Search results for: traffic monitoring
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4116

Search results for: traffic monitoring

1026 Using GIS and AHP Model to Explore the Parking Problem in Khomeinishahr

Authors: Davood Vatankhah, Reza Mokhtari Malekabadi, Mohsen Saghaei

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Function of urban transportation systems depends on the existence of the required infrastructures, appropriate placement of different components, and the cooperation of these components with each other. Establishing various neighboring parking spaces in city neighborhood in order to prevent long-term and inappropriate parking of cars in the allies is one of the most effective operations in reducing the crowding and density of the neighborhoods. Every place with a certain application attracts a number of daily travels which happen throughout the city. A large percentage of the people visiting these places go to these travels by their own cars; therefore, they need a space to park their cars. The amount of this need depends on the usage function and travel demand of the place. The study aims at investigating the spatial distribution of the public parking spaces, determining the effective factors in locating, and their combination in GIS environment in Khomeinishahr of Isfahan city. Ultimately, the study intends to create an appropriate pattern for locating parking spaces, determining the request for parking spaces of the traffic areas, choosing the proper places for providing the required public parking spaces, and also proposing new spots in order to promote quality and quantity aspects of the city in terms of enjoying public parking spaces. Regarding the method, the study is based on applied purpose and regarding nature, it is analytic-descriptive. The population of the study includes people of the center of Khomeinishahr which is located on Northwest of Isfahan having about 5000 hectares of geographic area and the population of 241318 people are in the center of Komeinishahr. In order to determine the sample size, Cochran formula was used and according to the population of 26483 people of the studied area, 231 questionnaires were used. Data analysis was carried out by usage of SPSS software and after estimating the required space for parking spaces, initially, the effective criteria in locating the public parking spaces are weighted by the usage of Analytic Hierarchical Process in the Arc GIS software. Then, appropriate places for establishing parking spaces were determined by fuzzy method of Order Weighted Average (OWA). The results indicated that locating of parking spaces in Khomeinishahr have not been carried out appropriately and per capita of the parking spaces is not desirable in relation to the population and request; therefore, in addition to the present parking lots, 1434 parking lots are needed in the area of the study for each day; therefore, there is not a logical proportion between parking request and the number of parking lots in Khomeinishahr.

Keywords: GIS, locating, parking, khomeinishahr

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1025 The Impact of Temporal Impairment on Quality of Experience (QoE) in Video Streaming: A No Reference (NR) Subjective and Objective Study

Authors: Muhammad Arslan Usman, Muhammad Rehan Usman, Soo Young Shin

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Live video streaming is one of the most widely used service among end users, yet it is a big challenge for the network operators in terms of quality. The only way to provide excellent Quality of Experience (QoE) to the end users is continuous monitoring of live video streaming. For this purpose, there are several objective algorithms available that monitor the quality of the video in a live stream. Subjective tests play a very important role in fine tuning the results of objective algorithms. As human perception is considered to be the most reliable source for assessing the quality of a video stream, subjective tests are conducted in order to develop more reliable objective algorithms. Temporal impairments in a live video stream can have a negative impact on the end users. In this paper we have conducted subjective evaluation tests on a set of video sequences containing temporal impairment known as frame freezing. Frame Freezing is considered as a transmission error as well as a hardware error which can result in loss of video frames on the reception side of a transmission system. In our subjective tests, we have performed tests on videos that contain a single freezing event and also for videos that contain multiple freezing events. We have recorded our subjective test results for all the videos in order to give a comparison on the available No Reference (NR) objective algorithms. Finally, we have shown the performance of no reference algorithms used for objective evaluation of videos and suggested the algorithm that works better. The outcome of this study shows the importance of QoE and its effect on human perception. The results for the subjective evaluation can serve the purpose for validating objective algorithms.

Keywords: objective evaluation, subjective evaluation, quality of experience (QoE), video quality assessment (VQA)

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1024 Corporate Governance Development in Mongolia: The Role of Professional Accountants

Authors: Ernest Nweke

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The work of Professional Accountants and Corporate governance are synonymous and cannot be divorced from each other. Organizations, profit and non-profit alike cannot implement sound corporate practices without inputs from Professional Accountants. In today’s dynamic corporate world, good corporate governance practice is a sine qua non. More so, following the corporate failures of the past decades like Enron and WorldCom, governments around the world, including Mongolia are becoming more proactive in ensuring sound corporate governance mechanisms. In the past fifteen years, the Mongolian government has taken several measures to establish and strengthen internal corporate governance structures in firms. This paper highlights the role of professional accountants and auditors play in ensuring that good corporate governance mechanisms are entrenched in listed companies in Mongolia. Both primary and secondary data are utilized in this research. In collection of primary data, Delphi method was used, securing responses from only knowledgeable senior employees, top managers, and some CEOs. Using this method, a total of 107 top-level company employees and executives randomly selected from 22 companies were surveyed; maximum of 5 and minimum of 4 from each company. These companies cut across several sectors. It was concluded that Professional Accountants play key roles in setting and maintaining firm governance. They do this by ensuring full compliance with all the requirements of good and sound corporate governance, establishing reporting, monitoring and evaluating standards, assisting in the setting up of proper controls, efficient and effective audit systems, sound fraud risk management and putting in place an overall vision for the enterprise. Companies with effective corporate governance mechanisms are usually strong and fraud-resilient. It was also discovered that companies with big 4 audit firms tend to have better governance structures in Mongolia.

Keywords: accountants, corporate disclosure, corporate failure, corporate governance

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1023 The Covid Pandemic at a Level III Trauma Center: Challenges in the Management of the Spine Trauma.

Authors: Joana PaScoa Pinheiro, David Goncalves Ferreira, Filipe Ramos, Joaquim Soares Do Brito, Samuel Martins, Marco Sarmento

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Introduction: The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic was identified in January 2020 in China, in the city of Wuhan. The increase in the number of cases over the following months was responsible for the restructuring of hospitals and departments in order to accommodate admissions related to COVID-19. Essential services, such as trauma, had to readapt to maintain their functionality and thus guarantee quick and safe access in case of an emergency. Objectives: This study describes the impact of COVID-19 on a Level III Trauma Center and particularly on the clinical management of hospitalized patients with spine injuries. Study Design & Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study whose results were obtained through the medical records of patients with spine injuries who underwent surgical intervention in the years 2019 and 2020 (period from March 1st to December 31st). A comparison between the two groups was made. In the study patients with injuries in the context of trauma were included who underwent surgery in the periods previously described. Patients hospitalized with a spine injury in a non-traumatic context and/or were not surgically treated were excluded. Results: In total, 137 patients underwent trauma spine surgery of which 71 in 2019 (51.8%) were without significant differences in intergroup comparisons. The most frequent injury mechanism in 2019 was motor vehicle crash (47.9%) compared to 2020 which was of a person falling from a height between 2-4 meters (37.9%). Cervical trauma was reported to be the most frequent spine injury in both years. There was a significant decrease in the need for intensive care in 2020, 51.4% vs 30.3%, p = .015 and the number of complications was also lower in 2020 (1.35% vs 0.98%), including the number of deaths, being the difference marginally significant. There were no significant differences regarding time for presentation to surgery or in the total days of hospitalization. Conclusions: The restructuring made in the trauma unit at a Level III Trauma Center in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic was effective, with no significant differences between the years of 2019 vs 2020 when compared with the time for presentation to surgery or the number of days of hospitalization. It was also found that lockdown rules in 2020 were probably responsible for the decrease in the number of road traffic accidents, which justifies a significant decrease in the need for intensive care as well as in the number of complications in patients hospitalized in the context of spine trauma.

Keywords: trauma, spine, impact, covid-19

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1022 Geographical Location and the Global Airline Industry: A Delphi Study into the Future of Home Base Requirements

Authors: Darren J. Ellis

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This paper investigates the key industry-level consequences and future prospects for the global airline industry of the requirement for airlines to have a home base. This industry context results in geographical location playing a central role in determining how and where international airlines can operate, and the extent to which their international networks can develop. Data from a five stage mixed-methods Delphi study into the global airline industry’s likely future trajectory conducted in 2013 and 2014 are utilized to better understand the likelihood and consequences of home base requirements changing in future. Expert views and forecasts were collected to gauge core industry trends over a ten year timeframe. Attempts to change or bypass this industry requirement have not been successful to date outside of the European single air market. Europe remains the only prominent exception to the general rule in this regard. Most of the industry is founded on air space sovereignty, the nationality rule, and the bilateral system of traffic rights. Europe’s exceptionalism has seen it evolve into a single air market with characteristics similar to a nation-state, rather than to become a force for wider industry change and regional multilateralism. Europe has indeed become a key actor in global aviation, but Europe seems to now be part of the industry’s status quo, not a vehicle for substantially wider multilateralism around the world. The findings from this research indicate that the bilateral system is not viewed by most study experts as disappearing or substantially weakening in the foreseeable future. However, regional multilateralism was also viewed as progressively taking hold in the industry in future, demonstrating that for most industry experts the two are not seen as mutually exclusive but rather as being able to co-exist with each other. This reality ensures that geographical location will continue to play an important role in the global airline industry in future and that, home base requirements will not disappear any time soon either. Even moves in some aviation jurisdictions to dilute nationality requirements for airlines, and instead replace ownership and control restrictions with principal place of business tests, do not ultimately free airlines from their home base. Likewise, an expansion of what constitutes home base to include a regional grouping of countries – again, a currently uncommon reality in global aviation – does not fundamentally weaken the continued relevance of geographical location to the global industry’s future growth and development realities and prospects.

Keywords: airline industry, air space sovereignty, geographical location, home base

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1021 Heavy Metal Contents in Vegetable Oils of Kazakhstan Origin and Life Risk Assessment

Authors: A. E. Mukhametov, M. T. Yerbulekova, D. R. Dautkanova, G. A. Tuyakova, G. Aitkhozhayeva

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The accumulation of heavy metals in food is a constant problem in many parts of the world. Vegetable oils are widely used, both for cooking and for processing in the food industry, meeting the main dietary requirements. One of the main chemical pollutants, heavy metals, is usually found in vegetable oils. These chemical pollutants are carcinogenic, teratogenic and immunotoxic, harmful to consumption and have a negative effect on human health even in trace amounts. Residues of these substances can easily accumulate in vegetable oil during cultivation, processing and storage. In this article, the content of the concentration of heavy metal ions in vegetable oils of Kazakhstan production is studied: sunflower, rapeseed, safflower and linseed oil. Heavy metals: arsenic, cadmium, lead and nickel, were determined in three repetitions by the method of flame atomic absorption. Analysis of vegetable oil samples revealed that the largest lead contamination (Pb) was determined to be 0.065 mg/kg in linseed oil. The content of cadmium (Cd) in the largest amount of 0.009 mg/kg was found in safflower oil. Arsenic (As) content was determined in rapeseed and safflower oils at 0.003 mg/kg, and arsenic (As) was not detected in linseed and sunflower oil. The nickel (Ni) content in the largest amount of 0.433 mg/kg was in linseed oil. The heavy metal contents in the test samples complied with the requirements of regulatory documents for vegetable oils. An assessment of the health risk of vegetable oils with a daily consumption of 36 g per day shows that all samples of vegetable oils produced in Kazakhstan are safe for consumption. But further monitoring is needed, since all these metals are toxic and their harmful effects become apparent only after several years of exposure.

Keywords: vegetable oil, sunflower oil, linseed oil, safflower oil, toxic metals, food safety, rape oil

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1020 Activity-Based Safety Assessment of Real Estate Projects in Western India

Authors: Patel Parul, Harsh Ganvit

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The construction industry is the second highest industry after agriculture provides employment in India. In developing countries like India, many construction projects are coming up to meet the demand. On the one hand, construction projects are increasing; on the other hand still, construction companies are struggling with many problems. One of the major problems is to ensure safe working conditions at the construction site. Due to a lack of safety awareness and ignorance of safety aspects, many fatal accidents are very common at the construction site in India. One of the key success factors for construction projects is “Accident-Free Construction Projects”. The construction projects can be divided into various categories like Infrastructure projects, industrial construction and real estate construction. Real estate projects are mainly comprised of commercial and residential projects. In the construction industry, private sectors play a huge role in urban and rural development and also contribute significantly to the growth of the nation. Infrastructure and Industrial projects are mainly executed by well-qualified construction contractors. For such projects, ensuring safety at construction projects is inevitable and probably one of the major clauses of contract documents as well. These projects are monitored from time to time by national agencies and researchers, too. However, Real estate projects are rarely monitored for safety aspects. No systematic contract system is followed for these projects. Safety is the most neglected aspect of these projects. In the current research projects, an attempt is made to carry out safety auditing for about 75 real estate projects. The objective of this work is to collect the activity-based safety survey of real estate projects in western India. The analysis of activity-based safety implementation for real estate projects is discussed in the present work. The activities are divided into three categories based on the data collected. The findings of this work will help local monitoring authorities to implement a safety management plan for real estate projects.

Keywords: construction safety, safety assessment, activity-based safety, real estate projects

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1019 Radon-222 Concentration and Potential Risk to Workers of Al-Jalamid Phosphate Mines, North Province, Saudi Arabia

Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

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Usually, phosphate deposits contain 238U and 232Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the 238U/232Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially 222Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (222Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m3. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m3 in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m3 in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon

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1018 The Promotion of a Risk Culture: a Descriptive Study of Ghanaian Banks

Authors: Gerhard Grebe, Johan Marx

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The aim of the study is to assess the state of operational risk management and the adoption of an appropriate risk culture in Ghanaian banks. The Bank of Ghana (BoG) joined the Basel Consultative Group (BCG) of the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision (BCBS) in 2021 and is proceeding with the implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework for banks. The BoG’s Directive about risk management encourages, inter alia, the creation of an appropriate risk culture by Ghanaian banks. However, it is not evident how the risk management staff of Ghanaian banks experience the risk culture and the implementation of operational risk management in the banks where they are employed. Ghana is a developing economy, and it is addressing challenges with its organisational culture. According to Transparency International, successive Ghanaian governments claim to be fighting corruption, but little success has been achieved so far. This points to a possible lack of accountability, transparency, and integrity in the environment in which Ghanaian banks operate and which could influence their risk culture negatively. Purposive sampling was used for the survey, and the questionnaire was completed byGhanaian bank personnel who specializesin operational risk management, risk governance, and compliance, bank supervision, risk analyses, as well as the implementation of the operational risk management requirements of the Basel regulatory frameworks. The respondents indicated that they are fostering a risk culture and implementing monitoring and reporting procedures; the three lines of defence (3LOD); compliance; internal auditing; disclosure of operational risk information; and receiving guidance from the bank supervisor in an attempt to improve their operational risk management practices. However, the respondents reported the following challenges with staff members who are not inside the risk management departments(in order of priority), namelydemonstrating a risk culture, training and development; communication; reporting and disclosure; roles and responsibilities; performance appraisal; and technological and environmental barriers. Recommendations to address these challenges are provided

Keywords: ghana, operational risk, risk culture, risk management

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1017 Blue Whale Body Condition from Photographs Taken over a 14-Year Period in the North East Pacific: Annual Variations and Connection to Measures of Ocean Productivity

Authors: Rachel Wachtendonk, John Calambokidis, Kiirsten Flynn

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Large marine mammals can serve as an indicator of the overall state of the environment due to their long lifespan and apex position in marine food webs. Reductions in prey, driven by changes in environmental conditions can have resounding impacts on the trophic system as a whole; this can manifest in reduced fat stores that are visible on large whales. Poor health can lead to reduced survivorship and fitness, both of which can be detrimental to a recovering population. A non-invasive technique was used for monitoring blue whale health and for seeing if it changes with ocean conditions. Digital photographs of blue whales taken in the NE Pacific by Cascadia Research and collaborators from 2005-2018 (n=3,545) were scored for overall body condition based on visible vertebrae and body shape on a scale of 0-3 where a score of 0 indicated best body condition and a score of 3 indicated poorest. The data was analyzed to determine if there were patterns in the health of whales across years and whether overall poor health was related to oceanographic conditions and predictors of prey abundance on the California coast. The year was a highly significant factor in body condition (Chi-Square, p<0.001). The proportion of whales showing poor body condition (scores 2 & 3) overall was 33% but by year varied widely from a low of 18% (2008) to a high of 55% (2015). The only two years where >50% of animals had poor body condition were 2015 and 2017 (no other year was above 45%). The 2015 maximum proportion of whales in poor body condition coincide with the marine heat wave that affected the NE Pacific 2014-16 and impacted other whale populations. This indicates that the scoring method was an effective way to evaluate blue whale health and how they respond to a changing ocean.

Keywords: blue whale, body condition, environmental variability, photo-identification

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1016 Exploration and Evaluation of the Effect of Multiple Countermeasures on Road Safety

Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Every day many people die or get disabled or injured on roads around the world, which necessitates more specific treatments for transportation safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) model is one of the comprehensive road safety models which accounting for many factors that affect road safety in a cost-effective way in low and middle income countries. In iRAP model road safety has been divided into five star ratings from 1 star (the lowest level) to 5 star (the highest level). These star ratings are based on star rating score which is calculated by iRAP methodology depending on road attributes, traffic volumes and operating speeds. The outcome of iRAP methodology are the treatments that can be used to improve road safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) numbers. These countermeasures can be used separately as a single countermeasure or mix as multiple countermeasures for a location. There is general agreement that the adequacy of a countermeasure is liable to consistent losses when it is utilized as a part of mix with different countermeasures. That is, accident diminishment appraisals of individual countermeasures cannot be easily added together. The iRAP model philosophy makes utilization of a multiple countermeasure adjustment factors to predict diminishments in the effectiveness of road safety countermeasures when more than one countermeasure is chosen. A multiple countermeasure correction factors are figured for every 100-meter segment and for every accident type. However, restrictions of this methodology incorporate a presumable over-estimation in the predicted crash reduction. This study aims to adjust this correction factor by developing new models to calculate the effect of using multiple countermeasures on the number of fatalities for a location or an entire road. Regression models have been used to establish relationships between crash frequencies and the factors that affect their rates. Multiple linear regression, negative binomial regression, and Poisson regression techniques were used to develop models that can address the effectiveness of using multiple countermeasures. Analyses are conducted using The R Project for Statistical Computing showed that a model developed by negative binomial regression technique could give more reliable results of the predicted number of fatalities after the implementation of road safety multiple countermeasures than the results from iRAP model. The results also showed that the negative binomial regression approach gives more precise results in comparison with multiple linear and Poisson regression techniques because of the overdispersion and standard error issues.

Keywords: international road assessment program, negative binomial, road multiple countermeasures, road safety

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1015 Synthesis of Nanoparticles and Thin Film of Cu₂ZnSnS₄ by Hydrothermal Method and Its Application as Congo Red Photocatalyst

Authors: Paula Salazar, Rodrigo Henríquez, Pablo Zerega

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The textile, food and pharmaceutical industries are expanding daily worldwide, and they are located within the most polluting industries due to the fact that wastewater is discharged into watercourses with high concentrations of dyes and traces of drugs. Many of these compounds are stable to light and biodegradation, being considered as emerging organic contaminants. Advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) emerge as an effective alternative for the removal and elimination of this type of contaminants. Heterogeneous photocatalysis has been extensively studied as it is an efficient, low-cost and durable method. As the main photocatalyst, TiO₂ has been used for the degradation of a large number of dyes and drugs. The disadvantage of TiO₂ is its absorption in the UV region of the solar spectrum. On the other hand, quaternary chalcogenides based on Cu₂SnZnX₄ (X = S, Se) are a possible alternative due to their narrow bandgap (ca. between 0.8 to 1.5 eV depending on the phase considered), low cost, an abundance of its constituent elements in the earth's crust and its low toxicity. The objective of this research was to synthesize Cu₂SnZnS₄ (CZTS) through of a low-cost hydrothermal method and evaluate it as a potential photo-catalyst in the photo-degradation process of Congo Red. The synthesis of the nanoparticle in suspension and film onto fluorine-doped tin oxide coated glass (FTO) was carried out using a mixture of: 2 mmol CuCl₂, 1 mmol ZnCl₂, 1 mmol SnCl₂ and 4 mmol CH4N₂S in a Teflon reactor at 180⁰C for 72 h. Characterization was performed through scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and UV VIS spectroscopy. Photo-degradation monitoring was carried out employing a UV VIS spectrophotometer. The results show that photodegradation of 55% of the dye can be obtained after 4h of exposure to polychromatic light, it should be noted that the Congo Red dye is being studied for the first time.

Keywords: CZTS, hydrothermal, photocatalysis, dye

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1014 Determination of Viscosity and Degree of Hydrogenation of Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers by Cavity Based Permittivity Measurement

Authors: I. Wiemann, N. Weiß, E. Schlücker, M. Wensing

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A very promising alternative to compression or cryogenics is the chemical storage of hydrogen by liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC). These carriers enable high energy density and allow, at the same time, efficient and safe storage under ambient conditions without leakage losses. Another benefit of this storage medium is the possibility of transporting it using already available infrastructure for the transport of fossil fuels. Efficient use of LOHC is related to precise process control, which requires a number of sensors in order to measure all relevant process parameters, for example, to measure the level of hydrogen loading of the carrier. The degree of loading is relevant for the energy content of the storage carrier and simultaneously represents the modification in the chemical structure of the carrier molecules. This variation can be detected in different physical properties like permittivity, viscosity, or density. E.g., each degree of loading corresponds to different viscosity values. Conventional measurements currently use invasive viscosity measurements or near-line measurements to obtain quantitative information. This study investigates permittivity changes resulting from changes in hydrogenation degree (chemical structure) and temperature. Based on calibration measurements, the degree of loading and temperature of LOHC can thus be determined by comparatively simple permittivity measurements in a cavity resonator. Subsequently, viscosity and density can be calculated. An experimental setup with a heating device and flow test bench was designed. By varying temperature in the range of 293,15 K -393,15 K and flow velocity up to 140 mm/s, corresponding changes in the resonation frequency were determined in the hundredths of the GHz range. This approach allows inline process monitoring of hydrogenation of the liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC).

Keywords: hydrogen loading, LOHC, measurement, permittivity, viscosity

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1013 The Safety Profile of Vilazodone: A Study on Post-Marketing Surveillance

Authors: Humraaz Kaja, Kofi Mensah, Frasia Oosthuizen

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Background and Aim: Vilazodone was approved in 2011 as an antidepressant to treat the major depressive disorder. As a relatively new drug, it is not clear if all adverse effects have been identified. The aim of this study was to review the adverse effects reported to the WHO Programme for International Drug Monitoring (PIDM) in order to add to the knowledge about the safety profile and adverse effects caused by vilazodone. Method: Data on adverse effects reported for vilazodone was obtained from the database VigiAccess managed by PIDM. Data was extracted from VigiAccess using Excel® and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The data collected was compared to the patient information leaflet (PIL) of Viibryd® and the FDA documents to determine adverse drug reactions reported post-marketing. Results: A total of 9708 adverse events had been recorded on VigiAccess, of which 6054 were not recorded on the PIL and the FDA approval document. Most of the reports were received from the Americas and were for adult women aged 45-64 years (24%, n=1059). The highest number of adverse events reported were for psychiatric events (19%; n=1889), followed by gastro-intestinal effects (18%; n=1839). Specific psychiatric disorders recorded included anxiety (316), depression (208), hallucination (168) and agitation (142). The systematic review confirmed several psychiatric adverse effects associated with the use of vilazodone. The findings of this study suggested that these common psychiatric adverse effects associated with the use of vilazodone were not known during the time of FDA approval of the drug and is not currently recorded in the patient information leaflet (PIL). Conclusions: In summary, this study found several adverse drug reactions not recorded in documents emanating from clinical trials pre-marketing. This highlights the importance of continued post-marketing surveillance of a drug, as well as the need for further studies on the psychiatric adverse events associated with vilazodone in order to improve the safety profile.

Keywords: adverse drug reactions, pharmacovigilance, post-marketing surveillance, vilazodone

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1012 Application of the Critical Decision Method for Monitoring and Improving Safety in the Construction Industry

Authors: Juan Carlos Rubio Romero, Francico Salguero Caparros, Virginia Herrera-Pérez

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No one is in the slightest doubt about the high levels of risk involved in work in the construction industry. They are even higher in structural construction work. The Critical Decision Method (CDM) is a semi-structured interview technique that uses cognitive tests to identify the different disturbances that workers have to deal with in their work activity. At present, the vision of safety focused on daily performance and things that go well for safety and health management is facing the new paradigm known as Resilience Engineering. The aim of this study has been to describe the variability in formwork labour on concrete structures in the construction industry and, from there, to find out the resilient attitude of workers to unexpected events that they have experienced during their working lives. For this purpose, a series of semi-structured interviews were carried out with construction employees with extensive experience in formwork labour in Spain by applying the Critical Decision Method. This work has been the first application of the Critical Decision Method in the field of construction and, more specifically, in the execution of structures. The results obtained show that situations categorised as unthought-of are identified to a greater extent than potentially unexpected situations. The identification during these interviews of both expected and unexpected events provides insight into the critical decisions made and actions taken to improve resilience in daily practice in this construction work. From this study, it is clear that it is essential to gain more knowledge about the nature of the human cognitive process in work situations within complex socio-technical systems such as construction sites. This could lead to a more effective design of workplaces in the search for improved human performance.

Keywords: resilience engineering, construction industry, unthought-of situations, critical decision method

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1011 Predictors of Post-marketing Regulatory Actions Concerning Hepatotoxicity

Authors: Salwa M. Almomen, Mona A. Almaghrabi, Saja M. Alhabardi, Adel A. Alrwisan

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Background: Hepatotoxicity is a major reason for medication withdrawal from the markets. Unfortunately, serious adverse hepatic effects can occur after marketing with limited indicators during clinical development. Therefore, finding possible predictors for hepatotoxicity might guide the monitoring program of various stakeholders. Methods: We examined the clinical review documents for drugs approved in the US from 2011 to 2016 to evaluate their hepatic safety profile. Predictors: we assessed whether these medications meet Hy’s Law with hepatotoxicity grade ≥ 3, labeled hepatic adverse effects at approval, or accelerated approval status. Outcome: post-marketing regulatory action related to hepatotoxicity, including product withdrawal or updates to warning, precaution, or adverse effects sections. Statistical analysis: drugs were included in the analysis from the time of approval until the end of 2019 or the first post-marketing regulatory action related to hepatotoxicity, whichever occurred first. The hazard ratio (HR) was estimated using Cox-regression analysis. Results: We included 192 medications in the study. We classified 48 drugs as having grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicities, 43 had accelerated approval status, and 74 had labeled information about hepatotoxicity prior to marketing. The adjusted HRs for post-marketing regulatory action for products with grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicity was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17-2.23), 0.92 (95%CI, 0.29-2.93) for a drug approved via accelerated approval program, and was 0.91 (95%CI, 0.33-2.56) for drugs with labeled hepatotoxicity information at approval time. Conclusion: This study does not provide conclusive evidence on the association between post-marketing regulatory action and grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicity, accelerated approval status, or availability of labeled information at approval due to sampling size and channeling bias.

Keywords: accelerated approvals, hepatic adverse effects, drug-induced liver injury, hepatotoxicity predictors, post-marketing withdrawal

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1010 Familiarity with Flood and Engineering Solutions to Control It

Authors: Hamid Fallah

Abstract:

Undoubtedly, flood is known as a natural disaster, and in practice, flood is considered the most terrible natural disaster in the world both in terms of loss of life and financial losses. From 1988 to 1997, about 390,000 people were killed by natural disasters in the world, 58% of which were related to floods, 26% due to earthquakes, and 16% due to storms and other disasters. The total damages in these 10 years were about 700 billion dollars, which were 33, 29, 28% related to floods, storms and earthquakes, respectively. In this regard, the worrisome point has been the increasing trend of flood deaths and damages in the world in recent decades. The increase in population and assets in flood plains, changes in hydro systems and the destructive effects of human activities have been the main reasons for this increase. During rain and snow, some of the water is absorbed by the soil and plants. A percentage evaporates and the rest flows and is called runoff. Floods occur when the soil and plants cannot absorb the rainfall, and as a result, the natural river channel does not have the capacity to pass the generated runoff. On average, almost 30% of precipitation is converted into runoff, which increases with snow melting. Floods that occur differently create an area called flood plain around the river. River floods are often caused by heavy rains, which in some cases are accompanied by snow melt. A flood that flows in a river without warning or with little warning is called a flash flood. The casualties of these rapid floods that occur in small watersheds are generally more than the casualties of large river floods. Coastal areas are also subject to flooding caused by waves caused by strong storms on the surface of the oceans or waves caused by underground earthquakes. Floods not only cause damage to property and endanger the lives of humans and animals, but also leave other effects. Runoff caused by heavy rains causes soil erosion in the upstream and sedimentation problems in the downstream. The habitats of fish and other animals are often destroyed by floods. The high speed of the current increases the damage. Long-term floods stop traffic and prevent drainage and economic use of land. The supports of bridges, river banks, sewage outlets and other structures are damaged, and there is a disruption in shipping and hydropower generation. The economic losses of floods in the world are estimated at tens of billions of dollars annually.

Keywords: flood, hydrological engineering, gis, dam, small hydropower, suitablity

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1009 Study of Natural Radioactive and Radiation Hazard Index of Soil from Sembrong Catchment Area, Johor, Malaysia

Authors: M. I. A. Adziz, J. Sharib Sarip, M. T. Ishak, D. N. A. Tugi

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Radiation exposure to humans and the environment is caused by natural radioactive material sources. Given that exposure to people and communities can occur through several pathways, it is necessary to pay attention to the increase in naturally radioactive material, particularly in the soil. Continuous research and monitoring on the distribution and determination of these natural radionuclides' activity as a guide and reference are beneficial, especially in an accidental exposure. Surface soil/sediment samples from several locations identified around the Sembrong catchment area were taken for the study. After 30 days of secular equilibrium with their daughters, the activity concentrations of the naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) members, i.e. ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra, ²³⁸U, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K, were measured using high purity germanium (HPGe) gamma spectrometer. The results obtained showed that the radioactivity concentration of ²³⁸U ranged between 17.13 - 30.13 Bq/kg, ²³²Th ranged between 22.90 - 40.05 Bq/kg, ²²⁶Ra ranged between 19.19 - 32.10 Bq/kg, ²²⁸Ra ranged between 21.08 - 39.11 Bq/kg and ⁴⁰K ranged between 9.22 - 51.07 Bq/kg with average values of 20.98 Bq/kg, 27.39 Bq/kg, 23.55 Bq/kg, 26.93 Bq/kg and 23.55 Bq/kg respectively. The values obtained from this study were low or equivalent to previously reported in previous studies. It was also found that the mean/mean values obtained for the four parameters of the Radiation Hazard Index, namely radium equivalent activity (Raeq), external dose rate (D), annual effective dose and external hazard index (Hₑₓ), were 65.40 Bq/kg, 29.33 nGy/h, 19.18 ¹⁰⁻⁶Sv and 0.19 respectively. These obtained values are low compared to the world average values and the values of globally applied standards. Comparison with previous studies (dry season) also found that the values for all four parameters were low and equivalent. This indicates the level of radiation hazard in the area around the study is safe for the public.

Keywords: catchment area, gamma spectrometry, naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), soil

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1008 Design and Development of On-Line, On-Site, In-Situ Induction Motor Performance Analyser

Authors: G. S. Ayyappan, Srinivas Kota, Jaffer R. C. Sheriff, C. Prakash Chandra Joshua

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In the present scenario of energy crises, energy conservation in the electrical machines is very important in the industries. In order to conserve energy, one needs to monitor the performance of an induction motor on-site and in-situ. The instruments available for this purpose are very meager and very expensive. This paper deals with the design and development of induction motor performance analyser on-line, on-site, and in-situ. The system measures only few electrical input parameters like input voltage, line current, power factor, frequency, powers, and motor shaft speed. These measured data are coupled to name plate details and compute the operating efficiency of induction motor. This system employs the method of computing motor losses with the help of equivalent circuit parameters. The equivalent circuit parameters of the concerned motor are estimated using the developed algorithm at any load conditions and stored in the system memory. The developed instrument is a reliable, accurate, compact, rugged, and cost-effective one. This portable instrument could be used as a handy tool to study the performance of both slip ring and cage induction motors. During the analysis, the data can be stored in SD Memory card and one can perform various analyses like load vs. efficiency, torque vs. speed characteristics, etc. With the help of the developed instrument, one can operate the motor around its Best Operating Point (BOP). Continuous monitoring of the motor efficiency could lead to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of motors. LCA helps in taking decisions on motor replacement or retaining or refurbishment.

Keywords: energy conservation, equivalent circuit parameters, induction motor efficiency, life cycle assessment, motor performance analysis

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1007 Deltamethrin-Induces Oxidative Stress to the Freshwater Ciliate Model: Paramecium tetraurelia

Authors: Amamra Ryma, Djebar Mohamed Reda, Moumeni Ouissem, Otmani Hadjer, Berrebbah Houria

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The problem of environmental contamination by the excessive use of organics cannot be neglected. Extensive application is usually companied with serious problems and health risk. It is established that many chemicals, in common use, can produce some toxic effects on biological systems through their mode of action or by production of free radicals that damage all cell compounds. Deltamethrin, a widely used type II pyrethroid pesticide, is one of the most common contaminants in freshwater aquatic system. In this study, we investigate the effects of deltamethrin exposure on the induction of oxidative stress to the freshwater ciliate Paramecium tetraurelia. After the treatment of paramecium cells with increasing concentrations of insecticide, we followed up the growth kinetics, generation time and the percentage response. Also, we studied the variation in biomarkers of stress such as: GSH content, GST, GPX and CAT activities. Our results showed a significant decrease in the proliferation of cells correlated by the decrease in generation number and the increase in generation time. Also, we noted an inhibition in the percentage response. The monitoring of biomarkers revealed depletion in GSH content in a proportional and dose dependent manner accompanied by an increase in the GST activity. In parallel, a strong induction in the CAT and GPX activities was noted specially for the highest dose. In summary, under the current experimental conditions, deltamethrin is highly toxic to the freshwater ciliate Paramecium tetraurelia. Exposure to low concentrations showed significant adverse on growth accompanied with the induction of oxidative damage supported by the decrease in GSH content and the intensification of the antioxidant enzymes.

Keywords: deltamethrin, Paramecium tetraurelia, growth, oxidative stress, biomarkers, antioxidant

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1006 An Unbiased Profiling of Immune Repertoire via Sequencing and Analyzing T-Cell Receptor Genes

Authors: Yi-Lin Chen, Sheng-Jou Hung, Tsunglin Liu

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Adaptive immune system recognizes a wide range of antigens via expressing a large number of structurally distinct T cell and B cell receptor genes. The distinct receptor genes arise from complex rearrangements called V(D)J recombination, and constitute the immune repertoire. A common method of profiling immune repertoire is via amplifying recombined receptor genes using multiple primers and high-throughput sequencing. This multiplex-PCR approach is efficient; however, the resulting repertoire can be distorted because of primer bias. To eliminate primer bias, 5’ RACE is an alternative amplification approach. However, the application of RACE approach is limited by its low efficiency (i.e., the majority of data are non-regular receptor sequences, e.g., containing intronic segments) and lack of the convenient tool for analysis. We propose a computational tool that can correctly identify non-regular receptor sequences in RACE data via aligning receptor sequences against the whole gene instead of only the exon regions as done in all other tools. Using our tool, the remaining regular data allow for an accurate profiling of immune repertoire. In addition, a RACE approach is improved to yield a higher fraction of regular T-cell receptor sequences. Finally, we quantify the degree of primer bias of a multiplex-PCR approach via comparing it to the RACE approach. The results reveal significant differences in frequency of VJ combination by the two approaches. Together, we provide a new experimental and computation pipeline for an unbiased profiling of immune repertoire. As immune repertoire profiling has many applications, e.g., tracing bacterial and viral infection, detection of T cell lymphoma and minimal residual disease, monitoring cancer immunotherapy, etc., our work should benefit scientists who are interested in the applications.

Keywords: immune repertoire, T-cell receptor, 5' RACE, high-throughput sequencing, sequence alignment

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1005 I Post Therefore I Am! Construction of Gendered Identities in Facebook Communication of Pakistani Male and Female Users

Authors: Rauha Salam

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In Pakistan, over the past decade, the notion of what counts as a true ‘masculine and feminine’ behaviour has become more complicated with the inspection of social media. Given its strong religious and socio-cultural norms, patriarchal values are entrenched in the local and cultural traditions of the Pakistani society and regulate the social value of gender. However, the increasing use of internet among Pakistani men and women, especially in the form of social media uses by the youth, is increasingly becoming disruptive and challenging to the strict modes of behavioural monitoring and control both at familial and state level. Facebook, being the prime social media communication platform in Pakistan, provide its users a relatively ‘safe’ place to embrace how they want to be perceived by their audience. Moreover, the availability of an array of semiotic resources (e.g. the videos, audios, visuals and gifs) on Facebook makes it possible for the users to create a virtual identity that allows them to describe themselves in detail. By making use of Multimodal Discourse Analysis, I aimed to investigate how men and women in Pakistan construct their gendered identities multimodally (visually and linguistically) through their Facebook posts and how these semiotic modes are interconnected to communicate specific meanings. In case of the female data, the analysis showed an ambivalence as females were found to be conforming to the existing socio-cultural norms of the society and they were also employing social media platforms to deviate from traditional gendered patterns and to voice their opinions simultaneously. Similarly, the male data highlighted the reproduction of the prevalent cultural models of masculinity. However, there were instances in the data that showed a digression from the standard norms and there is a (re)negotiation of the traditional patriarchal representations.

Keywords: Facebook, Gendered Identities, Multimodal Discourse Analysis, Pakistan

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1004 An Evaluation of Rational Approach to Management by Objectives in Construction Contracting Organisation

Authors: Zakir H. Shaik, Punam L. Vartak

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Management By Objectives (MBO) is a management technique in which objectives of an organisation are conveyed to the employees to establish the individual goals. These objectives and goals are then monitored and assessed jointly by management and the employee time to time. This tool can be used for planning, monitoring as well as for performance appraisal. The success of an organisation is largely dependent on its’s Vision. Thus, it is of paramount importance to achieve the realm of vision through a mission which is well crafted within the organisation to address the objectives. The success of the mission depends upon how realistic and action oriented philosophical approach, an organisation caters to; and how the individual goals are set to track and meet the objectives. Thus, focused and passionate efforts of the team, assigned for the mission, are an absolute obligation for achieving the vision of any organisation. Any construction site is generally a controlled disorder having huge investments, resources and logistics involved. The Construction progression is time-consuming with many isolated as well as interconnected activities. Traditional MBO approach can be unsuccessful if planning and control is non-realistic and inflexible. Moreover, the Construction Industry is far behind understanding these concepts. It is important to address the employee engagement in defining and creating awareness to achieve the targets. Besides, current economic environment and competitive world demands refined management tools to achieve profit, growth and survival of the business. Therefore, the necessity of rational MBO becomes vital part towards the success of an organisation. This paper details about the philosophical assumptions to develop the grounded theory in lieu of achieving objectives through RATIONAL MBO approach in Construction Contracting Organisations. The goals and objectives of the Construction Contracting Organisations can be achieved efficiently by adopting this RATIONAL MBO approach, as those are based on realistic, logical and balanced assumptions.

Keywords: growth, leadership, management by objectives, Management By Objectives (MBO), profit, rational

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1003 The Use of Geographic Information System in Spatial Location of Waste Collection Points and the Attendant Impacts in Bida Urban Centre, Nigeria

Authors: Daramola Japheth, Tabiti S. Tabiti, Daramola Elizabeth Lara, Hussaini Yusuf Atulukwu

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Bida urban centre is faced with solid waste management problems which are evident in the processes of waste generation, onsite storage, collection, transfer and transport, processing and disposal of solid waste. As a result of this the urban centre is defaced with litters of garbage and offensive odours due to indiscriminate dumping of refuse within the neighborhood. The partial removal of the fuel subsidy by the Federal Government in January 2012 leads to the formation of Subsidy Reinvestment Programmes (SURE-P), the Federal Government’s share is 41 per cent of the savings while the States and Local Government shared the remaining 59 percent. The SURE-P Committee in carrying out the mandate entrusted upon it by the President by identifying few critical infrastructure and social Safety nets that will ameliorate the sufferings of Nigerians. Waste disposal programme as an aspect of Solid waste management is one of the areas of focus for Niger State SURE-programmes incorporated under Niger State Environmental Protection Agency. The emergence of this programme as related to waste management in Bida has left behind a huge refuse spots along major corridors leading to a serious state of mess. Major roads within the LGA is now turned to dumping site, thereby obstructing traffic movements, while the aesthetic nature of the town became something else with offensive odours all over. This paper however wishes to underscore the use of geographical Information System in identifying solid waste sports towards effective solid waste management in the Bida urban centre. The paper examined the spatial location of dumping points and its impact on the environment. Hand held Global Position System was use to pick the dumping points location; where a total number of 91 dumping points collected were uploaded to ArcGis 10.2 for analysis. Interview method was used to derive information from households living near the dumping site. It was discovered that the people now have to cope with offensive odours, rodents invasion, dog and cats coming around the house as a result of inadequate and in prompt collection of waste around the neighborhood. The researchers hereby recommend that more points needs to be created with prompt collections of waste within the neighborhood by the necessary SURE - P agencies.

Keywords: dumping site, neighborhood, refuse, waste

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1002 SAFECARE: Integrated Cyber-Physical Security Solution for Healthcare Critical Infrastructure

Authors: Francesco Lubrano, Fabrizio Bertone, Federico Stirano

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Modern societies strongly depend on Critical Infrastructures (CI). Hospitals, power supplies, water supplies, telecommunications are just few examples of CIs that provide vital functions to societies. CIs like hospitals are very complex environments, characterized by a huge number of cyber and physical systems that are becoming increasingly integrated. Ensuring a high level of security within such critical infrastructure requires a deep knowledge of vulnerabilities, threats, and potential attacks that may occur, as well as defence and prevention or mitigation strategies. The possibility to remotely monitor and control almost everything is pushing the adoption of network-connected devices. This implicitly introduces new threats and potential vulnerabilities, posing a risk, especially to those devices connected to the Internet. Modern medical devices used in hospitals are not an exception and are more and more being connected to enhance their functionalities and easing the management. Moreover, hospitals are environments with high flows of people, that are difficult to monitor and can somehow easily have access to the same places used by the staff, potentially creating damages. It is therefore clear that physical and cyber threats should be considered, analysed, and treated together as cyber-physical threats. This means that an integrated approach is required. SAFECARE, an integrated cyber-physical security solution, tries to respond to the presented issues within healthcare infrastructures. The challenge is to bring together the most advanced technologies from the physical and cyber security spheres, to achieve a global optimum for systemic security and for the management of combined cyber and physical threats and incidents and their interconnections. Moreover, potential impacts and cascading effects are evaluated through impact propagation models that rely on modular ontologies and a rule-based engine. Indeed, SAFECARE architecture foresees i) a macroblock related to cyber security field, where innovative tools are deployed to monitor network traffic, systems and medical devices; ii) a physical security macroblock, where video management systems are coupled with access control management, building management systems and innovative AI algorithms to detect behavior anomalies; iii) an integration system that collects all the incoming incidents, simulating their potential cascading effects, providing alerts and updated information regarding assets availability.

Keywords: cyber security, defence strategies, impact propagation, integrated security, physical security

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1001 Assessment of Hepatosteatosis Among Diabetic and Nondiabetic Patients Using Biochemical Parameters and Noninvasive Imaging Techniques

Authors: Tugba Sevinc Gamsiz, Emine Koroglu, Ozcan Keskin

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Aim: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered the most common chronic liver disease in the general population. The higher mortality and morbidity among NAFLD patients and lack of symptoms makes early detection and management important. In our study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between noninvasive imaging and biochemical markers in diabetic and nondiabetic patients diagnosed with NAFLD. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted from (September 2017) to (December 2017) on adults admitted to Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology outpatient clinics with hepatic steatosis reported on ultrasound or transient elastography within the last six months that exclude patients with other liver diseases or alcohol abuse. The data were collected and analyzed retrospectively. Number cruncher statistical system (NCSS) 2007 program was used for statistical analysis. Results: 116 patients were included in this study. Diabetic patients compared to nondiabetics had significantly higher Controlled Attenuation Parameter (CAP), Liver Stiffness Measurement (LSM) and fibrosis values. Also, hypertension, hepatomegaly, high BMI, hypertriglyceridemia, hyperglycemia, high A1c, and hyperuricemia were found to be risk factors for NAFLD progression to fibrosis. Advanced fibrosis (F3, F4) was present in 18,6 % of all our patients; 35,8 % of diabetic and 5,7 % of nondiabetic patients diagnosed with hepatic steatosis. Conclusion: Transient elastography is now used in daily clinical practice as an accurate noninvasive tool during follow-up of patients with fatty liver. Early diagnosis of the stage of liver fibrosis improves the monitoring and management of patients, especially in those with metabolic syndrome criteria.

Keywords: diabetes, elastography, fatty liver, fibrosis, metabolic syndrome

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1000 A Prediction of Cutting Forces Using Extended Kienzle Force Model Incorporating Tool Flank Wear Progression

Authors: Wu Peng, Anders Liljerehn, Martin Magnevall

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In metal cutting, tool wear gradually changes the micro geometry of the cutting edge. Today there is a significant gap in understanding the impact these geometrical changes have on the cutting forces which governs tool deflection and heat generation in the cutting zone. Accurate models and understanding of the interaction between the work piece and cutting tool leads to improved accuracy in simulation of the cutting process. These simulations are useful in several application areas, e.g., optimization of insert geometry and machine tool monitoring. This study aims to develop an extended Kienzle force model to account for the effect of rake angle variations and tool flank wear have on the cutting forces. In this paper, the starting point sets from cutting force measurements using orthogonal turning tests of pre-machined flanches with well-defined width, using triangular coated inserts to assure orthogonal condition. The cutting forces have been measured by dynamometer with a set of three different rake angles, and wear progression have been monitored during machining by an optical measuring collaborative robot. The method utilizes the measured cutting forces with the inserts flank wear progression to extend the mechanistic cutting forces model with flank wear as an input parameter. The adapted cutting forces model is validated in a turning process with commercial cutting tools. This adapted cutting forces model shows the significant capability of prediction of cutting forces accounting for tools flank wear and different-rake-angle cutting tool inserts. The result of this study suggests that the nonlinear effect of tools flank wear and interaction between the work piece and the cutting tool can be considered by the developed cutting forces model.

Keywords: cutting force, kienzle model, predictive model, tool flank wear

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999 Association Between Short-term NOx Exposure and Asthma Exacerbations in East London: A Time Series Regression Model

Authors: Hajar Hajmohammadi, Paul Pfeffer, Anna De Simoni, Jim Cole, Chris Griffiths, Sally Hull, Benjamin Heydecker

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Background: There is strong interest in the relationship between short-term air pollution exposure and human health. Most studies in this field focus on serious health effects such as death or hospital admission, but air pollution exposure affects many people with less severe impacts, such as exacerbations of respiratory conditions. A lack of quantitative analysis and inconsistent findings suggest improved methodology is needed to understand these effectsmore fully. Method: We developed a time series regression model to quantify the relationship between daily NOₓ concentration and Asthma exacerbations requiring oral steroids from primary care settings. Explanatory variables include daily NOₓ concentration measurements extracted from 8 available background and roadside monitoring stations in east London and daily ambient temperature extracted for London City Airport, located in east London. Lags of NOx concentrations up to 21 days (3 weeks) were used in the model. The dependent variable was the daily number of oral steroid courses prescribed for GP registered patients with asthma in east London. A mixed distribution model was then fitted to the significant lags of the regression model. Result: Results of the time series modelling showed a significant relationship between NOₓconcentrations on each day and the number of oral steroid courses prescribed in the following three weeks. In addition, the model using only roadside stations performs better than the model with a mixture of roadside and background stations.

Keywords: air pollution, time series modeling, public health, road transport

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998 Climate Change Effects of Vehicular Carbon Monoxide Emission from Road Transportation in Part of Minna Metropolis, Niger State, Nigeria

Authors: H. M. Liman, Y. M. Suleiman A. A. David

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Poor air quality often considered one of the greatest environmental threats facing the world today is caused majorly by the emission of carbon monoxide into the atmosphere. The principal air pollutant is carbon monoxide. One prominent source of carbon monoxide emission is the transportation sector. Not much was known about the emission levels of carbon monoxide, the primary pollutant from the road transportation in the study area. Therefore, this study assessed the levels of carbon monoxide emission from road transportation in the Minna, Niger State. The database shows the carbon monoxide data collected. MSA Altair gas alert detector was used to take the carbon monoxide emission readings in Parts per Million for the peak and off-peak periods of vehicular movement at the road intersections. Their Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates were recorded in the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM). Bar chart graphs were plotted by using the emissions level of carbon dioxide as recorded on the field against the scientifically established internationally accepted safe limit of 8.7 Parts per Million of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere. Further statistical analysis was also carried out on the data recorded from the field using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software and Microsoft excel to show the variance of the emission levels of each of the parameters in the study area. The results established that emissions’ level of atmospheric carbon monoxide from the road transportation in the study area exceeded the internationally accepted safe limits of 8.7 parts per million. In addition, the variations in the average emission levels of CO between the four parameters showed that morning peak is having the highest average emission level of 24.5PPM followed by evening peak with 22.84PPM while morning off peak is having 15.33 and the least is evening off peak 12.94PPM. Based on these results, recommendations made for poor air quality mitigation via carbon monoxide emissions reduction from transportation include Introduction of the urban mass transit would definitely reduce the number of traffic on the roads, hence the emissions from several vehicles that would have been on the road. This would also be a cheaper means of transportation for the masses and Encouraging the use of vehicles using alternative sources of energy like solar, electric and biofuel will also result in less emission levels as the these alternative energy sources other than fossil fuel originated diesel and petrol vehicles do not emit especially carbon monoxide.

Keywords: carbon monoxide, climate change emissions, road transportation, vehicular

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997 A Case Study on Machine Learning-Based Project Performance Forecasting for an Urban Road Reconstruction Project

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In construction projects, predicting project performance metrics accurately is essential for effective management and successful delivery. However, conventional methods often depend on fixed baseline plans, disregarding the evolving nature of project progress and external influences. To address this issue, we introduce a distinct approach based on machine learning to forecast key performance indicators, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category within an urban road reconstruction project. Our proposed model leverages time series forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance by analyzing historical data and project progress. Additionally, the model incorporates external factors, including weather patterns and resource availability, as features to improve forecast accuracy. By harnessing the predictive capabilities of machine learning, our performance forecasting model enables project managers to proactively identify potential deviations from the baseline plan and take timely corrective measures. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct a case study on an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's predictions with actual project performance data. The outcomes of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry by providing a data-driven solution for enhancing project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, schedule variance, earned value management

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