Search results for: Earthquake forecast

Authors: M. Elassaly

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Damage status of RC buildings is greatly influenced by the characteristics of the imposed ground motion. Peak Ground Acceleration and frequency contents are considered the main two factors that affect ground motion characteristics; hence, affecting the seismic response of RC structures and consequently their damage state. A detailed investigation on the combined effects of these two factors on damage assessment of RC buildings is carried out. Twenty one earthquake records are analyzed and arranged into three groups, according to their frequency contents. These records are used in an investigation to define the expected damage state that would be attained by RC buildings, if subjected to varying ground motion characteristics. The damage assessment is conducted through examining drift ratios and damage indices of the overall structure and the significant structural components of RC building. Base and story shear of RC building model, are also investigated, for cases when the model is subjected to the chosen twenty one earthquake records. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed on a 2-dimensional model of a 12-story RC building.

Keywords: Damage, frequency content, ground motion, PGA, RC building, seismic.

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Authors: S. Dorbani, M. Badaoui, D. Benouar

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the building fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings of (6, 9, and 12-storey), with different floor plans: Symmetric, mono-symmetric, and unsymmetric. These structures are erected at different epicentral distances. Using the Boumerdes, Algeria (2003) earthquake data, we focused primarily on the establishment of the deterministic formulation linking the base shear force to two parameters: The first one is the fundamental period that represents the numerical fingerprint of the structure, and the second one is the epicentral distance used to represent the impact of the earthquake on this force. In a second step, with a view to highlight the effect of uncertainty in these parameters on the analyzed response, these parameters are modeled as random variables with a log-normal distribution. The variability of the coefficients of variation of the chosen uncertain parameters, on the statistics on the seismic base shear force, showed that the effect of uncertainty on fundamental period on this force statistics is low compared to the epicentral distance uncertainty influence.

Keywords: Base shear force, fundamental period, epicentral distance, uncertainty, lognormal variable, statistics.

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Authors: Gökhan Yüksel, Serdar Akça, İlker Kalkan

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The present study is an attempt to demonstrate the significant levels of contribution of the moment-resisting beam-column connections with side plates to the earthquake behavior of special steel moment frames. To this end, the moment-curvature relationships of a regular beam-column connection and its SidePlate counterpart were determined with the help of finite element analyses. The connection stiffness and deformability values from these finite element analyses were used in the linear time-history analyses of an example structural steel frame under three different seismic excitations. The top-story lateral drift, base shear, and overturning moment values in two orthogonal directions were obtained from these time-history analyses and compared to each other. The results revealed the improvements in the system response with the use of SidePlate connections. The paper ends with crucial recommendations for the plan and design of further studies on this very topic.

Keywords: Seismic detailing, special moment frame, steel structures, beam-column connection, earthquake-resistant design.

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Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sohrab Nemati, Ehsan Khojastehfar, Sadegh Balaghi

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In the present research, various formulations of wavelet transform are applied on acceleration time history of earthquake. The mentioned transforms decompose the strong ground motion into low and high frequency parts. Since the high frequency portion of strong ground motion has a minor effect on dynamic response of structures, the structure is excited by low frequency part. Consequently, the seismic response of structure is predicted consuming one half of computational time, comparing with conventional time history analysis. Towards reducing the computational effort needed in seismic optimization of structure, seismic optimization of a shear frame structure is conducted by applying various forms of mentioned transformation through genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Time history analysis, wavelet transform, optimization, earthquake.

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Authors: I. Grigoratos, R. Monteiro

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Regions with a significant percentage of non-seismically designed buildings and reduced urban planning are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In this context, the project ‘Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria’ (ITERATE) aims at seismic risk mitigation in Algeria. Past earthquakes in North Algeria caused extensive damages, e.g. the El Asnam 1980 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 and Boumerdes 2003 Mw 6.8 earthquakes. This paper will address a number of proposed developments and considerations made towards a further improvement of the component of seismic hazard. In specific, an updated earthquake catalog (until year 2018) is compiled, and new conversion equations to moment magnitude are introduced. Furthermore, a network-based method for the estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the minimum magnitude of completeness is applied. We found relatively large values for M_c, due to the sparse network, and a nonlinear trend between M_w and body wave (m_b) or local magnitude (M_L), which are the most common scales reported in the region. Lastly, the resulting b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution is sensitive to the declustering method.

Keywords: Conversion equation, magnitude of completeness, seismic events, seismic hazard.

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Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab

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Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.

Keywords: Climate change, coastal vulnerability index, global warming, sea level rise.

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Authors: Aleksandar Zhelyazkov, Daniele Zonta, Helmut Wenzel, Peter Furtner

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In the current research structural health monitoring is considered for addressing the critical issue of post-earthquake damage detection. A non-standard approach for damage detection via acoustic emission is presented - acoustic emissions are monitored in the low frequency range (up to 120 Hz). Such emissions are termed high-frequency transients. Further a damage indicator defined as the Time-Ratio Damage Indicator is introduced. The indicator relies on time-instance measurements of damage initiation and deformation peaks. Based on the time-instance measurements a procedure for estimation of the maximum drift ratio is proposed. Monitoring data is used from a shaking-table test of a full-scale reinforced concrete bridge pier. Damage of the experimental column is successfully detected and the proposed damage indicator is calculated.

Keywords: Acoustic emission, Damage detection, Shaking table test, Structural health monitoring, High-frequency transients.

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Authors: M. Hakan Arslan, I. Hakkı Erkan

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Overstrength factor is an important parameter of load reduction factor. In this research, the overstrength factor (Ω) of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings and the parameters of Ω in TEC-2016 draft version have been explored. For this aim, 48 RC buildings have been modeled according to the current seismic code TEC-2007 and Turkish Building Code-500-2000 criteria. After modelling step, nonlinear static pushover analyses have been applied to these buildings by using TEC-2007 Section 7. After the nonlinear pushover analyses, capacity curves (lateral load-lateral top displacement curves) have been plotted for 48 RC buildings. Using capacity curves, overstrength factors (Ω) have been derived for each building. The obtained overstrength factor (Ω) values have been compared with TEC-2016 values for related building types, and the results have been interpreted. According to the obtained values from the study, overstrength factor (Ω) given in TEC-2016 draft code is found quite suitable.

Keywords: Reinforced concrete buildings, overstrength factor, earthquake, static pushover analysis.

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Authors: L. Khan mohammadi, J. Vaseghi Amiri, B. Navayi neya , M. Davoodi

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Because of the reservoir effect, dynamic analysis of concrete dams is more involved than other common structures. This problem is mostly sourced by the differences between reservoir water, dam body and foundation material behaviors. To account for the reservoir effect in dynamic analysis of concrete gravity dams, two methods are generally employed. Eulerian method in reservoir modeling gives rise to a set of coupled equations, whereas in Lagrangian method, the same equations for dam and foundation structure are used. The Purpose of this paper is to evaluate and study possible advantages and disadvantages of both methods. Specifically, application of the above methods in the analysis of dam-foundationreservoir systems is leveraged to calculate the hydrodynamic pressure on dam faces. Within the frame work of dam- foundationreservoir systems, dam displacement under earthquake for various dimensions and characteristics are also studied. The results of both Lagrangian and Eulerian methods in effects of loading frequency, boundary condition and foundation elasticity modulus are quantitatively evaluated and compared. Our analyses show that each method has individual advantages and disadvantages. As such, in any particular case, one of the two methods may prove more suitable as presented in the results section of this study.

Keywords: Lagrangian method, Eulerian method, Earthquake, Concrete gravity dam

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Authors: Ahmet Kivanc Kutluca, Semahat Ozdemir

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Urban disaster risks and vulnerabilities are great problems for Turkey. The annual loss of life and property through disaster in the world-s major metropolitan areas is increasing. Urban concentrations of the poor and less-informed in environmentally fragile locations suffer the impact of disaster disproportionately. Gecekondu (squatter) developments will compound the inherent risks associated with high-density environments, in appropriate technologies, and inadequate infrastructure. On the other hand, there are many geological disadvantages such as sitting on top of active tectonic plate boundaries, and why having avalanche, flood, and landslide and drought prone areas in Turkey. However, this natural formation is inevitable; the only way to survive in such a harsh geography is to be aware of importance of these natural events and to take political and physical measures. The main aim of this research is to bring up the magnitude of natural hazard risks in Izmir built-up zone, not being taken into consideration adequately. Because the dimensions of the peril are not taken seriously enough, the natural hazard risks, which are commonly well known, are not considered important or they are being forgotten after some time passes. Within this research, the magnitude of natural hazard risks for Izmir is being presented in the scope of concrete and local researches over Izmir risky areas.

Keywords: Earthquake, Flood, Landslide, Natural Hazard Planning.

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Authors: Masoud Mahdavi

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The use of sloping lands is increasing due to the reduction of suitable lands for the construction of buildings. In the design and construction of buildings on sloping lands, the foundation has special loading conditions that require the designer and executor to use the slopped foundation. The creation of underground cavities, including urban and subway tunnels, sewers, urban facilities, etc., inside the ground, causes the behavior of the foundation to be unknown. In the present study, using Abacus software, a 45-degree stepped foundation on the ground is designed. The foundations are placed on the ground in a cohesive (no-hole) manner with circular cavities that show the effect of increasing the cross-sectional area of ​​the underground cavities on the foundation's performance. The Kobe earthquake struck the foundation and ground for two seconds. The underground cavities have a circular cross-sectional area with a radius of 5 m, which is located at a depth of 22.54 m above the ground. The results showed that as the number of underground cavities increased, von Mises stress (in the vertical direction) increased. With the increase in the number of underground cavities, the plastic strain on the ground has increased. Also, with the increase in the number of underground cavities, the change in location and speed in the foundation has increased.

Keywords: Stepped foundation, sloping ground, Kobe earthquake, Abaqus software, underground excavations.

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Authors: Mohsen Saleh Asheghabadi, Alireza Jafari Jebeli

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Increasing population growth requires more sustainable development of energy. This non-contaminated energy has an inexhaustible energy source. One of the vital parameters in such structures is the choice of foundation type. Suction caissons are now used extensively worldwide for offshore wind turbine. Considering the presence of a number of offshore wind farms in earthquake areas, the study of the seismic behavior of suction caisson is necessary for better design. In this paper, the results obtained from three suction caisson models with different diameter (D) and skirt length (L) in saturated sand were compared with centrifuge test results. All models are analyzed using 3D finite element (FE) method taking account of elasto-plastic Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model for soil which is available in the ABAQUS library. The earthquake load applied to the base of models with a maximum acceleration of 0.65g. The results showed that numerical method is in relative good agreement with centrifuge results. The settlement and rotation of foundation decrease by increasing the skirt length and foundation diameter. The sand soil outside the caisson is prone to liquefaction due to its low confinement.

Keywords: Liquefaction, suction caisson foundation, offshore wind turbine, numerical analysis, seismic behavior.

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Authors: G. Ghodrati Amiri, M. Khorasani, Razavian Ameri, M.Mohamadi Dehcheshmeh, S.Fathi

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Many studies have been conducted for derivation of attenuation relationships worldwide, however few relationships have been developed to use for the seismic region of Iranian plateau and only few of these studies have been conducted for derivation of attenuation relationships for parameters such as uniform duration. Uniform duration is the total time during which the acceleration is larger than a given threshold value (default is 5% of PGA). In this study, the database was same as that used previously by Ghodrati Amiri et al. (2007) with same correction methods for earthquake records in Iran. However in this study, records from earthquakes with MS< 4.0 were excluded from this database, each record has individually filtered afterward, and therefore the dataset has been expanded. These new set of attenuation relationships for Iran are derived based on tectonic conditions with soil classification into rock and soil. Earthquake parameters were chosen to be hypocentral distance and magnitude in order to make it easier to use the relationships for seismic hazard analysis. Tehran is the capital city of Iran wit ha large number of important structures. In this study, a probabilistic approach has been utilized for seismic hazard assessment of this city. The resulting uniform duration against return period diagrams are suggested to be used in any projects in the area.

Keywords: Attenuation Relationships, Iran, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, Tehran, Uniform Duration

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Authors: Iftikhar Ahmed Satti, Wan Ismail Wan Yusoff

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The structural interpretation of a part of eastern Potwar (Missa Keswal) has been carried out with available seismological, seismic and well data. Seismological data contains both the source parameters and fault plane solution (FPS) parameters and seismic data contains ten seismic lines that were re-interpreted by using well data. Structural interpretation depicts two broad types of fault sets namely, thrust and back thrust faults. These faults together give rise to pop up structures in the study area and also responsible for many structural traps and seismicity. Seismic interpretation includes time and depth contour maps of Chorgali Formation while seismological interpretation includes focal mechanism solution (FMS), depth, frequency, magnitude bar graphs and renewal of Seismotectonic map. The Focal Mechanism Solutions (FMS) that surrounds the study area are correlated with the different geological and structural maps of the area for the determination of the nature of subsurface faults. Results of structural interpretation from both seismic and seismological data show good correlation. It is hoped that the present work will help in better understanding of the variations in the subsurface structure and can be a useful tool for earthquake prediction, planning of oil field and reservoir monitoring.

Keywords: Focal mechanism solution (FMS), Fault plane solution (FPS), Reservoir monitoring, earthquake prediction.

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Authors: Hasan Taştan, Ayşen Ciravoğlu

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The rapid growth of the human population and the environmental degradation associated with increased consumption of resources raises concerns on sustainability. Social sustainability constitutes one of the three dimensions of sustainability together with environmental and economic dimensions. Even though there is not an agreement on what social sustainability consists of, it is a well known fact that it necessitates user participation. The fore, this study aims to observe and analyze the role of user participation on social sustainability. In this paper, the links between user participation and indicators of social sustainability have been searched. In order to achieve this, first of all a literature review on social sustainability has been done; accordingly, the information obtained from researches has been used in the evaluation of the projects conducted in the developing countries considering user participation. These examples are taken as role models with pros and cons for the development of the checklist for the evaluation of the case studies. Furthermore, a case study over the post earthquake residential settlements in Turkey have been conducted. The case study projects are selected considering different building scales (differing number of residential units), scale of the problem (post-earthquake settlements, rehabilitation of shanty dwellings) and the variety of users (differing socio-economic dimensions). Decisionmaking, design, building and usage processes of the selected projects and actors of these processes have been investigated in the context of social sustainability. The cases include: New Gourna Village by Hassan Fathy, Quinta Monroy dwelling units conducted in Chile by Alejandro Aravena and Beyköy and Beriköy projects in Turkey aiming to solve the problem of housing which have appeared after the earthquake happened in 1999 have been investigated. Results of the study possible links between social sustainability indicators and user participation and links between user participation and the peculiarities of place. Results are compared and discussed in order to find possible solutions to form social sustainability through user participation. Results show that social sustainability issues depend on communities' characteristics, socio-economic conditions and user profile but user participation has positive effects on some social sustainability indicators like user satisfaction, a sense of belonging and social stability.

Keywords: Housing projects, Residential areas, Social sustainability, User participation.

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Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, V. Avramea

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Planning for natural disasters and emergencies is something every school or educational institution must consider, regardless of its size or location. Preparedness is the key to save lives if a disaster strikes. School disaster management mirrors individual and family disaster prevention, and wider community disaster prevention efforts. This paper presents the usage of E-PreS System as a helpful, managerial tool during the school earthquake drill, in order to support schools in developing effective disaster and emergency plans specific to their local needs. The project comes up with a holistic methodology using real-time evaluation involving different categories of actors, districts, steps and metrics. The main outcomes of E-PreS project are the development of E-PreS web platform that host the needed data of school emergency planning; the development of E-PreS System; the implementation of disaster drills using E-PreS System in educational premises and local schools; and the evaluation of E-PreS System. Taking into consideration that every disaster drill aims to test and valid school plan and procedures; clarify and train personnel in roles and responsibilities; improve interagency coordination; identify gaps in resources; improve individual performance; and identify opportunities for improvement, E-PreS Project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC).

Keywords: Disaster drills, earthquake preparedness, E-PreS system, school emergency plans.

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Authors: Musa H. Arslan

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Strengthening of the existing seismically deficient reinforced concrete (RC) buildings is an important issue in earthquake prone regions. Addition of RC shear wall as infill or external walls into the structural system has been a commonly preferred strengthening technique since the Big Erzincan Earthquake occurred in Turkey, 1992. The newly added rigid infill walls act primarily as shear walls and relieve the non-ductile existing frames from being subjected to large shear demands providing that new RC inner or external walls are adequately anchored to the existing weak RC frame. The performance of the RC shear walls-RC weak frame connections by steel anchor dowels depends on some parameters such as compressive strength of the existing RC frame concrete, diameter and embedment length of anchored rebar, type of rebar, yielding stress of bar, properties of used chemicals, position of the anchor bars in RC. In this study, application problems of the steel anchor dowels have been checked with some field studies such as tensile test. Two different RC buildings which will be strengthened were selected, and before strengthening, some tests have been performed in the existing RC buildings. According to the field observation and experimental studies, if the concrete compressive strength is lower than 10 MPa, the performance of the anchors is reduced by 70%.

Keywords: Anchor dowel, concrete, damage, reinforced concrete, shear wall, frame.

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Authors: Lee Boudreau, Ash Kumar Khaitu, Laura A. S. MacDonald

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In April 2015, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal, killing, injuring, and displacing thousands of people. The earthquake also damaged water and sanitation service networks, leading to a high risk of diarrheal disease and the associated negative health impacts. In response to the disaster, the Environment and Public Health Organization (ENPHO), a Kathmandu-based non-governmental organization, worked with the Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology (CAWST), a Canadian education, training and consulting organization, to develop two training programs to educate volunteers on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) needs. The first training program was intended for acute response, with the second focusing on longer term recovery. A key focus was to equip the volunteers with the knowledge and skills to formulate useful WASH advice in the unanticipated circumstances they would encounter when working in affected areas. Within the first two weeks of the disaster, a two-day acute response training was developed, which focused on enabling volunteers to educate those affected by the disaster about local WASH issues, their link to health, and their increased importance immediately following emergency situations. Between March and October 2015, a total of 19 training events took place, with over 470 volunteers trained. The trained volunteers distributed hygiene kits and liquid chlorine for household water treatment. They also facilitated health messaging and WASH awareness activities in affected communities. A three-day recovery phase training was also developed and has been delivered to volunteers in Nepal since October 2015. This training focused on WASH issues during the recovery and reconstruction phases. The interventions and recommendations in the recovery phase training focus on long-term WASH solutions, and so form a link between emergency relief strategies and long-term development goals. ENPHO has trained 226 volunteers during the recovery phase, with training ongoing as of April 2016. In the aftermath of the earthquake, ENPHO found that its existing pool of volunteers were more than willing to help those in their communities who were more in need. By training these and new volunteers, ENPHO was able to reach many more communities in the immediate aftermath of the disaster; together they reached 11 of the 14 earthquake-affected districts. The collaboration between ENPHO and CAWST in developing the training materials was a highly collaborative and iterative process, which enabled the training materials to be developed within a short response time. By training volunteers on basic WASH topics during both the immediate response and the recovery phase, ENPHO and CAWST have been able to link immediate emergency relief to long-term developmental goals. While the recovery phase training continues in Nepal, CAWST is planning to decontextualize the training used in both phases so that it can be applied to other emergency situations in the future. The training materials will become part of the open content materials available on CAWST’s WASH Resources website.

Keywords: Water and sanitation, emergency response, education and training, building resilience.

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Authors: M. Rad, M. Dolatshahi Pirooz, M. Esmayili

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To understand the seismic behavior of the offshore structures, the dynamic interaction of the water-structure-soil should be assessed. In this regard the role of the water dynamic properties in magnifying or reducing of the effects of earthquake induced motions on offshore structures haven't been investigated in precise manner in available literature. In this paper the sea water level fluctuations effects on the seismic behavior of a sample of offshore structures has been investigated by emphasizing on the water-structure interaction phenomenon. For this purpose a two dimensional finite element model of offshore structures as well as surrounded water has been developed using ANSYS software. The effect of soil interaction with embedded pile foundation has been imposed by using a series of nonlinear springs in horizontal and vertical directions in soil-piles contact points. In the model, the earthquake induced motions have been applied on springs and consequently the motions propagated upward to the structure and surrounded water. As a result of numerical study, the horizontal deformations of the offshore deck as well as internal force and buckling coefficient in structural elements have been recorded and controlled with and without water presence. In part of study a parametric study has been accomplished on sea water level fluctuations and effect of this parameter has been studied on the aforementioned numerical results.

Keywords: Fluid-Structure Interaction, Jacket, Sea Water Level, Seismic Loading.

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Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning (ML) archetypal that could forecast the COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID-19 cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organization (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data are split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID-19 cases. Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and linear regression (LR) algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID-19 cases is evaluated. RF outperformed the other two ML algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n = 30. The mean square error obtained for RF is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis, RF algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID-19 cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest.

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Authors: Susanta Banerjee, Sanjaya Kumar Patro

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Buildings with floating column are highly undesirable built in seismically active areas. Many urban multi-storey buildings today have floating column buildings which are adopted to accommodate parking at ground floor or reception lobbies in the first storey. The earthquake forces developed at different floor levels in a building need to be brought down along the height to the ground by the shortest path; any deviation or discontinuity in this load transfer path results in poor performance of the building. Floating column buildings are severely damaged during earthquake. Damage on this structure can be reduce by taking the effect of infill wall. This paper presents the effect of stiffness of infill wall to the damage occurred in floating column building when ground shakes. Modelling and analysis are carried out by non linear analysis programme IDARC-2D. Damage occurred in beams, columns, storey are studied by formulating modified Park & Ang model to evaluate damage indices. Overall structural damage indices in buildings due to shaking of ground are also obtained. Dynamic response parameters i.e. lateral floor displacement, storey drift, time period, base shear of buildings are obtained and results are compared with the ordinary moment resisting frame buildings. Formation of cracks, yield, plastic hinge, are also observed during analysis.

Keywords: Floating column, Infill Wall, Park-Ang Damage Index, Damage State.

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Authors: Chin-Yu Lee, Iau-Teh Wang

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The mountain road slope failures triggered by earthquake activities and torrential rain namely to create the disaster. Province Road No. 24 is a main route to the Wutai Township. The area of the study is located at the mileages between 46K and 47K along the road. However, the road has been suffered frequent damages as a result of landslide and slope failures during typhoon seasons. An understanding of the sliding behaviors in the area appears to be necessary. Slope failures triggered by earthquake activities and heavy rainfalls occur frequently. The study is to understand the mechanism of slope failures and to look for the way to deal with the situation. In order to achieve these objectives, this paper is based on theoretical and structural geology data interpretation program to assess the potential slope sliding behavior. The study showed an intimate relationship between the landslide behavior of the slopes and the stratum materials, based on structural geology analysis method to analysis slope stability and finds the slope safety coefficient to predict the sites of destroyed layer. According to the case study and parameter analyses results, the slope mainly slips direction compared to the site located in the southeast area. Find rainfall to result in the rise of groundwater level is main reason of the landslide mechanism. Future need to set up effective horizontal drain at corrective location, that can effective restrain mountain road slope failures and increase stability of slope.

Keywords: slope stability analysis, Stereographic Projection, wedge Failure.

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Authors: Muhammad Naseem Baig, Razia Sharif

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From past many decades human beings are suffering from plethora of natural disasters. Occurrence of disasters is a frequent process; it changes conceptual myths as more and more advancement are made. Although we are living in technological era but in developing countries like Pakistan disasters are shaped by socially constructed roles. The need is to understand the most vulnerable group of society i.e. females; their issues are complex in nature because of undermined gender status in the society. There is a need to identify maximum issues regarding females and to enhance the achievement of millennium development goals (MDGs). Gender issues are of great concern all around the globe including Pakistan. Here female visibility in society is low, and also during disasters, the failure to understand the reality that concentrates on double burden including productive and reproductive care. Women have to contribute a lot in society so we need to make them more disaster resilient. For this non-structural measures like awareness, trainings and education must be carried out. In rural and in urban settings in any disaster like earthquake or flood, elements like gender perspective, their age, physical health, demographic issues contribute towards vulnerability. In Pakistan the gender issues in disasters were of less concern before 2005 earthquake and 2010 floods. Significant achievements are made after 2010 floods when gender and child cell was created to provide all facilities to women and girls. The aim of the study is to highlight all necessary facilities in a disaster to build coping mechanism in females from basic rights till advance level including education.

Keywords: Disaster resilient, Gender cell, Millennium development.

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Yuncai Liu

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Accurately predicting non-peak traffic is crucial to daily traffic for all forecasting models. In the paper, least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) are investigated to solve such a practical problem. It is the first time to apply the approach and analyze the forecast performance in the domain. For comparison purpose, two parametric and two non-parametric techniques are selected because of their effectiveness proved in past research. Having good generalization ability and guaranteeing global minima, LS-SVMs perform better than the others. Providing sufficient improvement in stability and robustness reveals that the approach is practically promising.

Keywords: Parametric and Nonparametric Techniques, Non-peak Traffic Forecasting

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Authors: T. K. Sriram, Joydip Dhar

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Models based on stage structure have found varied applications in population models. This paper proposes a stage structured model to study the trends in the computer and video game playing population of US. The game paying population is divided into three compartments based on their age group. After simulating the mathematical model, a forecast of the number of game players in each stage as well as an approximation of the average age of game players in future has been made.

Keywords: Age structure, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Stage structure.

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Authors: Masoud Mahdavi, Mojtaba Farzaneh Moghadam

Abstract:

The seismic forces caused by the waves created in the depths of the earth during the earthquake hit the structure and cause the building to vibrate. Creating large seismic forces will cause low-strength sections in the structure to suffer extensive surface damage. The use of new steel shear walls in steel structures has caused the strength of the building and its main members (columns) to increase due to the reduction and depreciation of seismic forces during earthquakes. In the present study, an attempt was made to evaluate a type of steel shear wall that has regular holes in the inner sheet by modeling the finite element model with Abacus software. The shear wall of the steel plate, measuring 6000 × 3000 mm (one floor) and 3 mm thickness, was modeled with four different pores with a cross-sectional area. The shear wall was dynamically subjected to a time history of 5 seconds by three accelerators, El Centro, Imperial Valley and Kobe. The results showed that increasing the distance between the geometric center of the hole and the geometric center of the inner plate in the steel shear wall (increasing the R_CS index) caused the total maximum acceleration to be transferred from the perimeter of the hole to horizontal and vertical beams. The results also show that there is no direct relationship between R_CS index and total acceleration in steel shear wall and R_CS index is separate from the peak ground acceleration value of earthquake.

Keywords: Hollow Steel plate shear wall, time history analysis, finite element method, Abaqus Software.

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Authors: Keiko Shimazu, Yasuhiro Maida, Tetsuya Sugata, Daisuke Tamakoshi, Kenji Makabe, Haruki Suzuki

Abstract:

In this paper, we report how to acquire serious victims’ locations in the Acute Stage of Large-scale Disasters, in an Emergency Information Network System designed by us. The background of our concept is based on the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11^th, 2011. Through many experiences of national crises caused by earthquakes and tsunamis, we have established advanced communication systems and advanced disaster medical response systems. However, Japan was devastated by huge tsunamis swept a vast area of Tohoku causing a complete breakdown of all the infrastructures including telecommunications. Therefore, we noticed that we need interdisciplinary collaboration between science of disaster medicine, regional administrative sociology, satellite communication technology and systems engineering experts. Communication of emergency information was limited causing a serious delay in the initial rescue and medical operation. For the emergency rescue and medical operations, the most important thing is to identify the number of casualties, their locations and status and to dispatch doctors and rescue workers from multiple organizations. In the case of the Tohoku earthquake, the dispatching mechanism and/or decision support system did not exist to allocate the appropriate number of doctors and locate disaster victims. Even though the doctors and rescue workers from multiple government organizations have their own dedicated communication system, the systems are not interoperable.

Keywords: Crisis management, disaster mitigation, messing, MGRS, Satellite communication system.

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Authors: Birol Yildiz, Abdullah Yalama, Metin Coskun

Abstract:

Many studies have shown that Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been widely used for forecasting financial markets, because of many financial and economic variables are nonlinear, and an ANN can model flexible linear or non-linear relationship among variables. The purpose of the study was to employ an ANN models to predict the direction of the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Indices (ISE National-100). As a result of this study, the model forecast the direction of the ISE National-100 to an accuracy of 74, 51%.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Istanbul StockExchange, Non-linear Modeling.

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Authors: Ren-Jieh Kuo, Chun-Shou Huang

Abstract:

The research of juice flavor forecasting has become more important in China. Due to the fast economic growth in China, many different kinds of juices have been introduced to the market. If a beverage company can understand their customers’ preference well, the juice can be served more attractive. Thus, this study intends to introducing the basic theory and computing process of grapes juice flavor forecasting based on support vector regression (SVR). Applying SVR, BPN, and LR to forecast the flavor of grapes juice in real data shows that SVR is more suitable and effective at predicting performance.

Keywords: Flavor forecasting, artificial neural networks, support vector regression, grape juice flavor.

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Authors: Antonio Di Leva, Roberto Berchi, Gianpiero Pescarmona, Michele Sonnessa

Abstract:

The aim of a biological model is to understand the integrated structure and behavior of complex biological systems as a function of the underlying molecular networks to achieve simulation and forecast of their operation. Although several approaches have been introduced to take into account structural and environment related features, relatively little attention has been given to represent the behavior of biological systems. The Abstract Biological Process (ABP) model illustrated in this paper is an object-oriented model based on UML (the standard object-oriented language). Its main objective is to bring into focus the functional aspects of the biological system under analysis.

Keywords: Biological processes, system dynamics, systemmodeling, UML.

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