Search results for: acceptance decision criteria

Authors: Nichanant Sermsri, Chananchida Yuktirat

Abstract:

This research was the experimental research. Its purpose was to find out how coconut shells can be adapted to be equipment for foot and calf reflexology. The sample group was 58 female street vendors in Thewet Market, Bangkok, selected by selection criteria and voluntary. The data collecting tool was the Visual Analogue Scale. The massaging tool made from coconut shells was the key equipment for this research. The research team assessed the level of exhaustion and heart rate among sample group before and after the massage, then analyzed the data by mean, standard deviation and paired sample t-test.

We found out from the research that

1. The level of exhaustion decreased 4.529 levels after the massage and the standard deviation was 1.6195. The heart rates went down 11.67 times/minute and the standard deviation was 6.742.
2. The level of exhaustion and heart rate after the massage decreased with the statistically significance at 0.01

Keywords: Coconut Shells, Foot Massage, Foot Reflexology, Massaging Plate.

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Authors: M. G. Dirodi, G. Gugliotta, C. Leonardi

Abstract:

Member States shall establish zones and agglomerations throughout their territory to assess and manage air quality in order to comply with European directives. In Italy decree 155/2010, transposing Directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe, merged into a single act the previous provisions on ambient air quality assessment and management, including those resulting from the implementation of Directive 2004/107/EC relating to arsenic, cadmium, nickel, mercury and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air. Decree 155/2010 introduced stricter rules for identifying zones on the basis of the characteristics of the territory in spite of considering pollution levels, as it was in the past. The implementation of such new criteria has reduced the great variability of the previous zoning, leading to a significant reduction of the total number of zones and to a complete and uniform ambient air quality assessment and management throughout the Country. The present document is related to the new zones definition in Italy according to Decree 155/2010. In particular the paper contains the description and the analysis of the outcome of zoning and classification.

Keywords: Zones, agglomerations, air quality assessment, classification.

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Authors: Ewa. M. Sztendur, Neil T. Diamond

Abstract:

Random Forests are a powerful classification technique, consisting of a collection of decision trees. One useful feature of Random Forests is the ability to determine the importance of each variable in predicting the outcome. This is done by permuting each variable and computing the change in prediction accuracy before and after the permutation. This variable importance calculation is similar to a one-factor-at a time experiment and therefore is inefficient. In this paper, we use a regular fractional factorial design to determine which variables to permute. Based on the results of the trials in the experiment, we calculate the individual importance of the variables, with improved precision over the standard method. The method is illustrated with a study of student attrition at Monash University.

Keywords: Random Forests, Variable Importance, Fractional Factorial Designs, Student Attrition.

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Authors: Zahra Banakar, Farzad Tahriri

Abstract:

It has often been said that the strength of any country resides in the strength of its industrial sector, and Progress in industrial society has been accomplished by the creation of new technologies. Developments have been facilitated by the increasing availability of advanced manufacturing technology (AMT), in addition the implementation of advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) requires careful planning at all levels of the organization to ensure that the implementation will achieve the intended goals. Justification and implementation of advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) involves decisions that are crucial for the practitioners regarding the survival of business in the present days of uncertain manufacturing world. This paper assists the industrial managers to consider all the important criteria for success AMT implementation, when purchasing new technology. Concurrently, this paper classifies the tangible benefits of a technology that are evaluated by addressing both cost and time dimensions, and the intangible benefits are evaluated by addressing technological, strategic, social and human issues to identify and create awareness of the essential elements in the AMT implementation process and identify the necessary actions before implementing AMT.

Keywords: Advanced Manufacturing Technology (AMT), Justification and Classification.

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Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder

Abstract:

We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.

Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.

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Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto

Abstract:

In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.

Keywords: Capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming.

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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Authors: Salaheddin Odeh, Ibrahim O. Adwan

Abstract:

This interdisciplinary study is an investigation to evaluate user-interfaces in business administration. The study is going to be implemented on two computerized business administration systems with two distinctive user-interfaces, so that differences between the two systems can be determined. Both systems, a commercial and a prototype developed for the purpose of this study, deal with ordering of supplies, tendering procedures, issuing purchase orders, controlling the movement of the stocks against their actual balances on the shelves and editing them on their tabulations. In the second suggested system, modern computer graphics and multimedia issues were taken into consideration to cover the drawbacks of the first system. To highlight differences between the two investigated systems regarding some chosen standard quality criteria, the study employs various statistical techniques and methods to evaluate the users- interaction with both systems. The study variables are divided into two divisions: independent representing the interfaces of the two systems, and dependent embracing efficiency, effectiveness, satisfaction, error rate etc.

Keywords: Evaluation and usability testing, software prototyping, statistical methods, user-interface design.

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Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie

Abstract:

The research examines the factors that affect customer churn (CC) in the Jordanian telecom industry. A total of 700 surveys were distributed. Cluster analysis revealed three main clusters. Results showed that CC and customer satisfaction (CS) were the key determinants in forming the three clusters. In two clusters, the center values of CC were high, indicating that the customers were loyal and SC was expensive and time- and energy-consuming. Still, the mobile service provider (MSP) should enhance its communication (COM), and value added services (VASs), as well as customer complaint management systems (CCMS). Finally, for the third cluster the center of the CC indicates a poor level of loyalty, which facilitates customers churn to another MSP. The results of this study provide valuable feedback for MSP decision makers regarding approaches to improving their performance and reducing CC.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, telecom industry, switching cost, customer churn.

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Authors: Ali Sarhadi, Mohammad Reza Meybodi, Ali Yousefi

Abstract:

Resource discovery is one of the chief services of a grid. A new approach to discover the provenances in grid through learning automata has been propounded in this article. The objective of the aforementioned resource-discovery service is to select the resource based upon the user-s applications and the mercantile yardsticks that is to say opting for an originator which can accomplish the user-s tasks in the most economic manner. This novel service is submitted in two phases. We proffered an applicationbased categorization by means of an intelligent nerve-prone plexus. The user in question sets his or her application as the input vector of the nerve-prone nexus. The output vector of the aforesaid network limns the appropriateness of any one of the resource for the presented executive procedure. The most scrimping option out of those put forward in the previous stage which can be coped with to fulfill the task in question is picked out. Te resource choice is carried out by means of the presented algorithm based upon the learning automata.

Keywords: Resource discovery, learning automata, neural network, economic policy

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Authors: Defu Zhang, Qingshan Jiang, Xin Li

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of a well-known neural network technique, multilayer back-propagation (BP) neural network, in financial data mining. A modified neural network forecasting model is presented, and an intelligent mining system is developed. The system can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the prediction of future trends to stock market, and provide decision-making for stock investors. The simulation result of seven years to Shanghai Composite Index shows that the return achieved by this mining system is about three times as large as that achieved by the buy and hold strategy, so it is advantageous to apply neural networks to forecast financial time series, the different investors could benefit from it.

Keywords: Data mining, neural network, stock forecasting.

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Authors: Y. Harold Robinson, E. Golden Julie

Abstract:

Dynamic Routing in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) has played a significant task in research for the recent years. Energy consumption and data delivery in time are the major parameters with the usage of sensor nodes that are significant criteria for these networks. The location of sensor nodes must not be prearranged. Clustering in WSN is a key methodology which is used to enlarge the life-time of a sensor network. It consists of numerous real-time applications. The features of WSNs are minimized the consumption of energy. Soft computing techniques can be included to accomplish improved performance. This paper surveys the modern trends in routing enclose fuzzy logic and Neuro-fuzzy logic based on the clustering techniques and implements a comparative study of the numerous related methodologies.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, clustering, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy logic, energy efficiency.

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Authors: Yang Cui, Yong Qiang Chen

Abstract:

An appropriate project delivery system (PDS) is crucial to the success of a construction projects. Case-based Reasoning (CBR) is a useful support for PDS selection. However, the traditional CBR approach represents cases as attribute-value vectors without taking relations among attributes into consideration, and could not calculate the similarity when the structures of cases are not strictly same. Therefore, this paper solves this problem by adopting the Relational Case-based Reasoning (RCBR) approach for PDS selection, considering both the structural similarity and feature similarity. To develop the feature terms of the construction projects, the criteria and factors governing PDS selection process are first identified. Then feature terms for the construction projects are developed. Finally, the mechanism of similarity calculation and a case study indicate how RCBR works for PDS selection. The adoption of RCBR in PDS selection expands the scope of application of traditional CBR method and improves the accuracy of the PDS selection system.

Keywords: Relational Cased-based Reasoning, Case-based Reasoning, Project delivery system, Selection.

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Authors: Jin Xu, Albert Y.S. Lam, Victor O.K. Li

Abstract:

Stock portfolio selection is a classic problem in finance, and it involves deciding how to allocate an institution-s or an individual-s wealth to a number of stocks, with certain investment objectives (return and risk). In this paper, we adopt the classical Markowitz mean-variance model and consider an additional common realistic constraint, namely, the cardinality constraint. Thus, stock portfolio optimization becomes a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem and it is difficult to be solved by exact optimization algorithms. Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO), which mimics the molecular interactions in a chemical reaction process, is a population-based metaheuristic method. Two different types of CRO, named canonical CRO and Super Molecule-based CRO (S-CRO), are proposed to solve the stock portfolio selection problem. We test both canonical CRO and S-CRO on a benchmark and compare their performance under two criteria: Markowitz efficient frontier (Pareto frontier) and Sharpe ratio. Computational experiments suggest that S-CRO is promising in handling the stock portfolio optimization problem.

Keywords: Stock portfolio selection, Markowitz model, Chemical Reaction Optimization, Sharpe ratio

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Authors: M. Arja, G. Sauce, B. Souyri

Abstract:

Overall cost is a significant consideration in any decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value, its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually unexpected uncertainty factors.

Keywords: Asset management, building life cycle uncertainty, building value, overall cost.

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Authors: P. Nagendra, S. Halder nee Dey, S. Paul, T. Datta

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology to assess the voltage stability status combined with optimal power flow technique using an instantaneous two-bus equivalent model of power system incorporating static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) controllers. There by, a generalized global voltage stability indicator being developed has been applied to a robust practical Indian Eastern Grid 203-bus system. Simulation results have proved that the proposed methodology is promising to assess voltage stability of any power system at any operating point in global scenario. Voltage stability augmentation with the application of SVC at the weakest bus and TCSC at critical line connected to the weakest bus is compared with the system having no compensation. In the proposed network equivalent model the generators have been modeled more accurately considering economic criteria.

Keywords: Equivalent two-bus model, global voltage security indicator, optimal power flow, SVC, TCSC.

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Authors: Derya Eren Akyol, Gonca Tuncel, G. Mirac Bayhan

Abstract:

Activity-Based Costing (ABC) represents an alternative paradigm to traditional cost accounting system and it often provides more accurate cost information for decision making such as product pricing, product mix, and make-orbuy decisions. ABC models the causal relationships between products and the resources used in their production and traces the cost of products according to the activities through the use of appropriate cost drivers. In this paper, the implementation of the ABC in a manufacturing system is analyzed and a comparison with the traditional cost based system in terms of the effects on the product costs are carried out to highlight the difference between two costing methodologies. By using this methodology, a valuable insight into the factors that cause the cost is provided, helping to better manage the activities of the company.

Keywords: Activity-based costing, manufacturing systems, product costs, traditional costing.

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Authors: Jolly Puri, Shiv Prasad Yadav

Abstract:

Multi-component data envelopment analysis (MC-DEA) is a popular technique for measuring aggregate performance of the decision making units (DMUs) along with their components. However, the conventional MC-DEA is limited to crisp input and output data which may not always be available in exact form. In real life problems, data may be imprecise or fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we propose (i) a fuzzy MC-DEA (FMC-DEA) model in which shared and undesirable fuzzy resources are incorporated, (ii) the proposed FMC-DEA model is transformed into a pair of crisp models using α cut approach, (iii) fuzzy aggregate performance of a DMU and fuzzy efficiencies of components are defined to be fuzzy numbers, and (iv) a numerical example is illustrated to validate the proposed approach.

Keywords: Multi-component DEA, fuzzy multi-component DEA, fuzzy resources.

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Authors: Mohamed Ali KAMMOUN, Ahmed Ben HAMIDA

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel statistical approach to corpus-based speech synthesis. Classically, phonetic information is defined and considered as acoustic reference to be respected. In this way, many studies were elaborated for acoustical unit classification. This type of classification allows separating units according to their symbolic characteristics. Indeed, target cost and concatenation cost were classically defined for unit selection. In Corpus-Based Speech Synthesis System, when using large text corpora, cost functions were limited to a juxtaposition of symbolic criteria and the acoustic information of units is not exploited in the definition of the target cost. In this manuscript, we token in our consideration the unit phonetic information corresponding to acoustic information. This would be realized by defining a probabilistic linguistic Bi-grams model basically used for unit selection. The selected units would be extracted from the English TIMIT corpora.

Keywords: Unit selection, Corpus-based Speech Synthesis, Bigram model

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Authors: Nermin Ozgulbas, Ali Serhan Koyuncugil

Abstract:

One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient finance background. In this study, an Early Warning System (EWS) model based on data mining for financial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of the model implemented which covered 7,853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps has been determined for financial risk mitigation.

Keywords: Early Warning Systems, Data Mining, Financial Risk, SMEs.

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Authors: Muniyasamy Kalanchiam, Baskar Mannai

Abstract:

Topology Optimization is a defined as the method of determining optimal distribution of material for the assumed design space with functionality, loads and boundary conditions [1]. Topology optimization can be used to optimize shape for the purposes of weight reduction, minimizing material requirements or selecting cost effective materials [2]. Topology optimization has been implemented through the use of finite element methods for the analysis, and optimization techniques based on the method of moving asymptotes, genetic algorithms, optimality criteria method, level sets and topological derivatives. Case study of Typical “Fuselage design" is considered for this paper to explain the benefits of Topology Optimization in the design cycle. A cylindrical shell is assumed as the design space and aerospace standard pay loads were applied on the fuselage with wing attachments as constraints. Then topological optimization is done using Finite Element (FE) based software. This optimization results in the structural concept design which satisfies all the design constraints using minimum material.

Keywords: Fuselage, Topology optimization, payloads, designoptimization, Finite Element Analysis.

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Authors: H. Dujmic, V. Papic, H. Turic

Abstract:

The article presents a new method for detection of artificial objects and materials from images of the environmental (non-urban) terrain. Our approach uses the hue and saturation (or Cb and Cr) components of the image as the input to the segmentation module that uses the mean shift method. The clusters obtained as the output of this stage have been processed by the decision-making module in order to find the regions of the image with the significant possibility of representing human. Although this method will detect various non-natural objects, it is primarily intended and optimized for detection of humans; i.e. for search and rescue purposes in non-urban terrain where, in normal circumstances, non-natural objects shouldn-t be present. Real world images are used for the evaluation of the method.

Keywords: Landscape surveillance, mean shift algorithm, image segmentation, target detection.

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Authors: M. Polanský

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new method called ARPDC (Advanced Robust Parallel Distributed Compensation) for automatic control of nonlinear systems. This method improves a quality of robust control by interpolating of robust and optimal controller. The weight of each controller is determined by an original criteria function for model validity and disturbance appreciation. ARPDC method is based on nonlinear Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy systems and Parallel Distributed Compensation (PDC) control scheme. The relaxed stability conditions of ARPDC control of nominal system have been derived. The advantages of presented method are demonstrated on the inverse pendulum benchmark problem. From comparison between three different controllers (robust, optimal and ARPDC) follows, that ARPDC control is almost optimal with the robustness close to the robust controller. The results indicate that ARPDC algorithm can be a good alternative not only for a robust control, but in some cases also to an adaptive control of nonlinear systems.

Keywords: Robust control, optimal control, Takagi–Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models, linear matrix inequality (LMI), observer, Advanced Robust Parallel Distributed Compensation (ARPDC).

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejía, Jenny Paola Forero Pachón, Luis Carlos Gómez Flórez

Abstract:

Action research is a qualitative research methodology, which leads the researcher to delve into the problems of a community in order to understand its needs in depth and finally, to propose actions that lead to a change of social paradigm. Although this methodology had its beginnings in the human sciences, it has attracted increasing interest and acceptance in the field of information systems research since the 1990s. The countless possibilities offered nowadays by the use of Information Technologies (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities have meant a change of social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. According to this, governments, large corporations, small entrepreneurs and in general, organizations of all kinds are using IT to virtualize their processes, taking them from the physical environment to the digital environment. However, there is a potential risk for organizations related with exposing valuable information without an appropriate framework for protecting it. This paper shows progress in the development of a methodological design to manage the information security risks associated with the IT-based processes virtualization, by applying the principles of the action research methodology and it is the result of a systematic review of the scientific literature. This design consists of seven fundamental stages. These are distributed in the three stages described in the action research methodology: 1) Observe, 2) Analyze and 3) Take actions. Finally, this paper aims to offer an alternative tool to traditional information security management methodologies with a view to being applied specifically in the planning stage of IT-based process virtualization in order to foresee risks and to establish security controls before formulating IT solutions in any type of organization.

Keywords: Action research, information security, information technology, methodological design, process virtualization, risk management.

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh, Bhaskar Bhowmick

Abstract:

Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into during decision-making in product development and related areas. Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirmed the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention criterion ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.

Keywords: Uncertainty, market, orientation, competitor, demand.

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Authors: Yin-Yann Chen, Tzu-Ling Chen

Abstract:

This study presents the case of an actual Taiwanese semiconductor assembly and testing manufacturer. Three major bottleneck manufacturing processes, namely, die bond, wire bond, and molding, are analyzed to determine how to use finite resources to achieve the optimal capacity allocation. A medium-term capacity allocation planning model is developed by considering the optimal total profit to satisfy the promised volume demanded by customers and to obtain the best migration decision among production lines for machines and tools. Finally, sensitivity analysis based on the actual case is provided to explore the effect of various parameter levels.

Keywords: Capacity planning, capacity allocation, machine migration, resource configuration.

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Authors: Yurii Bloshko, Oksana Olar

Abstract:

This paper presents the analysis of six different classes of Petri nets: fuzzy Petri nets (FPN), generalized fuzzy Petri nets (GFPN), parameterized fuzzy Petri nets (PFPN), T2GFPN, flexible generalized fuzzy Petri nets (FGFPN), binary Petri nets (BPN). These classes were simulated in the special software PNeS® for the analysis of its pros and cons on the example of models which are dedicated to the decision-making process of passenger transport logistics. The paper includes the analysis of two approaches: when input values are filled with the experts’ knowledge; when fuzzy expectations represented by output values are added to the point. These approaches fulfill the possibilities of triples of functions which are replaced with different combinations of t-/s-norms.

Keywords: Fuzzy petri net, intelligent computational techniques, knowledge representation, triangular norms.

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Authors: Praveen Boinee, Alessandro De Angelis, Gian Luca Foresti

Abstract:

Leo Breimans Random Forests (RF) is a recent development in tree based classifiers and quickly proven to be one of the most important algorithms in the machine learning literature. It has shown robust and improved results of classifications on standard data sets. Ensemble learning algorithms such as AdaBoost and Bagging have been in active research and shown improvements in classification results for several benchmarking data sets with mainly decision trees as their base classifiers. In this paper we experiment to apply these Meta learning techniques to the random forests. We experiment the working of the ensembles of random forests on the standard data sets available in UCI data sets. We compare the original random forest algorithm with their ensemble counterparts and discuss the results.

Keywords: Random Forests [RF], ensembles, UCI.

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Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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Authors: R. Dariani, S. Schmidt, R. Kasper

Abstract:

Based on a non-linear single track model which describes the dynamics of vehicle, an optimal path planning strategy is developed. Real time optimization is used to generate reference control values to allow leading the vehicle alongside a calculated lane which is optimal for different objectives such as energy consumption, run time, safety or comfort characteristics. Strict mathematic formulation of the autonomous driving allows taking decision on undefined situation such as lane change or obstacle avoidance. Based on position of the vehicle, lane situation and obstacle position, the optimization problem is reformulated in real-time to avoid the obstacle and any car crash.

Keywords: Autonomous driving, Obstacle avoidance, Optimal control, Path planning.

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