All our trade determinants as well as our ICT variables have significances on goods exports for the US. We can also draw from our study that the US relies more rather heavily on ICT for its goods export compared to goods import.

Keywords: bilateral trade, fixed broadband, fixed telephone, goods trade, information and communicative technologies, Internet, mobile-cellular phone

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Authors: Abida Haddouche, Ahmed Chrif Toubal

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The Neogene basin of the Eastern Mitidja, object of the study area, represents potential water resources and especially groundwater reserves. This water is an important economic; this resource is highly sensitive which need protection and preservation. Unfortunately, these waters are exposed to various forms of pollution, whether from urban, agricultural, industrial or merely accidental. This pollution is a permanent risk of limiting resource. In this context, the work aims to evaluate the intrinsic vulnerability of the aquifer to protect and preserve the quality of this resource. It will focus on the disposal of water and land managers a cartographic document accessible to locate the areas where the water has a high vulnerability. Vulnerability mapping of the Easter Mitidja quaternary aquifer is performed by applying three methods (DRASTIC, DRIST, and GOD). Comparison and validation results show that the DRASTIC method is the most suitable method for aquifer vulnerability of the study area.

Keywords: Aquifer of Mitidja, DRASTIC method, geographic information system (GIS), vulnerability mapping

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Apolinar Picado, Steve Alfaro, Rafael Gamero

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Energy and exergy analyses of thin-layer drying of pineapple slices (Ananas comosus L.) were conducted in a laboratory tunnel dryer. Drying experiments were carried out at three temperatures (100, 115 and 130 °C) and an air velocity of 1.45 m/s. The effects of drying variables on energy utilisation, energy utilisation ratio, exergy loss and exergy efficiency were studied. The enthalpy difference of the gas increased as the inlet gas temperature increase. It is observed that at the 75 minutes of the drying process the outlet gas enthalpy achieves a maximum value that is very close to the inlet value and remains constant until the end of the drying process. This behaviour is due to the reduction of the total enthalpy within the system, or in other words, the reduction of the effective heat transfer from the hot gas flow to the vegetable being dried. Further, the outlet entropy exhibits a significant increase that is not only due to the temperature variation, but also to the increase of water vapour phase contained in the hot gas flow. The maximum value of the exergy efficiency curve corresponds to the maximum value observed within the drying rate curves. This maximum value represents the stage when the available energy is efficiently used in the removal of the moisture within the solid. As the drying rate decreases, the available energy is started to be less employed. The exergetic efficiency was directly dependent on the evaporation flux and since the convective drying is less efficient that other types of dryer, it is likely that the exergetic efficiency has relatively low values.

Keywords: efficiency, energy, exergy, thin-layer drying

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Authors: J. Stejskal, P. Hajek

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The goal of this article is the analysis of knowledge transfer at the regional level of the Czech Republic. We show how goals of enterprises´ innovative activities are related to the rate of cooperation with different actors within regional innovative systems as well as in other world regions. The results show that the most important partners of enterprises are their suppliers and clients in most Czech regions. The cooperation rate of enterprises correlates significantly mainly with enterprises´ efforts to enter new markets and reduce labour costs per unit output. The meaning of this cooperation decreases with the increase of partner’s distance. Regarding the type of a cooperating partner, cooperation within an enterprise had to do with the increase of market share and decrease of labour costs. On the other hand, cooperation with clients had to do with efforts to replace outdated products or processes or enter new markets. We can pay less attention to the cooperation with government authorities and organizations. The reasons for marginalization of this cooperation should be submitted to further detailed investigation.

Keywords: knowledge, transfer, innovative process, Czech republic, region

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Hans-Peter Piepho

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We aim to model dynamics of wildlife or pastoral livestock population for understanding of their population change and hence for wildlife conservation and promoting human welfare. The study is motivated by an age-sex structured population counts in different regions of Serengeti-Mara during the period 1989-2003. Developing reliable and realistic models for population dynamics of large herbivore population can be a very complex and challenging exercise. However, the Bayesian statistical domain offers some flexible computational methods that enable the development and efficient implementation of complex population dynamics models. In this work, we have used a novel Bayesian state-space model to analyse the dynamics of topi and hartebeest populations in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem of East Africa. The state-space model involves survival probabilities of the animals which further depend on various factors like monthly rainfall, size of habitat, etc. that cause recent declines in numbers of the herbivore populations and potentially threaten their future population viability in the ecosystem. Our study shows that seasonal rainfall is the most important factors shaping the population size of animals and indicates the age-class which most severely affected by any change in weather conditions.

Keywords: bayesian state-space model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, population dynamics, conservation

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Authors: Kalu Ram Meena, Aditi Kar Gangopadhyay, Satrajit Mandal

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Two normal populations with different means and same variance are considered, where the variances are known. The population with the smaller sample mean is selected. Various estimators are constructed for the mean of the selected normal population. Finally, they are compared with respect to the bias and MSE risks by the method of Monte-Carlo simulation and their performances are analysed with the help of graphs.

Keywords: estimation after selection, Brewster-Zidek technique, estimators, selected populations

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Authors: Yun Yu Stephanie Law

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Sociometer Theory is well tested among young adults in western population, however, limited research is found for other age groups, like adolescent and middle-adulthood in Asia population. Thus, one of the main purposes of this study is to verify the validity of Sociometer Theory in different age groups among Asian. To be specific, we hypothesized that an increase in one’s perceived social rejection is associated to a decrease in his/her state self-esteem among all age groups in Asian population. And we expected that this association can be found among all age groups including adolescent, young adults and middle-adults group in our first study. In this way, we can verify the validity of Sociometer Theory across different age groups as well as its significance in Asian population. Furthermore, those participants who received rejection about ‘mate-role’ would also receive some negative feedbacks regarding their current/future capacity of being a good mate. Results suggested that participants’ state self-esteem sensitivity for mating-capacity rejection is higher when comparing to that of friend-capacity rejection, i.e. greater drop in state self-esteem when receiving mating-capacity feedbacks then receiving friend-capacity feedbacks. These results, however, is just applicable on young adults. Thus, the main purpose of study two would be testing the state self-esteem sensitivity towards social rejection in different domains among three age groups. We hypothesized that group differences would be found for three age groups regarding state self-esteem sensitivity. Research question 1: perceived social rejection is associated to decrease in state self-esteem, is applicable among different age groups in Asia population. Research question 2: there are significant group differences for three age groups regarding state self-esteem sensitivity. Methods: 300 subjects are divided into three age groups, adolescents group, young adult group and middle-adult group, with 100 subjects in each group. Two questionnaires were used in testing this fundamental concept. Subjects were then asked to rate themselves on questionnaire in measuring their current state self-esteem in order to obtain the baseline measurements for later comparison. In order to avoid demand characteristics from subjects, other unrelated tasks like word matching were also given after the first test. Results: A positive correlation between scores in questionnaire 1 and questionnaire 2 among all age groups. Conclusion: State self-esteem decrease to both imagined social rejection (study1) and experienced social rejection (study2). Moreover, level of decrease in state self-esteem vary when receiving different domains of social rejection. Implications: a better understanding of self-esteem development for various age group might bring insights for education systems and policies for teaching approaches and learning methods among different age groups.

Keywords: state self-esteem, social rejection, stage theory, self-feelings

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Authors: R. Z. Wang, B. C. Lin, C. H. Huang

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This study proposes a new method to simulate the crack propagation under mode-I loading using Vector Form Intrinsic Finite Element (VFIFE) method. A new idea which is expected to combine both VFIFE and J-integral is proposed to calculate the stress density factor as the crack critical in elastic crack. The procedure of implement the cohesive crack propagation in VFIFE based on the fictitious crack model is also proposed. In VFIFIE, the structure deformation is described by numbers of particles instead of elements. The strain energy density and the derivatives of the displacement vector of every particle is introduced to calculate the J-integral as the integral path is discrete by particles. The particle on the crack tip separated into two particles once the stress on the crack tip satisfied with the crack critical and then the crack tip propagates to the next particle. The internal force and the cohesive force is applied to the particles.

Keywords: VFIFE, crack propagation, fictitious crack model, crack critical

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Authors: Dheeraj Sharma, Santosh Kumar Vishvakarma

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We present a detailed analysis of analog and radiofrequency (RF) performance with different gate lengths for nanowire cylindrical gate (CylG) gate-all-around (GAA) MOSFET. CylG GAA MOSFET not only suppresses the short channel effects (SCEs), it is also a good candidate for analog/RF device due to its high transconductance (gm) and high cutoff frequency (fT ). The presented work would be beneficial for a new generation of RF circuits and systems in a broad range of applications and operating frequency covering the RF spectrum. For this purpose, the analog/RF figures of merit for CylG GAA MOSFET is analyzed in terms of gate to source capacitance (Cgs), gate to drain capacitance (Cgd), transconductance generation factor gm = Id (where Id represents drain current), intrinsic gain, output resistance, fT, maximum frequency of oscillation (fmax) and gain bandwidth (GBW) product.

Keywords: Gate-All-Around MOSFET, GAA, output resistance, transconductance generation factor, intrinsic gain, cutoff frequency, fT

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Ambika Roy Bardhan

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Kolkata, the City of Joy, is a greying metropolis not only in respect of its concrete jungle but also because of the largest population of 60-plus residents that it shelters among all other cities in India. Declining birth and death rates and a negative growth of population indicate that the city has reached the last stage of demographic transition. Thus, the obvious consequence has been the ageing of its population. With this background, the present paper attempts to study the demographic and socio-economic status of the elderly population in Kolkata. Analysis and findings have been based on secondary data obtained from Census of India of various years, Sample Registration System Reports and reports by HelpAge India. Findings show that the elderly population is increasing continuously. With respect to gender, the male elderly outnumbers the female elderly population. The percentage of households having one elderly member is more in the city due to the emergence of the nuclear families and erosion of joint family system. With respect to socio-economic status, those elderly who are the heads of the family are lower in percentages than those in the other age groups. Also, male elderly as head of the family are greater in percentage than female elderly. Elderly in the category of currently married records the highest percentage followed by widowed, never married and lastly, separated or divorced. Male elderly outnumber the female elderly as currently married, while female elderly outnumbers the male elderly in the category of widowed. In terms of living status, the percentage of elderly who are living alone is highest in Kolkata and the reason for staying alone as no support from children also happens to be highest in this city. The literacy rate and higher level of education is higher among the male than female elderly. Higher percentages of female elderly have been found to be with disability. Disability in movement and multiple disabilities have been found to be more common among the elderly population in Kolkata. Percentages of male literate pensioners are highest than other categories. Also, in terms of levels of education male elderly who are graduate and above other than technical degree are the highest receivers of pension. Also, in terms of working status, elderly as non-workers are higher in percentages with the population of elderly females outnumbering the males. The old age dependency ratio in the city is increasing continuously and the ratio is higher among females than male. Thus, it can be stated that Kolkata is witnessing continuous and rapid ageing of its population. Increasing dependency ratio is likely to create pressure on the working population, available civic, social and health amenities. This requires intervention in the form of planning, formulation and implementation of laws, policies, programs and measures to safeguard and improve the conditions of the elderly in Kolkata.

Keywords: demographic, elderly, population, socio-economic

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Authors: M. Sakthivel, A. Devaki, D. Balasubramanyam, P. Kumarasamy, A. Raja, R. Anilkumar, H. Gopi

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The New Zealand White breed of rabbit is one of the most commonly used, well adapted exotic breeds in India. Earlier studies were limited only to analyze the environmental factors affecting the growth and reproductive performance. In the present study, the population of the New Zealand White rabbits in a closed herd was evaluated for its genetic structure. Data on pedigree information (n=2508) for 18 years (1995-2012) were utilized for the study. Pedigree analysis and the estimates of population genetic parameters based on gene origin probabilities were performed using the software program ENDOG (version 4.8). The analysis revealed that the mean values of generation interval, coefficients of inbreeding and equivalent inbreeding were 1.489 years, 13.233 percent and 17.585 percent, respectively. The proportion of population inbred was 100 percent. The estimated mean values of average relatedness and the individual increase in inbreeding were 22.727 and 3.004 percent, respectively. The percent increase in inbreeding over generations was 1.94, 3.06 and 3.98 estimated through maximum generations, equivalent generations, and complete generations, respectively. The number of ancestors contributing the most of 50% genes (fₐ₅₀) to the gene pool of reference population was 4 which might have led to the reduction in genetic variability and increased amount of inbreeding. The extent of genetic bottleneck assessed by calculating the effective number of founders (fₑ) and the effective number of ancestors (fₐ), as expressed by the fₑ/fₐ ratio was 1.1 which is indicative of the absence of stringent bottlenecks. Up to 5th generation, 71.29 percent pedigree was complete reflecting the well-maintained pedigree records. The maximum known generations were 15 with an average of 7.9 and the average equivalent generations traced were 5.6 indicating of a fairly good depth in pedigree. The realized effective population size was 14.93 which is very critical, and with the increasing trend of inbreeding, the situation has been assessed to be worse in future. The proportion of animals with the genetic conservation index (GCI) greater than 9 was 39.10 percent which can be used as a scale to use such animals with higher GCI to maintain balanced contribution from the founders. From the study, it was evident that the herd was completely inbred with very high inbreeding coefficient and the effective population size was critical. Recommendations were made to reduce the probability of deleterious effects of inbreeding and to improve the genetic variability in the herd. The present study can help in carrying out similar studies to meet the demand for animal protein in developing countries.

Keywords: effective population size, genetic structure, pedigree analysis, rabbit genetics

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Authors: I. Hua Chu, Hsiang-Chi Yu, Hsuan Su

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Purpose: To examine the associations between self-determined motivation and physical activity in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) in a longitudinal study. Methods: Patients with CHD were recruited for this study. Their motivations for exercise were measured by the Behavioral Regulation in Exercise Questionnaire-2 (BREQ-2). Physical activity was assessed using the 7-day physical activity recall questionnaire. Duration and energy expenditure of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were used in data analysis. All outcome measures were assessed at baseline and 12 months follow up. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis. Results: The results of the 45 participants (mean age 60.24 yr; 90.2% male) revealed that there were significant negative correlations between amotivation at baseline and duration (r=-.295, p=.049) and energy expenditure (r=-.300, p=.045) of MVPA at 12 months. In contrast, there were significant positive correlations between calculated relative autonomy index (RAI) at baseline and duration (r=.377, p=.011) and energy expenditure (r=.382, p=.010) of MVPA at 12 months. There was no significant correlation between other subscales of the BREQ-2 and duration or energy expenditure of MVPA. Regression analyses revealed that RAI was a significant predictor of duration (p=.011) and energy expenditure (p=.010) of MVPA at 12 months follow-up. Conclusions: These results suggest that the relative degree of self-determined motivation could predict long-term MVPA behaviors in CHD patients. Physical activity interventions are recommended to target enhancing one’s identified and intrinsic motivation to increase the likelihood of physical activity participation in this population.

Keywords: self-determined motivation, physical activity, coronary heart disease, relative autonomy index (RAI)

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Authors: Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti, Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi, Mishelle Doorasamy

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This study offers an empirical investigation into some selected macroeconomic drivers of the monetary policy rate in member countries of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), considering both internal and external variables. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to carry out the investigation between monetary policy and some macroeconomic variables in both the long-run and short-run relationship. The results suggest that the drivers of the policy rate in this zone, in the long run, include, among others, global oil price, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product, while in the short run, federal fund rate, trade openness, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product are core determinants of the policy rate. Therefore, in order to ensure long-run stability in the policy rate among the members’ states, these drivers should be given closer consideration so that the trajectory for effective structure can be designed and fused into the economic structure and policy frameworks accordingly.

Keywords: monetary policy rate, macroeconomic variables, WAMZ, ARDL

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Authors: Kye Gilder, Kevin Shan, Amy Halseth, Steve Smith

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This study assessed the effect of prolonged-release naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB) on cardiovascular (CV) events in overweight/obese participants at elevated CV risk. Participants must lose ≥2% body weight at 16 wks, without a sustained increase in blood pressure, to continue drug. Only serious adverse events (SAE) and adverse events leading to discontinuation of study drug (AELDSD) were collected. The study was terminated early after second interim analysis with 50% of all CV events. Data on CV endpoints has been published. Current analyses focused on AEs in participants on antidepressants at baseline, as these individuals were excluded from Phase 3 trials. Intent-to-treat (ITT) population (placebo [PBO] N=4450, NB N=4455) was 54.5% female, 83.5% white, mean age of 61 yrs, mean BMI 37.3 kg/m2, 22.8% with a history of depression, 23.1% on antidepressants, including 15.4% on an SSRI. SAEs in participants receiving antidepressants was similar between NB (10.7%) and PBO (9.9%) and also similar to overall population (9.5% NB, 8.1% PBO). SAEs in those on SSRIs were similar, 10.1% NB and PBO 9.4%. For those on SSRIs or other antidepressants, AELDSDs were similar to overall population and were primarily GI disorders. Obesity increases the risk of developing depression. For participants taking NB and antidepressants, including SSRIs, there is a similar AE profile as the overall population and data revealed no evidence of an additional health risk with combined use.

Keywords: antidepressant, Contrave, Mysimba, obesity, pharmacotherapy

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Authors: Preetinder Kaur Randhawa

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The rural areas can be differentiated from urban areas in terms of their economic activities as rural areas are primarily involved in agricultural sector and provide natural resources whereas, urban areas are primarily involved in infrastructure sector and provide manufacturing services. Census of India defines a Census Town as an area which satisfies the following three criteria i.e. population exceeds 5000, at least 75 percent of male population engaged in non-agricultural sector and minimum population density of 400 persons per square kilometers. Urban areas can be attributed to the improvement of transport facilities, the massive decline in agricultural, especially male workers and workers shift to non-agricultural activities. This study examines the pattern, process of rural areas transformed into urban areas/ census town. The study has analyzed the various factors which are responsible for land transformation as well as the socio-economic transformation of the village population. Nilpur (CT) which belongs to Rajpura Tehsil in Patiala district, Punjab has been selected for the present study. The methodology adopted includes qualitative and quantitative research design, methods based on secondary data. Secondary data has been collected from unpublished revenue record office of Rajpura Tehsil and Primary Census Abstract of Patiala district, Census of India 2011. The results have showed that rate of transformation of a village to census town in Rajpura Tehsil has been one of highest among other villages. The census town has evolved through the evolutionary process of human settlement which grows in size, population and physical development. There must be a complete economic transformation and attainment of high level of technological development. Urban design and construction of buildings and infrastructure can be carried out better and faster and can be used to aid human habitation with the enhancement of quality of life. The study has concluded that in the selected area i.e Nilpur (CT) literacy rate has increased to 72.1 percent in year 2011 from 67.6 percent in year 2001. Similarly non-agricultural work force has increased to 95.2 percent in year 2011 from 81.1 percent in year 2001. It is very much clear that the increased literacy rate has put a positive impact on the involvement of non-agricultural workers have enhanced. The study has concluded that rural-urban linkages are important tools for understanding complexities of people livelihood and their strategies which involve mobility migration and the diversification of income sources and occupations.

Keywords: Census Town, India, Nilpur, Punjab

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Authors: V. S. Binu, Amitha Puranik, Sintomon Mathew, Sebin Thomas

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Globally, women are more vulnerable to various forms of crimes than males. The crimes that are directed specifically towards women are classified as crime against women. Crime against women in India is observed to increase year after year and according to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) report, in 2014 there was an increase of 9.2% cases of crime against women compared to the previous year. The violence in a population depends on socio-demographic factors, unemployment, poverty, number of police officials etc. There are very few studies that explored to identify hotspots of various types of crime against women in India. Hotspots are geographical regions where the number of observed cases is more than the expected number for that region. It is important to identify the hotspots of crime against women in India in order to control and prevent violence against women in that region. The goal of this study is to identify the hotspots of crime against women in India using spatial data analysis techniques. For the present study, we used the district level data of various types of crime against women in India in the year 2011 published by NCRB and the 2011 Census population in each of these districts. The study used spatial scan statistic to identify the hotspots using SaTScan software.

Keywords: crime, hotspots, India, Satscan, Women

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Authors: Xiaoqian Cheng, Jon Kleppe, Ole Torsaeter

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One objective of this work is to analyze the effects of surfactant properties (viscosity, concentration, and adsorption) on surfactant enhanced oil recovery at laboratory scale. The other objective is to obtain the functional relationships between surfactant properties and the ultimate oil recovery and oil recovery rate. A core is cut into two parts from the middle to imitate the matrix with a horizontal fracture. An injector and a producer are at the left and right sides of the fracture separately. The middle slice of the core is used as the model in this paper, whose size is 4cm x 0.1cm x 4.1cm, and the space of the fracture in the middle is 0.1 cm. The original properties of matrix, brine, oil in the base case are from Ekofisk Field. The properties of surfactant are from literature. Eclipse is used as the simulator. The results are followings: 1) The viscosity of surfactant solution has a positive linear relationship with surfactant oil recovery time. And the relationship between viscosity and oil production rate is an inverse function. The viscosity of surfactant solution has no obvious effect on ultimate oil recovery. Since most of the surfactant has no big effect on viscosity of brine, the viscosity of surfactant solution is not a key parameter of surfactant screening for surfactant flooding in fractured reservoirs. 2) The increase of surfactant concentration results a decrease of oil recovery rate and an increase of ultimate oil recovery. However, there are no functions could describe the relationships. Study on economy should be conducted because of the price of surfactant and oil. 3) In the study of surfactant adsorption, assume that the matrix wettability is changed to water-wet when the surfactant adsorption is to the maximum at all cases. And the ratio of surfactant adsorption and surfactant concentration (Cads/Csurf) is used to estimate the functional relationship. The results show that the relationship between ultimate oil recovery and Cads/Csurf is a logarithmic function. The oil production rate has a positive linear relationship with exp(Cads/Csurf). The work here could be used as a reference for the surfactant screening of surfactant enhanced oil recovery from fractured reservoirs. And the functional relationships between surfactant properties and the oil recovery rate and ultimate oil recovery help to improve upscaling methods.

Keywords: fractured reservoirs, surfactant adsorption, surfactant concentration, surfactant EOR, surfactant viscosity

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