Search results for: MOV - protected series capacitors
873 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Financial Trading using Intraday Seasonality Observation Model
Authors: A. Kablan
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The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3400872 Unscented Grid Filtering and Smoothing for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis
Authors: Nikolay Nikolaev, Evgueni Smirnov
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This paper develops an unscented grid-based filter and a smoother for accurate nonlinear modeling and analysis of time series. The filter uses unscented deterministic sampling during both the time and measurement updating phases, to approximate directly the distributions of the latent state variable. A complementary grid smoother is also made to enable computing of the likelihood. This helps us to formulate an expectation maximisation algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the state noise and the observation noise. Empirical investigations show that the proposed unscented grid filter/smoother compares favourably to other similar filters on nonlinear estimation tasks. Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1333871 Implementation Issues of Industrial PID Controller and Their Remedies
Authors: C. B. Vishwakarma
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We elaborated the parallel and series Proportional, Integral and Derivative (PID) controllers, which are being used in industries. Various issues, which are very often faced by control engineers while designing the PID controllers for industrial systems are described. The effect of measurement noise on the actuator due to derivative term of a PID controller has been explained in detail. Similarly, proportional kick, derivative kick, saturation tendency of the actuator and reverse phenomena of an industrial process have been summarized. Moreover, we meticulously explained the remedies of the all issues of the parallel industrial PID controller.
Keywords: Band-width limited derivative control, derivative kick, proportional kick, reverse acting controller, series PID controller.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 132870 Using Game Engines in Lightning Shielding: The Application of the Rolling Spheres Method on Virtual As-Built Power Substations
Authors: Yuri A. Gruber, Matheus Rosendo, Ulisses G. A. Casemiro, Klaus de Geus, Rafael T. Bee
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Lightning strikes can cause severe negative impacts to the electrical sector causing direct damage to equipment as well as shutdowns, especially when occurring in power substations. In order to mitigate this problem, a meticulous planning of the power substation protection system is of vital importance. A critical part of this is the distribution of shielding wires through the substation, which creates a 3D imaginary protection mesh similar to a circus tarpaulin. Equipment enclosed in the volume defined by that 3D mesh is considered protected against lightning strikes. The use of traditional methods of longitudinal cutting analysis based on 2D CAD tools makes the process laborious and the results obtained may not guarantee satisfactory protection of electrical equipment. This work describes the application of a Game Engine to the problem of lightning protection of power substations providing the visualization of the 3D protection mesh, the amount of protected components and the highlight of equipment which remain unprotected. In addition, aspects regarding the implementation and the advantages of approaching the problem using Unreal® Engine 4 are described. In order to validate results, a comparison with traditional 2D methods is applied to the same case study to which the proposed technique has been applied. Finally, a comparative study involving different levels of protection using the technique developed in this work is presented, showing that modern game engines can be a powerful accessory for simulations in several areas of engineering.
Keywords: Game engine, rolling spheres method, substation protection, UE4, Unreal® Engine 4.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1246869 Evidence Theory Enabled Quickest Change Detection Using Big Time-Series Data from Internet of Things
Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker
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Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, KL divergence, quickest change detection, time series data.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 995868 Statistical Computational of Volatility in Financial Time Series Data
Authors: S. Al Wadi, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Samsul Ariffin Abdul Karim
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It is well known that during the developments in the economic sector and through the financial crises occur everywhere in the whole world, volatility measurement is the most important concept in financial time series. Therefore in this paper we discuss the volatility for Amman stocks market (Jordan) for certain period of time. Since wavelet transform is one of the most famous filtering methods and grows up very quickly in the last decade, we compare this method with the traditional technique, Fast Fourier transform to decide the best method for analyzing the volatility. The comparison will be done on some of the statistical properties by using Matlab program.Keywords: Fast Fourier transforms, Haar wavelet transform, Matlab (Wavelet tools), stocks market, Volatility.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2320867 Development of Quasi-Two-Dimensional Nb2O5 for Functional Electrodes of Advanced Electrochemical Systems
Authors: S. Zhuiykov, E. Kats
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In recent times there has been a growing interest in the development of quasi-two-dimensional niobium pentoxide (Nb2O5) as a semiconductor for the potential electronic applications such as capacitors, filtration, dye-sensitised solar cells and gas sensing platforms. Therefore once the purpose is established, Nb2O5 can be prepared in a number of nano- and sub-micron-structural morphologies that include rods, wires, belts and tubes. In this study films of Nb2O5 were prepared on gold plated silicon substrate using spin-coating technique and subsequently by mechanical exfoliation. The reason this method was employed was to achieve layers of less than 15nm in thickness. The sintering temperature of the specimen was 800oC. The morphology and structural characteristics of the films were analyzed by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), Raman Spectroscopy, X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS).Keywords: Mechanical exfoliation, niobium pentoxide, quazitwo- dimensional, semiconductor, sol-gel, spin-coating, two dimensional semiconductors.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2398866 Mechanical Equation of State in an Al-Li Alloy
Authors: Jung-Ho Moon, Tae Kwon Ha
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Existence of plastic equation of state has been investigated by performing a series of load relaxation tests at various temperatures using an Al-Li alloy. A plastic equation of state is first developed from a simple kinetics consideration for a mechanical activation process of a leading dislocation piled up against grain boundaries. A series of load relaxation test has been conducted at temperatures ranging from 200 to 530oC to obtain the stress-strain rate curves. A plastic equation of state has been derived from a simple consideration of dislocation kinetics and confirmed by experimental results.
Keywords: Plastic equation of state, Dislocation kinetics, Load relaxation test, Al-Li alloy, Microstructure.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1803865 Power Integrity Analysis of Power Delivery System in High Speed Digital FPGA Board
Authors: Anil Kumar Pandey
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Power plane noise is the most significant source of signal integrity (SI) issues in a high-speed digital design. In this paper, power integrity (PI) analysis of multiple power planes in a power delivery system of a 12-layer high-speed FPGA board is presented. All 10 power planes of HSD board are analyzed separately by using 3D Electromagnetic based PI solver, then the transient simulation is performed on combined PI data of all planes along with voltage regulator modules (VRMs) and 70 current drawing chips to get the board level power noise coupling on different high-speed signals. De-coupling capacitors are placed between power planes and ground to reduce power noise coupling with signals.
Keywords: Channel simulation, electromagnetic simulation, power-aware signal integrity analysis, power integrity, PIPro.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2292864 Analysis of Linked in Series Servers with Blocking, Priority Feedback Service and Threshold Policy
Authors: Walenty Oniszczuk
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The use of buffer thresholds, blocking and adequate service strategies are well-known techniques for computer networks traffic congestion control. This motivates the study of series queues with blocking, feedback (service under Head of Line (HoL) priority discipline) and finite capacity buffers with thresholds. In this paper, the external traffic is modelled using the Poisson process and the service times have been modelled using the exponential distribution. We consider a three-station network with two finite buffers, for which a set of thresholds (tm1 and tm2) is defined. This computer network behaves as follows. A task, which finishes its service at station B, gets sent back to station A for re-processing with probability o. When the number of tasks in the second buffer exceeds a threshold tm2 and the number of task in the first buffer is less than tm1, the fed back task is served under HoL priority discipline. In opposite case, for fed backed tasks, “no two priority services in succession" procedure (preventing a possible overflow in the first buffer) is applied. Using an open Markovian queuing schema with blocking, priority feedback service and thresholds, a closed form cost-effective analytical solution is obtained. The model of servers linked in series is very accurate. It is derived directly from a twodimensional state graph and a set of steady-state equations, followed by calculations of main measures of effectiveness. Consequently, efficient expressions of the low computational cost are determined. Based on numerical experiments and collected results we conclude that the proposed model with blocking, feedback and thresholds can provide accurate performance estimates of linked in series networks.Keywords: Blocking, Congestion control, Feedback, Markov chains, Performance evaluation, Threshold-base networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1296863 Design of a Three Phase Active Power Filter with Sliding Mode Control and Energy Feedback
Authors: M. Nayeripour, T. Niknam
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Nonlinear and unbalance loads in three phase networks create harmonics and losses. Active and passive filters are used for elimination or reduction of these effects. Passive filters have some limitations. For example, they are designed only for a specific frequency and they may cause to resonance in the network at the point of common coupling. The other drawback of a passive filter is that the sizes of required elements are normally large. The active filter can improve some of limitations of passive filter for example; they can eliminate more than one harmonic and don't cause resonance in the network. In this paper inverter analysis have been done simultaneously in three phase and the RL impedance of the line have been considered. A sliding mode control based on energy feedback of capacitors is employed in the design with this method, the dynamic speed of the filter is improved effectively and harmonics and load unbalance is compensating quickly.Keywords: Shunt active filter, harmonic, inverter, sliding mode control, energy feedback.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1850862 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model
Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh
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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).
Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1047861 Free Flapping Vibration of Rotating Inclined Euler Beams
Authors: Chih-Ling Huang, Wen-Yi Lin, Kuo-Mo Hsiao
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A method based on the power series solution is proposed to solve the natural frequency of flapping vibration for the rotating inclined Euler beam with constant angular velocity. The vibration of the rotating beam is measured from the position of the corresponding steady state axial deformation. In this paper the governing equations for linear vibration of a rotating Euler beam are derived by the d'Alembert principle, the virtual work principle and the consistent linearization of the fully geometrically nonlinear beam theory in a rotating coordinate system. The governing equation for flapping vibration of the rotating inclined Euler beam is linear ordinary differential equation with variable coefficients and is solved by a power series with four independent coefficients. Substituting the power series solution into the corresponding boundary conditions at two end nodes of the rotating beam, a set of homogeneous equations can be obtained. The natural frequencies may be determined by solving the homogeneous equations using the bisection method. Numerical examples are studied to investigate the effect of inclination angle on the natural frequency of flapping vibration for rotating inclined Euler beams with different angular velocity and slenderness ratio.Keywords: Flapping vibration, Inclination angle, Natural frequency, Rotating beam.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2192860 An Engineering Approach to Forecast Volatility of Financial Indices
Authors: Irwin Ma, Tony Wong, Thiagas Sankar
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By systematically applying different engineering methods, difficult financial problems become approachable. Using a combination of theory and techniques such as wavelet transform, time series data mining, Markov chain based discrete stochastic optimization, and evolutionary algorithms, this work formulated a strategy to characterize and forecast non-linear time series. It attempted to extract typical features from the volatility data sets of S&P100 and S&P500 indices that include abrupt drops, jumps and other non-linearity. As a result, accuracy of forecasting has reached an average of over 75% surpassing any other publicly available results on the forecast of any financial index.Keywords: Discrete stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, genetic programming, volatility forecast
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1632859 Thermal Fatigue Behavior of 400 Series Ferritic Stainless Steels
Authors: Seok Hong Min, Tae Kwon Ha
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In this study, thermal fatigue properties of 400 series ferritic stainless steels have been evaluated in the temperature ranges of 200-800oC and 200-900oC. Systematic methods for control of temperatures within the predetermined range and measurement of load applied to specimens as a function of temperature during thermal cycles have been established. Thermal fatigue tests were conducted under fully constrained condition, where both ends of specimens were completely fixed. It has been revealed that load relaxation behavior at the temperatures of thermal cycle was closely related with the thermal fatigue property. Thermal fatigue resistance of 430J1L stainless steel is found to be superior to the other steels.Keywords: Ferritic stainless steel, automotive exhaust, thermal fatigue, microstructure, load relaxation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2134858 Recent Trends in Nonlinear Methods of HRV Analysis: A Review
Authors: Ramesh K. Sunkaria
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The linear methods of heart rate variability analysis such as non-parametric (e.g. fast Fourier transform analysis) and parametric methods (e.g. autoregressive modeling) has become an established non-invasive tool for marking the cardiac health, but their sensitivity and specificity were found to be lower than expected with positive predictive value <30%. This may be due to considering the RR-interval series as stationary and re-sampling them prior to their use for analysis, whereas actually it is not. This paper reviews the non-linear methods of HRV analysis such as correlation dimension, largest Lyupnov exponent, power law slope, fractal analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis, complexity measure etc. which are currently becoming popular as these uses the actual RR-interval series. These methods are expected to highly accurate cardiac health prognosis.Keywords: chaos, nonlinear dynamics, sample entropy, approximate entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2353857 A Modified Laplace Decomposition Algorithm Solution for Blasius’ Boundary Layer Equation of the Flat Plate in a Uniform Stream
Authors: M. A. Koroma, Z. Chuangyi, A. F., Kamara, A. M. H. Conteh
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In this work, we apply the Modified Laplace decomposition algorithm in finding a numerical solution of Blasius’ boundary layer equation for the flat plate in a uniform stream. The series solution is found by first applying the Laplace transform to the differential equation and then decomposing the nonlinear term by the use of Adomian polynomials. The resulting series, which is exactly the same as that obtained by Weyl 1942a, was expressed as a rational function by the use of diagonal padé approximant.
Keywords: Modified Laplace decomposition algorithm, Boundary layer equation, Padé approximant, Numerical solution.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2377856 Temporal Signal Processing by Inference Bayesian Approach for Detection of Abrupt Variation of Statistical Characteristics of Noisy Signals
Authors: Farhad Asadi, Hossein Sadati
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In fields such as neuroscience and especially in cognition modeling of mental processes, uncertainty processing in temporal zone of signal is vital. In this paper, Bayesian online inferences in estimation of change-points location in signal are constructed. This method separated the observed signal into independent series and studies the change and variation of the regime of data locally with related statistical characteristics. We give conditions on simulations of the method when the data characteristics of signals vary, and provide empirical evidence to show the performance of method. It is verified that correlation between series around the change point location and its characteristics such as Signal to Noise Ratios and mean value of signal has important factor on fluctuating in finding proper location of change point. And one of the main contributions of this study is related to representing of these influences of signal statistical characteristics for finding abrupt variation in signal. There are two different structures for simulations which in first case one abrupt change in temporal section of signal is considered with variable position and secondly multiple variations are considered. Finally, influence of statistical characteristic for changing the location of change point is explained in details in simulation results with different artificial signals.
Keywords: Time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 568855 Reliability Analysis of k-out-of-n : G System Using Triangular Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers
Authors: Tanuj Kumar, Rakesh Kumar Bajaj
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In the present paper, we analyze the vague reliability of k-out-of-n : G system (particularly, series and parallel system) with independent and non-identically distributed components, where the reliability of the components are unknown. The reliability of each component has been estimated using statistical confidence interval approach. Then we converted these statistical confidence interval into triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Based on these triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, the reliability of the k-out-of-n : G system has been calculated. Further, in order to implement the proposed methodology and to analyze the results of k-out-of-n : G system, a numerical example has been provided.
Keywords: Vague set, vague reliability, triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number, k-out-of-n : G system, series and parallel system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2987854 Third Order Current-mode Quadrature Sinusoidal Oscillator with High Output Impedances
Authors: Kritphon Phanruttanachai, Winai Jaikla
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This article presents a current-mode quadrature oscillator using differential different current conveyor (DDCC) and voltage differencing transconductance amplifier (VDTA) as active elements. The proposed circuit is realized fro m a non-inverting lossless integrator and an inverting second order low-pass filter. The oscillation condition and oscillation frequency can be electronically/orthogonally controlled via input bias currents. The circuit description is very simple, consisting of merely 1 DDCC, 1 VDTA, 1 grounded resistor and 3 grounded capacitors. Using only grounded elements, the proposed circuit is then suitable for IC architecture. The proposed oscillator has high output impedance which is easy to cascade or dive the external load without the buffer devices. The PSPICE simulation results are depicted, and the given results agree well with the theoretical anticipation. The power consumption is approximately 1.76mW at ±1.25V supply voltages.Keywords: Current-mode, oscillator, integrated circuit, DDCC, VDTA
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2409853 Combined Source and Channel Coding for Image Transmission Using Enhanced Turbo Codes in AWGN and Rayleigh Channel
Authors: N. S. Pradeep, M. Balasingh Moses, V. Aarthi
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Any signal transmitted over a channel is corrupted by noise and interference. A host of channel coding techniques has been proposed to alleviate the effect of such noise and interference. Among these Turbo codes are recommended, because of increased capacity at higher transmission rates and superior performance over convolutional codes. The multimedia elements which are associated with ample amount of data are best protected by Turbo codes. Turbo decoder employs Maximum A-posteriori Probability (MAP) and Soft Output Viterbi Decoding (SOVA) algorithms. Conventional Turbo coded systems employ Equal Error Protection (EEP) in which the protection of all the data in an information message is uniform. Some applications involve Unequal Error Protection (UEP) in which the level of protection is higher for important information bits than that of other bits. In this work, enhancement to the traditional Log MAP decoding algorithm is being done by using optimized scaling factors for both the decoders. The error correcting performance in presence of UEP in Additive White Gaussian Noise channel (AWGN) and Rayleigh fading are analyzed for the transmission of image with Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) as source coding technique. This paper compares the performance of log MAP, Modified log MAP (MlogMAP) and Enhanced log MAP (ElogMAP) algorithms used for image transmission. The MlogMAP algorithm is found to be best for lower Eb/N0 values but for higher Eb/N0 ElogMAP performs better with optimized scaling factors. The performance comparison of AWGN with fading channel indicates the robustness of the proposed algorithm. According to the performance of three different message classes, class3 would be more protected than other two classes. From the performance analysis, it is observed that ElogMAP algorithm with UEP is best for transmission of an image compared to Log MAP and MlogMAP decoding algorithms.Keywords: AWGN, BER, DCT, Fading, MAP, UEP.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1681852 A High Order Theory for Functionally Graded Shell
Authors: V. V. Zozulya
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New theory for functionally graded (FG) shell based on expansion of the equations of elasticity for functionally graded materials (GFMs) into Legendre polynomials series has been developed. Stress and strain tensors, vectors of displacements, traction and body forces have been expanded into Legendre polynomials series in a thickness coordinate. In the same way functions that describe functionally graded relations has been also expanded. Thereby all equations of elasticity including Hook-s law have been transformed to corresponding equations for Fourier coefficients. Then system of differential equations in term of displacements and boundary conditions for Fourier coefficients has been obtained. Cases of the first and second approximations have been considered in more details. For obtained boundary-value problems solution finite element (FE) has been used of Numerical calculations have been done with Comsol Multiphysics and Matlab.
Keywords: Shell, FEM, FGM, legendre polynomial.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1596851 An efficient Activity Network Reduction Algorithm based on the Label Correcting Tracing Algorithm
Authors: Weng Ming Chu
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When faced with stochastic networks with an uncertain duration for their activities, the securing of network completion time becomes problematical, not only because of the non-identical pdf of duration for each node, but also because of the interdependence of network paths. As evidenced by Adlakha & Kulkarni [1], many methods and algorithms have been put forward in attempt to resolve this issue, but most have encountered this same large-size network problem. Therefore, in this research, we focus on network reduction through a Series/Parallel combined mechanism. Our suggested algorithm, named the Activity Network Reduction Algorithm (ANRA), can efficiently transfer a large-size network into an S/P Irreducible Network (SPIN). SPIN can enhance stochastic network analysis, as well as serve as the judgment of symmetry for the Graph Theory.Keywords: Series/Parallel network, Stochastic network, Network reduction, Interdictive Graph, Complexity Index.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1383850 Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing
Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor
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The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.Keywords: Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Model selection, Monthly waste flow, Periodicity, Periodic autoregressive model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1649849 Forecasting Rainfall in Thailand: A Case Study of Nakhon Ratchasima Province
Authors: N. Sopipan
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In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.
Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2685848 Optimal Compensation of Reactive Power in the Restructured Distribution Network
Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Mohsen. Saniei, S. S. Mortazavi, A. Saeedian
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In this paper optimal capacitor placement problem has been formulated in a restructured distribution network. In this scenario the distribution network operator can consider reactive energy also as a service that can be sold to transmission system. Thus search for optimal location, size and number of capacitor banks with the objective of loss reduction, maximum income from selling reactive energy to transmission system and return on investment for capacitors, has been performed. Results is influenced with economic value of reactive energy, therefore problem has been solved for various amounts of it. The implemented optimization technique is genetic algorithm. For any value of reactive power economic value, when reverse of investment index increase and change from zero or negative values to positive values, the threshold value of selling reactive power has been obtained. This increasing price of economic parameter is reasonable until the network losses is less than loss before compensation.Keywords: capacitor placement, deregulated electric market, distribution network optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2127847 Effects of Electric Potential on Thermo-Mechanical Behavior of Functionally Graded Piezoelectric Hollow Cylinder under Non-Axisymmetric Loads
Authors: Amir Atrian, Javad Jafari Fesharaki, Gh. Hossein Majzoobi, Mahsa Sheidaee
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The analytical solution of functionally graded piezoelectric hollow cylinder which is under radial electric potential and non-axisymmetric thermo-mechanical loads, are presented in this paper. Using complex Fourier series and estimation of power law for variations of material characterizations through the thickness, the electro thermo mechanical behavior of the FGPM cylinder is obtained. The stress and displacement distributions and the effect of electric potential field on the cylinder behavior are also presented and some applicable results are offered at the end of the paper.Keywords: Analytical, FGM, Fourier series, Non-axisymmetric, Piezoelectric, Thermo-elasticity
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1842846 The Improvement of 28-day Compressive Strength of Self Compacting Concrete Made by Different Percentages of Recycled Concrete Aggregates using Nano-Silica
Authors: S. Salkhordeh, P. Golbazi, H. Amini
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In this study two series of self compacting concrete mixtures were prepared with 100% coarse recycled concrete aggregates and different percentages of 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% fine recycled concrete aggregates. In series I and II the water to binder ratios were 0.50 and 0.45, respectively. The cement content was kept 350 3 m kg for those mixtures that don't have any Nano-Silica. To improve the compressive strength of samples, Nano- Silica replaced with 10% of cement weight in concrete mixtures. By doing the tests, the results showed that, adding Nano-silica to the samples with less percentage of fine recycled concrete aggregates, lead to more increase on the compressive strength.Keywords: Compressive Strength, Nano-Silica, RecycledConcrete Aggregates, Self Compacting Concrete.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1957845 Development of Integrated GIS Interface for Characteristics of Regional Daily Flow
Authors: Ju Young Lee, Jung-Seok Yang, Jaeyoung Choi
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The purpose of this paper primarily intends to develop GIS interface for estimating sequences of stream-flows at ungauged stations based on known flows at gauged stations. The integrated GIS interface is composed of three major steps. The first, precipitation characteristics using statistical analysis is the procedure for making multiple linear regression equation to get the long term mean daily flow at ungauged stations. The independent variables in regression equation are mean daily flow and drainage area. Traditionally, mean flow data are generated by using Thissen polygon method. However, method for obtaining mean flow data can be selected by user such as Kriging, IDW (Inverse Distance Weighted), Spline methods as well as other traditional methods. At the second, flow duration curve (FDC) is computing at unguaged station by FDCs in gauged stations. Finally, the mean annual daily flow is computed by spatial interpolation algorithm. The third step is to obtain watershed/topographic characteristics. They are the most important factors which govern stream-flows. In summary, the simulated daily flow time series are compared with observed times series. The results using integrated GIS interface are closely similar and are well fitted each other. Also, the relationship between the topographic/watershed characteristics and stream flow time series is highly correlated.Keywords: Integrated GIS interface, spatial interpolation algorithm, FDC.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1517844 Fast and Accuracy Control Chart Pattern Recognition using a New cluster-k-Nearest Neighbor
Authors: Samir Brahim Belhaouari
Abstract:
By taking advantage of both k-NN which is highly accurate and K-means cluster which is able to reduce the time of classification, we can introduce Cluster-k-Nearest Neighbor as "variable k"-NN dealing with the centroid or mean point of all subclasses generated by clustering algorithm. In general the algorithm of K-means cluster is not stable, in term of accuracy, for that reason we develop another algorithm for clustering our space which gives a higher accuracy than K-means cluster, less subclass number, stability and bounded time of classification with respect to the variable data size. We find between 96% and 99.7 % of accuracy in the lassification of 6 different types of Time series by using K-means cluster algorithm and we find 99.7% by using the new clustering algorithm.Keywords: Pattern recognition, Time series, k-Nearest Neighbor, k-means cluster, Gaussian Mixture Model, Classification
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