Search results for: Langevin Dynamic and Mont Carlo Simulation.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5001

Search results for: Langevin Dynamic and Mont Carlo Simulation.

4881 Dynamical Characteristics of Interaction between Water Droplet and Aerosol Particle in Dedusting Technology

Authors: Ding Jue, Li Jiahua, Lei Zhidi, Weng Peifen, Li Xiaowei

Abstract:

With the rapid development of national modern industry, people begin to pay attention to environmental pollution and harm caused by industrial dust. Based on above, a numerical study on the dedusting technology of industrial environment was conducted. The dynamic models of multicomponent particles collision and coagulation, breakage and deposition are developed, and the interaction of water droplet and aerosol particle in 2-Dimension flow field was researched by Eulerian-Lagrangian method and Multi-Monte Carlo method. The effects of the droplet scale, movement speed of droplet and the flow field structure on scavenging efficiency were analyzed. The results show that under the certain condition, 30μm of droplet has the best scavenging efficiency. At the initial speed 1m/s of droplets, droplets and aerosol particles have more time to interact, so it has a better scavenging efficiency for the particle.

Keywords: Water droplet, aerosol particle, collision and coagulation, multi-Monte Carlo method.

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4880 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition Search Strategy for Quantitative Trait Loci in a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

Authors: Susan J. Simmons, Fang Fang, Qijun Fang, Karl Ricanek

Abstract:

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) experiments have yielded important biological and biochemical information necessary for understanding the relationship between genetic markers and quantitative traits. For many years, most QTL algorithms only allowed one observation per genotype. Recently, there has been an increasing demand for QTL algorithms that can accommodate more than one observation per genotypic distribution. The Bayesian hierarchical model is very flexible and can easily incorporate this information into the model. Herein a methodology is presented that uses a Bayesian hierarchical model to capture the complexity of the data. Furthermore, the Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition (MC3) algorithm is used to search and identify important markers. An extensive simulation study illustrates that the method captures the true QTL, even under nonnormal noise and up to 6 QTL.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model, Markov chain MonteCarlo model composition, quantitative trait loci.

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4879 Research on the Predict Method of Random Vibration Cumulative Fatigue Damage Life Based on the Finite Element Analysis

Authors: Wang Chengcheng, Li Chuanri, Xu Fei, Guo Ying

Abstract:

Aiming at most of the aviation products are facing the problem of fatigue fracture in vibration environment, we makes use of the testing result of a bracket, analysis for the structure with ANSYS-Workbench, predict the life of the bracket by different ways, and compared with the testing result. With the research on analysis methods, make an organic combination of simulation analysis and testing, Not only ensure the accuracy of simulation analysis and life predict, but also make a dynamic supervision of product life process, promote the application of finite element simulation analysis in engineering practice.

Keywords: Random vibration, finite element simulation, fatigue, frequency domain.

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4878 An 8-Bit, 100-MSPS Fully Dynamic SAR ADC for Ultra-High Speed Image Sensor

Authors: F. Rarbi, D. Dzahini, W. Uhring

Abstract:

In this paper, a dynamic and power efficient 8-bit and 100-MSPS Successive Approximation Register (SAR) Analog-to-Digital Converter (ADC) is presented. The circuit uses a non-differential capacitive Digital-to-Analog (DAC) architecture segmented by 2. The prototype is produced in a commercial 65-nm 1P7M CMOS technology with 1.2-V supply voltage. The size of the core ADC is 208.6 x 103.6 µm2. The post-layout noise simulation results feature a SNR of 46.9 dB at Nyquist frequency, which means an effective number of bit (ENOB) of 7.5-b. The total power consumption of this SAR ADC is only 1.55 mW at 100-MSPS. It achieves then a figure of merit of 85.6 fJ/step.

Keywords: CMOS analog to digital converter, dynamic comparator, image sensor application, successive approximation register.

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4877 Advanced Numerical and Analytical Methods for Assessing Concrete Sewers and Their Remaining Service Life

Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi

Abstract:

Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.

Keywords: Reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model.

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4876 Solutions for Comfort and Safety on Vibrations Resulting from the Action of the Wind on the Building in the Form of Portico with Four Floors

Authors: G. B. M. Carvalho, V. A. C. Vale, E. T. L. Cöuras Ford

Abstract:

With the aim of increasing the levels of comfort and security structures, the study of dynamic loads on buildings has been one of the focuses in the area of control engineering, civil engineering and architecture. Thus, this work presents a study based on simulation of the dynamics of buildings in the form of portico subjected to wind action, besides presenting an action of passive control, using for this the dynamics of the structure, consequently representing a system appropriated on environmental issues. These control systems are named the dynamic vibration absorbers.

Keywords: Dynamic vibration absorber, structure, comfort, safety, wind behavior, structure.

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4875 Importance of Simulation in Manufacturing

Authors: F. Hosseinpour, H. Hajihosseini

Abstract:

Simulation is a very helpful and valuable work tool in manufacturing. It can be used in industrial field allowing the system`s behavior to be learnt and tested. Simulation provides a low cost, secure and fast analysis tool. It also provides benefits, which can be reached with many different system configurations. Topics to be discussed include: Applications, Modeling, Validating, Software and benefits of simulation. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on research efforts in simulation.

Keywords: Manufacturing, modeling, simulation, training.

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4874 Simulation of Dynamics of a Permanent Magnet Linear Actuator

Authors: Ivan Yatchev, Ewen Ritchie

Abstract:

Comparison of two approaches for the simulation of the dynamic behaviour of a permanent magnet linear actuator is presented. These are full coupled model, where the electromagnetic field, electric circuit and mechanical motion problems are solved simultaneously, and decoupled model, where first a set of static magnetic filed analysis is carried out and then the electric circuit and mechanical motion equations are solved employing bi-cubic spline approximations of the field analysis results. The results show that the proposed decoupled model is of satisfactory accuracy and gives more flexibility when the actuator response is required to be estimated for different external conditions, e.g. external circuit parameters or mechanical loads.

Keywords: Coupled problems, dynamic models, finite elementanalysis, linear actuators, permanent magnets.

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4873 Crude Distillation Process Simulation Using Unisim Design Simulator

Authors: C. Patrascioiu, M. Jamali

Abstract:

The paper deals with the simulation of the crude distillation process using the Unisim Design simulator. The necessity of simulating this process is argued both by considerations related to the design of the crude distillation column, but also by considerations related to the design of advanced control systems. In order to use the Unisim Design simulator to simulate the crude distillation process, the identification of the simulators used in Romania and an analysis of the PRO/II, HYSYS, and Aspen HYSYS simulators were carried out. Analysis of the simulators for the crude distillation process has allowed the authors to elaborate the conclusions of the success of the crude modelling. A first aspect developed by the authors is the implementation of specific problems of petroleum liquid-vapors equilibrium using Unisim Design simulator. The second major element of the article is the development of the methodology and the elaboration of the simulation program for the crude distillation process, using Unisim Design resources. The obtained results validate the proposed methodology and will allow dynamic simulation of the process.  

Keywords: Crude oil, distillation, simulation, Unisim Design, simulators.

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4872 Estimation of the Mean of the Selected Population

Authors: Kalu Ram Meena, Aditi Kar Gangopadhyay, Satrajit Mandal

Abstract:

Two normal populations with different means and same variance are considered, where the variance is known. The population with the smaller sample mean is selected. Various estimators are constructed for the mean of the selected normal population. Finally, they are compared with respect to the bias and MSE risks by the mehod of Monte-Carlo simulation and their performances are analysed with the help of graphs.

Keywords: Estimation after selection, Brewster-Zidek technique.

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4871 Identification of States and Events for the Static and Dynamic Simulation of Single Electron Tunneling Circuits

Authors: Sharief F. Babiker, Abdelkareem Bedri, Rania Naeem

Abstract:

The implementation of single-electron tunneling (SET) simulators based on the master-equation (ME) formalism requires the efficient and accurate identification of an exhaustive list of active states and related tunnel events. Dynamic simulations also require the control of the emerging states and guarantee the safe elimination of decaying states. This paper describes algorithms for use in the stationary and dynamic control of the lists of active states and events. The paper presents results obtained using these algorithms with different SET structures.

Keywords: Active state, Coulomb blockade, Master Equation, Single electron devices

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4870 Approximate Confidence Interval for Effect Size Base on Bootstrap Resampling Method

Authors: S. Phanyaem

Abstract:

This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: Effect size, confidence interval, Bootstrap Method.

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4869 On the Modeling and State Estimation for Dynamic Power System

Authors: A. Thabet, M. Boutayeb, M. N. Abdelkrim

Abstract:

This paper investigates a method for the state estimation of nonlinear systems described by a class of differential-algebraic equation (DAE) models using the extended Kalman filter. The method involves the use of a transformation from a DAE to ordinary differential equation (ODE). A relevant dynamic power system model using decoupled techniques will be proposed. The estimation technique consists of a state estimator based on the EKF technique as well as the local stability analysis. High performances are illustrated through a simulation study applied on IEEE 13 buses test system.

Keywords: Power system, Dynamic decoupled model, Extended Kalman Filter, Convergence analysis, Time computing.

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4868 Electricity Load Modeling: An Application to Italian Market

Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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4867 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting

Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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4866 Dynamic Routing to Multiple Destinations in IP Networks using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm (DRHGA)

Authors: K. Vijayalakshmi, S. Radhakrishnan

Abstract:

In this paper we have proposed a novel dynamic least cost multicast routing protocol using hybrid genetic algorithm for IP networks. Our protocol finds the multicast tree with minimum cost subject to delay, degree, and bandwidth constraints. The proposed protocol has the following features: i. Heuristic local search function has been devised and embedded with normal genetic operation to increase the speed and to get the optimized tree, ii. It is efficient to handle the dynamic situation arises due to either change in the multicast group membership or node / link failure, iii. Two different crossover and mutation probabilities have been used for maintaining the diversity of solution and quick convergence. The simulation results have shown that our proposed protocol generates dynamic multicast tree with lower cost. Results have also shown that the proposed algorithm has better convergence rate, better dynamic request success rate and less execution time than other existing algorithms. Effects of degree and delay constraints have also been analyzed for the multicast tree interns of search success rate.

Keywords: Dynamic Group membership change, Hybrid Genetic Algorithm, Link / node failure, QoS Parameters.

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4865 A Numerical Investigation on the Dynamic Stall of a Wind Turbine Section Using Different Turbulent Models

Authors: S. A. Ahmadi, S. Sharif, R. Jamshidi

Abstract:

In this article, the flow behavior around a NACA 0012 airfoil which is oscillating with different Reynolds numbers and in various amplitudes has been investigated numerically. Numerical simulations have been performed with ANSYS software. First, the 2- D geometry has been studied in different Reynolds numbers and angles of attack with various numerical methods in its static condition. This analysis was to choose the best turbulent model and comparing the grids to have the optimum one for dynamic simulations. Because the analysis was to study the blades of wind turbines, the Reynolds numbers were not arbitrary. They were in the range of 9.71e5 to 22.65e5. The angle of attack was in the range of -41.81° to 41.81°. By choosing the forward wind speed as the independent parameter, the others like Reynolds and the amplitude of the oscillation would be known automatically. The results show that the SST turbulent model is the best choice that leads the least numerical error with respect the experimental ones. Also, a dynamic stall phenomenon is more probable at lower wind speeds in which the lift force is less.

Keywords: Dynamic stall, Numerical simulation, Wind turbine, Turbulent Model

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4864 Static and Dynamic Load on Hip Contact of Hip Prosthesis and Thai Femoral Bones

Authors: K. Chalernpon, P. Aroonjarattham, K. Aroonjarattham

Abstract:

Total hip replacement had been one of the most successful operations in hip arthritis surgery. The purpose of this research had been to develop a dynamic hip contact of Thai femoral bone to analyze the stress distribution on the implant and the strain distribution on the bone model under daily activities and compared with the static load simulation. The results showed the different of maximum von Mises stress 0.14 percent under walking and 0.03 percent under climbing stair condition and the different of equivalent total strain 0.52 percent under walking and 0.05 percent under climbing stair condition. The muscular forces should be evaluated with dynamic condition to reduce the maximum von Mises stress and equivalent total strain.

Keywords: Dynamic loading, Static Load, Hip prosthesis, Thai femur, Femoral bone, Finite Element Analysis.

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4863 Assessment of Drug Delivery Systems from Molecular Dynamic Perspective

Authors: M. Rahimnejad, B. Vahidi, B. Ebrahimi Hoseinzadeh, F. Yazdian, P. Motamed Fath, R. Jamjah

Abstract:

In this study, we developed and simulated nano-drug delivery systems efficacy in compare to free drug prescription. Computational models can be utilized to accelerate experimental steps and control the experiments high cost. Molecular dynamics simulation (MDS), in particular NAMD was utilized to better understand the anti-cancer drug interaction with cell membrane model. Paclitaxel (PTX) and dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC) were selected for the drug molecule and as a natural phospholipid nanocarrier, respectively. This work focused on two important interaction parameters between molecules in terms of center of mass (COM) and van der Waals interaction energy. Furthermore, we compared the simulation results of the PTX interaction with the cell membrane and the interaction of DPPC as a nanocarrier loaded by the drug with the cell membrane. The molecular dynamic analysis resulted in low energy between the nanocarrier and the cell membrane as well as significant decrease of COM amount in the nanocarrier and the cell membrane system during the interaction. Thus, the drug vehicle showed notably better interaction with the cell membrane in compared to free drug interaction with the cell membrane.

Keywords: Anti-cancer drug, center of Mass, interaction energy, molecular dynamics simulation, nanocarrier.

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4862 Analysis of Dynamic Loads Induced by Spectator Movements in Stadium

Authors: Gee-Cheol Kim, Sang-Hoon Lee, Joo-Won Kang

Abstract:

In the stadium structure, the significant dynamic responses such as resonance or similar behavior can be occurred by spectator rhythmical activities. Thus, accurate analysis and precise investigation of stadium structure that is subjected to dynamic loads are required for practical design and serviceability check of stadium structures. Moreover, it is desirable to measure and analyze the dynamic loads of spectator activities because these dynamic loads can not be easily expressed in numerical formula. In this study, various dynamic loads induced by spectator movements are measured and analyzed. These dynamic loads induced by spectators movement of stadium structure can be classified into the impact load and the periodic load. These dynamic loads can be expressed as Fourier harmonic load. And, these dynamic loads could be applied for the accurate vibration analysis of a stadium structure.

Keywords: stadium structure, spectator rhythmical activities, vibration analysis.

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4861 Enhanced Performance of Fading Dispersive Channel Using Dynamic Frequency Hopping(DFH)

Authors: Walid M. Saad

Abstract:

techniques are examined to overcome the performance degradation caused by the channel dispersion using slow frequency hopping (SFH) with dynamic frequency hopping (DFH) pattern adaptation. In DFH systems, the frequency slots are selected by continuous quality monitoring of all frequencies available in a system and modification of hopping patterns for each individual link based on replacing slots which its signal to interference ratio (SIR) measurement is below a required threshold. Simulation results will show the improvements in BER obtained by DFH in comparison with matched frequency hopping (MFH), random frequency hopping (RFH) and multi-carrier code division multiple access (MC-CDMA) in multipath slowly fading dispersive channels using a generalized bandpass two-path transfer function model, and will show the improvement obtained according to the threshold selection.

Keywords: code division multiple access (CDMA), dynamic channel allocation (DCA), dynamic channel assignment, frequency hopping, matched frequency hopping (MFH).

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4860 Genetic Algorithm Based Design of Fuzzy Logic Power System Stabilizers in Multimachine Power System

Authors: Manisha Dubey, Aalok Dubey

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for the design of fuzzy logic power system stabilizers using genetic algorithms. In the proposed fuzzy expert system, speed deviation and its derivative have been selected as fuzzy inputs. In this approach the parameters of the fuzzy logic controllers have been tuned using genetic algorithm. Incorporation of GA in the design of fuzzy logic power system stabilizer will add an intelligent dimension to the stabilizer and significantly reduces computational time in the design process. It is shown in this paper that the system dynamic performance can be improved significantly by incorporating a genetic-based searching mechanism. To demonstrate the robustness of the genetic based fuzzy logic power system stabilizer (GFLPSS), simulation studies on multimachine system subjected to small perturbation and three-phase fault have been carried out. Simulation results show the superiority and robustness of GA based power system stabilizer as compare to conventionally tuned controller to enhance system dynamic performance over a wide range of operating conditions.

Keywords: Dynamic stability, Fuzzy logic power systemstabilizer, Genetic Algorithms, Genetic based power systemstabilizer

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4859 Dynamic Variational Multiscale LES of Bluff Body Flows on Unstructured Grids

Authors: Carine Moussaed, Stephen Wornom, Bruno Koobus, Maria Vittoria Salvetti, Alain Dervieux,

Abstract:

The effects of dynamic subgrid scale (SGS) models are investigated in variational multiscale (VMS) LES simulations of bluff body flows. The spatial discretization is based on a mixed finite element/finite volume formulation on unstructured grids. In the VMS approach used in this work, the separation between the largest and the smallest resolved scales is obtained through a variational projection operator and a finite volume cell agglomeration. The dynamic version of Smagorinsky and WALE SGS models are used to account for the effects of the unresolved scales. In the VMS approach, these effects are only modeled in the smallest resolved scales. The dynamic VMS-LES approach is applied to the simulation of the flow around a circular cylinder at Reynolds numbers 3900 and 20000 and to the flow around a square cylinder at Reynolds numbers 22000 and 175000. It is observed as in previous studies that the dynamic SGS procedure has a smaller impact on the results within the VMS approach than in LES. But improvements are demonstrated for important feature like recirculating part of the flow. The global prediction is improved for a small computational extra cost.

Keywords: variational multiscale LES, dynamic SGS model, unstructured grids, circular cylinder, square cylinder.

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4858 A Dynamic Model of Air Pollution, Health,and Population Growth Using System Dynamics: A Study on Tehran-Iran (With Computer Simulation by the Software Vensim)

Authors: Keyvan Shahgholian, Hamid Hajihosseini

Abstract:

The significance of environmental protection is wellknown in today's world. The execution of any program depends on sufficient knowledge and required familiarity with environment and its pollutants. Taking advantage of a systematic method, as a new science, in environmental planning can solve many problems. In this article, air pollution in Tehran and its relationship with health and population growth have been analyzed using dynamic systems. Firstly, by using casual loops, the relationship between the parameters effective on air pollution in Tehran were taken into consideration, then these casual loops were turned into flow diagrams [6], and finally, they were simulated using the software Vensim [16]in order to conclude what the effect of each parameter will be on air pollution in Tehran in the next 10 years, how changing of one or more parameters influences other parameters, and which parameter among all other parameters requires to be controlled more.

Keywords: Air pollutions, Simulation, System Dynamics, Tehran, Vensim.

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4857 Movies and Dynamic Mathematical Objects on Trigonometry for Mobile Phones

Authors: Kazuhisa Takagi

Abstract:

This paper is about movies and dynamic objects for mobile phones. Dynamic objects are the software programmed by JavaScript. They consist of geometric figures and work on HTML5-compliant browsers. Mobile phones are very popular among teenagers. They like watching movies and playing games on them. So, mathematics movies and dynamic objects would enhance teaching and learning processes. In the movies, manga characters speak with artificially synchronized voices. They teach trigonometry together with dynamic mathematical objects. Many movies are created. They are Windows Media files or MP4 movies. These movies and dynamic objects are not only used in the classroom but also distributed to students. By watching movies, students can study trigonometry before or after class.

Keywords: Dynamic mathematical object, JavaScript, Google drive, transfer jet.

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4856 The Nematode Fauna Dynamics Peculiarities of Highlands Different Ecosystems (Eastern Georgia)

Authors: E. Tskitishvili, I. Eliava, T. Tskitishvili, N. Bagathuria, L. Zghenti, M. Gigolashvili

Abstract:

There was studied dynamic of the number of nematodes fauna of various ecosystems of Gombori Mountain Ridge that belongs to peak of fauna dynamic. The nature of dynamic is in general similar in all six biotypes and the difference is evident only in total number of nematodes.

Keywords: Nematoda, dynamic, highland, ecosystem

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4855 Production Throughput Modeling under Five Uncertain Variables Using Bayesian Inference

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

Abstract:

Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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4854 Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a STATCOM/SMES Compensator in Power Systems

Authors: Reza Sedaghati, Mojtaba Hakimzadeh, Abdolmohamad Davodi, Navid Javidtash

Abstract:

The advent of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) is giving rise to a new family of power electronic equipment emerging for controlling and optimizing the performance of power system, e.g. STATCOM. Static synchronous Compensator (STATCOM) is a commonly used FACTS device and has been successfully applied in power systems. In this sense, superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) in integration with a static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) is capable of supplying power systems with both active and reactive powers simultaneously and very rapidly, and thus is able to enhance the security dramatically. In this paper the structure and characteristics of the STATCOM/SMES is proposed. In addition, using a proper control scheme, STATCOM/ SMES is tested on an IEEE 3-bus system and more effective performance of the presented STATCOM/SMES compensator is evaluated with alone STATCOM through the dynamic simulation by using PSCAD/EMTDC software.

Keywords: STATCOM/SMES, Oscillation Damping, Control, Power System.

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4853 Informal Inferential Reasoning Using a Modelling Approach within a Computer-Based Simulation

Authors: Theodosia Prodromou

Abstract:

The article investigates how 14- to 15- year-olds build informal conceptions of inferential statistics as they engage in a modelling process and build their own computer simulations with dynamic statistical software. This study proposes four primary phases of informal inferential reasoning for the students in the statistical modeling and simulation process. Findings show shifts in the conceptual structures across the four phases and point to the potential of all of these phases for fostering the development of students- robust knowledge of the logic of inference when using computer based simulations to model and investigate statistical questions.

Keywords: Inferential reasoning, learning, modelling, statistical inference, simulation.

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4852 Agent-Based Simulation and Analysis of Network-Centric Air Defense Missile Systems

Authors: Su-Yan Tang, Wei Zhang, Shan Mei, Yi-Fan Zhu

Abstract:

Network-Centric Air Defense Missile Systems (NCADMS) represents the superior development of the air defense missile systems and has been regarded as one of the major research issues in military domain at present. Due to lack of knowledge and experience on NCADMS, modeling and simulation becomes an effective approach to perform operational analysis, compared with those equation based ones. However, the complex dynamic interactions among entities and flexible architectures of NCADMS put forward new requirements and challenges to the simulation framework and models. ABS (Agent-Based Simulations) explicitly addresses modeling behaviors of heterogeneous individuals. Agents have capability to sense and understand things, make decisions, and act on the environment. They can also cooperate with others dynamically to perform the tasks assigned to them. ABS proves an effective approach to explore the new operational characteristics emerging in NCADMS. In this paper, based on the analysis of network-centric architecture and new cooperative engagement strategies for NCADMS, an agent-based simulation framework by expanding the simulation framework in the so-called System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) was designed. The simulation framework specifies components, relationships and interactions between them, the structure and behavior rules of an agent in NCADMS. Based on scenario simulations, information and decision superiority and operational advantages in NCADMS were analyzed; meanwhile some suggestions were provided for its future development.

Keywords: air defense missile systems, network-centric, agent-based simulation, simulation framework, information superiority, decision superiority, operational advantages

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