Search results for: technical trading rules
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1185

Search results for: technical trading rules

915 Effect of Irrigation Methods on Water Use Efficiency Applied to Citrus Crop in the Souss Region (Morocco) in the Context of Climate Change

Authors: H. Elomari, M. Fallah, A. Elmousadik

Abstract:

This work was conducted in the Souss region, known by severe water scarcity and a high agricultural activity dominated by the citrus (representing 40% of the area of Morocco's citrus). The objective of this work is to diagnose the current situation of the water efficiency in citrus irrigation and analyze the impact of various production factors on water productivity and its sustainability in the context of climate change. A field survey was conducted on 65 farms with areas varying from 0.5 to 350 ha. The stratification method was adopted as a sampling frame. Initial result indicates that the use of water shows a huge shortfall, since 31% of farms in the region are still using the surface irrigation system and 67% of farms are still using only the experience of the manager to control and adjust irrigation. The assessment of water productivity showed a value of 1.2 kg/m3 for surface irrigation and 3.8 kg/m3 for drip irrigation. The use of tools for control and adjustment of irrigation increases the water productivity of drip irrigation by 25%. The availability of the technical staff (internal or external) allows an increase in productivity of 172.4% compared to farms without technical advice.

Keywords: Citrus, irrigation efficiency, water productivity, drip irrigation.

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914 The Application of Real Options to Capital Budgeting

Authors: George Yungchih Wang

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Real options theory suggests that managerial flexibility embedded within irreversible investments can account for a significant value in project valuation. Although the argument has become the dominant focus of capital investment theory over decades, yet recent survey literature in capital budgeting indicates that corporate practitioners still do not explicitly apply real options in investment decisions. In this paper, we explore how real options decision criteria can be transformed into equivalent capital budgeting criteria under the consideration of uncertainty, assuming that underlying stochastic process follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), a mixed diffusion-jump (MX), or a mean-reverting process (MR). These equivalent valuation techniques can be readily decomposed into conventional investment rules and “option impacts", the latter of which describe the impacts on optimal investment rules with the option value considered. Based on numerical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, three major findings are derived. First, it is shown that real options could be successfully integrated into the mindset of conventional capital budgeting. Second, the inclusion of option impacts tends to delay investment. It is indicated that the delay effect is the most significant under a GBM process and the least significant under a MR process. Third, it is optimal to adopt the new capital budgeting criteria in investment decision-making and adopting a suboptimal investment rule without considering real options could lead to a substantial loss in value.

Keywords: real options, capital budgeting, geometric Brownianmotion, mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process

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913 Introduction to Techno-Sectoral Innovation System Modeling and Functions Formulating

Authors: S. M. Azad, H. Ghodsipour, F. Roshannafas

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In recent years ‘technology management and policymaking’ is one of the most important problems in management science. In this field, different generations of innovation and technology management are presented which the earliest one is Innovation System (IS) approach. In a general classification, innovation systems are divided in to 4 approaches: technical, sectoral, regional, and national. There are many researches in relation to each of these approaches in different academic fields. Every approach has some benefits. If two or more approaches hybrid, their benefits would be combined. In addition, according to the sectoral structure of the governance model in Iran, in many sectors, such as information technology, the combination of three other approaches with sectoral approach is essential. Hence, in this paper, combining two IS approaches (technical and sectoral) and using system dynamics, a generic model is presented for a sample of software industry. As a complimentary point, this article is introducing a new hybrid approach called Techno-Sectoral Innovation System. This TSIS model is accomplished by Changing concepts of the ‘functions’-which came from Technological IS literature- and using them into sectoral system as measurable indicators.

Keywords: Innovation system, technology, techno-sectoral system, functional indicators, system dynamics.

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912 PM Electrical Machines Diagnostic - Methods Selected

Authors: M. Barański

Abstract:

This paper presents a several diagnostic methods designed to electrical machinesespecially for permanent magnets (PM) machines. Those machines are commonly used in small wind and water systems and vehicles drives.Thosemethodsare preferred by the author in periodic diagnostic of electrical machines. The special attentionshould be paid to diagnostic method of turn-to-turn insulation and vibrations. Both of those methodswere createdinInstitute of Electrical Drives and MachinesKomel. The vibration diagnostic method is the main thesis of author’s doctoral dissertation. This is method of determination the technical condition of PM electrical machine basing on its own signals is the subject of patent application No P.405669. Specific structural properties of machines excited by permanent magnets are used in this method - electromotive force (EMF) generated due to vibrations. There was analysed number of publications which describe vibration diagnostic methods and tests of electrical machines with permanent magnets and there was no method found to determine the technical condition of such machine basing on their own signals.

Keywords: Electrical vehicle, generator, main insulation, permanent magnet, thermography, turn-to- traction drive, turn insulation, vibrations.

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911 Creativity in Development of Multimedia Presentation

Authors: Mahathir Sarjan, Ramos Radzly, Noor Baiti Jamaluddin, Mohd Hafiz Zakaria, Hisham Suhadi

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Creativity is marked by the ability or power, to produce through imaginative skill and create something anew. The University is one of the great places to improve the talent in imaginative skill. The purpose of this study was to identify a creativity of the student in presentation product development. Two hundred seventeen Technical and Vocational Education (TVE) students in Universiti Tun Hussein Onn had chosen as a respondent. This study is to survey the level of creativity which is focused on knowledge, skills, presentation style, and character of creative personnel. The level of creativity was measured based on the scale at low, medium and high followed by mean score level. The data collected by questionnaire, then analyzed using SPSS version 20.0.The result of the study indicated that the students showed a higher of creativity (mean score in Knowledge = 4.12 and Skills= 4.02). In conjunction with the findings, implications and recommendations were suggested forward like to ensconce the research and improve with a more creativity concept in presentation product of development for learning and teaching process.

Keywords: Creativity, technical, vocational education, presentation products and development for learning and teaching process.

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910 Analyzing CPFR Supporting Factors with Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach

Authors: G. Büyüközkan , O. Feyzioglu, Z. Vardaloglu

Abstract:

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) coordinates the various supply chain management activities including production and purchase planning, demand forecasting and inventory replenishment between supply chain trading partners. This study proposes a systematic way of analyzing CPFR supporting factors using fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach. FCMs have proven particularly useful for solving problems in which a number of decision variables and uncontrollable variables are causally interrelated. Hence the FCMs of CPFR are created to show the relationships between the factors that influence on effective implementation of CPFR in the supply chain.

Keywords: Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment, fuzzy cognitive map, information sharing, decision synchronization, incentive alignment.

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909 The Problem of Reconciling the Principle of Confidentiality in Foreign Investment Arbitration with the Public Interest

Authors: Bárbara Magalhães Bravo, Cláudia Figueiras

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The economical globalization through the liberalization of the markets and capitals boosted the economical development of the nations and the needs for sorting out the disputes arising from the foreign investment. The arbitration, for all the inherent advantages, such as swiftness, arbitrators’ specialise skills and impartiality sets a pacifier tool for the interest in account. Safeguarded the public interest, we face the problem of the confidentiality in the arbitration. The urgent development of impelling mechanisms concerning transparency, guaranty and protection of the interest in account, reveals itself urgent. Through a bibliography review, we will dense the state of art, by going through the several solutions concerning, and pointing out the most suitable. Through the jurisprudential analysis we will point out the solution for the conflict confidentiality/public interest. The transparency, inextricable from the public interest, imposes the arbitration process can be open to all citizens. Transparency rules have been considered at the UNCITRAL in attempting to conciliate the necessity of publicity and the public interest, however still insufficient. The arbitration of foreign investment carries consequences to the citizens of the State. Articulating mechanisms between the arbitral procedures secrecy and the public interest should be adopted. The arbitration of foreign investment, being a tertius genius between the international arbitration and the administrative arbitration would claim its own regulation in each and every States where the confidentiality rules and its exceptions could be identified. One should enquiry where the limit of the citizens’ individual rights protection and the public interest should give way to the principle of transparency

Keywords: Arbitration, foreign investment, transparency, confidentiality, international centre for settlement of investment disputes UNCITRAL.

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908 Technical Determinants of Success in Quality Management Systems Implementation in the Automotive Industry

Authors: Agnieszka Misztal

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The popularity of quality management system models continues to grow despite the transitional crisis in 2008. Their development is associated with demands of the new requirements for entrepreneurs, such as risk analysis projects and more emphasis on supervision of outsourced processes. In parallel, it is appropriate to focus attention on the selection of companies aspiring to a quality management system. This is particularly important in the automotive supplier industry, where requirements transferred to the levels in the supply chain should be clear, transparent and fairly satisfied. The author has carried out a series of researches aimed at finding the factors that allow for the effective implementation of the quality management system in automotive companies. The research was focused on four groups of companies: 1) manufacturing (parts and assemblies for the purpose of sale or for vehicle manufacturers), 2) service (repair and maintenance of the car) 3) services for the transport of goods or people, 4) commercial (auto parts and vehicles). The identified determinants were divided into two types of criteria: internal and external, as well as hard and soft. The article presents the hard – technical factors that an automotive company must meet in order to achieve the goal of the quality management system implementation.

Keywords: Automotive industry, quality management system.

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907 Performing Diagnosis in Building with Partially Valid Heterogeneous Tests

Authors: Houda Najeh, Mahendra Pratap Singh, Stéphane Ploix, Antoine Caucheteux, Karim Chabir, Mohamed Naceur Abdelkrim

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Building system is highly vulnerable to different kinds of faults and human misbehaviors. Energy efficiency and user comfort are directly targeted due to abnormalities in building operation. The available fault diagnosis tools and methodologies particularly rely on rules or pure model-based approaches. It is assumed that model or rule-based test could be applied to any situation without taking into account actual testing contexts. Contextual tests with validity domain could reduce a lot of the design of detection tests. The main objective of this paper is to consider fault validity when validate the test model considering the non-modeled events such as occupancy, weather conditions, door and window openings and the integration of the knowledge of the expert on the state of the system. The concept of heterogeneous tests is combined with test validity to generate fault diagnoses. A combination of rules, range and model-based tests known as heterogeneous tests are proposed to reduce the modeling complexity. Calculation of logical diagnoses coming from artificial intelligence provides a global explanation consistent with the test result. An application example shows the efficiency of the proposed technique: an office setting at Grenoble Institute of Technology.

Keywords: Heterogeneous tests, validity, building system, sensor grids, sensor fault, diagnosis, fault detection and isolation.

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906 Integrating Computational Intelligence Techniques and Assessment Agents in ELearning Environments

Authors: Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Christos E. Alexakos, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D.Likothanassis

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In this contribution an innovative platform is being presented that integrates intelligent agents and evolutionary computation techniques in legacy e-learning environments. It introduces the design and development of a scalable and interoperable integration platform supporting: I) various assessment agents for e-learning environments, II) a specific resource retrieval agent for the provision of additional information from Internet sources matching the needs and profile of the specific user and III) a genetic algorithm designed to extract efficient information (classifying rules) based on the students- answering input data. The agents are implemented in order to provide intelligent assessment services based on computational intelligence techniques such as Bayesian Networks and Genetic Algorithms. The proposed Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used in order to extract efficient information (classifying rules) based on the students- answering input data. The idea of using a GA in order to fulfil this difficult task came from the fact that GAs have been widely used in applications including classification of unknown data. The utilization of new and emerging technologies like web services allows integrating the provided services to any web based legacy e-learning environment.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Computational Intelligencetechniques, E-learning legacy systems, Service Oriented Integration, Intelligent Agents, Genetic Algorithms.

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905 Efficiency for Sustainable Growth: Evidence from the North African Countries

Authors: Ekrem Erdem, Can Tansel Tugcu

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Improved resource efficiency of production is a key requirement for sustainable growth, worldwide. In this regards, by considering the energy and tourism as the extra inputs to the classical Coub-Douglas production function, this study aims at investigating the efficiency changes in the North African countries. To this end, the study uses panel data for the period 1995-2010 and adopts the Malmquist index based on the data envelopment analysis. Results show that tourism increases technical and scale efficiencies, while it decreases technological and total factor productivity changes. On the other hand, when the production function is augmented by the energy input; technical efficiency change decreases, while the technological change, scale efficiency change and total factor productivity change increase. Thus, in order to satisfy the needs for sustainable growth, North African governments should take some measures for increasing the contribution that the tourism makes to economic growth and some others for efficient use of resources in the energy sector.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Economic efficiency, North African countries, Sustainable growth.

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904 Farming Production in Brazil: Innovation and Land-Sparing Effect

Authors: Isabela Romanha de Alcantara, José Eustáquio Ribeiro Vieira Filho, José Garcia Gasques

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Innovation and technology can be determinant factors to ensure agricultural and sustainable growth, as well as productivity gains. Technical change has contributed considerably to supply agricultural expansion in Brazil. This agricultural growth could be achieved by incorporating more land or capital. If capital is the main source of agricultural growth, it is possible to increase production per unit of land. The objective of this paper is to estimate: 1) total factor productivity (TFP), which is measured in terms of the rate of output per unit of input; and 2) the land-saving effect (LSE) that is the amount of land required in the case that yield rate is constant over time. According to this study, from 1990 to 2019, it appears that 87% of Brazilian agriculture product growth comes from the gains of productivity; the remaining 13% comes from input growth. In the same period, the total LSE was roughly 400 Mha, which corresponds to 47% of the national territory. These effects reflect the greater efficiency of using productive factors, whose technical change has allowed an increase in the agricultural production based on productivity gains.

Keywords: agriculture, land-saving effect, livestock, productivity

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903 Secure peerTalk Using PEERT System

Authors: Nebu Tom John, N. Dhinakaran

Abstract:

Multiparty voice over IP (MVoIP) systems allows a group of people to freely communicate each other via the internet, which have many applications such as online gaming, teleconferencing, online stock trading etc. Peertalk is a peer to peer multiparty voice over IP system (MVoIP) which is more feasible than existing approaches such as p2p overlay multicast and coupled distributed processing. Since the stream mixing and distribution are done by the peers, it is vulnerable to major security threats like nodes misbehavior, eavesdropping, Sybil attacks, Denial of Service (DoS), call tampering, Man in the Middle attacks etc. To thwart the security threats, a security framework called PEERTS (PEEred Reputed Trustworthy System for peertalk) is implemented so that efficient and secure communication can be carried out between peers.

Keywords: Key management system, peer-to-peer voice streaming, reputed trust management system, voice-over-IP.

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902 Developing a Sustainable Educational Portal for the D-Grid Community

Authors: Viktor Achter, Sebastian Breuers, Marc Seifert, Ulrich Lang, Joachim Götze, Bernd Reuther, Paul Müller

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Within the last years, several technologies have been developed to help building e-learning portals. Most of them follow approaches that deliver a vast amount of functionalities, suitable for class-like learning. The SuGI project, as part of the D-Grid (funded by the BMBF), targets on delivering a highly scalable and sustainable learning solution to provide materials (e.g. learning modules, training systems, webcasts, tutorials, etc.) containing knowledge about Grid computing to the D-Grid community. In this article, the process of the development of an e-learning portal focused on the requirements of this special user group is described. Furthermore, it deals with the conceptual and technical design of an e-learning portal, addressing the special needs of heterogeneous target groups. The main focus lies on the quality management of the software development process, Web templates for uploading new contents, the rich search and filter functionalities which will be described from a conceptual as well as a technical point of view. Specifically, it points out best practices as well as concepts to provide a sustainable solution to a relatively unknown and highly heterogeneous community.

Keywords: D-Grid, e-learning, e-science, Grid computing, SuGI.

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901 Impact of Increasing Distributed Solar PV Systems on Distribution Networks in South Africa

Authors: Aradhna Pandarum

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South Africa is experiencing an exponential growth of distributed solar PV installations. This is due to various factors with the predominant one being increasing electricity tariffs along with decreasing installation costs, resulting in attractive business cases to some end-users. Despite there being a variety of economic and environmental advantages associated with the installation of PV, their potential impact on distribution grids has yet to be thoroughly investigated. This is especially true since the locations of these units cannot be controlled by Network Service Providers (NSPs) and their output power is stochastic and non-dispatchable. This report details two case studies that were completed to determine the possible voltage and technical losses impact of increasing PV penetration in the Northern Cape of South Africa. Some major impacts considered for the simulations were ramping of PV generation due to intermittency caused by moving clouds, the size and overall hosting capacity and the location of the systems. The main finding is that the technical impact is different on a constrained feeder vs a non-constrained feeder. The acceptable PV penetration level is much lower for a constrained feeder than a non-constrained feeder, depending on where the systems are located.

Keywords: Medium voltage networks, power system losses, power system voltage, solar photovoltaic, PV.

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900 Power System Damping Using Hierarchical Fuzzy Multi- Input PSS and Communication Lines Active Power Deviations Input and SVC

Authors: Mohammad Hasan Raouf, Ahmad Rouhani, Mohammad Abedini, Ebrahim Rasooli Anarmarzi

Abstract:

In this paper the application of a hierarchical fuzzy system (HFS) based on MPSS and SVC in multi-machine environment is studied. Also the effect of communication lines active power variance signal between two ΔPTie-line regions, as one of the inputs of hierarchical fuzzy multi-input PSS and SVC (HFMPSS & SVC), on the increase of low frequency oscillation damping is examined. In the MPSS, to have better efficiency an auxiliary signal of reactive power deviation (ΔQ) is added with ΔP+ Δω input type PSS. The number of rules grows exponentially with the number of variables in a classic fuzzy system. To reduce the number of rules the HFS consists of a number of low-dimensional fuzzy systems in a hierarchical structure. Phasor model of SVC is described and used in this paper. The performances of MPSS and ΔPTie-line based HFMPSS and also the proposed method in damping inter-area mode of oscillation are examined in response to disturbances. The efficiency of the proposed model is examined by simulating a four-machine power system. Results show that the proposed method is performing satisfactorily within the whole range of disturbances and reduces the cost of system.

Keywords: Communication lines active power variance signal, Hierarchical fuzzy system (HFS), Multi-input power system stabilizer (MPSS), Static VAR compensator (SVC).

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899 Roles and Responsibilities to Success of IT Project in an Organization

Authors: Vahhab Attar Olyaee, Fouad Attar Olyaee

Abstract:

Many IT projects come to failure because of having technical approach, focusing on the final product and lack of proper attention to strategic alignment. Project management models quite often have technical management view [4], [8], [13], [14]. These models focus greatly on the finalization of the project product and the delivery of the product to the customer. However, many project problems are due to lack of attention to the needs and capabilities of the organizations or disregarding how to deploy and use the product in the organization. In this regard, in the current research we are trying to present a solution with the purpose of raising the value of the project in an organization. This way, the project outputs will be properly deployed in the organization. Therefore, a comprehensive model is presented which takes into account the whole processes from initial step of project definition to the deployment of the final outputs in the organization and then the definition of all roles and responsibilities to put the model into practice. Taking into account the opinions of experts and project managers, to prove the performance of the model, the project problems were recognized and based on the model, categorized and analyzed. And at the end it is made clear that ignoring the proper definition of the project and not having a proper understanding of the expected value on the one hand and not supervising the emerged value in the process of production and installment are among the most important factors that bring a project to failure.

Keywords: IT Governance, Project Model, Roles and Responsibilities of Project

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898 Seismic Rehabilitation of R/C Buildings Designed with Earlier Technical Standards

Authors: Stefano Sorace, Gloria Terenzi

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The seismic rehabilitation designs of two reinforced concrete school buildings, representative of a wide stock of similar edifices designed under earlier editions of the Italian Technical Standards, are presented in this paper. The mutual retrofit solution elaborated for the two buildings consists in the incorporation of a dissipative bracing system including pressurized fluid viscous springdampers as passive protective devices. The mechanical parameters, layouts and locations selected for the constituting elements of the system; the architectural renovation projects developed to properly incorporate the structural interventions and improve the appearance of the buildings; highlights of the installation works already completed in one of the two structures; and a synthesis of the performance assessment analyses carried out in original and rehabilitated conditions, are illustrated. The results of the analyses show a remarkable enhancement of the seismic response capacities of both structures. This allows reaching the high performance objectives postulated in the retrofit designs with much lower costs and architectural intrusion as compared to traditional rehabilitation interventions designed for the same objectives.

Keywords: Seismic rehabilitation, R/C structures, performance analysis, dissipative braces, fluid viscous dampers.

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897 Evaluation of Low-Reducible Sinter in Blast Furnace Technology by Mathematical Model Developed at Centre ENET, VSB – Technical University of Ostrava

Authors: S. Jursová, P. Pustějovská, S. Brožová, J. Bilík

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The paper deals with possibilities of interpretation of iron ore reducibility tests. It presents a mathematical model developed at Centre ENET, VŠB – Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic for an evaluation of metallurgical material of blast furnace feedstock such as iron ore, sinter or pellets. According to the data from the test, the model predicts its usage in blast furnace technology and its effects on production parameters of shaft aggregate. At the beginning, the paper sums up the general concept and experience in mathematical modelling of iron ore reduction. It presents basic equation for the calculation and the main parts of the developed model. In the experimental part, there is an example of usage of the mathematical model. The paper describes the usage of data for some predictive calculation. There are presented material, method of carried test of iron ore reducibility. Then there are graphically interpreted effects of used material on carbon consumption, rate of direct reduction and the whole reduction process.

Keywords: Blast furnace technology, iron ore reduction, mathematical model, prediction of iron ore reduction.

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896 ISCS (Information Security Check Service) for the Safety and Reliability of Communications

Authors: Jong-Whoi Shin, Jin-Tae Lee, Sang-Soo Jang, Jae-II Lee

Abstract:

Recent widespread use of information and communication technology has greatly changed information security risks that businesses and institutions encounter. Along with this situation, in order to ensure security and have confidence in electronic trading, it has become important for organizations to take competent information security measures to provide international confidence that sensitive information is secure. Against this backdrop, the approach to information security checking has come to an important issue, which is believed to be common to all countries. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the new system of information security checking program in Korea and to propose synthetic information security countermeasures under domestic circumstances in order to protect physical equipment, security management and technology, and the operation of security check for securing services on ISP(Internet Service Provider), IDC(Internet Data Center), and e-commerce(shopping malls, etc.)

Keywords: Information Security Check Service, safety criteria, object enterpriser.

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895 Urban Flood Control and Management - An Integrated Approach

Authors: Ranjan Sarukkalige, Joseph Sanjaya Ma

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Flood management is one of the important fields in urban storm water management. Floods are influenced by the increase of huge storm event, or improper planning of the area. This study mainly provides the flood protection in four stages; planning, flood event, responses and evaluation. However it is most effective then flood protection is considered in planning/design and evaluation stages since both stages represent the land development of the area. Structural adjustments are often more reliable than nonstructural adjustments in providing flood protection, however structural adjustments are constrained by numerous factors such as political constraints and cost. Therefore it is important to balance both adjustments with the situation. The technical decisions provided will have to be approved by the higher-ups who have the power to decide on the final solution. Costs however, are the biggest factor in determining the final decision. Therefore this study recommends flood protection system should have been integrated and enforces more in the early stages (planning and design) as part of the storm water management plan. Factors influencing the technical decisions provided should be reduced as low as possible to avoid a reduction in the expected performance of the proposed adjustments.

Keywords: Urban Flood, flood protection, water management, storm water, cost,

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894 Cumulative Learning based on Dynamic Clustering of Hierarchical Production Rules(HPRs)

Authors: Kamal K.Bharadwaj, Rekha Kandwal

Abstract:

An important structuring mechanism for knowledge bases is building clusters based on the content of their knowledge objects. The objects are clustered based on the principle of maximizing the intraclass similarity and minimizing the interclass similarity. Clustering can also facilitate taxonomy formation, that is, the organization of observations into a hierarchy of classes that group similar events together. Hierarchical representation allows us to easily manage the complexity of knowledge, to view the knowledge at different levels of details, and to focus our attention on the interesting aspects only. One of such efficient and easy to understand systems is Hierarchical Production rule (HPRs) system. A HPR, a standard production rule augmented with generality and specificity information, is of the following form Decision If < condition> Generality Specificity . HPRs systems are capable of handling taxonomical structures inherent in the knowledge about the real world. In this paper, a set of related HPRs is called a cluster and is represented by a HPR-tree. This paper discusses an algorithm based on cumulative learning scenario for dynamic structuring of clusters. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge into the set of clusters from the previous episodes and also maintains summary of clusters as Synopsis to be used in the future episodes. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested incremental structuring of clusters would be useful in mining data streams.

Keywords: Cumulative learning, clustering, data mining, hierarchical production rules.

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893 A Dynamic Hybrid Option Pricing Model by Genetic Algorithm and Black- Scholes Model

Authors: Yi-Chang Chen, Shan-Lin Chang, Chia-Chun Wu

Abstract:

Unlike this study focused extensively on trading behavior of option market, those researches were just taken their attention to model-driven option pricing. For example, Black-Scholes (B-S) model is one of the most famous option pricing models. However, the arguments of B-S model are previously mentioned by some pricing models reviewing. This paper following suggests the importance of the dynamic character for option pricing, which is also the reason why using the genetic algorithm (GA). Because of its natural selection and species evolution, this study proposed a hybrid model, the Genetic-BS model which combining GA and B-S to estimate the price more accurate. As for the final experiments, the result shows that the output estimated price with lower MAE value than the calculated price by either B-S model or its enhanced one, Gram-Charlier garch (G-C garch) model. Finally, this work would conclude that the Genetic-BS pricing model is exactly practical.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, Genetic-BS, option pricing model.

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892 A Comparative Study of the Techno-Economic Performance of the Linear Fresnel Reflector Using Direct and Indirect Steam Generation: A Case Study under High Direct Normal Irradiance

Authors: Ahmed Aljudaya, Derek Ingham, Lin Ma, Kevin Hughes, Mohammed Pourkashanian

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Researchers, power companies, and state politicians have given concentrated solar power (CSP) much attention due to its capacity to generate large amounts of electricity whereas overcoming the intermittent nature of solar resources. The Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) is a well-known CSP technology type for being inexpensive, having a low land use factor, and suffering from low optical efficiency. The LFR was considered a cost-effective alternative option to the Parabolic Trough Collector (PTC) because of its simplistic design, and this often outweighs its lower efficiency. The LFR power plants commercially generate steam directly and indirectly in order to produce electricity with high technical efficiency and lower its costs. The purpose of this important analysis is to compare the annual performance of the Direct Steam Generation (DSG) and Indirect Steam Generation (ISG) of LFR power plants using molten salt and other different Heat Transfer Fluids (HTF) to investigate their technical and economic effects. A 50 MWe solar-only system is examined as a case study for both steam production methods in extreme weather conditions. In addition, a parametric analysis is carried out to determine the optimal solar field size that provides the lowest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) while achieving the highest technical performance. As a result of optimizing the optimum solar field size, the solar multiple (SM) is found to be between 1.2 – 1.5 in order to achieve as low as 9 Cent/KWh for the DSG of the LFR. In addition, the power plant is capable of producing around 141 GWh annually and up to 36% of the capacity factor, whereas the ISG produces less energy at a higher cost. The optimization results show that the DSG’s performance overcomes the ISG in producing around 3% more annual energy, 2% lower LCOE, and 28% less capital cost.

Keywords: Concentrated Solar Power, Levelized cost of electricity, Linear Fresnel reflectors, Steam generation.

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891 Predicting Individual Investors- Intention to Invest: An Experimental Analysis of Attitude as a Mediator

Authors: Azwadi Ali

Abstract:

The survival of publicly listed companies largely depends on their stocks being liquidly traded. This goal can be achieved when new investors are attracted to invest on companies- stocks. Among different groups of investors, individual investors are generally less able to objectively evaluate companies- risks and returns, and tend to be emotionally biased in their investing decisions. Therefore their decisions may be formed as a result of perceived risks and returns, and influenced by companies- images. This study finds that perceived risk, perceived returns and trust directly affect individual investors- trading decisions while attitude towards brand partially mediates the relationships. This finding suggests that, in courting individual investors, companies still need to perform financially while building a good image can result in their stocks being accepted quicker than the stocks of good performing companies with hidden images.

Keywords: Behavioral Finance, Investment, Attitude towardsBrand, Partial Least Squares

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890 Technical Analysis of Combined Solar Water Heating Systems for Cold Climate Regions

Authors: Hossein Lotfizadeh, André McDonald, Amit Kumar

Abstract:

Renewable energy resources, which can supplement space and water heating for residential buildings, can have a noticeable impact on natural gas consumption and air pollution. This study considers a technical analysis of a combined solar water heating system with evacuated tube solar collectors for different solar coverage, ranging from 20% to 100% of the total roof area of a typical residential building located in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The alternative heating systems were conventional (non-condensing) and condensing tankless water heaters and condensing boilers that were coupled to solar water heating systems. The performance of the alternative heating systems was compared to a traditional heating system, consisting of a conventional boiler, applied to houses of various gross floor areas. A comparison among the annual natural gas consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation, and emissions for the various house sizes indicated that the combined solar heating system can reduce the natural gas consumption and CO2 emissions, and increase CO2 mitigation for all the systems that were studied. The results suggest that solar water heating systems are potentially beneficial for residential heating system applications in terms of energy savings and CO2 mitigation.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, CO2 mitigation, natural gas consumption, solar water heating system, tankless water heater.

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889 Benefits of Construction Management Implications and Processes by Projects Managers on Project Completion

Authors: Mamoon Mousa Atout

Abstract:

Projects managers in construction industry usually face a difficult organizational environment especially if the project is unique. The organization lacks the processes to practice construction management correctly, and the executive’s technical managers who have lack of experience in playing their role and responsibilities correctly. Project managers need to adopt best practices that allow them to do things effectively to make sure that the project can be delivered without any delay even though the executive’s technical managers should follow a certain process to avoid any factor might cause any delay during the project life cycle. The purpose of the paper is to examine the awareness level of projects managers about construction management processes, tools, techniques and implications to complete projects on time. The outcome and the results of the study are prepared based on the designed questionnaires and interviews conducted with many project managers. The method used in this paper is a quantitative study. A survey with a sample of 100 respondents was prepared and distributed in a construction company in Dubai, which includes nine questions to examine the level of their awareness. This research will also identify the necessary benefits of processes of construction management that has to be adopted by projects managers to mitigate the maximum potential problems which might cause any delay to the project life cycle.

Keywords: Construction Methodology, Design Process, Project Managers, Scheduling and Resource Planning.

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888 SMaTTS: Standard Malay Text to Speech System

Authors: Othman O. Khalifa, Zakiah Hanim Ahmad, Teddy Surya Gunawan

Abstract:

This paper presents a rule-based text- to- speech (TTS) Synthesis System for Standard Malay, namely SMaTTS. The proposed system using sinusoidal method and some pre- recorded wave files in generating speech for the system. The use of phone database significantly decreases the amount of computer memory space used, thus making the system very light and embeddable. The overall system was comprised of two phases the Natural Language Processing (NLP) that consisted of the high-level processing of text analysis, phonetic analysis, text normalization and morphophonemic module. The module was designed specially for SM to overcome few problems in defining the rules for SM orthography system before it can be passed to the DSP module. The second phase is the Digital Signal Processing (DSP) which operated on the low-level process of the speech waveform generation. A developed an intelligible and adequately natural sounding formant-based speech synthesis system with a light and user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI) is introduced. A Standard Malay Language (SM) phoneme set and an inclusive set of phone database have been constructed carefully for this phone-based speech synthesizer. By applying the generative phonology, a comprehensive letter-to-sound (LTS) rules and a pronunciation lexicon have been invented for SMaTTS. As for the evaluation tests, a set of Diagnostic Rhyme Test (DRT) word list was compiled and several experiments have been performed to evaluate the quality of the synthesized speech by analyzing the Mean Opinion Score (MOS) obtained. The overall performance of the system as well as the room for improvements was thoroughly discussed.

Keywords: Natural Language Processing, Text-To-Speech (TTS), Diphone, source filter, low-/ high- level synthesis.

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887 A Quantitative Approach to Strategic Design of Component-Based Business Process Models

Authors: Eakong Atiptamvaree, Twittie Senivongse

Abstract:

A new paradigm for software design and development models software by its business process, translates the model into a process execution language, and has it run by a supporting execution engine. This process-oriented paradigm promotes modeling of software by less technical users or business analysts as well as rapid development. Since business process models may be shared by different organizations and sometimes even by different business domains, it is interesting to apply a technique used in traditional software component technology to design reusable business processes. This paper discusses an approach to apply a technique for software component fabrication to the design of process-oriented software units, called process components. These process components result from decomposing a business process of a particular application domain into subprocesses with an aim that the process components can be reusable in different process-based software models. The approach is quantitative because the quality of process component design is measured from technical features of the process components. The approach is also strategic because the measured quality is determined against business-oriented component management goals. A software tool has been developed to measure how good a process component design is, according to the required managerial goals and comparing to other designs. We also discuss how we benefit from reusable process components.

Keywords: Business process model, process component, component management goals, measurement

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886 Maya Semantic Technique: A Mathematical Technique Used to Determine Partial Semantics for Declarative Sentences

Authors: Marcia T. Mitchell

Abstract:

This research uses computational linguistics, an area of study that employs a computer to process natural language, and aims at discerning the patterns that exist in declarative sentences used in technical texts. The approach is mathematical, and the focus is on instructional texts found on web pages. The technique developed by the author and named the MAYA Semantic Technique is used here and organized into four stages. In the first stage, the parts of speech in each sentence are identified. In the second stage, the subject of the sentence is determined. In the third stage, MAYA performs a frequency analysis on the remaining words to determine the verb and its object. In the fourth stage, MAYA does statistical analysis to determine the content of the web page. The advantage of the MAYA Semantic Technique lies in its use of mathematical principles to represent grammatical operations which assist processing and accuracy if performed on unambiguous text. The MAYA Semantic Technique is part of a proposed architecture for an entire web-based intelligent tutoring system. On a sample set of sentences, partial semantics derived using the MAYA Semantic Technique were approximately 80% accurate. The system currently processes technical text in one domain, namely Cµ programming. In this domain all the keywords and programming concepts are known and understood.

Keywords: Natural language understanding, computational linguistics, knowledge representation, linguistic theories.

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