Search results for: computer aided analysis

Authors: Tao Zhang, Nan Yan

Abstract:

In recent years, the Chaoshan area, a special place located in the southeast of Guangdong province in China, actively protects religious heritage and is developing religious tourism, which is attracting many expatriate Chinese who are coming back for travel and to worship. This paper discussed three questions. Firstly, what is the current situation about the different social background of tourists’ motivation, satisfaction and behavioral intention? Secondly, is there a relationship between the motivation, satisfaction and behavioral intention and the different social backgrounds of tourists? Thirdly, what is the relationship between religious tourists’ motivation, satisfaction and behavioral intention? The research methods use a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis uses the method of observation and interviews. Convenient sampling technique was used for quantitative analysis. The study showed that the different social backgrounds of tourists’ forms diverse cognition and experiences about religious tourism, and their motivations, satisfaction and behavioral intention as tourists vary. Tourists’ motivation and satisfaction has a positive phase relation. Tourists’ motivation with satisfaction as the intervening variable also has a positive phase effect on tourists’ behavior intention. The result shows that religious tourists’ motivations include experiencing a religious atmosphere, and having a rest and recreation. The result also shows that religious tourists want to travel with their family members and friends. While traveling, religious tourists like to talk with Buddhist monks or nuns. Compared to other tourism types, religious tourists have higher expectations about temple environment, traveling experience, peripheral service and temple management.

Keywords: Behavioral intension, motivation, religious tourism, satisfaction.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian

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Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.

Keywords: Fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran.

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Authors: Natural Frequency Analysis of a Porous Functionally Graded Shaft System

Abstract:

The vibration characteristics of a functionally graded (FG) rotor model having porosities and micro-voids is investigated using three-dimensional finite element analysis. The FG shaft is mounted with a steel disc located at the midspan. The shaft ends are supported on isotropic bearings. The FG material is composed of a metallic (stainless-steel) and ceramic phase (zirconium oxide) as its constituent phases. The layer wise material property variation is governed by power law. Material property equations are developed for the porosity modelling. Python code is developed to assign the material properties to each layer including the effect of porosities. ANSYS commercial software is used to extract the natural frequencies and whirl frequencies for the FG shaft system. The obtained results show the influence of porosity volume fraction and power-law index, on the vibration characteristics of the ceramic-based FG shaft system.

Keywords: Finite element method, functionally graded material, porosity volume fraction, power law.

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Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

Abstract:

Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: Expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis.

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Authors: Mingaleva Zhanna, Kapuskina Tatiana

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The article touches upon questions of information security in Russian Economy. It covers theoretical bases of information security and causes of its development. The theory is proved by the analysis of business activities and the main tendencies of information security development. Perm region has been chosen as the bases for the analysis, being the fastestdeveloping region that uses methods of information security in managing it economy. As a result of the study the authors of the given article have formulated their own vision of the problem of information security in various branches of economy and stated prospects of information security development and its growing role in Russian economy

Keywords: security of business, management of information security, institutional analyses.

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Authors: Qihe Li, Yupin Luo

Abstract:

Camera calibration plays an important role in the domain of the analysis of sports video. Considering soccer video, in most cases, the cross-points can be used for calibration at the center of the soccer field are not sufficient, so this paper introduces a new automatic camera calibration algorithm focus on solving this problem by using the properties of images of the center circle, halfway line and a touch line. After the theoretical analysis, a practicable automatic algorithm is proposed. Very little information used though, results of experiments with both synthetic data and real data show that the algorithm is applicable.

Keywords: Absolute conic, camera calibration, circular points, line at infinity.

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Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman

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Electrical discharge machining (EDM) is a relatively modern machining process having distinct advantages over other machining processes and can machine Ti-alloys effectively. The present study emphasizes the features of the development of regression equation based on response surface methodology (RSM) for correlating the interactive and higher-order influences of machining parameters on surface finish of Titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V. The process parameters selected in this study are discharge current, pulse on time, pulse off time and servo voltage. Machining has been accomplished using negative polarity of Graphite electrode. Analysis of variance is employed to ascertain the adequacy of the developed regression model. Experiments based on central composite of response surface method are carried out. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis was performed to investigate the surface topography of the EDMed job. The results evidence that the proposed regression equation can predict the surface roughness effectively. The lower ampere and short pulse on time yield better surface finish.

Keywords: Graphite electrode, regression model, response surface methodology, surface roughness.

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Authors: Zi-Ang Li, Mu-Xuan Tao

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During the process of the industrialization of steel structure housing, a composite structural system with separated gravity and lateral resistant systems has been applied in engineering practices, which consists of composite frame with hinged beam-column joints, steel brace and RC shear wall. As an attempt in steel structural system area, seismic performance evaluation of the separated composite structure is important for further application in steel housing. This paper focuses on the seismic performance comparison of the separated composite structural system and traditional steel frame-shear wall system under the same inter-story drift ratio (IDR) provision limit. The same architectural layout of a high-rise building is designed as two different structural systems at the same IDR level, and finite element analysis using pushover method is carried out. Static pushover analysis implies that the separated structural system exhibits different lateral deformation mode and failure mechanism with traditional steel frame-shear wall system. Different indexes are adopted and discussed in seismic performance evaluation, including IDR, safe factor (SF), shear wall damage, etc. The performance under maximum considered earthquake (MCE) demand spectrum shows that the shear wall damage of two structural systems are similar; the separated composite structural system exhibits less plastic hinges; and the SF index value of the separated composite structural system is higher than the steel frame shear wall structural system.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, seismic performance evaluation, separated composite structural system, static pushover analysis.

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Authors: M.R.Isvandzibaei, P.J.Awasare

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In this paper a study on the vibration of thin cylindrical shells with ring supports and made of functionally graded materials (FGMs) composed of stainless steel and nickel is presented. Material properties vary along the thickness direction of the shell according to volume fraction power law. The cylindrical shells have ring supports which are arbitrarily placed along the shell and impose zero lateral deflections. The study is carried out based on third order shear deformation shell theory (T.S.D.T). The analysis is carried out using Hamilton-s principle. The governing equations of motion of FGM cylindrical shells are derived based on shear deformation theory. Results are presented on the frequency characteristics, influence of ring support position and the influence of boundary conditions. The present analysis is validated by comparing results with those available in the literature.

Keywords: Vibration, FGM, Cylindrical shell, Hamilton'sprinciple, Ring support.

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Authors: A. Chellil, A. Nour, S. Lecheb, H. Mechakra, A. Bouderba, H. Kebir

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In this paper, a coupled damage effect in the instability of a composite rotor is presented, under dynamic loading response in the harmonic analysis condition. The analysis of the stress which operates the rotor is done. Calculations of different energies and the virtual work of the aerodynamic loads from the rotor blade are developed. The use of the composite material for the rotor offers a good stability. Numerical calculations on the model developed prove that the damage effect has a negative effect on the stability of the rotor. The study of the composite rotor in transient system allowed determining the vibratory responses due to various excitations.

Keywords: Rotor, composite, damage, finite element, numerical.

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Authors: Thirumalai Selvi, N. V. Balasubramanian, P. Sheik Abdul Khader

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An empirical study of web applications that use software frameworks is presented here. The analysis is based on two approaches. In the first, developers using such frameworks are required, based on their experience, to assign weights to parameters such as database connection. In the second approach, a performance testing tool, OpenSTA, is used to compute start time and other such measures. From such an analysis, it is concluded that open source software is superior to proprietary software. The motivation behind this research is to examine ways in which a quantitative assessment can be made of software in general and frameworks in particular. Concepts such as metrics and architectural styles are discussed along with previously published research.

Keywords: Metrics, Frameworks, Performance Testing, WebApplications, Open Source.

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Authors: Yang Wenjuan, Xu Yilun

Abstract:

Based on the comparative analysis of the relevant evaluation methods of walking environment, this paper selects the combined evaluation method of macro urban morphology analysis and micro urban design quality survey, then investigates and analyzes the walking environment of three rail transit station area in Nanjing to explore the influence factor and internal relation of walkability of rail transit station area. Analysis shows that micro urban design factors have greater impact on the walkability of rail transit station area compared with macro urban morphology factors, the convenience is the key factor in the four aspects of convenience, security, identity and comfortability of the urban design factors, the convenience is not only affected by the block network form, but also related to the quality of the street space. The overall evaluation of walkability comes from the overlapping and regrouping of the walking environment at different levels, but some environmental factors play a leading role. The social attributes of pedestrians also partly influence their walking perception and evaluation.

Keywords: Rail transit station area, walkability, evaluation, influence factors.

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Authors: Bülent Dilmaç, Didem Aydoğan

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The use of new technologies such internet (e-mail, chat rooms) and cell phones has steeply increased in recent years. Especially among children and young people, use of technological tools and equipments is widespread. Although many teachers and administrators now recognize the problem of school bullying, few are aware that students are being harassed through electronic communication. Referred to as electronic bullying, cyber bullying, or online social cruelty, this phenomenon includes bullying through email, instant messaging, in a chat room, on a website, or through digital messages or images sent to a cell phone. Cyber bullying is defined as causing deliberate/intentional harm to others using internet or other digital technologies. It has a quantitative research design nd uses relational survey as its method. The participants consisted of 300 secondary school students in the city of Konya, Turkey. 195 (64.8%) participants were female and 105 (35.2%) were male. 39 (13%) students were at grade 1, 187 (62.1%) were at grade 2 and 74 (24.6%) were at grade 3. The “Cyber Bullying Question List" developed by Ar─▒cak (2009) was given to students. Following questions about demographics, a functional definition of cyber bullying was provided. In order to specify students- human values, “Human Values Scale (HVS)" developed by Dilmaç (2007) for secondary school students was administered. The scale consists of 42 items in six dimensions. Data analysis was conducted by the primary investigator of the study using SPSS 14.00 statistical analysis software. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the analysis of students- cyber bullying behaviour and simple regression analysis was conducted in order to test whether each value in the scale could explain cyber bullying behaviour.

Keywords: Cyber bullying, Values, Secondary SchoolStudents

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Authors: Abdelkader Benzian

Abstract:

Spectroscopy is the study of the spectrum produced by the radiation-matter interaction which requires the study of electromagnetic radiation (or electrons) emitted, absorbed, or scattered by matter. Thus, the spectral analysis is using spectrometers which enables us to obtain curves that express the distribution of the energy emitted (spectrum). Analysis of emission spectra can therefore constitute several methods depending on the range of radiation energy. The most common methods used are Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) and Electron Energy Losses Spectroscopy (EELS), which allow the determination of the atomic structure on the surface. This paper focalized essentially on the Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy.

Keywords: Dielectric, plasmon, mean free path, spectroscopy of electron energy losses.

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Authors: Ammar Abbas, Ibrahim M. Hussain, Osama M. Hussain

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The IEEE 802.11e which is an enhanced version of the 802.11 WLAN standards incorporates the Quality of Service (QoS) which makes it a better choice for multimedia and real time applications. In this paper we study various aspects concerned with 802.11e standard. Further, the analysis results for this standard are compared with the legacy 802.11 standard. Simulation results show that IEEE 802.11e out performs legacy IEEE 802.11 in terms of quality of service due to its flow differentiated channel allocation and better queue management architecture. We also propose a method to improve the unfair allocation of bandwidth for downlink and uplink channels by varying the medium access priority level.

Keywords: Wireless, IEEE 802.11e, EDCA, Throughput, QoS, MAC.

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Authors: D. Abdelrazek, M. NaguibAly, A. A. Badawi, Asmaa G. Abo Elnour, A. A. El-Kafas

Abstract:

This work is developed within IAEA Coordinated Research Program 1496, “Innovative methods in research reactor analysis: Benchmark against experimental data on neutronics and thermal-hydraulic computational methods and tools for operation and safety analysis of research reactors”.

The study investigates the capability of Code RELAP5/Mod3.4 to solve complex geometry complexity. Its results are compared to the results of PARET, a common code in thermal hydraulic analysis for research reactors, belonging to MTR-PC groups.

The WWR-SM reactor at the Institute of Nuclear Physics (INP) in the Republic of Uzbekistan is simulated using both PARET and RELAP5 at steady state. Results from the two codes are compared.

REALP5 code succeeded in solving the complex fuel geometry. The PARET code needed some calculations to obtain the final result. Although the final results from the PARET are more accurate, the small differences in both results makes using RELAP5 code recommended in case of complex fuel assemblies. 

Keywords: Complex fuel geometry, PARET, RELAP5, WWR-SM reactor.

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Authors: Gopalu Karunakaran, Matheswaran Jagathambal, Nguyen Van Minh, Evgeny Kolesnikov, Denis Kuznetsov

Abstract:

This work investigated the use of Beijerinckia indica extracellular extract for the synthesis of silver nanoparticles using AgNO₃. The formation of nanoparticles was confirmed by different methods, such as UV-Vis absorption spectroscopy, XRD, FTIR, EDX, and TEM analysis. The formation of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) was confirmed by the change in color from light yellow to dark brown. The absorbance peak obtained at 430 nm confirmed the presence of silver nanoparticles. The XRD analysis showed the cubic crystalline phase of the synthesized nanoparticles. FTIR revealed the presence of groups that acts as stabilizing and reducing agents for silver nanoparticles formation. The synthesized silver nanoparticles were generally found to be spherical in shape with size ranging from 5 to 20 nm, as evident by TEM analysis. These nanoparticles were found to inhibit pathogenic bacterial strains. This work proved that the bacterial extract is a potential eco-friendly candidate for the synthesis of silver nanoparticles with promising antibacterial and antioxidant properties. 

Keywords: Antioxidant activity, antimicrobial activity, Beijerinckia indica, characterisation, extracellular extracts, silver nanoparticles.

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Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

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This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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Authors: Reeta Devi, Hitender Kumar Tyagi, Dinesh Kumar

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In present scenario, cardiovascular problems are growing challenge for researchers and physiologists. As heart disease have no geographic, gender or socioeconomic specific reasons; detecting cardiac irregularities at early stage followed by quick and correct treatment is very important. Electrocardiogram is the finest tool for continuous monitoring of heart activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) is used to measure naturally occurring oscillations between consecutive cardiac cycles. Analysis of this variability is carried out using time domain, frequency domain and non-linear parameters. This paper presents HRV analysis of the online dataset for normal sinus rhythm (taken as healthy subject) and sudden cardiac death (SCD subject) using all three methods computing values for parameters like standard deviation of node to node intervals (SDNN), square root of mean of the sequences of difference between adjacent RR intervals (RMSSD), mean of R to R intervals (mean RR) in time domain, very low-frequency (VLF), low-frequency (LF), high frequency (HF) and ratio of low to high frequency (LF/HF ratio) in frequency domain and Poincare plot for non linear analysis. To differentiate HRV of healthy subject from subject died with SCD, k –nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier has been used because of its high accuracy. Results show highly reduced values for all stated parameters for SCD subjects as compared to healthy ones. As the dataset used for SCD patients is recording of their ECG signal one hour prior to their death, it is therefore, verified with an accuracy of 95% that proposed algorithm can identify mortality risk of a patient one hour before its death. The identification of a patient’s mortality risk at such an early stage may prevent him/her meeting sudden death if in-time and right treatment is given by the doctor.

Keywords: Early stage prediction, heart rate variability, linear and non linear analysis, sudden cardiac death.

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Authors: Y. Chiang, W. Y. Li, J. R. Wang, S. W. Chen, W. S. Hsu, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih

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In this research, the HABIT code was used to estimate the concentration under the CO₂ and H₂SO₄ storage burst conditions for Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP). The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) and reports were used in this research. In addition, to evaluate the control room habitability for these cases, the HABIT analysis results were compared with the R.G. 1.78 failure criteria. The comparison results show that the HABIT results are below the criteria. Additionally, some sensitivity studies (stability classification, wind speed and control room intake rate) were performed in this study.

Keywords: BWR, HABIT, habitability, KUOSHENG.

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Authors: Darwin Gouwanda, S. G. Ponnambalam

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Set covering problem is a classical problem in computer science and complexity theory. It has many applications, such as airline crew scheduling problem, facilities location problem, vehicle routing, assignment problem, etc. In this paper, three different techniques are applied to solve set covering problem. Firstly, a mathematical model of set covering problem is introduced and solved by using optimization solver, LINGO. Secondly, the Genetic Algorithm Toolbox available in MATLAB is used to solve set covering problem. And lastly, an ant colony optimization method is programmed in MATLAB programming language. Results obtained from these methods are presented in tables. In order to assess the performance of the techniques used in this project, the benchmark problems available in open literature are used.

Keywords: Set covering problem, genetic algorithm, ant colony optimization, LINGO.

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Authors: Alaa Alwani, Hassan Artail, Haidar Safa, Ayman Abi Abdallah, Bashir Basha, Tarek Abdel Khalek

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The noticeable advance in the area of computer technology has paved the way for the invention of powerful mobile devices. However, limited storage, short battery life, and relatively low computational power define the major problems of such devices. Due to the ever increasing computational requirements, such devices may fail to process needed tasks under certain constraints. One of the proposed solutions to this drawback is the introduction of Collaborative Computing, a new concept dealing with the distribution of computational tasks amongst several handhelds. This paper introduces the basics of Collaborative Computing, and proposes a new protocol that aims at managing and optimizing computing tasks in Ad-Hoc Collaborative Computing Environments.

Keywords: Handheld devices, Collaborative Computing, mainprocess, Collaboration Table.

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Authors: Qingqing Wang, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

In this paper, delay-dependent stability analysis for neutral type neural networks with uncertain paramters and time-varying delay is studied. By constructing new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and dividing the delay interval into multiple segments, a novel sufficient condition is established to guarantee the globally asymptotically stability of the considered system. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed main results.

Keywords: Neutral type neural networks, Time-varying delay, Stability, Linear matrix inequality(LMI).

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Authors: Nur Ilyani Ramli, Mansour Youseffi, Peter Widdop

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This paper presents a low cost design of heart beat monitoring device using reflectance mode PhotoPlethysmography (PPG). PPG is known for its simple construction, ease of use and cost effectiveness and can provide information about the changes in cardiac activity as well as aid in earlier non-invasive diagnostics. The proposed device is divided into three phases. First is the detection of pulses through the fingertip. The signal is then passed to the signal processing unit for the purpose of amplification, filtering and digitizing. Finally the heart rate is calculated and displayed on the computer using parallel port interface. The paper is concluded with prototyping of the device followed by verification procedure of the heartbeat signal obtained in laboratory setting.

Keywords: Reflectance mode PPG, Heart beat detection, Circuitdesign, PCB design

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Authors: S. R. Kumar, Shashikant Rajpal

Abstract:

A nanocrystalline thin film of ZnSe was successfully electrodeposited on copper substrate using a non-aqueous solution and subsequently annealed in air at 400°C. XRD analysis indicates the polycrystalline deposit of (111) plane in both the cases. The sharpness of the peak increases due to annealing of the film and average grain size increases to 20 nm to 27nm. SEM photograph indicate that grains are uniform and densely distributed over the surface. Annealing increases the average grain size by 20%. The EDS spectroscopy shows the ratio of Zn & Se is 1.1 in case of annealed film. AFM analysis indicates the average roughness of the film reduces from 181nm to 165nm due to annealing of the film. The bandgap also decreases from 2.71eV to 2.62eV.

Keywords: Electrodeposition, Non-aqueous medium, SEM, XRD.

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Authors: Ali Raad Hassan, G. Thanigaiyarasu, V. Ramamurti

Abstract:

Natural frequencies and dynamic response of a spur gear sector are investigated using a two dimensional finite element model that offers significant advantages for dynamic gear analyses. The gear teeth are analyzed for different operating speeds. A primary feature of this modeling is determination of mesh forces using a detailed contact analysis for each time step as the gears roll through the mesh. Transient mode super position method has been used to find horizontal and vertical components of displacement and dynamic stress. The finite element analysis software ANSYS has been used on the proposed model to find the natural frequencies by Block Lanczos technique and displacements and dynamic stresses by transient mode super position method. A comparison of theoretical (natural frequency and static stress) results with the finite element analysis results has also been done. The effect of rotational speed of the gears on the dynamic response of gear tooth has been studied and design limits have been discussed.

Keywords: Natural frequency, Modal and transientanalysis, Spur gear, Dynamic stress.

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Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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Authors: Sarma Cakula, Maija Sedleniece

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Simulation and modeling computer programs are concerned with construction of models for analyzing different perspectives and possibilities in changing conditions environment. The paper presents theoretical justification and evaluation of qualitative e-learning development model in perspective of advancing modern technologies. There have been analyzed principles of qualitative e-learning in higher education, productivity of studying process using modern technologies, different kind of methods and future perspectives of e-learning in formal education. Theoretically grounded and practically tested model of developing e-learning methods using different technologies for different type of classroom, which can be used in professor-s decision making process to choose the most effective e-learning methods has been worked out.

Keywords: E-learning, modeling, E-learning methods development, personal knowledge management

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Authors: J. Arneric, E. Jurun, L. Kordic

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This paper deals with econometric analysis of real retail trade turnover. It is a part of an extensive scientific research about modern trends in Croatian national economy. At the end of the period of transition economy, Croatia confronts with challenges and problems of high consumption society. In such environment as crucial economic variables: real retail trade turnover, average monthly real wages and household loans are chosen for consequence analysis. For the purpose of complete procedure of multiple econometric analysis data base adjustment has been provided. Namely, it has been necessary to deflate original national statistics data of retail trade turnover using consumer price indices, as well as provide process of seasonally adjustment of its contemporary behavior. In model establishment it has been necessary to involve the overcoming procedure for the autocorrelation and colinearity problems. Moreover, for case of time-series shift a specific appropriate econometric instrument has been applied. It would be emphasize that the whole methodology procedure is based on the real Croatian national economy time-series.

Keywords: Consumption society, multiple econometric model, real retail trade turnover, second order autocorrelation.

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Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

Abstract:

This paper presents a simplified version of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) - a conventional approach to evaluating the performance and ranking of competitive objects characterized by two groups of factors acting in opposite directions: inputs and outputs. DEA with a Perfect Object (DEA PO) augments the group of actual objects with a virtual Perfect Object - the one having greatest outputs and smallest inputs. It allows for obtaining an explicit analytical solution and making a step to an absolute efficiency. This paper develops this approach further and introduces a DEA model with Partially Perfect Objects. DEA PPO consecutively eliminates the smallest relative inputs or greatest relative outputs, and applies DEA PO to the reduced collections of indicators. The partial efficiency scores are combined to get the weighted efficiency score. The computational scheme remains simple, like that of DEA PO, but the advantage of the DEA PPO is taking into account all of the inputs and outputs for each actual object. Firm evaluation is considered as an example.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, Perfect object, Partially perfect object, Partial efficiency, Explicit solution, Simplified algorithm.

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