Search results for: optimum block size

Authors: Hee Jae Shin, In Pyo Cha, Min Sang Lee, Hyun Kyung Yoon, Tae Ho Kim, Yoon Sun Lee, Lee Ku Kwac, Hong Gun Kim

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Non-destructive testing and evaluation techniques for assessing the integrity of composite structures are essential to both reduce manufacturing costs and out of service time of transport means due to maintenance. In this study, Analyze into non-destructive test characterization of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP) internal and external defects using thermo-graphic camera and transient thermography method. non-destructive testing were characterized by defect size (Ø8, Ø10, Ø12, Ø14) and depth (1.2mm, 2.4mm).

Keywords: Non Destructive test (NDT), Thermal characteristic, Thermo graphic Camera, Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics (CFRP).

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Authors: Amirhossein Asadabadi, Amir Anvar

Abstract:

Small satellites have become increasingly popular recently as a means of providing educational institutes with the chance to design, construct, and test their spacecraft from beginning to the possible launch due to the low launching cost. This approach is remarkably cost saving because of the weight and size reduction of such satellites. Weight reduction could be realised by utilising electromagnetic coils solely, instead of different types of actuators. This paper describes the restrictions of using only “Electromagnetic" actuation for 3D stabilisation and how to make the magnetorquer based attitude control feasible using Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC). The design is developed to stabilize the spacecraft against gravity gradient disturbances with a three-axis stabilizing capability.

Keywords: Fuzzy, Attitude Control, Small Satellite, Fuzzy Logic Control, Electromagnetic, Magnetic Control.

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Authors: A. Pajaziti, H. Cana

Abstract:

In this paper, the structural genetic algorithm is used to optimize the neural network to control the joint movements of robotic arm. The robotic arm has also been modeled in 3D and simulated in real-time in MATLAB. It is found that Neural Networks provide a simple and effective way to control the robot tasks. Computer simulation examples are given to illustrate the significance of this method. By combining Genetic Algorithm optimization method and Neural Networks for the given robotic arm with 5 D.O.F. the obtained the results shown that the base joint movements overshooting time without controller was about 0.5 seconds, while with Neural Network controller (optimized with Genetic Algorithm) was about 0.2 seconds, and the population size of 150 gave best results.

Keywords: Robotic Arm, Neural Network, Genetic Algorithm, Optimization.

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Authors: Vijay Janyani, Neetu Joshi, Jigyasa Pagaria, Parul Pathak

Abstract:

Photonic Crystal (PhC) based devices are being increasingly used in multifunctional, compact devices in integrated optical communication systems. They provide excellent controllability of light, yet maintaining the small size required for miniaturization. In this paper, the band gap properties of PhCs and their typical applications in optical waveguiding are considered. Novel PhC based applications such as nonlinear switching and tapers are considered and simulation results are shown using the accurate time-domain numerical method based on Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) scheme. The suitability of these devices for novel applications is discussed and evaluated.

Keywords: Band gap engineering, Nonlinear switching, Photonic crystals, PhC tapers, waveguides.

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Authors: J. Wozniak, M. Kostecki, K. Broniszewski, W. Bochniak, A. Olszyna

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The influence of extrusion parameters on surface quality and properties of AA6061+x% vol. SiC (x = 0; 2,5; 5; 7,5;10) composites was discussed in this paper. The averages size of AA6061 and SiC particles were 10.6 μm and 0.42 μm, respectively. Two series of composites (I - compacts were preheated at extrusion temperature through 0.5 h and cooled by water directly after process; II - compacts were preheated through 3 hours and were not cooled) were consolidated via powder metallurgy processing and extruded by KoBo method. High values of density for both series of composites were achieved. Better surface quality was observed for II series of composites. Moreover, for these composites lower (compared to I series) but more uniform strength properties over the cross-section of the bar were noticed. Microstructure and Young-s modulus investigations were made.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, extrusion, metal matrix composites, microstructure

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Authors: Rehan Waheed, Hasan Aftab Saeed, Wasim Tarar, Khalid Mahmood, Sajid Ullah Butt

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Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) shielded doors made from brass extruded channels need to be welded with shielded enclosures to attain optimum shielding performance. Control of welding induced distortion is a problem in welding dissimilar metals like steel and brass. In this research, soldering of the steel-brass joint has been proposed to avoid weld distortion. The material used for brass channel is UNS C36000. The thickness of brass is defined by the manufacturing process, i.e. extrusion. The thickness of shielded enclosure material (ASTM A36) can be varied to produce joint between the dissimilar metals. Steel sections of different gauges are soldered using (91% tin, 9% zinc) solder to the brass, and strength of joint is measured by standard test procedures. It is observed that thin steel sheets produce a stronger bond with brass. The steel sections further require to be welded with shielded enclosure steel sheets through TIG welding process. Stresses and deformation in the vicinity of soldered portion is calculated through FE simulation. Crack formation in soldered area is also studied through experimental work. It has been found that in thin sheets deformation produced due to applied force is localized and has no effect on soldered joint area whereas in thick sheets profound cracks have been observed in soldered joint. The shielding effectiveness of EMI shielded door is compromised due to these cracks. The shielding effectiveness of the specimens is tested and results are compared.

Keywords: Dissimilar metals, soldering, joint strength, EMI shielding.

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Authors: S. Hellam, Y. Oulahrir, F. El Mounchid, A. Sadiq, S. Mbarki

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new method for threedimensional object indexing based on D.A.M.C-S.H.C descriptor (Direct and Analytical Method for Calculating the Spherical Harmonics Coefficients). For this end, we propose a direct calculation of the coefficients of spherical harmonics with perfect precision. The aims of the method are to minimize, the processing time on the 3D objects database and the searching time of similar objects to a request object. Firstly we start by defining the new descriptor using a new division of 3-D object in a sphere. Then we define a new distance which will be tested and prove his efficiency in the search for similar objects in the database in which we have objects with very various and important size.

Keywords: 3D Object indexing, 3D shape descriptor, spherical harmonic, 3D Object similarity.

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Authors: A. S. Kipcak, F. T. Senberber, E. Moroydor Derun, S. Piskin

Abstract:

Magnesium wastes and scraps, one of the metal wastes, are produced by many industrial activities, all over the world. Their growing size is becoming a future problem for the world. In this study, the use of magnesium wastes as a raw material in the production of the magnesium borate hydrates are aimed. The method used in the experiments is hydrothermal synthesis. The conditions are set to, waste magnesium to B2O3, 1:3 as a molar ratio. Four different reaction times are studied which are 30, 60, 120 and 240 minutes. For the identification analyses X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) and Raman spectroscopy techniques are used. As a result at all the reaction times magnesium borate hydrates are synthesized and the most crystalline forms are obtained at a reaction time of 120 minutes. The overall yields of the production are found between the values of 65-80 %.

Keywords: Hydrothermal synthesis, magnesium borates, magnesium wastes, boron oxide

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Authors: Wang Tong, He Pi-lian

Abstract:

This paper sets forth the possibility and importance about applying Data Mining in Web logs mining and shows some problems in the conventional searching engines. Then it offers an improved algorithm based on the original AprioriAll algorithm which has been used in Web logs mining widely. The new algorithm adds the property of the User ID during the every step of producing the candidate set and every step of scanning the database by which to decide whether an item in the candidate set should be put into the large set which will be used to produce next candidate set. At the meantime, in order to reduce the number of the database scanning, the new algorithm, by using the property of the Apriori algorithm, limits the size of the candidate set in time whenever it is produced. Test results show the improved algorithm has a more lower complexity of time and space, better restrain noise and fit the capacity of memory.

Keywords: Candidate Sets Pruning, Data Mining, ImprovedAlgorithm, Noise Restrain, Web Log

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Authors: Jiho Park, Yong-Gyu Lee, Gilwon Yoon

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Data security in u-Health system can be an important issue because wireless network is vulnerable to hacking. However, it is not easy to implement a proper security algorithm in an embedded u-health monitoring because of hardware constraints such as low performance, power consumption and limited memory size and etc. To secure data that contain personal and biosignal information, we implemented several security algorithms such as Blowfish, data encryption standard (DES), advanced encryption standard (AES) and Rivest Cipher 4 (RC4) for our u-Health monitoring system and the results were successful. Under the same experimental conditions, we compared these algorithms. RC4 had the fastest execution time. Memory usage was the most efficient for DES. However, considering performance and safety capability, however, we concluded that AES was the most appropriate algorithm for a personal u-Health monitoring system.

Keywords: biosignal, data encryption, security measures, u-health

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Authors: Mahmoud M. Othman, Yasser G. Hegazy

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel heuristic algorithm that aims to determine the best size and location of distributed generators in unbalanced distribution networks. The proposed heuristic algorithm can deal with the planning cases where power loss is to be optimized without violating the system practical constraints. The distributed generation units in the proposed algorithm is modeled as voltage controlled node with the flexibility to be converted to constant power factor node in case of reactive power limit violation. The proposed algorithm is implemented in MATLAB and tested on the IEEE 37 -node feeder. The results obtained show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Distributed generation, heuristic approach, Optimization, planning.

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Authors: Barzin Gavtash, Khalid Hussain, Mohammad Layeghi, Saeed Sadeghi Lafmejani

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This research aims at modeling and simulating the effects of nanofluids on cylindrical heat pipes thermal performance using the ANSYS-FLUENT CFD commercial software. The heat pipe outer wall temperature distribution, thermal resistance, liquid pressure and axial velocity in presence of suspended nano-scaled solid particle (i.e. Cu, Al2O3 and TiO2) within the fluid (water) were investigated. The effect of particle concentration and size were explored and it is concluded that the thermal performance of the heat pipe is improved when using nanofluid as the system working fluid. Additionally, it was observed that the thermal resistance of the heat pipe drops as the particle concentration level increases and particle radius decreases.

Keywords: CFD, Heat Pipe, Nanofluid, Thermal resistance

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Authors: Majid Tolouei-Rad, Anurag Dhull

Abstract:

This paper describes various stages of design and prototyping of a modular robot for use in various industrial applications. The major goal of current research has been to design and make different robotic joints at low cost capable of being assembled together in any given order for achieving various robot configurations. Five different types of joins were designed and manufactured where extensive research has been carried out on the design of each joint in order to achieve optimal strength, size, modularity, and price. This paper presents various stages of research and development undertaken to engineer these joints that include material selection, manufacturing, and strength analysis. The outcome of this research addresses the birth of a new generation of modular industrial robots with a wider range of applications and greater efficiency.

Keywords: Actuator, control system, configuration, robot.

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Authors: B. Tomczyk, R. Mania

Abstract:

Thin linear-elastic cylindrical circular shells having a micro-periodic structure along two directions tangent to the shell midsurface (biperiodic shells) are object of considerations. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we formulate an averaged nonasymptotic model for the analysis of parametric vibrations or dynamical stability of periodic shells under consideration, which has constant coefficients and takes into account the effect of a cell size on the overall shell behavior (a length-scale effect). This model is derived employing the tolerance modeling procedure. Second we apply the obtained model to derivation of frequency equation being a starting point in the analysis of parametric vibrations. The effect of the microstructure length oh this frequency equation is discussed.

Keywords: Micro-periodic shells, mathematical modeling, length-scale effect, parametric vibrations

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Authors: Rodrigo Montufar-Chaveznava

Abstract:

The colors of the human skin represent a special category of colors, because they are distinctive from the colors of other natural objects. This category is found as a cluster in color spaces, and the skin color variations between people are mostly due to differences in the intensity. Besides, the face detection based on skin color detection is a faster method as compared to other techniques. In this work, we present a system to track faces by carrying out skin color detection in four different color spaces: HSI, YCbCr, YES and RGB. Once some skin color regions have been detected for each color space, we label each and get some characteristics such as size and position. We are supposing that a face is located in one the detected regions. Next, we compare and employ a polling strategy between labeled regions to determine the final region where the face effectively has been detected and located.

Keywords: Tracking, face detection, image processing, colorspaces.

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Authors: Saima Ayaz, Zakir Hussain, Maqbool Hussain Sial

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The study identified the sources of production inefficiency of the farming sector in district Faisalabad in the Punjab province of Pakistan. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique was utilized at farm level survey data of 300 farmers for the year 2009. The overall mean efficiency score was 0.78 indicating 22 percent inefficiency of the sample farmers. Computed efficiency scores were then regressed on farm specific variables using Tobit regression analysis. Farming experience, education, access to farming credit, herd size and number of cultivation practices showed constructive and significant effect on the farmer-s technical efficiency.

Keywords: Agricultural credit, DEA, Technical efficiency, Tobit analysis

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Authors: R. G. Ramírez-Chavarría, C. Sánchez-Pérez, V. Argueta-Díaz

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In this paper we present the design of an optical device based on a Herriott multi-pass cell fabricated on a small sized acrylic slab for heat flux measurements using the deflection of a laser beam propagating inside the cell. The beam deflection is produced by the heat flux conducted to the acrylic slab due to a gradient in the refractive index. The use of a long path cell as the sensitive element in this measurement device, gives the possibility of high sensitivity within a small size device. We present the optical design as well as some experimental results in order to validate the device’s operation principle.

Keywords: Heat flux, herriott cell, optical beam deflection, thermal conductivity.

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Authors: Raghad Alhusari, Farag Omar, Moustafa Fadel

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A traditional greenhouse is a metal frame agricultural building used for cultivation plants in a controlled environment isolated from external climatic changes. Using greenhouses in agriculture is an efficient way to reduce the water consumption, where agriculture field is considered the biggest water consumer world widely. Controlling greenhouse environment yields better productivity of plants but demands an increase of electric power. Although various control approaches have been used towards greenhouse automation, most of them are applied to traditional greenhouses with ventilation fans and/or evaporation cooling system. Such approaches are still demanding high energy and water consumption. The aim of this research is to develop a fuzzy control system that minimizes water and energy consumption by utilizing outside weather conditions and underground heat exchanger to maintain the optimum climate of the greenhouse. The proposed control system is implemented on an experimental model of thermally isolated greenhouse structure with dimensions of 6x5x2.8 meters. It uses fans for extracting heat from the ground heat exchanger system, motors for automatic open/close of the greenhouse windows and LED as lighting system. The controller is integrated also with environmental condition sensors. It was found that using the air-to-air horizontal ground heat exchanger with 90 mm diameter and 2 mm thickness placed 2.5 m below the ground surface results in decreasing the greenhouse temperature of 3.28 ˚C which saves around 3 kW of consumed energy. It also eliminated the water consumption needed in evaporation cooling systems which are traditionally used for cooling the greenhouse environment.

Keywords: Automation, earth-to-air heat exchangers, fuzzy control, greenhouse, sustainable buildings.

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Authors: J. Davoodi, F. Katouzi

Abstract:

The aim of this research was to calculate the thermal properties of Au3Ni Nanowire. The molecular dynamics (MD) simulation technique was used to obtain the effect of radius size on the energy, the melting temperature and the latent heat of fusion at the isobaric-isothermal (NPT) ensemble. The Quantum Sutton-Chen (Q-SC) many body interatomic potentials energy have been used for Gold (Au) and Nickel (Ni) elements and a mixing rule has been devised to obtain the parameters of these potentials for nanowire stats. Our MD simulation results show the melting temperature and latent heat of fusion increase upon increasing diameter of nanowire. Moreover, the cohesive energy decreased with increasing diameter of nanowire.

Keywords: Au3Ni Nanowire, Thermal properties, Molecular dynamics simulation

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Authors: Farhan Beg

Abstract:

This paper presents a method for the efficient implementation of a unidirectional or bidirectional DC/DC converter. The DC/DC converter is used essentially for energy exchange between the low voltage service battery and a high voltage battery commonly found in Electric Vehicle applications. In these applications, apart from cost, efficiency of design is an important characteristic. A useful way to reduce the size of electronic equipment in the electric vehicles is proposed in this paper. The technique simplifies the mechanical complexity and maximizes the energy usage using the latest converter control techniques. Moreover a bidirectional battery charger for hybrid electric vehicles is also implemented in this paper. Several simulations on the test system have been carried out in Matlab/Simulink environment. The results exemplify the robustness of the proposed design methodology in case of a 1.5 KW DC-DC converter.

Keywords: DC-DC converters, Electric Vehicles, Direct Current Control.

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Authors: Omid Gervei, Ahmad Ayatollahi, Navid Gervei

Abstract:

In this paper we present an approach for 3D face recognition based on extracting principal components of range images by utilizing modified PCA methods namely 2DPCA and bidirectional 2DPCA also known as (2D) 2 PCA.A preprocessing stage was implemented on the images to smooth them using median and Gaussian filtering. In the normalization stage we locate the nose tip to lay it at the center of images then crop each image to a standard size of 100*100. In the face recognition stage we extract the principal component of each image using both 2DPCA and (2D) 2 PCA. Finally, we use Euclidean distance to measure the minimum distance between a given test image to the training images in the database. We also compare the result of using both methods. The best result achieved by experiments on a public face database shows that 83.3 percent is the rate of face recognition for a random facial expression.

Keywords: 3D face recognition, 2DPCA, (2D) 2 PCA, Rangeimage

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Authors: Saad Al-Gahtani, Ghassan H Al Shatter

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Argument over the use of particular method in interlanguage pragmatics has increased recently. Researchers argued the advantages and disadvantages of each method either natural or elicited. Findings of different studies indicated that the use of one method may not provide enough data to answer all its questions. The current study investigated the validity of using multimethod approach in interlanguage pragmatics to understand the development of requests in Arabic as a second language (Arabic L2). To this end, the study adopted two methods belong to two types of data sources: the institutional discourse (natural data), and the role play (elicited data). Participants were 117 learners of Arabic L2 at the university level, representing four levels (beginners, low-intermediate, highintermediate, and advanced). Results showed that using two or more methods in interlanguage pragmatics affect the size and nature of data.

Keywords: Arabic L2, Development of requests, Interlanguage Pragmatics, Multimethod approach.

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Authors: M. Shafighi, Z. Emami, M. Shahsanaei, E. Khaliliyan

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The aim of this study was to assess the effect of LAB isolated from Iranian native olives on the opportunistic skin pathogens, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus. Lactic Acid Bacteria were isolated from the brine of each sample in the prior of time. The samples were spread on MRS agar for isolation of lactobacillus and for lactococcus. 28 strains of labs were isolated. The labs were centrifuged, the supernatant was strewed and pellet was used to inoculation in wells or at blank disks. 20μl of each pellet was inoculated to blank disks and 40μl of each pellet was inoculated to each well. The result of disk and well diffusion agar against these pathogens were confirmed each other. The size of inhibition zone was different according to the type of bacteria, the method and the concentrations of labs.

Keywords: Olive, Probiotic, Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB), P.aeroginosa and S.aureus

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Authors: Tae-Heon Moon, Sun-Young Heo, Sang-Ho Lee, Youn-Taik Leem, Kwang-Woo Nam

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the possibility of crime prevention through CCTV by analyzing the appropriateness of the CCTV location, whether it is installed in the hotspot of crime-prone areas, and exploring the crime prevention effect and transition effect. The real crime and CCTV locations of case city were converted into the spatial data by using GIS. The data was analyzed by hotspot analysis and weighted displacement quotient (WDQ). As study methods, it analyzed existing relevant studies for identifying the trends of CCTV and crime studies based on big data from 1800 to 2014 and understanding the relation between CCTV and crime. Second, it investigated the current situation of nationwide CCTVs and analyzed the guidelines of CCTV installation and operation to draw attention to the problems and indicating points of CCTV use. Third, it investigated the crime occurrence in case areas and the current situation of CCTV installation in the spatial aspects, and analyzed the appropriateness and effectiveness of CCTV installation to suggest a rational installation of CCTV and the strategic direction of crime prevention. The results demonstrate that there was no significant effect in the installation of CCTV on crime prevention in the case area. This indicates that CCTV should be installed and managed in a more scientific way reflecting local crime situations. In terms of CCTV, the methods of spatial analysis such as GIS, which can evaluate the installation effect, and the methods of economic analysis like cost-benefit analysis should be developed. In addition, these methods should be distributed to local governments across the nation for the appropriate installation of CCTV and operation. This study intended to find a design guideline of the optimum CCTV installation. In this regard, this study is meaningful in that it will contribute to the creation of a safe city.

Keywords: CCTV, Safe City, Crime Prevention, Spatial Analysis.

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Authors: John T. Tsiligaridis

Abstract:

The broadcast problem including the plan design is considered. The data are inserted and numbered at predefined order into customized size relations. The server ability to create a full, regular Broadcast Plan (RBP) with single and multiple channels after some data transformations is examined. The Regular Geometric Algorithm (RGA) prepares a RBP and enables the users to catch their items avoiding energy waste of their devices. Moreover, the Grouping Dimensioning Algorithm (GDA) based on integrated relations can guarantee the discrimination of services with a minimum number of channels. This last property among the selfmonitoring, self-organizing, can be offered by servers today providing also channel availability and less energy consumption by using smaller number of channels. Simulation results are provided.

Keywords: Broadcast, broadcast plan, mobile computing, wireless networks, scheduling.

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Authors: Gabofetswe Malema, Michael Liebelt

Abstract:

LDPC codes could be used in magnetic storage devices because of their better decoding performance compared to other error correction codes. However, their hardware implementation results in large and complex decoders. This one of the main obstacles the decoders to be incorporated in magnetic storage devices. We construct small high girth and rate 2 columnweight codes from cage graphs. Though these codes have low performance compared to higher column weight codes, they are easier to implement. The ease of implementation makes them more suitable for applications such as magnetic recording. Cages are the smallest known regular distance graphs, which give us the smallest known column-weight 2 codes given the size, girth and rate of the code.

Keywords: Structured LDPC codes, cage graphs.

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Authors: B.R. Singh, O. Singh

Abstract:

Worldwide conventional resources of fossil fuel are depleting very fast due to large scale increase in use of transport vehicles every year, therefore consumption rate of oil in transport sector alone has gone very high. In view of this, the major thrust has now been laid upon the search of alternative energy source and also for cost effective energy conversion system. The air converted into compressed form by non conventional or conventional methods can be utilized as potential working fluid for producing shaft work in the air turbine and thus offering the capability of being a zero pollution energy source. This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and performance evaluation of a small capacity compressed air driven vaned type novel air turbine. Effect of expansion action and steady flow work in the air turbine at high admission air pressure of 6 bar, for varying injection to vane angles ratios 0.2-1.6, at the interval of 0.2 and at different vane angles such as 30o, 45o, 51.4o, 60o, 72o, 90o, and 120o for 12, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4 and 3 vanes respectively at speed of rotation 2500 rpm, has been quantified and analyzed here. Study shows that the expansion power has major contribution to total power, whereas the contribution of flow work output has been found varying only up to 19.4%. It is also concluded that for variation of injection to vane angle ratios from 0.2 to 1.2, the optimal power output is seen at vane angle 90o (4 vanes) and for 1.4 to 1.6 ratios, the optimal total power is observed at vane angle 72o (5 vanes). Thus in the vaned type novel air turbine the optimum shaft power output is developed when rotor contains 4-5 vanes for almost all situations of injection to vane angle ratios from 0.2 to 1.6.

Keywords: zero pollution, compressed air, air turbine, vaneangle, injection to vane angle ratios

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Authors: Marziyeh Yousefi, Hossein Nassaji

Abstract:

This paper reports the results of a meta-analysis of studies on the effects of instruction mode on learning second language pragmatics during the last decade (from 2006 to 2016). After establishing related inclusion/ exclusion criteria, 39 published studies were retrieved and included in the present meta-analysis. Studies were later coded for face-to-face and computer-assisted mode of instruction. Statistical procedures were applied to obtain effect sizes. It was found that Computer-Assisted-Language-Learning studies generated larger effects than Face-to-Face instruction.

Keywords: Meta-analysis, effect size, pragmatics, computer-assisted language learnin, face-to-face instruction, comprehensive meta-analysis software.

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Authors: S. Sukparungsee

Abstract:

Generally, the traditional Shewhart p chart has been developed by for charting the binomial data. This chart has been developed using the normal approximation with condition as low defect level and the small to moderate sample size. In real applications, however, are away from these assumptions due to skewness in the exact distribution. In this paper, a modified Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chat for detecting a change in binomial data by improving square root transformations, namely ISRT p EWMA control chart. The numerical results show that ISRT p EWMA chart is superior to ISRT p chart for small to moderate shifts, otherwise, the latter is better for large shifts.

Keywords: Number of defects, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average, Average Run Length, Square root transformations.

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Authors: H. Anıl, G. Kar

Abstract:

In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations, since the geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning and time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Doğal Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was predicted for the first one-week and first two-weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: Machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting.

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