%0 Journal Article
	%A Oscar Javier Herrera and  Manuel Ángel Camacho
	%D 2015
	%J International Journal of Economics and Management Engineering
	%B World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology
	%I Open Science Index 102, 2015
	%T Forecast Based on an Empirical Probability Function with an Adjusted Error Using Propagation of Error
	%U https://publications.waset.org/pdf/10001699
	%V 102
	%X This paper addresses a cutting edge method of
business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability
function when the historical behavior of the data is random.
Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical
method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was
conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning
as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its
value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake
investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on
the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering
the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of
communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In
conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the
adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its
services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the
client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation
for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the
replenishment of stock.
	%P 1935 - 1939