Search results for: process model

Authors: Raid A. Al-Aomar

Abstract:

This paper presents an application of 5S lean technology to a production facility. Due to increased demand, high product variety, and a push production system, the plant has suffered from excessive wastes, unorganized workstations, and unhealthy work environment. This has translated into increased production cost, frequent delays, and low workers morale. Under such conditions, it has become difficult, if not impossible, to implement effective continuous improvement studies. Hence, the lean project is aimed at diagnosing the production process, streamlining the workflow, removing/reducing process waste, cleaning the production environment, improving plant layout, and organizing workstations. 5S lean technology is utilized for achieving project objectives. The work was a combination of both culture changes and tangible/physical changes on the shop floor. The project has drastically changed the plant and developed the infrastructure for a successful implementation of continuous improvement as well as other best practices and quality initiatives.

Keywords: 5S Technique, Continuous Improvement, Kaizen, Lean Technology, Work Methods, Work Standards

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Authors: A.H. Sajedipoor, N. Hedayat , M. Mashal, R. Nazarzadeh

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Sedimentation formation is a complex hydraulic phenomenon that has emerged as a major operational and maintenance consideration in modern hydraulic engineering in general and river engineering in particular. Sediments accumulation along the river course and their eventual storage in a form of islands affect water intake in the canal systems that are fed by the storage reservoirs. Without proper management, sediment transport can lead to major operational challenges in water distribution system of arid regions like the Dez and Hamidieh command areas. The paper aims to investigate sedimentation in the Western Canal of Dez Diversion Weir using the SHARC model and compare the results with the two intake structures of the Hamidieh dam in Iran using SSIIM model. The objective was to identify the factors which influence the process, check reliability of outcome and provide ways in which to mitigate the implications on operation and maintenance of the structures. Results estimated sand and silt bed loads concentrations to be 193 ppm and 827ppm respectively. This followed ,ore or less similar pattern in Hamidieh where the sediment formation impeded water intake in the canal system. Given the available data on average annual bed loads and average suspended sediment loads of 165ppm and 837ppm in the Dez, there was a significant statistical difference (16%) between the sand grains, whereas no significant difference (1.2%) was find in the silt grain sizes. One explanation for such finding being that along the 6 Km river course there was considerable meandering effects which explains recent shift in the hydraulic behavior along the stream course under investigation. The sand concentration in downstream relative to present state of the canal showed a steep descending curve. Sediment trapping on the other hand indicated a steep ascending curve. These occurred because the diversion weir was not considered in the simulation model. The comparative study showed very close similarities in the results which explains the fact that both software can be used as accurate and reliable analytical tools for simulation of the sedimentation in hydraulic engineering.

Keywords: SHARC, SSIIM, sedimentation, Dez diversion weir, Hamidieh dam, Intake structures

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Authors: Wei Zha, Jingzeng Zhang, Chen Zhao, Ran Cai, Xueyuan Nie

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Cathodic plasma electrolysis (CPE) is used to create surface textures on cast iron samples for improving the tribological properties. Micro craters with confined size distribution were successfully formed by CPE process. These craters can generate extra hydrodynamic pressure that separates two sliding surfaces, increase the oil film thickness and accelerate the transition from boundary to mixed lubrication. It was found that the optimal crater size was 1.7 μm, at which the maximum lubrication efficiency was achieved. The Taguchi method was used to optimize the process parameters (voltage and roughness) for CPE surface texturing. The orthogonal array and the signal-to-noise ratio were employed to study the effect of each process parameter on the coefficient of friction. The results showed that with higher voltage and lower roughness, the lower friction coefficient can be obtained, and thus the lubrication can be more efficiently used for friction reduction.

Keywords: Cathodic plasma electrolysis, friction, lubrication, plasma surface texturing.

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Authors: Mircea Ivanescu, Nirvana Popescu, Decebal Popescu, Dorin Popescu

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This paper addresses the control problem of a class of hyper-redundant arms. In order to avoid discrepancy between the mathematical model and the actual dynamics, the dynamic model with uncertain parameters of this class of manipulators is inferred. A procedure to design a feedback controller which stabilizes the uncertain system has been proposed. A PD boundary control algorithm is used in order to control the desired position of the manipulator. This controller is easy to implement from the point of view of measuring techniques and actuation. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the presented methods. In order to verify the suitability of the control algorithm, a platform with a 3D flexible manipulator has been employed for testing. Experimental tests on this platform illustrate the applications of the techniques developed in the paper.

Keywords: Distributed model, flexible manipulator, observer, robot control.

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Authors: N. Ipiña, R. Basagoiti, O. Jimenez, I. Arriaran

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Higher education students are increasingly enrolling in online courses, they are, at the same time, generating data about their learning process in the courses. Data collected in those technology enhanced learning spaces can be used to identify patterns and therefore, offer recommendations/personalized courses to future online students. Moreover, recommendations are considered key aspects for personalization in online learning. Taking into account the above mentioned context, the aim of this paper is to explore the perception of higher education students and teachers towards receiving recommendations in online courses. The study was carried out with 322 students and 10 teachers from two different faculties (Engineering and Education) from Mondragon University. Online questionnaires and face to face interviews were used to gather data from the participants. Results from the questionnaires show that most of the students would like to receive recommendations in their online courses as a guide in their learning process. Findings from the interviews also show that teachers see recommendations useful for their students’ learning process. However, teachers believe that specific pedagogical training is required. Conclusions can also be drawn as regards the importance of personalization in technology enhanced learning. These findings have significant implications for those who train online teachers due to the fact that pedagogy should be the driven force and further training on the topic could be required. Therefore, further research is needed to better understand the impact of recommendations on online students’ learning process and draw some conclusion on pedagogical concerns.

Keywords: Higher education, perceptions, recommendations.

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Authors: S. Al-Asheh, K. Al-Emadi

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In recent years, there have been attempts to store natural gas in adsorptive form. This is called adsorptive natural gas, or ANG. The problem with this technology is the low sorption capacity. The purpose is to achieve compressed natural gas (CNG) capacity of 230 V/V. Further research is required to achieve such target. Several research studies have been performed with this target; through either the modification or development of new sorbents or the optimization of the operation sorption process itself. In this work, storage of methane on molecular sieves 5A and 13X was studied on dry basis, and on wet basis to certain extent. The temperature and the pressure dynamics were investigated. The results indicated that regardless of the charge pressure, the time for the peak temperature during the methane charge process is always the same. This can be used as a characteristic of the adsorbent. The total achieved deliveries using molecular sieves were much lower than that of activated carbons; 53.0 V/V for the case of 13X molecular sieves and 43 V/V for the case of 5A molecular sieves, both at 2oC and 4 MPa (580 psi). Investigation of charge pressure dynamic using wet molecular sieves at 2oC and a mass ratio of 0.5, revealed slowness of the process and unexpected behavior.

Keywords: Methane, Molecular sieves, Adsorption, Delivery, Storage.

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety critical incident to raise awareness of biases in systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the Methodology used to model and analyse the safety-critical incident. The SIRI Methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique. The benefits of the SIRI Methodology are threefold: first is that it incorporates “Heuristics and Biases” approach, in the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling technique. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organisational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signalling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner’s and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 Systems Engineering standard, and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and Artificial Intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: Accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach.

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Authors: Rafal Maciag

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Due to the development of the current civilization, one must create suitable models of its pervasive massive phenomena. Such a phenomenon is the digital transformation, which has a substantial number of disciplined, methodical interpretations forming the diversified reflection. This reflection could be understood pragmatically as the current temporal, a local differential state of knowledge. The model of the discursive space is proposed as a model for the analysis and description of this knowledge. Discursive space is understood as an autonomous multidimensional space where separate discourses traverse specific trajectories of what can be presented in multidimensional parallel coordinate system. Discursive space built on the world of facts preserves the complex character of that world. Digital transformation as a discursive space has a relativistic character that means that at the same time, it is created by the dynamic discourses and these discourses are molded by the shape of this space.

Keywords: Knowledge, digital transformation, discourse, discursive space, complexity.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Yakin Hajlaoui, Richard Labib, Jean-Franc¸ois Plante, Michel Gamache

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This study presents the Multi-Layer Inverse Distance Weighting Model (ML-IDW), inspired by the mathematical formulation of both multi-layer neural networks (ML-NNs) and Inverse Distance Weighting model (IDW). ML-IDW leverages ML-NNs’ processing capabilities, characterized by compositions of learnable non-linear functions applied to input features, and incorporates IDW’s ability to learn anisotropic spatial dependencies, presenting a promising solution for nonlinear spatial interpolation and learning from complex spatial data. We employ gradient descent and backpropagation to train ML-IDW. The performance of the proposed model is compared against conventional spatial interpolation models such as Kriging and standard IDW on regression and classification tasks using simulated spatial datasets of varying complexity. Our results highlight the efficacy of ML-IDW, particularly in handling complex spatial dataset, exhibiting lower mean square error in regression and higher F1 score in classification.

Keywords: Deep Learning, Multi-Layer Neural Networks, Gradient Descent, Spatial Interpolation, Inverse Distance Weighting.

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Authors: Almudena Aguinaco, Olga Gimeno, Fernando J. Beltrán, Juan José P. Sagasti

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A sequential treatment of ozonation followed by a Fenton or photo-Fenton process, using black light lamps (365 nm) in this latter case, has been applied to remove a mixture of pharmaceutical compounds and the generated by-products both in ultrapure and secondary treated wastewater. The scientifictechnological innovation of this study stems from the in situ generation of hydrogen peroxide from the direct ozonation of pharmaceuticals, and can later be used in the application of Fenton and photo-Fenton processes. The compounds selected as models were sulfamethoxazol and acetaminophen. It should be remarked that the use of a second process is necessary as a result of the low mineralization yield reached by the exclusive application of ozone. Therefore, the influence of the water matrix has been studied in terms of hydrogen peroxide concentration, individual compound concentration and total organic carbon removed. Moreover, the concentration of different iron species in solution has been measured.

Keywords: Fenton, photo-Fenton, ozone, pharmaceutical compounds, hydrogen peroxide, water treatment

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Authors: Ruwaida Abdul Rasid, Kevin J. Hughes, Peter J. Heggs, Mohamed Pourkashanian

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Heightened concerns over the amount of carbon emitted from coal-related processes are generating shifts to the application of biomass. In co-gasification, where coal is gasified along with biomass, the biomass may be fed together with coal (cofeeding) or an independent biomass gasifier needs to be integrated with the coal gasifier. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the biomass introduction methods in coal co-gasification. This includes the evaluation of biomass concentration input (B0 to B100) and its gasification performance. A process model is developed and simulated in Aspen HYSYS, where both coal and biomass are modelled according to its ultimate analysis. It was found that the syngas produced increased with increasing biomass content for both co-feeding and independent schemes. However, the heating values and heat duties decreases with biomass concentration as more CO2 are produced from complete combustion.

Keywords: Aspen HYSYS, biomass, coal, co-gasification modelling and simulation.

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Authors: Christopher Deekia Nwimae, Nigel Simms, Liyun Lao

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Erosion in a pipe bends caused by particles is a major concern in the oil and gas fields and might cause breakdown to production equipment. This work investigates the effect of sand particle transport in an elbow using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. Two-way coupled Euler-Lagrange and discrete phase model is employed to calculate the air/solid particle flow in the elbow. Generic erosion model in Ansys fluent and three particle rebound models are used to predict the erosion rate on the 90° elbows. The model result is compared with experimental data from the open literature validating the CFD-based predictions which reveals that due to the sand particles impinging on the wall of the elbow at high velocity, a point on the pipe elbow were observed to have started turning red due to velocity increase and the maximum erosion locations occur at 48°.

Keywords: Erosion, prediction, elbow, computational fluid dynamics, CFD.

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Authors: Soe Sandar Aung, Han Phyo Wai, Nyein Nyein Soe

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The induction hardening machines are utilized in the industries which modify machine parts and tools needed to achieve high ware resistance. This paper describes the model of induction heating process design of inverter circuit and the results of induction surface hardening of heating coil. In the design of heating coil, the shape and the turn numbers of the coil are very important design factors because they decide the overall operating performance of induction heater including resonant frequency, Q factor, efficiency and power factor. The performance will be tested by experiments in some cases high frequency induction hardening machine.

Keywords: Induction Heating, Resonant Circuit, InverterCircuit, Coil Design, Induction Hardening Machine.

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Authors: P. G. Siddheshwar, B. N. Veena

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Rayleigh-B´enard convection of a nanoliquid in shallow, square and tall enclosures is studied using the Khanafer-Vafai-Lightstone single-phase model. The thermophysical properties of water, copper, copper-oxide, alumina, silver and titania at 3000 K under stagnant conditions that are collected from literature are used in calculating thermophysical properties of water-based nanoliquids. Phenomenological laws and mixture theory are used for calculating thermophysical properties. Free-free, rigid-rigid and rigid-free boundary conditions are considered in the study. Intractable Lorenz model for each boundary combination is derived and then reduced to the tractable Ginzburg-Landau model. The amplitude thus obtained is used to quantify the heat transport in terms of Nusselt number. Addition of nanoparticles is shown not to alter the influence of the nature of boundaries on the onset of convection as well as on heat transport. Amongst the three enclosures considered, it is found that tall and shallow enclosures transport maximum and minimum energy respectively. Enhancement of heat transport due to nanoparticles in the three enclosures is found to be in the range 3% - 11%. Comparison of results in the case of rigid-rigid boundaries is made with those of an earlier work and good agreement is found. The study has limitations in the sense that thermophysical properties are calculated by using various quantities modelled for static condition.

Keywords: Enclosures, free-free, rigid-rigid and rigid-free boundaries, Ginzburg-Landau model, Lorenz model.

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Authors: M. S. Alam, M. R. Alam, Nusrat Jahan Imu

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This paper presents a computer simulation model based on system dynamics methodology for analyzing the dynamic characteristics of input energy structure in agriculture and Bangladesh is used here as a case study for model validation. The model provides an input energy structure linking the major energy flows with human energy and draft energy from cattle as well as tractors and/or power tillers, irrigation, chemical fertilizer and pesticide. The evaluation is made in terms of different energy dependent indicators. During the simulation period, the energy input to agriculture increased from 6.1 to 19.15 GJ/ha i.e. 2.14 fold corresponding to energy output in terms of food, fodder and fuel increase from 71.55 to 163.58 GJ/ha i.e. 1.28 fold from the base year. This result indicates that the energy input in Bangladeshi agricultural production is increasing faster than the energy output. Problems such as global warming, nutrient loading and pesticide pollution can associate with this increasing input. For an assessment, a comparative statement of input energy use in agriculture of developed countries (DCs) and least developed countries (LDCs) including Bangladesh has been made. The performance of the model is found satisfactory to analyze the agricultural energy system for LDCs

Keywords: Agriculture, energy indicator, system dynamics, energy flows.

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Authors: Mounira Rouaïnia, Mohamed Salah Medjram, Noureddine Doghmane

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In Multiple Sclerosis, pathological changes in the brain results in deviations in signal intensity on Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI). Quantitative analysis of these changes and their correlation with clinical finding provides important information for diagnosis. This constitutes the objective of our work. A new approach is developed. After the enhancement of images contrast and the brain extraction by mathematical morphology algorithm, we proceed to the brain segmentation. Our approach is based on building statistical model from data itself, for normal brain MRI and including clustering tissue type. Then we detect signal abnormalities (MS lesions) as a rejection class containing voxels that are not explained by the built model. We validate the method on MR images of Multiple Sclerosis patients by comparing its results with those of human expert segmentation.

Keywords: EM algorithm, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Mathematical morphology, Markov random model.

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Authors: Nhon Do, Hien Nguyen

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Nowadays there are many methods for representing knowledge such as semantic network, neural network, and conceptual graphs. Nonetheless, these methods are not sufficiently efficient when applied to perform and deduce on knowledge domains about supporting in general education such as algebra, analysis or plane geometry. This leads to the introduction of computational network which is a useful tool for representation knowledge base, especially for computational knowledge, especially knowledge domain about general education. However, when dealing with a practical problem, we often do not immediately find a new solution, but we search related problems which have been solved before and then proposing an appropriate solution for the problem. Besides that, when finding related problems, we have to determine whether the result of them can be used to solve the practical problem or not. In this paper, the extension model of computational network has been presented. In this model, Sample Problems, which are related problems, will be used like the experience of human about practical problem, simulate the way of human thinking, and give the good solution for the practical problem faster and more effectively. This extension model is applied to construct an automatic system for solving algebraic problems in middle school.

Keywords: educational software, artificial intelligence, knowledge base system, knowledge representation.

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Authors: S. M. Ali, N. R. Dhar

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Tool wear and surface roughness prediction plays a significant role in machining industry for proper planning and control of machining parameters and optimization of cutting conditions. This paper deals with developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model as a function of cutting parameters in turning steel under minimum quantity lubrication (MQL). A feed-forward backpropagation network with twenty five hidden neurons has been selected as the optimum network. The co-efficient of determination (R2) between model predictions and experimental values are 0.9915, 0.9906, 0.9761 and 0.9627 in terms of VB, VM, VS and Ra respectively. The results imply that the model can be used easily to forecast tool wear and surface roughness in response to cutting parameters.

Keywords: ANN, MQL, Surface Roughness, Tool Wear.

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Authors: Zongqing Lu

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It has proved that nonlinear diffusion and bilateral filtering (BF) have a closed connection. Early effort and contribution are to find a generalized representation to link them by using adaptive filtering. In this paper a new further relationship between nonlinear diffusion and bilateral filtering is explored which pays more attention to numerical calculus. We give a fresh idea that bilateral filtering can be accelerated by multigrid (MG) scheme which likes the nonlinear diffusion, and show that a bilateral filtering process with large kernel size can be approximated by a nonlinear diffusion process based on full multigrid (FMG) scheme.

Keywords: Bilateral filter, multigrid

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Authors: Thorben Kuprat, Julian Becker, Jonas Mayer, Peter Nyhuis

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For years now, it has been recognized that logistic performance capability contributes enormously to a production enterprise’s competitiveness and as such is a critical control lever. In doing so, the orientation on customer wishes (e.g. delivery dates) represents a key parameter not only in the value-adding production but also in product regeneration. Since production and regeneration processes have different characteristics, production planning and control measures cannot be directly transferred to regeneration processes. As part of a special research project, the Institute of Production Systems and Logistics Hannover is focused on increasing the logistic performance capability of regeneration processes for complex capital goods. The aim is to ensure logistic targets are met by implementing a model specifically designed to align the capacities and load in regeneration processes.

Keywords: Capacity planning, complex capital goods, logistic performance, regeneration process.

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Authors: Sherly Ferro Lensun

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Strategies influence the language abilities of both male and female learners in the learning process. Therefore, learning strategies are one of the critical factors for improving language learning and are essential as part of the initial learning effort. In general, language learning strategies differ between boys and girls. Therefore, this research aims to obtain a model that investigates the relationship between the selection of learning strategies, their frequency of use, and the learner's gender. In addition, we found differences in strategy use and their impact on language ability between males and females. 137 students participated and completed the questionnaire. There were 48 males (35%) and 90 females (65.7%). It was clear that most of the Japanese learners were women. Findings show that most Japanese learners in North Sulawesi used cognitive and social strategies and methods of involving others in learning Japanese.

Keywords: Learning strategies, Japanese Language, Gender by Japanese Learners, North sulawesi.

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Authors: Somayeh Sobati Moghadam

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Business processes are crucial for organizations and help businesses to evaluate and optimize their performance and processes against current and future-state business goals. Outsourcing business processes to the cloud becomes popular due to a wide varsity of benefits and cost-saving. However, cloud outsourcing raises enterprise data security concerns, which must be incorporated in Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). This paper, presents SeCloudBPMN, a lightweight extension for BPMN which extends the BPMN to explicitly support the security threats in the cloud as an outsourcing environment. SeCloudBPMN helps business’s security experts to outsource business processes to the cloud considering different threats from inside and outside the cloud. In this way, appropriate security countermeasures could be considered to preserve data security in business processes outsourcing to the cloud.

Keywords: BPMN, security threats, cloud computing, graphical representation.

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Authors: Tlou J. Ramabu

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Programming is one of the challenging subjects in the field of computing. In the higher education sphere, some programming novices’ performance, retention rate, and success rate are not improving. Most of the time, the problem is caused by the slow pace of learning, difficulty in grasping the syntax of the programming language and poor logical skills. More importantly, programming forms part of major subjects within the field of computing. As a result, specialized pedagogical methods and innovation are highly recommended. Little research has been done on the potential productivity of the WhatsApp platform as part of a blended learning model. In this article, the authors discuss the WhatsApp group as a part of blended learning model incorporated for a group of programming novices. We discuss possible administrative activities for productive utilisation of the WhatsApp group on the blended learning overview. The aim is to take advantage of the popularity of WhatsApp and the time students spend on it for their educational purpose. We believe that blended learning featuring a WhatsApp group may ease novices’ cognitive load and strengthen their foundational programming knowledge and skills. This is a work in progress as the proposed blended learning model with WhatsApp incorporated is yet to be implemented.

Keywords: Blended learning, higher education, WhatsApp, programming, novices, lecturers.

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Authors: F. Urem, K. Fertalj, I. Livaja

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Constant upgrading of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems is necessary, but can cause new defects. This paper attempts to model the likelihood of defects after completed upgrades with Weibull defect probability density function (PDF). A case study is presented analyzing data of recorded defects obtained for one ERP subsystem. The trends are observed for the value of the parameters relevant to the proposed statistical Weibull distribution for a given one year period. As a result, the ability to predict the appearance of defects after the next upgrade is described.

Keywords: ERP, upgrade, reliability, Weibull model

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Authors: Alireza Noorpoor, Akbar Abvabi, Mehdi Saeed Kiasat

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Development, calibration and validation of a threedimensional model of the Legform impactor for pedestrian crash with bumper are presented. Lower limb injury is becoming an increasingly important concern in vehicle safety for both occupants and pedestrians. In order to prevent lower extremity injuries to a pedestrian when struck by a car, it is important to elucidate the loadings from car front structures on the lower extremities and the injury mechanism caused by these loadings. An impact test procedure with a legform addressing lower limb injuries in car pedestrian accidents has been proposed by EEVC/WG17. In this study a modified legform impactor is introduced and validated against EEVC/WG17 criteria. The finite element model of this legform is developed using LS-DYNA software. Total mass of legform impactor is 13.4 kg.Technical specifications including the mass and location of the center of gravity and moment of inertia about a horizontal axis through the respective centre of gravity in femur and tibia are determined. The obtained results of legform impactor static and dynamic tests are as specified in the EEVC/WG17.

Keywords: Legform impactor, Pedestrian safety, Finite element model, Knee joint, EEVC/WG17.

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Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, cause of failure, intensity, linear degradation path, masked data, reliability function.

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Authors: J. X. Dong, C. J. An, Z. Chen, E. H. Owens, M. C. Boufadel, E. Taylor, K. Lee

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Shorelines are vulnerable to significant environmental impacts from oil spills. Stranded oil can cause potential short- to long-term detrimental effects along beaches that include injuries to ecosystem, socio-economic and cultural resources. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling approach is developed to evaluate the fate and transport of spilled oil for hypothetical oiled shoreline cases under various combinations of beach geomorphology and environmental conditions. The developed model estimates the spatial and temporal distribution of spilled oil for the various test conditions, using the finite volume method and considering the physical transport (dispersion and advection), sinks, and sorption processes. The model includes a user-friendly interface for data input on variables such as beach properties, environmental conditions, and physical-chemical properties of spilled oil. An experimental meso-scale tank design was used to test the developed model for dissolved petroleum hydrocarbon within shorelines. The simulated results for effects of different sediment substrates, oil types, and shoreline features for the transport of spilled oil are comparable to that obtained with a commercially available model. Results show that the properties of substrates and the oil removal by shoreline effects have significant impacts on oil transport in the beach area. Sensitivity analysis, through the application of the one-step-at-a-time method (OAT), for the 3D model identified hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameter. The 3D numerical model allows users to examine the behavior of oil on and within beaches, assess potential environmental impacts, and provide technical support for decisions related to shoreline clean-up operations.

Keywords: dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons, environmental multimedia model, finite volume method, FVM, sensitivity analysis, total petroleum hydrocarbons, TPH

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: Subrato Saha, Yun-Hyun Cho

Abstract:

This paper presents the design process of a high performance 3-phase 3.7 kW 2-pole line start permanent magnet synchronous motor for pumping system. A method was proposed to study the starting torque characteristics considering line start with high inertia load. A d-q model including cage was built to study the synchronization capability. Time-stepping finite element method analysis was utilized to accurately predict the dynamic and transient performance, efficiency, starting current, speed curve and etc. Considering the load torque of pumps during starting stage, the rotor bar was designed with minimum demagnetization of permanent magnet caused by huge starting current.

Keywords: LSPM, starting analysis, demagnetization, FEA, pumping system.

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