Search results for: meteorological events

Authors: Yun Wang, Ruoyu Wang, Tuo Chen, Guangxiu Liu, Guodong Chen, Wei Zhang

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in China. China has the world's second largest tuberculosis epidemic (after India). Xinjiang almost has the highest annual attendance rate of TB in China, and the province is also famous because of its severe dust storms. The epidemic timing starts in February and ends in July, and the dust storm mainly distribute throughout the spring and early summer, which strongly indicate a close linkage between causative agent of TB and dust storm events. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly indentified. By comparing the information on cases of TB from Centers for Disease Control of China annual reports with dust storm atmosphere datasets, we constructed the relationship between the large scale annual occurrence of TB in Xinjiang, a Northwest province of China, and dust storm occurrence. Regional atmospheric indexes of dust storm based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and the climate disaster: the onset of epidemics and the dust storm defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean year. This study is the first that provides a clear demonstration of connections that exist between TB epidemics and dust storm events in China. The development of this study will undoubtedly help early warning for tuberculosis epidemic onset in China and help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control TB disease in Norwest China.

Keywords: dust storm, tuberculosis, Xinjiang province, epidemic

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Authors: Veronika Antoniou, Rene Carraz, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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The Green Urban Lab took the form of public installations that were placed at various locations in four cities in Cyprus. These installations - through which a series of events, activities, workshops and research took place - were the main tools in regenerating a series of urban public spaces in Cyprus. The purpose of this project was to identify issues and opportunities related to public space and to offer guidelines on how design and participatory democracy improvements could strengthen civil society, while raising the quality of the urban public scene. Giant inflatable structures were injected in important urban fragments in order to accommodate series of events. The design and playful installation generated a wide community engagement. The fluid presence of the installations acted as a catalyst for social interaction. They were accessed and viewed effortlessly and surprisingly, creating opportunities to rediscover public spaces.

Keywords: bottom-up initiatives, creativity, public space, social innovation, urban environments

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Authors: Sa-Kil Kim, Jang-Soo Lee

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On March 31, 1993, a severe fire accident took place in a nuclear power plant located in Narora in North India. The event involved a major fire in the turbine building of NAPS unit-1 and resulted in a total loss of power to the unit for 17 hours. In addition, there was a heavy ingress of smoke in the control room, mainly through the intake of the ventilation system, forcing the operators to vacate the control room. The Narora fire accident provides us lessons indicating that operators could lose their mind and predictable behaviors during a fire. After the Fukushima accident, which resulted from a natural disaster, unanticipated external events are also required to be prepared and controlled for the ultimate safety of nuclear power plants. From last year, our research team has developed a test and evaluation facility that can simulate external events such as an earthquake and fire based on the operators’ real-sense. As one of the results of the project, we proposed a unit real-sense-based facility that can simulate fire events in a control room for utilizing a test-bed of human factor validation. The test-bed has the operator’s workstation shape and functions to simulate fire conditions such as smoke, heat, and auditory alarms in accordance with the prepared fire scenarios. Furthermore, the test-bed can be used for the operators’ training and experience.

Keywords: human behavior in fire, human factors validation, nuclear power plants, real-sense-based fire simulation

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Authors: Pinel Sebastien, Bourrin François, De Madron Du Rieu Xavier, Ludwig Wolfgang, Arnau Pedro

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Heavy precipitation constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Research has investigated the relationship between the states of the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere with the precipitation for short temporal windows. However, at a larger temporal scale, the precursor signals of heavy rainfall in the sea and atmosphere have drawn little attention. Moreover, despite ongoing improvements in numerical weather prediction, the medium-term forecasting of rainfall events remains a difficult task. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of early-spring environmental parameters on the following autumnal heavy precipitations. Hence, we develop a machine learning model to predict extreme autumnal rainfall with a 6-month lead time over the Spanish Catalan coastal area, based on i) the sea pattern (main current-LPC and Sea Surface Temperature-SST) at the mesoscale scale, ii) 4 European weather teleconnection patterns (NAO, WeMo, SCAND, MO) at synoptic scale, and iii) the hydrological regime of the main local river (Rhône River). The accuracy of the developed model classifier is evaluated via statistical analysis based on classification accuracy, logarithmic and confusion matrix by comparing with rainfall estimates from rain gauges and satellite observations (CHIRPS-2.0). Sensitivity tests are carried out by changing the model configuration, such as sea SST, sea LPC, river regime, and synoptic atmosphere configuration. The sensitivity analysis suggests a negligible influence from the hydrological regime, unlike SST, LPC, and specific teleconnection weather patterns. At last, this study illustrates how public datasets can be integrated into a machine learning model for heavy rainfall prediction and can interest local policies for management purposes.

Keywords: extreme hazards, sensitivity analysis, heavy rainfall, machine learning, sea-atmosphere modeling, precipitation forecasting

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Authors: Abdul Fatah, Naveenchandra Acharya, Vamshi Krishna, T. Shivaprasad, Ramesh Ramayya

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Background: Significant number of patients with bladder outlet obstruction due to BPH are on anti-platelets and anticoagulants. Prostate surgery in this group of patients either in the form of TURP or Open prostatectomy is associated with increased risk of bleeding complications requiring transfusions, packing of the prostatic fossa or ligation or embolization of internal iliac arteries. Withholding of antiplatelets and anticoagulants may be associated with cardiac and other complications. Efficacy of Thulium Laser in the above group of patients was evaluated in terms of peri-operative, postoperative and delayed bleeding complications as well as cardiac events in peri-operative and immediate postoperative period. Methods: 217 patients with a mean age of 68.8 years were enrolled between March 2009 and March 2013 (36 months), and treated for BPH with ThuLEP. Every patient was evaluated at base line according to: Digital Rectal Examination (DRE), prostate volume, Post-Voided volume (PVR), International Prostate Symptoms Score (I-PSS), PSA values, urine analysis and urine culture, uroflowmetry. The post operative complications in the form of drop in hemoglobin level, transfusion rates, post –operative cardiac events within a period of 30 days, delayed hematuria and events like deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism were noted. Results: Our data showed a better post-operative outcome in terms of, postoperative bleeding requiring intervention 7 (3.2%), transfusion rate 4 (1.8%) and cardiac events within a period of 30 days 4(1.8%), delayed hematuria within 6 months 2(0.9 %) compared other series of prostatectomies. Conclusion: The thulium LASER prostatectomy is a safe and effective option for patients with cardiac comorbidties and those patients who are on antiplatelet agents and anticoagulants. The complication rate is less as compared to larger series reported with open and transurethral prostatectomies.

Keywords: thulium laser, prostatectomy, antiplatelet agents, bleeding

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Authors: Elsadig Naseraddeen Ahmed Mohamed

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In contrast to the uncertainty and complementary principle, it will be shown in the present paper that the probability of the simultaneous occupation event of any definite values of coordinates by any definite values of momentum and energy at any definite instance of time can be described by a binary definite function equivalent to the difference between their numbers of occupation and evacuation epochs up to that time and also equivalent to the number of exchanges between those occupation and evacuation epochs up to that times modulus two, these binary definite quantities can be defined at all point in the time’s real-line so it form a binary signal represent a complete mechanical description of physical reality, the time of these exchanges represent the boundary of occupation and evacuation epochs from which we can calculate these binary signals using the fact that the time of universe events actually extends in the positive and negative of time’s real-line in one direction of extension when these number of exchanges increase, so there exists noninvertible transformation matrix can be defined as the matrix multiplication of invertible rotation matrix and noninvertible scaling matrix change the direction and magnitude of exchange event vector respectively, these noninvertible transformation will be called actual transformation in contrast to information transformations by which we can navigate the universe’s events transformed by actual transformations backward and forward in time’s real-line, so these information transformations will be derived as an elements of a group can be associated to their corresponded actual transformations. The actual and information model of the universe will be derived by assuming the existence of time instance zero before and at which there is no coordinate occupied by any definite values of momentum and energy, and then after that time, the universe begin its expanding in spacetime, this assumption makes the need for the existence of Laplace’s demon who at one moment can measure the positions and momentums of all constituent particle of the universe and then use the law of classical mechanics to predict all future and past of universe’s events, superfluous, we only need for the establishment of our analog to digital converters to sense the binary signals that determine the boundaries of occupation and evacuation epochs of the definite values of coordinates relative to its origin by the definite values of momentum and energy as present events of the universe from them we can predict approximately in high precision it's past and future events.

Keywords: binary-signal mechanics, actual-information model of the universe, actual-transformation, information-transformation, uncertainty principle, Laplace's demon

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Authors: Rama Munajat

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Discourse information levels may be viewed from either a background-foreground distinction or a multi-level perspective, and cross-linguistic studies on this area suggest that each information level is marked by a specific linguistic device. In this sense, Sundanese, spoken in Indonesia’s West Javanese Province, further differentiates the background and foreground information into ordinary and significant types. This paper will report an ongoing shift from particle-to-active voice marking in the way Sundanese signals foregrounding events. The shift relates to decades of contact with Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesia’s official language) and linguistic compatibility between the two surface marking strategies. Representative data analyzed include three groups of short stories in both Sundanese and Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian) published in three periods: before 1945, 1965-2006, and 2016-2019. In the first group of Sundanese data, forward-moving events dominantly appear in particle KA (Kecap Anteuran, word-accompanying) constructions, where the KA represents different particles that co-occur with a special group of verbs. The second group, however, shows that the foregrounded events are more frequently described in active-voice forms with a subject-predicate (SP) order. Subsequently, the third offers stronger evidence for the use of the SP structure. As for the Indonesian data, the foregrounding events in the first group occur in verb-initial and passive-voice constructions, while in the second and third, the events more frequently appear in active-voice structures (subject-predicate sequence). The marking shift above suggests a structural influence from Indonesian, stemmed from generational differences among authors of the Sundanese short stories, particularly related to their education and language backgrounds. The first group of short stories – published before 1945 or before Indonesia's independence from Dutch – were written by native speakers of Sundanese who spoke Indonesian as a foreign language and went through the Dutch education system. The second group of authors, on the other hand, represents a generation of Sundanese native speakers who spoke Indonesian as a second language. Finally, the third group consists of authors who are bilingual speakers of both Sundanese and Indonesian. The data suggest that the last two groups of authors completed the Indonesian education system. With these, the use of subject-predicate sequences to denote foregrounding events began to appear more frequently in the second group and then became more dominant in those of the third. The coded data also signify that cohesion, coherence, and pragmatic purposes in Particle KA constructions are intact in their respective active-voice structure counterparts. For instance, the foregrounding events in Particle KA constructions occur in Sentence-initial KA and Pre-verbal KA forms, whereas those in the active-voice are described in Subject-Predicate (SP) and Zero-Subject active-voice patterns. Cross-language data further demonstrate that the Sentence-initial KA and the SP active-voice structures each contain an overt noun phrase (NP) co-referential with one of the entities introduced in a preceding context. Similarly, the pre-verbal KA and Zero-Subject active-voice patterns have a deleted noun phrase unambiguously referable to the only one entity previously mentioned. The presence and absence of an NP inform a pragmatic strategy to place prominence on topic/given and comment/new information, respectively.

Keywords: discourse analysis, foregrounding marking, pragmatics, language contact

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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This paper introduces an original method for guaranteed estimation of the accuracy of an ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers. The solution was obtained as a finite closed set of alternative hypotheses, which contains an object of classification with a probability of not less than the specified value. Thus, the classification is represented by a set of hypothetical classes. In this case, the smaller the cardinality of the discrete set of hypothetical classes is, the higher is the classification accuracy. Experiments have shown that if the cardinality of the classifiers ensemble is increased then the cardinality of this set of hypothetical classes is reduced. The problem of the guaranteed estimation of the accuracy of an ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers is relevant in the multichannel classification of target events in C-OTDR monitoring systems. Results of suggested approach practical usage to accuracy control in C-OTDR monitoring systems are present.

Keywords: Lipschitz classifiers, confidence set, C-OTDR monitoring, classifiers accuracy, classifiers ensemble

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Authors: Stefan Bauer, Josef Frysak

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According to the scientific information management literature, the improper use of information technology (e.g. personal computers) by employees are one main cause for operational and information security loss events. Therefore, organizations implement information security awareness programs to increase employees’ awareness to further prevention of loss events. However, in many cases these information security awareness programs consist of conventional delivery methods like posters, leaflets, or internal messages to make employees aware of information security policies. We assume that a viral information security awareness video might be more effective medium than conventional methods commonly used by organizations. The purpose of this research is to develop a viral video artifact to improve employee security behavior concerning information technology.

Keywords: information security awareness, delivery methods, viral videos, employee security behavior

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Authors: Abdelghani Qadem

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Urbanization in Morocco has ushered in profound shifts in hydrological dynamics, presenting a spectrum of challenges and avenues for sustainable water management. This abstract delves into the nuances of urban hydrology in Morocco, spotlighting the ramifications of rapid urban expansion, the imprint of climate change, and the imperative for cohesive water management strategies. The swift urban sprawl across Morocco has engendered a surge in impermeable surfaces, reshaping the natural hydrological cycle and amplifying quandaries such as urban inundations and water scarcity. Moreover, the specter of climate change looms large, heralding alterations in precipitation regimes and a heightened frequency of extreme meteorological events, thus compounding the hydrological conundrum. However, amidst these challenges, urban hydrology in Morocco also unfolds vistas of innovation and sustainability. The integration of green infrastructure, encompassing solutions like permeable pavements and vegetated roofs, emerges as a linchpin in ameliorating the hydrological imbalances wrought by urbanization, fostering infiltration, and curbing surface runoff. Additionally, embracing the tenets of water-sensitive urban design promises to fortify water efficiency and resilience in urban landscapes. Effectively navigating urban hydrology in Morocco mandates a cross-disciplinary approach that interweaves urban planning, water resource governance, and climate resilience strategies. A collaborative ethos, bridging governmental entities, academic institutions, and grassroots communities, assumes paramount importance in crafting and executing comprehensive solutions that grapple with the intricate interplay of urbanization, hydrology, and climate dynamics. In summation, confronting the labyrinthine challenges of urban hydrology in Morocco necessitates proactive strides toward fostering sustainable urban growth and bolstering resilience to climate vagaries. By embracing cutting-edge technologies and embracing an ethos of integrated water management, Morocco can forge a path toward a more water-secure and resilient urban future.

Keywords: urban hydrology, Morocco, urbanization, climate change, water management, green infrastructure, sustainable development

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Authors: Agnese Zviedre

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In 2010 Latvia ratified the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which states that the state will recognize the importance of accessibility to the physical, social, and cultural environment. Nevertheless, accessibility of art and culture in Latvia has become a focal point only since 2020. A study on the impact of cultural consumption and participation done by the Latvian Academy of Culture and the research center “SKDS” results show that art and cultural institutions lack knowledge and understanding of needs and required accessibility measures for people with disabilities to participate in cultural and art events. At the same time, even if art institutions want to create accessible events for people with diverse bodies and minds, many barriers exist, such as budget, lack of time, and lack of knowledge. Even though disability is still largely invisible in the public space, due to recent public campaigns and awareness of the need for accessibility, the media and society are starting to speak about disability as a social issue, not a medical one. Thus, this paper focuses on the first-hand experience of implementing different Western accessibility guidelines and working with communities as a production manager for the multidisciplinary exhibition project “Invisible Lives” in Riga and curator of the education program of Riga Photography Biennial’s 2022 Central Event - Exhibition “Screen Age III: Still Life”. Analyzing two events from the Disability studies perspective, this paper focuses on working with existing knowledge and budget to achieve accessibility.

Keywords: accessibility, contemporary art, curatorial practices, disability studies

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Authors: Ryan S. Johnson, Raeesa Moolla

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Airports are known air pollution hotspots due to the variety of fuel driven activities that take place within the confines of them. As such, people working within airports are particularly vulnerable to exposure of hazardous air pollutants, including hundreds of aromatic hydrocarbons, and more specifically a group of compounds known as BTEX (viz. benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylenes). These compounds have been identified as being harmful to human and environmental health. Through the use of passive and active sampling methods, the spatial and temporal variability of benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations within the international airport was investigated. Two sampling campaigns were conducted. In order to quantify the temporal variability of concentrations within the airport, an active sampling strategy using the Synspec Spectras Gas Chromatography 955 instrument was used. Furthermore, a passive sampling campaign, using Radiello Passive Samplers was used to quantify the spatial variability of these compounds. In addition, meteorological factors are known to affect the dispersal and dilution of pollution. Thus a Davis Pro-Weather 2 station was utilised in order to measure in situ weather parameters (viz. wind speed, wind direction and temperature). Results indicated that toluene varied on a daily, temporal scale considerably more than other concentrations. Toluene further exhibited a strong correlation with regards to the meteorological parameters, inferring that toluene was affected by these parameters to a greater degree than the other pollutants. The passive sampling campaign revealed BTEXtotal concentrations ranged between 12.95 – 124.04 µg m-3. From the results obtained it is clear that benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations are heterogeneously spatially dispersed within the airport. Due to the slow wind speeds recorded over the passive sampling campaign (1.13 m s-1.), the hotspots were located close to the main concentration sources. The most significant hotspot was located over the main apron of the airport. It is recommended that further, extensive investigations into the seasonality of hazardous air pollutants at the airport is necessary in order for sound conclusions to be made about the temporal and spatial distribution of benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations within the airport.

Keywords: airport, air pollution hotspot, BTEX concentrations, meteorology

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Authors: Chawarat Rotejanaprasert, Andrew Lawson

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Early detection of unusual health events depends on the ability to detect rapidly any substantial changes in disease, thus facilitating timely public health interventions. To assist public health practitioners to make decisions, statistical methods are adopted to assess unusual events in real time. We introduce a surveillance Kullback-Leibler (SKL) measure for timely detection of disease outbreaks for small area health data. The detection methods are compared with the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate (SCPO) within the framework of Bayesian hierarchical Poisson modeling and applied to a case study of a group of respiratory system diseases observed weekly in South Carolina counties. Properties of the proposed surveillance techniques including timeliness and detection precision are investigated using a simulation study.

Keywords: Bayesian, spatial, temporal, surveillance, prospective

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Authors: Shunichiro Morishita

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This study examines the factors for attracting foreign guests in the Japanese lodging industry and discusses some measures taken for accepting foreign guests. It reviews three different accommodation providers acclaimed highly by foreign guests, Yamashiroya, Sawanoya and Fuji-Hakone Guest House, and identifies their characteristics. The common points for attracting foreign guests were: 1) making the best use of the old facilities, 2) multilingual signs, guidance and websites, 3) necessary and sufficient communication in English, 4) events and opportunities to experience Japanese culture, 5) omotenashi, warm and homely Japanese hospitality. These findings indicate that foreign guests’ dissatisfaction level can be decreased through internationalization utilizing ICT and by offering multilingual support. On the other hand, their satisfaction level can be increased by encouraging interaction with other guests and local Japanese people, providing events and opportunities to experience Japanese culture and omotenashi, home-style Japanese hospitality.

Keywords: hospitality management, foreign guests, Japanese lodging industry, Omotenashi

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Authors: Kamal Kithsiri Karunadasa Hewawasam Revulge

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This paper is an interpretative historical analysis of Australian migration laws that examines asylum and refugee policies and attitudes in Australia. It looks at major turning points in Australian migration history, and in doing so, the researcher reviewed relevant literature on the aspects crucial to highlighting the current trend of Australian migration policies. The data was collected using secondary data from official government sources, including annual reports, media releases on immigration, inquiry reports, statistical information, and other available literature to identify critical historical events that significantly affected the systematic developments of asylum seekers and refugee policies in Australia and to look at the historical trends of official thinking. A reliance on using these official sources is justified as those are the most convincing sources to analyse the historical events in Australia. Additional literature provides us with critical analyses of the behaviour and culture of the Australian immigration administration. The analytical framework reviewed key Australian Government immigration policies since British colonization and the settlement era of 1787–the 1850s and to the present. The fundamental basis for doing so is that past events and incidents offer us clues and lessons relevant to the present day. Therefore, providing a perspective on migration history in Australia helps analyse how current policymakers' strategies developed and changed over time. Attention is also explicitly focused on Australian asylum and refugee policy internationally, as it helped to broaden the analysis. The finding proved a link between past events and adverse current Australian government policies towards asylum seekers and refugees. It highlighted that Australia's current migration policies are part of a carefully and deliberately planned pattern that arose from the occupation of Australia by early British settlers. In this context, the remarkable point is that the historical events of taking away children from their Australian indigenous parents, widely known as the 'stolen generation' reflected a model of assimilation, or a desire to absorb other cultures into Australian society by fully adopting the settlers' language, their culture, and losing indigenous people's traditions. Current Australian policies towards migrants reflect the same attitude. Hence, it could be argued that policies and attitudes towards asylum seekers and refugees, particularly so-called 'boat people' to some extent, still reflect Australia's earlier colonial and 'white Australia' history.

Keywords: migration law, refugee law, international law, administrative law

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Authors: Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal

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Contributing about 18% to India’s Gross Domestic Product, the agricultural sector plays a significant role in the Indian rural economy. Despite being the primary source of livelihood for more than half of India’s population, most of them are marginal and small farmers facing several challenges due to agro-climatic shocks. Climate change is expected to increase the risk in the regions that are highly agriculture dependent. With systematic and scientific evidence of changes in rainfall, temperature and other extreme climate events, migration started to emerge as a survival strategy for the farm households. In this backdrop, our present study aims to combine the two strands of literature and attempts to explore whether migration is the only adaptation strategy for the farmers once they experience crop failures due adverse climatic condition. Combining the temperature and rainfall information from the weather data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department with the household level panel data on Indian states belonging to the Eastern and Semi-Arid Tropics regions from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) collected by the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics, we form a rich panel data for the years 2010-2014. A Recursive Econometric Model is used to establish the three-way nexus between climate change-yield-migration while addressing the role of irrigation and local non-farm income diversification. Using Three Stage Least Squares Estimation method, we find that climate change induced yield loss is a major driver of farmers’ migration. However, irrigation and local level non-farm income diversification are found to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on migration. Based on our empirical results, we suggest for enhancing irrigation facilities and making local non-farm income diversification opportunities available to increase farm productivity and thereby reduce farmers’ migration.

Keywords: climate change, migration, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

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Authors: Sandipika Gupta

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Objective: Due to admirably low 30-day mortality rates for paediatric cardiac surgery, it is now pertinent to turn towards more intermediate-length outcomes such as morbidities closely associated with these surgeries. One such morbidity, major adverse events (MAE) comprises a group of adverse outcomes associated with paediatric cardiac surgery (e.g. cardiac arrest, major haemorrhage). Methods: This is a retrospective study that analysed the incidence and impact of MAE which was the primary outcome in the UK population. The data was collected in 5 centres between October 2015 and June 2017, amassing 3090 surgical episodes. The incidence and risk factors for MAE, were assessed through descriptive statistical analyses and multivariate logistic regression. The secondary outcomes of life status at 6 months and the length of hospital stay were also evaluated to understand the impact of MAE on patients. Results: Out of 3090 episodes, 134 (4.3%) had a postoperative MAE. The majority of the episodes were in: neonates (47%, P<0.001), high-risk cardiac diagnosis groups (20.1%, P<0.001), episodes with longer 5mes on the bypass (72.4%, P<0.001) and urgent surgeries (57.9%, P<0.001). Episodes reporting MAE also reported longer lengths of stay in hospital (29 days vs 9 days, P<0.001). Furthermore, patients experiencing MAE were at a higher risk of mortality at the 6-month life status check (mortality rates: 29.2% vs 2%, P<0.001).Conclusions: Key risk factors were identified. An important negative impact of MAE was found for patients. The identified risk factors could be used to profile and flag at-risk patients. Monitoring of MAE rates and closer investigation into the care pathway before and after individual MAEs in children’s heart units may lead to a reduction in these terrible events.

Keywords:

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Authors: Anil Giri, Kyle Lovercamp, Sankalp Sharma

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Farm level incomes fluctuate significantly due to extreme weather events such as drought. In the light of recent extreme weather events it is important to understand the implications of extreme weather events, flood and drought, on farm level incomes. This study examines the variation in farm level incomes for the United States in drought and no- drought years. Factoring heterogeneity in different enterprises (crop, livestock) and geography this paper analyzes the impact of drought in farm level incomes at state and national level. Livestock industry seems to be affected more by the lag in production of input feed for production, crops, as preliminary results show. Furthermore, preliminary results also show that while crop producers are not affected much due to drought, as price and quantity effect worked on opposite direction with same magnitude, that was not the case for livestock and horticulture enterprises. Results also showed that even when price effect was not as high the crop insurance component helped absorb much of shock for crop producers. Finally, the effect was heterogeneous for different states more on the coastal states compared Midwest region. This study should generate a lot of interest from policy makers across the world as some countries are actively seeking to increase subsidies in their agriculture sector. This study shows how subsidies absorb the shocks for one enterprise more than others. Finally, this paper should also be able to give an insight to economists to design/recommend policies such that it is optimal given the production level of different enterprises in different countries.

Keywords: farm level income, United States, crop, livestock

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Authors: Jiří Barta, Oldřich Svoboda

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This article deals with the issue of practical training of the management staff during emergency events in the frame of critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure represents one of the possible targets of destructive activities as well as operational accidents and incidents which can seriously influence the functioning of the system of ensuring the basic needs of the inhabitants. Therefore, protection of critical infrastructure and training of the staff in dealing with emergencies becomes a broadly discussed topic. Nowadays, the market offers a wide range of simulation tools which proclaim that they are suitable for practical training of management staff and completing their tasks. Another group of programs declares that they are not primarily designed for this type of simulations. However, after some minor adaptations, for example by adding or changing users‘ roles, they are able to fulfil the needs of practical training as well as the process of emergency simulation. This paper characterises and selects simulators and programs for simulating emergency events.

Keywords: computer simulation, Symos´97, simulation software, harmful substances, Konstruktivní simulace, SIMEX

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Authors: Gregory Vigneaux

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The capacity to anticipate future events across varying time scales is integral to the effective operation of both emergency management and emergency services organizations. This paper provides fresh insight into anticipation by first offering a novel conceptualization of organizations in both fields by twisting together socio-technical systems and autopoietic theory. The result of this intertwining of theory is a view of emergency management and emergency services organizations as self-reproducing systems driven by socio-technical processes contingent upon both inflows and outflows across a boundary produced by the system’s own activity. Flowing from this perspective is an approach to anticipation that extends from a system’s intent of continuing to reproduce its identity over a dynamic landscape. This discussion takes a pragmatic turn through Maturana and Verden-Zöller’s domains of structural change, classifying anticipated events and connecting them with types of responses involving inflows, outflows, and socio-technical processes.

Keywords: risk, anticipation, organizations, planning, transformation, identity

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Authors: Pratima Tatke, Archana Avhad, Bhanu Duggal, Meeta Rajivlochan, Sujata Saunik, Pradip Vyas, Nidhi Pandey, Aditee Dalvi, Jyothi Subramanian

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Background: Smoking is well established risk factor for the development and progression of coronary artery disease. It is strongly related to morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular causes. The aim of this study is to observe effect of smoking status on percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI) after 1 year. Methods: 2527 patients who underwent PCI at different hospital of Maharashtra(India) from 2012 to 2015 under the health insurance scheme which is launched by Health department, Government of Maharashtra for below poverty line(BPL) families which covers cardiology. Informed consent of patients was taken .They were followed by telephonic survey after 6months to 1year of PCI . Outcomes of interest included myocardial infarction, restenosis, cardiac rehospitalization, death, and a composite of events after PCI. Made group of two non smokers-1861 and smokers (including patients who quit at time of PCI )-659. Results: Statistical Analysis using Pearson’s chi square test revealed that there was trend seen of increasing incidence of death, Myocardial infarction and Restenosis in smokers than non smokers .Smokers had a greater death risk compared to nonsmoker; 5.7% and 5.1% respectively p=0.518. Also Repeat procedures (2.1% vs. 1.5% p=0.222), breathlessness (17.8% vs. 18.20% p=0.1) and Myocardial Infarction (7.3% vs. 10%) high in smoker than non smokers. Conclusion: Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were observed even after successful PCI in smokers. Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention should be encouraged to stop smoking.

Keywords: coronary artery diseases, major adverse cardiovascular events, percutaneous coronary intervention, smoking

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Authors: Katarzyna Pasternak

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Experiencing the meaning of life is widely recognised as a vital element of well-being and central human motivation. Studies have shown that a higher meaning of life is associated, among other things, with a higher quality of life, higher levels of happiness and better declared health. The subject of the study is the meaning in life measured with The Meaning in Life Questionnaire and the presence of such emotions as nostalgia, awe and hope, and the content of imaginations measured after temporal mental simulations in Americans and Poles. The respondents had to imagine themselves in future, in 40 years and describe two events that would take place at that time. Next, participants assessed the importance of the events described by them, recognised whether during their journey through time they felt awe, hope and nostalgia, and answered the questionnaire examining the meaning in life. 204 (102 from Poland 102 from the USA ) people aged 21 to 60 participated in the study. The study checked whether there were differences in the content of the imaginations of the respondents from Poland and USA, and whether there were statistically significant difference between the declared sense of meaning in life among participants from both countries. The result of the study hane shown that there were no differences in the overall result obtained by the participants in The Meaning in Life Questionnaire , while there were statistically significant differences among the subscales of the questionnaire. It turned out that Americans have a higher presence of meaning in life than Poles, but they obtained lower results in searching of meaning in life. Studies have also shown that there was a statistically significant difference between Poles and Americans in feeling awe after a mental simulation. Poles felt higher level of awe. Images about the future differed between Poles and Americans. Poles judged that the events they described were very important to them. Interestingly, the content of American participants’ imaginations was dominated by topics related to the future of the world, ecology and world peace. There were also ideas about nice moments spent with friends and family. Among Poles, ideas related to professional career and development as well as family events dominated. Research shows that despite the lack of differences in the general meaning in life, Poles are more focused on searching for meaning in life than Americans. The study shows interesting differences between the two cultures.

Keywords: meaning in life, mental simulations, imaginations, temporal mental simulations, future, cultural differences

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: A. Paz, M. Khadka, N. Veeramisti, B. Morris

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There is a continuous large number of crashes involving pedestrians in Nevada despite the numerous safety mechanisms currently used at roadway crossings. Hence, additional as well as more effective mechanisms are required to reduce crashes in Las Vegas, in particular, and Nevada in general. A potential mechanism to reduce conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles is a High-intensity Activated crossWalK (HAWK) signal. This study evaluates the effects of such signals at a particular site in Las Vegas. Video data were collected using two cameras, facing the eastbound and westbound traffic. One week of video data before and after the deployment of the signal were collected to capture the behavior of both pedestrians and drivers. T-test analyses of pedestrian waiting time at the curb, curb-to-curb crossing time, total crossing time, jaywalking events, and near-crash events show that the HAWK system provides significant benefits.

Keywords: pedestrian crashes, HAWK signal, traffic safety, pedestrian danger index

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Nashed Atef Nashed Farag

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Introduction: Reporting adverse events following vaccination remains a challenge. WHO has mandated pharmacovigilance centers around the world to submit Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI) reports from different countries to a large electronic database of adverse drug event data called Vigibase. Despite sufficient information about AEFIs on Vigibase, they are not available to the general public. However, the WHO has an alternative website called VigiAccess, an open-access website that serves as an archive for reported adverse reactions and AEFIs. The aim of the study was to establish a reporting model for a number of commonly used vaccines in the VigiAccess system. Methods: On February 5, 2018, VigiAccess comprehensively searched for ESSI reports on the measles vaccine, oral polio vaccine (OPV), yellow fever vaccine, pneumococcal vaccine, rotavirus vaccine, meningococcal vaccine, tetanus vaccine, and tuberculosis vaccine (BCG). These are reports from all pharmacovigilance centers around the world since they joined the WHO Drug Monitoring Program. Results: After an extensive search, VigiAccess found 9,062 AEFIs from the measles vaccine, 185,829 AEFIs from the OPV vaccine, 24,577 AEFIs from the yellow fever vaccine, 317,208 AEFIs from the pneumococcal vaccine, 73,513 AEFIs from the rotavirus vaccine, and 145,447 AEFIs from meningococcal cal vaccine, 22,781 EI FI vaccines against tetanus and 35,556 BCG vaccines against AEFI. Conclusion: The study found that among the eight vaccines examined, pneumococcal vaccines were associated with the highest number of AEFIs, while measles vaccines were associated with the fewest AEFIs.

Keywords: surgical approach, anatomical approach, decompression, axillary nerve, quadrangular space adverse events following immunization, cameroon, COVID-19 vaccines, nOPV, ODK vaccines, adverse reactions, VigiAccess, adverse event reporting

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Authors: Kuei-Chun Liu, Yu-Yu Lai, Ching-Hong Wu, Hsiao-Han Huang

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The number of Android applications (Apps) has increased rapidly in recent years. In order to get better programmatic control over Apps, we designed a record-and-replay mechanism to record Android input events and accessibility service events then make shortcuts. The shortcut is useful for complicated routine works and to Android beginners. We also generated graphical user interface (GUI) API by these shortcuts. GUI API helps developers make integrated Apps which can control other third-party Apps even if the official API is not offered by their providers. We demonstrated the usage of GUI API with two integrated Apps: Universal Bank App and Universal Communication App. Universal Bank App integrates three accounts from different banks and Universal Communication App integrates Line with WhatsApp. Both of them show the advantage of extendable GUI API. Furthermore, using our mechanism, shortcuts could replay almost all of the Top-100 Apps on Google Play correctly. In sum, the approach we present can help both Android developers and general users.

Keywords: graphical user interface, GUI API, record-and-replay, third-party apps

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Yangze Lan, Ruihua Xv, Feng Zhou, Yijia Shan, Longhao Zhang, Qinghui Xv

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Receiving and dispatching trains is an important part of railroad organization, and the risky evaluation of operating personnel is still reflected by scores, lacking further excavation of wrong answers and operating accidents. With natural language processing (NLP) technology, this study extracts the keywords and key phrases of 40 relevant risk events about receiving and dispatching trains and reclassifies the risk events into 8 categories, such as train approach and signal risks, dispatching command risks, and so on. Based on the historical risk data of personnel, the K-Means clustering method is used to classify the risk level of personnel. The result indicates that the high-risk operating personnel need to strengthen the training of train receiving and dispatching operations towards essential trains and abnormal situations.

Keywords: receiving and dispatching trains, natural language processing, risk evaluation, K-means clustering

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Authors: Alaa Allakany, Koji Okamura

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Multicast technology is an efficient and scalable technology for data distribution in order to optimize network resources. However, in the IP network, the responsibility for management of multicast groups is distributed among network routers, which causes some limitations such as delays in processing group events, high bandwidth consumption and redundant tree calculation. Software Defined Networking (SDN) represented by OpenFlow presented as a solution for many problems, in SDN the control plane and data plane are separated by shifting the control and management to a remote centralized controller, and the routers are used as a forwarder only. In this paper we will proposed fast switching mechanism for solving the problem of link failure in multicast tree based on Tabu Search heuristic algorithm and modifying the functions of OpenFlow switch to fasts switch to the pack up sub tree rather than sending to the controller. In this work we will implement multicasting OpenFlow controller, this centralized controller is a core part in our multicasting approach, which is responsible for 1- constructing the multicast tree, 2- handling the multicast group events and multicast state maintenance. And finally modifying OpenFlow switch functions for fasts switch to pack up paths. Forwarders, forward the multicast packet based on multicast routing entries which were generated by the centralized controller. Tabu search will be used as heuristic algorithm for construction near optimum multicast tree and maintain multicast tree to still near optimum in case of join or leave any members from multicast group (group events).

Keywords: multicast tree, software define networks, tabu search, OpenFlow

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Pedro P. Drumond, Priscilla M. Moura, Marcia M. L. P. Coelho

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The purpose of On-site Stormwater Detention (OSD) system is to promote the detention of addition stormwater runoff caused by impervious areas, in order to maintain the peak flow the same as the pre-urbanization condition. In recent decades, these systems have been built in many cities around the world. However, its real efficiency continues to be unknown due to the lack of research, especially with regard to monitoring its real performance. Thus, this study aims to compare the water level monitoring data of an OSD built in Belo Horizonte/Brazil with the results of theoretical methods simulations, usually adopted in OSD design. There were made two theoretical simulations, one using the Rational Method and Modified Puls method and another using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method and Modified Puls method. The monitoring data were obtained with a water level sensor, installed inside the reservoir and connected to a data logger. The comparison of OSD performance was made for 48 rainfall events recorded from April/2015 to March/2017. The comparison of maximum water levels in the OSD showed that the results of the simulations with Rational/Puls and SCS/Puls methods were, on average 33% and 73%, respectively, lower than those monitored. The Rational/Puls results were significantly higher than the SCS/Puls results, only in the events with greater frequency. In the events with average recurrence interval of 5, 10 and 200 years, the maximum water heights were similar in both simulations. Also, the results showed that the duration of rainfall events was close to the duration of monitored hydrograph. The rising time and recession time of the hydrographs calculated with the Rational Method represented better the monitored hydrograph than SCS Method. The comparison indicates that the real discharge coefficient value could be higher than 0.61, adopted in Puls simulations. New researches evaluating OSD real performance should be developed. In order to verify the peak flow damping efficiency and the value of the discharge coefficient is necessary to monitor the inflow and outflow of an OSD, in addition to monitor the water level inside it.

Keywords: best management practices, on-site stormwater detention, source control, urban drainage

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Edward Nartey

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Although the boundaries of sustainable performance and growth in the field of service supply chains (SCs) have been broadened by scholars in recent years, research on the impact and promises of Industry 4.0 Destructive Technologies (IDTs) on sustainability performance under disruptive events is still scarce. To mitigate disruptions in the SC and improve efficiency by identifying areas for cost savings, organizations have resorted to investments in digitalization, automation, and control mechanisms in recent years. However, little is known about the sustainability implications for IDT adoption and controls in service SCs, especially during disruptive events. To investigate this paradox, survey data were sought from 223 public health managers across Ghana and analyzed via covariance-based structural equations modelling. The results showed that both formal and informal control have a positive and significant relationship with IDT adoption. In addition, formal control has a significant and positive relationship with environmental and economic sustainability but an insignificant relationship with social sustainability. Furthermore, informal control positively impacts economic performance but has an insignificant relationship with social and environmental sustainability. While the findings highlight the prevalence of the IDTs being initiated by Ghanaian public health institutions (PHIs), this study concludes that the installed control systems in these organizations are inadequate for promoting sustainable SC behaviors under destructive events. Thus, in crisis situations, PHIs need to redesign their control systems to facilitate IDT integration towards sustainability issues in SCs.

Keywords: industry 4.0 destructive technologies, formal control, informal control, sustainable supply chain performance, public health organizations

Procedia PDF Downloads 27