Search results for: climate parameters

Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961- 2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: Air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change.

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Authors: Jan Busch, Sebastian Schneider, Konja Knüppel, Peter Nyhuis

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In production processes, assembly conceals a considerable potential for increased efficiency in terms of lowering production costs. Due to the individualisation of customer requirements, product variants have increased in recent years. Simultaneously, the portion of automated production systems has increased. A challenge is to adapt the flexibility and adaptability of automated systems to these changes. The Institute for Production Systems and Logistics developed an aerodynamic orientation system for feeding technology. When changing to other components, only four parameters must be adjusted. The expenditure of time for setting parameters is high. An objective therefore is developing an optimisation algorithm for automatic parameter configuration. Know how regarding the interaction of the four parameters and their effect on the sizes to be optimised is required in order to be able to develop a more efficient algorithm. This article introduces an analysis of the interactions between parameters and their influence on the quality of feeding.

Keywords: Aerodynamic feeding system, design of experiments, interactions between parameters.

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Authors: K. Kalaiselvan, K. Sekar, S. Elavarasi

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The use of laser beam welding for joining titanium and aluminum offers more advantages compared with conventional joining processes. Dissimilar metal combination is very much needed for aircraft structural industries and research activities. The quality of a weld joint is directly influenced by the welding input parameters. The common problem that is faced by the manufactures is the control of the process parameters to obtain a good weld joint with minimal detrimental. To overcome this issue, various parameters can be preferred to obtain quality of weld joint. In this present study an overall literature review on processing parameters such as offset distance, welding speed, laser power, shielding gas and filler metals are discussed with the effects on quality weldment. Additionally, mechanical properties of welds joint are discussed. The aim of the report is to review the recent progress in the welding of dissimilar titanium (Ti) and aluminum (Al) alloys to provide a basis for follow up research.

Keywords: Laser beam welding, titanium, aluminum, process parameters.

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Authors: A. Pashayev, C. Ardil, R. Sadiqov

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Various methods of geofield parameters restoration (by algebraic polynoms; filters; rational fractions; interpolation splines; geostatistical methods – kriging; search methods of nearest points – inverse distance, minimum curvature, local – polynomial interpolation; neural networks) have been analyzed and some possible mistakes arising during geofield surface modeling have been presented.

Keywords: interpolation methods, geofield parameters, neural networks.

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Authors: Nazif Çalış, Murat Erişoğlu, Hamza Erol, Tayfun Servi

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In the recent works related with mixture discriminant analysis (MDA), expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate parameters of Gaussian mixtures. But, initial values of EM algorithm affect the final parameters- estimates. Also, when EM algorithm is applied two times, for the same data set, it can be give different results for the estimate of parameters and this affect the classification accuracy of MDA. Forthcoming this problem, we use Self Organizing Mixture Network (SOMN) algorithm to estimate parameters of Gaussians mixtures in MDA that SOMN is more robust when random the initial values of the parameters are used [5]. We show effectiveness of this method on popular simulated waveform datasets and real glass data set.

Keywords: Self Organizing Mixture Network, MixtureDiscriminant Analysis, Waveform Datasets, Glass Identification, Mixture of Multivariate Normal Distributions

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Authors: Zhan Fengmei Yao, Hui Li, Jiahua Zhang g

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The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant decrease by 0.2 - 0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53- 2.0 t/10a. Their contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~ 35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s. Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north of NEC.

Keywords: Climate change, maize yields, varieties, planting date, impacts.

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Authors: E. Oke, A. O. Ladokun, J. O. Daramola, O. M. Onagbesan

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There has been a growing interest on the effects of access to pasture on poultry health status. However, there is a paucity of data on the relative benefits of grass and legume pastures. An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of rearing systems {deep litter system (DL), deep litter with access to legumes (LP) or grass (GP) pastures} haematology and serum chemistry of ISA Brown layers. The study involved the use of two hundred and forty 12 weeks old pullets. The birds were reared until 60 weeks of age. Eighty birds were assigned to each treatment; each treatment had four replicates of 20 birds each. Blood samples (2.5 ml) were collected from the wing vein of two birds per replicate and serum chemistry and haematological parameters were determined. The results showed that there were no significant differences between treatments in all the parameters considered at 18 weeks of age. At 24 weeks old, the percentage of heterophyl (HET) in DL and LP were similar but higher than that of GP. The ratio of H:L was higher (P<0.05) in DL than those of LP and GP while LP and GP were comparable. At week 38 of age, the percentage of PCV in the birds in LP and GP were similar but the birds in DL had significantly lower level than that of GP. In the early production phase, serum total protein of the birds in LP was similar to that of GP but higher (P<0.05) than that of DL. At the peak production phase (week 38), the total protein in GP and DL were similar but significantly lower than that of LP. The albumin level in LP was greater (P<0.05) than GP but similar to that of DL. In the late production phase, the total protein in LP was significantly higher than that of DL but similar to that of GP. It was concluded that rearing chickens in either grass or legume pasture did not have deleterious effects on the health of laying chickens but improved some parameters including blood protein and HET/lymphocyte.

Keywords: Rearing systems, Stylosanthes, Cynodon serum chemistry, haematology, hen.

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Authors: Famoriji J.Oluwole

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This research work examines the effect of variations of metrological parameters on the tropospheric radio refractivity during dry and raining seasons for Akure in 2013. The daily averages of radio refractivity during dry (January) and raining (August) seasons were calculated from the data obtained from the Nigeria Metrological Agency (NIMET). The data that was used for the computation of radio refractivity is a daily interval of the variations of metrological parameters for each day in the troposphere for Akure. Consequently, the daily averages of radio refractivity during raining season (August) were greater than the results in dry season (January) as a result of the variations in meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity and atmospheric pressure in the lower troposphere.

Keywords: Troposphere, Radio refractivity, Akure, Meteorological parameters.

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Authors: Abdullah Y. Al-Hossain

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This paper considers inference under progressive type II censoring with a compound Rayleigh failure time distribution. The maximum likelihood (ML), and Bayes methods are used for estimating the unknown parameters as well as some lifetime parameters, namely reliability and hazard functions. We obtained Bayes estimators using the conjugate priors for two shape and scale parameters. When the two parameters are unknown, the closed-form expressions of the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained. We use Lindley.s approximation to compute the Bayes estimates. Another Bayes estimator has been obtained based on continuous-discrete joint prior for the unknown parameters. An example with the real data is discussed to illustrate the proposed method. Finally, we made comparisons between these estimators and the maximum likelihood estimators using a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Keywords: Progressive type II censoring, compound Rayleigh failure time distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, Bayes estimation, Lindley's approximation method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

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Because the status and mechanical parameters of discontinuities in the rock mass are included in the calculations, various methods of rock engineering classification are often used as a starting point for the design of different types of structures. The Q-system is one of the most frequently used methods for stability analysis and determination of support systems of underground structures in rock, including tunnel. In this method, six main parameters of the rock mass, namely, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD), joint set number (Jn), joint roughness number (Jr), joint alteration number (Ja), joint water parameter (Jw) and Stress Reduction Factor (SRF) are required. In this regard, in order to achieve a reasonable and optimal design, identifying the effective parameters for the stability of the mentioned structures is one of the most important goals and the most necessary actions in rock engineering. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationships between the parameters of a system and how they interact with each other and, ultimately, the whole system. In this research, it has been attempted to determine the most effective parameters (key parameters) from the six parameters of rock mass in the Q-system using the Rock Engineering System (RES) method to improve the relationships between the parameters in the calculation of the Q value. The RES system is, in fact, a method by which one can determine the degree of cause and effect of a system's parameters by making an interaction matrix. In this research, the geomechanical data collected from the water conveyor tunnel of Azad Dam were used to make the interaction matrix of the Q-system. For this purpose, instead of using the conventional methods that are always accompanied by defects such as uncertainty, the Q-system interaction matrix is coded using a technique that is actually a statistical analysis of the data and determining the correlation coefficient between them. So, the effect of each parameter on the system is evaluated with greater certainty. The results of this study show that the formed interaction matrix provides a reasonable estimate of the effective parameters in the Q-system. Among the six parameters of the Q-system, the SRF and Jr parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively, and also the RQD and Jw parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively. Therefore, by developing this method, we can obtain a more accurate relation to the rock mass classification by weighting the required parameters in the Q-system.

Keywords: Q-system, Rock Engineering System, statistical analysis, rock mass, tunnel.

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Authors: Asit K Sikary, O. P. Murty

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In this study, we have collected cases with adipocere formation, which were from the South Delhi region (average room temperature 27-390C) and autopsied at our centre. Details of the circumstances of the death, cause and time of death, surrounding environment and demographic profile of the deceased were taken into account. Total 16 cases were included in this study. Adipocere formation was predominantly present over cheeks, shoulder, breast, flanks, buttocks, and thighs. Out of 16, 11 cases were found in a dry atmosphere, 5 cases were brought from the water. There were 5 cases in which adipocere formation was seen in less than 2 days, and among them, in 1 case, as early as one day. This study showed that adipocere formation can be seen as early as 1 day in a hot and humid environment.

Keywords: Adipocere, drowning, hanging, humid environment, strangulation, subtropical climate.

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Authors: S. Esfandeh, M. Sedighizadeh

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Weather systems use enormously complex combinations of numerical tools for study and forecasting. Unfortunately, due to phenomena in the world climate, such as the greenhouse effect, classical models may become insufficient mostly because they lack adaptation. Therefore, the weather forecast problem is matched for heuristic approaches, such as Evolutionary Algorithms. Experimentation with heuristic methods like Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm can lead to the development of new insights or promising models that can be fine tuned with more focused techniques. This paper describes a PSO approach for analysis and prediction of data and provides experimental results of the aforementioned method on realworld meteorological time series.

Keywords: Weather, Climate, PSO, Prediction, Meteorological

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Authors: Houman Saedi

Abstract:

Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) is one of the most commonest constructed asphalts in Iran and the quality control of constructed roads with HMA have been always paid due attention by researchers. The quality control of constructed roads with this method is being usually carried out by measuring volumetric parameters of HMA marshall samples. One of the important parameters that has a critical role in changing these volumetric parameters is “compaction temperature"; which as a result of its changing, volumetric parameters of Marshall Samples and subsequently constructed asphalt is encountered with variations. In this study, considering the necessity of preservation of the compaction temperature, the effect of various temperatures on Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) samples properties has been evaluated. As well, to evaluate the effect of this parameter on different grading, two different grading (Top coat index grading and binder index grading) have been used and samples were compacted at 5 various temperatures.

Keywords: Compaction Temperature, HMA, Volumetric Parameters, Marshall Method

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Authors: S. Grouni, R. Ibtiouen, M. Kidouche, O. Touhami

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Induction machine models used for steady-state and transient analysis require machine parameters that are usually considered design parameters or data. The knowledge of induction machine parameters is very important for Indirect Field Oriented Control (IFOC). A mismatched set of parameters will degrade the response of speed and torque control. This paper presents an improvement approach on rotor time constant adaptation in IFOC for Induction Machines (IM). Our approach tends to improve the estimation accuracy of the fundamental model for flux estimation. Based on the reduced order of the IM model, the rotor fluxes and rotor time constant are estimated using only the stator currents and voltages. This reduced order model offers many advantages for real time identification parameters of the IM.

Keywords: Indirect Field Oriented Control (IFOC), InductionMachine (IM), Rotor Time Constant, Parameters ApproachAdaptation. Optimum rotor flux.

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Authors: N. Feroze, M. Aslam

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The paper deals with the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the Burr type V distribution based on left censored samples. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the parameters have been derived and the Fisher information matrix for the parameters of the said distribution has been obtained explicitly. The confidence intervals for the parameters have also been discussed. A simulation study has been conducted to investigate the performance of the point and interval estimates.

Keywords: Fisher information matrix, confidence intervals, censoring.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, Mahdi Abachizadeh

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In this paper, a simulated annealing algorithm has been developed to optimize machining parameters in turning operation on cylindrical workpieces. The turning operation usually includes several passes of rough machining and a final pass of finishing. Seven different constraints are considered in a non-linear model where the goal is to achieve minimum total cost. The weighted total cost consists of machining cost, tool cost and tool replacement cost. The computational results clearly show that the proposed optimization procedure has considerably improved total operation cost by optimally determining machining parameters.

Keywords: Optimization, Simulated Annealing, Machining Parameters, Turning Operation.

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Authors: D. S. Mohale, A. V. Chandewar

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Aim- Study was undertaken to investigate the effect of altered behavioral condition like depression on various oxidative stress markers and biochemical parameters in rats. Methods- Rats were subjected for short (21 days) and long term (84 days) social isolation; the rats displayed an increase in depression on force swim test relative to control. Various markers of oxidative stress like lipid per oxidation (LPO), reduced glutathione (GSH), Supers oxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and biochemical parameters like SGOT, SGPT, and blood glucose were determined. Results- There was significant increase in the level of LPO and decrease in the levels of GSH, SOD and CAT after long term isolation. Biochemical parameters were significantly altered after social isolation. Conclusion- Increased oxidative stress in depression which may leads to alteration of biochemical parameters.

Keywords: Depression, Glucose, LPO, Oxidative stress.

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, F. Silveira, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Research background: Problems related to the occupational health and decreasing level of safety occur commonly in the construction industry. Important factor in the occupational safety in construction industry is scaffold use. All scaffolds used in construction, renovation, and demolition shall be erected, dismantled and maintained in accordance with safety procedure. Increasing demand for new construction projects unfortunately still is linked to high level of occupational accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to implement concrete actions while dealing with scaffolds and risk assessment in construction industry, the way on doing assessment and liability of assessment is critical for both construction workers and regulatory framework. Unfortunately, professionals, who tend to rely heavily on their own experience and knowledge when taking decisions regarding risk assessment, may show lack of reliability in checking the results of decisions taken. Purpose of the article: The aim was to indicate crucial parameters that could be modeling with Risk Assessment Model (RAM) use for improving both building enterprise productivity and/or developing potential and safety climate. The developed RAM could be a benefit for predicting high-risk construction activities and thus preventing accidents occurred based on a set of historical accident data. Methodology/Methods: A RAM has been developed for assessing risk levels as various construction process stages with various work trades impacting different spheres of enterprise activity. This project includes research carried out by teams of researchers on over 60 construction sites in Poland and Portugal, under which over 450 individual research cycles were carried out. The conducted research trials included variable conditions of employee exposure to harmful physical and chemical factors, variable levels of stress of employees and differences in behaviors and habits of staff. Genetic modeling tool has been used for developing the RAM. Findings and value added: Common types of trades, accidents, and accident causes have been explored, in addition to suitable risk assessment methods and criteria. We have found that the initial worker stress level is more direct predictor for developing the unsafe chain leading to the accident rather than the workload, or concentration of harmful factors at the workplace or even training frequency and management involvement.

Keywords: Civil engineering, occupational health, productivity, safety climate.

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Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab

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Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.

Keywords: Climate change, coastal vulnerability index, global warming, sea level rise.

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Authors: H. Abdizadeh, Y. Vahidshad

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The present paper discusses the selection of process parameters for obtaining optimal nanocrystallites size in the CuOZrO2 catalyst. There are some parameters changing the inorganic structure which have an influence on the role of hydrolysis and condensation reaction. A statistical design test method is implemented in order to optimize the experimental conditions of CuO-ZrO2 nanoparticles preparation. This method is applied for the experiments and L16 orthogonal array standard. The crystallites size is considered as an index. This index will be used for the analysis in the condition where the parameters vary. The effect of pH, H2O/ precursor molar ratio (R), time and temperature of calcination, chelating agent and alcohol volume are particularity investigated among all other parameters. In accordance with the results of Taguchi, it is found that temperature has the greatest impact on the particle size. The pH and H2O/ precursor molar ratio have low influences as compared with temperature. The alcohol volume as well as the time has almost no effect as compared with all other parameters. Temperature also has an influence on the morphology and amorphous structure of zirconia. The optimal conditions are determined by using Taguchi method. The nanocatalyst is studied by DTA-TG, XRD, EDS, SEM and TEM. The results of this research indicate that it is possible to vary the structure, morphology and properties of the sol-gel by controlling the above-mentioned parameters.

Keywords: CuO-ZrO2 Nanoparticles, Sol-gel, Taguchi method.

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Authors: Shuo-Li Hsu, Peng-Wei Gau, I-Lin Wu, Jyh-Horng Jeng

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For most image fusion algorithms separate relationship by pixels in the image and treat them more or less independently. In addition, they have to be adjusted different parameters in different time or weather. In this paper, we propose a region–based image fusion which combines aspects of feature and pixel-level fusion method to replace only by pixel. The basic idea is to segment far infrared image only and to add information of each region from segmented image to visual image respectively. Then we determine different fused parameters according different region. At last, we adopt artificial neural network to deal with the problems of different time or weather, because the relationship between fused parameters and image features are nonlinear. It render the fused parameters can be produce automatically according different states. The experimental results present the method we proposed indeed have good adaptive capacity with automatic determined fused parameters. And the architecture can be used for lots of applications.

Keywords: Image fusion, Region-based fusion, Segmentation, Neural network, Multi-sensor.

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Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

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The government and community have raised their awareness of the benefits of water reuse. Deforestation has a significant effect to climate change as it causes the drying out of the tropical rainforest and hence increases the chance of natural threaten the storage and supply of clean water. This paper focuses on discussion of the relationship of the natural water collection system, afforestation and country parks towards environmental sustainability and circular economy, with a case study of water conservation policy and strategy in Hong Kong and Singapore for further research.

Keywords: Afforestation, environmental sustainability, water conservation, circular economy, climate change.

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Authors: C. Phalakornkule, S. Polgumhang, W. Tongdaung

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This study presents an investigation of electrochemical variables and an application of the optimal parameters in operating a continuous upflow electrocoagulation reactor in removing dye. Direct red 23, which is azo-based, was used as a representative of direct dyes. First, a batch mode was employed to optimize the design parameters: electrode type, electrode distance, current density and electrocoagulation time. The optimal parameters were found to be iron anode, distance between electrodes of 8 mm and current density of 30 A·m-2 with contact time of 5 min. The performance of the continuous upflow reactor with these parameters was satisfactory, with >95% color removal and energy consumption in the order of 0.6-0.7 kWh·m-3.

Keywords: Decolorization, Direct Dye, Electrocoagulation, Textile Wastewater, Upflow Reactor.

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Authors: Mehmet Bozca

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Singular value decomposition based optimisation of geometric design parameters of a 5-speed gearbox is studied. During the optimisation, a four-degree-of freedom torsional vibration model of the pinion gear-wheel gear system is obtained and the minimum singular value of the transfer matrix is considered as the objective functions. The computational cost of the associated singular value problems is quite low for the objective function, because it is only necessary to compute the largest and smallest singular values (μmax and μmin) that can be achieved by using selective eigenvalue solvers; the other singular values are not needed. The design parameters are optimised under several constraints that include bending stress, contact stress and constant distance between gear centres. Thus, by optimising the geometric parameters of the gearbox such as, the module, number of teeth and face width it is possible to obtain a light-weight-gearbox structure. It is concluded that the all optimised geometric design parameters also satisfy all constraints.

Keywords: Singular value, optimisation, gearbox, torsional vibration.

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Authors: Saad M. Howladar, Mike Dennett

Abstract:

The effect of exogenous application; seed priming or foliar spraying of salicylic acid (SA) on Yecora Rojo and Paragon wheat cv. under NaCl-salinity. Gas exchange parameters, growth parameters, yield and yield components were reduced in both cultivars under salinity stress with foliar spray and soaking seeds. Exogenous application of SA through foliar spraying or seed soaking showed a slight increases or decreases with the application method or between cultivars. SA foliar spraying exhibited a slight improvement over SA seed soaking in most parameters, particularly in Paragon. Although, seed soaking was less effective than foliar spraying, it was a slightly better with Yecora Rojo in some parameters. However, the low SA concentration; 0.5mM tended to improve most parameters in both cultivars. From data of the experiment, it has been concluded that the effect of SA depends on cultivar genotype and SA concentration.

Keywords: Salinity, Salicylic acid, Growth parameters, yield components, Wheat cultivars.

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Authors: Ahmed A. Hassan

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The agriculture industry in Somalia employs a large portion of the country's workforce. Somalia has been known for its production and notable agriculture for many years, the key sector that fuels the country's economy. Due to decades of civil conflict, poor administration, neglect, and a string of natural calamities, the Somali agricultural industry has suffered significant damage. The irrigation systems in Juba and Shabelle, the two major rivers, have failed and deteriorated. Crop output has decreased because of ongoing drought, poor agricultural techniques, desertification, and the exodus of rural people to neighboring nations. With pandemic levels of hunger and malnutrition brought on by climate change, Somalia has become one of the world's most food-insecure countries. Additionally, there is strong evidence that climate change, particularly in Somalia and other East African nations, has exacerbated civil wars across Africa. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation, which results in drier and warmer weather in tropical regions, may have contributed to numerous civil wars. Additionally, an increase in temperature is believed to raise the risk of internal armed conflict in sub-Saharan African nations. This paper examines Somalia's present extension programs, lists the challenges the nation's agricultural industry faces, and discusses the effects of climate change. Improvement measures are advised based on the analysis presented in the paper. This article's major goals are to highlight the serious challenges that Somali farmers face and to offer potential solutions for achieving sustainable agriculture and food security through the worst of climate change. Farmers, legislators, decision-makers, and academics may find the material in this article useful in developing credible plans, and policies, and in establishing research and extension programs. With improved extension systems, management, encouraging public investments, and an enabling climate, Somalia's agricultural industry can increase its resilience, the quality of life for its population, and the safety and added value of its goods. Offshore and coastal fisheries can contribute more to sector growth and return to and surpass their amazing pre-war output and export levels.

Keywords: Sustainable agriculture, innovation, land use, climate change, farm management, drought management, resilience, agri-business, agri-extension, farmer field schools, agricultural development.

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Authors: Rafid Saeed Abdulrazak Alshkaki

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In this paper, zero-one inflated negative binomial distribution is considered, along with some of its structural properties, then its parameters were estimated using the method of moments. It is found that the method of moments to estimate the parameters of the zero-one inflated negative binomial models is not a proper method and may give incorrect conclusions.

Keywords: Zero one inflated models, negative binomial distribution, moments estimator, non-negative integer sampling.

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Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: Roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement.

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Authors: B. Robertson, K. Hall

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The study of the geometric shape of the plunging wave enclosed vortices as a possible indicator for the breaking intensity of ocean waves has been ongoing for almost 50 years with limited success. This paper investigates the validity of using the vortex ratio and vortex angle as methods of predicting breaking intensity. Previously published works on vortex parameters, based on regular wave flume results or solitary wave theory, present contradictory results and conclusions. Through the first complete analysis of field collected irregular wave breaking vortex parameters it is illustrated that the vortex ratio and vortex angle cannot be accurately predicted using standard breaking wave characteristics and hence are not suggested as a possible indicator for breaking intensity.

Keywords: Breaking Wave Measurement, Wave Vortex Parameters, Analytical Techniques, Ocean Remote Sensing.

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Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Chongquan Zhong

Abstract:

Energy consumption data, in particular those involving public buildings, are impacted by many factors: the building structure, climate/environmental parameters, construction, system operating condition, and user behavior patterns. Traditional methods for data analysis are insufficient. This paper delves into the data mining technology to determine its application in the analysis of building energy consumption data including energy consumption prediction, fault diagnosis, and optimal operation. Recent literature are reviewed and summarized, the problems faced by data mining technology in the area of energy consumption data analysis are enumerated, and research points for future studies are given.

Keywords: Data mining, data analysis, prediction, optimization, building operational performance.

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