Search results for: Generation Rate Constraint (GRC)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4043

Search results for: Generation Rate Constraint (GRC)

1763 A Constitutive Model for Time-Dependent Behavior of Clay

Authors: T. N. Mac, B. Shahbodaghkhan, N. Khalili

Abstract:

A new elastic-viscoplastic (EVP) constitutive model is proposed for the analysis of time-dependent behavior of clay. The proposed model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and the concept of viscoplastic consistency framework to establish continuous transition from plasticity to rate dependent viscoplasticity. Unlike the overstress based models, this model will meet the consistency condition in formulating the constitutive equation for EVP model. The procedure of deriving the constitutive relationship is also presented. Simulation results and comparisons with experimental data are then presented to demonstrate the performance of the model.

Keywords: Bounding surface, consistency theory, constitutive model, viscosity.

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1762 A Fast Object Detection Method with Rotation Invariant Features

Authors: Zilong He, Yuesheng Zhu

Abstract:

Based on the combined shape feature and texture feature, a fast object detection method with rotation invariant features is proposed in this paper. A quick template matching scheme based online learning designed for online applications is also introduced in this paper. The experimental results have shown that the proposed approach has the features of lower computation complexity and higher detection rate, while keeping almost the same performance compared to the HOG-based method, and can be more suitable for run time applications.

Keywords: gradient feature, online learning, rotationinvariance, template feature

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1761 Numerical Study of MHD Effects on Drop Formation in a T-Shaped Microchannel

Authors: M. Aghajani Haghighi, H. Emdad, K. Jafarpur, A. N. Ziaei

Abstract:

The effect of a uniform magnetic field on the formation of drops of specific size has been investigated numerically in a T-shaped microchannel. Previous researches indicated that the drop sizes of secondary stream decreases, with increasing main stream flow rate and decreasing interfacial tension. In the present study the effect of a uniform magnetic field on the main stream is considered, and it is proposed that by increasing the Hartmann number, the size of the drops of the secondary stream will be decreased.

Keywords: Drop formation, Magnetohydrodynamics, Microchannel, Volume-of-Fluid

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1760 Improvement of Model for SIMMER Code for SFR Corium Relocation Studies

Authors: A. Bachrata, N. Marie, F. Bertrand, J. B. Droin

Abstract:

The in-depth understanding of severe accident propagation in Generation IV of nuclear reactors is important so that appropriate risk management can be undertaken early in their design process. This paper is focused on model improvements in the SIMMER code in order to perform studies of severe accident mitigation of Sodium Fast Reactor. During the design process of the mitigation devices dedicated to extraction of molten fuel from the core region, the molten fuel propagation from the core up to the core catcher has to be studied. In this aim, analytical as well as the complex thermohydraulic simulations with SIMMER-III code are performed. The studies presented in this paper focus on physical phenomena and associated physical models that influence the corium relocation. Firstly, the molten pool heat exchange with surrounding structures is analyzed since it influences directly the instant of rupture of the dedicated tubes favoring the corium relocation for mitigation purpose. After the corium penetration into mitigation tubes, the fuel-coolant interactions result in formation of debris bed. Analyses of debris bed fluidization as well as sinking into a fluid are presented in this paper.

Keywords: Corium, mitigation tubes, SIMMER-III, sodium fast reactor (SFR).

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1759 MHD Mixed Convection in a Vertical Porous Channel

Authors: B. Fersadou, H. Kahalerras

Abstract:

This work deals with the problem of MHD mixed convection in a completely porous and differentially heated vertical channel. The model of Darcy-Brinkman-Forchheimer with the Boussinesq approximation is adopted and the governing equations are solved by the finite volume method. The effects of magnetic field and buoyancy force intensities are given by the Hartmann and Richardson numbers respectively, as well as the Joule heating represented by Eckert number on the velocity and temperature fields, are examined. The main results show an augmentation of heat transfer rate with the decrease of Darcy number and the increase of Ri and Ha when Joule heating is neglected.

Keywords: Heat sources, magnetic field, mixed convection, porous channel.

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1758 The Comprehensive Study Based on Ultrasonic and X-ray Visual Technology for GIS Equipment Detection

Authors: Wei Zhang, Hong Yu, Xian-ping Zhao, Da-da Wang, Fei Xue

Abstract:

For lack of the visualization of the ultrasonic detection method of partial discharge (PD), the ultrasonic detection technology combined with the X-ray visual detection method (UXV) is proposed. The method can conduct qualitative analysis accurately and conduct reliable positioning diagnosis to the internal insulation defects of GIS, and while it could make up the blindness of the X-ray visual detection method and improve the detection rate. In this paper, an experimental model of GIS is used as the trial platform, a variety of insulation defects are set inside the GIS cavity. With the proposed method, the ultrasonic method is used to conduct the preliminary detection, and then the X-ray visual detection is used to locate and diagnose precisely. Therefore, the proposed UXV technology is feasible and practical.

Keywords: GIS, ultrasonic, visual detection, X-ray

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1757 Using Scrum in an Online Smart Classroom Environment: A Case Study

Authors: Ye Wei, Sitalakshmi Venkatraman, Fahri Benli, Fiona Wahr

Abstract:

The present digital world poses many challenges to various stakeholders in the education sector. In particular, lecturers of higher education (HE) are faced with the problem of ensuring that students are able to achieve the required learning outcomes despite rapid changes taking place worldwide. Different strategies are adopted to retain student engagement and commitment in classrooms to address the differences in learning habits, preferences and styles of the digital generation of students recently. Further, with the onset of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, online classroom has become the most suitable alternate mode of teaching environment to cope with lockdown restrictions. These changes have compounded the problems in the learning engagement and short attention span of HE students. New Agile methodologies that have been successfully employed to manage projects in different fields are gaining prominence in the education domain. In this paper, we present the application of Scrum as an agile methodology to enhance student learning and engagement in an online smart classroom environment. We demonstrate the use of our proposed approach using a case study to teach key topics in information technology that require students to gain technical and business-related data analytics skills.

Keywords: Agile methodology, Scrum, online learning, smart classroom environment, student engagement, active learning.

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1756 An Efficient Watermarking Method for MP3 Audio Files

Authors: Dimitrios Koukopoulos, Yiannis Stamatiou

Abstract:

In this work, we present for the first time in our perception an efficient digital watermarking scheme for mpeg audio layer 3 files that operates directly in the compressed data domain, while manipulating the time and subband/channel domain. In addition, it does not need the original signal to detect the watermark. Our scheme was implemented taking special care for the efficient usage of the two limited resources of computer systems: time and space. It offers to the industrial user the capability of watermark embedding and detection in time immediately comparable to the real music time of the original audio file that depends on the mpeg compression, while the end user/audience does not face any artifacts or delays hearing the watermarked audio file. Furthermore, it overcomes the disadvantage of algorithms operating in the PCMData domain to be vulnerable to compression/recompression attacks, as it places the watermark in the scale factors domain and not in the digitized sound audio data. The strength of our scheme, that allows it to be used with success in both authentication and copyright protection, relies on the fact that it gives to the users the enhanced capability their ownership of the audio file not to be accomplished simply by detecting the bit pattern that comprises the watermark itself, but by showing that the legal owner knows a hard to compute property of the watermark.

Keywords: Audio watermarking, mpeg audio layer 3, hard instance generation, NP-completeness.

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1755 A Review of in-orbit Observations of Radiation- Induced Effects in Commercial Memories onboard Alsat-1

Authors: Y. Bentoutou, A.M. Si Mohammed

Abstract:

This paper presents a review of an 8-year study on radiation effects in commercial memory devices operating within the main on-board computer system OBC386 of the Algerian microsatellite Alsat-1. A statistical analysis of single-event upset (SEU) and multiple-bit upset (MBU) activity in these commercial memories shows that the typical SEU rate at alsat-1's orbit is 4.04 × 10-7 SEU/bit/day, where 98.6% of these SEUs cause single-bit errors, 1.22% cause double-byte errors, and the remaining SEUs result in multiple-bit and severe errors.

Keywords: Radiation effects, error detection and correction, satellite computer, small satellite mission.

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1754 Aqueous Ranitidine Elimination in Photolytic Processes

Authors: Javier Rivas, Olga Gimeno, Maria Carbajo, Teresa Borralho

Abstract:

The elimination of ranitidine (a pharmaceutical compound) has been carried out in the presence of UV-C radiation. After some preliminary experiments, it has been experienced the no influence of the gas nature (air or oxygen) bubbled in photolytic experiments. From simple photolysis experiments the quantum yield of this compound has been determined. Two photolytic approximation has been used, the linear source emission in parallel planes and the point source emission in spherical planes. The quantum yield obtained was in the proximity of 0.05 mol Einstein-1 regardless of the method used. Addition of free radical promoters (hydrogen peroxide) increases the ranitidine removal rate while the use of photocatalysts (TiO2) negatively affects the process.

Keywords: Quantum yield, photolysis, ranitidine, watertreatment.

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1753 Analysis and Design of Offshore Triceratops under Ultra-Deep Waters

Authors: Srinivasan Chandrasekaran, R. Nagavinothini

Abstract:

Offshore platforms for ultra-deep waters are form-dominant by design; hybrid systems with large flexibility in horizontal plane and high rigidity in vertical plane are preferred due to functional complexities. Offshore triceratops is relatively a new-generation offshore platform, whose deck is partially isolated from the supporting buoyant legs by ball joints. They allow transfer of partial displacements of buoyant legs to the deck but restrain transfer of rotational response. Buoyant legs are in turn taut-moored to the sea bed using pre-tension tethers. Present study will discuss detailed dynamic analysis and preliminary design of the chosen geometric, which is necessary as a proof of validation for such design applications. A detailed numeric analysis of triceratops at 2400 m water depth under random waves is presented. Preliminary design confirms member-level design requirements under various modes of failure. Tether configuration, proposed in the study confirms no pull-out of tethers as stress variation is comparatively lesser than the yield value. Presented study shall aid offshore engineers and contractors to understand suitability of triceratops, in terms of design and dynamic response behaviour.

Keywords: Buoyant legs, dynamic analysis, offshore structures, preliminary design, random waves, triceratops.

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1752 Energy and Exergy Analysis of Dual Purpose Solar Collector

Authors: I. Jafari, A. Ershadi, E. Najafpour, N. Hedayat

Abstract:

Energy and exergy study of air-water combined solar collector which is called dual purpose solar collector (DPSC) is investigated. The method of ε - NTU is used. Analysis is performed for triangle channels. Parameters like the air flow rate and water inlet temperature are studied. Results are shown that DPSC has better energy and exergy efficiency than single collector. In addition, the triangle passage with water inlet temperature of 60O C has shown better exergy and energy efficiency.

Keywords: Efficiency, Exergy, Irreversibility, Solar collector.

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1751 A Method to Compute Efficient 3D Helicopters Flight Trajectories Based on a Motion Polymorph-Primitives Algorithm

Authors: Konstanca Nikolajevic, Nicolas Belanger, David Duvivier, Rabie Ben Atitallah, Abdelhakim Artiba

Abstract:

Finding the optimal 3D path of an aerial vehicle under flight mechanics constraints is a major challenge, especially when the algorithm has to produce real time results in flight. Kinematics models and Pythagorian Hodograph curves have been widely used in mobile robotics to solve this problematic. The level of difficulty is mainly driven by the number of constraints to be saturated at the same time while minimizing the total length of the path. In this paper, we suggest a pragmatic algorithm capable of saturating at the same time most of dimensioning helicopter 3D trajectories’ constraints like: curvature, curvature derivative, torsion, torsion derivative, climb angle, climb angle derivative, positions. The trajectories generation algorithm is able to generate versatile complex 3D motion primitives feasible by a helicopter with parameterization of the curvature and the climb angle. An upper ”motion primitives’ concatenation” algorithm is presented based. In this article we introduce a new way of designing three-dimensional trajectories based on what we call the ”Dubins gliding symmetry conjecture”. This extremely performing algorithm will be soon integrated to a real-time decisional system dealing with inflight safety issues.

Keywords: Aerial robots, Motion primitives, Robotics.

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1750 Analysis of Different Combining Schemes of Two Amplify-Forward Relay Branches with Individual Links Experiencing Nakagami Fading

Authors: Babu Sena Paul, Ratnajit Bhattacharjee

Abstract:

Relay based communication has gained considerable importance in the recent years. In this paper we find the end-toend statistics of a two hop non-regenerative relay branch, each hop being Nakagami-m faded. Closed form expressions for the probability density functions of the signal envelope at the output of a selection combiner and a maximal ratio combiner at the destination node are also derived and analytical formulations are verified through computer simulation. These density functions are useful in evaluating the system performance in terms of bit error rate and outage probability.

Keywords: co-operative diversity, diversity combining, maximal ratio combining, selection combining.

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1749 Deep Injection Wells for Flood Prevention and Groundwater Management

Authors: Mohammad R. Jafari, Francois G. Bernardeau

Abstract:

With its arid climate, Qatar experiences low annual rainfall, intense storms, and high evaporation rates. However, the fast-paced rate of infrastructure development in the capital city of Doha has led to recurring instances of surface water flooding as well as rising groundwater levels. Public Work Authority (PWA/ASHGHAL) has implemented an approach to collect and discharge the flood water into a) positive gravity systems; b) Emergency Flooding Area (EFA) – Evaporation, Infiltration or Storage off-site using tankers; and c) Discharge to deep injection wells. As part of the flood prevention scheme, 21 deep injection wells have been constructed to discharge the collected surface and groundwater table in Doha city. These injection wells function as an alternative in localities that do not possess either positive gravity systems or downstream networks that can accommodate additional loads. These injection wells are 400-m deep and are constructed in a complex karstic subsurface condition with large cavities. The injection well system will discharge collected groundwater and storm surface runoff into the permeable Umm Er Radhuma Formation, which is an aquifer present throughout the Persian Gulf Region. The Umm Er Radhuma formation contains saline water that is not being used for water supply. The injection zone is separated by an impervious gypsum formation which acts as a barrier between upper and lower aquifer. State of the art drilling, grouting, and geophysical techniques have been implemented in construction of the wells to assure that the shallow aquifer would not be contaminated and impacted by injected water. Injection and pumping tests were performed to evaluate injection well functionality (injectability). The results of these tests indicated that majority of the wells can accept injection rate of 200 to 300 m3 /h (56 to 83 l/s) under gravity with average value of 250 m3 /h (70 l/s) compared to design value of 50 l/s. This paper presents design and construction process and issues associated with these injection wells, performing injection/pumping tests to determine capacity and effectiveness of the injection wells, the detailed design of collection system and conveying system into the injection wells, and the operation and maintenance process. This system is completed now and is under operation, and therefore, construction of injection wells is an effective option for flood control.

Keywords: Deep injection well, wellhead assembly system, emergency flood area, flood prevention scheme, geophysical tests, pumping and injection tests, Qatar geology.

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1748 Mathematical Modeling of Machining Parameters in Electrical Discharge Machining of FW4 Welded Steel

Authors: M.R.Shabgard, R.M.Shotorbani

Abstract:

FW4 is a newly developed hot die material widely used in Forging Dies manufacturing. The right selection of the machining conditions is one of the most important aspects to take into consideration in the Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) of FW4. In this paper an attempt has been made to develop mathematical models for relating the Material Removal Rate (MRR), Tool Wear Ratio (TWR) and surface roughness (Ra) to machining parameters (current, pulse-on time and voltage). Furthermore, a study was carried out to analyze the effects of machining parameters in respect of listed technological characteristics. The results of analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicate that the proposed mathematical models, can adequately describe the performance within the limits of the factors being studied.

Keywords: Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM), linearregression technique, Response Surface Methodology (RSM)

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1747 A High-Speed Multiplication Algorithm Using Modified Partial Product Reduction Tree

Authors: P. Asadee

Abstract:

Multiplication algorithms have considerable effect on processors performance. A new high-speed, low-power multiplication algorithm has been presented using modified Dadda tree structure. Three important modifications have been implemented in inner product generation step, inner product reduction step and final addition step. Optimized algorithms have to be used into basic computation components, such as multiplication algorithms. In this paper, we proposed a new algorithm to reduce power, delay, and transistor count of a multiplication algorithm implemented using low power modified counter. This work presents a novel design for Dadda multiplication algorithms. The proposed multiplication algorithm includes structured parts, which have important effect on inner product reduction tree. In this paper, a 1.3V, 64-bit carry hybrid adder is presented for fast, low voltage applications. The new 64-bit adder uses a new circuit to implement the proposed carry hybrid adder. The new adder using 80 nm CMOS technology has been implemented on 700 MHz clock frequency. The proposed multiplication algorithm has achieved 14 percent improvement in transistor count, 13 percent reduction in delay and 12 percent modification in power consumption in compared with conventional designs.

Keywords: adder, CMOS, counter, Dadda tree, encoder.

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1746 A High Quality Speech Coder at 600 bps

Authors: Yong Zhang, Ruimin Hu

Abstract:

This paper presents a vocoder to obtain high quality synthetic speech at 600 bps. To reduce the bit rate, the algorithm is based on a sinusoidally excited linear prediction model which extracts few coding parameters, and three consecutive frames are grouped into a superframe and jointly vector quantization is used to obtain high coding efficiency. The inter-frame redundancy is exploited with distinct quantization schemes for different unvoiced/voiced frame combinations in the superframe. Experimental results show that the quality of the proposed coder is better than that of 2.4kbps LPC10e and achieves approximately the same as that of 2.4kbps MELP and with high robustness.

Keywords: Speech coding, Vector quantization, linear predicition, Mixed sinusoidal excitation

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1745 Solution of First kind Fredholm Integral Equation by Sinc Function

Authors: Khosrow Maleknejad, Reza Mollapourasl, Parvin Torabi, Mahdiyeh Alizadeh,

Abstract:

Sinc-collocation scheme is one of the new techniques used in solving numerical problems involving integral equations. This method has been shown to be a powerful numerical tool for finding fast and accurate solutions. So, in this paper, some properties of the Sinc-collocation method required for our subsequent development are given and are utilized to reduce integral equation of the first kind to some algebraic equations. Then convergence with exponential rate is proved by a theorem to guarantee applicability of numerical technique. Finally, numerical examples are included to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the technique.

Keywords: Integral equation, Fredholm type, Collocation method, Sinc approximation.

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1744 WDM and OCDMA Systems under MAI Effects: A Comparison Analysis

Authors: Hilal A. Fadhil, Thanaa Hussein Abd, Hamza M. R. Al-Khafaji, S. A. Aljunid

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparison between Spectrum- Sliced Wavelength Division Multiplexing (SS-WDM) and Spectrum Amplitude Coding Optical Code Division Multiple Access (SAC Optical CDMA) systems for different light sources. The performance of the system is shown in the simulated results of the bit error rate (BER) and the eye diagram of both systems. The comparison results indicate that the Multiple Access Interference (MAI) effects have a significant impact on SS-WDM over SAC Optical CDMA systems. Finally, in terms of spectral efficiency at constant BER of 10-12, SSWDM offers higher spectral efficiency than optical CDMA since no bandwidth expansion in needed.

Keywords: WDM, OCDMA, BER, RD code

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1743 Analysis on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Potential by Deploying the Green Cars in Korean Road Transport Sector

Authors: Sungjun Hong, Yanghon Chung, Nyunbae Park, Sangyong Park

Abstract:

South Korea, as the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, announced that the national reduction target of greenhouse gas emissions was 30% based on BAU (Business As Usual) by 2020. And the reduction rate of the transport sector is 34.3% which is the highest figure among all sectors. This paper attempts to analyze the environmental effect on deploying the green cars in Korean road transport sector. In order to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions, the LEAP model is applied in this study.

Keywords: Green car, greenhouse gas, LEAP model, road transport sector.

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1742 Study of a BVAR(p) Process Applied to U.S. Commodity Market Data

Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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1741 The Mitigation Strategy Analysis of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Pool Using MELCOR2.1/SNAP

Authors: Y. Chiang, J. R. Wang, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih, S. W. Chen

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 plant in Taiwan. There is more concern for the safety of Spent Fuel Pools (SFPs) in Taiwan after Fukushima event. In order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP SFP, by using MELCOR2.1 and SNAP, the safety analysis of Kuosheng NPP SFP was performed combined with the mitigation strategy of NEI 06-12 report. There were several steps in this research. First, the Kuosheng NPP SFP models were established by MELCOR2.1/SNAP. Second, the Station Blackout (SBO) analysis of Kuosheng SFP was done by TRACE and MELCOR under the cooling system failure condition. The results showed that the calculations of MELCOR and TRACE were very similar in this case. Second, the mitigation strategy analysis was done with the MELCOR model by following the NEI 06-12 report. The results showed the effectiveness of NEI 06-12 strategy in Kuosheng NPP SFP. Finally, a sensitivity study of SFP quenching was done to check the differences of different water injection time and the phenomena during the quenching. The results showed that if the cladding temperature was over 1600 K, the water injection may have chance to cause the accident more severe with more hydrogen generation. It was because of the oxidation heat and the “Breakaway” effect of the zirconium-water reaction. An animation model built by SNAP was also shown in this study.

Keywords: MELCOR, SNAP, spent fuel pool, quenching.

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1740 Data Mining to Capture User-Experience: A Case Study in Notebook Product Appearance Design

Authors: Rhoann Kerh, Chen-Fu Chien, Kuo-Yi Lin

Abstract:

In the era of rapidly increasing notebook market, consumer electronics manufacturers are facing a highly dynamic and competitive environment. In particular, the product appearance is the first part for user to distinguish the product from the product of other brands. Notebook product should differ in its appearance to engage users and contribute to the user experience (UX). The UX evaluates various product concepts to find the design for user needs; in addition, help the designer to further understand the product appearance preference of different market segment. However, few studies have been done for exploring the relationship between consumer background and the reaction of product appearance. This study aims to propose a data mining framework to capture the user’s information and the important relation between product appearance factors. The proposed framework consists of problem definition and structuring, data preparation, rules generation, and results evaluation and interpretation. An empirical study has been done in Taiwan that recruited 168 subjects from different background to experience the appearance performance of 11 different portable computers. The results assist the designers to develop product strategies based on the characteristics of consumers and the product concept that related to the UX, which help to launch the products to the right customers and increase the market shares. The results have shown the practical feasibility of the proposed framework.

Keywords: Consumers Decision Making, Product Design, Rough Set Theory, User Experience.

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1739 Ultra-Poor Revisited: A Case of Southern Thailand

Authors: Sirirat Taneerananon

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a study of the ultra-poor in the south of Thailand, revisited after 10 years since the original study in 2000. The original study was conducted in four provinces. The first two namely Phatthalung and Nakorn were chosen to represent the Thai Buddhists and the others, Satun and Pattani were chosen to represent the Thai Muslims. For this study, only the results from the three provinces except Pattani are reported as it was difficult and dangerous to conduct fieldwork in Pattani due to the continued unrest in the area since 2005.

The objectives of the study are to find out the changes of the poverty situation after 10 years and to see the impacts of the poverty reduction projects implemented by the government on the poor. The research methodology used both quantitative and qualitative methods. The same villages in the four provinces studied in 1999 were again chosen. In each village, five ultra-poor people and heads of the villages were interviewed. The results show that the poverty situation of the ultra-poor groups has not changed much since they lacked the basic key factor to get themselves out of poverty: The ownership of land. Their chronic poverty situation has been passed on from the last generation. In the province of Phatthalung, the ultra-poor have improved in terms of economic situation because of the big increase in the price of rubber. However, the same could not be said for other provinces. Even though the government’s projects have not reduced the poverty directly, the projects have significantly contributed to the improvement of the quality of life of the poor and the people in the areas. 

Keywords: Poverty, Southern Thailand, Ultra-poor.

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1738 A Construction Management Tool: Determining a Project Schedule Typical Behaviors Using Cluster Analysis

Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

Abstract:

Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule.

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1737 Capital Accumulation and Unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria, and South Africa

Authors: Abubakar Dikko

Abstract:

The research investigates the causes of unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa and the role of Capital Accumulation in reducing the unemployment profile of these economies as proposed by the post-Keynesian economics. This is conducted through extensive review of literature on the NAIRU models and focused on the post-Keynesian view of unemployment within the NAIRU framework. The NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) model has become a dominant framework used in macroeconomic analysis of unemployment. The study views the post-Keynesian economics arguments that capital accumulation is a major determinant of unemployment. Unemployment remains the fundamental socio-economic challenge facing African economies. It has been a burden to citizens of those economies. Namibia, Nigeria, and South Africa are great African nations battling with high unemployment rates. The high unemployment rate in the country led the citizens to chase away foreigners in the country claiming that they have taken away their jobs. The study proposes there is a strong relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria, and South Africa, and capital accumulation is responsible for high unemployment rates in these countries. For the economies to achieve steady state level of employment and satisfactory level of economic growth and development, there is need for capital accumulation to take place. The countries in the study have been selected after a critical research and investigations. They are selected based on the following criteria; African economies with high unemployment rates above 15% and have about 40% of their workforce unemployed. This level of unemployment is the critical level of unemployment in Africa as expressed by International Labour Organization (ILO). And finally, the African countries experience a slow growth in their Gross fixed capital formation. Adequate statistical measures have been employed using a time-series analysis in the study and the results revealed that capital accumulation is the main driver of unemployment performance in the chosen African countries. An increase in the accumulation of capital causes unemployment to reduce significantly. The results of the research work will be useful and relevant to federal governments and ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) of Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa to resolve the issue of high and persistent unemployment rates in their economies which are great burden that slows growth and development of developing economies. Also, the result can be useful to World Bank, African Development Bank and International Labour Organization (ILO) in their further research and studies on how to tackle unemployment in developing and emerging economies.

Keywords: Capital accumulation, NAIRU, post-Keynesian economics, unemployment.

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1736 Combining Diverse Neural Classifiers for Complex Problem Solving: An ECOC Approach

Authors: R. Ebrahimpour, M. Abbasnezhad Arabi, H. Babamiri Moghaddam

Abstract:

Combining classifiers is a useful method for solving complex problems in machine learning. The ECOC (Error Correcting Output Codes) method has been widely used for designing combining classifiers with an emphasis on the diversity of classifiers. In this paper, in contrast to the standard ECOC approach in which individual classifiers are chosen homogeneously, classifiers are selected according to the complexity of the corresponding binary problem. We use SATIMAGE database (containing 6 classes) for our experiments. The recognition error rate in our proposed method is %10.37 which indicates a considerable improvement in comparison with the conventional ECOC and stack generalization methods.

Keywords: Error correcting output code, combining classifiers, neural networks.

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1735 Proposal of Additional Fuzzy Membership Functions in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present, propose and examine additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions. Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecast , Fuzzy membership functions, Smoothingtransition, Time-series

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1734 Semantic Modeling of Management Information: Enabling Automatic Reasoning on DMTF-CIM

Authors: Fernando Alonso, Rafael Fernandez, Sonia Frutos, Javier Soriano

Abstract:

CIM is the standard formalism for modeling management information developed by the Distributed Management Task Force (DMTF) in the context of its WBEM proposal, designed to provide a conceptual view of the managed environment. In this paper, we propose the inclusion of formal knowledge representation techniques, based on Description Logics (DLs) and the Web Ontology Language (OWL), in CIM-based conceptual modeling, and then we examine the benefits of such a decision. The proposal is specified as a CIM metamodel level mapping to a highly expressive subset of DLs capable of capturing all the semantics of the models. The paper shows how the proposed mapping can be used for automatic reasoning about the management information models, as a design aid, by means of new-generation CASE tools, thanks to the use of state-of-the-art automatic reasoning systems that support the proposed logic and use algorithms that are sound and complete with respect to the semantics. Such a CASE tool framework has been developed by the authors and its architecture is also introduced. The proposed formalization is not only useful at design time, but also at run time through the use of rational autonomous agents, in response to a need recently recognized by the DMTF.

Keywords: CIM, Knowledge-based Information Models, Ontology Languages, OWL, Description Logics, Integrated Network Management, Intelligent Agents, Automatic Reasoning Techniques.

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