Search results for: analytical modeling.

Authors: Gionata Carmignani, Mario G. C. A. Cimino, Franco Failli

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Business Processes (BPs) are the key instrument to understand how companies operate at an organizational level, taking an as-is view of the workflow, and how to address their issues by identifying a to-be model. In last year’s, the BP Model and Notation (BPMN) has become a de-facto standard for modeling processes. However, this standard does not incorporate explicitly the Problem- Solving (PS) knowledge in the Process Modeling (PM) results. Thus, such knowledge cannot be shared or reused. To narrow this gap is today a challenging research area. In this paper we present a framework able to capture the PS knowledge and to improve a workflow. This framework extends the BPMN specification by incorporating new general-purpose elements. A pilot scenario is also presented and discussed.

Keywords: Business Process Management, BPMN, Problem Solving, Process mapping.

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Authors: Mohamed A. Khlifi, Badr M. Alshammari

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This paper discusses the general methods to saturation in the steady-state, two axis (d & q) frame models of synchronous machines. In particular, the important role of the magnetic coupling between the d-q axes (cross-magnetizing phenomenon), is demonstrated. For that purpose, distinct methods of saturation modeling of dumper synchronous machine with cross-saturation are identified, and detailed models synthesis in d-q axes. A number of models are given in the final developed form. The procedure and the novel models are verified by a critical application to prove the validity of the method and the equivalence between all developed models is reported. Advantages of some of the models over the existing ones and their applicability are discussed.

Keywords: Cross-magnetizing, models synthesis, synchronous machine, saturated modeling, state-space vectors.

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Authors: Adil Loya, Kamran Maqsood, Muhammad Duraid

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Aerodynamic stability coefficients are necessary to be known before any unmanned aircraft flight is performed. This requires expertise on aerodynamics and stability control of the aircraft. To enable efficacious performance of aircraft requires that a well-defined flight path and aerodynamics should be defined beforehand. This paper presents a study on the aerodynamics of an unmanned aero vehicle (UAV) during flight conditions. Current research holds comparative studies of different parameters for flight aerodynamic, measured using two different open source analytical software programs. These software packages are DATCOM and XLRF5, which help in depicting the flight aerodynamic variables. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was also used to perform aerodynamic analysis for which Star CCM+ was used. Output trends of the study demonstrate high accuracies between the two software programs with that of CFD. It can be seen that the Coefficient of Lift (CL) obtained from DATCOM and XFLR is similar to CL of CFD simulation. In the similar manner, other potential aerodynamic stability parameters obtained from analytical software are in good agreement with CFD.

Keywords: XFLR5, DATCOM, computational fluid dynamic, unmanned aero vehicle.

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Authors: Yasuo Obikane

Abstract:

This work is to study a roll of the fluctuating density gradient in the compressible flows for the computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A new anisotropy tensor with the fluctuating density gradient is introduced, and is used for an invariant modeling technique to model the turbulent density gradient correlation equation derived from the continuity equation. The modeling equation is decomposed into three groups: group proportional to the mean velocity, and that proportional to the mean strain rate, and that proportional to the mean density. The characteristics of the correlation in a wake are extracted from the results by the two dimensional direct simulation, and shows the strong correlation with the vorticity in the wake near the body. Thus, it can be concluded that the correlation of the density gradient is a significant parameter to describe the quick generation of the turbulent property in the compressible flows.

Keywords: Turbulence Modeling , Density Gradient Correlation, Compressible

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Authors: Rafayel A. Azizyan, Aram E. Gevogyan, Valeri B. Arakelyan, Emil S. Gevorgyan

Abstract:

The mathematical modeling of different biological processes is usually used to predict or assess behavior of systems in which these processes take place. This study deals with mathematical and computer modeling of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ping-pong mechanism, which play an important role in different biochemical pathways. Besides that, three models of competitive inhibition were designed using different software packages. The main objective of this study is to represent the results from in silico investigation of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ordered pingpong mechanism in the presence of competitive inhibitors, as well as to describe in details the inhibition effects. The simulation of the models with certain kinetic parameters allowed investigating the behavior of reactions as well as determined some interesting aspects concerning influence of different cases of competitive inhibition. Simultaneous presence of two inhibitors, competitive to the S1 and S2 substrates have been studied. Moreover, we have found the pattern of simultaneous influence of both inhibitors.

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, bi-substrate enzymatic reactions, ping-pong mechanism, competitive inhibition.

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Authors: Anwar Jarndal

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In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design & modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization.

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Authors: P. C. Tewari, Rajiv Kumar, Dinesh Khanduja

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This paper discusses the performance modeling and availability analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry. The Textile Industry is a complex and repairable engineering system. Yarn Dyeing System of Textile Industry consists of five subsystems arranged in series configuration. For performance modeling and analysis of availability, a performance evaluating model has been developed with the help of mathematical formulation based on Markov-Birth-Death Process. The differential equations have been developed on the basis of Probabilistic Approach using a Transition Diagram. These equations have further been solved using normalizing condition in order to develop the steady state availability, a performance measure of the system concerned. The system performance has been further analyzed with the help of decision matrices. These matrices provide various availability levels for different combinations of failure and repair rates for various subsystems. The findings of this paper are therefore, considered to be useful for the analysis of availability and determination of the best possible maintenance strategies which can be implemented in future to enhance the system performance.

Keywords: Availability Analysis, Markov Process, Performance Modeling, Steady State Availability.

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Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

Abstract:

The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: Evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO.

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Authors: Lambros V. Skarlas, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Efstratios F. Georgopoulos, Adam V. Adamopoulos

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The aim of this contribution is to present a new approach in modeling the electrical activity of the human heart. A recurrent artificial neural network is being used in order to exhibit a subset of the dynamics of the electrical behavior of the human heart. The proposed model can also be used, when integrated, as a diagnostic tool of the human heart system. What makes this approach unique is the fact that every model is being developed from physiological measurements of an individual. This kind of approach is very difficult to apply successfully in many modeling problems, because of the complexity and entropy of the free variables describing the complex system. Differences between the modeled variables and the variables of an individual, measured at specific moments, can be used for diagnostic purposes. The sensor fusion used in order to optimize the utilization of biomedical sensors is another point that this paper focuses on. Sensor fusion has been known for its advantages in applications such as control and diagnostics of mechanical and chemical processes.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Diagnostic System, Health Condition Modeling Tool, Heart Diagnostics Model, Heart Electricity Model.

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Authors: Sema Kurtuluş, Kemal Kurtuluş

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The objective of this paper is to review and assess the methodological issues and problems in marketing research, data and knowledge mining in Turkey. As a summary, academic marketing research publications in Turkey have significant problems. The most vital problem seems to be related with modeling. Most of the publications had major weaknesses in modeling. There were also, serious problems regarding measurement and scaling, sampling and analyses. Analyses myopia seems to be the most important problem for young academia in Turkey. Another very important finding is the lack of publications on data and knowledge mining in the academic world.

Keywords: Marketing research, data mining, knowledge mining, research modeling, analyses.

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Authors: R. M. Farouk

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an analytical analysis of the representation of images as the magnitudes of their transform with the discrete wavelets. Such a representation plays as a model for complex cells in the early stage of visual processing and of high technical usefulness for image understanding, because it makes the representation insensitive to small local shifts. We found that if the signals are band limited and of zero mean, then reconstruction from the magnitudes is unique up to the sign for almost all signals. We also present an iterative reconstruction algorithm which yields very good reconstruction up to the sign minor numerical errors in the very low frequencies.

Keywords: Wavelets, Image processing signal processing, Image reconstruction

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Authors: Akash K. Walunj, Dipendu Bhunia, Samarth Gupta, Prabhat Gupta

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Coupled shear walls consist of two shear walls connected intermittently by beams along the height. The behavior of coupled shear walls is mainly governed by the coupling beams. The coupling beams are designed for ductile inelastic behavior in order to dissipate energy. The base of the shear walls may be designed for elastic or ductile inelastic behavior. The amount of energy dissipation depends on the yield moment capacity and plastic rotation capacity of the coupling beams. In this paper, an analytical model of coupling beam was developed to calculate the rotations and moment capacities of coupling beam with conventional reinforcement.

Keywords: Design studies, computational model(s), case study/studies, modeling, coupling beam.

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Authors: F. Hosseinpour, H. Hajihosseini

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Simulation is a very helpful and valuable work tool in manufacturing. It can be used in industrial field allowing the system`s behavior to be learnt and tested. Simulation provides a low cost, secure and fast analysis tool. It also provides benefits, which can be reached with many different system configurations. Topics to be discussed include: Applications, Modeling, Validating, Software and benefits of simulation. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on research efforts in simulation.

Keywords: Manufacturing, modeling, simulation, training.

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Authors: Jatinder Kumar, Ajay Bansal

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The present study deals with the modeling and simulation of flow through an annular reactor at different hydrodynamic conditions using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate the flow behavior. CFD modeling was utilized to predict velocity distribution and average velocity in the annular geometry. The results of CFD simulations were compared with the mathematically derived equations and already developed correlations for validation purposes. CFD modeling was found suitable for predicting the flow characteristics in annular geometry under laminar flow conditions. It was observed that CFD also provides local values of the parameters of interest in addition to the average values for the simulated geometry.

Keywords: Annular reactor, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), hydrodynamics, Rhodamine B

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication models based on SoC design methodology. Such a model can be used to support the modeling of the complex wireless communication systems. Therefore, the use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high-performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP-based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: SystemC, modeling, simulation, CSMA.

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Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

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The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: Complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT.

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Authors: M. Morri, A. Soualmia, P. Belleudy

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Vegetation affects the mean and turbulent flow structure. It may increase flood risks and sediment transport. Therefore, it is important to develop analytical approaches for the bed shear stress on vegetated bed, to predict resistance caused by vegetation. In the recent years, experimental and numerical models have both been developed to model the effects of submerged vegetation on open-channel flow. In this paper, different analytic models are compared and tested using the criteria of deviation, to explore their capacity for predicting the mean velocity and select the suitable one that will be applied in real case of rivers. The comparison between the measured data in vegetated flume and simulated mean velocities indicated, a good performance, in the case of rigid vegetation, whereas, Huthoff model shows the best agreement with a high coefficient of determination (R2=80%) and the smallest error in the prediction of the average velocities.

Keywords: Analytic Models, Comparison, Mean Velocity, Vegetation.

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Authors: Babak H. Mamamqani, Alimohammad Entezarmahdi

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There are many researches on parameters affecting seismic behavior of steel moment frames. Great deal of these researches considers cover plate connections with or without haunch and direct beam to column connection for exterior columns. Also there are experimental results for interior connections with equal beam depth on both sides but not much research has been performed on the seismic behavior of joints with unequal beam depth. Based on previous experimental results, a series of companion analyses have been set up considering different beam height and connection detailing configuration to investigate the seismic behavior of the connections. Results of this study indicate that when the differences between beams height on both side increases, use of haunch connection system leads to significant improvement in the seismic response whereas other configurations did not provide satisfying results.

Keywords: Analytical modeling, Haunch connection, Seismic design, Unequal beam depth.

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Authors: Yongsuk Jang Kim, Sun-Tae Chung, Boogyun Kim, Seongwon Cho

Abstract:

Realistic 3D face model is more precise in representing pose, illumination, and expression of face than 2D face model so that it can be utilized usefully in various applications such as face recognition, games, avatars, animations, and etc. In this paper, we propose a 3D face modeling method based on 3D dense morphable shape model. The proposed 3D modeling method first constructs a 3D dense morphable shape model from 3D face scan data obtained using a 3D scanner. Next, the proposed method extracts and matches facial landmarks from 2D image sequence containing a face to be modeled, and then reconstructs 3D vertices coordinates of the landmarks using a factorization-based SfM technique. Then, the proposed method obtains a 3D dense shape model of the face to be modeled by fitting the constructed 3D dense morphable shape model into the reconstructed 3D vertices. Also, the proposed method makes a cylindrical texture map using 2D face image sequence. Finally, the proposed method generates a 3D face model by rendering the 3D dense face shape model using the cylindrical texture map. Through building processes of 3D face model by the proposed method, it is shown that the proposed method is relatively easy, fast and precise.

Keywords: 3D Face Modeling, 3D Morphable Shape Model, 3DReconstruction, 3D Correspondence.

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Authors: Isabel Duarte de Almeida, João Vilas-Boas, Ana Abrantes Cabral

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The number and adequacy of Performance-Indicators (PIs) for organisational purposes are core to the success of organisations and a major concern to the sponsor of this research. This assignment developed a procedure to improve a firm’s performance assessment system, by identifying two key-PIs out of 28 initial ones, and by setting criteria and their relative importance to validate and rank the adequacy and the right number of operational metrics. The Analytical-Hierarchy-Process was used with a synthesismethod to treat data coming from the management inquiries. Although organisational alignment has been achieved, business processes should also be targeted and PIs continuously revised.

Keywords: Strategic performance assessment systems, Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).

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Authors: B.W. Field

Abstract:

For a variety of safety and economic reasons, engineering undergraduates in Australia have experienced diminishing access to the real hardware that is typically the embodiment of their theoretical studies. This trend will delay the development of practical competence, decrease the ability to model and design, and suppress motivation. The author has attempted to address this concern by creating a software tool that contains both photographic images of real machinery, and sets of graphical modeling 'tools'. Academics from a range of disciplines can use the software to set tutorial tasks, and incorporate feedback comments for a range of student responses. An evaluation of the software demonstrated that students who had solved modeling problems with the aid of the electronic tutor performed significantly better in formal examinations with similar problems. The 2-D graphical diagnostic routines in the Tutor have the potential to be used in a wider range of problem-solving tasks.

Keywords: CAL, graphics, modeling, structural distillation, tutoring.

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Authors: Akram Golestani, Mohammad Kazemeini, Farhad Khorasheh, Moslem Fattahi

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Modeling and simulation of fixed bed three-phase catalytic reactors are considered for wet air catalytic oxidation of phenol to perform a comparative numerical analysis between tricklebed and packed-bubble column reactors. The modeling involves material balances both for the catalyst particle as well as for different fluid phases. Catalyst deactivation is also considered in a transient reactor model to investigate the effects of various parameters including reactor temperature on catalyst deactivation. The simulation results indicated that packed-bubble columns were slightly superior in performance than trickle beds. It was also found that reaction temperature was the most effective parameter in catalyst deactivation.

Keywords: Catalyst deactivation, Catalytic wet air oxidation, Trickle-bed, Wastewater.

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Authors: M.karavanmasjedi, N.Hedayat , A.Rohani, H.Shirin

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Sedimentation process resulting from soil erosion in the water basin especially in arid and semi-arid where poor vegetation cover in the slope of the mountains upstream could contribute to sediment formation. The consequence of sedimentation not only makes considerable change in the morphology of the river and the hydraulic characteristics but would also have a major challenge for the operation and maintenance of the canal network which depend on water flow to meet the stakeholder-s requirements. For this reason mathematical modeling can be used to simulate the effective factors on scouring, sediment transport and their settling along the waterways. This is particularly important behind the reservoirs which enable the operators to estimate the useful life of these hydraulic structures. The aim of this paper is to simulate the sedimentation and erosion in the eastern and western water intake structures of the Dez Diversion weir using GSTARS-3 software. This is done to estimate the sedimentation and investigate the ways in which to optimize the process and minimize the operational problems. Results indicated that the at the furthest point upstream of the diversion weir, the coarser sediment grains tended to settle. The reason for this is the construction of the phantom bridge and the outstanding rocks just upstream of the structure. The construction of these along the river course has reduced the momentum energy require to push the sediment loads and make it possible for them to settle wherever the river regime allows it. Results further indicated a trend for the sediment size in such a way that as the focus of study shifts downstream the size of grains get smaller and vice versa. It was also found that the finding of the GSTARS-3 had a close proximity with the sets of the observed data. This suggests that the software is a powerful analytical tool which can be applied in the river engineering project with a minimum of costs and relatively accurate results.

Keywords: Erosion, sedimentation, Dez Diversion weir, GSTARS-3

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Authors: Nour Charara, Hussein Charara, Omar Abou Khaled, Hani Abdallah, Elena Mugellini

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a human behavior modeling approach in videos scenes. This approach is used to model the normal behaviors in the conference halls. We exploited the Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis technique (PLSA), using the 'Bag-of-Terms' paradigm, as a tool for exploring video data to learn the model by grouping similar activities. Our term vocabulary consists of 3D spatio-temporal patch groups assigned by the direction of motion. Our video representation ensures the spatial information, the object trajectory, and the motion. The main importance of this approach is that it can be adapted to detect abnormal behaviors in order to ensure and enhance human security.

Keywords: Activity modeling, clustering, PLSA, video representation.

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Authors: Zakir Husain

Abstract:

This paper presents modeling and analysis of 12-phase distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM), which is capable of balancing the source currents in spite of unbalanced loading and phase outages. In addition to balance the supply current, the power factor can be set to a desired value. The theory of instantaneous symmetrical components is used to generate the twelve-phase reference currents. These reference currents are then tracked using current controlled voltage source inverter, operated in a hysteresis band control scheme. An ideal compensator in place of physical realization of the compensator is used. The performance of the proposed DTATCOM is validated through MATLAB simulation and detailed simulation results are given.

Keywords: DSTATCOM, Modeling, Load balancing, Multiphase, Power factor correction.

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Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

Abstract:

The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: Parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems.

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Authors: Yoon Koo Kang, Jung wan Park, Hyun Seok Yang

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This paper determines most common model of in-pipe robots to derive its degree of freedom in order to compare with the necessary degree of freedom required for a system to move inside pipelines freely in order to derive analytical reason for losing control of in-pipe robots at branched pipe. DOF of most common mechanism in in-pipe robots can be calculated by considering the robot as a parallel manipulator. A new design based on previously researched in-pipe robot PAROYS has been suggested, and its possibility to overcome branched section has been simulated.

Keywords: Branched pipe, Degree of freedom, In-pipe robot, Parallel manipulator.

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Authors: M. H. Ayazi, M. Qamari, N.Hedayat, A. Rohani

Abstract:

Simulation of the flow and sedimentation process in the reservoir dams can be made by two methods of physical and mathematical modeling. The study area was within a region which ranged from the Jelogir hydrometric station to the Karkheh reservoir dam aimed at investigating the effects of stream tubes on the GSTARS-3 model behavior. The methodologies was to run the model based on 5 stream tubes in order to observe the influence of each scenario on longitudinal profiles, cross-section, flow velocity and bed load sediment size. Results further suggest that the use of two stream tubes or more which result in the semi-two-dimensional model will yield relatively closer results to the observational data than a singular stream tube modeling. Moreover, the results of modeling with three stream tubes shown to yield a relatively close results with the observational data. The overall conclusion of the paper is with applying various stream tubes; it would be possible to yield a significant influence on the modeling behavior Vis-a Vis the bed load sediment size.

Keywords: Karkheh, stream tubes, GSTARS-3 Model, Jelogir hydrometric station.

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Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, M. Mortezaee

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Various factors such as the method of installation, the pile type, the pile material and the pile shape, can affect the final bearing capacity of a pile executed in the soil; among them, the method of installation is of special importance. The physical modeling is among the best options in the laboratory study of the piles behavior. Therefore, the current paper first presents and reviews the frustum confining vessel (FCV) as a suitable tool for physical modeling of deep foundations. Then, by describing the loading tests of two open-ended and closed-end steel piles, each of which has been performed in two methods, “with displacement" and "without displacement", the effect of end conditions and installation method on the final bearing capacity of the pile is investigated. The soil used in the current paper is silty sand of Firuzkuh, Iran. The results of the experiments show that in general the without displacement installation method has a larger bearing capacity in both piles, and in a specific method of installation the closed ended pile shows a slightly higher bearing capacity.

Keywords: physical modeling, frustum confining vessel, pile, bearing capacity, installation method

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Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

Abstract:

Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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