Search results for: geopolitical and economic crisis

Authors: Adelakun O. Johnson

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The quest to mitigate the probable adverse effects of geopolitical risk on FDI inflows tends to result in more frequent changes in economic policies and, as a result, heightened policy uncertainty. In this regard, we extend the literature on the dynamics of FDI inflows to include the hypothesis of the possibility of geopolitical risk escalating the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty on FDI inflows. To test the robustness of this hypothesis, we use the cases of different economic groups characterized by different levels of economic development and varying degrees of FDI confidence. Employing an ARDL-based dynamic panel data model that accounts for both non-stationarity and heterogeneity effects, we show result that suggests GPR and EPU retard the inflows of FDI in both economies but mainly in the short-run situation. In the long run, however, higher EPU not attributed to GPR is likely to boost the inflows of FDI rather than retarding, at least in the case of the G7 economy.

Keywords: FDI inflows, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, panel ARDL model

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Authors: Zhao Xinlei

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The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis has had an important impact on the global political and economic order, especially the global food crisis and energy crisis, thus aggravating social and political conflicts. At the same time, with the intensification of the Ukraine crisis, the United States and European countries have imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia to prevent and contain Russia's special military operations against Ukraine. The essence of the Ukraine crisis is a geopolitical conflict and competition between Russia and the United States. For a long time, the United States has always regarded Russia as a serious strategic crisis and challenge. Therefore, for the United States, the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis is an extremely important opportunity to condemn and stop Russia's actions from an international perspective. In this process, China plays a very special role. This special positioning is not only reflected in the long-term friendly relationship between China and Russia and mutual support and assistance on the international stage but also in the complex economic relationship and interdependence between China and the United States. Therefore, China has adopted a "hedging strategy" in dealing with the Ukrainian crisis, and the use of the hedging strategy not only plays a special role in safeguarding China's own security and interests but also because China can act as an intermediary to coordinate Russia and the United States to promote the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis in a peaceful manner.

Keywords: Ukraine crisis Russia-Ukraine conflict balanced strategy Sino-US competition

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Authors: Puthsodary Tat

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Democracy has been categorially accepted and used as foreign and domestic policy agendas for the hope of peace, economic growth and prosperity for more than 25 years in Cambodia. However, the country is now in the grip of dictatorship, human rights violations, and prospective economic sanctions. This paper examines different perceptions and experiences of democratic assistance. In this study, the author employs discourse theory, idealism and realism as a theory-based methodology for debating and assessing the implications of democratization. Discourse theory is used to establish a platform for understanding discursive formations, body of knowledge and the games of truth of democracy. Idealist approaches give rational arguments for adopting key tenets that work well on the ground. In contrast, realism allows for some sweeping critiques of utopian ideal and offers particular views on why Western hegemonic missions do not work well. From idealist views, the research finds that Cambodian people still believe that democracy is a prima facie universality for peace, growth and prosperity. From realism, democratization is on the brink of death in three reasons. Firstly, there are tensions between Western and local discourses about democratic values and norms. Secondly, democratic tenets have been undermined by the ruling party-controlled courts, corruption, structural oppression and political patronage-based institutions. The third pitfall is partly associated with foreign aid dependency and geopolitical power struggles in the region. Finally, the study offers a precise mosaic of democratic principles that may be used to avoid a future geopolitical and economic crisis.

Keywords: corruption, democracy, democratic principles, discourse theory, discursive formations, foreign aid dependency, games of truth, geopolitical and economic crisis, geopolitical power struggle, hegemonic mission, idealism, realism, utopian ideal

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Authors: Huseyin Cetin, Halil Akmese, Sercan Aras, Vahit Aytekin

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Economic crisis, terrorism, global crisis and the relations between countries are the factors affecting tourism industry and tourism industry is vulnerable against these factors. In our study, there are two dimensions about Russian crisis. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine and decreased oil prices in global market have been entailed Russian economic crisis. This crisis has induced that the ruble, Russian currency, has depreciated against American dollars and consequently the purchasing power of Russian has weakened. This is the first dimension of our study. Second dimension is a political crisis between Turkey and Russia owing to the fact that the Russian Warcraft was brought down by Turkish army. The aim of this study is to explain the impact of the consequences of Russian crisis on Turkish tourism industry. The study has been limited only Antalya province.

Keywords: economic crisis, Turkey-Russian crisis, Turkey's tourism industry, tourism in Turkey

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Authors: Ali Asghar Sotoudeh

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Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent regime change, internal conflicts between political and ethnic-religious groups have become a hallmark of Iraqi political dynamism. The most important manifestations of these conflicts are the Kurdish-central government conflicts, as well as fundamentalism since 2003. As a result, it seems not only US presence in Iraq under the pretext of fighting terrorism and expanding democracy has not had a positive effect on controlling fundamentalism and political stability in Iraq, but it has paved the way for the formation and continuation of geopolitical crises in the form of disputes over territory and sources of power. In this regard, given the importance of the study, the main purpose of this study is to examine the process of the impact of US regime-change policy on the formation and continuation of geopolitical crises in Iraq. The central question of this study is, what effect has the US regime change policy had on Iraq's domestic political processes? Findings show that regime change and subsequent imposed federalism have widened the gaps in Iraq's sectarian-ethnic system. As a result, the geopolitical crisis in the context of the dispute over geographical territory and sources of power between ethnic-religious groups has become the most important political dynamic in Iraq since the occupation. The research method in this article is descriptive-analytical, and the data collection method is library and internet resources.

Keywords: Iraq, united states, geopolitical crisis, ethno-religious conflict, political federalism

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Authors: Marula Tsagkari

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Greece finds itself in challenging times, facing a severe economic slowdown since 2009. Despite the fact that Greece is in the epicenter of the global interest, to the best of our knowledge there is no extend research on how the crisis has affected the Greek environment (directly and indirectly), the past years. Thus, the present study aims to fill the aforementioned research gap by examining a number of environmental indicators related with air emissions, waste, water and energy. Our results indicate that the crisis affected the Greek environment in both positive and negative ways. For Greece, the main challenge is to recover from the present economic recession as soon as possible, but not at any cost to the environment. In this context, this research unfolds the interrelation between the economic and the environmental crisis and suggests a sustainable restructuring of the Greek economy.

Keywords: Greece, economic crisis, environmental policy, environmental indicators

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Authors: Amber Brittain-Hale

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This research investigates the evolving role of social media in crisis situations by employing discourse analysis methodology and honing in on the Russo-Ukrainian War, particularly Ukraine's use of LinkedIn. The study posits that social media platforms, such as LinkedIn, play a crucial role in shaping communication, disseminating information, and influencing geopolitical strategies during conflicts. Focusing on Ukraine's official state account on LinkedIn and analyzing its posts and interactions, the research aims to unveil discourse dynamics in high-stakes scenarios and provide valuable insights for leaders navigating complex global challenges. A comprehensive analysis of the data will contribute to a deeper understanding of the tactics adopted by political leaders in managing communication, the bidirectional nature of discourse provided by online social networks, and the rapid advancement of technology that has led to the growing significance of social media platforms in crisis situations. Through this approach, the geopolitical factors that influenced the country's social media strategy during the Russo-Ukrainian War will be illuminated, offering a broader perspective on the role of social media in such challenging times. Ultimately, the study seeks to uncover lessons that can be drawn from Ukraine's LinkedIn approach, informing future strategies for utilizing social media during crises and advancing the understanding of how social media can be harnessed to address intricate global issues.

Keywords: russo-ukrainian war, social media, crisis, discourse analysis

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Authors: Sabrina Mortet

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The economic crisis, which struck the world economy in mid-2008, had an impact on migration in Europe, especially the employment situation of migrant workers. That’s why migrants tended to be the first to lose their jobs during the crisis, victims of the rule "last–in, first-out”. In the same context, the economic recession which affected the migration flows, immigration level has slowed while emigration has increased in some European countries. Since people go where jobs are, we will try to speak about the mobility of migrants after the crisis by focusing on return migration to see if migrants in the period of recession prefer going home or staying in the host country; and we will take Spain as a case of study, because it had attracted an extraordinarily high inflows of migration and it is one of the EU country which was hardly affected by the financial crisis.

Keywords: economic crisis, international migration, mobility, return migration, employement

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Authors: Sofía Luna, Carla González Salamanca

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The 2008 economic crisis had huge implications in Europe. In this continent, the repercussions of the crisis were not only economic but also political and institutional. The economic stress has generated changes in the perception of the citizens, their attitude and the confidence placed in the political organizations. The lost of confidence is not only present in the debtor countries but it is also present in the European economic powers like Germany and France. This research explains how the economic crisis had an impact in the identity, population’s attitude and how this generated the rise of extreme right parties. In addition, it defines the different types of attitudes and support that exist towards these political and economic institutions. The results of this investigation show that the depression beside of its economic implications, it caused institutional, social and political difficulties for the Union. Moreover, the support and attitudes of the population were severely strained because the confidence in the political organization decreased. Furthermore, a rise in the otherness sentiment was shown. In other words, the distinction between “us” and “them” increased causing repercussions in the collective European identity. Additionally, there was a spread in national identities that caused the rise of the extreme right wing parties. In conclusion, the 2008 economic crisis caused not only economic stress but also it generated a political, social and institutional crisis in Europe.

Keywords: Europe, identity, economic crisis, otherness sentiment

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Authors: Layal Mansour

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The aim of this paper is to identify whether oil price volatility or geopolitical risks can predict future financial stress periods or economic recessions in Kuwait. We construct the first Financial Stress Index for Kuwait (FSIK) that includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2020, so it includes the two recent most devastating world economic crises with oil price fluctuation: the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and Ukraine-Russia War. All data are taken by the central bank of Kuwait, the World Bank, IMF, DataStream, and from Federal Reserve System St Louis. The variables are computed as the percentage growth rate, then standardized and aggregated into one index using the variance equal weights method, the most frequently used in the literature. The graphical FSIK analysis provides detailed information (by dates) to policymakers on how internal financial stability depends on internal policy and events such as government elections or resignation. It also shows how monetary authorities or internal policymakers’ decisions to relieve personal loans or increase/decrease the public budget trigger internal financial instability. The empirical analysis under vector autoregression (VAR) models shows the dynamic causal relationship between the oil price fluctuation and the Kuwaiti economy, which relies heavily on the oil price. Similarly, using vector autoregression (VAR) models to assess the impact of the global geopolitical risks on Kuwaiti financial stability, results reveal whether Kuwait is confronted with or sheltered from geopolitical risks. The Financial Stress Index serves as a guide for macroprudential regulators in order to understand the weakness of the overall Kuwaiti financial market and economy regardless of the Kuwaiti dinar strength and exchange rate stability. It helps policymakers predict future stress periods and, thus, address alternative cushions to confront future possible financial threats.

Keywords: Kuwait, financial stress index, causality test, VAR, oil price, geopolitical risks

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Authors: Stella Nkechi Ezeaku, Ifunanya Nkechi Ohamobi

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This study investigated the impact of economic crisis on education in Anambra state. The population of the study comprised of all principals and teachers in Anambra state numbering 5,887 (253 principles and 5,634 teachers). To guide the study, three research questions and one hypothesis were formulated correlational design was adopted. Stratified random sampling technique was used to select 200 principals and 300 teachers as respondents for the study. A researcher-developed instrument tagged Impact of Economic Crisis on Education questionnaire (IECEQ) was used to collect data needed for the study. The instrument was validated by experts in measurement and evaluation. The reliability of the instrument was established using randomly selected members of the population who did not take part in the study. The data obtained was analyzed using Cronbach alpha technique and reliability co-efficient of .801 and .803 was obtained. The data were analyzed using simple and Multiple Regression Analysis. The formulated hypothesis was tested at .05 level of significance. Findings revealed that: there is a significant relationship between economic crisis and realization of goals of secondary education. The result also shows that economic crisis affect students' academic performance, teachers' morale and productivity and principals' administrative capability. This study therefore concludes that certain strategies must be devised to minimize the impact of economic crisis on secondary education. It is recommended that all stakeholders to education should be more resourceful and self-sufficient in order to cushion the effects of economic crisis currently gripping most world economies Nigeria inclusive.

Keywords: impact, economic, crisis, education

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Authors: Pau Rausell-Koster, Jordi Sanjuan-Belda

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The economic crisis of 2008 had a special impact on cultural consumption in Spain. It fell by almost 30% in a few years, and its share of total family spending decreased from 3.19% in 2007 to 2.38% in 2015. In 2017, unlike other indicators, cultural consumption levels were still far from recovering their pre-crisis values. In times of economic difficulties, the satisfaction of primary subsistence needs takes priority over that of social, cultural and experiential needs, among which cultural consumption would mostly be framed. However, its evolution cannot be attributed exclusively to macroeconomic trends. In parallel to these, technological advances mainly related to the Internet have been disseminated in recent years, which have a very marked impact on the consumption patterns of some cultural sectors. Thus, the aim of this study is to define the causes of the decline in cultural consumption in Spain in recent years, and analyse what type of products, territories and population profiles suffered it especially. From the data analysis of the Family Budget Survey, the study seeks to improve the understanding of the determinants of cultural consumption and their behaviour in the face of macroeconomic trends, as well as identify and extract some policy implications regarding to the upcoming crisis caused by COVID-19.

Keywords: consume patterns, cultural consumption, economic crisis, economic trends

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Authors: Sevilay Konya, Sadife Güngör, Zeynep Karaçor

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Turkish economy is occurred depending on different factors from time to time and the banking crises of different magnitudes. Foremost among the factors which hinder the development of countries and societies- crises in the country's economy. Countries' economic growth rates affect inflation, unemployment and external trade. In this study, effect of November 2000, February 2001 and 2008 banking crisis on Turkey's economy and banking crisis will be examined and announced as conceptual. In this context, this study is investigates Turkey's GDP, inflation, unemployment and foreign trade figures. Turkey's economy affected have been identified from 2000 November 2001 February and 2008 banking crisis.

Keywords: banking crises, Turkey’s economy, economic effects, Turkey

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Authors: Friba Haidari

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The aim of the study is to identify Russia's role in managing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict betweenArmenia and Azerbaijan during the years 1990 to 2020. The Nagorno-Karabakh crisis can not be considered a mere territorial conflict but also a crossroads of interests of foreign actors. Geopolitical rivalries and the access to energy by regional and trans-regional actors have complicated the crisis and created a security challenge in the region, which is likely to escalate into a full-blown war between the parties involved. The geopolitical situation of Nagorno-Karabakh and its current situation have affected all peripheral states in some way. Russia, as one of the main actors in this scene, has been actively involved since the beginning of the crisis. The Russians have always sought to strengthen their influence and presence in the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. Russia's efforts to weaken the role of the Minsk Group, The presence of Western actors, and the deployment of Russian forces in the disputed area can be assessed in this context. However, this study seeks to answer the question of what role did Russia play in managing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan between 1990 and 2020? The study hypothesizes that Russia has prevented the escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through mediation and some coercion. This study is divided into four parts, including conflict management as a theoretical framework; Examining the competition and the role of actors in the Caucasus region, especially the role of the Minsk Group, and what approach or tools and methods Russia has used in its foreign policy in managing the conflict, and finally what are the relations between the countries involved and what will be Russia's role in the future? Was discussed. This study examines the analysis and transfer of ideas and information using authoritative international sources with an explanatory method and shares its results with everyone.

Keywords: Russia, conflict, nagorno-karabakh, management

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Authors: Proud Arunrangsiwed

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Crisis management strategies could be found in various curriculums, not only in schools of business, but also schools of communication. Young students, such as freshmen and sophomores of undergraduate schools, may not care about learning crisis management strategies. Moreover, crisis management strategies are not a topic art students are familiar with. The current paper discusses a way to adapt entertainment media into a crisis management lesson, and the importance of learning crisis management strategies in the school of animation. Students could learn crisis management strategies by watching movies with content about a crisis and responding to crisis responding. The students should then participate in follow up discussions related to the strategies that were used to address the crisis, as well as their success in solving the crisis.

Keywords: situational crisis communication theory, crisis response strategies, media effect, unintentional effect

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Authors: Ishrat Zakia Sultana

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The solution to the Rohingya crisis has become complicated than it was anticipated. Because of consistent persecution, ethnic cleansing, and genocide against the Rohingya in Burma, four major influxes of the Rohingya people took place to the neighboring country Bangladesh. After the latest influx of October 2016 and August 2017, the total number of Rohingya in Bangladesh stands somewhere between 900,000 to over one million, placing Bangladesh much ahead with the number of refugees compared to Dadaab and Kakuma in Kenya, Bidibidi in Uganda, and Zaatari in Jordan. While Bangladesh received recognition and appreciation for receiving such a large number of Rohingya, eventually finding a solution to the Rohingya crisis has become a serious problem. The host country and the Rohingya themselves long for repatriation, the most desired solution to the crisis. But going back to their own country is now almost an impossible matter due to the unwillingness of the Myanmar government. The other two options to the solution to Rohingya crisis – reintegration in the host country and third country resettlement – have drawn little attention until now. On the one hand, the geopolitical factors have been making the Rohingya crisis complex. On the other, the war and conflict between Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel have lessening the importance of the Rohingya issue and been diverting the world’s attention from the Rohingya crisis. Clearly, without the support of international community, Bangladesh finds no sustainable way to repatriate 1.1 million Rohingya. Yet, possibilities of a third country resettlement remain unexplored. In the past few years, some countries have expressed interest in accepting the Rohingya as part of third country resettlement but the number they wanted to take is like a drop in the ocean. This paper examines the roadblocks for third country resettlement of the Rohingya. It aims to look at the underlying reasons for which international community is less interested in accepting the Rohingya as refugees. Is it the racial and religious identity of the Rohingya that are considered problematic to the resettlement process? In what ways geopolitical complexities affecting the resettlement issue? How do the Rohingya view third country resettlement? This paper looks for the answers to these questions. The paper is based on qualitative study conducted from 2016-2018 and 2021-2023 in Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. The camp management authority, the Rohingya themselves, and the NGOs working in the camp participated in the study.

Keywords: rohingya, refugee, resettlement, bangladesh

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Authors: M. Mikušová

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The main aim of this paper is to present a clear and comprehensive picture of the process of a crisis in the organization which will help to better understand its possible developments. For a description of the sequence of individual steps and an indication of their causation and possible variants of the developments, a detailed flow diagram with verbal comment is applied. For simplicity, the process of the crisis is observed in four basic phases called: symptoms of the crisis, diagnosis, action and prevention. The model highlights the complexity of the phenomenon of the crisis and that the various phases of the crisis are interweaving.

Keywords: crisis, management, model, organization

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Authors: Silvia Lorenzo, Hongmian Gong

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With the influx of research assessing the economic impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-8, a spatial analysis based on empirical data is needed to better understand the spatial significance of the financial crisis in New York, a key international financial center also considered the origin of the crisis. Using spatial statistics, the existence of financial clusters specializing in credit and securities throughout the New York metropolitan area are identified for 2000 and 2010, the time period before and after the height of the global financial crisis. Geographically Weighted Regressions are then used to examine processes underlying the formation and movement of financial geographies across state, county and ZIP codes of the New York metropolitan area throughout the 2000s with specific attention to tax regimes, employment, household income, technology, and transportation hubs. This analysis provides useful inputs for financial risk management and public policy initiatives aimed at addressing regional economic sustainability across state boundaries, while also developing the groundwork for further research on a spatial analysis of the global financial crisis.

Keywords: financial clusters, New York, global financial crisis, geographically weighted regression

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Authors: Diego Caballero Vélez

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In 1997 the Schengen Convention was incorporated in the mainstream of EU law by the Amsterdam Treaty. It came into effect in 1999 with the abolition of internal border controls in the EU, a milestone in the European integration project. In the meantime, due to the Yugoslav wars, nearly 700,000 asylum applications were filed in the European countries provoking a major refugee crisis. During this period, the opening of Eastern Europe fostered more cooperation and policy-making at the EU level in migration issues. Currently, a similar migratory crisis is taking place in Europe. The Syrian war has caused the most massive influx of immigrants in Europe since World War II. Nevertheless, the EU is adopting different migration policies from those implemented during the Yugoslav migration crisis. The current crisis has not led to a common European position but national responses have been offered on migration policies and responsibility for border security and asylum-seekers. A lot of factors can explain this change from a cooperation scenario to a no cooperation one, such as the economic crisis, but this research is focused on the premise that 'threat perception' lies at the core of some states grand strategies towards migration and it also influences in multilateral or unilateral responses. Migration rests at the nexus of three dimensions of security, including geopolitical interests, material production, and internal security. According to some scholars, migration policy is an 'integral instrument' of state grand strategy in that context. Political integration at the EU might be altered with the emergence of existential threats. In other words, some areas of the European cooperation can be transformed when a 'critical juncture' occurs, for instance a migration crisis. In that instance, Member states could see migration as a matter of threat that modifies their national interests and willingness to embrace international cooperation. This research will focus on EU Member states´ perceptions of the 90´s migration crisis and the current one. The goal is to evaluate to what extent the perceptions of threat are one of the main factors for explaining the transition from a cooperation scenario to a no-cooperation one in European asylum and security policies. To analyze threat perception in both migration crisis, some relevant Member states are treated as cases of study and a comparative analysis is carried out based on public opinion polls, public and policy discourse in migration, voting practices and deconstruction of the migration policies themselves both at EU level and a national one.

Keywords: cooperation, migration crisis, national responses, threat perception

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Authors: Joanna Konstantinou

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The study is about the challenges faced by entrepreneurs in a crisis context and in turbulent economies. The scope is to determine which factors, if any, are related to the success of a new business venture, such as innovation, access to funding and capital, enhanced digital skills, employment relations and organizational culture as well as a company’s strategic orientation towards international markets. The crisis context has been recorded to have affected the number of SMEs in the Greek economy, the number of people employed as well as the volume of the output produced. Although not all SMEs have been equally impacted by the crisis, which has been identified to affect certain sectors more than others, and although research is not exhaustive in that end, employment relations and patterns, firm’s age, and innovation practices in relation to employees’ learning curve seem to have a positive correlation with the successful survival and resilience of the firm. The aim is to identify important factors that can contribute positively to the success of a startup business, and that will allow businesses to acquire resilience and survive economic adversities, and it will focus on businesses of the Greek economy, the country with the longer lasting economic crisis and the findings will be lessons to learn for other economies.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, innovation, crisis, challenges

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Authors: Philippe Gugler

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This contribution reflects some important questions regarding inter alia the economic development occurring in the light of the ASEAN’s goal of creating the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015. We observe a continuing economic growth of GDP per capita over recent years despite the negative effects of the world economic crisis. IMF forecasts indicate that this trend will continue. The paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of economic growth trends of ASEAN countries.

Keywords: ASEAN, convergence, divergence, economic growth, globalization, integration

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Authors: Mohamad Reza Asariha

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Crises are an integral part of social life, and their diversity is increasing day by day. Every aspect of life for humans involves a crisis, and these crises are becoming more varied over time. In times of crisis, the media has a special responsibility to inform the public and raise awareness of the situation. The public can be calmed by the media and inspired to take positive action or vice versa; the media can terrorize the public and cause mayhem. Media are regarded as one of the most significant forms of communication in the information age. Media plays an important role in different stages of crises. Before a crisis occurs, they can prevent the spread of the crisis and reduce its losses by warning about the consequences. At the time of the crisis, they can minimize the crisis by creating a scientific and rational atmosphere, or as mediators between the crisis agents and the interest groups, they can minimize the political clashes and be effective in attracting and participating the audience in crisis management. There is widespread access to the media, so it has a significant role in moderating and changing public opinion.

Keywords: media, crisis, crisis communication, crisis management, emergency situations

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Authors: Eva Kotlánová

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After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.

Keywords: economic crises in Europe, economic policy, uncertainty, panel analysis regression

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Authors: Artsiom Zinchanka

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The world faces now one of the largest migration crisis and the European Union meets challenges in accepting the flow of migrants that could not be handled finally at this step. This crisis is complicated with many factors, such as military conflict in the Middle East; absence of the appropriate conditions in the refugees’ camps; but also with the complicity of the migration flow consisting of the Sub-Saharan migrants. This type of migrants leave their homelands for many reasons including poverty, not appropriate level of social and economic conditions, absence of infrastructure and access to the education and medical care. In practice, when the restrictive approach directed to limit the flow of illicit migration and to send illicit migrants back to their homelands is not always working, the approach directed to the root causes of the migration crisis can be more effective in settling the crisis. The Cotonou Agreement and the following treaties concluded between the European Union, and Sub-Saharan states show that the European Union considers the development of human rights and appropriate social and economic conditions in the Sub-Saharan states as one of the most important factors addressing the migration crisis. The preventive approach as the efforts of the European Union to develop appropriate social and economic conditions in Sub-Saharan states is considered in this article, as well as its evolution and current condition. This article also considers pros and cons of this approach and the obstacles that this approach faces. The research methods include review of literature and documents, analytical and descriptive methods.

Keywords: migration crisis, preventive approach, Sub-Saharan States, the European Union

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Authors: Manana Lobzhanidze, Marine Kobalava, Lali Chikviladze

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The global pandemic crisis has had a significant impact on educational migration, substantially limiting young people’s access to education abroad. Therefore, it became necessary to study the economic, demographic, social, cultural and other factors associated with educational migration, to identify the economic and political challenges of educational migration and to develop recommendations. The aim of the research is to study the effects of the atypical crisis on educational migration and to make recommendations on effective migration opportunities based on the identification of economic and policy challenges in this area. Bibliographic research is used to assess the effects of the impact of the atypical crisis on educational migration presented in the papers of various scholars. Against the background of the restrictions imposed during the COVID19 pandemic, migration rates have been analyzed, endogenous and exogenous factors affecting educational migration have been identified. Quantitative and qualitative research of students and graduates of TSU Economics and Business Faculty is conducted, the results have been processed by SPSS program, the factors hindering educational migration and the challenges have been identified. The Internet and digital technologies have been shown to play a vital role in alleviating the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, however, lack of Internet access and limited financial resources have played a disruptive role in the educational migration process. The analysis of quantitative research materials revealed the problems of educational migration caused by the atypical crisis, while some issues were clarified during the focus group meetings. The following theoretical-methodological approaches were used during the research: a bibliographic research, analysis, synthesis, comparison, selection-grouping are used; Quantitative and qualitative research has been carried out, the results have been processed by SPSS program. The article presents the consequences of the atypical crisis for educational migration, identifies the main economic and policy challenges in the field of educational migration, and develops appropriate recommendations to overcome them.

Keywords: educational migration, atypical crisis, economic-political challenges, educational migration factors

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Authors: Yulia Kasperskaya, Ramon Xifré

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Budgetary procedures are considered to be important for countries’ fiscal performance. The objective of this paper is to analyze this relationship for the OECD countries in the wake of global economic crisis taking into consideration countries’ fiscal conditions and institutional arrangements. We test whether groups of countries that are fiscally different after the crisis differ in their use of budgetary procedures including performance budgeting, transparency mechanisms and medium-term expenditure framework. For this purpose, we classify OECD countries in two groups according to the variations, in debt to GDP ratio between 2008 and 2014. We then analyze the intensity of use of budget procedures taking into account countries’ economic conditions during the crisis. Our first finding is that there is no monotonic relationship between the intensity of use of these three budgetary procedures and enhanced fiscal performance. Countries showing similar fiscal performance scored differently in terms of on budgetary procedures. We, therefore, review the budgetary frameworks and trajectories of several countries that are fiscally sound. From this qualitative analysis, we derive a set of factors that may enhance the efficiency of budgetary procedures. This suggests that a given budgetary procedure may have different effects in different countries depending on their economic and administrative settings. Our results are thus in line with those studies that reject one-size-fits-all approaches.

Keywords: budget procedures, fiscal performance, OECD, performance budgeting

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Authors: Avi Shrivastava

Abstract:

In 2021, two heart-wrenching scenes, shown live on television screens across countries, painted a grim picture of refugees. One of them was of people clinging onto an airplane's wings in their desperate attempt to flee war-torn Afghanistan. They ultimately fell to their death. The other scene was the U.S. government authorities separating children from their parents or guardians to deter migrants/refugees from coming to the U.S. These events show the desperation refugees feel when they are trying to leave their homes in disaster zones. However, data paints a grave picture of the current refugee situation. It also indicates that a bleak future lies ahead for the refugees across the globe. Data and information are the two threads that intertwine to weave the shimmery fabric of modern society. Data and information are often used interchangeably, but they differ considerably. For example, information analysis reveals rationale, and logic, while data analysis, on the other hand, reveals a pattern. Moreover, patterns revealed by data can enable us to create the necessary tools to combat huge problems on our hands. Data analysis paints a clear picture so that the decision-making process becomes simple. Geopolitical and economic data can be used to predict future refugee hotspots. Accurately predicting the next refugee hotspots will allow governments and relief agencies to prepare better for future refugee crises. The refugee crisis does not have binary answers. Given the emotionally wrenching nature of the ground realities, experts often shy away from realistically stating things as they are. This hesitancy can cost lives. When decisions are based solely on data, emotions can be removed from the decision-making process. Data also presents irrefutable evidence and tells whether there is a solution or not. Moreover, it also responds to a nonbinary crisis with a binary answer. Because of all that, it becomes easier to tackle a problem. Data science and A.I. can predict future refugee crises. With the recent explosion of data due to the rise of social media platforms, data and insight into data has solved many social and political problems. Data science can also help solve many issues refugees face while staying in refugee camps or adopted countries. This paper looks into various ways data science can help solve refugee problems. A.I.-based chatbots can help refugees seek legal help to find asylum in the country they want to settle in. These chatbots can help them find a marketplace where they can find help from the people willing to help. Data science and technology can also help solve refugees' many problems, including food, shelter, employment, security, and assimilation. The refugee problem seems to be one of the most challenging for social and political reasons. Data science and machine learning can help prevent the refugee crisis and solve or alleviate some of the problems that refugees face in their journey to a better life. With the explosion of data in the last decade, data science has made it possible to solve many geopolitical and social issues.

Keywords: refugee crisis, artificial intelligence, data science, refugee camps, Afghanistan, Ukraine

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Seyed Sajjad Habibi

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of global financial crises and corporate financial crisis on tax evasion of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, panel data in the periods of financial crisis period (2007 to 2012) and without a financial crisis (2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, and 2015) was analyzed using multivariate linear regression. The results indicate a significant relationship between the corporate financial crisis (bankruptcy risk) and tax evasion in the global financial crisis period. The results also showed a significant relationship between the corporate bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period with no global financial crisis. A significant difference was found between the bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period of the global financial crisis and that with no financial crisis so that tax evasion increased in the financial crisis period.

Keywords: global financial crisis, corporate financial crisis, bankruptcy risk, tax evasion risk, emerging markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Sami Adwan, Alaa Alhaj Ismail, Claudia Girardone

Abstract:

This paper examines the changes in the value relevance of book value of equity and net income of financial firms over the crisis period. It also examines how these changes vary with three variables, namely, fair value exposure, ownership concentration, and regulatory capital ratios. Using a sample of financial firms operating in the European Economic Area over 2005-2011, our findings suggest that the value relevance of book value of equity increases while that of net income decreases during the financial crisis. We find that more exposure to fair value accounting mitigates the impact of the crisis on the value relevance of book value of equity and net income. We also find that more concentrated ownership appears to have a mitigating impact on the changes in the value relevance of both book value of equity and net income in times of financial crisis. Finally, we find evidence that the level of regulatory capital ratios tends to have an attenuating effect on the changes in the value relevance of net income (but not book value of equity) in times of financial crisis.

Keywords: value relevance, financial crisis, financial firms, fair value, ownership concentration, regulatory capital

Procedia PDF Downloads 181