Search results for: robust optimization.

Authors: Abdelaziz Khernane, Naceur Khelil, Leila Djerou

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to study the numerical implementation of the Hilbert Uniqueness Method for the exact boundary controllability of Euler-Bernoulli beam equation. This study may be difficult. This will depend on the problem under consideration (geometry, control and dimension) and the numerical method used. Knowledge of the asymptotic behaviour of the control governing the system at time T may be useful for its calculation. This idea will be developed in this study. We have characterized as a first step, the solution by a minimization principle and proposed secondly a method for its resolution to approximate the control steering the considered system to rest at time T.

Keywords: Boundary control, exact controllability, finite difference methods, functional optimization.

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Authors: Kamaldeep Joshi, Rajkumar Yadav, Sachin Allwadhi

Abstract:

Image steganography is the best aspect of information hiding. In this, the information is hidden within an image and the image travels openly on the Internet. The Least Significant Bit (LSB) is one of the most popular methods of image steganography. In this method, the information bit is hidden at the LSB of the image pixel. In one bit LSB steganography method, the total numbers of the pixels and the total number of message bits are equal to each other. In this paper, the LSB method of image steganography is used for watermarking. The watermarking is an application of the steganography. The watermark contains 80*88 pixels and each pixel requirs 8 bits for its binary equivalent form so, the total number of bits required to hide the watermark are 80*88*8(56320). The experiment was performed on standard 256*256 and 512*512 size images. After the watermark insertion, histogram analysis was performed. A noise factor (salt and pepper) of 0.02 was added to the stego image in order to evaluate the robustness of the method. The watermark was successfully retrieved after insertion of noise. An experiment was performed in order to know the imperceptibility of stego and the retrieved watermark. It is clear that the LSB watermarking scheme is robust to the salt and pepper noise.

Keywords: LSB, watermarking, salt and pepper, PSNR.

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Authors: Ram Kumar Soni, Alok Jain, Rajiv Saxena

Abstract:

The tree structured approach of non-uniform filterbank (NUFB) is normally used in perfect reconstruction (PR). The PR is not always feasible due to certain limitations, i.e, constraints in selecting design parameters, design complexity and some times output is severely affected by aliasing error if necessary and sufficient conditions of PR is not satisfied perfectly. Therefore, there has been generalized interest of researchers to go for near perfect reconstruction (NPR). In this proposed work, an optimized tree structure technique is used for the design of NPR non-uniform filterbank. Window functions of Blackman family are used to design the prototype FIR filter. A single variable linear optimization is used to minimize the amplitude distortion. The main feature of the proposed design is its simplicity with linear phase property.

Keywords: Tree structure, NUFB, QMF, NPR.

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Authors: Sh. Javadi, A. Alijani, A.H. Mazinan

Abstract:

This paper reviews the optimization available transmission capability (ATC) of power systems using a device of FACTS named SSSC equipped with energy storage devices. So that, emplacement and improvement of parameters of SSSC will be illustrated. Thus, voltage magnitude constraints of network buses, line transient stability constraints and voltage breakdown constraints are considered. To help the calculations, a comprehensive program in DELPHI is provided, which is able to simulate and trace the parameters of SSSC has been installed on a specific line. Furthermore, the provided program is able to compute ATC, TTC and maximum value of their enhancement after using SSSC.

Keywords: available transmission capability (ATC), total transmission capability (TTC), voltage constraints, stability constraints, FACTS, SSSC.

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Authors: G. Dottavio, M. F. Andrade, F. Renard, V. Cheutet, A.-L. L. S. Vercraene, P. Hoang, S. Briet, R. Dachicourt, Y. Baizet

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An important number of technological equipment and high-skilled workers over long periods of time have to be mobilized during nuclear decommissioning processes. The related operations generate complex flows of waste and high inventory levels, associated to information flows of heterogeneous types. Taking into account that more than 10 decommissioning operations are on-going in France and about 50 are expected toward 2025: A big challenge is addressed today. The management of decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear installations represents an important part of the nuclear-based energy lifecycle, since it has an environmental impact as well as an important influence on the electricity cost and therefore the price for end-users. Bringing new technologies and new solutions into decommissioning methodologies is thus mandatory to improve the quality, cost and delay efficiency of these operations. The purpose of our project is to improve decommissioning management efficiency by developing a decision-support framework dedicated to plan nuclear facility decommissioning operations and to optimize waste evacuation by means of a logistic approach. The target is to create an easy-to-handle tool capable of i) predicting waste flows and proposing the best decommissioning logistics scenario and ii) managing information during all the steps of the process and following the progress: planning, resources, delays, authorizations, saturation zones, waste volume, etc. In this article we present our results from waste nuclear flows simulation during decommissioning process, including discrete-event simulation supported by FLEXSIM 3-D software. This approach was successfully tested and our works confirms its ability to improve this type of industrial process by identifying the critical points of the chain and optimizing it by identifying improvement actions. This type of simulation, executed before the start of the process operations on the basis of a first conception, allow ‘what-if’ process evaluation and help to ensure quality of the process in an uncertain context. The simulation of nuclear waste flows before evacuation from the site will help reducing the cost and duration of the decommissioning process by optimizing the planning and the use of resources, transitional storage and expensive radioactive waste containers. Additional benefits are expected for the governance system of the waste evacuation since it will enable a shared responsibility of the waste flows.

Keywords: Nuclear decommissioning, logistical optimization, decision-support framework, waste management.

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Authors: M. R. Mustafa, M. H. Isa, R. B. Rezaur

Abstract:

The use of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling for prediction and forecasting variables in water resources engineering are being increasing rapidly. Infrastructural applications of ANN in terms of selection of inputs, architecture of networks, training algorithms, and selection of training parameters in different types of neural networks used in water resources engineering have been reported. ANN modeling conducted for water resources engineering variables (river sediment and discharge) published in high impact journals since 2002 to 2011 have been examined and presented in this review. ANN is a vigorous technique to develop immense relationship between the input and output variables, and able to extract complex behavior between the water resources variables such as river sediment and discharge. It can produce robust prediction results for many of the water resources engineering problems by appropriate learning from a set of examples. It is important to have a good understanding of the input and output variables from a statistical analysis of the data before network modeling, which can facilitate to design an efficient network. An appropriate training based ANN model is able to adopt the physical understanding between the variables and may generate more effective results than conventional prediction techniques.

Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, sediment,

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Authors: Robin Becker, Nane Roetmann, Manfred Helmus

Abstract:

Construction companies lack junior staff for construction management, with students lacking the appeal of the profession in particular. The conflict between the traditional job profile and the current desires of junior staff for contemporary and flexible working models must be resolved. Increasing flexibility is essential for the future viability of small and medium-sized enterprises. The implementation of modern work modules can help here. This paper presents the validation results of the developed work modules in construction practice.

Keywords: Modern construction management, construction industry, work modules, shortage of junior staff, sustainable personnel management, working time model.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper proposes entropic programming for the freighter aircraft selection problem using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive framework by focusing on the perspective of freighter aircraft selection. In order to achieve this goal, an integrated entropic programming approach was proposed to evaluate and rank alternatives. The decision criteria and aircraft alternatives were identified from the research data analysis. The objective criteria weights were determined by the mean weight method and the standard deviation method. The proposed entropic programming model was applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting freighter aircraft. The proposed entropic programming technique gives robust, reliable, and efficient results in modeling decision making analysis problems. As a result of entropic programming analysis, Boeing B747-8F, a freighter aircraft alternative ( a3), was chosen as the most suitable freighter aircraft candidate.   

Keywords: entropic programming, additive weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS, aircraft selection, freighter aircraft, Boeing B747-8F, Boeing B777F, Airbus A350F

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Authors: Ramin Halavati, Saeed B. Shouraki, Mahdieh Noroozian, Saman H. Zadeh

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Packing problems arise in a wide variety of application areas. The basic problem is that of determining an efficient arrangement of different objects in a region without any overlap and with minimal wasted gap between shapes. This paper presents a novel population based approach for optimizing arrangement of irregular shapes. In this approach, each shape is coded as an agent and the agents' reproductions and grouping policies results in arrangements of the objects in positions with least wasted area between them. The approach is implemented in an application for cutting sheets and test results on several problems from literature are presented.

Keywords: Optimization, Bin Packing, Agent Based Systems.

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Authors: M. Chumburidze, N. Salia, T. Namchevadze

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This work deals with case processing problems in business. The task of strategic credit requirements management of cases portfolio is discussed. The information model of credit requirements in a binary tree diagram is considered. The algorithms to solve issues of prioritizing clusters of cases in business have been investigated. An implementation of priority queues to support case management operations has been presented. The corresponding pseudo codes for the programming application have been constructed. The tools applied in this development are based on binary tree ordering algorithms, optimization theory, and business management methods.

Keywords: Credit network, case portfolio, binary tree, priority queue, stack.

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Authors: Tirtha S. Das, Ayan K. Sau, Subir K. Sarkar

Abstract:

Digital watermarking is a way to provide the facility of secure multimedia data communication besides its copyright protection approach. The Spread Spectrum modulation principle is widely used in digital watermarking to satisfy the robustness of multimedia signals against various signal-processing operations. Several SS watermarking algorithms have been proposed for multimedia signals but very few works have discussed on the issues responsible for secure data communication and its robustness improvement. The current paper has critically analyzed few such factors namely properties of spreading codes, proper signal decomposition suitable for data embedding, security provided by the key, successive bit cancellation method applied at decoder which have greater impact on the detection reliability, secure communication of significant signal under camouflage of insignificant signals etc. Based on the analysis, robust SS watermarking scheme for secure data communication is proposed in wavelet domain and improvement in secure communication and robustness performance is reported through experimental results. The reported result also shows improvement in visual and statistical invisibility of the hidden data.

Keywords: Spread spectrum modulation, spreading code, signaldecomposition, security, successive bit cancellation

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Authors: Sammani Danwawu Abdullahi

Abstract:

Vertex Enumeration Algorithms explore the methods and procedures of generating the vertices of general polyhedra formed by system of equations or inequalities. These problems of enumerating the extreme points (vertices) of general polyhedra are shown to be NP-Hard. This lead to exploring how to count the vertices of general polyhedra without listing them. This is also shown to be #P-Complete. Some fully polynomial randomized approximation schemes (fpras) of counting the vertices of some special classes of polyhedra associated with Down-Sets, Independent Sets, 2-Knapsack problems and 2 x n transportation problems are presented together with some discovered open problems.

Keywords: Approximation, counting with uncertainties, mathematical programming, optimization, vertex enumeration.

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Authors: A. Charlangsut, M. Boonthienthong, N. Rugthaicharoencheep

Abstract:

This paper proposes a mathematical model for transmission expansion employing optimization method with scenario analysis approach. Economic transmission planning, on the other hand, seeks investment opportunities so that network expansions can generate more economic benefits than the costs. This approach can be used as a decision model for building new transmission lines added to the existing transmission system minimizing costs of the entire system subject to various system’s constraints and consider of loss value of transmission system and N-1 checking. The results show that the proposed model is efficient to be applied for the larger scale of power system topology.

Keywords: Transmission Expansion Planning, Economic Dispatch, Scenario Analysis, Contingency.

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Authors: M. Hossain, A. H. Khan, M. A. R. Sarkar

Abstract:

Primary containment structure is one of the five safety layers of a nuclear facility which is needed to be designed in such a manner that it can withstand the pressure and excessive radioactivity during accidental situations. It is also necessary to ensure minimization of cost with maximum possible safety in order to make the design economically feasible and attractive. This paper attempts to identify the optimum design conditions for primary containment structure considering both mechanical and radiation safety keeping the economic aspects in mind. This work takes advantage of commercial simulation software to identify the suitable conditions without the requirement of costly experiments. Generated data may be helpful for further studies.

Keywords: PWR, concrete containment, finite element approach, neutron attenuation, Von Mises Stress.

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Authors: Mohamed Boulouird, Moha M'Rabet Hassani

Abstract:

In this paper, many techniques for blind identification of moving average (MA) process are presented. These methods utilize third- and fourth-order cumulants of the noisy observations of the system output. The system is driven by an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) non-Gaussian sequence that is not observed. Two nonlinear optimization algorithms, namely the Gradient Descent and the Gauss-Newton algorithms are exposed. An algorithm based on the joint-diagonalization of the fourth-order cumulant matrices (FOSI) is also considered, as well as an improved version of the classical C(q, 0, k) algorithm based on the choice of the Best 1-D Slice of fourth-order cumulants. To illustrate the effectiveness of our methods, various simulation examples are presented.

Keywords: Cumulants, Identification, MA models, Parameter estimation

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Authors: M. V. Sudhamani, C. R. Venugopal

Abstract:

Content-based Image Retrieval (CBIR) aims at searching image databases for specific images that are similar to a given query image based on matching of features derived from the image content. This paper focuses on a low-dimensional color based indexing technique for achieving efficient and effective retrieval performance. In our approach, the color features are extracted using the mean shift algorithm, a robust clustering technique. Then the cluster (region) mode is used as representative of the image in 3-D color space. The feature descriptor consists of the representative color of a region and is indexed using a spatial indexing method that uses *R -tree thus avoiding the high-dimensional indexing problems associated with the traditional color histogram. Alternatively, the images in the database are clustered based on region feature similarity using Euclidian distance. Only representative (centroids) features of these clusters are indexed using *R -tree thus improving the efficiency. For similarity retrieval, each representative color in the query image or region is used independently to find regions containing that color. The results of these methods are compared. A JAVA based query engine supporting query-by- example is built to retrieve images by color.

Keywords: Content-based, indexing, cluster, region.

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Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Martin Šimek, Michal Martinovič, Elena Šikudová

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The television multiplex has reserved capacity and therefore we can use only limited number of videos for propagation of it. Appropriate composition of the multiplex has a major impact on how many videos is spread by multiplex. Therefore in this paper is designed a simple algorithm to optimize capacity utilization multiplex. Significant impact on the number of programs in the multiplex has also the fact from which programs is composed. Content of multiplex can be movies, news, sport, animated stories, documentaries, etc. These types have their own specific characteristics that affect their resulting data stream. In this paper is also done an impact analysis of the composition of the multiplex to use its capacity by video content. 

Keywords: Multiplex, content, group of pictures, frame, capacity.

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, T. Langtharthong

Abstract:

This paper presents the optimal placement and sizing of distributed generation (DG) in a distribution system. The problem is to reliability improvement of distribution system with distributed generations. The technique employed to solve the minimization problem is based on a developed Tabu search algorithm and reliability worth analysis. The developed methodology is tested with a distribution system of Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) bus 2. It can be seen from the case study that distributed generation can reduce the customer interruption cost and therefore improve the reliability of the system. It is expected that our proposed method will be utilized effectively for distribution system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation Optimization technique Reliability improvement, Distribution system.

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Authors: I. Davies, O. L. C. Haas

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of stability and stabilization for neutral delay-differential systems with infinite delay is investigated. Using Lyapunov method, new delay-independent sufficient condition for the stability of neutral systems with infinite delay is obtained in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Memory-less state feedback controllers are then designed for the stabilization of the system using the feasible solution of the resulting LMI, which are easily solved using any optimization algorithms. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Infinite delays, Lyapunov method, linear matrix inequality, neutral systems, stability.

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Authors: Jaedo Kim, Youngjoon Han, Hernsoo Hahn

Abstract:

This paper propose the robust character segmentation method for license plate with topological transform such as twist,rotation. The first step of the proposed method is to find a candidate region for character and license plate. The character or license plate must be appeared as closed loop in the edge image. In the case of detecting candidate for character region, the evaluation of detected region is using topological relationship between each character. When this method decides license plate candidate region, character features in the region with binarization are used. After binarization for the detected candidate region, each character region is decided again. In this step, each character region is fitted more than previous step. In the next step, the method checks other character regions with different scale near the detected character regions, because most license plates have license numbers with some meaningful characters around them. The method uses perspective projection for geometrical normalization. If there is topological distortion in the character region, the method projects the region on a template which is defined as standard license plate using perspective projection. In this step, the method is able to separate each number region and small meaningful characters. The evaluation results are tested with a number of test images.

Keywords: License Plate Detection, Character Segmentation, Perspective Projection, Topological Transform.

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Authors: Yi-Haur Shiau, Sun-In Lin, Shi-Wei Lo, Hsiu-Mei Chou, Yi-Hsuan Chen

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel multi-format stream grid architecture for real-time image monitoring system. The system, based on a three-tier architecture, includes stream receiving unit, stream processor unit, and presentation unit. It is a distributed computing and a loose coupling architecture. The benefit is the amount of required servers can be adjusted depending on the loading of the image monitoring system. The stream receive unit supports multi capture source devices and multi-format stream compress encoder. Stream processor unit includes three modules; they are stream clipping module, image processing module and image management module. Presentation unit can display image data on several different platforms. We verified the proposed grid architecture with an actual test of image monitoring. We used a fast image matching method with the adjustable parameters for different monitoring situations. Background subtraction method is also implemented in the system. Experimental results showed that the proposed architecture is robust, adaptive, and powerful in the image monitoring system.

Keywords: Motion detection, grid architecture, image monitoring system, and background subtraction.

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Authors: Alawode Kehinde O., Jubril Abimbola M. Komolafe Olusola A.

Abstract:

This paper solves the environmental/ economic dispatch power system problem using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) and its hybrid with a Convergence Accelerator Operator (CAO), called the NSGA-II/CAO. These multiobjective evolutionary algorithms were applied to the standard IEEE 30-bus six-generator test system. Several optimization runs were carried out on different cases of problem complexity. Different quality measure which compare the performance of the two solution techniques were considered. The results demonstrated that the inclusion of the CAO in the original NSGA-II improves its convergence while preserving the diversity properties of the solution set.

Keywords: optimal power flow, multiobjective power dispatch, evolutionary algorithm

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Authors: Susovan Chakrabortty, Madhumangal Pal, Prasun Kumar Nayak

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A manufacturing inventory model with shortages with carrying cost, shortage cost, setup cost and demand quantity as imprecise numbers, instead of real numbers, namely interval number is considered here. First, a brief survey of the existing works on comparing and ranking any two interval numbers on the real line is presented. A common algorithm for the optimum production quantity (Economic lot-size) per cycle of a single product (so as to minimize the total average cost) is developed which works well on interval number optimization under consideration. Finally, the designed algorithm is illustrated with numerical example.

Keywords: EOQ, Inventory, Interval Number, Demand, Production, Simulation

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Authors: Naci Kalkan, Ihsan Dagtekin

Abstract:

Passive design responds to improve indoor thermal comfort and minimize the energy consumption. The present research analyzed the how efficiently passive solar technologies generate heating and cooling and provide the system integration for domestic applications. In addition to this, the aim of this study is to increase the efficiency of solar systems system with integration some innovation and optimization. As a result, outputs of the project might start a new sector to provide environmentally friendly and cheap cooling for domestic use.

Keywords: Passive Solar Systems, Heating, Cooling, Thermal Comfort, Ventilation Systems.

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Authors: Jian Wang, Lu Yang, Jiong Peng

Abstract:

Internal circulation two-platen clamping system for injection molding machine (IMM) has many potential advantages on energy-saving. In order to estimate its properties, experiments were carried out in this paper. Displacement and pressure of the components were measured. In comparison, the model of hydraulic clamping system was established by using AMESim. The related parameters as well as the energy consumption could be calculated. According to the analysis, the hydraulic system was optimized in order to reduce the energy consumption.

Keywords: AMESim, energy-saving, injection molding machine, internal circulation.

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Authors: Jinseon Song, Yongwan Park

Abstract:

In this paper, propose method that can user’s position that based on database is built from single camera. Previous positioning calculate distance by arrival-time of signal like GPS (Global Positioning System), RF(Radio Frequency). However, these previous method have weakness because these have large error range according to signal interference. Method for solution estimate position by camera sensor. But, signal camera is difficult to obtain relative position data and stereo camera is difficult to provide real-time position data because of a lot of image data, too. First of all, in this research we build image database at space that able to provide positioning service with single camera. Next, we judge similarity through image matching of database image and transmission image from user. Finally, we decide position of user through position of most similar database image. For verification of propose method, we experiment at real-environment like indoor and outdoor. Propose method is wide positioning range and this method can verify not only position of user but also direction.

Keywords: Positioning, Distance, Camera, Features, SURF (Speed-Up Robust Features), Database, Estimation.

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Authors: C. Wan, A. Mita

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel system for monitoring the health of underground pipelines. Some of these pipelines transport dangerous contents and any damage incurred might have catastrophic consequences. However, most of these damage are unintentional and usually a result of surrounding construction activities. In order to prevent these potential damages, monitoring systems are indispensable. This paper focuses on acoustically recognizing road cutters since they prelude most construction activities in modern cities. Acoustic recognition can be easily achieved by installing a distributed computing sensor network along the pipelines and using smart sensors to “listen" for potential threat; if there is a real threat, raise some form of alarm. For efficient pipeline monitoring, a novel monitoring approach is proposed. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was studied and applied. Eigenvalues were regarded as the special signature that could characterize a sound sample, and were thus used for the feature vector for sound recognition. The denoising ability of PCA could make it robust to noise interference. One class SVM was used for classifier. On-site experiment results show that the proposed PCA and SVM based acoustic recognition system will be very effective with a low tendency for raising false alarms.

Keywords: One class SVM, pipeline monitoring system, principal component analysis, sound recognition, third party damage.

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Authors: F. Guspi, E. García

Abstract:

This exploratory study gives an overview of the evolution of the main financial and performance indicators of the Academic Spin-Off’s and High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s in year 3 and year 6 after its creation in the region of Catalonia in Spain. The study compares and evaluates results of these different measures of performance and the degree of success of these companies for each University. We found that the average Catalonian Academic Spin-Off is small and have not achieved the sustainability stage at year 6. On the contrary, a small group of High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s exhibits robust performance with high profits in year 6. Our results support the need to increase selectivity and support for these companies especially near year 3, because are the ones that will bring wealth and employment. University role as an investor has rigid norms and habits that impede an efficient economic return from their ASO investment. Universities with high performance on sales and employment in year 3 not always could sustain this growth in year 6 because their ASO’s are not profitable. On the contrary, profitable ASO exhibit superior performance in all measurement indicators in year 6. We advocate the need of a balanced growth (with profits) as a way to obtain subsequent continuous growth.

Keywords: Academic Spin-Off (ASO), University Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurial University, high growth, New Technology Based Companies (NTBC), University Spin-Off.

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Authors: Jaibir Sharma, Lee JaeWung, Merugu Srinivas, Navab Singh

Abstract:

This paper presents thermal annealing de-wetting technique for the preparation of porous metal membrane for Thin Film Encapsulation (TFE) application. Thermal annealing de-wetting experimental results reveal that pore size formation in porous metal membrane depend upon i.e. 1. The substrate at which metal is deposited, 2. Melting point of metal used for porous metal cap layer membrane formation, 3. Thickness of metal used for cap layer, 4. Temperature used for formation of porous metal membrane. In order to demonstrate this technique, Silver (Ag) was used as a metal for preparation of porous metal membrane on amorphous silicon (a-Si) and silicon oxide. The annealing of the silver thin film of various thicknesses was performed at different temperature. Pores in porous silver film were analyzed using Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). In order to check the usefulness of porous metal film for TFE application, the porous silver film prepared on amorphous silicon (a- Si) and silicon oxide was released using XeF2 and VHF, respectively. Finally, guide line and structures are suggested to use this porous membrane for robust TFE application.

Keywords: De-wetting, thermal annealing, metal, melting point, porous.

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

Abstract:

The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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