Search results for: Forecasting techniques

Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida

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In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi

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Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Decision tree modeling, Forecasting, Humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Arun Kumar, Yousef L. A. Latif, Fugen Daver

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Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability distributions. The estimates of the parameters are used to calculate natural disaster forecasts. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Humanitarian logistics, relief agencies, probability distribution.

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Authors: Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Tim Borcherding, Peter Nyhuis, Hannover

Abstract:

Planning capacities when regenerating complex investment goods involves particular challenges in that the planning is subject to a large degree of uncertainty regarding load information. Using information fusion – by applying Bayesian Networks – a method is being developed for forecasting the anticipated expenditures (human labor, tool and machinery utilization, time etc.) for regenerating a good. The generated forecasts then later serve as a tool for planning capacities and ensure a greater stability in the planning processes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, capacity planning, complex investment goods, damages library, forecasting, information fusion, regeneration.

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Authors: N. Rezaee, M Nayeripour, A. Roosta, T. Niknam

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With the prevalence of computer and development of information technology, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have long used for a variety of applications in electrical engineering. GIS are designed to support the analysis, management, manipulation and mapping of spatial data. This paper presents several usages of GIS in power utilities such as automated route selection for the construction of new power lines which uses a dynamic programming model for route optimization, load forecasting and optimizing planning of substation-s location and capacity with comprehensive algorithm which involves an accurate small-area electric load forecasting procedure and simulates the different cost functions of substations.

Keywords: Geographic information systems (GIS), optimallocation and capacity, power distribution planning, route selection, spatial load forecasting.

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Authors: Khalid Ali, Manar Jammal

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In order to meet the stringent latency and reliability requirements of the upcoming 5G networks, Open Radio Access Networks (O-RAN) have been proposed. The virtualization of O-RAN has allowed it to be treated as a Network Function Virtualization (NFV) architecture, while its components are considered Virtualized Network Functions (VNFs). Hence, intelligent Machine Learning (ML) based solutions can be utilized to apply different resource management and allocation techniques on O-RAN. However, intelligently allocating resources for O-RAN VNFs can prove challenging due to the dynamicity of traffic in mobile networks. Network providers need to dynamically scale the allocated resources in response to the incoming traffic. Elastically allocating resources can provide a higher level of flexibility in the network in addition to reducing the OPerational EXpenditure (OPEX) and increasing the resources utilization. Most of the existing elastic solutions are reactive in nature, despite the fact that proactive approaches are more agile since they scale instances ahead of time by predicting the incoming traffic. In this work, we propose and evaluate traffic forecasting models based on the ML algorithm. The algorithms aim at predicting future O-RAN traffic by using previous traffic data. Detailed analysis of the traffic data was carried out to validate the quality and applicability of the traffic dataset. Hence, two ML models were proposed and evaluated based on their prediction capabilities.

Keywords: O-RAN, traffic forecasting, NFV, ARIMA, LSTM, elasticity.

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Authors: S. Kotsiantis, E. Koumanakos, D. Tzelepis, V. Tampakas

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This paper explores the effectiveness of machine learning techniques in detecting firms that issue fraudulent financial statements (FFS) and deals with the identification of factors associated to FFS. To this end, a number of experiments have been conducted using representative learning algorithms, which were trained using a data set of 164 fraud and non-fraud Greek firms in the recent period 2001-2002. The decision of which particular method to choose is a complicated problem. A good alternative to choosing only one method is to create a hybrid forecasting system incorporating a number of possible solution methods as components (an ensemble of classifiers). For this purpose, we have implemented a hybrid decision support system that combines the representative algorithms using a stacking variant methodology and achieves better performance than any examined simple and ensemble method. To sum up, this study indicates that the investigation of financial information can be used in the identification of FFS and underline the importance of financial ratios.

Keywords: Machine learning, stacking, classifier.

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Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha

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A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.

Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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Authors: Eman M. Wahba, Noha M. Galal, Khaled S. El-Kilany

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Spare parts inventory management is one of the major areas of inventory research. Analysis of recent literature showed that an approach integrating spare parts classification, demand forecasting, and stock control policies is essential; however, adapting this integrated approach is limited. This work presents an integrated framework for spare part inventory management and an Excel based application developed for the implementation of the proposed framework. A multi-criteria analysis has been used for spare classification. Forecasting of spare parts- intermittent demand has been incorporated into the application using three different forecasting models; namely, normal distribution, exponential smoothing, and Croston method. The application is also capable of running with different inventory control policies. To illustrate the performance of the proposed framework and the developed application; the framework is applied to different items at a service organization. The results achieved are presented and possible areas for future work are highlighted.

Keywords: Demand forecasting, intermittent demand, inventory management, integrated approach, spare parts, spare part classification

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Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

Abstract:

Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: AI, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10.

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Authors: G. Büyüközkan , O. Feyzioglu, Z. Vardaloglu

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Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) coordinates the various supply chain management activities including production and purchase planning, demand forecasting and inventory replenishment between supply chain trading partners. This study proposes a systematic way of analyzing CPFR supporting factors using fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach. FCMs have proven particularly useful for solving problems in which a number of decision variables and uncontrollable variables are causally interrelated. Hence the FCMs of CPFR are created to show the relationships between the factors that influence on effective implementation of CPFR in the supply chain.

Keywords: Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment, fuzzy cognitive map, information sharing, decision synchronization, incentive alignment.

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Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

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Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: Time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure machine learning.

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Authors: Daekook Kang, Wooseok Jang, Hyeonjeong Lee, Hyun Joung No

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Technology changes have been acknowledged as a critical factor in determining competitiveness of organization. Under such environment, the right anticipation of technology change has been of huge importance in strategic planning. To monitor technology change, technology forecasting (TF) is frequently utilized. In academic perspective, TF has received great attention for a long time. However, few researches have been conducted to provide overview of the TF literature. Even though some studies deals with review of TF research, they generally focused on type and characteristics of various TF, so hardly provides information about patterns of TF research and which TF method is used in certain technology industry. Accordingly, this study profile developments in and patterns of scholarly research in TF over time. Also, this study investigates which technology industries have used certain TF method and identifies their relationships. This study will help in understanding TF research trend and their application area.

Keywords: Technology forecasting, technology industry, TF trend, technology trajectory.

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Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

Abstract:

Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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Authors: Karin Kandananond

Abstract:

The nature of consumer products causes the difficulty in forecasting the future demands and the accuracy of the forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of the supply chain system. In this study, two data mining methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were utilized to predict the demand of consumer products. The training data used was the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. The results indicated that SVM had a better forecast quality (in term of MAPE) than ANN in every category of products. Moreover, another important finding was the margin difference of MAPE from these two methods was significantly high when the data was highly correlated.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bullwhip effect, Consumer products, Demand forecasting, Supply chain, Support vector machine (SVM).

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Authors: S. Kotsiantis, A. Kostoulas, S. Lykoudis, A. Argiriou, K. Menagias

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Estimates of temperature values at a specific time of day, from daytime and daily profiles, are needed for a number of environmental, ecological, agricultural and technical applications, ranging from natural hazards assessments, crop growth forecasting to design of solar energy systems. The scope of this research is to investigate the efficiency of data mining techniques in estimating minimum, maximum and mean temperature values. For this reason, a number of experiments have been conducted with well-known regression algorithms using temperature data from the city of Patras in Greece. The performance of these algorithms has been evaluated using standard statistical indicators, such as Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, etc.

Keywords: regression algorithms, supervised machine learning.

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Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

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This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: Intentional bias, Management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: Forecasting problem, interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-plus-SARMA methods.

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Authors: C. Yaiprasert, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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To develop a process of extracting pixel values over the using of satellite remote sensing image data in Thailand. It is a very important and effective method of forecasting rainfall. This paper presents an approach for forecasting a possible rainfall area based on pixel values from remote sensing satellite images. First, a method uses an automatic extraction process of the pixel value data from the satellite image sequence. Then, a data process is designed to enable the inference of correlations between pixel value and possible rainfall occurrences. The result, when we have a high averaged pixel value of daily water vapor data, we will also have a high amount of daily rainfall. This suggests that the amount of averaged pixel values can be used as an indicator of raining events. There are some positive associations between pixel values of daily water vapor images and the amount of daily rainfall at each rain-gauge station throughout Thailand. The proposed approach was proven to be a helpful manual for rainfall forecasting from meteorologists by which using automated analyzing and interpreting process of meteorological remote sensing data.

Keywords: Pixel values, satellite image, water vapor, rainfall, image processing.

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi

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Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for the economic and secure operation of power systems. In this paper, Continuous Genetic Algorithm (CGA) is employed to evolve the optimum large neural networks structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. This study describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. We find good performance for the large neural networks. The proposed methodology gives lower percent errors all the time. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.

Keywords: Feed-forward Large Neural Network, Short-TermLoad Forecasting, Continuous Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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Authors: R. Suzana, T. Wardah, A.B. Sahol Hamid

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The use of radar in Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) for radar-rainfall measurement is significantly beneficial. Radar has advantages in terms of high spatial and temporal condition in rainfall measurement and also forecasting. In Malaysia, radar application in QPE is still new and needs to be explored. This paper focuses on the Z/R derivation works of radarrainfall estimation based on rainfall classification. The works developed new Z/R relationships for Klang River Basin in Selangor area for three different general classes of rain events, namely low (<10mm/hr), moderate (>10mm/hr, <30mm/hr) and heavy (>30mm/hr) and also on more specific rain types during monsoon seasons. Looking at the high potential of Doppler radar in QPE, the newly formulated Z/R equations will be useful in improving the measurement of rainfall for any hydrological application, especially for flood forecasting.

Keywords: Radar, Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, Z/R development, flood forecasting

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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Authors: F. Rahnamay Roodposhti, M. Falah Shams, H. Kordlouie

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The aim of the article is extending and developing econometrics and network structure based methods which are able to distinguish price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. The principal goal of the present study is to offer model for approximating price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. In order to do so by applying separation method a sample consisting of 397 companies accepted at Tehran stock exchange were selected and information related to their price and volume of trades during years 2001 until 2009 were collected and then through performing runs test, skewness test and duration correlative test the selected companies were divided into 2 sets of manipulated and non manipulated companies. In the next stage by investigating cumulative return process and volume of trades in manipulated companies, the date of starting price manipulation was specified and in this way the logit model, artificial neural network, multiple discriminant analysis and by using information related to size of company, clarity of information, ratio of P/E and liquidity of stock one year prior price manipulation; a model for forecasting price manipulation of stocks of companies present in Tehran stock exchange were designed. At the end the power of forecasting models were studied by using data of test set. Whereas the power of forecasting logit model for test set was 92.1%, for artificial neural network was 94.1% and multi audit analysis model was 90.2%; therefore all of the 3 aforesaid models has high power to forecast price manipulation and there is no considerable difference among forecasting power of these 3 models.

Keywords: Price Manipulation, Liquidity, Size of Company, Floating Stock, Information Clarity

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Authors: Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, C. Ardil

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Financial forecasting is an example of signal processing problems. A number of ways to train/learn the network are available. We have used Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for error back-propagation for weight adjustment. Pre-processing of data has reduced much of the variation at large scale to small scale, reducing the variation of training data.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, jacobian matrix.Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, quadratic error surfaces,

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