Search results for: Real Options

Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: Mohamed Ouzzane, Mahmoud Bady

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Due to energy and environment context, research is looking for the use of clean and energy efficient system in cooling industry. In this regard, the ejector represents one of the promising solutions. The thermal ejector is a passive component used for thermal compression in refrigeration and cooling systems, usually activated by heat either waste or solar. The present study introduces a theoretical analysis of the cooling system which uses a gas ejector thermal compression. A theoretical model is developed and applied for the design and simulation of the ejector, as well as the whole cooling system. Besides the conservation equations of mass, energy and momentum, the gas dynamic equations, state equations, isentropic relations as well as some appropriate assumptions are applied to simulate the flow and mixing in the ejector. This model coupled with the equations of the other components (condenser, evaporator, pump, and generator) is used to analyze profiles of pressure and velocity (Mach number), as well as evaluation of the cycle cooling capacity. A FORTRAN program is developed to carry out the investigation. Properties of refrigerant R134a are calculated using real gas equations. Among many parameters, it is thought that the generator pressure is the cornerstone in the cycle, and hence considered as the key parameter in this investigation. Results show that the generator pressure has a great effect on the ejector and on the whole cooling system. At high generator pressures, strong shock waves inside the ejector are created, which lead to significant condenser pressure at the ejector exit. Additionally, at higher generator pressures, the designed system can deliver cooling capacity for high condensing pressure (hot season).

Keywords: Air cooling system, refrigeration, thermal ejector, thermal compression.

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Authors: Atiqul Islam, Shamim Akhter, Tumnun E. Mursalin

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Least Development Countries (LDC) like Bangladesh, whose 25% revenue earning is achieved from Textile export, requires producing less defective textile for minimizing production cost and time. Inspection processes done on these industries are mostly manual and time consuming. To reduce error on identifying fabric defects requires more automotive and accurate inspection process. Considering this lacking, this research implements a Textile Defect Recognizer which uses computer vision methodology with the combination of multi-layer neural networks to identify four classifications of textile defects. The recognizer, suitable for LDC countries, identifies the fabric defects within economical cost and produces less error prone inspection system in real time. In order to generate input set for the neural network, primarily the recognizer captures digital fabric images by image acquisition device and converts the RGB images into binary images by restoration process and local threshold techniques. Later, the output of the processed image, the area of the faulty portion, the number of objects of the image and the sharp factor of the image, are feed backed as an input layer to the neural network which uses back propagation algorithm to compute the weighted factors and generates the desired classifications of defects as an output.

Keywords: Computer vision, image acquisition device, machine vision, multi-layer neural networks.

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Authors: Ya Lv, Benjamin Ong Wei Lin, Wanli Niu, Benjamin Seah Chin Tat

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This article presents a methodology that improves reliability and cyclability of 2nd-life Li-ion battery system repurposed as energy storage system (ESS). Most of the 2nd-life retired battery systems in market have module/pack-level state of health (SOH) indicator, which is utilized for guiding appropriate depth of discharge (DOD) in the application of ESS. Due to the lack of cell-level SOH indication, the different degrading behaviors among various cells cannot be identified upon reaching retired status; in the end, considering end of life (EOL) loss and pack-level DOD, the repurposed ESS has to be oversized by > 1.5 times to complement the application requirement of reliability and cyclability. This proposed battery grading algorithm, using non-invasive methodology, is able to detect outlier cells based on historical voltage data and calculate cell-level historical maximum temperature data using semi-analytic methodology. In this way, the individual battery cell in the 2nd-life battery system can be graded in terms of SOH on basis of the historical voltage fluctuation and estimated historical maximum temperature variation. These grades will have corresponding DOD grades in the application of the repurposed ESS to enhance the system reliability and cyclability. In all, this introduced battery grading algorithm is non-invasive, compatible with all kinds of retired Li-ion battery systems which lack of cell-level SOH indication, as well as potentially being embedded into battery management software for preventive maintenance and real-time cyclability optimization.

Keywords: Battery grading algorithm, 2nd-life repurposing battery system, semi-analytic methodology, reliability and cyclability.

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Authors: Paola Comella, Vincenzo Francani, Paola Gattinoni

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This paper presents the Colzate-Vertova landslide, a Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD) located in the Seriana Valley, Northern Italy. The paper aims at describing the development as well as evaluating the factors that influence the evolution of the landslide. After defining the conceptual model of the landslide, numerical simulations were developed using a finite element numerical model, first with a two-dimensional domain, and later with a three-dimensional one. The results of the 2-D model showed a displacement field typical of a sackung, as a consequence of the erosion along the Seriana Valley. The analysis also showed that the groundwater flow could locally affect the slope stability, bringing about a reduction in the safety factor, but without reaching failure conditions. The sensitivity analysis carried out on the strength parameters pointed out that slope failures could be reached only for relevant reduction of the geotechnical characteristics. Such a result does not fit the real conditions observed on site, where a number of small failures often develop all along the hillslope. The 3-D model gave a more comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the DSGSD, also considering the border effects. The results showed that the convex profile of the slope favors the development of displacements along the lateral valley, with a relevant reduction in the safety factor, justifying the existing landslides.

Keywords: Deep seated gravitational slope deformation, Italy, landslide, numerical modeling.

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Authors: Mi-Hyang Lee, Seung-Hoon Han

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Korean traditional residences have been built with deep design issues for various values such as social, cultural, and environmental influences to be started from a few thousand years ago, but its meaning is being vanished due to the different lifestyles these days. It is necessary, therefore, to grasp the meaning of the Korea traditional building called Hanok and to get Korean people understand its real advantages. The purpose of this study is to propose a standardization methodology for evaluating comfort features towards Korean traditional houses. This paper is also trying to build an official standard evaluation system and to integrate aesthetic and psychological values induced from Hanok. Its comfort performance values could be divided into two large categories that are physical and psychological, and fourteen methods have been defined as the Korean Standards (KS). For this research, field survey data from representative Hanok types were collected for each method. This study also contains a qualitative in-depth analysis of the Hanok comfort index by the professions using AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and has examined the effect of the methods. As a result, this paper could define what methods can provide trustful outcomes and how to evaluate the own strengths in aspects of spatial comfort of Hanok using suggested procedures towards the spatial configuration of the traditional dwellings. This study has finally proposed an integrated development of a standardization methodology assessing the comfort performance for Korean traditional residences, and it is expected that they could evaluate inhabitants of the residents and interior environmental conditions especially structured by wood materials like Hanok.

Keywords: Hanok, comfort performance, human condition, analytical hierarchy process.

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Authors: Wenjun Zhang, Yunqing Du, Ming L. Wang

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Noninvasive diagnostics of diseases via breath analysis has attracted considerable scientific and clinical interest for many years and become more and more promising with the rapid advancements in nanotechnology and biotechnology. The volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled breath, which are mainly blood borne, particularly provide highly valuable information about individuals’ physiological and pathophysiological conditions. Additionally, breath analysis is noninvasive, real-time, painless, and agreeable to patients. We have developed a wireless sensor array based on single-stranded DNA (ssDNA)-functionalized single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNT) for the detection of a number of physiological indicators in breath. Seven DNA sequences were used to functionalize SWNT sensors to detect trace amount of methanol, benzene, dimethyl sulfide, hydrogen sulfide, acetone, and ethanol, which are indicators of heavy smoking, excessive drinking, and diseases such as lung cancer, breast cancer, and diabetes. Our test results indicated that DNA functionalized SWNT sensors exhibit great selectivity, sensitivity, and repeatability; and different molecules can be distinguished through pattern recognition enabled by this sensor array. Furthermore, the experimental sensing results are consistent with the Molecular Dynamics simulated ssDNAmolecular target interaction rankings. Thus, the DNA-SWNT sensor array has great potential to be applied in chemical or biomolecular detection for the noninvasive diagnostics of diseases and personal health monitoring.

Keywords: Breath analysis, DNA-SWNT sensor array, diagnosis, noninvasive.

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Authors: Mohammad Shahadat Hossain Chowdhury, Tania Taharima Chowdhary, Hasan Sarwar

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The challenge for software development house in Bangladesh is to find a path of using minimum process rather than CMMI or ISO type gigantic practice and process area. The small and medium size organization in Bangladesh wants to ensure minimum basic Software Process Improvement (SPI) in day to day operational activities. Perhaps, the basic practices will ensure to realize their company's improvement goals. This paper focuses on the key issues in basic software practices for small and medium size software organizations, who are unable to effort the CMMI, ISO, ITIL etc. compliance certifications. This research also suggests a basic software process practices model for Bangladesh and it will show the mapping of our suggestions with international best practice. In this IT competitive world for software process improvement, Small and medium size software companies that require collaboration and strengthening to transform their current perspective into inseparable global IT scenario. This research performed some investigations and analysis on some projects- life cycle, current good practice, effective approach, reality and pain area of practitioners, etc. We did some reasoning, root cause analysis, comparative analysis of various approach, method, practice and justifications of CMMI and real life. We did avoid reinventing the wheel, where our focus is for minimal practice, which will ensure a dignified satisfaction between organizations and software customer.

Keywords: Compare with CMMI practices, Key success factors, Small and medium software house, Software process improvement; Software process optimization.

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Authors: Ankit Sinha, Soham Banerjee, Pratik Chattopadhyay

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Automated product recognition in retail stores is an important real-world application in the domain of Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. In this paper, we consider the problem of automatically identifying the classes of the products placed on racks in retail stores from an image of the rack and information about the query/product images. We improve upon the existing approaches in terms of effectiveness and memory requirement by developing a two-stage object detection and recognition pipeline comprising of a Faster-RCNN-based object localizer that detects the object regions in the rack image and a ResNet-18-based image encoder that classifies  the detected regions into the appropriate classes. Each of the models is fine-tuned using appropriate data sets for better prediction and data augmentation is performed on each query image to prepare an extensive gallery set for fine-tuning the ResNet-18-based product recognition model. This encoder is trained using a triplet loss function following the strategy of online-hard-negative-mining for improved prediction. The proposed models are lightweight and can be connected in an end-to-end manner during deployment to automatically identify each product object placed in a rack image. Extensive experiments using Grozi-32k and GP-180 data sets verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Retail stores, Faster-RCNN, object localization, ResNet-18, triplet loss, data augmentation, product recognition.

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Authors: Se Kyung Oh, Young Hwan Yoon, Ary Bachtiar Krishna

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Nowadays, a passenger car suspension must has high performance criteria with light weight, low cost, and low energy consumption. Pilot controlled proportional valve is designed and analyzed to get small pressure change rate after blow-off, and to get a fast response of the damper, a reverse damping mechanism is adapted. The reverse continuous variable damper is designed as a HS-SH damper which offers good body control with reduced transferred input force from the tire, compared with any other type of suspension system. The damper structure is designed, so that rebound and compression damping forces can be tuned independently, of which the variable valve is placed externally. The rate of pressure change with respect to the flow rate after blow-off becomes smooth when the fixed orifice size increases, which means that the blow-off slope is controllable using the fixed orifice size. Damping forces are measured with the change of the solenoid current at the different piston velocities to confirm the maximum hysteresis of 20 N, linearity, and variance of damping force. The damping force variance is wide and continuous, and is controlled by the spool opening, of which scheme is usually adapted in proportional valves. The reverse continuous variable damper developed in this study is expected to be utilized in the semi-active suspension systems in passenger cars after its performance and simplicity of the design is confirmed through a real car test.

Keywords: Blow-off, damping force, pilot controlledproportional valve, reverse continuous damper.

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Authors: Brian H. Marsh

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Nitrogen fertilizer is the most used and often the most mismanaged nutrient input. Nitrogen management has tremendous implications on crop productivity, quality and environmental stewardship. Sufficient nitrogen is needed to optimum yield and quality. Soil and in-season plant tissue testing for nitrogen status are a time consuming and expensive process. Real time sensing of plant nitrogen status can be a useful tool in managing nitrogen inputs. The objectives of this project were to assess the reliability of remotely sensed non-destructive plant nitrogen measurements compared to wet chemistry data from sampled plant tissue, develop in-season nitrogen recommendations based on remotely sensed data for improved nitrogen use efficiency and assess the potential for determining yield and quality from remotely sensed data. Very good correlations were observed between early-season remotely sensed crop nitrogen status and plant nitrogen concentrations and subsequent in-season fertilizer recommendations. The transmittance/absorbance type meters gave the most accurate readings. Early in-season fertilizer recommendation would be to apply 40 kg nitrogen per hectare plus 15 kg nitrogen per hectare for each unit difference measured with the SPAD meter between the crop and reference area or 25 kg plus 13 kg per hectare for each unit difference measured with the CCM 200. Once the crop was sufficiently fertilized meter readings became inconclusive and were of no benefit for determining nitrogen status, silage yield and quality and grain yield and protein.

Keywords: Wheat, nitrogen fertilization, chlorophyll meter.

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Authors: Kanthida Kusonmano, Michael Netzer, Bernhard Pfeifer, Christian Baumgartner, Klaus R. Liedl, Armin Graber

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Availability of high dimensional biological datasets such as from gene expression, proteomic, and metabolic experiments can be leveraged for the diagnosis and prognosis of diseases. Many classification methods in this area have been studied to predict disease states and separate between predefined classes such as patients with a special disease versus healthy controls. However, most of the existing research only focuses on a specific dataset. There is a lack of generic comparison between classifiers, which might provide a guideline for biologists or bioinformaticians to select the proper algorithm for new datasets. In this study, we compare the performance of popular classifiers, which are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression, k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, and Random Forest based on mock datasets. We mimic common biological scenarios simulating various proportions of real discriminating biomarkers and different effect sizes thereof. The result shows that SVM performs quite stable and reaches a higher AUC compared to other methods. This may be explained due to the ability of SVM to minimize the probability of error. Moreover, Decision Tree with its good applicability for diagnosis and prognosis shows good performance in our experimental setup. Logistic Regression and Random Forest, however, strongly depend on the ratio of discriminators and perform better when having a higher number of discriminators.

Keywords: Classification, High dimensional data, Machine learning

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Authors: Han Guan Chew, Keith Yong Ngee Ng, Shan-Wei Fan

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In Singapore, talent retention is one of the most persistent and real issue companies have to grapple with due to the tight labour market. Being resource-scarce, Singapore depends solely on its talented pool of high quality human resource to sustain its competitive advantage in the global economy. But the complex and multifaceted nature of turnover phenomenon makes the prescription of effective talent retention strategies in such a competitive labour market very challenging, especially when it comes to monetary incentives, companies struggle to answer the question of “How much is enough?” By examining the interactive effects of perceived alternative employment opportunities, annual salary and satisfaction with compensation on the turnover intention of 102 Singapore Professionals, Managers, Executives and Technicians (PMET) through correlation analyses and multiple regressions, important insights into the psyche of the Singapore talent pool can be drawn. It is found that annual salary influence turnover intention indirectly through mediation and moderation effects on PMET’s satisfaction on compensation. PMET are also found to be heavily swayed by better external opportunities. This implies that talent retention strategies should not adopt a purely monetary based blanket approach but rather a comprehensive and holistic one that considers the dynamics of prevailing market conditions.

Keywords: Employee Turnover, High Performers, Knowledge Workers, Perceived Alternative Employment Opportunities Salary, Satisfaction on Compensation, Singapore PMET, Talent Retention.

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Authors: Hui Zhang, Ye Tian, Fang Ye, Ziming Guo

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Communication signal modulation recognition technology is one of the key technologies in the field of modern information warfare. At present, communication signal automatic modulation recognition methods are mainly divided into two major categories. One is the maximum likelihood hypothesis testing method based on decision theory, the other is a statistical pattern recognition method based on feature extraction. Now, the most commonly used is a statistical pattern recognition method, which includes feature extraction and classifier design. With the increasingly complex electromagnetic environment of communications, how to effectively extract the features of various signals at low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is a hot topic for scholars in various countries. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a feature extraction algorithm for the communication signal based on the improved Holder cloud feature. And the extreme learning machine (ELM) is used which aims at the problem of the real-time in the modern warfare to classify the extracted features. The algorithm extracts the digital features of the improved cloud model without deterministic information in a low SNR environment, and uses the improved cloud model to obtain more stable Holder cloud features and the performance of the algorithm is improved. This algorithm addresses the problem that a simple feature extraction algorithm based on Holder coefficient feature is difficult to recognize at low SNR, and it also has a better recognition accuracy. The results of simulations show that the approach in this paper still has a good classification result at low SNR, even when the SNR is -15dB, the recognition accuracy still reaches 76%.

Keywords: Communication signal, feature extraction, holder coefficient, improved cloud model.

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Authors: W. Loongyai, N. Saengsawang, W. Danvilai, C. Kridtayopas, P. Sopannarath, C. Bunchasak

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Betong chicken is a slow growing and a lean strain of chicken, while the rapid growth of broiler is accompanied by increased fat. We investigated the growth performance, fat accumulations, lipid serum biochemical levels and lipoprotein lipase (LPL) gene expression of female Betong (KU line) at the age of 4 and 6 weeks. A total of 80 female Betong chickens (KU line) and 80 female broiler chickens were reared under open system (each group had 4 replicates of 20 chicks per pen). The results showed that feed intake and average daily gain (ADG) of broiler chicken were significantly higher than Betong (KU line) (P < 0.01), while feed conversion ratio (FCR) of Betong (KU line) at week 6 were significantly lower than broiler chicken (P < 0.01) at 6 weeks. At 4 and 6 weeks, two birds per replicate were randomly selected and slaughtered. Carcass weight did not significantly differ between treatments; the percentage of abdominal fat and subcutaneous fat yield was higher in the broiler (P < 0.01) at 4 and 6 week. Total cholesterol and LDL level of broiler were higher than Betong (KU line) at 4 and 6 weeks (P < 0.05). Abdominal fat samples were collected for total RNA extraction. The cDNA was amplified using primers specific for LPL gene expression and analysed using real-time PCR. The results showed that the expression of LPL gene was not different when compared between Betong (KU line) and broiler chickens at the age of 4 and 6 weeks (P > 0.05). Our results indicated that broiler chickens had high growth rate and fat accumulation when compared with Betong (KU line) chickens, whereas LPL gene expression did not differ between breeds.

Keywords: Lipoprotein lipase gene, Betong (KU line), broiler, abdominal fat, gene expression.

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Authors: Yi-Feng Su, Chia-Tseng Chen, Hsueh-Lung Liao

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The objective of this research is to develop an advanced driver assistance system characterized with the functions of lane departure warning (LDW), forward collision warning (FCW) and adaptive front-lighting system (AFS). The system is mainly configured a CCD/CMOS camera to acquire the images of roadway ahead in association with the analysis made by an image-processing unit concerning the lane ahead and the preceding vehicles. The input image captured by a camera is used to recognize the lane and the preceding vehicle positions by image detection and DROI (Dynamic Range of Interesting) algorithms. Therefore, the system is able to issue real-time auditory and visual outputs of warning when a driver is departing the lane or driving too close to approach the preceding vehicle unwittingly so that the danger could be prevented from occurring. During the nighttime, in addition to the foregoing warning functions, the system is able to control the bending light of headlamp to provide an immediate light illumination when making a turn at a curved lane and adjust the level automatically to reduce the lighting interference against the oncoming vehicles driving in the opposite direction by the curvature of lane and the vanishing point estimations. The experimental results show that the integrated vehicle image system is robust to most environments such as the lane detection and preceding vehicle detection average accuracy performances are both above 90 %.

Keywords: Lane mark detection, lane departure warning (LDW), dynamic range of interesting (DROI), forward collision warning (FCW), adaptive front-lighting system (AFS).

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Authors: Chong-Yang Qiao

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Mobile augmented reality (MAR) tracking targets from the surroundings and aids operators for interactive data and procedures visualization, potential equipment and system understandably. Operators remotely communicate and coordinate with each other for the continuous tasks, information and data exchange between control room and work-site. In the routine work, distributed control system (DCS) monitoring and work-site manipulation require operators interact in real-time manners. The critical question is the improvement of user experience in cooperative works through applying Augmented Reality in the traditional industrial field. The purpose of this exploratory study is to find the cognitive model for the multiple task performance by MAR. In particular, the focus will be on the comparison between different tasks and environment factors which influence information processing. Three experiments use interface and interaction design, the content of start-up, maintenance and stop embedded in the mobile application. With the evaluation criteria of time demands and human errors, and analysis of the mental process and the behavior action during the multiple tasks, heuristic evaluation was used to find the operators performance with different situation factors, and record the information processing in recognition, interpretation, judgment and reasoning. The research will find the functional properties of MAR and constrain the development of the cognitive model. Conclusions can be drawn that suggest MAR is easy to use and useful for operators in the remote collaborative works.

Keywords: Mobile augmented reality, remote collaboration, user experience, cognitive model.

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Authors: Ritwik Dutta, Marilyn Wolf

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This paper describes the tradeoffs and the design from scratch of a self-contained, easy-to-use health dashboard software system that provides customizable data tracking for patients in smart homes. The system is made up of different software modules and comprises a front-end and a back-end component. Built with HTML, CSS, and JavaScript, the front-end allows adding users, logging into the system, selecting metrics, and specifying health goals. The backend consists of a NoSQL Mongo database, a Python script, and a SimpleHTTPServer written in Python. The database stores user profiles and health data in JSON format. The Python script makes use of the PyMongo driver library to query the database and displays formatted data as a daily snapshot of user health metrics against target goals. Any number of standard and custom metrics can be added to the system, and corresponding health data can be fed automatically, via sensor APIs or manually, as text or picture data files. A real-time METAR request API permits correlating weather data with patient health, and an advanced query system is implemented to allow trend analysis of selected health metrics over custom time intervals. Available on the GitHub repository system, the project is free to use for academic purposes of learning and experimenting, or practical purposes by building on it.

Keywords: Flask, Java, JavaScript, health monitoring, long term care, Mongo, Python, smart home, software engineering, webserver.

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Authors: B. Arzhanov, A. Correia, P. Delgado, J. Meireles

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Due to the higher power loss levels in electronic components, the thermal design of PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) of an assembled device becomes one of the most important quality factors in electronics. Nonetheless, some of leading causes of the microelectronic component failures are due to higher temperatures, the leakages or thermal-mechanical stress, which is a concern, is the reliability of microelectronic packages. This article presents an experimental approach to measure the junction temperature of exposed pad packages. The implemented solution is in a prototype phase, using a temperature-sensitive parameter (TSP) to measure temperature directly on the die, validating the numeric results provided by the Mechanical APDL (Ansys Parametric Design Language) under same conditions. The physical device-under-test is composed by a Thermal Test Chip (TTC-1002) and assembly in a QFN cavity, soldered to a test-board according to JEDEC Standards. Monitoring the voltage drop across a forward-biased diode, is an indirectly method but accurate to obtain the junction temperature of QFN component with an applied power range between 0,3W to 1.5W. The temperature distributions on the PCB test-board and QFN cavity surface were monitored by an infra-red thermal camera (Goby-384) controlled and images processed by the Xeneth software. The article provides a set-up to monitorize in real-time the junction temperature of ICs, namely devices with the exposed pad package (i.e. QFN). Presenting the PCB layout parameters that the designer should use to improve thermal performance, and evaluate the impact of voids in solder interface in the device junction temperature.

Keywords: Quad Flat No-Lead packages, exposed pads, junction temperature, thermal management, measurements.

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

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It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, type-I error, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood.

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Authors: Abubakar Uba Ibrahim, Ibrahim Haruna Shanono

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Smart metering and demand response are gaining ground in industrial and residential applications. Smart Appliances have been given concern towards achieving Smart home. The success of Smart grid development relies on the successful implementation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in power sector. Smart Appliances have been the technology under development and many new contributions to its realization have been reported in the last few years. The role of ICT here is to capture data in real time, thereby allowing bi-directional flow of information/data between producing and utilization point; that lead a way for the attainment of Smart appliances where home appliances can communicate between themselves and provide a self-control (switch on and off) using the signal (information) obtained from the grid. This paper depicts the background on ICT for smart appliances paying a particular attention to the current technology and identifying the future ICT trends for load monitoring through which smart appliances can be achieved to facilitate an efficient smart home system which promote demand response program. This paper grouped and reviewed the recent contributions, in order to establish the current state of the art and trends of the technology, so that the reader can be provided with a comprehensive and insightful review of where ICT for smart appliances stands and is heading to. The paper also presents a brief overview of communication types, and then narrowed the discussion to the load monitoring (Non-intrusive Appliances Load Monitoring ‘NALM’). Finally, some future trends and challenges in the further development of the ICT framework are discussed to motivate future contributions that address open problems and explore new possibilities.

Keywords: Communication technology between appliances, demand response, load monitoring, smart appliances and smart grid.

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Authors: Paola Lecca

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Modeling and simulation of biochemical reactions is of great interest in the context of system biology. The central dogma of this re-emerging area states that it is system dynamics and organizing principles of complex biological phenomena that give rise to functioning and function of cells. Cell functions, such as growth, division, differentiation and apoptosis are temporal processes, that can be understood if they are treated as dynamic systems. System biology focuses on an understanding of functional activity from a system-wide perspective and, consequently, it is defined by two hey questions: (i) how do the components within a cell interact, so as to bring about its structure and functioning? (ii) How do cells interact, so as to develop and maintain higher levels of organization and functions? In recent years, wet-lab biologists embraced mathematical modeling and simulation as two essential means toward answering the above questions. The credo of dynamics system theory is that the behavior of a biological system is given by the temporal evolution of its state. Our understanding of the time behavior of a biological system can be measured by the extent to which a simulation mimics the real behavior of that system. Deviations of a simulation indicate either limitations or errors in our knowledge. The aim of this paper is to summarize and review the main conceptual frameworks in which models of biochemical networks can be developed. In particular, we review the stochastic molecular modelling approaches, by reporting the principal conceptualizations suggested by A. A. Markov, P. Langevin, A. Fokker, M. Planck, D. T. Gillespie, N. G. van Kampfen, and recently by D. Wilkinson, O. Wolkenhauer, P. S. Jöberg and by the author.

Keywords: Mathematical structure, algorithmic implementation, biochemical network models.

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Authors: J. Schmidt, O. Kornadt

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The major part of light weight timber constructions consists of insulation. Mineral wool is the most commonly used insulation due to its cost efficiency and easy handling. The fiber orientation and porosity of this insulation material enables flowthrough. The air flow resistance is low. If leakage occurs in the insulated bay section, the convective flow may cause energy losses and infiltration of the exterior wall with moisture and particles. In particular the infiltrated moisture may lead to thermal bridges and growth of health endangering mould and mildew. In order to prevent this problem, different numerical calculation models have been developed. All models developed so far have a potential for completion. The implementation of the flow-through properties of mineral wool insulation may help to improve the existing models. Assuming that the real pressure difference between interior and exterior surface is larger than the prescribed pressure difference in the standard test procedure for mineral wool ISO 9053 / EN 29053, measurements were performed using the measurement setup for research on convective moisture transfer “MSRCMT". These measurements show, that structural inhomogeneities of mineral wool effect the permeability only at higher pressure differences, as applied in MSRCMT. Additional microscopic investigations show, that the location of a leak within the construction has a crucial influence on the air flow-through and the infiltration rate. The results clearly indicate that the empirical values for the acoustic resistance of mineral wool should not be used for the calculation of convective transfer mechanisms.

Keywords: convection, convective transfer, infiltration, mineralwool, permeability, resistance, leakage

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Authors: Ahmed Barakat, Nourhan A. Saad, Mahmoud Hammad

Abstract:

Tracking and monitoring agricultural products, cold chain activities, and transportation in real-time can effectively ensure both the quality and safety of agricultural products, as well as reduce overall logistics costs. Effective supply chain practices are one of the main requirements for enhancing agricultural business in Egypt. Cold chain is among the best practices for the storage and transportation of perishable goods and has potential within the agricultural sector in Egypt. This practice has the scope of reducing the wastage of food and increasing the profitability with a reduction in costs. Even though it has several implementation challenges for the farmers, traders, and people involved in the entire supply chain, it has highlighted better benefits for all and for the export of goods for the economic progression for Egypt. The aim of this paper is to explore cold supply chain practices for the agriculture sector in Egypt, to enhance the export performance of fresh goods. In this context, this study attempts to explore those aspects of the performance of cold supply chain practices that can enhance the functioning of the agriculture sector in Egypt from the perspective of export companies (traders) and farmers. Based on the empirical results obtained by data collection from the farmers and traders, the study argues that there is a significant association between cold supply chain practices and enhancement of the agriculture value chain. The paper thus highlights the contribution of the study with final conclusions and limitations with scope for future research.

Keywords: Agriculture sector, cold chain management, export companies, non-traded goods, supply chain management.

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Authors: Y. Bai, M. Bodlak, V. Frolov, S. Huber, V. Jary, I. Konorov, D. Levit, J. Novy, D. Steffen, O. Subrt, M. Virius

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In general, state-of-the-art Data Acquisition Systems (DAQ) in high energy physics experiments must satisfy high requirements in terms of reliability, efficiency and data rate capability. This paper presents the development and deployment of a debugging tool named DAQ Debugger for the intelligent, FPGA-based Data Acquisition System (iFDAQ) of the COMPASS experiment at CERN. Utilizing a hardware event builder, the iFDAQ is designed to be able to readout data at the average maximum rate of 1.5 GB/s of the experiment. In complex softwares, such as the iFDAQ, having thousands of lines of code, the debugging process is absolutely essential to reveal all software issues. Unfortunately, conventional debugging of the iFDAQ is not possible during the real data taking. The DAQ Debugger is a tool for identifying a problem, isolating the source of the problem, and then either correcting the problem or determining a way to work around it. It provides the layer for an easy integration to any process and has no impact on the process performance. Based on handling of system signals, the DAQ Debugger represents an alternative to conventional debuggers provided by most integrated development environments. Whenever problem occurs, it generates reports containing all necessary information important for a deeper investigation and analysis. The DAQ Debugger was fully incorporated to all processes in the iFDAQ during the run 2016. It helped to reveal remaining software issues and improved significantly the stability of the system in comparison with the previous run. In the paper, we present the DAQ Debugger from several insights and discuss it in a detailed way.

Keywords: DAQ debugger, data acquisition system, FPGA, system signals, Qt framework.

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Authors: Aliakbar Golshani, Seyyed Mehdi Poorhashemi, Mahsa Gharizadeh

Abstract:

The under passing tunnels are strongly influenced by the soils around. There are some complexities in the specification of real soil behavior, owing to the fact that lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties, and additionally, inappropriate soil constitutive models. Such mentioned factors may cause incompatible settlements in numerical analysis with the obtained values in actual construction. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific tunnel constructed by NATM. The tunnel has a depth of 11.4 m, height of 12.2 m, and width of 14.4 m with 2.5 lanes. The numerical modeling was based on a 2D finite element program. The soil material behavior was modeled by hardening soil model. According to the field observations, the numerical estimated settlement at the ground surface was approximately four times more than the measured one, after the entire installation of the initial lining, indicating that some unknown factors affect the values. Consequently, the geotechnical parameters are accurately revised by a numerical back-analysis using laboratory and field test data and based on the obtained monitoring data. The obtained result confirms that typically, the soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated. And additionally, the constitutive models cannot be applied properly for all soil conditions.

Keywords: NATM tunnel, initial lining, field test data, laboratory test data, monitoring data, numerical back-analysis.

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Authors: Kamal K.Bharadwaj, Rekha Kandwal

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An important structuring mechanism for knowledge bases is building clusters based on the content of their knowledge objects. The objects are clustered based on the principle of maximizing the intraclass similarity and minimizing the interclass similarity. Clustering can also facilitate taxonomy formation, that is, the organization of observations into a hierarchy of classes that group similar events together. Hierarchical representation allows us to easily manage the complexity of knowledge, to view the knowledge at different levels of details, and to focus our attention on the interesting aspects only. One of such efficient and easy to understand systems is Hierarchical Production rule (HPRs) system. A HPR, a standard production rule augmented with generality and specificity information, is of the following form Decision If < condition> Generality Specificity . HPRs systems are capable of handling taxonomical structures inherent in the knowledge about the real world. In this paper, a set of related HPRs is called a cluster and is represented by a HPR-tree. This paper discusses an algorithm based on cumulative learning scenario for dynamic structuring of clusters. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge into the set of clusters from the previous episodes and also maintains summary of clusters as Synopsis to be used in the future episodes. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested incremental structuring of clusters would be useful in mining data streams.

Keywords: Cumulative learning, clustering, data mining, hierarchical production rules.

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Authors: Y. V. Kim

Abstract:

This article presents an approach with regards to the Functional Testing of Space System (SS) that could be a space vehicle (spacecraft-S/C) and/or its equipment and components – S/C subsystems. This test should finalize the Space Qualification Tests (SQT) campaign. It could be considered as a generic test and used for a wide class of SS that, from the point of view of System Dynamics and Control Theory, may be described by the ordinary differential equations. The suggested methodology is based on using semi-natural experiment laboratory stand that does not require complicated, precise and expensive technological control-verification equipment. However, it allows for testing totally assembled system during Assembling, Integration and Testing (AIT) activities at the final phase of SQT, involving system hardware (HW) and software (SW). The test physically activates system input (sensors) and output (actuators) and requires recording their outputs in real time. The data are then inserted in a laboratory computer, where it is post-experiment processed by the MATLAB/Simulink Identification Toolbox. It allows for estimating the system dynamics in the form of estimation of its differential equation coefficients through the verification experimental test and comparing them with expected mathematical model, prematurely verified by mathematical simulation during the design process. Mathematical simulation results presented in the article show that this approach could be applicable and helpful in SQT practice. Further semi-natural experiments should specify detail requirements for the test laboratory equipment and test-procedures.

Keywords: system dynamics, space system ground tests, space qualification, system dynamics identification, satellite attitude control, assembling integration and testing

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Authors: Romeo A. Botes, Imelda Smit

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The demands of an ever changing and complex higher education environment, along with the profile of modern learners challenge current approaches to assessment and feedback. More learners enter the education system every year. The younger generation expects immediate feedback. At the same time, feedback should be meaningful. The assessment of practical activities in programming poses a particular problem, since both lecturers and learners in the information and computer science discipline acknowledge that paper-based assessment for programming subjects lacks meaningful real-life testing. At the same time, feedback lacks promptness, consistency, comprehensiveness and individualisation. Most of these aspects may be addressed by modern, technology-assisted assessment. The focus of this paper is the continuous development of an artefact that is used to assist the lecturer in the assessment and feedback of practical programming activities in a senior database programming class. The artefact was developed using three Design Science Research cycles. The first implementation allowed one programming activity submission per assessment intervention. This pilot provided valuable insight into the obstacles regarding the implementation of this type of assessment tool. A second implementation improved the initial version to allow multiple programming activity submissions per assessment. The focus of this version is on providing scaffold feedback to the learner – allowing improvement with each subsequent submission. It also has a built-in capability to provide the lecturer with information regarding the key problem areas of each assessment intervention.

Keywords: Programming, computer-aided assessment, technology-assisted assessment, programming assessment software, design science research, mixed-method.

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Authors: Nastaran Hajiheydari, Mohammad Soltani Delgosha

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Vendor (supplier) selection is a group decision-making (GDM) process, in which, based on some predetermined criteria, the experts’ preferences are provided in order to rank and choose the most desirable suppliers. In the real business environment, our attitudes or our choices would be made in an uncertain and indecisive situation could not be expressed in a crisp framework. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) could handle such situations in the best way. VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. This method, which is used to determine the compromised feasible solution with respect to the conflicting criteria, introduces a multi-criteria ranking index based on the particular measure of 'closeness' to the 'ideal solution'. Until now, there has been a little investigation of VIKOR with IFS, therefore we extended the intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) VIKOR to solve vendor selection problem under IF GDM environment. The present study intends to develop an IF VIKOR method in a GDM situation. Therefore, a model is presented to calculate the criterion weights based on entropy measure. Then, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted geometric (IFWG) operator utilized to obtain the total decision matrix. In the next stage, an approach based on the positive idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (PIIFN) and negative idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (NIIFN) was developed. Finally, the application of the proposed method to solve a vendor selection problem illustrated.

Keywords: Group decision making, intuitionistic fuzzy entropy measure, intuitionistic fuzzy set, vendor selection VIKOR.

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