Search results for: loss probability.

Authors: Wentian Shi, Daming Shi, Maysam Orouskhani, Feng Tian

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Currently the most prevalent deep learning methods require a large amount of data for training, whereas few-shot learning tries to learn a model from limited data without extensive retraining. In this paper, we present a loss function based on triplet loss for solving few-shot problem using metric based learning. Instead of setting the margin distance in triplet loss as a constant number empirically, we propose an adaptive margin distance strategy to obtain the appropriate margin distance automatically. We implement the strategy in the deep siamese network for deep metric embedding, by utilizing an optimization approach by penalizing the worst case and rewarding the best. Our experiments on image recognition and co-segmentation model demonstrate that using our proposed triplet loss with adaptive margin distance can significantly improve the performance.

Keywords: Few-shot learning, triplet network, adaptive margin, deep learning.

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Authors: C. I. Abiodun, S. O. Azi, J. S. Ojo, P. Akinyemi

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The design of accurate and reliable mobile communication systems depends majorly on the suitability of path loss prediction methods and the adaptability of the methods to various environments of interest. In this research, the results of the adaptability of radio channel behavior are presented based on practical measurements carried out in the 1800 MHz frequency band. The measurements are carried out in typical urban, suburban and rural environments in Ekiti State, Southwestern part of Nigeria. A total number of seven base stations of MTN GSM service located in the studied environments were monitored. Path loss and break point distances were deduced from the measured received signal strength (RSS) and a practical path loss model is proposed based on the deduced break point distances. The proposed two slope model, regression line and four existing path loss models were compared with the measured path loss values. The standard deviations of each model with respect to the measured path loss were estimated for each base station. The proposed model and regression line exhibited lowest standard deviations followed by the Cost231-Hata model when compared with the Erceg Ericsson and SUI models. Generally, the proposed two-slope model shows closest agreement with the measured values with a mean error values of 2 to 6 dB. These results show that, either the proposed two slope model or Cost 231-Hata model may be used to predict path loss values in mobile micro cell coverage in the well-considered environments. Information from this work will be useful for link design of microwave band wireless access systems in the region.

Keywords: Break-point distances, path loss models, path loss exponent, received signal strength.

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Authors: S. Dan'azumi, S. Shamsudin, A. A. Rahman

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Rainfall data at fine resolution and knowledge of its characteristics plays a major role in the efficient design and operation of agricultural, telecommunication, runoff and erosion control as well as water quality control systems. The paper is aimed to study the statistical distribution of hourly rainfall depth for 12 representative stations spread across Peninsular Malaysia. Hourly rainfall data of 10 to 22 years period were collected and its statistical characteristics were estimated. Three probability distributions namely, Generalized Pareto, Exponential and Gamma distributions were proposed to model the hourly rainfall depth, and three goodness-of-fit tests, namely, Kolmogorov-Sminov, Anderson-Darling and Chi-Squared tests were used to evaluate their fitness. Result indicates that the east cost of the Peninsular receives higher depth of rainfall as compared to west coast. However, the rainfall frequency is found to be irregular. Also result from the goodness-of-fit tests show that all the three models fit the rainfall data at 1% level of significance. However, Generalized Pareto fits better than Exponential and Gamma distributions and is therefore recommended as the best fit.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, Hourly rainfall, Malaysia, Probability distribution.

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Authors: Mussa I. Mgwatu, Reuben R. M. Kainkwa

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Wind is among the potential energy resources which can be harnessed to generate wind energy for conversion into electrical power. Due to the variability of wind speed with time and height, it becomes difficult to predict the generated wind energy more optimally. In this paper, an attempt is made to establish a probabilistic model fitting the wind speed data recorded at Makambako site in Tanzania. Wind speeds and direction were respectively measured using anemometer (type AN1) and wind Vane (type WD1) both supplied by Delta-T-Devices at a measurement height of 2 m. Wind speeds were then extrapolated for the height of 10 m using power law equation with an exponent of 0.47. Data were analysed using MINITAB statistical software to show the variability of wind speeds with time and height, and to determine the underlying probability model of the extrapolated wind speed data. The results show that wind speeds at Makambako site vary cyclically over time; and they conform to the Weibull probability distribution. From these results, Weibull probability density function can be used to predict the wind energy.

Keywords: Probabilistic models, wind speed, wind energy

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Authors: Wojciech Rejchel

Abstract:

The problem of ranking (rank regression) has become popular in the machine learning community. This theory relates to problems, in which one has to predict (guess) the order between objects on the basis of vectors describing their observed features. In many ranking algorithms a convex loss function is used instead of the 0-1 loss. It makes these procedures computationally efficient. Hence, convex risk minimizers and their statistical properties are investigated in this paper. Fast rates of convergence are obtained under conditions, that look similarly to the ones from the classification theory. Methods used in this paper come from the theory of U-processes as well as empirical processes.

Keywords: Convex loss function, empirical risk minimization, empirical process, U-process, boosting, euclidean family.

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Authors: S. Olyaee, M. Seifouri, A. Nikoosohbat, M. Shams Esfand Abadi

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Photonic Crystal Fibers (PCFs) can be used in optical communications as transmission lines. For this reason, the PCFs with low confinement loss, low chromatic dispersion, and low nonlinear effects are highly suitable transmission media. In this paper, we introduce a new design of index-guiding nanostructured photonic crystal fiber (IG-NPCF) with ultra-low chromatic dispersion, low nonlinearity effects, and low confinement loss. Relatively low dispersion is achieved in the wavelength range of 1200 to 1600nm using the proposed design. According to the new structure of nanostructured PCF presented in this study, the chromatic dispersion slope is -30(ps/km.nm) and the confinement loss reaches below 10-7 dB/km. While in the wavelength range mentioned above at the same time an effective area of more than 50.2μm2 is obtained.

Keywords: Optical communication systems, nanostructured, index-guiding, dispersion, confinement loss, photonic crystal fiber.

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Authors: Takeshi Takeda

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An experiment utilizing the ROSA/LSTF (rig of safety assessment/large-scale test facility) simulated a 1.9% vessel upper head small-break loss-of-coolant accident with an accident management (AM) measure under the total failure of high-pressure injection system of emergency core cooling system in a pressurized water reactor. Steam generator (SG) secondary-side depressurization on the AM measure was started by fully opening relief valves in both SGs when the maximum core exit temperature rose to 623 K. A large increase took place in the cladding surface temperature of simulated fuel rods on account of a late and slow response of core exit thermocouples during core boil-off. The author analyzed the LSTF test by reference to the matrix of an integral effect test for the validation of a thermal-hydraulic system code. Problems remained in predicting the primary coolant distribution and the core exit temperature with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code. The uncertainty analysis results of the RELAP5 code confirmed that the sample size with respect to the order statistics influences the value of peak cladding temperature with a 95% probability at a 95% confidence level, and the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient.

Keywords: LSTF, LOCA, uncertainty analysis, RELAP5.

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. This finding needs to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: Floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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Authors: Hye-Young Shin, Chan Kee Park

Abstract:

Background: To compare the thinning patterns of the ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) as measured using Cirrus high-definition optical coherence tomography (HD-OCT) in patients with visual field (VF) defects that respect the vertical meridian. Methods: Twenty eyes of eleven patients with VF defects that respect the vertical meridian were enrolled retrospectively. The thicknesses of the macular GCIPL and pRNFL were measured using Cirrus HD-OCT. The 5% and 1% thinning area index (TAI) was calculated as the proportion of abnormally thin sectors at the 5% and 1% probability level within the area corresponding to the affected VF. The 5% and 1% TAI were compared between the GCIPL and pRNFL measurements. Results: The color-coded GCIPL deviation map showed a characteristic vertical thinning pattern of the GCIPL, which is also seen in the VF of patients with brain lesions. The 5% and 1% TAI were significantly higher in the GCIPL measurements than in the pRNFL measurements (all P < 0.01). Conclusions: Macular GCIPL analysis clearly visualized a characteristic topographic pattern of retinal ganglion cell (RGC) loss in patients with VF defects that respect the vertical meridian, unlike pRNFL measurements. Macular GCIPL measurements provide more valuable information than pRNFL measurements for detecting the loss of RGCs in patients with retrograde degeneration of the optic nerve fibers.

Keywords: Brain lesion, Macular ganglion cell-Inner plexiform layer, Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography.

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Authors: R. K. Saxena, Ravi Saxena

Abstract:

In view of their importance and usefulness in reliability theory and probability distributions, several generalizations of the inverse Gaussian distribution and the Krtzel function are investigated in recent years. This has motivated the authors to introduce and study a new generalization of the inverse Gaussian distribution and the Krtzel function associated with a product of a Bessel function of the third kind )(zKQ and a Z - Fox-Wright generalized hyper geometric function introduced in this paper. The introduced function turns out to be a unified gamma-type function. Its incomplete forms are also discussed. Several properties of this gamma-type function are obtained. By means of this generalized function, we introduce a generalization of inverse Gaussian distribution, which is useful in reliability analysis, diffusion processes, and radio techniques etc. The inverse Gaussian distribution thus introduced also provides a generalization of the Krtzel function. Some basic statistical functions associated with this probability density function, such as moments, the Mellin transform, the moment generating function, the hazard rate function, and the mean residue life function are also obtained.KeywordsFox-Wright function, Inverse Gaussian distribution, Krtzel function & Bessel function of the third kind.

Keywords: Fox-Wright function, Inverse Gaussian distribution, Krtzel function & Bessel function of the third kind.

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Authors: Hyung Suk Kang

Abstract:

A triangular fin with variable fin base thickness is analyzed and optimized using a two-dimensional analytical method. The influence of fin base height and fin base thickness on the temperature in the fin is listed. For the fixed fin volumes, the maximum heat loss, the corresponding optimum fin effectiveness, fin base height and fin tip length as a function of the fin base thickness, convection characteristic number and dimensionless fin volume are represented. One of the results shows that the optimum heat loss increases whereas the corresponding optimum fin effectiveness decreases with the increase of fin volume.

Keywords: A triangular fin, Convection characteristic number, Heat loss, Fin base thickness.

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Authors: Biplab Bag

Abstract:

In this paper, the design of a coaxial feed single layer rectangular microstrip patch antenna for three different wireless communication band applications is presented. The proposed antenna is designed by using substrate Roger RT/duroid 5880 having permittivity of about 2.2 and tangent loss of 0.0009. The characteristics of the substrate are designed and to evaluate the performance of modeled antenna using HFSS v.11 EM simulator, from Ansoft. The proposed antenna has small in size and operates at 2.25GHz, 3.76GHz and 5.23GHz suitable for mobile satellite service (MSS) network, WiMAX and WLAN applications. The dimension of the patch and slots are optimized to obtain these desired functional frequency ranges. The simulation results with frequency response, radiation pattern and return loss, VSWR, Input Impedance are presented with appropriate table and graph.

Keywords: Microstrip, Tangent Loss, MSS, WiMAX, WLAN, Radiation Pattern, Return Loss, VSWR.

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Authors: Chan Hee Park, Arim Lee, Jung Min Lee, Joo Hyun Moon

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Accident in spent fuel pool (SFP) of Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 showed the importance of continuous monitoring of the key environmental parameters such as water temperature, water level, and radiation level in the SFP at accident conditions. Because the SFP water temperature is one of the key parameters indicating SFP conditions, its behavior at accident conditions shall be understood to prepare appropriate measures. This study estimated temporal change in the SFP water temperature at Kori Unit 1 with 587 MWe for 1 hour after initiation of a loss-of-pool-cooling accident. For the estimation, ANSYS CFX 13.0 code was used. The estimation showed that the increasing rate of the water temperature was 3.90C per hour and the SFP water temperature could reach 1000C in 25.6 hours after the initiation of loss-of-pool-cooling accident.

Keywords: Spent fuel pool, water temperature, Kori Unit 1, a loss-of-pool-cooling accident.

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Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

Individually Network reconfiguration or Capacitor control perform well in minimizing power loss and improving voltage profile of the distribution system. But for heavy reactive power loads network reconfiguration and for heavy active power loads capacitor placement can not effectively reduce power loss and enhance voltage profiles in the system. In this paper, an hybrid approach that combine network reconfiguration and capacitor placement using Harmony Search Algorithm (HSA) is proposed to minimize power loss reduction and improve voltage profile. The proposed approach is tested on standard IEEE 33 and 16 bus systems. Computational results show that the proposed hybrid approach can minimize losses more efficiently than Network reconfiguration or Capacitor control. The results of proposed method are also compared with results obtained by Simulated Annealing (SA). The proposed method has outperformed in terms of the quality of solution compared to SA.

Keywords: Capacitor Control, Network Reconfiguration, HarmonySearch Algorithm, Loss Reduction, Voltage Profile.

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Authors: C. B. K.Rao, Rooban Kumar

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Cement concrete is a complex mixture of different materials. Behaviour of concrete depends on its mix proportions and constituents when it is subjected to elevated temperatures. Principal effects due to elevated temperatures are loss in compressive strength, loss in weight or mass, change in colour and spall of concrete. The experimental results of normal concrete and high strength concrete subjected elevated temperatures at 200°C, 400°C, 600°C, and 800°C and different cooling regimes viz. air cooling, water quenching on different grade of concrete are reported in this paper.

Keywords: High strength concrete, Normal strength concrete, Elevated Temperature, Loss of mass.

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Authors: Panam. Zarfam, Mohsen. Javan Pour

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Recently, analysis and designing of the structures based on the Reliability theory have been the center of attention. Reason of this attention is the existence of the natural and random structural parameters such as the material specification, external loads, geometric dimensions etc. By means of the Reliability theory, uncertainties resulted from the statistical nature of the structural parameters can be changed into the mathematical equations and the safety and operational considerations can be considered in the designing process. According to this theory, it is possible to study the destruction probability of not only a specific element but also the entire system. Therefore, after being assured of safety of every element, their reciprocal effects on the safety of the entire system can be investigated.

Keywords: Probability, Reliability, Statistics, Uncertainty

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong

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In this paper we proposed two new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. This situation occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments where the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. We propose two new confidence intervals for this problem based on the recent work of Searls [5] and the new method proposed in this paper for the first time. We derive analytic expressions for the coverage probability and the expected length of each confidence interval. Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their expected lengths.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation.

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Authors: Young S. Bang, Dong H. Yoon, Seung H. Yoo

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Emergency Core Coolant Bypass (ECC Bypass) has been regarded as an important phenomenon to peak cladding temperature of large-break loss-of-coolant-accidents (LBLOCA) in nuclear power plants (NPP). A modeling scheme to address the ECC Bypass phenomena and the calculation of LBLOCA using that scheme are discussed in the present paper. A hydraulic form loss coefficient (HFLC) from the reactor vessel downcomer to the broken cold leg is predicted by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code with a variation of the void fraction incoming from the downcomer. The maximum, mean, and minimum values of FLC are derived from the CFD results and are incorporated into the LBLOCA calculation using a system thermal-hydraulic code, MARS-KS. As a relevant parameter addressing the ECC Bypass phenomena, the FLC to the break and its range are proposed.

Keywords: CFD analysis, ECC Bypass, hydraulic form loss coefficient, system thermal-hydraulic code.

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Authors: C. M. M. Paschoal, D. do N. Souza, L. A. P. Santos

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In this study three commercial semiconductor devices were characterized in the laboratory for computed tomography dosimetry: one photodiode and two phototransistors. It was evaluated four responses to the irradiation: dose linearity, energy dependence, angular dependence and loss of sensitivity after X ray exposure. The results showed that the three devices have proportional response with the air kerma; the energy dependence displayed for each device suggests that some calibration factors would be applied for each one; the angular dependence showed a similar pattern among the three electronic components. In respect to the fourth parameter analyzed, one phototransistor has the highest sensitivity however it also showed the greatest loss of sensitivity with the accumulated dose. The photodiode was the device with the smaller sensitivity to radiation, on the other hand, the loss of sensitivity after irradiation is negligible. Since high accuracy is a desired feature for a dosimeter, the photodiode can be the most suitable of the three devices for dosimetry in tomography. The phototransistors can also be used for CT dosimetry, however it would be necessary a correction factor due to loss of sensitivity with accumulated dose.

Keywords: Dosimetry, computed tomography, phototransistor, photodiode

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Authors: Payam Asadi, Ali Bakhshi

Abstract:

In this study, a frame work for verification of famous seismic codes is utilized. To verify the seismic codes performance, damage quantity of RC frames is compared with the target performance. Due to the randomness property of seismic design and earthquake loads excitation, in this paper, fragility curves are developed. These diagrams are utilized to evaluate performance level of structures which are designed by the seismic codes. These diagrams further illustrate the effect of load combination and reduction factors of codes on probability of damage exceedance. Two types of structures; very high important structures with high ductility and medium important structures with intermediate ductility are designed by different seismic codes. The Results reveal that usually lower damage ratio generate lower probability of exceedance. In addition, the findings indicate that there are buildings with higher quantity of bars which they have higher probability of damage exceedance. Life-cycle cost analysis utilized for comparison and final decision making process.

Keywords: RC frame, fragility curve, performance-base design, life-cycle cost analyses, seismic design codes.

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Authors: Valmir Baloshi, Fran Gjoka, Nehat Çollaku, Elvin Toromani

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As a sediment production mechanism, soil erosion is the main environmental threat to the Bovilla watershed, including the decline of water quality of the Bovilla reservoir that provides drinking water to Tirana city (the capital of Albania). Therefore, an experiment with 25 erosion plots for soil erosion monitoring has been set up since June 2017. The aim was to determine the soil loss on plot and watershed scale in Bovilla watershed (Tirana region) for implementation of soil and water protection measures or payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs. The results of erosion monitoring for the period June 2017 - May 2018 showed that the highest values of surface runoff were noted in bare land of 38829.91 liters on slope of 74% and the lowest values in forest land of 12840.6 liters on slope of 64% while the highest values of soil loss were found in bare land of 595.15 t/ha on slope of 62% and lowest values in forest land of 18.99 t/ha on slope of 64%. These values are much higher than the average rate of soil loss in the European Union (2.46 ton/ha/year). In the same sloping class, the soil loss was reduced from orchard or bare land to the forest land, and in the same category of land use, the soil loss increased with increasing land slope. It is necessary to conduct chemical analyses of sediments to determine the amount of chemical elements leached out of the soil and end up in the reservoir of Bovilla. It is concluded that PES programs should be implemented for rehabilitation of sub-watersheds Ranxe, Vilez and Zall-Bastar of the Bovilla watershed with valuable conservation practices.

Keywords: ANOVA, Bovilla, land cover, slope, soil loss, watershed management.

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Authors: Babu Sena Paul, Ratnajit Bhattacharjee

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Relay based communication has gained considerable importance in the recent years. In this paper we find the end-toend statistics of a two hop non-regenerative relay branch, each hop being Nakagami-m faded. Closed form expressions for the probability density functions of the signal envelope at the output of a selection combiner and a maximal ratio combiner at the destination node are also derived and analytical formulations are verified through computer simulation. These density functions are useful in evaluating the system performance in terms of bit error rate and outage probability.

Keywords: co-operative diversity, diversity combining, maximal ratio combining, selection combining.

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Authors: A.L.Deghal.Cheridi, A.Chaker, A.Loubar

Abstract:

loss of feedwater accident is one of the frequently sever accidents in steam boiler facilities. It threatens the system structural integrity and generates serious hazards and economic loses. The safety analysis of the thermal installations, based extensively on the numeric simulation. The simulation analysis using realistic computer codes like Relap5/Mod3.2 will help understand steam boiler thermal-hydraulic behavior during normal and abnormal conditions. In this study, we are interested on the evaluation of the radiant steam boiler assessment and response to loss-of-feedwater accident. Pressure, temperature and flow rate profiles are presented in various steam boiler system components. The obtained results demonstrate the importance and capability of the Relap5/Mod3.2 code in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the steam boiler facilities.

Keywords: Radiant steam boiler, Relap5/Mod3.2 code system, Steady-state simulation, Transient simulation, Loss of feedwateraccident

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Authors: Sadovska V.

Abstract:

The progress of concentrations of particular heavy metals was assessed in chosen localities in region Moravia, the Czech Republic, from 2007 to 2009. Particular metals were observed in localities with various types and characterization of zone. Pb, Ni, As and Cd were emphasized as a result of their toxicity and potential adverse health effect to the exposed population. The progress of metal concentrations and their health effects in the most polluted localities were examined. According to the results, the air pollution limit values were not exceeded. Based on the health risk assessment, the probability of developing tumorous diseases is acceptable, except for the increased probability of cancer risk from long-term exposure to As.

Keywords: Air pollution, heavy metals, health risk assessment, individual lifetime cancer risk

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Authors: L. Estrada, D. Torres, H. Toral

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In this work, a characterization and modeling of packet loss of a Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) communication is developed. The distributions of the number of consecutive received and lost packets (namely gap and burst) are modeled from the transition probabilities of two-state and four-state model. Measurements show that both models describe adequately the burst distribution, but the decay of gap distribution for non-homogeneous losses is better fit by the four-state model. The respective probabilities of transition between states for each model were estimated with a proposed algorithm from a set of monitored VoIP calls in order to obtain representative minimum, maximum and average values for both models.

Keywords: Packet loss, gap and burst distribution, Markovchain, VoIP measurements.

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Authors: Lu Yanhui, Zhang Lizhi, Yin Changchuan, Yue Guangxin

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In this paper, an adaptive radio resource allocation (RRA) algorithm applying to multiple traffic OFDMA system is proposed, which distributes sub-carrier and loading bits among users according to their different QoS requirements and traffic class. By classifying and prioritizing the users based on their traffic characteristic and ensuring resource for higher priority users, the scheme decreases tremendously the outage probability of the users requiring a real time transmission without impact on the spectrum efficiency of system, as well as the outage probability of data users is not increased compared with the RRA methods published.

Keywords: OFDMA, adaptive radio resource allocation, QoS.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: Adrian O’Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: Empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient.

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Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, Epidemiological model, Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process, Transition Probability, Statistics South Africa.

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