Search results for: tsunami risk and response
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 10753

Search results for: tsunami risk and response

7693 Pushover Analysis of Masonry Infilled Reinforced Concrete Frames for Performance Based Design for near Field Earthquakes

Authors: Alok Madan, Ashok Gupta, Arshad K. Hashmi

Abstract:

Non-linear dynamic time history analysis is considered as the most advanced and comprehensive analytical method for evaluating the seismic response and performance of multi-degree-of-freedom building structures under the influence of earthquake ground motions. However, effective and accurate application of the method requires the implementation of advanced hysteretic constitutive models of the various structural components including masonry infill panels. Sophisticated computational research tools that incorporate realistic hysteresis models for non-linear dynamic time-history analysis are not popular among the professional engineers as they are not only difficult to access but also complex and time-consuming to use. And, commercial computer programs for structural analysis and design that are acceptable to practicing engineers do not generally integrate advanced hysteretic models which can accurately simulate the hysteresis behavior of structural elements with a realistic representation of strength degradation, stiffness deterioration, energy dissipation and ‘pinching’ under cyclic load reversals in the inelastic range of behavior. In this scenario, push-over or non-linear static analysis methods have gained significant popularity, as they can be employed to assess the seismic performance of building structures while avoiding the complexities and difficulties associated with non-linear dynamic time-history analysis. “Push-over” or non-linear static analysis offers a practical and efficient alternative to non-linear dynamic time-history analysis for rationally evaluating the seismic demands. The present paper is based on the analytical investigation of the effect of distribution of masonry infill panels over the elevation of planar masonry infilled reinforced concrete (R/C) frames on the seismic demands using the capacity spectrum procedures implementing nonlinear static analysis (pushover analysis) in conjunction with the response spectrum concept. An important objective of the present study is to numerically evaluate the adequacy of the capacity spectrum method using pushover analysis for performance based design of masonry infilled R/C frames for near-field earthquake ground motions.

Keywords: nonlinear analysis, capacity spectrum method, response spectrum, seismic demand, near-field earthquakes

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7692 Seismic Reinforcement of Existing Japanese Wooden Houses Using Folded Exterior Thin Steel Plates

Authors: Jiro Takagi

Abstract:

Approximately 90 percent of the casualties in the near-fault-type Kobe earthquake in 1995 resulted from the collapse of wooden houses, although a limited number of collapses of this type of building were reported in the more recent off-shore-type Tohoku Earthquake in 2011 (excluding direct damage by the Tsunami). Kumamoto earthquake in 2016 also revealed the vulnerability of old wooden houses in Japan. There are approximately 24.5 million wooden houses in Japan and roughly 40 percent of them are considered to have the inadequate seismic-resisting capacity. Therefore, seismic strengthening of these wooden houses is an urgent task. However, it has not been quickly done for various reasons, including cost and inconvenience during the reinforcing work. Residents typically spend their money on improvements that more directly affect their daily housing environment (such as interior renovation, equipment renewal, and placement of thermal insulation) rather than on strengthening against extremely rare events such as large earthquakes. Considering this tendency of residents, a new approach to developing a seismic strengthening method for wooden houses is needed. The seismic reinforcement method developed in this research uses folded galvanized thin steel plates as both shear walls and the new exterior architectural finish. The existing finish is not removed. Because galvanized steel plates are aesthetic and durable, they are commonly used in modern Japanese buildings on roofs and walls. Residents could feel a physical change through the reinforcement, covering existing exterior walls with steel plates. Also, this exterior reinforcement can be installed with only outdoor work, thereby reducing inconvenience for residents since they would not be required to move out temporarily during construction. The Durability of the exterior is enhanced, and the reinforcing work can be done efficiently since perfect water protection is not required for the new finish. In this method, the entire exterior surface would function as shear walls and thus the pull-out force induced by seismic lateral load would be significantly reduced as compared with a typical reinforcement scheme of adding braces in selected frames. Consequently, reinforcing details of anchors to the foundations would be less difficult. In order to attach the exterior galvanized thin steel plates to the houses, new wooden beams are placed next to the existing beams. In this research, steel connections between the existing and new beams are developed, which contain a gap for the existing finish between the two beams. The thin steel plates are screwed to the new beams and the connecting vertical members. The seismic-resisting performance of the shear walls with thin steel plates is experimentally verified both for the frames and connections. It is confirmed that the performance is high enough for bracing general wooden houses.

Keywords: experiment, seismic reinforcement, thin steel plates, wooden houses

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7691 Healthy Lifestyle and Risky Behaviors amongst Students of Physical Education High Schools

Authors: Amin Amani, Masomeh Reihany Shirvan, Mahla Nabizadeh Mashizi, Mohadese Khoshtinat, Mohammad Elyas Ansarinia

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is the relationship between a healthy lifestyle and risky behavior in physical education students of Bojnourd schools. The study sample consisted of teenagers studying in second and third grade of Bojnourd's high schools. According to level sampling, 604 students studying in the second grade, and 600 students studying in third grade were tested from physical education schools in Bojnourd. For sample selection, populations were divided into 4 area including north, East, West and South. Then according to the number of students of each area, sample size of each level was determined. Two questionnaires were used to collect data in this study which were consisted of three parts: The demographic data, Iranian teenagers' risk taking (IARS) and prevention methods with emphasize on the importance of family role were examined. The Central and dispersion indices, such as standard deviation, multiple variance analysis, and multivariate regression analysis were used. Results showed that the observed F is significant (P ≤ 0.01) and 21% of variance related to risky behavior is explained by the lack of awareness. Given the significance of the regression, the coefficients of risky behavior in teenagers in prediction equation showed that each of teenagers' risky behavior can have an impact on healthy lifestyle.

Keywords: healthy lifestyle, high-risk behavior, students, physical education

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7690 Actionable Personalised Learning Strategies to Improve a Growth-Mindset in an Educational Setting Using Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Garry Gorman, Nigel McKelvey, James Connolly

Abstract:

This study will evaluate a growth mindset intervention with Junior Cycle Coding and Senior Cycle Computer Science students in Ireland, where gamification will be used to incentivise growth mindset behaviour. An artificial intelligence (AI) driven personalised learning system will be developed to present computer programming learning tasks in a manner that is best suited to the individuals’ own learning preferences while incentivising and rewarding growth mindset behaviour of persistence, mastery response to challenge, and challenge seeking. This research endeavours to measure mindset with before and after surveys (conducted nationally) and by recording growth mindset behaviour whilst playing a digital game. This study will harness the capabilities of AI and aims to determine how a personalised learning (PL) experience can impact the mindset of a broad range of students. The focus of this study will be to determine how personalising the learning experience influences female and disadvantaged students' sense of belonging in the computer science classroom when tasks are presented in a manner that is best suited to the individual. Whole Brain Learning will underpin this research and will be used as a framework to guide the research in identifying key areas such as thinking and learning styles, cognitive potential, motivators and fears, and emotional intelligence. This research will be conducted in multiple school types over one academic year. Digital games will be played multiple times over this period, and the data gathered will be used to inform the AI algorithm. The three data sets are described as follows: (i) Before and after survey data to determine the grit scores and mindsets of the participants, (ii) The Growth Mind-Set data from the game, which will measure multiple growth mindset behaviours, such as persistence, response to challenge and use of strategy, (iii) The AI data to guide PL. This study will highlight the effectiveness of an AI-driven personalised learning experience. The data will position AI within the Irish educational landscape, with a specific focus on the teaching of CS. These findings will benefit coding and computer science teachers by providing a clear pedagogy for the effective delivery of personalised learning strategies for computer science education. This pedagogy will help prevent students from developing a fixed mindset while helping pupils to exhibit persistence of effort, use of strategy, and a mastery response to challenges.

Keywords: computer science education, artificial intelligence, growth mindset, pedagogy

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7689 Comparison of Elastic and Viscoelastic Modeling for Asphalt Concrete Surface Layer

Authors: Fouzieh Rouzmehr, Mehdi Mousavi

Abstract:

Hot mix asphalt concrete (HMAC) is a mixture of aggregates and bitumen. The primary ingredient that determines the mechanical properties of HMAC is the bitumen in it, which displays viscoelastic behavior under normal service conditions. For simplicity, asphalt concrete is considered an elastic material, but this is far from reality at high service temperatures and longer loading times. Viscoelasticity means that the material's stress-strain relationship depends on the strain rate and loading duration. The goal of this paper is to simulate the mechanical response of flexible pavements using linear elastic and viscoelastic modeling of asphalt concrete and predict pavement performance. Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) load will be simulated and the results for elastic and viscoelastic modeling will be evaluated. The viscoelastic simulation is performed by the Prony series, which will be modeled by using ANSYS software. Inflexible pavement design, tensile strain at the bottom of the surface layer and compressive strain at the top of the last layer plays an important role in the structural response of the pavement and they will imply the number of loads for fatigue (Nf) and rutting (Nd) respectively. The differences of these two modelings are investigated on fatigue cracking and rutting problem, which are the two main design parameters in flexible pavement design. Although the differences in rutting problem between the two models were negligible, in fatigue cracking, the viscoelastic model results were more accurate. Results indicate that modeling the flexible pavement with elastic material is efficient enough and gives acceptable results.

Keywords: flexible pavement, asphalt, FEM, viscoelastic, elastic, ANSYS, modeling

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7688 Critical Success Factors Influencing Construction Project Performance for Different Objectives: Procurement Phase

Authors: Samart Homthong, Wutthipong Moungnoi

Abstract:

Critical success factors (CSFs) and the criteria to measure project success have received much attention over the decades and are among the most widely researched topics in the context of project management. However, although there have been extensive studies on the subject by different researchers, to date, there has been little agreement on the CSFs. The aim of this study is to identify the CSFs that influence the performance of construction projects, and determine their relative importance for different objectives across five stages in the project life cycle. A considerable literature review was conducted that resulted in the identification of 179 individual factors. These factors were then grouped into nine major categories. A questionnaire survey was used to collect data from three groups of respondents: client representatives, consultants, and contractors. Out of 164 questionnaires distributed, 93 were returned, yielding a response rate of 56.7%. Using the mean score, relative importance index, and weighted average method, the top 10 critical factors for each category were identified. The agreement of survey respondents on those categorised factors were analysed using Spearman’s rank correlation. A one-way analysis of variance was then performed to determine whether the mean scores among the various groups of respondents were statistically significant. The findings indicate the most CSFs in each category in procurement phase are: proper procurement programming of materials (time), stability in the price of materials (cost), and determining quality in the construction (quality). They are then followed by safety equipment acquisition and maintenance (health and safety), budgeting allowed in a contractual arrangement for implementing environmental management activities (environment), completeness of drawing documents (productivity), accurate measurement and pricing of bill of quantities (risk management), adequate communication among the project team (human resource), and adequate cost control measures (client satisfaction). An understanding of CSFs would help all interested parties in the construction industry to improve project performance. Furthermore, the results of this study would help construction professionals and practitioners take proactive measures for effective project management.

Keywords: critical success factors, procurement phase, project life cycle, project performance

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7687 Cash Management in a Cashless Economy of a Developing Nation, Problems and Prospects: Nigeria a Case Study

Authors: Ossai Paulinus Edwin

Abstract:

Cash Management is a broad area having to do with the collection, concentration and disbursement of cash including measuring the level of liquidity and managing the cash balance and Short-Term Investments. Cash Management involves the efficient collection and disbursement of cash and cash equivalents. It also includes management of marketable securities because, in modern Terminology, money comprises marketable securities and actual cash in hand or in a bank. This cash management is concerned with management of cash inflow and cash outflow of a business especially as it concerns a developing nation like Nigeria. The paper throws light on the impact of cashless policy in Nigeria as it was introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December 2011 and was kick started in Lagos in January 2012. Survey research was adopted with the questionnaires as data collection instrument. Responses show that cashless policy if adopted generally shall increase employment opportunities, reduce cash related robbery thereby reducing risk of carrying cash; it shall also reduce cash related corruption and attract more foreign investors to the country. It is expected that the introduction of cashless policy in Nigeria is a step in the right direction as it shall bring about modernization of Nigeria payment system, reduction in the cost of banking services, reduction in high security and safety risk and also curb banking related corruptions.

Keywords: cashless economy, cash management, cashless policy, e-banking, Nigeria

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7686 Susceptibility Assessment and Genetic Diversity of Iranian and CIMMYT Wheat Genotypes to Common Root Rot Disease Bipolaris sorokiniana

Authors: Mehdi Nasr Esfahani, Abdal-Rasool Gholamalian, Abdelfattah A. Dababat

Abstract:

Wheat, Triticum aestivum L. is one of the most important and strategic crops in the human diet. Several diseases threaten this particular crop. Common root rot disease of wheat by a fungal agent, Bipolaris sorokiniana is one of the important diseases, causing considerable losses worldwide. Resistant sources are the only feasible and effective method of control for managing diseases. In this study, the response of 33 domestic and exotic wheat genotypes, including cultivars and promising lines were screened to B. sorokiniana at greenhouse and field conditions, based on five scoring scale indexes of 0 to 100 severity percentage. The screening was continued on resistant wheat genotypes and repeated several times to confirm the greenhouse and field results. Statistical and cluster analysis of data was performed using SAS and SPSS software, respectively. The results showed that, the response of wheat genotypes to the disease in the greenhouse and field conditions was highly significant. The highest rate of common root rot disease infection, B. sorokiniana in the greenhouse and field, was of CVS. Karkheh and Beck Cross-Roshan with 60.83% and 59.16% disease severity respectively, and the lowest one were in cv. Alvand with 18.33%, followed by cv. Baharan with 19.16% disease severity, with a highly significant difference respectively. The remaining wheat genotypes were located in between these two highest and lowest infected groups to B. sorokiniana significantly. There was a high correlation coefficient between the related statistical groups and cluster analysis.

Keywords: wheat, rot, root, crown, fungus, genotype, resistance

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7685 Isolation, Purification and Characterisation of Non-Digestible Oligosaccharides Derived from Extracellular Polysaccharide of Antarctic Fungus Thelebolus Sp. IITKGP-BT12

Authors: Abinaya Balasubramanian, Satyabrata Ghosh, Satyahari Dey

Abstract:

Non-Digestible Oligosaccharides(NDOs) are low molecular weight carbohydrates with degree of polymerization (DP) 3-20, that are delivered intact to the large intestine. NDOs are gaining attention as effective prebiotic molecules that facilitate prevention and treatment of several chronic diseases. Recently, NDOs are being obtained by cleaving complex polysaccharides as it results in high yield and also as the former tend to display greater bioactivity. Thelebolus sp. IITKGP BT-12, a recently identified psychrophilic, Ascomycetes fungus has been reported to produce a bioactive extracellular polysaccharide(EPS). The EPS has been proved to possess strong prebiotic activity and anti- proliferative effects. The current study is an attempt to identify and optimise the most suitable method for hydrolysis of the above mentioned novel EPS into NDOs, and further purify and characterise the same. Among physical, chemical and enzymatic methods, enzymatic hydrolysis was identified as the best method and the optimum hydrolysis conditions obtained using response surface methodology were: reaction time of 24h, β-(1,3) endo-glucanase concentration of 0.53U and substrate concentration of 10 mg/ml. The NDOs were purified using gel filtration chromatography and their molecular weights were determined using MALDI-TOF. The major fraction was found to have a DP of 7,8. The monomeric units of the NDOs were confirmed to be glucose using TLC and GCMS-MS analysis. The obtained oligosaccharides proved to be non-digestible when subjected to gastric acidity, salivary and pancreatic amylases and hence could serve as efficient prebiotics.

Keywords: characterisation, enzymatic hydrolysis, non-digestible oligosaccharides, response surface methodology

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7684 Development of an Systematic Design in Evaluating Force-On-Force Security Exercise at Nuclear Power Plants

Authors: Seungsik Yu, Minho Kang

Abstract:

As the threat of terrorism to nuclear facilities is increasing globally after the attacks of September 11, we are striving to recognize the physical protection system and strengthen the emergency response system. Since 2015, Korea has implemented physical protection security exercise for nuclear facilities. The exercise should be carried out with full cooperation between the operator and response forces. Performance testing of the physical protection system should include appropriate exercises, for example, force-on-force exercises, to determine if the response forces can provide an effective and timely response to prevent sabotage. Significant deficiencies and actions taken should be reported as stipulated by the competent authority. The IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) is also preparing force-on-force exercise program documents to support exercise of member states. Currently, ROK(Republic of Korea) is implementing exercise on the force-on-force exercise evaluation system which is developed by itself for the nuclear power plant, and it is necessary to establish the exercise procedure considering the use of the force-on-force exercise evaluation system. The purpose of this study is to establish the work procedures of the three major organizations related to the force-on-force exercise of nuclear power plants in ROK, which conduct exercise using force-on-force exercise evaluation system. The three major organizations are composed of licensee, KINAC (Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control), and the NSSC(Nuclear Safety and Security Commission). Major activities are as follows. First, the licensee establishes and conducts an exercise plan, and when recommendations are derived from the result of the exercise, it prepares and carries out a force-on-force result report including a plan for implementation of the recommendations. Other detailed tasks include consultation with surrounding units for adversary, interviews with exercise participants, support for document evaluation, and self-training to improve the familiarity of the MILES (Multiple Integrated Laser Engagement System). Second, KINAC establishes a force-on-force exercise plan review report and reviews the force-on-force exercise plan report established by licensee. KINAC evaluate force-on-force exercise using exercise evaluation system and prepare training evaluation report. Other detailed tasks include MILES training, adversary consultation, management of exercise evaluation systems, and analysis of exercise evaluation results. Finally, the NSSC decides whether or not to approve the force-on-force exercise and makes a correction request to the nuclear facility based on the exercise results. The most important part of ROK's force-on-force exercise system is the analysis through the exercise evaluation system implemented by KINAC after the exercise. The analytical method proceeds in the order of collecting data from the exercise evaluation system and analyzing the collected data. The exercise application process of the exercise evaluation system introduced in ROK in 2016 will be concretely set up, and a system will be established to provide objective and consistent conclusions between exercise sessions. Based on the conclusions drawn up, the ultimate goal is to complement the physical protection system of licensee so that the system makes licensee respond effectively and timely against sabotage or unauthorized removal of nuclear materials.

Keywords: Force-on-Force exercise, nuclear power plant, physical protection, sabotage, unauthorized removal

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7683 Multivariate Analysis of Causes of Death among Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: A Seer-Based Study

Authors: Peri Harish Kumar, Sai Sharan Dwarka, Tajbinder Singh Bains, Suneet John Joseph, Chaitanya Kiran, Sambhu Dutta, Sarah Makram, Mohamed Sayed Zaazouee, Alaa Ahmed Elshanbary

Abstract:

Objective: To identify cancer and non-cancer causes of death in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients over different time periods after diagnosis and to compare the mortality risk of each cause in HCC patients with the general population. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, data of 67,637 HCC patients from 1975 to 2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We investigated the association between different causes of death and the following variables: age, race, tumor stage at diagnosis, and treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy); each according to the periods of <1 year, 1-5 years, 5-10 years, and >10 years following the diagnosis. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for cancer and non-cancer deaths in each of the mentioned periods following diagnosis. Results: Data of 67,637 patients, of whom 50,571 patients died during the follow-up period, were analyzed. Most deaths were due to HCC itself (35,535, 70.3%), followed by other cancers (3,983, 7.9%). Common causes of non-cancer mortality included infectious and parasitic diseases including HIV (2,823 patients, SMR=105.68, 95% CI: 101.82-109.65), chronic liver disease (2,719 patients, SMR=76.56, 95% CI: 73.71,79.5), and heart diseases (1,265 patients, SMR=2.26, 95% CI: 2.14-2.39), with higher mortality risk in HCC patients than in the general population. Conclusion: Cancers stand for most deaths in patients with HCC. Besides, infectious, and parasitic diseases including HIV represent the commonest non-cancer cause of mortality.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, seer, causes of death, mortality

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7682 Teacher-Student Interactions: Case-Control Studies on Teacher Social Skills and Children’s Behavior

Authors: Alessandra Turini Bolsoni-Silva, Sonia Regina Loureiro

Abstract:

It is important to evaluate such variables simultaneously and differentiating types of behavior problems: internalizing, externalizing and with comorbidity of internalizing and externalizing. The objective was to compare, correlate and predict teacher educational practices (educational social skills and negative practices) and children's behaviors (social skills and behavior problems) of children with internalizing, externalizing and combined internalizing and externalizing problems, controlling variables of child (gender and education). A total of 262 children were eligible to compose the participants, considering preschool age from 3 to 5 years old (n = 109) and school age from 6 to 11 (n = 153) years old, and their teachers who were distributed, in designs case-control, non-clinical, with internalizing, externalizing problems and internalizing and externalizing comorbidity, using the Teacher's Report Form (TRF) as a criterion. The instruments were applied with the teachers, after consent from the parents/guardians: a) Teacher’s Report Form (TRF); b) Educational Social Skills Interview Guide for Teachers (RE-HSE-Pr); (c) Socially Skilled Response Questionnaire – Teachers (QRSH-Pr). The data were treated by univariate and multivariate analyses, proceeding with comparisons, correlations and predictions regarding the outcomes of children with and without behavioral problems, considering the types of problems. As main results stand out: (a) group comparison studies: in the Inter group there is emphasis on behavior problems in affection interactions, which does not happen in the other groups; as for positive practices, they discriminate against groups with externalizing and combined problems and not in internalizing ones, positive educational practices – hse are more frequent in the G-Exter and G-Inter+Exter groups; negative practices differed only in the G-Exter and G-Inter+Exter groups; b) correlation studies: it can be seen that the Inter+Exter group presents a greater number of correlations in the relationship between behavioral problems/complaints and negative practices and between children's social skills and positive practices/contexts; c) prediction studies: children's social skills predict internalizing, externalizing and combined problems; it is also verified that the negative practices are in the multivariate model for the externalizing and combined ones. This investigation collaborates in the identification of risk and protective factors for specific problems, helping in interventions for different problems.

Keywords: development, educational practices, social skills, behavior problems, teacher

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7681 The Investigation of Work Stress and Burnout in Nurse Anesthetists: A Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Yen Ling Liu, Shu-Fen Wu, Chen-Fuh Lam, I-Ling Tsai, Chia-Yu Chen

Abstract:

Purpose: Nurse anesthetists are confronting extraordinarily high job stress in their daily practice, deriving from the fast-track anesthesia care, risk of perioperative complications, routine rotating shifts, teaching programs and interactions with the surgical team in the operating room. This study investigated the influence of work stress on the burnout and turnover intention of nurse anesthetists in a regional general hospital in Southern Taiwan. Methods: This was a descriptive correlational study carried out in 66 full-time nurse anesthetists. Data was collected from March 2017 to June 2017 by in-person interview, and a self-administered structured questionnaire was completed by the interviewee. Outcome measurements included the Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index (PES-NWI), Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and nursing staff turnover intention. Numerical data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, independent t test, or one-way ANOVA. Categorical data were compared using the chi-square test (x²). Datasets were computed with Pearson product-moment correlation and linear regression. Data were analyzed by using SPSS 20.0 software. Results: The average score for job burnout was 68.7916.67 (out of 100). The three major components of burnout, including emotional depletion (mean score of 26.32), depersonalization (mean score of 13.65), and personal(mean score of 24.48). These average scores suggested that these nurse anesthetists were at high risk of burnout and inversely correlated with turnover intention (t = -4.048, P < 0.05). Using linear regression model, emotional exhaustion and depersonalization were the two independent factors that predicted turnover intention in the nurse anesthetists (19.1% in total variance). Conclusion/Implications for Practice: The study identifies that the high risk of job burnout in the nurse anesthetists is not simply derived from physical overload, but most likely resulted from the additional emotional and psychological stress. The occurrence of job burnout may affect the quality of nursing work, and also influence family harmony, in turn, may increase the turnover rate. Multimodal approach is warranted to reduce work stress and job burnout in nurse anesthetists to enhance their willingness to contribute in anesthesia care.

Keywords: anesthesia nurses, burnout, job, turnover intention

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7680 Comparison of Methods of Estimation for Use in Goodness of Fit Tests for Binary Multilevel Models

Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

Abstract:

It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood, type-I error

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7679 In Vitro Morphogenic Response of the Alginate Encapsulated Nodal Segment and Antioxidative Enzymes Analysis during Acclimatization of Cassia Angustifolia Vahl

Authors: Iram Siddique

Abstract:

Synthetic seed technology is an alternative to traditional micropropagation for production and delivery of cloned plantlets. Synthetic seeds were produced by encapsulating nodal segments of C. angustifolia in calcium alginate gel. 3% (w/v) sodium alginate and 100 mM CaCl2. 2H2O were found most suitable for encapsulation of nodal segments. Synthetic seeds cultured on half strength Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium supplemented with thidiazuron (5.0 µM) + indole -3- acetic acid (1.0 µM) produced maximum number of shoots (10.9 ± 0.78) after 8 weeks of culture exhibiting (78%) in vitro conversion response. Encapsulated nodal segments demonstrated successful regeneration after different period (1-6 weeks) of cold storage at 4 °C. The synthetic seeds stored at 4 °C for a period of 4 weeks resulted in maximum conversion frequency (93%) after 8 weeks when placed back to regeneration medium. The isolated shoots when cultured on half strength MS medium supplemented with 1.0 µM indole -3- butyric acid (IBA), produced healthy roots and plantlets with well developed shoot and roots were successfully hardened off in plastic pots containing sterile soilrite inside the growth chamber and gradually transferred to greenhouse where they grew well with 85% survival rate. Changes in the content of photosynthetic pigments, net photosynthetic rate (PN), superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) activity in C. angustifolia indicated the adaptation of micropropagated plants to ex vitro conditions.

Keywords: biochemical studies, nodal segments, rooting, synthetic seeds, thidiazuron

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7678 GIS Technology for Environmentally Polluted Sites with Innovative Process to Improve the Quality and Assesses the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)

Authors: Hamad Almebayedh, Chuxia Lin, Yu wang

Abstract:

The environmental impact assessment (EIA) must be improved, assessed, and quality checked for human and environmental health and safety. Soil contamination is expanding, and sites and soil remediation activities proceeding around the word which simplifies the answer “quality soil characterization” will lead to “quality EIA” to illuminate the contamination level and extent and reveal the unknown for the way forward to remediate, countifying, containing, minimizing and eliminating the environmental damage. Spatial interpolation methods play a significant role in decision making, planning remediation strategies, environmental management, and risk assessment, as it provides essential elements towards site characterization, which need to be informed into the EIA. The Innovative 3D soil mapping and soil characterization technology presented in this research paper reveal the unknown information and the extent of the contaminated soil in specific and enhance soil characterization information in general which will be reflected in improving the information provided in developing the EIA related to specific sites. The foremost aims of this research paper are to present novel 3D mapping technology to quality and cost-effectively characterize and estimate the distribution of key soil characteristics in contaminated sites and develop Innovative process/procedure “assessment measures” for EIA quality and assessment. The contaminated site and field investigation was conducted by innovative 3D mapping technology to characterize the composition of petroleum hydrocarbons contaminated soils in a decommissioned oilfield waste pit in Kuwait. The results show the depth and extent of the contamination, which has been interred into a developed assessment process and procedure for the EIA quality review checklist to enhance the EIA and drive remediation and risk assessment strategies. We have concluded that to minimize the possible adverse environmental impacts on the investigated site in Kuwait, the soil-capping approach may be sufficient and may represent a cost-effective management option as the environmental risk from the contaminated soils is considered to be relatively low. This research paper adopts a multi-method approach involving reviewing the existing literature related to the research area, case studies, and computer simulation.

Keywords: quality EIA, spatial interpolation, soil characterization, contaminated site

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7677 Factors Determining the Vulnerability to Occupational Health Risk and Safety of Call Center Agents in the Philippines

Authors: Lito M. Amit, Venecio U. Ultra, Young-Woong Song

Abstract:

The business process outsourcing (BPO) in the Philippines is expanding rapidly attracting more than 2% of total employment. Currently, the BPO industry is confronted with several issues pertaining to sustainable productivity such as meeting the staffing gap, high rate of employees’ turnover and workforce retention, and the occupational health and safety (OHS) of call center agents. We conducted a survey of OHS programs and health concerns among call center agents in the Philippines and determined the sociocultural factors that affect the vulnerability of call center agents to occupational health risks and hazards. The majority of the agents affirmed that OHS are implemented and OHS orientation and emergency procedures were conducted at employment initiations, perceived favorable and convenient working environment except for occasional noise disturbances and acoustic shock, visual, and voice fatigues. Male agents can easily adjust to the demands and changes in their work environment and flexible work schedules than female agents. Female agents have a higher tendency to be pressured and humiliated by low work performance, experience a higher incidence of emotional abuse, psychological abuse, and experience more physical stress than male agents. The majority of the call center agents had a night-shift schedule and regardless of other factors, night shift work brings higher stress to agents. While working in a call center, higher incidence of headaches and insomnia, burnout, suppressed anger, anxiety, and depressions were experienced by female, younger (21-25 years old) and those at night shift than their counterpart. Most common musculoskeletal disorders include body pain in the neck, shoulders and back; and hand and wrist disorders and these are commonly experienced by female and younger workers. About 30% experienced symptoms of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal disorders and weakened immune systems. Overall, these findings have shown the variable vulnerability by a different subpopulation of call center agents and are important in the occupational health risk prevention and management towards a sustainable human resource for BPO industry in the Philippines.

Keywords: business process outsourcing industry, health risk of call center agents, socio-cultural determinants, Philippines

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7676 Effectiveness of Balloon Angioplasty and Stent Angioplasty: Wound Healing in Critically Limb Ischemic

Authors: M. Wisnu Pamungkas, Patrianef Darwis

Abstract:

Introduction: Critical limb ischemia (CLI) is a vascular disease that has a significant amputation and mortality risk with diabetes mellitus, the most significant risk factor in CLI, is very common among Indonesian. Endovascular intervention (EVI) is preferred in treating CLI because it is noninvasive and effective. Balloon angioplasty and stent angioplasty are the most common method of EVI in Indonesia. This study aims to compare the effectiveness of balloon angioplasty and stent angioplasty on wound healing in CLI. Method: A cross-sectional study enrolled 90 subjects of CLI who underwent endovascular intervention using balloon angioplasty and stent angioplasty from January 2013 to July 2017 in dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital, Jakarta. The wound healing period between balloon angioplasty dan stent angioplasty was analyzed using unpaired T-test with p<0,05 considered as statistically significant. Data of intervention method wound healing period, and subjects characteristic data (age, amputation, BMI, smoking habit, DM, occlusion site, and blood profile) were obtained. Result: The wound healing period in balloon angioplasty and stent angioplasty distributed normally. Mean value of wound healing period in balloon angioplasty and stent angioplasty are 84,8+/-2,423 and 59,93 +/- 2,423 days with a mean difference of 25 days. The difference in wound healing period in both groups is statically significant (p<0,05). The amputation event in balloon angioplasty and stent angioplasty is 22 and 16 event with no difference statistically. Conclusion: Stent angioplasty is a better method than balloon angioplasty for wound healing in patients with CLI.

Keywords: critical limb ischemia, endovascular intervention, wound healing, angioplasty

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7675 Theoretical-Methodological Model to Study Vulnerability of Death in the Past from a Bioarchaeological Approach

Authors: Geraldine G. Granados Vazquez

Abstract:

Every human being is exposed to the risk of dying; wherein some of them are more susceptible than others depending on the cause. Therefore, the cause could be the hazard to die that a group or individual has, making this irreversible damage the condition of vulnerability. Risk is a dynamic concept; which means that it depends on the environmental, social, economic and political conditions. Thus vulnerability may only be evaluated in terms of relative parameters. This research is focusing specifically on building a model that evaluate the risk or propensity of death in past urban societies in connection with the everyday life of individuals, considering that death can be a consequence of two coexisting issues: hazard and the deterioration of the resistance to destruction. One of the most important discussions in bioarchaeology refers to health and life conditions in ancient groups; the researchers are looking for more flexible models that evaluate these topics. In that way, this research proposes a theoretical-methodological model that assess the vulnerability of death in past urban groups. This model pretends to be useful to evaluate the risk of death, considering their sociohistorical context, and their intrinsic biological features. This theoretical and methodological model, propose four areas to assess vulnerability. The first three areas use statistical methods or quantitative analysis. While the last and fourth area, which corresponds to the embodiment, is based on qualitative analysis. The four areas and their techniques proposed are a) Demographic dynamics. From the distribution of age at the time of death, the analysis of mortality will be performed using life tables. From here, four aspects may be inferred: population structure, fertility, mortality-survival, and productivity-migration, b) Frailty. Selective mortality and heterogeneity in frailty can be assessed through the relationship between characteristics and the age at death. There are two indicators used in contemporary populations to evaluate stress: height and linear enamel hypoplasias. Height estimates may account for the individual’s nutrition and health history in specific groups; while enamel hypoplasias are an account of the individual’s first years of life, c) Inequality. Space reflects various sectors of society, also in ancient cities. In general terms, the spatial analysis uses measures of association to show the relationship between frail variables and space, d) Embodiment. The story of everyone leaves some evidence on the body, even in the bones. That led us to think about the dynamic individual's relations in terms of time and space; consequently, the micro analysis of persons will assess vulnerability from the everyday life, where the symbolic meaning also plays a major role. In sum, using some Mesoamerica examples, as study cases, this research demonstrates that not only the intrinsic characteristics related to the age and sex of individuals are conducive to vulnerability, but also the social and historical context that determines their state of frailty before death. An attenuating factor for past groups is that some basic aspects –such as the role they played in everyday life– escape our comprehension, and are still under discussion.

Keywords: bioarchaeology, frailty, Mesoamerica, vulnerability

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7674 Avoidant Restrictive Food Intake Disorder and Its Impact on Other Eating Disorders

Authors: I. Caldas, T. Duarte

Abstract:

Avoidant Restrictive Food Intake Disorder (ARFID) was included for the first time in DSM-5, replacing the old diagnosis of DSM-4 'Early Childhood Eating Disorder'. An ARFID is characterized by a restrictive/avoidant eating pattern that can lead to severe nutritional deficiency, weight loss, nutritional supplementation dependence, and poor psychosocial functioning. This eating pattern is associated with decreased interest in food, worries about food characteristics or the act of ingestion, and lack of concern with weight or body image. This paper aims to understand the impact of this new diagnosis in other Eating Disorders (ED) prevalence, as well as to compare their therapeutic approaches. Methodology: Literature reviewed by PubMed with the following keywords: 'ARFID', 'Prevalence', and 'Eating Disorders'. We selected articles related to this theme, written since 2016. Results: In a population of children hospitalized with ED, 5% to 14% was diagnosed with ARFID, and, as outpatient treatment, the prevalence was 22%. People diagnosed with ARFID have more prevalence of other comorbidities, especially autism spectrum, are younger, and are more often male. Regarding the treatment of ARFID, it most often required nasogastric feeding, and with less suffering associated with this procedure, compared to AN. Despite these differences, 12% of patients diagnosed with ARFID transited to AN during treatment, suggesting that the first pathology may be a risk factor for the development of AN. Conclusions: The differences identified between ARFID and the other EDs are important when analyzed as differential diagnostic hypotheses and therapeutic approaches. Further study is necessary regarding its prevalence, risk factors, and treatment.

Keywords: avoidant restrictive food intake disorder, ARFID, differential diagnoses, eating disorders, prevalence

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7673 Microalgae Hydrothermal Liquefaction Process Optimization and Comprehension to Produce High Quality Biofuel

Authors: Lucie Matricon, Anne Roubaud, Geert Haarlemmer, Christophe Geantet

Abstract:

Introduction: This case discusses the management of two floor of mouth (FOM) Squamous Cell Carcinomas (SCC) not identified upon initial biopsy. Case Report: A 51 year-old male presented with right FOM erythroleukoplakia. Relevant medical history included alcoholic dependence syndrome and alcoholic liver disease. Relevant drug therapy encompassed acamprosate, folic acid, hydroxocobalamin and thiamine. The patient had a 55.5 pack-year smoking history and alcohol dependence from age 14, drinking 16 units/day. FOM incisional biopsy and histopathological analysis diagnosed Carcinoma in situ. Treatment involved wide local excision. Specimen analysis revealed two separate foci of pT1 moderately differentiated SCCs. Carcinoma staging scans revealed no pathological lymphadenopathy, no local invasion or metastasis. SCCs had been excised in completion with narrow margins. MDT discussion concluded that in view of the field changes it would be difficult to identify specific areas needing further excision, although techniques such as Lugol’s Iodine were considered. Further surgical resection, surgical neck management and sentinel lymph node biopsy was offered. The patient declined intervention, primary management involved close monitoring alongside alcohol and smoking cessation referral. Discussion: Narrow excisional margins can increase carcinoma recurrence risk. Biopsy failed to identify SCCs, despite sampling an area of clinical concern. For gross field change multiple incisional biopsies should be considered to increase chance of accurate diagnosis and appropriate treatment. Coupling of tobacco and alcohol has a synergistic effect, exponentially increasing the relative risk of oral carcinoma development. Tobacco and alcoholic control is fundamental in reducing treatment‑related side effects, recurrence risk, and second primary cancer development.

Keywords: microalgae, biofuels, hydrothermal liquefaction, biomass

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7672 Ovarian Hormones and Antioxidants Biomarkers in Dromedary Camels Synchronized with Controlled Intravaginal Drug Release/Ovsynch GPG Program during Breeding Season

Authors: Heba Hozyen, Ragab Mohamed, Amal Abd El Hameed, Amal Abo El-Maaty

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate the effect of CIDR and ovsynch (Gonadotropin-prostaglandine-gonadotropin GPG) protocols for synchronization of follicular waves of dromedary camels on ovarian hormones, oxidative stress and conception during breeding season. Twelve dark colored dromedary camels were divided into two equal groups. The first group was subjected to CIDR insertion for 7 days and blood samples were collected each other day from the day of CIDR insertion (day 0) till day 21. The other group was subjected to GPG system (Ovsynch) and blood samples were collected daily for 11 days. Progesterone (P4) and estradiol were assayed using commercial ELISA diagnostic EIA kits. Catalase (CAT), total antioxidants capacity (TAC), glutathione reduced (GHD), lipid peroxide product (malondialdehyde, MDA) and nitric oxide (NO) were measured colorimetrically using spectrophotometer. Results revealed that CIDR treated camels had significantly high P4 (P= 0.0001), estradiol (P= 0.0001), CAT (P= 0.034), NO (P= 0.016) and TAC (P= 0.04) but significantly low MDA (P= 0.001) and GHD (P= 0.003) compared to GPG treated ones. Camels inserted with CIDR had higher conception rate (66.7%) compared to those treated with GPG (33%). In conclusion, camels treated with CIDR had higher hormonal response and antioxidant capacity than those synchronized with GPG which positively reflected on their conception rate. The better response of camels to CIDR and the higher conception compared to GPG protocol recommends its use for future reproductive management in camels.

Keywords: antioxidants, camel, CIDR, season, steroid hormones

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7671 Laboratory Diagnostic Testing of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Georgia

Authors: Nino G. Vepkhvadze, Tea Enukidze

Abstract:

Every year the number of countries around the world face the risk of the spread of infectious diseases that bring significant ecological and social-economic damage. Hence, the importance of food product safety is emphasized that is the issue of interest for many countries. To solve them, it’s necessary to conduct preventive measures against the diseases, have accurate diagnostic results, leadership, and management. The Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) disease is caused by a morbillivirus closely related to the rinderpest virus. PPR is a transboundary disease as it emerges and evolves, considered as one of the top most damaging animal diseases. The disease imposed a serious threat to sheep-breeding when the farms of sheep, goats are significantly growing within the country. In January 2016, PPR was detected in Georgia. Up to present the origin of the virus, the age relationship of affected ruminants and the distribution of PPRV in Georgia remains unclear. Due to the nature of PPR, and breeding practices in the country, reemerging of the disease in Georgia is highly likely. The purpose of the studies is to provide laboratories with efficient tools allowing the early detection of PPR emergence and re-emergences. This study is being accomplished under the Biological Threat Reduction Program project with the support of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The purpose of the studies is to investigate the samples and identify areas at high risk of the disease. Georgia has a high density of small ruminant herds bred as free-ranging, close to international borders. Kakheti region, Eastern Georgia, will be considered as area of high priority for PPR surveillance. For this reason, in 2019, in Kakheti region investigated n=484 sheep and goat serum and blood samples from the same animals, utilized serology and molecular biology methods. All samples were negative by RT-PCR, and n=6 sheep samples were seropositive by ELISA-Ab. Future efforts will be concentrated in areas where the risk of PPR might be high such as international bordering regions of Georgia. For diagnostics, it is important to integrate the PPRV knowledge with epidemiological data. Based on these diagnostics, the relevant agencies will be able to control the disease surveillance.

Keywords: animal disease, especially dangerous pathogen, laboratory diagnostics, virus

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7670 Effectiveness of the Lacey Assessment of Preterm Infants to Predict Neuromotor Outcomes of Premature Babies at 12 Months Corrected Age

Authors: Thanooja Naushad, Meena Natarajan, Tushar Vasant Kulkarni

Abstract:

Background: The Lacey Assessment of Preterm Infants (LAPI) is used in clinical practice to identify premature babies at risk of neuromotor impairments, especially cerebral palsy. This study attempted to find the validity of the Lacey assessment of preterm infants to predict neuromotor outcomes of premature babies at 12 months corrected age and to compare its predictive ability with the brain ultrasound. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 89 preterm infants (45 females and 44 males) born below 35 weeks gestation who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of a government hospital in Dubai. Initial assessment was done using the Lacey assessment after the babies reached 33 weeks postmenstrual age. Follow up assessment on neuromotor outcomes was done at 12 months (± 1 week) corrected age using two standardized outcome measures, i.e., infant neurological international battery and Alberta infant motor scale. Brain ultrasound data were collected retrospectively. Data were statistically analyzed, and the diagnostic accuracy of the Lacey assessment of preterm infants (LAPI) was calculated -when used alone and in combination with the brain ultrasound. Results: On comparison with brain ultrasound, the Lacey assessment showed superior specificity (96% vs. 77%), higher positive predictive value (57% vs. 22%), and higher positive likelihood ratio (18 vs. 3) to predict neuromotor outcomes at one year of age. The sensitivity of Lacey assessment was lower than brain ultrasound (66% vs. 83%), whereas specificity was similar (97% vs. 98%). A combination of Lacey assessment and brain ultrasound results showed higher sensitivity (80%), positive (66%), and negative (98%) predictive values, positive likelihood ratio (24), and test accuracy (95%) than Lacey assessment alone in predicting neurological outcomes. The negative predictive value of the Lacey assessment was similar to that of its combination with brain ultrasound (96%). Conclusion: Results of this study suggest that the Lacey assessment of preterm infants can be used as a supplementary assessment tool for premature babies in the neonatal intensive care unit. Due to its high specificity, Lacey assessment can be used to identify those babies at low risk of abnormal neuromotor outcomes at a later age. When used along with the findings of the brain ultrasound, Lacey assessment has better sensitivity to identify preterm babies at particular risk. These findings have applications in identifying premature babies who may benefit from early intervention services.

Keywords: brain ultrasound, lacey assessment of preterm infants, neuromotor outcomes, preterm

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7669 Oncological and Antiresorptive Treatment of Breast Cancer: Dental Assessment and Risk of MRONJ Development

Authors: Magdalena Korytowska, Gunnar Lengstrand, Cecilia Larsson Wexell

Abstract:

Background: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among women worldwide, and cases are continuing to increase in Sweden. Bone is the most common metastatic site in breast cancer patients, where > 65-75% of women with advanced breast cancer develop bone metastases during their disease. To prevent the skeletal-related events of metastases (e.g., pathological fractures, bone loss, cancer-induced bone pain, and hypercalcemia bone), two different classes of antiresorptive medications (AR), bisphosphonate and denosumab are typically administered every 3 to 4 weeks. Since 2015, adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment has been used every six months for three to five years in postmenopausal women for the prevention of skeletal metastases and improved survival. Methods: A case-control study was conducted to test the hypotheses that patients treated with high-dose AR are at higher risk of developing MRONJ than breast cancer patients with adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment at a lower dose. Medical and odontological data was collected between 2015-2020. Assessment of oral health and dental care before and during oncological treatment took place at the specialist clinic for Orofacial medicine linked to the specific hospital. Results: In total, 220 patients were included, 101 patients in the high-dose group and 119 patients in the adjuvant BP-treatment group. MRONJ was diagnosed in 13 patients (14%) in the high-dose group. The mandible was affected in most of the cases (84.6%), with a mean duration of high-dose treatment of 19.7 months. In 46.2% of cases, no dental cause of MRONJ could be identified. Overall, estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) BC was the most representative type in 172 patients (78.2%). However, this was 83.9% in the high-dose cases group. The most used drug was denosumab. Twenty-five patients (26.9%) switched their medication from ZOL to denosumab during their oncological treatment. Patients with ER+ breast cancer were reported in 88 patients (87.8%) in the adjuvant group that was treated with ZOL. Conclusions: MRONJ was diagnosed only in the high-dose AR group. Dental assessment and care of patients in the adjuvant group should be considered, with a recommendation to potentially prolong ZOL treatment from 3 to 5 years, with concomitant use of hormonal therapy in patients diagnosed with ER+ breast cancer to prevent bone loss induced by oncological treatment. A new referral for dental assessment is very important in the case of bone metastases when treatment with high dose AR will be required since it is associated with a higher risk of MRONJ.

Keywords: antiresorptive therapy, breast cancer, dental care, MRONJ

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7668 A Generalised Propensity Score Analysis to Investigate the Influence of Agricultural Research Systems on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Authors: Spada Alessia, Fiore Mariantonietta, Lamonaca Emilia, Contò Francesco

Abstract:

Bioeconomy can give the chance to face new global challenges and can move ahead the transition from a waste economy to an economy based on renewable resources and sustainable consumption. Air pollution is a grave issue in green challenges, mainly caused by anthropogenic factors. The agriculture sector is a great contributor to global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions due to lacking efficient management of the resources involved and research policies. In particular, livestock sector contributes to emissions of GHGs, deforestation, and nutrient imbalances. More effective agricultural research systems and technologies are crucial in order to improve farm productivity but also to reduce the GHGs emissions. Using data from FAOSTAT statistics and concern the EU countries; the aim of this research is to evaluate the impact of ASTI R&D (Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators) on GHGs emissions for countries EU in 2015 by generalized propensity score procedures, estimating a dose-response function, also considering a set of covariates. Expected results show the existence of the influence of ASTI R&D on GHGs across EU countries. Implications are crucial: reducing GHGs emissions by means of R&D based policies and correlatively reaching eco-friendly management of required resources by means of green available practices could have a crucial role for fair intra-generational implications.

Keywords: agricultural research systems, dose-response function, generalized propensity score, GHG emissions

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7667 A Review of Type 2 Diabetes and Diabetes-Related Cardiovascular Disease in Zambia

Authors: Mwenya Mubanga, Sula Mazimba

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Background: In Zambia, much of the focus on nutrition and health has been on reducing micronutrient deficiencies, wasting and underweight malnutrition and not on the rising global projections of trends in obesity and type 2 diabetes. The aim of this review was to identify and collate studies on the prevalence of obesity, diabetes and diabetes-related cardiovascular disease conducted in Zambia, to summarize their findings and to identify areas that need further research. Methods: The Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System (MEDLINE) database was searched for peer-reviewed articles on the prevalence of, and factors associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and diabetes-related cardiovascular disease amongst Zambian residents using a combination of search terms. The period of search was from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2016. We expanded the search terms to include all possible synonyms and spellings obtained in the search strategy. Additionally, we performed a manual search for other articles and references of peer-reviewed articles. Results: In Zambia, the current prevalence of Obesity and Type 2 diabetes is estimated at 13%-16% and 2.0 – 3.0% respectively. Risk factors such as the adoption of western dietary habits, the social stigmatization associated with rapid weight loss due to Tuberculosis and/ or the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and rapid urbanization have all been blamed for fueling the increased risk of obesity and type 2 diabetes. However, unlike traditional Western populations, those with no formal education were less likely to be obese than those who attained secondary or tertiary level education. Approximately 30% of those surveyed were unaware of their diabetes diagnosis and more than 60% were not on treatment despite a known diabetic status. Socio-demographic factors such as older age, female sex, urban dwelling, lack of tobacco use and marital status were associated with an increased risk of obesity, impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes. We were unable to identify studies that specifically looked at diabetes-related cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: Although the prevalence of Obesity and Type 2 diabetes in Zambia appears low, more representative studies focusing on parts of the country outside of the main industrial zone need to be conducted. There also needs to be research on diabetes-related cardiovascular disease. National surveillance, monitoring and evaluation on all non-communicable diseases need to be prioritized and policies that address underweight, obesity and type 2 diabetes developed.

Keywords: type 2 diabetes, Zambia, obesity, cardiovascular disease

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7666 Software Vulnerability Markets: Discoverers and Buyers

Authors: Abdullah M. Algarni, Yashwant K. Malaiya

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Some of the key aspects of vulnerability-discovery, dissemination, and disclosure-have received some attention recently. However, the role of interaction among the vulnerability discoverers and vulnerability acquirers has not yet been adequately addressed. Our study suggests that a major percentage of discoverers, a majority in some cases, are unaffiliated with the software developers and thus are free to disseminate the vulnerabilities they discover in any way they like. As a result, multiple vulnerability markets have emerged. In some of these markets, the exchange is regulated, but in others, there is little or no regulation. In recent vulnerability discovery literature, the vulnerability discoverers have remained anonymous individuals. Although there has been an attempt to model the level of their efforts, information regarding their identities, modes of operation, and what they are doing with the discovered vulnerabilities has not been explored. Reports of buying and selling of the vulnerabilities are now appearing in the press; however, the existence of such markets requires validation, and the natures of the markets need to be analysed. To address this need, we have attempted to collect detailed information. We have identified the most prolific vulnerability discoverers throughout the past decade and examined their motivation and methods. A large percentage of these discoverers are located in Eastern and Western Europe and in the Far East. We have contacted several of them in order to collect first-hand information regarding their techniques, motivations, and involvement in the vulnerability markets. We examine why many of the discoverers appear to retire after a highly successful vulnerability-finding career. The paper identifies the actual vulnerability markets, rather than the hypothetical ideal markets that are often examined. The emergence of worldwide government agencies as vulnerability buyers has significant implications. We discuss potential factors that can impact the risk to society and the need for detailed exploration.

Keywords: risk management, software security, vulnerability discoverers, vulnerability markets

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7665 Physical Planning Strategies for Disaster Mitigation and Preparedness in Coastal Region of Andhra Pradesh, India

Authors: Thimma Reddy Pothireddy, Ramesh Srikonda

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India is prone to natural disasters such as Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides frequently due to its geographical considerations. It has become a persistent phenomenon as observed in last ten decades. The recent survey indicates that about 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various intensities with reference to Richard scale, over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone to cyclones and 68% of the area is vulnerable to drought. Climate change is likely to be perceived through the experience of extreme weather events. There is growing societal concern about climate change, given the potential impacts of associated natural hazards such as cyclones, flooding, earthquakes, landslides etc. The recent natural calamities such as Cyclone Hudhud had crossed the land at Northern cost of AP, Vishakapatanam on 12 Oct’2014 with a wind speed ranging between 175 – 200 kmph and the records show that the tidal waves were reached to the height of 14mts and above; and it alarms us to have critical focus on planning issues so as to find appropriate solutions. The existing condition is effective is in terms of institutional set up along with responsive management mechanism of disaster mitigation but considerations at settlement planning level to allow mitigation operations are not adequate. This paper deals to understand the response to climate change will possibly happen through adaptation to climate hazards and essential to work out an appropriate mechanism and disaster receptive settlement planning for responding to natural (and climate-related) calamities particularly to cyclones and floods. The statistics indicate that 40 million hectares flood prone (5% of area), and 1853 kmts of cyclone prone coastal length in India so it is essential and crucial to have appropriate physical planning considerations to improve preparedness and to operate mitigation measures effectively to minimize the loss and damage. Vijayawada capital region which is susceptible to cyclonic and floods has been studied with respect to trajectory analysis to work out risk vulnerability and to integrated disaster mitigation physical planning considerations.

Keywords: meta analysis, vulnerability index, physical planning, trajectories

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7664 Suggestion of Two-Step Traction Therapy for Safer and More Effective Conservative Treatment for Low Back Pain

Authors: Won Man Park, Dae Kyung Choi, Kyungsoo Kim, Yoon Hyuk Kim

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Traction therapy has been used in the treatment of spinal pain for decades. However, a case study reported the occurrence of large disc protrusion during motorized traction therapy. In this study, we hypothesized that additional local decompression with a global axial traction could be helpful for risk reduction of intervertebral disc damage. A validated three dimensional finite element model of the lumbar spine was used. Two-step traction therapy using the axial global traction (the first step) with 1/3 body weight and the additional local decompression (the second step) with 7 mm translation of L4 spinal bone was determined for the traction therapy. During two-step traction therapy, the sacrum was constrained in all translational directions. Reduced lordosis angle by the global axial traction recovered with the additional local decompression. Stress on fibers of the annulus fibrosus by the axial global traction decreased with the local decompression by 17%~96% in the posterior region of intervertebral disc. Stresses on ligaments except anterior longitudinal ligaments in all motion segments decreased till 4.9 mm~5.6 mm translation of L4 spinal bone. The results of this study showed that the additional local decompression is very useful for reducing risk of damage in the intervertebral disc and ligaments caused by the global axial traction force. Moreover, the local decompression could be used to enhance reduction of intradiscal pressure.

Keywords: lumbar spine, traction-therapy, biomechanics, finite element analysis

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