Search results for: software cumulative failure prediction

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

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This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Selma Bouasria, Mahi Abdelkader, Abbès Azzi, Herouz Keltoum

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This paper reports concept was used into the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code cfx through user-defined functions to assess ventilation efficiency inside (forced-ventilation local). CFX is a simulation tool which uses powerful computer and applied mathematics, to model fluid flow situations for the prediction of heat, mass and momentum transfer and optimal design in various heat transfer and fluid flow processes to evaluate thermal comfort in a room ventilated (highly-glazed). The quality of the solutions obtained from CFD simulations is an effective tool for predicting the behavior and performance indoor thermo-aéraulique comfort.

Keywords: ventilation, thermal comfort, CFD, indoor environment, solar air heater

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Authors: Rodrigo S. Moreira, Nelson F. F. Ebecken

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This paper proposes a maritime vessel tracker composed of an ensemble of WiSARD weightless neural network classifiers. A failure detector analyzes vessel movement with a Kalman filter and corrects the tracking, if necessary, using FFT matching. The use of the WiSARD neural network to track objects is uncommon. The additional contributions of the present study include a performance comparison with four state-of-art trackers, an experimental study of the features that improve maritime vessel tracking, the first use of an ensemble of classifiers to track maritime vessels and a new quantization algorithm that compares the values of pixel pairs.

Keywords: ram memory, WiSARD weightless neural network, object tracking, quantization

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Authors: Kadry M. Sadek, Tarek K. Abouzed, Mousa A. Ayoub

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The presence of endocrine-disrupting compounds, such as bisphenol A (BPA), in the environment can cause serious health problems. However, there are controversial opinions. This study investigated the reproductive, metabolic, oxidative and immunologic-disrupting effects of bisphenol A in male rabbits. Rabbits were divided into five groups. The first four rabbit groups were administered oral BPA (1, 10, 50, or 100 mg/kg/day) for ten weeks. The fifth group was administered corn oil as the vehicle. BPA significantly decreased serum testosterone, estradiol and the free androgen index (FAI) and significantly increased sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) compared with the placebo group. The higher doses of BPA showed a significant decrease in follicular stimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH). A significant increase in blood glucose levels was identified in the BPA groups. The non-significant difference in insulin levels is a novel finding. The cumulative testicular toxicity of BPA was clearly demonstrated by the dose-dependent decrease in absolute testes weight, primary measures of semen quality and a significant increase in testicular malonaldehyde (MDA). Moreover, BPA significantly decreased total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and significantly increased immunoglobulin G (IgG) at the highest concentration. Our results suggest that BPA, especially at higher doses, is associated with many adverse effects on metabolism, oxidative stress, immunity, sperm quality and markers of androgenic action. These results may reflect the estrogenic effects of BPA, which we hypothesize could be related, in part, to an inhibitory effect on testicular steroidogenesis. The induction of oxidative stress by BPA may play an additional role in testicular toxicity. These results suggest that BPA poses a threat to endocrine and reproductive functions.

Keywords: bisphenol A, oxidative stress, rabbits, semen quality, steroidogenesis

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Authors: Sujin Hwang, Hyerang Park, Hyunchul Kim

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The purpose of this study is to find the effectiveness of the admission simplification policy. The number of online news articles about ‘high school record’ was collected and semantically analyzed to identify and analyze the social awareness during 2014 to 2015. The main results of the study are as follows: First, there was a difference in expectations that the burden of the examinees would decrease as announced by KCUE. Thus, there was still a strain on the university entrance exam after the enforcement of the policy. Second, private tutoring is expanding in different forms, rather than reducing the policy. It is different from the prediction that examinees can prepare for university admissions without the private tutoring. Thus, the college admission rules currently enforced needs to be improved. The reasonable college admission system changes are discussed.

Keywords: education policy, private tutoring, shadow education, education admission policy

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Authors: A. H. Meysami

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In this paper, the hot compression tests were carried on X45CrNiW189 valve steel (X45) in the temperature range of 1000–1200°C and the strain rate range of 0.004–0.5 s^(-1) in order to study the high temperature softening behavior of the steel. For the exact prediction of flow stress, the effective stress - effective strain curves were obtained from experiments under various conditions. On the basis of experimental results, the dynamic recrystallization fraction (DRX), AGS, hot deformation and activation energy behavior were investigated. It was found that the calculated results were in a good agreement with the experimental flow stress and microstructure of the steel for different conditions of hot deformation.

Keywords: X45CrNiW189, valve steel, hot compression test, dynamic recrystallization, hot deformation

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Authors: Didem Venus Yildiz, Murat Hocaoglu, Murat Dursun, Taner Akkan

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The shoulder joint is a more complex structure than the hip or knee joints. In addition to the overall complexity of the shoulder joint, two different factors influence the insufficient outcome of shoulder replacement: the shoulder prosthesis design is far from fully developed and it is difficult to place these shoulder prosthesis due to shoulder anatomy. The glenohumeral joint is the most complex joint of the human shoulder. There are various treatments for shoulder failures such as total shoulder arthroplasty, reverse total shoulder arthroplasty. Due to its reverse design than normal shoulder anatomy, reverse total shoulder arthroplasty has different physiological and biomechanical properties. Post-operative achievement of this arthroplasty is depend on improved design of reverse total shoulder prosthesis. Designation achievement can be increased by several biomechanical and computational analysis. In this study, data of human both shoulders with right side fracture was collected by 3D Computer Tomography (CT) machine in dicom format. This data transferred to 3D medical image processing software (Mimics Materilise, Leuven, Belgium) to reconstruct patient’s left and right shoulders’ bones geometry. Provided 3D geometry model of the fractured shoulder was used to constitute of reverse total shoulder prosthesis by 3-matic software. Finite element (FE) analysis was conducted for comparison of intact shoulder and prosthetic shoulder in terms of stress distribution and displacements. Body weight physiological reaction force of 800 N loads was applied. Resultant values of FE analysis was compared for both shoulders. The analysis of the performance of the reverse shoulder prosthesis could enhance the knowledge of the prosthetic design.

Keywords: reverse shoulder prosthesis, biomechanics, finite element analysis, 3D printing

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Authors: Tina Ternes, Florian Kleinau

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The study investigates the content and triggers of mind wandering (MW) in readers of fictional texts. It asks whether readers’ MW is productive (text-related) or unproductive (text-unrelated). Methodologically, it bridges the gap between narratological and data-driven approaches by utilizing a sentence-by-sentence self-paced reading paradigm combined with thought probes in the reading of an excerpt of A. L. Kennedy’s “Baby Blue”. Results show that the contents of MW can be linked to text properties. We validated the role of self-reference in MW and found prediction errors to be triggers of MW. Results also indicate that the content of MW often travels along the lines of the text at hand and can thus be viewed as productive and integral to interpretation.

Keywords: narratology, mind wandering, reading fiction, meta cognition

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Authors: Nathalia Andrea Calderon Lesmes, Eduardo Barragan Parada, Diego Fernando Villegas Bermudez

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Spasticity in the plantiflexor muscles as a product of stroke (CVA-Cerebrovascular accident) restricts the mobility and independence of the affected people. Commonly, physiotherapists are in charge of manually performing the rehabilitation therapy known as Sustained Mechanical Stretching, rotating the affected foot of the patient in the sagittal plane. However, this causes a physical wear on the professional because it is a fatiguing movement. In this article, a mechanical device is developed to implement this rehabilitation therapy more efficiently. The device consists of a worm-crown mechanism that is driven by a crank to gradually rotate a platform in the sagittal plane of the affected foot, in order to achieve dorsiflexion. The device has a range of sagittal rotation up to 150° and has velcro located on the footplate that secures the foot. The design of this device was modeled by using CAD software and was checked structurally with a general purpose finite element software to be sure that the device is safe for human use. As a measurement system, a goniometer is used in the lateral part of the device and load cells are used to measure the force in order to determine the opposing torque exerted by the muscle. Load cells sensitivity is 1.8 ± 0.002 and has a repeatability of 0.03. Validation of the effectiveness of the device is measured by reducing the opposition torque and increasing mobility for a given patient. In this way, with a more efficient therapy, an improvement in the recovery of the patient's mobility and therefore in their quality of life can be achieved.

Keywords: biomechanics, mechanical device, plantiflexor muscles, rehabilitation, spastic hemiplegia, sustained mechanical stretching

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Authors: Merrick Lopez, Aashish Abraham, Melissa Egge, Marissa Hood, Jui Shah

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A 3 year old male with unknown medical history presented initially with encephalopathy, intubated for respiratory failure, and admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) with refractory shock. During resuscitation in the emergency department, he was found to be in severe metabolic acidosis with a pH of 7.03 and escalated on vasopressor drips for hypotension. His initial sodium was 174. He was noted to have burn injuries to his scalp, forehead, right axilla, bilateral arm creases and lower legs. He had rhabdomyolysis (initial creatinine kinase 5,430 U/L with peak levels of 62,340 normal <335 U/L), cardiac injury (initial troponin 88 ng/L with peak at 145 ng/L, normal <15ng/L), hypernatremia (peak 174, normal 140), hypocalcemia, liver injury, acute kidney injury, and neuronal loss on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Soft restraints and a shock collar were found in the home. He was critically ill for 8 days, but was gradually weaned off drips, extubated, and started on feeds. Discussion Electrical injury, specifically lightning injury is an uncommon but devastating cause of injury in pediatric patients. This patient with suspected abusive use of a dog shock collar presented similar to a lightning strike. Common entrance points include the hands and head, similar to our patient with linear wounds on his forehead. When current enters, it passes through tissues with the least resistance. Nerves, blood vessels, and muscles, have high fluid and electrolyte content and are commonly affected. Exit points are extremities: our child who had circumferential burns around his arm creases and ankles. Linear burns preferentially follow areas of high sweat concentration, and are thought to be due to vaporization of water on the skin’s surface. The most common cause of death from a lightning strike is due to cardiopulmonary arrest. The massive depolarization of the myocardium can result in arrhythmias and myocardial necrosis. The patient presented in cardiogenic shock with evident cardiac damage. Electricity going through vessels can lead to vaporization of intravascular water. This can explain his severe hypernatremia. He also sustained other internal organ injuries (adrenal glands, pancreas, liver, and kidney). Electrical discharge also leads to direct skeletal muscle injury in addition to prolonged muscular spasm. Rhabdomyolysis, the acute damage of muscle, leads to release of potentially toxic components into the circulation which could lead to acute renal failure. The patient had severe rhabdomyolysis and renal injury. Early hypocalcemia has been consistently demonstrated in patients with rhabdomyolysis. This was present in the patient and led to increased vasopressor needs. Central nervous system injuries are also common which can include encephalopathy, hypoxic injury, and cerebral infarction. The patient had evidence of brain injury as seen on MRI. Conclusion Electrical injuries due to lightning strikes and abusive use of a dog shock collar are rare, but can both present in similar ways with respiratory failure, shock, hypernatremia, rhabdomyolysis, brain injury, and multiorgan damage. Although rare, it is essential for early identification and prompt management for acute and chronic complications in these children.

Keywords: cardiogenic shock, dog shock collar, lightning strike, rhabdomyolysis

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Authors: Pradipta Chandra, Titas Bhattacharjee, Bhaskar Bhowmick

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The foundation of economy in India is primarily based on agriculture while this is the most neglected in the rural setting. More significantly, household women take part in agriculture with higher involvement. However, because of lower education of women they have limited access towards financial decisions, land ownership and technology but they have vital role towards the individual family level. There are limited studies on the institution-wise training barriers with the focus of gender disparity. The main purpose of this paper is to find out the factors of institution-wise training (non-formal education) barriers in technology transfer with the focus of participation of rural women in agriculture. For this study primary and secondary data were collected in the line of qualitative and quantitative approach. Qualitative data were collected by several field visits in the adjacent areas of Seva-Bharati, Seva Bharati Krishi Vigyan Kendra through semi-structured questionnaires. In the next level detailed field surveys were conducted with close-ended questionnaires scored on the seven-point Likert scale. Sample size was considered as 162. During the data collection the focus was to include women although some biasness from the end of respondents and interviewer might exist due to dissimilarity in observation, views etc. In addition to that the heterogeneity of sample is not very high although female participation is more than fifty percent. Data were analyzed using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) technique with the outcome of three significant factors of training barriers in technology adoption by farmers: (a) Failure of technology transfer training (TTT) comprehension interprets that the technology takers, i.e., farmers can’t understand the technology either language barrier or way of demonstration exhibited by the experts/ trainers. (b) Failure of TTT customization, articulates that the training for individual farmer, gender crop or season-wise is not tailored. (c) Failure of TTT generalization conveys that absence of common training methods for individual trainers for specific crops is more prominent at the community level. The central finding is that the technology transfer training method can’t fulfill the need of the farmers under an economically challenged area. The impact of such study is very high in the area of dry lateritic and resource crunch area of Jangalmahal under Paschim Medinipur district, West Bengal and areas with similar socio-economy. Towards the policy level decision this research may help in framing digital agriculture for implementation of the appropriate information technology for the farming community, effective and timely investment by the government with the selection of beneficiary, formation of farmers club/ farm science club etc. The most important research implication of this study lies upon the contribution towards the knowledge diffusion mechanism of the agricultural sector in India. Farmers may overcome the barriers to achieve higher productivity through adoption of modern farm practices. Corporates will be interested in agro-sector through investment under corporate social responsibility (CSR). The research will help in framing public or industry policy and land use pattern. Consequently, a huge mass of rural farm-women will be empowered and farmer community will be benefitted.

Keywords: dry lateritic zone, institutional barriers, technology transfer in India, farm-women participation

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Authors: Keltoum Chahour, Mickael Binois

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Due to a lack of standardization during the invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) procedure, the index is subject to many sources of uncertainties. In this paper, we investigate -through simulation- the effect of the (FFR) device position and configuration on the obtained value of the (FFR) fraction. For this purpose, we use computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in a 3D domain corresponding to a diseased arterial portion. The (FFR) pressure captor is introduced inside it with a given length and coefficient of bending to capture the (FFR) value. To get over the computational limitations, basically, the time of the simulation is about 2h 15min for one (FFR) value; we generate a Gaussian Process (GP) model for (FFR) prediction. The (GP) model indicates good accuracy and demonstrates the effective error in the measurement created by the random configuration of the pressure captor.

Keywords: fractional flow reserve, Gaussian processes, computational fluid dynamics, drift

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Authors: Dmitriy V. Chulkov

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Escalation of commitment is defined as continuation of a project after receiving negative information about it. While literature in management and psychology identified various factors contributing to escalation behavior, this phenomenon has received little analysis in economics, potentially due to the apparent irrationality of escalation. In this study, we present an economic model of escalation with asymmetric information in a principal-agent setup where the agents are responsible for a project selection decision and discover the outcome of the project before the principal. Our theoretical model complements the existing literature on several accounts. First, we link the incentive to escalate commitment to a project with the turnover decision by the manager. When a manager learns the outcome of the project and stops it that reveals that a mistake was made. There is an incentive to continue failing projects and avoid admitting the mistake. This incentive is enhanced when the agent may voluntarily resign from the firm before the outcome of the failing project is revealed, and thus not bear the full extent of reputation damage due to project failure. As long as some successful managers leave the firm for extraneous reasons, outside firms find it difficult to link failing projects with certainty to managers that left a firm. Second, we demonstrate that non-CEO managers have reputation concerns separate from those of the CEO, and thus may escalate commitment to projects they oversee, when such escalation can attenuate damage to reputation from impending project failure. Such incentive for escalation will be present for non-CEO managers if the CEO delegates responsibility for a project to a non-CEO executive. If reputation matters for promotion to the CEO, the incentive for a rising executive to escalate in order to protect reputation is distinct from that of a CEO. Third, our theoretical model is supported by empirical analysis of changes in the firm’s operations measured by the presence of discontinued operations at the time of turnover among the top four members of the top management team. Discontinued operations are indicative of termination of failing projects at a firm. The empirical results demonstrate that in a large dataset of over three thousand publicly traded U.S. firms for a period from 1993 to 2014 turnover by top executives significantly increases the likelihood that the firm discontinues operations. Furthermore, the type of turnover matters as this effect is strongest when at least one non-CEO member of the top management team leaves the firm and when the CEO departure is due to a voluntary resignation and not to a retirement or illness. Empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model and suggest that escalation of commitment is primarily observed in decisions by non-CEO members of the top management team.

Keywords: discontinued operations, escalation of commitment, executive turnover, top management teams

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Authors: Somayeh Khanjani, Samaneh Nabavi, Shirin Jalili

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Aluminum phosphide (ALP) is an inorganic phosphide used to control insects and is a highly effective insecticide and rodenticide used frequently to protect stored grain. Acute poisoning with this compound is common in some countries including India and Iran, and is a serious health problem. In Iran it was known as "rice tablet", for its use to preserve rice. Two kinds of rice tablets one being herbal while other containing 3g aluminum phosphide (AlP) are available for use in Iranian households to protect stored food grains from pests and rodents. The toxicity of Aluminum phosphide is attributed to the liberation of phosphine gas in contact with water or weak acid and is the major cause of poisoning and deaths. Rice tablet (Aluminum Phosphid) poisoning may be associated with serious and sometimes incurable complications. In 61.3% of patients were shown uniform ingestion. Vomiting was the most common symptoms reported by 96.4% patients. Agitation was reported in 36.9% and felling of thirsty in 27.9 %. Although many complications such as Hypotension, Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), Acute Renal Failure (ARF) AND Multi Organ Failure (MOF) were the common complications observed in these patients, but the most lethal complication was Cardiac Arrhythmias occurred in 36.9% of cases. Abdominal pain in 31.4% of the patients, nausea in 79.4% of the patients and 41.1% of the patients showed metabolic acidosis. Suicidal intention was the most common cause of poisoning leading to deaths in 18.6% of the patients. Aluminum phosphide can cause either elevation, decrease or no change in electrolytes, bicarbonate and blood glucose level. The possible mechanism for changes in blood glucose levels are complex and depend on the balance of factors which increase its concentration and those which reduce it. AlP poisoning has been postulated to stimulate cortisol which leads to increasing blood level of cortisol, also it may cause stimulation of glucagon, and Adrenaline secretion; in addition, it can inhibit insulin synthesis which may lead to hyperglycemia. Another suggested mechanism of hyperglycemia is rennin activity in some cases, an increase in magnesium level of plasma and that of tissues, and high phosphate level. Although hyperglycemia is most frequent in this poisoning and also is known as a marker of poor prognostic, hypoglycemia in aluminum phosphide poisoning is a rare finding which may be so dangerous. Patients showed sever hypotension and sever acidosis in addition to sever hypoglycemia. The presenting features of AlP intoxication are rapid onset of shock, severe metabolic acidosis, cardiac dysrhythmias and adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

Keywords: aluminum phosphide (ALP), rice tablet, poisoning, phosphine gas

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Authors: Djamila Meghraoui, Bachir Boudraa, Thouraya Meksen, M.Boudraa

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Parkinson's disease is a pathology that involves characteristic perturbations in patients’ voices. This paper describes a proposed method that aims to diagnose persons with Parkinson (PWP) by analyzing on line their voices signals. First, Thresholds signals alterations are determined by the Multi-Dimensional Voice Program (MDVP). Principal Analysis (PCA) is exploited to select the main voice principal componentsthat are significantly affected in a patient. The decision phase is realized by a Mul-tinomial Bayes (MNB) Classifier that categorizes an analyzed voice in one of the two resulting classes: healthy or PWP. The prediction accuracy achieved reaching 98.8% is very promising.

Keywords: Parkinson’s disease recognition, PCA, MDVP, multinomial Naive Bayes

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Authors: Seyyed Abbas Mojtabavi, Mojtaba Fatzaneh Moghadam, Masoud Mahdavi

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Steel Metal Shear Wall is one of the most common and widely used energy dissipation systems in structures, which is used today as a damping system due to the increase in the construction of metal structures. In the present study, the shear wall of the steel plate with dimensions of 5×3 m and thickness of 0.024 m was modeled with 2 floors of total height from the base level with finite element method in Abaqus software. The loading is done as a concentrated load at the upper point of the shear wall on the second floor based on step type buckle. The mesh in the model is applied in two directions of length and width of the shear wall, equal to 0.02 and 0.033, respectively, and the mesh in the models is of sweep type. Finally, it was found that the steel plate shear wall with cavity (CSPSW) compared to the SPSW model, S (Mises), Smax (In-Plane Principal), Smax (In-Plane Principal-ABS), Smax (Min Principal) increased by 53%, 70%, 68% and 43%, respectively. The presence of cavities has led to an increase in the estimated stresses, but their presence has caused critical stresses and critical deformations created to be removed from the inner surface of the shear wall and transferred to the desired sections (regular cavities) which can be suggested as a solution in seismic design and improvement of the structure to transfer possible damage during the earthquake and storm to the desired and pre-designed location in the structure.

Keywords: steel plate shear wall, abacus software, finite element method, , boundary element, seismic structural improvement, von misses stress

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Authors: Mohamed Mehdi Kadri

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The prediction of hot shale interval in Silurian formation in a well drilled vertically in Ahnet basin Is by logging Data (Resistivity, Gamma Ray, Sonic) with the calculation of total organic carbon (TOC) using ∆ log R Method. The aim of this paper is to present Physico-chemical Properties of Hot Shale using IR spectroscopy and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis; this mixture of measurements, evaluation and characterization show that the hot shale interval located in the lower of Silurian, the molecules adsorbed at the surface of shale sheet are significantly different from petroleum hydrocarbons this result are also supported with gas-liquid chromatography showed that the study extract is a hydroxypropyl.

Keywords: physic-chemical analysis, reservoirs characterization, sweet window evaluation, Silurian shale, Ahnet basin

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Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

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Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

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Authors: Khenenou Tarek, Benzaoui Hassina, Melizi Mohamed

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The diagnosis requires a background of current knowledge in the field and also complementary means in which the laboratory occupies the central place for a better investigation. A correct diagnosis allows to establish the most appropriate treatment as soon as possible and avoids both the economic losses associated with mortality and growth retardation often observed in poultry furthermore it may reduce the high cost of treatment. Epedemiologic survey, hematologic and histopathologic study’s are three aspects of diagnosis heavily used in both human and veterinary pathology and the advanced researches in human medicine would be exploited to be applied in veterinary medicine with given modification .Whereas, the diagnostic methods in the east of Algeria are limited to the clinical signs and necropsy finding. Therefore, the diagnosis is based simply on the success or the failure of the therapeutic methods (therapeutic diagnosis).

Keywords: chicken, diagnosis, hematology, histopathology

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Authors: Francesco Pisano

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Islam has been an important topic in Turkey’s institutional identity. Since the dawn of the Turkish Republic, at the end of the First World War, the new Turkish leadership was urged to deal with the religious heritage of the Sultanate. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey’s first President, led the country in a process of internal change, substantially modifying not merely the democratic stance of it, but also the way politics was addressing the Muslim faith. Islam was banned from the public sector of the society and was drastically marginalized to the mere private sphere of citizens’ lives. Headscarves were banned from institutional buildings together with any other religious practice, while the country was proceeding down a path of secularism and Westernization. This issue is demonstrated by the fact that even a new elected Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was initially barred from taking the institutional position, because of allegations that he had read a religious text while campaigning. Over the years, thanks to this initial internal shift, Turkey has often been seen by Western partners as one of the few countries that had managed to find a perfect balance between a democratic stance and an Islamic inherent nature. In the early 2000s, this led many academics to believe that Ankara could eventually have become the next European capital. Since then, the internal and external landscape of Turkey has drastically changed. Today, religion has returned to be an important point of reference for Turkish politics, considering also the failure of the European negotiations and the always more unstable external environment of the country. This paper wants to address this issue, looking at the important role religion has covered in the Turkish society and the way it has been politicized since the early years of the Republic. It will evolve from a more theoretical debate on secularism and the path of political westernization of Turkey under Ataturk’s rule to a more practical analysis of today’s situation, passing through the failure of Ankara’s accession into the EU and the current tense political relation with its traditional NATO allies. The final objective of this research, therefore, is not to offer a meticulous opinion on Turkey’s current international stance. This issue will be left entirely to the personal consideration of the reader. Rather, it will supplement the existing literature with a comprehensive and more structured analysis on the role Islam has played on Turkish politics since the early 1920s up until the political domestic revolution of the early 2000s, after the first electoral win of the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Keywords: democracy, Islam, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey

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Authors: Lei Zhou, Chao Li, Ruiqi Ren, Dan Li, Yali Wang, Daxin Ni, Zijian Feng, Qun Li

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Background: Since the first human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) case was reported in China on 31 March 2013, five epidemics have been observed in China through February 2013 and September 2017. Though the overall mortality rate of H7N9 has remained as high as around 40% throughout the five epidemics, the specific mortality rate in Mainland China varied by provinces. We conducted a descriptive analysis of mortality rates of H7N9 cases to explore the various severity features of the disease and then to provide clues of further analyses of potential factors associated with the severity of the disease. Methods: The data for analysis originated from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report and Surveillance System (NNIDRSS). The surveillance system and identification procedure for H7N9 infection have not changed in China since 2013. The definition of a confirmed H7N9 case is as same as previous reports. Mortality rates of H7N9 cases are described and compared by time and location of reporting, age and sex, and genetic features of H7N9 virus strains. Results: The overall mortality rate, the male and female specific overall rates of H7N9 is 39.6% (608/1533), 40.3% (432/1072) and 38.2% (176/461), respectively. There was no significant difference between the mortality rates of male and female. The age-specific mortality rates are significantly varied by age groups (χ²=38.16, p < 0.001). The mortality of H7N9 cases in the age group between 20 and 60 (33.17%) and age group of over 60 (51.16%) is much higher than that in the age group of under 20 (5.00%). Considering the time of reporting, the mortality rates of cases which were reported in the first (40.57%) and fourth (42.51%) quarters of each year are significantly higher than the mortality of cases which were reported in the second (36.02%) and third (27.27%) quarters (χ²=75.18, p < 0.001). The geographic specific mortality rates vary too. The mortality rates of H7N9 cases reported from the Northeast China (66.67%) and Westeast China (56.52%) are significantly higher than that of H7N9 cases reported from the remained area of mainland China. The mortality rate of H7N9 cases reported from the Central China is the lowest (34.38%). The mortality rates of H7N9 cases reported from rural (37.76%) and urban (38.96%) areas are similar. The mortality rate of H7N9 cases infected with the highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (48.15%) is higher than the rate of H7N9 cases infected with the low pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (37.57%), but the difference is not statistically significant. Preliminary analyses showed that age and some clinical complications such as respiratory failure, heart failure, and septic shock could be potential risk factors associated with the death of H7N9 cases. Conclusions: The mortality rates of H7N9 cases varied by age, sex, time of reporting and geographical location in mainland China. Further in-depth analyses and field investigations of the factors associated with the severity of H7N9 cases need to be considered.

Keywords: H7N9 virus, Avian Influenza, mortality, China

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Authors: Xuejiao Shao, Jianguo Chen, Xiaolong Fu

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In this paper, the elastoplastic strain correction factor computed by software of ANSYS was modified, and the fatigue usage factor in air was also corrected considering in water under reactor operating condition. The fatigue of key parts on control rod drive mechanisms was analyzed considering the influence of environmental fatigue caused by the coolant in the react pressure vessel. The elastoplastic strain correction factor was modified by analyzing thermal and mechanical loads separately referring the rules of RCC-M 2002. The new elastoplastic strain correction factor Ke(mix) is computed to replace the original Ke computed by the software of ANSYS when evaluating the fatigue produced by thermal and mechanical loads together. Based on the Ke(mix) and the usage cycle and fatigue design curves, the new range of primary plus secondary stresses was evaluated to obtain the final fatigue usage factor. The results show that the precision of fatigue usage factor can be elevated by using modified Ke when the amplify of the primary and secondary stress is large to some extent. One approach has been proposed for incorporating the environmental effects considering the effects of reactor coolant environments on fatigue life in terms of an environmental correction factor Fen, which is the ratio of fatigue life in air at room. To incorporate environmental effects into the RCCM Code fatigue evaluations, the fatigue usage factor based on the current Code design curves is multiplied by the correction factor. The contribution of environmental effects to results is discussed. Fatigue life decreases logarithmically with decreasing strain rate below 10%/s, which is insensitive to strain rate when temperatures below 100°C.

Keywords: environmental fatigue, usage factor, elastoplastic strain correction factor, environmental correction

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Authors: Navid Kaboudi, Ali Shayanfar

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Introduction: Feeding infants with safe milk from the beginning of their life is an important issue. Drugs which are used by mothers can affect the composition of milk in a way that is not only unsuitable, but also toxic for infants. Consuming permeable drugs during that sensitive period by mother could lead to serious side effects to the infant. Due to the ethical restrictions of drug testing on humans, especially women, during their lactation period, computational approaches based on structural parameters could be useful. The aim of this study is to develop mechanistic models to predict the M/P ratio of drugs during breastfeeding period based on their structural descriptors. Methods: Two hundred and nine different chemicals with their M/P ratio were used in this study. All drugs were categorized into two groups based on their M/P value as Malone classification: 1: Drugs with M/P>1, which are considered as high risk 2: Drugs with M/P>1, which are considered as low risk Thirty eight chemical descriptors were calculated by ACD/labs 6.00 and Data warrior software in order to assess the penetration during breastfeeding period. Later on, four specific models based on the number of hydrogen bond acceptors, polar surface area, total surface area, and number of acidic oxygen were established for the prediction. The mentioned descriptors can predict the penetration with an acceptable accuracy. For the remaining compounds (N= 147, 158, 160, and 174 for models 1 to 4, respectively) of each model binary regression with SPSS 21 was done in order to give us a model to predict the penetration ratio of compounds. Only structural descriptors with p-value<0.1 remained in the final model. Results and discussion: Four different models based on the number of hydrogen bond acceptors, polar surface area, and total surface area were obtained in order to predict the penetration of drugs into human milk during breastfeeding period About 3-4% of milk consists of lipids, and the amount of lipid after parturition increases. Lipid soluble drugs diffuse alongside with fats from plasma to mammary glands. lipophilicity plays a vital role in predicting the penetration class of drugs during lactation period. It was shown in the logistic regression models that compounds with number of hydrogen bond acceptors, PSA and TSA above 5, 90 and 25 respectively, are less permeable to milk because they are less soluble in the amount of fats in milk. The pH of milk is acidic and due to that, basic compounds tend to be concentrated in milk than plasma while acidic compounds may consist lower concentrations in milk than plasma. Conclusion: In this study, we developed four regression-based models to predict the penetration class of drugs during the lactation period. The obtained models can lead to a higher speed in drug development process, saving energy, and costs. Milk/plasma ratio assessment of drugs requires multiple steps of animal testing, which has its own ethical issues. QSAR modeling could help scientist to reduce the amount of animal testing, and our models are also eligible to do that.

Keywords: logistic regression, breastfeeding, descriptors, penetration

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Authors: Dishari Rakshit, Mitchell Gallagher

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The global landscape is witnessing a disconcerting surge in democratic backsliding, engendering concerns over the rise of autocratisation. This research demonstrates the intricate relationship between a nation's domestic propensity for autocratic governance and its trade relations with China. Giving prominence to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments, this study adopts a rigorous neorealist framework to discern the complexities of nations' economic interests amidst an anarchic milieu and how these interests may transcend steadfast adherence to democratic principles. The burgeoning bipolarity in the international political setting serves as a backdrop to our inquiry. To operationalise our hypothesis, we conduct a large-scale 'N' study, encompassing a comprehensive global dataset comprising countries' democracy indicators, total trade volume with China, and cumulative Chinese BRI investments over a substantial temporal expanse. By meticulously examining BRI signatories’, we aim to ascertain the potential accentuation of democratic backsliding among these nations. To test our empirical underpinning, we will validate our findings through cogent case studies. Our analysis adds to the scholarship on multifaceted interactions between trade dynamics and democratic governance within the fabric of the international political landscape. In its culmination, the paper addresses the question- has the erstwhile grandeur of bipolarity resurfaced in the contemporary global panorama? Concurrently, we explore the nexus between the ascendant wave of autocratisation as a by-product of the Beijing Consensus? Pertinent to policymakers, our discoveries stand poised to furnish a comprehensive grasp of the manifold implications arising from the deepening entanglements with China under the auspices of the BRI.

Keywords: democracy, autocracy, china, belt road initiative, international political economy

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Authors: Julian Wise

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Newcrest Mining is one of the world’s top five gold and rare earth mining organizations by production, reserves and market capitalization in the world. This paper elaborates on the data acquisition processes employed by Newcrest in collaboration with Fortune 500 listed organization, Insight Enterprises, to standardize machine learning solutions which process data from over a hundred thousand distributed Internet of Things (IoT) devices located at mine sites globally. Through the utilization of software architecture cloud technologies and edge computing, the technological developments enable for standardized processes of machine learning applications to influence the strategic optimization of mineral processing. Target objectives of the machine learning optimizations include time savings on mineral processing, production efficiencies, risk identification, and increased production throughput. The data acquired and utilized for predictive modelling is processed through edge computing by resources collectively stored within a data lake. Being involved in the digital transformation has necessitated the standardization software architecture to manage the machine learning models submitted by vendors, to ensure effective automation and continuous improvements to the mineral process models. Operating at scale, the system processes hundreds of gigabytes of data per day from distributed mine sites across the globe, for the purposes of increased improved worker safety, and production efficiency through big data applications.

Keywords: mineral technology, big data, machine learning operations, data lake

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Authors: Ashwini Bhosale, Yogesh Patil

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Urban areas are extremely complicated environmental settings, where health and well-being of an individual and population are governed by a large number of bio-physical, socio-economical, and inclusive aspects. Although poverty and slums are the prime issues under UN-HABITAT agenda of environmental sustainability, slums, the inevitable part of urban environment, have not accounted for inclusive city planning. Developing nations, where about 60 % of world slum population resides, are increasingly under pressure to uplift the urban poor, particularly slum dwellers. From a point of advantage, these new slum redevelopment projects have succeeded in providing legitimized and more permanent and stable shelter for the low income people, as well as individualized sanitation and water supply. However, they unfortunately follow the “one type fits all" approach and exhibit no response to the climatic design needs on Mumbai. The thesis focuses on the study of environmental perspectives in the context of Daylight, natural ventilation and social aspects in the design process of Slum-Rehabilitation schemes (SRS) – case of Mumbai. It attempts to investigate into Indian approaches about SRS and concludes upon strategies to be incorporated in SRS to improve the overall SRS environment. The main objectives of this work have been to identify and study the spatial configuration and possibilities of daylight and natural ventilation in Slum Rehabilitated buildings. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated by comparison with the daylight luminance simulated by lighting software, namely ECOTECT, and with measurements under real skies whereas for the ventilation study purpose, software named FLOW DESIGN was used.

Keywords: urban environment, slum-rehabilitation, daylight, natural-ventilation, architectural consequences

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Authors: Vikram Munjal, Harpreet Munjal

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A few years ago we could hardly think of Libraries' strategic plan that includes the bold and amazing prediction of a mostly digital environment for a library system. However, sheer hard work by the engineers, academicians, and librarians made it feasible. However, it requires huge expenditure and now a day‘s spending for electronic resources (e-resources) have been growing much more rapidly than have the materials budgets of which such resources are usually a part. And many libraries are spending a huge amount on e-resources. Libraries today are in the midst of a profound shift toward reliance on e-resources, and this reliance seems to have deepened in recent years as libraries have shed paper journal subscriptions to help pay for online access. This has been exercised only to cater user behavior and attitudes that seem to be changing even more quickly in this dynamic scenario.

Keywords: radio frequency identification, management, scanning, barcodes, checkout and tags

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Authors: Surya Prasad Sharma, Suyash Katdare, Syed Ainul Hussain

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Human-induced factors contributed to the population decline of crocodylians in India which became evident by the mid-20th century when authorities forewarned the extinction risk for the crocodile and proposed regulation in the crocodile trade. The proposed action led to the enactment of national and international wildlife regulations to prohibit the trade-in of crocodile skins and parts. Subsequently, conservation translocation programs were initiated to restore the species in the wild through a 'head-start' approach. In India, the crocodile conservation program, which began in the early 1970s, has been one of India's longest-running conservation initiatives. The gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) population has benefitted, and the gharial number increased rapidly owing to these efforts. The immediate risk of extinction was averted as the gharial has recovered due to decades-long cumulative conservation efforts, the consideration of the genetic for monitoring the recovery of the recovered populations is still lacking. Hence, we assessed the genetic diversity of the Girwa gharial population in India using six polymorphic nuclear microsatellites loci and mitochondrial control region. The number of alleles per loci ranged between 2 to 5, and the allelic richness (Ar) was 2.67 ± 0.49, and the observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosities were 0.42 ± 0.08 and 0.42 ± 0.09, respectively. The M-ratio yielded a value of (0.41 ± 0.16) lower than critical M, suggesting a genetic bottleneck in the Girwa population. We observed more mitochondrial control region haplotypes in the Girwa population than previously reported in the largest gharial population in the Chambal River. Overall, our study indicates that genetic diversity remains low despite the recovery in the Girwa population. Hence, we recommend a range-wide genetic assessment of gharial populations using high-throughput techniques to identify the source population and plan future translocation programs.

Keywords: conservation translocation, recovery, crocodile, bottleneck

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Authors: H. A. Algahtani, A. S. Khan, O. Alzahrani, N. Hussein, M. A. Khan, Loudhi Y. I. Soliman

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Objective: To report on the Saudi experience (developing country) of neurological complications from bariatric surgery. The literature on the subject is reviewed. Method: This is a cross sectional study done in King Abdul Aziz Medical City Jeddah, WR, where we reviewed all charts of the patients who underwent bariatric surgery between January 1st, 2009 to December 31st , 2014. Personal and clinical data including age, sex, BMI, comorbidities, type of procedure, duration of stay in hospital, complications and postoperative follow up were collected. In addition follow up visit and remote complication if present were collected. All patients with neurological complications were reviewed in details including their clinical examination, laboratory and imaging results, treatment and prognosis. This report is essentially descriptive with no statistical analysis performed. Results: Fifteen cases were collected in this study (3%). Axonal polyneuropathy was the most frequent neurological complica¬tion, but cases of Wernicke syndrome, vitamin B12 deficiency, Guillain-Barre syndrome and cupper deficiency were also identified. Fourteen patients (93.3%) had full recovery from the neurological signs and symptoms but unfortunately one patient died. Conclusion: Bariatric surgery, a procedure that is continuously increasing in popularity, is not free of potential neurological complications. A clear education, guidelines and follow-up program should be planned and practiced. Facts should be clearly presented to the individual undergoing this type of surgery. Although a clear cause-effect relation cannot be established for the present cases, the cumulative literature on the subject makes it important to warn the patient of the potential risks of this procedure.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, neurological complications, neuropathy, Wenicke syndrome

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Authors: Jennifer E Simpson

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Background and purpose: The ubiquitous use of the Internet and social media by children and young people has had a dual effect. The first is to open a world of possibilities and promise that is characterized by the ability to consume and create content, connect with friends, explore and experiment. The second relates to risks such as unsolicited requests, sexual exploitation, cyberbullying and commercial exploitation. This duality poses significant difficulties for a generation of foster carers and social workers who have no childhood experience to draw on in terms of growing up using the Internet, social media and digital devices. This presentation is concerned with the findings of a small qualitative study about the use of digital devices and the Internet by care-experienced young people to stay in touch with their families and the way this was managed by foster carers and social workers using specific parental mediation strategies. The findings highlight that restrictive strategies were used by foster carers and endorsed by social workers. An argument is made for an approach that develops a series of balanced solutions that move foster carers from such restrictive approaches to those that are grounded in co-use and are interpretive in nature. Methods: Using a purposive sampling strategy, 12 triads consisting of care-experienced young people (aged 13-18 years), their foster carers and allocated social workers were recruited. All respondents undertook a semi-structured interview, with the young people detailing what social media apps and other devices they used to contact their families via an Ecomap. The foster carers and social workers shared details of the methods and approaches they used to manage digital devices and the Internet in general. Data analysis was performed using a Framework analytic method to explore the various attitudes, as well as complementary and contradictory perspectives of the young people, their foster carers and allocated social workers. Findings: The majority of foster carers made use of parental mediation strategies that erred on the side of typologies that included setting rules and regulations (restrictive), ad-hoc checking of a young person’s behavior and device (monitoring), and software used to limit or block access to inappropriate websites (technical). It was noted that minimal use was made by foster carers of parental mediation strategies that included talking about content (active/interpretive) or sharing Internet activities (co-use). Amongst the majority of the social workers, they also had a strong preference for restrictive approaches. Conclusions and implications: Trepidations on the part of both foster carers and social workers about the use of digital devices and the Internet meant that the parental strategies used were weighted more towards restriction, with little use made of approaches such as co-use and interpretative. This lack of balance calls for solutions that are grounded in co-use and an interpretive approach, both of which can be achieved through training and support, as well as wider policy change.

Keywords: parental mediation strategies, risk, children in state care, online safety

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